Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Nov 21, 2015

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 05 Jan 2016 08:43

sukhish wrote:it looks like US is also about to elect it's own version of modi in the form of DT.

What do you mean? And why is this relevant on this thread?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 05 Jan 2016 08:55

sukhish wrote:it looks like US is also about to elect it's own version of modi in the form of DT.

I have deleted the above post of yours as irrelevant to this thread. Please desist from raising irrelevant issues. Take it as an informal warning.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 05 Jan 2016 09:11

shiv wrote:
Mihaylo wrote: ... and even if they go ahead what can they do if the man is armed or out of reach?

Mostly to locate the pigs. Humans can do the rest. From the links posted earlier, it seemed like the pigs were hard to locate in the thick outcrop and 'foresty' areas.

-M

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 05 Jan 2016 09:27

What a lot of posts that seem to be general venting variety, I have been off BRF for long but some things have not changed

. Perhaps we need that whine thread for all the handwringing and headwhacking that used to be there!

Other than the media talking to the SP there does not seem to be any technical information released or leaked in the past 20 odd hours. I think that is a sign that the operation is now close to the end of the mopping up and clearance phase and the investigation phase has gained momentum.

It is interesting to note that the preliminary data that has been uncovered have already been sent to Pakistan. Although there is no public sharing of any expectation that has been set up except for an unsubstantiated report of a deadline of 72 hours being set, it is clearly evident that data has been shared with a purpose.

The only other thing of significance is the structured round of consultation that Sushma Swaraj called for wherein experts have been consulted. To me this points to a possibility of a well thought out multi-front integrated response being developed. It is likely that may involve a gamut of options across all fields.

I hope that there will be some here who will watch out for the actions on the ground in terms of developments int he investigation phase to get some answers to some of the questions that I have listed in my previous post.

If the whine, expression of disappointment, anger at NaMo and his incompetence can be separated out from this thread and the focus reverts on establishing direct Pakistani Army involvement, then the original intent of this thread will be better served.

But then, that is just my thoughts folks. Take it for what it is worth.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 05 Jan 2016 09:28

An option for GoI is to reject this as a terrorist incidence and declare it an attack by pak army on IAF. Then let our military sort out the response.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 05 Jan 2016 09:52

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 446226.cms

The above report indicates that some of the questions posed in the earlier post seem to be true such as the weapons being kept ready previously for the terror groups to pick up. Which means a well functioning Drug route with local participation was used by whoever planned this. The locals may or may not have been in the loop that they are being used.

The local SP being out there in the night is intriguing. While there can be questions raised on what was he upto in the dead of the night in an official car without PSO but with a friend; it is also true that he had raised the warning. Was he in the radar of intelligence as a potentially compromised person involved in the drug trafficking or was he a person who was taking them on?

The report also talks about weaponary and tactics used pointing out to professional training beyond the normal fidayeen profile. My hunch that this was an operation run by professionals from Paki Army under false flag is getting stronger. I hope the investigation establishes a direct state involvement of Pakistan.

The strategic value of that will be quite significant.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Jan 2016 11:27

Raja Ram wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 446226.cms

The above report indicates that some of the questions posed in the earlier post seem to be true such as the weapons being kept ready previously for the terror groups to pick up. Which means a well functioning Drug route with local participation was used by whoever planned this. The locals may or may not have been in the loop that they are being used.

The local SP being out there in the night is intriguing. While there can be questions raised on what was he upto in the dead of the night in an official car without PSO but with a friend; it is also true that he had raised the warning. Was he in the radar of intelligence as a potentially compromised person involved in the drug trafficking or was he a person who was taking them on?

The report also talks about weaponary and tactics used pointing out to professional training beyond the normal fidayeen profile. My hunch that this was an operation run by professionals from Paki Army under false flag is getting stronger. I hope the investigation establishes a direct state involvement of Pakistan.

The strategic value of that will be quite significant.

why false flag?? It was a straightforward operation that has the "i don't care what you think" plausible deniability that is characteristic of all such paki operations.

locals were involved for sure. Not too hard to motivate the khalisthani and /or drug running types to pitch in.

Even in 26/11, ammo and weapons were dropped off and hidden in the taj hotel prior to the strike. This aspect was glossed over as was the involvement of locals.

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 05 Jan 2016 12:04

There can be no question that Modi seems to be acting like a wimp. But the question is why ? Is he just as much an anti-national as all his predecessors who acted like wimps, when it came to our enemies ? The answer is clearly, "No". Therefore, this begs the question, as to why then, not being an anti-national, in fact being quite a nationalist, Modi seems to be acting like a wimp.

What could be the possible explanations. As I see it, there could only be the following.

1. Modi, while not being an anti-national, once being in power, he seems to have drank the same Lutyans cool aid, and has gone soft, like everybody else in Lutyans Delhi.

I dont think this is very likely.

Or

2. Modi is surrounded by anti-nationals like Jetly and Swaraj and he does not have the confidence to override them and the entire corrupt Delhi Lutyan establishment that thinks like Jelty and Swaraj.

While I agree that Jetly and Swaraj and the Lytans establishment is anti-national, I dont believe it is very likely that Modi lacks the self-confidence to override them.

Or

3. Modi is pressured into acting like a wimp by US.

I do not believe for a minute that there is any US pressure on Modi, whatsoever, to go soft on Paki, and ever if there were, I do not believe, Modi would succumb to that. I think, Modi would rather "eat grass", than succumb to US pressure.

Or

4. While Modi himself is a hardliner and would like nothing better than to teach our enemies a lesson, Modi realizes that India's defense preparedness is hopelessly compromised by his predecessors, to a point, where India cannot wage even a limited war, or even a very limited symbolic punitive action against Paki. Therefore, he is acting like a wimp.

I think this is the most likely scenario.

