West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 11:29

Singha ji,
You have mistaken west asia dhaaga for Afghanistan thread.

BTW IMHO,
Genius Amreekhans are stuck between Saudi Arabia and Europe. Saudi has increased oil production as per diktats by US to put pressure on Russia wrt Ukraine crisis. In return they want removal of Assad.
With refugees in millions running to Europe and not to Saudi, Europe wants a solution to problems in Syria, with or without Assad.
And Russia, Iran wouldnt let Assad fall.
Interesting Geopolitics.

arun · Post by **arun** » 30 Sep 2015 11:40

Philip wrote:More trouble brewing for the Saudis.A palace revolt is a distinct possibility from this report.
With the official death toll of the Haj "crush" now over 1000 ,and a war taking its toll in the Yemen,where a "wedding party" were the latest victims of Saudi bombings,the new king is on shaky ground .

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... ing-salman

Saudi royal calls for regime change in Riyadh

Plea by grandson of state’s founder comes as falling oil prices, war in Yemen and loss of faith in authority buffet leadership of King Salman

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman. One Saudi royal claims that the king’s son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, ‘is ruling the country’.

A senior Saudi prince has launched an unprecedented call for change in the country’s leadership, as it faces its biggest challenge in years in the form of war, plummeting oil prices and criticism of its management of Mecca, scene of last week’s hajj tragedy.

The prince, one of the grandsons of the state’s founder, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, has told the Guardian that there is disquiet among the royal family – and among the wider public – at the leadership of King Salman, who acceded the throne in January.

The prince, who is not named for security reasons, wrote two letters earlier this month calling for the king to be removed.

“The king is not in a stable condition and in reality the son of the king [Mohammed bin Salman] is ruling the kingdom,” the prince said. “So four or possibly five of my uncles will meet soon to discuss the letters. They are making a plan with a lot of nephews and that will open the door. A lot of the second generation is very anxious.”

“The public are also pushing this very hard, all kinds of people, tribal leaders,” the prince added. “They say you have to do this or the country will go to disaster.”

A clutch of factors are buffeting King Salman, his crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, and the deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.

A double tragedy in Mecca – the collapse of a crane that killed more than 100, followed by a stampede last week that killed 700 – has raised questions not just about social issues, but also about royal stewardship of the holiest site in Islam.

As usual, the Saudi authorities have consistently shrugged off any suggestion that a senior member of the government may be responsible for anything that has gone wrong.

Local people, however, have made clear on social media and elsewhere that they no longer believe such claims.

“The people inside [the kingdom] know what’s going on but they can’t say. The problem is the corruption in using the resources of the country for building things in the right form,” said an activist who lives in Mecca but did not want to be named for fear of repercussions.

“Unfortunately the government points the finger against the lower levels, saying for example: ‘Where are the ambulances? Where are the healthcare workers?’ They try to escape the real reason of such disaster,” he added.

Saudi religious and political legitimacy is predicated on their claim that they manage the holy sites properly and make them safely accessible for all Muslims. Since there are no monarchies in Islam and Saudi Arabia itself is not mentioned in the Qur’an, legitimacy is a fundamental issue for the Saudis and the Hajj disasters have been extremely damaging.

But just as urgent is oil, the price of which has dropped more than 50% in the past year. On Monday, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia has withdrawn as much as $70bn (£46bn) from overseas investment funds to shore up its fiscal position in the face of tumbling oil prices

According to Alastair Newton, director of Alavan Business Advisory, Saudi Arabia’s published budget this year was based on oil trading at about $90 a barrel. But because of costly ad hoc items such as royal largesse after King Salman’s succession, the war in Yemen, and domestic security against the Isis threat, the fiscal position is only in balance at about $110.

With oil now trading below $50, fiscal weakness is starting to tell. The Saudi benchmark Tadawul All Share index has fallen by more than 30% in the past 12 months.

“They have enough reserves to sustain this situation for at least one year although it is very costly for them,” said Khairallah Khairallah, a former managing editor of the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper.

