The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Oct 2015 03:31

ISIS/Taliban tactic of calculated terror is an old Mongol technique to make the defenders vulnerable and weak.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Oct 2015 04:25

Iran airs unseen footage of secret underground missile base

Located at a depth of 500 meters under the mountains, the footage shows a very long tunnel which appears to be about 10 meters high. It is one of many missile bases in Iran, according to the Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guards' aerospace division.

"The Islamic republic's long-range missile bases are stationed and ready under the high mountains in all the country's provinces and cities," he said as quoted by the Guards' website.

"This is a sample of our massive missile bases," he said, adding that "a new and advanced generation of long-range liquid and solid fuel missiles" will replace the current weapons in 2016.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Oct 2015 05:10

Interesting timing. That is going to make Nut&Yahoo sooo happy. But why now? All indications were that Nut&Yahoo and Comrade Vlad are beer buddies and all.

Of course it will do wonders for BO's standing with the Israeli-American community.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 15 Oct 2015 05:36

Like some us including Singhaji predicted long time back. Iran will be at our doorstep soon. When Pakistan goes beyond the khichdi state and balkanizes we'll have to keep the Persians out of Balochistan. We also have a huge shia population so they will have some leverage. We will be competitors in the long term. Sunni era is coming to an end.

They're smart and are investing in science and tech and will have formidable array of advanced weaponry including ballistic missiles in the near future.

We'll have to keep an eye on their influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan itself. They also have a sizable shia minority.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 06:48

the relatively secular shia countries like syria, libya, lebanon, iraq, iran were better prepared educationally and culturally to participate in the world economy. its a pity the first 4 have been destroyed

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Oct 2015 07:38

Basically all of Middle Eastern Islam has been reduced to hordes of screaming savages, all the culture and civilization and all the Moderate Middle Class if it existed, now destroyed. Wonder what Jordan is - aren't they mostly shia?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Oct 2015 08:03

Jordan is Sunni.
On NPR an expert was saying King is a descendant of prophet !

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 15 Oct 2015 08:20

^^^Yes that is true. Before the sauds took over the Hejaz the ancestors of the present king of Jordan were the rulers of the Hejaz and consequently guardians of the two holy places of Islam. Also AFAIK Libya is a sunni country.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Oct 2015 08:21

Singha wrote:the relatively secular shia countries like syria, libya, lebanon, iraq, iran were better prepared educationally and culturally to participate in the world economy. its a pity the first 4 have been destroyed

On one plane of reality, it is Shia-Sunni and the previous hypothesis we discussed that Sunni axis enables western imperialism (including that of USD) of which Israel is party to.
However, on another plan, this is about next 1000+ year civilizational battle. Sunnis bring zilch to the civilizational table (goat phucking technology does not count as contribution). It is Shia countries and people that were the cradles of civilization in that part of the world if only they can come out of that slamic yoke. It is another few centuries worth of project to bring them to realize their true background which is indistinguishable from Indic core. In OIT thread, we went thru the Behistun inscription and how it closely resembles Sanskrit (even to normal people like me). It is Indian institutional inability to study this further and certify that is indeed Sanskrit. and host of other monuments in that part of the world.

West is hell bent on completely removing that past out of Shia countries and making them orphans (of whatever that is left). Repeated iconoclasm by US, UK, and ISIS within Iraq, Syria, Lebanon are testament to it.

We should also be open to the possibility that all this is part of Israeli geographic expansion project that in turn makes western model more robust.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Oct 2015 08:22

UlanBatori wrote:Basically all of Middle Eastern Islam has been reduced to hordes of screaming savages, all the culture and civilization and all the Moderate Middle Class if it existed, now destroyed. Wonder what Jordan is - aren't they mostly shia?

UB ji, in case you missed, see this post of mine.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Oct 2015 08:31

Singha wrote:the relatively secular shia countries like syria, libya, lebanon, iraq, iran were better prepared educationally and culturally to participate in the world economy. its a pity the first 4 have been destroyed

Libya is Sunni.

Don't forget Gen. Wesley Clark's confirmation in the interview and reference to destroying 7 countries in 5 years. The last of the 7 countries is Iran. That is why it is showing West that it has second strike capability with several of the underground missile bases.

Two articles from Counterpunch that I posted earlier give good idea of the overall plot.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 08:45

500meters below rock make its immune to even a direct hit by a n-warhead just as cheyenne mountain NORAD hq. it will shrug off the GBU28 like a mosquito biting a rhinos hide.

impressive piece of work. IDFAF just got shown up.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 15 Oct 2015 08:49

>>Wonder what Jordan is - aren't they mostly shia?