The question now is, what is Modi doing to quickly, on war footing, enhance our defense preparedness ? Is he doing enough ? Is he mobilizing public opinion in favor of such a project on war footing ? And if so, will the "billion crabs" that constitute the population of India allow him to do so ?

sum · Post by **sum** » 05 Jan 2016 12:06

And if so, will the "billion crabs" that constitute the population of India allow him to do so ?

If the antics of INC and AAP-tards all over the place is any indication, it s a big NO.

They guys cannot even wait until end of ops and already even started trending wierd stuff like "Doval must resign"!

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 05 Jan 2016 12:23

After Mumbai , congress was hellbent on talks on dossier diplomacy. After Pathankot BJP is singing same tune.

In Dec itself, news channels were abuzz with 20 terrorists sneeking into India to carry on attacks. Govt had credible intelligence. So, maybe Modi decided to start talks before attacks happened so that he could suspend it after attacks or else if there were no talks , he would have to take some concrete action on ground which the Govt and forces might not be prepared for and will never be.

So, Nawaz-Modi meet in Lahore was just a face saving grace for afterattack scenario. What's puzzling is his insistence for talks after the attack ? The way BJP govt is showing its strong commitments to talks , its creating an atmosphere of deja vu when they cancel the talks.They are orchestrating such an atmosphere of euphoria that when talks get cancelled India could feel that befitting reply has been given.

As for any overt or covert reply to Pak is concerned , we can have a 'bojitiv befitting reply to terror attacks' thread on that. Modi seems to have invested too much emotional capital and ego in Nawaz meet in Lahore.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely and Modi does enjoy absolute power in this govt.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 05 Jan 2016 12:45

Indian media seems to be gloating over the fact that Pakistan has 'accepted' the Indian leads. It is no proof that Pakistan has made a U-turn. The latest Jalalabad attack on the Indian consulate along with the one at Mazar-e-Sharif have all been coordinated with Pathankot. This is similar to the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul in 2008 or the Herat Consulate attack on the eve of Modi assuming power in c. 2014.

The Pakistani NSA will eventually come out with the usual 'not enough evidence' but in the meanwhile pretend to be 'acting seriously' so as to ward off any pressure. The Pakistanis are past masters in fraud and duplicity.

The Indian media jumps the gun too quickly just as it did about the MFN status many centuries ago.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 Jan 2016 12:53

Sheikh Rasheed is the link to the terrorists planning on India.
They see that NO LEADERSHIP INSIDE pAK. ONE MAN SHOW OF NS. VERY FRUSTRATED INSIDE PAK WITH NS AND POLITICOS.

HENCE THEY KEEP PRAISING COAS. THEY THINK THAT PAK LEADERSHIP IS PUPPET OF UNCLE.

Video Dec 20

He has been challenging India and Modi from Dec 20 . Please see the video

VIDEO Dec 25

Sheikh Rasheed had already warned in 25 dec that this will be taken care
He is warning Amrika and Modi

VIDEO Dec 28

Here in Dec 28 he is openly challenging Modi.
He is appealing to Indian people to start doubting Modi and his policy.

And here is BRF we have weak people already making fun and calling names on Modi just like the Paki clever politician wanted.

Indians in BRF are falling for the trap.

This kind of response what they wanted from Indians on Modi

rsangram wrote:

The question now is, what is Modi doing to quickly, on war footing, enhance our defense preparedness ? Is he doing enough ? Is he mobilizing public opinion in favor of such a project on war footing ? And if so, will the "billion crabs" that constitute the population of India allow him to do so ?

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 05 Jan 2016 13:14

tifwiw
Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 5h5 hours ago
It is curious that Pak civil Govt told US in advance of Pathankot terror attack about it. US informed India--who? No action!!

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 05 Jan 2016 14:13

Pathankot attack: Guns fall silent at IAF base, search operation still on

PATHANKOT: Guns fell silent on Tuesday morning at the IAF base here even as the operation against terrorists entered its fourth day with security personnel engaged in search and combing operations to sanitise the installation.

Defence sources said that the firing at the Air Force base in Punjab ceased on Tuesday morning after the attack that began in the wee hours on Saturday.

However, search and combing operations are on to ensure that the defence installation is properly secured and sanitised, they added.

Security forces had on Monday killed two more Pakistani terrorists inside the Pathankot airbase with the government saying that six attackers had thus been neutralised. However, it was not clear whether all the intruders who attacked the base have been eliminated.

Following a meeting of the National Security Council chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, finance minister Arun Jaitley had said that the bodies of four terrorists have been recovered and those of the remaining two would be found.

The number of intruders had been put at six by officials and the figures given by Jaitley implied that all of them have been eliminated. However, none in the government was prepared to say on Monday that no more terrorists were inside the base or that the operation was over.

Combing and search operations will continue till "we are able to fully render the base safe", NSG IG Maj Gen Dushant Singh had said

Jaitley, who had attended the NSC meeting along with senior Cabinet colleagues Sushma Swaraj and Manohar Parrikar, had said that all assets at the base were safe

Security forces were able to confine the terrorists to the point at which they had intruded and held them at a "reasonable distance" from where the assets were located, the senior minister had added.

Meanwhile, in the wake of the Pathankot attack as well as the strike on the Indian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan, both probably originating in Pakistan, indications were that next week's scheduled visit by foreign secretary Jaishankar to Islamabad for talks will be put off.

It is likely that the national security advisors of the two countries may have an urgent meeting in the next few days after which a call would be taken on the foreign secretary-level talks.

Cheers

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 05 Jan 2016 15:40

Sharif calls Modi and assures him of support.
So what action can Nawaz take ? Put Masood Azhar in house arrest ?