The International Monetary Fund is already predicting Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit to exceed $107bn this year. Yet the budget announced for next year has marginally increased.

“The king is in charge of oil policy in the kingdom together with his son Mohammed bin Salman. Mohammed bin Salman is also responsible for [state oil firm] Aramco. The crown prince [Mohammed bin Nayef] is mainly focused on security. These are the main players in Saudi Arabia. They divide the responsibility,” said Khairallah Khairallah.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a new arrival to the Saudi senior leadership team but has already become one of the most controversial.

Although still very young by Saudi standards – officially 35 but rumoured to be much younger – he holds a multitude of posts including minister of defence and chair of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs, which is the country’s main economic policymaking committee.

This makes him responsible for many of Saudi Arabia’s problems, above all the war in neighbouring Yemen, where rebel Houthis have come under attack from Saudi aircraft and ground forces.

Many Saudis are sickened by the sight of the Arab world’s richest country pummelling its poorest, and as the cost in lives and treasure grows, criticism is mounting that Prince Mohammed bin Salman– whose unofficial nickname is “Reckless” – rushed in without a proper military strategy or an exit plan.

Smoke billows upward after airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition on Houthi rebels in Sana’a, Yemen. Photograph: Yahya Arhab/EPA

“This is a war against the Yemeni nation and against Yemen becoming independent,” said Sgt Maj Dakheel bin Naser Al Qahtani, a former head of air force operations at King Abdulaziz airbase, Dhahran, who defected from the Saudi armed forces last year.

“It has no legitimate political foundation and it is not what the people want,” he said. “Ninety per cent of people in Saudi Arabia don’t want this to happen, exactly the opposite of what the media shows.

“It has come about due to the absence of a national citizens’ establishment in Saudi Arabia and because Al Saud have put their own interests ahead of the national interest.”

And so all is not well in the Saudi Barbaria’s ruling Al Saud family.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 12:00

IT is very easy to enter into a conflict and very difficult to exit out of it as recent US operation in Afghanistan and Iraq has shown , what was suppose to be a quick short war got into long drawn out never ending affair with consquence all to see.

Russians must have a EXIT STRATEGY before they go into it , else this might be a long drawn out affair although with so many regional players its scope might vary.

The Syrian war would be polarising for sure even though every one claims to want to fight ISIS but every one is there for their own geo-political agenda and larger game plans and less for ISIS

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 12:01

Pentagon to open ‘lines of communication’ with Russia over strikes in Syria

amit · Post by **amit** » 30 Sep 2015 12:04

Austin, I doubt Russia is going to get into a hot war in Syria. All this is posturing to take pressure off Ukraine IMO. Once a deal is stuck then Russia will leave the mess to the folks who started it in the first place. Your link immediate above this seems to indicate a deal may be in the offing.

PS: But in cases like this the Law of Unintended Consequences always comes into play and so... Personally I would love to see Cheen getting involved in a hot war. It would be a good chance to observe the glorious PLA, PLAN and PLAAF in action.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 12:06

amit wrote:Austin, I doubt Russia is going to get into a hot war in Syria. All this is posturing to take pressure off Ukraine IMO. Once a deal is stuck then Russia will leave the mess to the folks who started it in the first place. Your link immediate above this seems to indicate a deal may be in the offing.

Putin has asked parliament for deploying troops abroad is Flash News , While it could mean many thing , lets see how things shape up.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 12:07

WikiLeaks cables implicate UK & Saudi Arabia in secret deal to secure UNHRC seats

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 12:23

Defence News has put up Israel assessment of the entire thing , They are blaming Obama for this for his lack of decision

Russian Bear Supplants American Eagle in Syria, Beyond

TEL AVIV, Israel — American failure to militate against a Syrian regime deploying chemical weapons, barrel bombs and creating a deluge of refugees has all but paved the way for Moscow to reassert a Soviet-like presence in the war-wracked country and the warm Mediterranean waters beyond.