Sunni, of mainly Palestinian origin. Heavily tribal, with many of the tribes fiercely loyal to the Bani Hashem, of whom the head is the King, a Hashemite. The Bani Hashem were driven out of the Nejd and Hejaz provinces (currently in Saudi Arabia) by the Al Saud family of Saudi Arabia, and this tribe considers itself the rightful governors of that area, via of course its head, the Hashemite King of Jordan King Abdullah. It is entirely another matter that the royal lineage has been thoroughly infused with British (middle and working class) bloodlines, mainly middle or working class, including the current king whose mother is of British origin IIRC.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 15 Oct 2015 09:03

Satya_anveshi wrote:UB ji, in case you missed, see this post of mine.

Syria is a Sunni majority state ruled by Shia Alawite, so I can understand inclusion in Shia camp. Also Hezbollah which is Shia, is the dominant political actor in Lebanon (though the split is equal between Shia and Sunni in population).

But why Yemen? Its majority Sunni and Sunnis lead the government, right?

Why not Azerbaijan, which has Shia majority and govt?

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Oct 2015 09:17

Yemen has thin Sunni majority but Houthis are Shia and currently fighting full might of Saudis.

Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and other CAR countries are not part of this theater and generally don't go crazy over the shia-sunni denominational difference. However, if push comes to shove, they will aid Shia alliance for Iran and Russia.

Iraq itself is major exclusion in the list but that's because nothing can be said about its capabilities given how it was raped first by US and then by ISIS. But it looks like there is hope:
Lavrov: Moscow Helping Fight IS Militants In Iraq

Lavrov said Russia was "doing it with the consent of the government" in Iraq.

He said a new intelligence center in Baghdad currently staffed by Russian, Iraqi, Iranian, and Syrian officials remained open to all interested parties.

A senior lawmaker in Iraq's parliament said on October 13 that Iraq had begun bombing IS militants with help from that intelligence center.

Before leaving Moscow for Finland on October 14, Lavrov said no country besides Syria had asked Russia for direct military support -- but Russia was closely monitoring the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 09:34

the CAR states are firmly in russi camp or under russian boots or both except I think Turkmenistan who is allegedly a hermit kingdom. ofcourse they are also happy to receive chinese investment and kazakhstan already has a pipeline to china.

but Namo has visited them all - Modi’s eight-day visit to the five Central Asian States — Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

turkmens and uzbeks are probably the most pro-russi given their long history with northern alliance.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 15 Oct 2015 09:39

Looks like Damascus itself is not *all clear* yet:
Syrian warplanes step up airstrikes on rebel-held areas in Damascus - Oct 15, 2015

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 09:44

yes there is a alarming presence of rebels in the suburbs of damascus!! Assad had better focus on clearing and securing a wide area around his own capital first.

the so-called major attacks by the syrian army seem to show less boots on ground than a typical IA COIN op which has police/RR swarming in huge numbers around the incident site. this shows how weak Assad has been bled.

iran must have shared their assessment that Assad would fall within one more quarter in moscow.

unlike TSP who has a deployable model of 100,000 jihadis on 3 day notice, the iranians and hizbollah can barely scrape together a few 1000 volunteers to beef him up.

the only route is mobilize Shia militias from southern Iraq but they are held up fighting for their own country in ramadi , baiji and elsewhere.

there is no other populous shia country to help unless Iran deploys units from its regular army which is a big logistical and financial effort.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Oct 2015 11:04

pravula wrote:Top Cuban general, key forces in Syria to aid Assad, Russia, sources say

ADDENDUM:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... ef-visits/

said it had received inside information that Havana was sending the defense officials to operate SOPHISTICATED RUSSIAN TANKS that Moscow has been providing to the Syrian military.

T-90 tanks with SHTORA active protection systems.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Oct 2015 11:07

Robin Cook's theory that Al-Qaeda doesn't exist. Extrapolated to ISIS will mean.

Robin Cook explained this to the world.

http://tapnewswire.com/2014/05/robin-co ... o-alqaeda/

There is NO Isis. It does not exist. It exists in the media like the A-Team or the Hulk. It is imaginary. What exists are mercenaries (250.000 at the start of the war) lead by Cia/Mossad/Mi6 operatives. Exactly like the French minister explained us. War ORGANIZED many years before it started in Syria.

https://youtu.be/Kz-s2AAh06I
French minister, war Syria organized many years in advance.

"I went into the British Army believing that if you want peace you must prepare for war. I believe now that if you prepare thoroughly and efficiently for war, you get war."