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 05 Jan 2016 16:05

Fresh explosion heard from inside Pathankot air base. Combing operation under way: ANI03:16 PM (IST)

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 Jan 2016 17:01

The pigs dressed in army uniform,if true as reported ,may be pretending to be armymen searching for the pigs. If there location has been identified,where firing,etc. is coming from,then we should use the bases' gunships to obliterate the area.Why drag on the torture of watching rifle/MG fire go on ad nauseum. The longer these attacks last,it only brings joy to the Pakis and shows us up as being rather incompetent.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 05 Jan 2016 17:22

Najam Sethi in Last video has said India's visa policy is "Bahut bahut Sakht". So do not lose sleep over Modi/Doval.

They are doing their bit in setting right policies

Wait for some time to understand the Pathankot episode and details to come out

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jan 2016 17:32

This is from a Pakistani newspaper, so view it skeptically.
http://nation.com.pk/international/05-Jan-2016/india-threatens-sri-lanka-for-suspending-disbursement-of-loan

COLOMBO: India has threatened Sri Lanka to refrain from purchasing JF-Thunder air craft’s from Pakistan, otherwise India will stop extending financial assistance to it.

A private TV channel while quoting diplomatic sources said that India has mounted immense pressure on Sri Lanka on the issue of purchase of JF-Thunder aircrafts from Pakistan, India has warned Sri Lanka against signing agreement with Pakistan for purchasing these aircrafts.

India has threatened that it will suspend payment of 400 billion loans to Sri Lanka, if it reaches any agreement with Pakistan for acquiring JF Thunder aircrafts.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jan 2016 18:41

Philip wrote:The pigs dressed in army uniform,if true as reported ,may be pretending to be armymen searching for the pigs. If there location has been identified,where firing,etc. is coming from,then we should use the bases' gunships to obliterate the area.Why drag on the torture of watching rifle/MG fire go on ad nauseum. The longer these attacks last,it only brings joy to the Pakis and shows us up as being rather incompetent.

Remember, this is not like combing through the jungle seeking Naxalites. Naxalites are sane and are hoping to get away to fight another day. These guys are suicidal, looking for an opportunity to die while creating the maximum possible damage.

IMO, if it is at all possible, in such situations, there should simply be a cordon, maintained until the guys inside the cordon exhaust their supplies and are dying of thirst and/or hunger; i.e., such an operation might take weeks.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jan 2016 18:56

x-post from the Foreign Policy thread
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/in ... 065319.ece
M.K. Narayanan, former National Security Adviser and former Governor of West Bengal writes:

The real motive underlying the Prime Minister’s visit to Pakistan remains unclear. Mr. Modi is well aware that Pakistan has given no indication whatsoever of having “changed its spots”. Only a few hours prior to the Lahore visit, he had implicitly warned Afghanistan of the threat posed by Pakistan. Less than a fortnight ago while addressing the Combined Commanders’ Conference on board INS Vikramaditya, the Prime Minister had struck a sombre note, warning that “we see terrorism and ceasefire violations; reckless nuclear build-up and threats; border transgressions; and continuing military modernisation” in our neighbourhood. All this leaves little room for anyone to think that the Prime Minister nurtures any illusion of a change of heart on Pakistan’s part. It would, hence, be unrealistic to think that he was hoping to remove the obstacles that stood in the way of a reconciliation between the two countries with this grand gesture. Mr. Modi is also well aware that there can be no substitute for hard negotiations, or the need for a great deal of effort, to narrow the gap between the two countries.

The real danger is that it could lull the nation into a false sense of complacency and security on account of the circumstances surrounding this sudden move. Any mistaken step as far as Pakistan is concerned needs to be avoided. Pakistan is presently going through a very “promising” phase in its turbulent history, and is being wooed by both China and the U.S. It does not, however, show any signs that it has reduced its animosity towards India.

The potential benefits from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are expected to substantially improve Pakistan’s economic fortunes. The U.S., in the meantime, appears to have reversed some of the policies it had adopted after 2013, and is demonstrating a higher degree of sensitivity to Pakistan’s concerns. It is at present actively courting Pakistan in view of its strategic location vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Central Asia. The sale of additional F-16 fighter aircraft, and continuation of the Coalition Support Fund beyond 2016 reflect this. Reported U.S. support to facilitating projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, U.S. support for a sustained dialogue between India and Pakistan “to resolve all outstanding territorial and other disputes, including Kashmir”, and a reference to “working together to address mutual concerns of India and Pakistan regarding terrorism” in the joint statement issued following the visit of Mr. Sharif to Washington in October, well reflect some current realities. This cannot be viewed as mere straws in the wind.

It would thus be premature to offer congratulations on an end-year “breakthrough” in India-Pakistan relations. Instead, there is need for greater vigil and more careful thought on what needs to be done so as to prevent a Kargil-type situation, exploiting the current euphoria, from taking place.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 05 Jan 2016 19:03

A_Gupta wrote:This is from a Pakistani newspaper, so view it skeptically.
http://nation.com.pk/international/05-J ... nt-of-loan

COLOMBO: India has threatened Sri Lanka to refrain from purchasing JF-Thunder air craft’s from Pakistan, otherwise India will stop extending financial assistance to it.

A private TV channel while quoting diplomatic sources said that India has mounted immense pressure on Sri Lanka on the issue of purchase of JF-Thunder aircrafts from Pakistan, India has warned Sri Lanka against signing agreement with Pakistan for purchasing these aircrafts.

India has threatened that it will suspend payment of 400 billion loans to Sri Lanka, if it reaches any agreement with Pakistan for acquiring JF Thunder aircrafts.

It would be a surprise only if it is not the case. India would do its best to ensure neither Bangladesh nor SL nor Vietnam try out JF-Thunders. Our leverage with Myanmar is not much.. otherwise we would try it there as well.

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 05 Jan 2016 19:22

Act against attackers if they are Pakistanis, says columnist

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan must cooperate with India in nabbing the masterminds of the terror attack on the IAF base in Punjab if they happen to be Pakistanis, a columnist said in remarks published on Tuesday.

"Pakistan must cooperate in nabbing the planners if they're proven to be in Pakistan," Islamabad-based Marvi Sirmed wrote in The Nation newspaper.