That, in a nutshell, is the widely held assessment of Israeli policymakers and experts here, who blame Washington for creating yet another layer of complexity in Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, the Tehran-sponsored Lebanese Shiite organization battling on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

“The American eagle has failed miserably against the Syrian lion,” a senior Israeli officer said of Assad, Arabic for lion. “Now we all have to contend with the Russian bear, which appears to be here to stay with boots and everything else on the ground, in the air and at sea.”

The officer and others interviewed insisted that the sudden operational need to engage tactically with Russia will never develop into anything like the strategic cooperation Israel has institutionalized over decades with its preeminent patron in Washington. Experts here also expressed empathy for the hard choices US President Barack Obama has had to make in a politically divisive domestic climate, decisions which, in retrospect, have adversely affected US influence in Syria and the region.

That said, more than three years after Russia stepped in to act on Obama’s red lines regarding the regime’s use of chemical weapons — and amid increasingly impotent calls for Assad to step aside — experts here note that Israel and Washington’s closest European allies are looking again to Russian President Vladimir Putin to impose order in the country still known as Syria, but increasingly controlled by Sunni Islamic radicals from the Nusra Front and the Islamic State.

With aerial and satellite imagery attesting to an unabated Russian buildup of manpower, facilities and front-line materiel in Syria, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier offered overt support for Moscow’s muscle-flexing.

“I strongly welcome the fact … about the growing military engagement of Russia in the region,” Steinmeier said at a Sept. 20 joint press conference in Berlin with US Secretary of State John Kerry.

A day later, amid confirmation of yet another Russian aerial deployment to Syria’s coastal airport in Latakia, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rushed to Moscow with senior military leaders in attempts to secure “a joint mechanism for preventing misunderstandings” between Israeli and Russian forces.

As a result of the Sept. 21 Putin-Netanyahu meeting, it was decided that vice chiefs of staff from the respective militaries would meet in early October to devise a detailed mechanism for so-called deconfliction “in the aerial, naval and electro-magnetic realm,” an Israeli official said.

In a statement following his meeting at the Kremlin, Netanyahu flagged “the importance of preventing misunderstandings” with Russian forces that may be operating in close proximity to Israeli forces. In a not-so-cryptic reference to multiple attacks on weapon convoys, weapon depots and sources of fire directed at Israel from Syrian soil in recent years, Netanyahu said he impressed upon Putin that Israel would not allow Iran-backed Hezbollah to open “a second terror front” against Israel on the Golan Heights.

“Israel is taking action and when it does, it is important for everyone, including Russia, to know how we are taking action. It is no less important in order to prevent misunderstandings, and it is worthwhile to do so before they occur and not afterward.”

Such deconfliction will be increasingly necessary, Israeli sources said, given Russia’s fortified naval presence in the area.

On Sept. 24, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced it would conduct extensive, month-long live-fire drills in the eastern Mediterranean, “including rocket and artillery fire at sea and airborne targets.”

In its statement, the ministry noted that the exercise had been planned for nearly a year, and was not linked to the current crisis in Syria, yet most here viewed it as yet another show of muscle flexing by Moscow.

Ya’akov Amidror, a retired Israeli major general and former national security adviser to Netanyahu, insisted that planned deconfliction mechanisms are tactical and do not imply any agreement on Israel’s part for strategic coordination with Russia.

“In areas where more than one state is operating in the same theater, you need deconfliction,” he said.

According to Amidror, the “vacuum” created by American policies in the region has allowed — even compelled — Russia to reassert itself. “This is a new reality that we all must internalize,” he said.

“It doesn’t mean we’re giving license to Assad and his murderous, Iranian-backed regime. But we need the Russians to understand that our interests in Syria are very narrow. We can’t allow the Syrians and the Iranians to move game-changing weapons to Hezbollah or to build the infrastructure to attack us.”

Amos Gilad, the Defense Ministry’s longtime director of policy and political military affairs, estimates that Assad controls barely 25 percent of Syria's once sovereign territory, with the Islamic State battling the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front for control of the Golan.