- Frederick B. Maurice, Director of Military Operations on the British General Staff

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Oct 2015 11:35

To get clear ground level perspective:
Syria battle maps: As of October 13

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Oct 2015 12:38

Putin: I don't get how US can criticize Russian op in Syria if it refuses dialogue

https://www.rt.com/news/318727-putin-us ... -dialogue/

Washington’s decision to obstruct Russia’s call for diplomatic engagement on Syria is unconstructive and apparently shows a lack of will to negotiate, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

“I don’t really understand how our American partners can criticize Russia’s counterterrorism effort in Syria while refusing direct dialogue on the all-important issue of political settlement,” Putin explained.

Putin was commenting on the refusal by the Obama administration to receive a Russian delegation headed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to discuss the differences the two nations have on the Syrian crisis. The US said it would not talk unless Russia followed Washington’s lead and stopped helping the Syrian government of President Bashar Assad.

"I believe this position to be unconstructive. The weakness of this position is apparently based on a lack of agenda. It seems they have nothing to discuss,” Putin said at a meeting with the Kazakhstan president in Astana

.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 12:44

the Assad govt needs to eliminate the islanded pockets of green rebels near damascus and that area near Jordan bottom left.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Oct 2015 13:13

that map shows clearly that ISIS are in supporting role whereas the so-called rebels are real tip of the sword arm. That is why they had to be bombed silly.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 15 Oct 2015 13:30

UlanBatori wrote:<SNIP> There was no element of surprise in these raids - the copters could be heard and seen miles away. So why did they not fire off these things before starting the attacks I wonder. Are they just hanging around afterwards hoping to draw out the SAMs and blast them? Brave men....

UB sahab - you'd be surprised how these machines can sneak up to you w/o you know a thing!

The noise thing is a giveaway when the chopper is flying relatively high...however, when it is sneaking up on you by flying this low, you won't hear the beast coming till it is pretty close. Another important point is the FOV of the person on ground. As you hear the noise, and as it comes closer, the natural tendency is to look at the horizon all around. But with these beasts flying so low, you won't know it till you're facing that 12.7mm machine gun from pretty close.

I've seen IAF Mi-35 do this routine for a long time (privilege of being a fauji kid

)...IAF chaps train rigorously in the type of low level flying you're seeing in the video.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 13:44

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/world ... .html?_r=0

sharp lessons for india in how to build up expeditionary and modular task forces.

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 15 Oct 2015 14:03

The main source of boots on ground in Syria will be the Hezbollah. I have a lebanese christian colleague, and seems like the Hezbollah has massive support in the region.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Oct 2015 14:11

they have lots of support. Here is a recent funeral for hezbollah commander Hajj Hasan Hussein Al-Hajj in Lebanon.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 15 Oct 2015 14:51

even yakub memon drew such crowds after pest e shaheed

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 15 Oct 2015 15:04

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 376599.cms
Steven Lee Myers & Eric Schmitt,NYT News Service

Russian forces show might in Syria, and west takes notice

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Oct 2015 15:54

Iran ready to send fighters to Syria: Senior official

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Oct 2015 15:56

Pentagon Looks Pissed , Carter says one of the Cruise Missile just missed a flying UAV near by

Carter: Russia Has Created 'New Reality' in Europe

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 17:03

this suits ISIS just fine...syrian army embroiled in a urban war amid heaps of rubble

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcLQEcf9FEY

since all the buildings are ruins anyway, its best to use FAE rockets enmasse from TOS or ask Rus to send a few blackjack sorties daily with a FOAB each - do a industrial scale demolition of any rats crawling in the ruins.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Oct 2015 17:11

TOS can fire at very high angle and land shots barely 1km away.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Oct 2015 17:17

US Irate Over Iraqi Moves to Create Moscow-Baghdad Alliance to Fight ISIL

http://sputniknews.com/analysis/2015101 ... 64811.html

Furthermore, according to the journalist, Iraq's Shiite politicians and Shiite militia "are putting pressure on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, demanding that he make an official request for Russian assistance in the battle against ISIL."

"This," in the journalist's view, has been "caused by many influential Shiite politicians' disappointment over the modest results of the US's year-long bombing campaign against ISIL in Syria and Iraq. They fear that the US is not looking to intervene more actively in the fight against the terrorists, possibly in the aim of strengthening the position of Iraq's Sunni minority."

A Russian intervention in Iraq, Shamir pointed out, would serve a real "insult" to Washington. "The US fought in Iraq twice in the past two decades, the cost of the second war estimated at a trillion and a half dollars. About 5,200 American soldiers were killed and 35,000 more wounded. The results have been quite disappointing. American influence in Iraq is now close to zero."