"Both the states should make sure that the dialogue must go on. Come what may," she added.

Terrorists believed to be from Pakistan attacked the Indian Air Force (IAF) base at Pathankot in Punjab before dawn on Saturday, leaving seven security personnel dead. Security forces killed five terrorists.

Calling the attack "dastardly", she noted that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif condoled the deaths while strongly condemning the attack.

Sirmed said most Pakistan-India observers were anticipating such a terror attack, ever since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised the world by flying into Lahore to meet Sharif on Christmas.

"Just like the method in madness, there has been a long sustaining pattern of things between Pakistan and India.

"Every advance in the peace process has followed an incidence like this. When the recent thaw happened, many suggested that both the countries must devise a contingency for the apprehended obstacles and obstructions."

She said Pakistan must stop being seen on the side of the alleged attackers.

"When we scream to the world that we are the biggest victims of terror, we must be seen doing something against the scourge.

"Not allowing these elements taking our image in their hands, as a starter."

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jan 2016 19:27

schinnas wrote:It would be a surprise only if it is not the case. India would do its best to ensure neither Bangladesh nor SL nor Vietnam try out JF-Thunders. Our leverage with Myanmar is not much.. otherwise we would try it there as well.

Sorry, I'll be more explicit next time about what I mean. The thing to approach skeptically is the claim that Sri Lanka wants to buy JF-Thunders.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jan 2016 19:31

FYI, JF-17 sale to Myanmar, we still only have rumors.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/the-sino ... r-in-asia/

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 05 Jan 2016 19:31

Bakistan's Home Minister survives assassination attempt

Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan escaped a terrorist attack

05 January, 2016

LAHORE: The convoy of Federal Minister for Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan has escaped a terrorist attack in Lahore.

According to media reports, police have recovered a bomb during patrolling from a bridge at Canal Raod, from where the convoy of Interior Minister just passed.

However, the DIG Lahore has stated that terrorists wanted to hit a key personality. He said that the main objective of terrorists was to terrify the common people, through this wicked attempt.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 05 Jan 2016 19:45

^^^ Raheel Shareef warning Nawaz shareef not to bite more than he can chew.

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 05 Jan 2016 19:55

A_Gupta wrote:FYI, JF-17 sale to Myanmar, we still only have rumors.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/the-sino ... r-in-asia/

Reports coming in that Ganja on a visit to Sri Lanka has managed to sign an agreement to sell 8 bandars to SLAF.

Hope SL has some mountains to fly them into.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Jan 2016 19:57

this chaudhry nisar is believed to be more pro-army and pro-raheel than anyone in sharif cabinet. his brothers have served in army and are some brigadier/lt. gen etc, So it's not raheel.

Tejas.P · Post by **Tejas.P** » 05 Jan 2016 19:59

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standp ... cy-2162582

Pakistan and Domino Kidney Swap-style diplomacy: How 2016 will look for Indian foreign policyWhy has Pakistan offered to collaborate in the investigation into the Pathankot terror strike with unaccustomed speed? Why was Indian top political establishment so guarded in its condemnation instead of the fire-and-brimstone default response?

If one zooms out a little, it is not difficult to see that the Domino Kidney-Swap style political deal-making which was speculated upon in my article on July 18, 2015 seems to be unfolding right before our eyes. Domino kidney swap, for those who do not know, involves a chain. If A, B, C… N are the patients in need of kidney transplants, A’s relative gives a kidney to B, B’s relative gives it to C and so on till the loop is completed with N’s relative giving a kidney to A.

So what does 2016 hold in store for India on the foreign policy front? Let us first see what ‘kidney’ problem was troubling each of the key players when this plan seems to have evolved.

By the end of 2014, Barack Obama’s foreign policy headache was Afghanistani Taliban, especially with ISIS taking centre stage as the major policy issue. Given the ‘withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan’ platform on which he had been elected, he needed a solution. Afghanistan Taliban could not be contained without Pakistani help and US had little leverage left other than the tried and failed dollops of dollars. The other major pain point for Obama was on environment where, as a practical matter, India seemed to have a veto on any agreement. The US leverage with India was even less than with Pakistan.

Pakistan seemed to have three geo-strategic problems: some of the terror outfits had turned against the state itself, internationally Pakistan was increasingly being isolated both as a fountainhead of terror and as a nuclear pariah and its economy was floundering. Pakistani generals could not play ball on containing the terror factories, essentially their creations, on both their Eastern and Western borders, without some satisfaction on their main 60 year theme song, Kashmir. The only chance of solving these problems was to have some accommodation with India but Pakistan had no leverage with India.

India under Prime Minister Modi had hugely intensified retaliatory action against what had by then become routine Pakistani provocation on the LoC. It had shown that it was quite prepared to attempt bringing Pakistan to its knees in a replay of the US-USSR cold war end game of increasing the costs of continued confrontation, making it unviable for the financially weaker party. There was nothing that India needed from Pakistan except for it to shut down its terror factories. India and its ambitious Prime Minister, however, did need something which only the US was in a position to facilitate— a Security Council seat.

There you have it, the essentials of the Domino Kidney Swap Diplomatic solution. The US was to get satisfaction in Afghanistan from Pakistan and on a global environment agreement from India. Pakistan was to get a nuclear fuel waiver and legitimacy for its nuclear programme on par with India in return for dumping its terrorists and waiving off its objections to India getting a Security Council seat. India was to get a meaningful shot at a Security Council seat in return for stopping stonewalling on Kashmir and also waiving its objection to Pakistan getting equal treatment in nuclear matters.

It seems very likely that the scenario described above was discussed in Australia by Barack Obama and Narendra Modi in end November 2014 on the sidelines of the G20 summit and a roadmap towards resolution was put in place by January 26, 2015 when Obama visited India for the Republic Day parade. The logical timeline for completing the ‘chain operations’ would seem to be Obama’s term, ending by November 2016.