“To our north, there is a country that was once called Syria. But Syria has disappeared. There is no Syria, and I don’t think it ever will return,” Gilad said.

Dima Adamsky, associate professor at Herzliya Inter-Disciplinary Center’s Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, said Putin seeks to play a constructive role in the chaos that is Syria and the region beyond. In an article in Foreign Affairs and a subsequent interview last week, Adamsky said he expected Putin to push for a UN mandate to forge and help secure a diplomatic solution for Syria which, despite US objections, will include Assad and Iran.

Beyond Putin’s desire to regain a foothold in the region and fortify Assad, a strategic ally, Adamsky cited Russia’s “very real strategic concern” in stemming the spread of Islamic jihadists who may return to wage insurgencies in Russia and its interests in Central Asia and the North Caucasus.

Moreover, Moscow’s buildup in Syria allows it to cultivate new alliances and arms markets in the region while rehabilitating its pariah status in the West due to land grabs in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

Adamsky also cited Russia’s new naval doctrine, published earlier this year, which prescribes a permanent presence in the Mediterranean, with the naval facility at Syria’s port town of Tartus playing a critical role.

“Syria used to be the Soviet naval center of gravity during the late Cold War, from which it launched actions vis a vis the US Sixth Fleet. It’s now the only overseas base of the Russian Navy outside of the Russian Federation, and a resurged presence there is definitely part of their plan,” he said.

According to the Russian expert, who routinely plays the role of Putin in wargame exercises in Israel, Russia’s return to the region is unstoppable, and it is up to Washington, NATO, Israel and others in the region to adapt their policies accordingly.

“Putin is here to stay… Russia’s doctrine prescribes a penetration into warm Mediterranean waters, a foothold in the Middle East and this will force Israel, the US, Turkey and other actors to rearrange and rethink how they’ve been engaging Syria since the end of the Cold War,” he said.

By his military buildup in Syria, Putin is making “a seemingly very elegant move” that could prove beneficial over time, Adamsky said.

“It enables him to address several issues across different domains: He fortifies Assad, battles the Islamic States, sustains arms and energy markets, and is in a position to open new relationships and alliances in the region. And through the Russian Orthodox church, he can portray himself as the savior of the persecuted Christian minority in the region.”

At the same time, he noted that Putin “is probably aware of the limits of power projection and the risks of intervention.”

He added that Moscow is mindful of not overextending itself “as the US did in the region and as Russia itself did in Afghanistan, Chechnya and now in Ukraine.”

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 12:25

I think Israel will never forgive Obama for two things

1 ] For dilly-dallying on Syria and for not removing Assad from Power via Military Operation with GCC when the time right

2 ] For letting Iran come to terms with US and other on Nuclear Issue i.e the Nuclear Deal

Both this factor has massively caused a change in calculus for Israel and a lot of heartburn in Israel Political and Intelligence/Military Establishment

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 12:33

1) why didnt israel remove Assad himself if they felt so hot?

US would need a OIF style buildup to have removed him from power 4 years ago.

israel has been pampered and spoilt like brats, free $4 bil of arms aid every year, easy access to tech , easy access to VC money, uber protection...they should grow up and learn to solve their own problems instead of expecting big daddy to tackle everyone that dont like - and the dont like list seems like a long one.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 12:53

Singha wrote:1) why didnt israel remove Assad himself if they felt so hot?

Thats easiest to answer , Israel expects US to do its dirty work and knowing its clout in US politics they thought it would be easy thing to do specially when GCC and Israel had the same goal.

Obama proved a very hard nut to crack for Israel , Rarely I remember POTUS would go against any thing that would be perceived as "Acting Against Israel Interest"

US would need a OIF style buildup to have removed him from power 4 years ago.