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Oct 2015 17:21

Thanks for the info on the low-flying helos. I was thinking of the video where the AOAs started when the helos were seen long before they went behind a hill and then came in at low level towards the targets. But that was taken from a high vantage point. HOWEVER, anyone sitting on that hill could clearly see (and hear) them approaching, several minutes before they reached the target zone. Like I said, brave people flying those!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Oct 2015 17:24

Austin wrote:Pentagon Looks Pissed , Carter says one of the Cruise Missile just missed a flying UAV near by

Wonder what crashed in Eyeran. Terrified UAV got "upset"? The quadrotors that we have in Ulan Bator have control systems rigged so that if they are ever turned upside down, they immediately right themselves. We were trying to hold them upside down to make the flow go up

, but immediately, rotors on one side shut down and other side speed up.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 15 Oct 2015 17:58

Austin wrote:US Irate Over Iraqi Moves to Create Moscow-Baghdad Alliance to Fight ISIL

http://sputniknews.com/analysis/2015101 ... 64811.html
Furthermore, according to the journalist, Iraq's Shiite politicians and Shiite militia "are putting pressure on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, demanding that he make an official request for Russian assistance in the battle against ISIL."

.................

If we take a pause from this usual US bashing, Iraqi PM was at as much fault as the one the he is blaming for ISIS growth in Iraq.

His forces never held the ground, often fleeing or surrendering the hard won cities. ISIS in most cases just walk in unchallenged. ISIS's early gains in Iraq were with near zero fighting. His partisan politics also played part in all this mess. He also refused to extend treaty which allowed US troops to stay there longer (although Obama took credit for the withdrawal).

And then Obama (being Obama) refused to talk or support Iraqi when yellow matter was everywhere without ever hitting the fan.

So if Russia thinks that this Russia/Iraq alliance will piss off POTUS, then that's an understatement.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Oct 2015 18:08

^^ The Genesis of Iraq crisis lies in the invasion of GWB , For no rhyme of reason based on Flimsy WMD story.

He may not be a good dictator but he kept Iraq in check much like Saudi or any other Gulf state.

The current crisis the long occupation of iraq by US forces the birth of AQ and now ISIS and the lahks of death just follows that story.

Not to mention US is not willing to take a hardstand on ISIS sponsors namely the GCC and Saudis , IT cant afford to keep its primary client Saudi unhappy

Its a Geopolitical Game and US is just trying to play both sides calling one guy terrorist and the same guy at other place Freedom Fighters.

I should also mention here that the Training for Iraqi Military was provided by US forces and even the so called $500 million training program for fighter in Syria did not do much and they all ran away , it tells you a lot on how they are trained as much about the inviduals , Eventually it was the Hezbollah who has to come to baghdad to defend the city agaist ISIS take over.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Oct 2015 18:23

His forces never held the ground, often fleeing or surrendering the hard won cities. ISIS in most cases just walk in unchallenged.

I do not believe that the US news headlines on these were true. If one read deeper, it appeared that ISIS tactics were tuned to the assurance that there would be **NO** aerial ground-attack support provided to the fixed defenses. So they simply loaded up trucks with explosive and had them driven straight into the city along the roads. The detonations took out the entire city block, rendering all defenders dead or incapacitated. How exactly was the Iraqi Army to defend against these? Oh, we know!

One Phone Call Does It All, No Job Too Big or Small! Just call in USAF/US Army air support. The Apaches. The A-10s. The F-16s. It would have been a turkey shoot. See reports from Syria now about soosai-bum trucks being blown up inside ISIS lines by air support.

BUT.. in Ramadi, as the song goes:

But nobaady answered...
Hwhen Ah called yore naaaaame!

Gross, gross intel failure? Or deliberate orders from DupleeCity? I can't tell, but it sounds like court-martial time if not impeachment time.

The Iraqis were set up. Huge supplies of new M-1 tanks and HumVees and TOWs were all given to them, and at the critical moment the air support was denied. The effects was the intact transfer of all those weapons to the ISIS. Was this the point of the treachery? I don't know. But within hours, it was the ISIS that had all-American armor, artillery and anti-tank weapons, and their lack of an air force was neutralized by the absence of US interest in hitting them from the air.

Or worse.

The air 'support' actually hit the defenders, or reinforcements rushing in in some cases. Or dropped weapons directly to the ISIS. I mean without fuses activated.

AND.. the panicked retreat occurred because the rear echelons were simply taken out by orders.