Half the scenarios envisaged have already played out: Indian accommodation on environment talks (Obama personally thanked Modi after the Paris meet), Pakistani Army diluting its support to both the extreme elements and Hurriyat and the international community, under US prodding, showing signs of flexibility on the nuclear fuel issue and possibly legitimacy for Pakistan and a non-voting Security council seat for India.

So how does 2016 look? Here are some thoughts.

1. The Pathankot terror attack has shown that the forces inimical to Indo-Pak peace will put up a strong fight. From their points-of-view, their fight now is totally existential. For them, Kashmir is now merely a convenient façade to continue their lifestyles in often comfortable circumstances. There is a whole bunch of 30 and 40-year-olds out there who have no training for any other career and who can see their SUVs and mansions with 6 digit compensation packages all unraveling if, god forbid, India and Pakistan agreed to a deal. In practical terms, this portends a seriously dangerous first quarter or perhaps first half of 2016 while Pakistani Army tries and brings them to heel. As is customary in Pakistan, it is entirely possible that the bad guys will have to be lured with promises of decent security jobs and if they are, Indians would do well to pray for the success of these overtures.

2. The time also seems to have come for the US to do its share of the heavy lifting. Wait a minute, hasn’t President Obama, in an unprecedented move, just invited Modi and Sharif for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Conference on March 31/ April 1, 2016 in the US? You should hear the penny dropping.

3. But the Security Council seat is not for the US to give, you say? What about the mega deals India has signed with the UK, France and Russia in the last six months alone, post Ufa? By now you should be hearing Pounds, Francs and Roubles dropping too!

4. China is special because Pakistan is almost its client state. But China too is interested in weaning the Pakistani establishment away from its pet terrorists since they are giving it a real headache in the border Ugur province. Moreover, Pakistan is a key part of its land-based Silk Road project and it has already committed a whopping $46 billion which is helping regenerate Pakistani economy in the area. Choking off terror factories is part of the deal. As far as the Security Council expansion is concerned, Chinese are realists. The pressure for UN Security Council reform is mounting and they would rather have India than Japan at the high table as the second participant from Asia. And which was the first country to whole-heartedly welcome Modi’s surprise Lahore visit? China, of course.

To be sure, China also has major border problems with India. Wait one more minute please, why did Ajit Doval, PM Modi’s trusted NSA, plan to rush to China—now delayed— immediately after Modi returned from his ‘surprise’ visit to Pakistan? It seems very possible that you should be hearing Yuan drop in few weeks with news of some breakthrough, minor or major, in China-India border talks.

All this is not to suggest that the road ahead will be easy. LeT, Jaish and all others will likely throw in all their ammunition/sleeper cadres to derail Indo-Pak peace because it is literally a matter of life or death for them. They may not be able to pull off another 26/11 type attack without the Pakistan Army’s direct involvement but they can do serious damage in areas where they have sleeper cells or in border areas with infiltration. That is when the nerves of the top political leadership in India and Pakistan will be tested. They will need to hold their nerves because such opportunities of solving seemingly impossible problems come very rarely.

h

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 05 Jan 2016 20:32

X-post from NGO and Media watch thread.

I am watching NewX now (NationAt9 program anchor @RShivshankar) and it was honey to jingo's ears.

The program is titled #MakePakPay and the discussion was on where is Pro-Pak Lobby. They quoted controversial statements of all our traitors (Mani Shankar Aiyar, Sudheendra Kulkarni, Salman Kurshid) and questionable characters such as Ved Pratap Vaidik who were berating (NewX terminology, not mine) PM Modi for taking tough stand against Pak and questioned why there is not a word from them now when Pak is bleeding India. Special attention was given to statements of MSA in Pak asking them to "remove" PM Modi and bring Cong to power. Similarly Salman Khurshid was berated for calling Pak PM as more brave then PM Modi.

It was as if watching a program anchored by a BRFite.

As BRFite Shiv pointed out, NewX has made a policy decision to not invite Puki rats to their talk shows. I have made a decision to watch NewsX exclusively instead of other English channels which would annoy any nationalistic person.

If NewsX keeps at this, they can easily evolve as a trusted and balanced channel (with slight nationalistic bent) as the bar is very low now. Good luck, NewsX! After observing it for few more days, I will recommend it to my friends and relatives if they are consistent.

Looking at their leadership and editorial team, I see V.S. Nalapat

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 05 Jan 2016 21:25

The Express Tribune
Modi urges Pakistan to take 'immediate action' after base attack
By AFP

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Pakistan to take immediate action after the attack on an Indian air force base in Pathankot.
Modi “strongly emphasised the need for Pakistan to take firm and immediate action against the organisations and individuals responsible for and linked to the Pathankot terrorist attack,” the Indian government said in a statement, after Modi spoke by telephone to Nawaz Sharif.

“PM Nawaz called Modi to convey sorrow and grief on the loss of life in Pathankot terror attack,” a PM House statement said. “PM stated that terrorists always try to derail the peace process between the two countries.”
Further, the PM was quoted as saying that Pakistan will investigate in detail on the leads and information provided by the government of India. “Both the premiers showed resolve to fight out terrorism together through mutual cooperation,” the statement added.

Modi’s office said New Delhi had given Islamabad “specific and actionable information” on the audacious attack, which came just days after a landmark visit to Pakistan by the Indian premier raised hopes of improved relations.
Security officials suspect the gunmen — five of whom were killed — belonged to the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group that staged a 2001 attack on the Indian parliament which brought the two countries to the brink of war.

In a statement, Modi’s office said Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Nawaz had telephoned him to discuss the attack on the Pathankot base in the northern state of Punjab near the border with Pakistan.
Modi “strongly emphasised the need for Pakistan to take firm and immediate action against the organisations and individuals responsible for and linked to the Pathankot terrorist attack,” said the statement.
“Specific and actionable information in this regard has been provided to Pakistan.” It said Nawaz had given assurances that his government would take “prompt and decisive action”.