Yes , Plus Obama came at the time with US public were War Fatigue after Bush long drawn out affair in Iraq and Afg

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 30 Sep 2015 13:02

Yes, GD is right in my opinion. The Israelis overplayed their hand - both in Iran and in Syria. Obama played them right back, and I must say in a quite sophisticated way from the perspective of HIS administration's term. All the right noises were made. The only time he went out on a limb was for Iran, and that move will undoubtedly prove to the benefit of the US. It is a pity really, for it seems the Israelis simply called the regional developments since the Arab Spring wrong, as well as global developments. Surprising. But they are not at a major disadvantage in any real way, at least for the foreseeable future. At the moment, Israel should get close to everybody they can, in any way they can. Regular programming will return with the next US administration.

srin · Post by **srin** » 30 Sep 2015 13:16

amit wrote:Austin, I doubt Russia is going to get into a hot war in Syria. All this is posturing to take pressure off Ukraine IMO. Once a deal is stuck then Russia will leave the mess to the folks who started it in the first place. Your link immediate above this seems to indicate a deal may be in the offing.

PS: But in cases like this the Law of Unintended Consequences always comes into play and so... Personally I would love to see Cheen getting involved in a hot war. It would be a good chance to observe the glorious PLA, PLAN and PLAAF in action.

I'd love to Cheen to get into action with "boots on the ground". I'd read an article on who wins guerilla wars (and need to dig it up), but here's what I remember:
a) The definite loser is the country where it is fought
b) The other losers are ones doing the fighting
c) The winners are those in the neighbourhood who don't fight or directly participate but help both sides or atleast the richer side.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 13:28

Russia Approves Use of Armed Forces in Syria

The decision includes only the use of the Air Force and does not foresee any ground troops operations, Kremlin Administration Aide Sergei Ivanov said Wednesday.

“We’re talking exclusively about operations of Russia’s Air Force, as our president has already said, the use of armed forces on the ground theater of military operations is excluded. The military goal of the operations is exclusively air support of the Syrian government forces in their fight against the Islamic State,” Ivanov said.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has turned to Russia with a request for military assistance, according to Ivanov.

“I would like to inform you that the president of the Syrian Arab Republic turned to the leadership of our country with a request to provide military assistance, so we may say that terrorism needs to be fought, efforts need to be combined, but it is still necessary to observe the norms of international law,” Ivanov told journalists.

Kremlin will inform foreign partners of the decision made by the parliament of using Russian armed forces abroad during the day through foreign ministry channels, and the military will do the same through their channels.

According to Ivanov, the decision was made to help Syria and protect Russian interests.

"First and, probably, the most important, we are talking about Syria alone, and we are not talking about reaching some foreign policy goals, satisfying some ambitions which our western partners accuse us of, we are talking about Russia's national interests alone," Ivanov told journalists.

Ivanov said that the Air Force operations would be temporary, but was unable to say exactly how long they would be in play.

“In regard to the timeline, the Russian Air Force operation, of course, cannot last forever and has a definite time period, but what the time period is, for example, in regard to the number of days as well as telling you how many aircraft will be used and which armament will be used by our Air Force, I cannot say right now for obvious reasons,” Ivanov said.

Commenting on the airstrikes carried out by Western powers, Ivanov said they were not in line with international law.

"As you all know very well, the United States… is launching airstrikes on the territory of Syria and Iraq, and maybe other Middle Eastern States. Recently France has joined the same analogous actions, Australia and a number of other coutnries are talking about the same thing.. I would like to note one principal moment — these actions are being carried out in circumvention of international law," Ivanov told the press.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150930/ ... z3nD6nKUcp

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Sep 2015 14:19

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 73091.html

Russia joins fight against Isis: Parliament approves Vladimir Putin's request for military intervention
Fighter planes have already been sent to Bashar al-Assad's strongholds in Syria and the Russian President has discussed the issue with Barack Obama

Lizzie Dearden
Wednesday 30 September 2015

Russia’s parliament has formally approved military intervention against Isis after the country sent some of its most advanced fighter planes to Syria.

The Federation Council considered a request by Vladimir Putin to deploy the country’s armed forces abroad, according to the country’s constitution.

State media quoted a Kremlin aide saying only air force missions, rather than a ground operation, are planned.
USA: We're ready to work with Russia but not Assad over Syria - Obama

“Russia will inform all partners and allies of the decision late today,” a report by the Sputnik news agency said. .

The Russian government has also announced the creation of an “information centre” in Baghdad to co-ordinate anti-Isis operations with officers from Iran, Iraq, and Syria.

Its main stated goals are to provide reconnaissance on the number militants, their weapons and movements in the so-called Islamic State, with operations beginning in the coming months.

The last time the Russian President requested approval for military intervention from the upper house was shortly before the annexation of Crimea in March 2014.

He had hosted a meeting of the Russian security council at his official residence outside of Moscow to discuss terrorism and extremism on Tuesday night.

Today’s request came after Mr Putin’s bilateral meeting with Barack Obama on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, where the pair discussed Russia's recent military build-up in Syria.

It had sent at least 28 planes, reportedly including six of its most advanced Su-34 Fullback bombers, to President Bashar al-Assad’s strongholds.
34-russia-syria-ap.jpg
This September 2015 satellite image shows Russian transport aircraft, helicopters, tanks, trucks and armed personnel carriers at an air base in Latakia province, Syria (AP)

Monitors have reported Russian planes carrying out air strikes, including on the besieged Kweris air base, although they were believed to have been piloted by the Syrian air force.

Russia’s support for the Syrian regime has so far been a source of deep discord on the UN Security Council.

Its repeated vetoes, mainly on intervention in Syria or calling for investigations into alleged atrocities committed by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, have led to criticism that the Kremlin is undermining the council.

PS:To be fair to the Israelis,there have been deep divisions about for/mil policy between Bibi N and the intel/mil community. Many prominent Israelis including former intel heads have differed with him on Iran,Syria,etc.They have taken a more PS:pragmatic view of the entire ME situ.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 14:36

Surrounded by fire eating war mongers, Obama`s policy has been surprisingly sane. He refused to bomb Syria even when all propaganda with the chemical weapons usage was hot.
He has also refused to arm Ukraine. Signed a deal with Iran. Also reestablished ties with Cuba.

In west Asia, there is only as much he can do. It is the Bush burden of Gulf war 2 that he has to carry. That was one senseless war that has completely unravelled the middle east and led to rise of hostilities all around.
One is surprised at Israeli insistence on removal of Assad. Would they rather have their border with ISIS ?! Its probably the Hezbollah being armed by Syria and Iran, that they want destroyed, but still.

The difference between a real army and the forces in Syria and Iraq that ISIS has encountered should be recognized. Generally, nonstate actors are less dangerous than states. Only states can develop nuclear weapons. Nonstate actors usually do not possess airplanes, heavy artillery, and tanks that can cause great damage. Since they are Iranian proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas are not exceptions to this rule, because they have been endowed with destructive capabilities, such as missiles, by a state. Moreover, they have secured almost exclusive control over a piece of territory.

Israeli argument. Nice article from here -
http://www.bu.edu/today/2015/pov-isis-n ... to-israel/

POV: ISIS No Threat to Israel
Fears that group may be bigger menace than Iran are ridiculous

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 30 Sep 2015 14:42

Who was behind pulling down Gaddafi? I am no fan of his, but every aira gaira nathu (including the supposedly peace loving Sweden) went and used it for target practice. Syria was another such unrest which did not go as envisioned. All that BO has done is realized US limitations and put a stop on further adventurism. In BO first term, peace prize went and distorted his vision. Courting India after doing all the wrong things in his previous term and uttering K word, is astonishing.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 14:46

IMHO, the Libyan misadventure was more `made in Europe`.
I am only saying that, Obama seems to be saner than other absolutely retarded presidents that Khan has had for some years.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 15:25

http://www.hngn.com/articles/134691/201 ... argest.htm

The Islamic State group (ISIS) is planning to use nuclear weapons to launch a global assault on anyone who holds differing religious beliefs – all in the name of worshipping Allah, according to German journalist Jurgen Todenhofer, who in 2014 was the first western reporter allowed to embed with the terrorist outfit and live to tell about it, spending 10 days in Mosul in northern Iraq with its fighters.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 15:58