Officially, India has not yet pointed finger at Pakistan. The National Security Guard (NSG), which leading the operation at the base, merely said it was a Fidayeen attack – which means the attackers knew they were going to their death. “These terrorists had come well prepared and were heavily armed” the NSG said in a short briefing.
Further, the United States on Tuesday said it ‘expects’ Pakistan to act against Indian air base attackers and target militant groups.
Moreover, Modi held a meeting with top officials, including national security adviser Ajit Doval and foreign secretary S Jaishankar to discuss the incident.

Conclusion: Modi-ji giving the benefit of the doubt to Ganja Sharif ; Modi-ji believes NS not in the loop re: Deep State shenanigans ; remains to be seen if Ganja Sharif has the cojones to "control" Deep State

sukhish · Post by **sukhish** » 05 Jan 2016 21:39

Falijee wrote:The Express Tribune
Modi urges Pakistan to take 'immediate action' after base attack
By AFP
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Pakistan to take immediate action after the attack on an Indian air force base in Pathankot.
Modi “strongly emphasised the need for Pakistan to take firm and immediate action against the organisations and individuals responsible for and linked to the Pathankot terrorist attack,” the Indian government said in a statement, after Modi spoke by telephone to Nawaz Sharif.

“PM Nawaz called Modi to convey sorrow and grief on the loss of life in Pathankot terror attack,” a PM House statement said. “PM stated that terrorists always try to derail the peace process between the two countries.”
Further, the PM was quoted as saying that Pakistan will investigate in detail on the leads and information provided by the government of India. “Both the premiers showed resolve to fight out terrorism together through mutual cooperation,” the statement added.

Modi’s office said New Delhi had given Islamabad “specific and actionable information” on the audacious attack, which came just days after a landmark visit to Pakistan by the Indian premier raised hopes of improved relations.
Security officials suspect the gunmen — five of whom were killed — belonged to the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group that staged a 2001 attack on the Indian parliament which brought the two countries to the brink of war.

In a statement, Modi’s office said Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Nawaz had telephoned him to discuss the attack on the Pathankot base in the northern state of Punjab near the border with Pakistan.
Modi “strongly emphasised the need for Pakistan to take firm and immediate action against the organisations and individuals responsible for and linked to the Pathankot terrorist attack,” said the statement.
“Specific and actionable information in this regard has been provided to Pakistan.” It said Nawaz had given assurances that his government would take “prompt and decisive action”.

Officially, India has not yet pointed finger at Pakistan. The National Security Guard (NSG), which leading the operation at the base, merely said it was a Fidayeen attack – which means the attackers knew they were going to their death. “These terrorists had come well prepared and were heavily armed” the NSG said in a short briefing.
Further, the United States on Tuesday said it ‘expects’ Pakistan to act against Indian air base attackers and target militant groups.
Moreover, Modi held a meeting with top officials, including national security adviser Ajit Doval and foreign secretary S Jaishankar to discuss the incident.
Conclusion: Modi-ji giving the benefit of the doubt to Ganja Sharif ; Modi-ji believes NS not in the loop re: Deep State shenanigans ; remains to be seen if Ganja Sharif has the cojones to "control" Deep State

basically GOI does not have whole lot of options, is that what your saying

sukhish · Post by **sukhish** » 05 Jan 2016 21:45

CRamS wrote:sukhish, please watch Arnabs's show where people RSN Singh etc are clearly pointing to elements of the Punjab police, especially that SP helping the Pakis.

CRamS,
http://www.ibnlive.com/news/india/forme ... 85754.html
this all started out in 2014, there are airforce men involved as well.

I'am pretty sure these airforce men are not radicalized, shall we call him a traitor ?

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 05 Jan 2016 21:49

Pakis Worried Over Inter-Ummah Civil War

Grave dangers face Muslim world in light of Saudi-Iran standoff: Sartaj

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is concerned over recent tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran that spiralled after the execution of Shia scholar Sheikh Nimr al Nimr, the Adviser to Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz said in a policy statement he read before the National Assembly on Tuesday.
The Muslim World faces grave dangers in the situation that has risen in wake of the Saudi-Iran conflict, Aziz said.
He expressed concern that terrorists can use the diplomatic crisis in Middle East to their advantage.

i]Not clear who is he messaging here; Saudis, Iran, ISIS?[/i]

The statement follows criticism from opposition parties which lashed out at the government in the National Assembly for not coming up with a clear stance on the situation arising out in the region because of the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran and called for a parliamentary briefing on the issue.
In his statement, Aziz maintained that Pakistan will continue to play its role to ease tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and it advocates unity among the Muslim countries.

So, the Pakis are now distancing themselves from Saudis rash actions,(like the earlier Yemen crisis) fearing a blow-back from their local Shia populace; maybe, this was the real reason, why the Saudi (Abbu), FO was asked to "postpone" his Pak visit

Aziz said the National Assembly would be given an in-camera briefing on the Saudi-Iran tensions.
National interest( code word for neutrality) will be given priority in context of the diplomatic row in Middle East, he said.
Pakistan disapproved on Monday a mob attack on Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran, which sparked a diplomatic crisis between Iran and Arab countries, Dawn newspaper reported.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir said his country would also halt air traffic and commercial relations with Iran.
In response to rumors that Pakistan was also exploring options about downgrading its diplomatic relationship with Iran, Foreign Officer spokesman Qazi Khalilullah said, "I will not comment on rumours and speculations.”
There have been protests in Pakistan against the execution of the Shia cleric. But the FO has avoided commenting on the development that led to escalation of tensions between the two rivals.