Check the early video of Russsian deployment in Syrian Bashar Airport , Shows aircraft in cammo and choppers etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=151&v=sVJQK2znn2k

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Sep 2015 17:30

Why The Collapse Of Saudi Arabia Is Inevitable - By Nafeez Ahmed at Middle East Eye

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 19:53

this video purports to show some ISIS fighters living in a house of sorts, busy recording a pair of Su24 flying a bit far away, when some other unuseen a/c bombs their location, after a few shouts of AoA and AoA they realize they are ok and come out

it was uploaded about 3 hours ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXkmh4Sh-JM

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 19:58

houthis have killed a saudi army brigadier general and shown his rank patches in a uploaded video. Saudi news says he died in some border action.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVSDxPo7KNs
here they are crawling all over a demolished KSA armed convoy. the abrams looks intact but abandoned by the crew

here another abandoned abrams is blown sky high
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xjx88Vbb3XY
this may be the same tank a while earlier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zOzl-hTCAU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgdwxqwaK34

man sneaks up on a tank and blows it up with a glued explosive..full throated AoA cries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNMjSTGPteE

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Sep 2015 20:11

Bullying South China Sea neighbors is one thing but getting mixed up in the Middle East cesspool is something else altogether.

AFAIK, China has bases (to support commercial/ construction projects) in Chad, Somalia, Sudan etc. Probably in Iran and Syria as well. So (a) they CAN refuel/resupply and (b) they must. Warships may be warning to not mess with them.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 20:35

china has logistical bases and 1000s of workers in almost every african and middle east country. they can obtain supplies anywhere including tartus itself.

but as usual they will probably want others(russia) to do the heavy lifting while trying to obtain any side benefits and show the flag.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Sep 2015 20:39

Austin wrote:I think Israel will never forgive Obama for two things

1 ] For dilly-dallying on Syria and for not removing Assad from Power via Military Operation with GCC when the time right

2 ] For letting Iran come to terms with US and other on Nuclear Issue i.e the Nuclear Deal

Both this factor has massively caused a change in calculus for Israel and a lot of heartburn in Israel Political and Intelligence/Military Establishment

Cry me a river. Maybe the Jews should update their foreign policy and recognize the Saudi axis as the bigger civilizational threat. Isreal's support for the House of Saud, Qatar and the other nasty Gulf kingdoms has helped bolster the growth of ISIS and other Sunni militant groups in the region. They're on the wrong side, and if they're too stupid to get on the right side, to hell with them.

Multatuli · Post by **Multatuli** » 30 Sep 2015 20:51

Singha pointed out how vulnerable/exposed those Russian aircraft and helicopters are. If one of the terrorist groups manages to get close enough to target the air base with mortars, anti-tank missiles or RPG's... The Russians must have great confidence in the perimeter defense of that base.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 30 Sep 2015 20:54

Syrian T 72's in urban warfare with ISIS (longish video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08Afc-OGb8U

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 21:00

Confirmation that ruaf strikes starred. As expected they are focussing on nearby threats like Saudi paid militias than far off Isis
http://m.smh.com.au/world/russias-air-s ... jykhi.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Sep 2015 21:04

CNN is pissed heh
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/30/polit ... ikes-isis/

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Sep 2015 21:24

What's the main thing keeping India out of this fight? Is it logistics, or political considerations?

It seems to me India's missing an opportunity here, especially if the Chinese join in. This is a perfect environment to test our standoff strike capabilities at little risk to ourselves. The IAF would operate from Russian-controlled Syrian bases and restrict their aircraft to high-altitude bombing only. The IN could send a few destroyers and find out just how accurate our Brahmos and Klub cruise missiles are in combat conditions. Even if the strikes were largely symbolic, it would still provide invaluable experience for our armed forces.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 22:19

8 ISIS targets hit during 20 combat flights in Syria – Russian military

http://www.rt.com/news/317101-russia-is ... elligence/

Russia has struck eight Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) targets in Syria, the country’s Defense Ministry said, adding that civilian infrastructure was avoided during the operations.