After, letting the Saudis "use them as a condom", it will be very difficult (financially ) for the Pakis to adopt a neutral stance; rightly or wrongly, they are perceived as "being in the pockets of the King Of "The Land Of The Two Mosques"

Pakistan is a ally of Saudi Arabia and the countries share close economic and defence ties.
A scheduled Jan 18 trip by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif to Tehran, according to a diplomatic source, has become uncertain following the tiff between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

sukhish · Post by **sukhish** » 05 Jan 2016 22:02

sum wrote:
And if so, will the "billion crabs" that constitute the population of India allow him to do so ?
If the antics of INC and AAP-tards all over the place is any indication, it s a big NO.

They guys cannot even wait until end of ops and already even started trending wierd stuff like "Doval must resign"!

when in opposition blame the GOI, when in GOI blame the opposition, great work.

sukhish · Post by **sukhish** » 05 Jan 2016 22:05

Tejas.P wrote:http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standp ... cy-2162582

Pakistan and Domino Kidney Swap-style diplomacy: How 2016 will look for Indian foreign policyWhy has Pakistan offered to collaborate in the investigation into the Pathankot terror strike with unaccustomed speed? Why was Indian top political establishment so guarded in its condemnation instead of the fire-and-brimstone default response?

If one zooms out a little, it is not difficult to see that the Domino Kidney-Swap style political deal-making which was speculated upon in my article on July 18, 2015 seems to be unfolding right before our eyes. Domino kidney swap, for those who do not know, involves a chain. If A, B, C… N are the patients in need of kidney transplants, A’s relative gives a kidney to B, B’s relative gives it to C and so on till the loop is completed with N’s relative giving a kidney to A.

So what does 2016 hold in store for India on the foreign policy front? Let us first see what ‘kidney’ problem was troubling each of the key players when this plan seems to have evolved.

By the end of 2014, Barack Obama’s foreign policy headache was Afghanistani Taliban, especially with ISIS taking centre stage as the major policy issue. Given the ‘withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan’ platform on which he had been elected, he needed a solution. Afghanistan Taliban could not be contained without Pakistani help and US had little leverage left other than the tried and failed dollops of dollars. The other major pain point for Obama was on environment where, as a practical matter, India seemed to have a veto on any agreement. The US leverage with India was even less than with Pakistan.

Pakistan seemed to have three geo-strategic problems: some of the terror outfits had turned against the state itself, internationally Pakistan was increasingly being isolated both as a fountainhead of terror and as a nuclear pariah and its economy was floundering. Pakistani generals could not play ball on containing the terror factories, essentially their creations, on both their Eastern and Western borders, without some satisfaction on their main 60 year theme song, Kashmir. The only chance of solving these problems was to have some accommodation with India but Pakistan had no leverage with India.

India under Prime Minister Modi had hugely intensified retaliatory action against what had by then become routine Pakistani provocation on the LoC. It had shown that it was quite prepared to attempt bringing Pakistan to its knees in a replay of the US-USSR cold war end game of increasing the costs of continued confrontation, making it unviable for the financially weaker party. There was nothing that India needed from Pakistan except for it to shut down its terror factories. India and its ambitious Prime Minister, however, did need something which only the US was in a position to facilitate— a Security Council seat.

There you have it, the essentials of the Domino Kidney Swap Diplomatic solution. The US was to get satisfaction in Afghanistan from Pakistan and on a global environment agreement from India. Pakistan was to get a nuclear fuel waiver and legitimacy for its nuclear programme on par with India in return for dumping its terrorists and waiving off its objections to India getting a Security Council seat. India was to get a meaningful shot at a Security Council seat in return for stopping stonewalling on Kashmir and also waiving its objection to Pakistan getting equal treatment in nuclear matters.

It seems very likely that the scenario described above was discussed in Australia by Barack Obama and Narendra Modi in end November 2014 on the sidelines of the G20 summit and a roadmap towards resolution was put in place by January 26, 2015 when Obama visited India for the Republic Day parade. The logical timeline for completing the ‘chain operations’ would seem to be Obama’s term, ending by November 2016.

Half the scenarios envisaged have already played out: Indian accommodation on environment talks (Obama personally thanked Modi after the Paris meet), Pakistani Army diluting its support to both the extreme elements and Hurriyat and the international community, under US prodding, showing signs of flexibility on the nuclear fuel issue and possibly legitimacy for Pakistan and a non-voting Security council seat for India.

So how does 2016 look? Here are some thoughts.

1. The Pathankot terror attack has shown that the forces inimical to Indo-Pak peace will put up a strong fight. From their points-of-view, their fight now is totally existential. For them, Kashmir is now merely a convenient façade to continue their lifestyles in often comfortable circumstances. There is a whole bunch of 30 and 40-year-olds out there who have no training for any other career and who can see their SUVs and mansions with 6 digit compensation packages all unraveling if, god forbid, India and Pakistan agreed to a deal. In practical terms, this portends a seriously dangerous first quarter or perhaps first half of 2016 while Pakistani Army tries and brings them to heel. As is customary in Pakistan, it is entirely possible that the bad guys will have to be lured with promises of decent security jobs and if they are, Indians would do well to pray for the success of these overtures.

2. The time also seems to have come for the US to do its share of the heavy lifting. Wait a minute, hasn’t President Obama, in an unprecedented move, just invited Modi and Sharif for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Conference on March 31/ April 1, 2016 in the US? You should hear the penny dropping.

3. But the Security Council seat is not for the US to give, you say? What about the mega deals India has signed with the UK, France and Russia in the last six months alone, post Ufa? By now you should be hearing Pounds, Francs and Roubles dropping too!

4. China is special because Pakistan is almost its client state. But China too is interested in weaning the Pakistani establishment away from its pet terrorists since they are giving it a real headache in the border Ugur province. Moreover, Pakistan is a key part of its land-based Silk Road project and it has already committed a whopping $46 billion which is helping regenerate Pakistani economy in the area. Choking off terror factories is part of the deal. As far as the Security Council expansion is concerned, Chinese are realists. The pressure for UN Security Council reform is mounting and they would rather have India than Japan at the high table as the second participant from Asia. And which was the first country to whole-heartedly welcome Modi’s surprise Lahore visit? China, of course.

To be sure, China also has major border problems with India. Wait one more minute please, why did Ajit Doval, PM Modi’s trusted NSA, plan to rush to China—now delayed— immediately after Modi returned from his ‘surprise’ visit to Pakistan? It seems very possible that you should be hearing Yuan drop in few weeks with news of some breakthrough, minor or major, in China-India border talks.

All this is not to suggest that the road ahead will be easy. LeT, Jaish and all others will likely throw in all their ammunition/sleeper cadres to derail Indo-Pak peace because it is literally a matter of life or death for them. They may not be able to pull off another 26/11 type attack without the Pakistan Army’s direct involvement but they can do serious damage in areas where they have sleeper cells or in border areas with infiltration. That is when the nerves of the top political leadership in India and Pakistan will be tested. They will need to hold their nerves because such opportunities of solving seemingly impossible problems come very rarely.
h

nawaZ will succesfully navigate through this, after the catching few people, they will demand more F-16 fighters from US, and in that case modi will not be in a position to stop US as well, because he would have to show some action being taken to the people of india using nawaz help.

sukhish · Post by **sukhish** » 05 Jan 2016 22:07

as it is it seems SL is getting 8 JF-17 fighters now, one more failure of GOI

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 05 Jan 2016 22:10

Pakistan to sell JF-17 Thunder aircraft to Sri Lanka

COLOMBO – Pakistan to sell eight combat JF-17 Thunder aircraft to Sri Lanka under an agreement signed during Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s visit on Tuesday.
The multi-roll fighter aircraft is the joint production of Pakistan and China.
Defence officials accompanying the prime minister said that both countries signed eight agreements related to defence, security, anti-terrorism, trade and science and technology and Pakistan would provide eight JF-17 fighter jets to Sri Lanka at the first phase.(may,be the terms offered were generous ?)
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena were present at the ceremony of signing agreements.

If implemented, (and it should be a BIG IF), Ganja, deserves some credit; after all, the legwork may have already been done by officials from both countries; signing was probably, just a formality

!

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 05 Jan 2016 22:14

Falijee wrote:The Express Tribune
Modi urges Pakistan to take 'immediate action' after base attack
By AFP
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Pakistan to take immediate action after the attack on an Indian air force base in Pathankot.
Modi “strongly emphasised the need for Pakistan to take firm and immediate action against the organisations and individuals responsible for and linked to the Pathankot terrorist attack,” the Indian government said in a statement, after Modi spoke by telephone to Nawaz Sharif.

“PM Nawaz called Modi to convey sorrow and grief on the loss of life in Pathankot terror attack,” a PM House statement said. “PM stated that terrorists always try to derail the peace process between the two countries.”
Further, the PM was quoted as saying that Pakistan will investigate in detail on the leads and information provided by the government of India. “Both the premiers showed resolve to fight out terrorism together through mutual cooperation,” the statement added.

Modi’s office said New Delhi had given Islamabad “specific and actionable information” on the audacious attack, which came just days after a landmark visit to Pakistan by the Indian premier raised hopes of improved relations.
Security officials suspect the gunmen — five of whom were killed — belonged to the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group that staged a 2001 attack on the Indian parliament which brought the two countries to the brink of war.

In a statement, Modi’s office said Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Nawaz had telephoned him to discuss the attack on the Pathankot base in the northern state of Punjab near the border with Pakistan.
Modi “strongly emphasised the need for Pakistan to take firm and immediate action against the organisations and individuals responsible for and linked to the Pathankot terrorist attack,” said the statement.
“Specific and actionable information in this regard has been provided to Pakistan.” It said Nawaz had given assurances that his government would take “prompt and decisive action”.

Officially, India has not yet pointed finger at Pakistan. The National Security Guard (NSG), which leading the operation at the base, merely said it was a Fidayeen attack – which means the attackers knew they were going to their death. “These terrorists had come well prepared and were heavily armed” the NSG said in a short briefing.
Further, the United States on Tuesday said it ‘expects’ Pakistan to act against Indian air base attackers and target militant groups.
Moreover, Modi held a meeting with top officials, including national security adviser Ajit Doval and foreign secretary S Jaishankar to discuss the incident.
Conclusion: Modi-ji giving the benefit of the doubt to Ganja Sharif ; Modi-ji believes NS not in the loop re: Deep State shenanigans ; remains to be seen if Ganja Sharif has the cojones to "control" Deep State

What if, NM is not giving Sharif the "benefit of the doubt"? My opinion: NM trusts Sharief as much as he would trust a viper. I would say an inflection point is being forced. Whether that will happen or not..or happen in the manner we desire or not..is not known. But I trust AD to have played out the options/outcomes (gamed them, as many would like to call it).

Insofar as the Pathankot terror attack: I think it was a foregone conclusion that the plan was beyond v1 (the point of no return). It had to happen - if luck favoured us we would be in a position to kill the buggers before they attacked..or kill them after engagement.

There was no way Sharif could have recalled the attack. He never did have that power in that country. Therefore, it "could" have been that NM told Sharief that an attack is in the offing (the previous whispers to each other "perhaps" an early warning from NM that he has information that an attack is going to take place but he doesn't know where)..culminating in the Lahore visit where specifics were told to Sharief. Now Sharief is expected to play a role which will have its consequences. And we will react accordingly. Whether that will lead to some 'shock-and-awe' measure that we would all so LOVE to see...or something more nuanced..that's something we will have to wait and see.

This scenario alone supports the basis of the argument that Pathankot was not a reaction to NM's visit. Rather, that Pathankot was already planned and a "go" from the 'powers' in Pakistan AND NM's visit was to make sure Sharief knew. And a subliminal message to the 'powers' in Pakistan that NM can walk into their den whenever he wants.