“Today, Russian aerospace force jets delivered pinpoint strikes on eight ISIS terror group targets in Syria. In total, 20 flights were made,” spokesperson for the Russian Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov, said.

“As a result, arms and fuel depots and military equipment were hit. ISIS coordination centers in the mountains were totally destroyed,” he added.

This seems official Video

srin · Post by **srin** » 30 Sep 2015 22:25

Except while taking another tank, the main gun is a big drawback for a tank. The turret traverses very slowly. They will probably have better impact if they replace the gun with a 30 mm cannon of a BMP-2.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 22:29

CNN/US seems unhappy over strikes , claiming US is not leading this and Russians are not bombing ISIS but anti-Assad forces.

Unhappy over Iraq/Iran/Syria/Russia intelligence gathering collaboration and that US is left out.

50 Odd senator wrote to Obama , US should take lead and find a peaceful solution now that Russia started bombing

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 22:31

Y. Kanan wrote:What's the main thing keeping India out of this fight? Is it logistics, or political considerations?

It seems to me India's missing an opportunity here, especially if the Chinese join in. This is a perfect environment to test our standoff strike capabilities at little risk to ourselves. The IAF would operate from Russian-controlled Syrian bases and restrict their aircraft to high-altitude bombing only. The IN could send a few destroyers and find out just how accurate our Brahmos and Klub cruise missiles are in combat conditions. Even if the strikes were largely symbolic, it would still provide invaluable experience for our armed forces.

India does not join such operation unless approved by UN and even then Air Strikes has been so far no , We just operated some Mi-35 in some african country under UN operation.

Its also political they wont find any support in Parliament for such strikes

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 22:49

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/09 ... .html?_r=0

US Warns Russia Against Striking Non-IS Groups in Syria

"Moreover, we have also made clear that we would have grave concerns should Russia strike areas where ISIL and al-Qaida affiliated targets are not operating,"

"Free Syrian Army" has 3-4 people remaining after getting killed by or donating weapons to Al Nusra. What are the names of some other non-ISIS, non al Qaeda militias in Syria?!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Sep 2015 22:54

From Sec Carter and US Panalist on CNN , There seems to smack a sense of Arrogance.

Its like saying we feel where you are attacking its not ISIS position so you are not bombing ISIS.

Well I suppose they would like the Russian to bomb on US supplied and approved list of what they think ISIS is

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 22:59

Russia may have targeted Jaysh al-Fatah as they are the rebel group that poses the greatest threat to Latakia, the regime's heartland and location of the Russian controlled port of Tartous.
Some background on who this group are: Jaysh al-Fateh - the Army of Conquest - is a broad alliance of hardline Islamist groups, which includes both Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham.
In March this group captured Idlib, making it the second provincial capital to fall to the opposition since the start of the war.
Since then they have been effective in fighting the regime in Idlib and it looks like they may be able to push on government strongholds in central Syria and Latakia.
One interesting note - the Russians appear to have been watching this group for a long time: A year ago much of the Ahrar al-Sham leadership was wiped out by an explosion that took place where all the commanders had gathered.
A Syrian businessman who has close connections with the government in Damascus told me yesterday that this was the regime's doing, and came from a tip by Russian intelligence.

One can only wonder about the reason for khujli in Washington. Are they supporting Jaish al fatah, Al Nusra etc.?!
from here - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -live.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Sep 2015 23:09

Al Nusra is a Washington front.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 30 Sep 2015 23:58

ramana wrote:Al Nusra is a Washington front.

They fought with FSA. Actually wiped thm out. Next batch handed them weapons.

The Americans are confused. So no wonder they are confusing us SDREs too.