India-US Relations : News and Discussion- II

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 10 Jan 2016 23:32

^ U.S. is not a referee or a judge. So it does not make any sense for India to be sending anything to the U.S. India just needs to inform Pakistan that is about it. If Pakistan does not curtail terror activities against India, then India should start similar covert operations against Pakistan. This is how India should deal with terror emanating from Pakistan directed at India.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 11 Jan 2016 00:55

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 505309.cms
"Pathankot terror attack: US alerted India on infiltration"

It was the United States that alerted India through intelligence channels on Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists sneaking into Pathankot. And that was possible because foreign agencies had Qasim Jaan, one of the three Pak-based handlers of Jaish-e-Mohammed, under its surveillance.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 11 Jan 2016 10:10

xpost - Just for the record.. some responses from US lawmakers..

The new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan tweeted:

Our hearts are with the people of India following the senseless #Pathankot attacks. We stand with you in confronting & defeating terrorism,

”
His Number 2 in the House, Majority leader Kevin McCarthy:

Praying for the Indian soldiers killed in the #Panthankot attacks. America will continue to stand with our ally #India to fight terrorism.

Some lawmakers have talked about frustration with Pakistan’s perceived lack of action and intent calling Pakistan by name.

Republican House member Ted Poe:

This week’s deadly terrorist attack on the Pathankot airbase is a reminder that our ally India faces the same threat of radical Islamic terrorism, Unfortunately, India’s neighbour Pakistan has provided safe haven to terrorists for years, from shielding Osama bin Laden to backing covert terrorist operations around the world. It is being reported that members of the Pakistani military may have provided training and assistance to the jihadists who attacked India this week.

Some may call it routine, but as an observer here is US, to me, just the number of people called India "friend" or "ally" was quite satisfactory.. (I can not even imagine this happening a few years ago).

Let me add a partial list of strong supporters, both Democrats and Republicans who made statements regarding Pathankot: Ami Bera, Eliot Engel, Steny Hoyer, Tulsi Gabbard, Grace Meng. McCarthy , Poe, Ed Royce, Pete Sessions.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Jan 2016 08:07

A_Gupta wrote:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 505309.cms
"Pathankot terror attack: US alerted India on infiltration"
It was the United States that alerted India through intelligence channels on Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists sneaking into Pathankot. And that was possible because foreign agencies had Qasim Jaan, one of the three Pak-based handlers of Jaish-e-Mohammed, under its surveillance.

I don't buy it. If anything it was a very vague warning. The US is protecting its interest and will not reveal who is on their payroll in the TSPA general staff. The day TSP has any nukes of any significance, unkil will shit bricks as they know it can be used against them as well as India.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2016 10:09

Amid growing Indian caucus, US Congress stalls F-16 sale to Pak: Pak Daily

Islamabad: Amid growing anti-Pakistan sentiments on Capitol Hill, US Congress has stalled a planned sale of eight new F-16 fighter jets to Islamabad.

Now it has become a routine see strong attacks on Pakistan and its policies during congressional hearings, The Dawn reported.

However, the Obama administration is keen on selling these aircraft and it is pushing for undoing the hold.

There is growing lobby of lawmakers in Congress who not only oppose arms sales to Pakistan but often urge the US administration to sever its ties with the country. Usually, such lawmakers are also active in the Indian caucus on Capitol Hill, the report said.

Pakistan does have a caucus on the Hill but it is small and ineffective. The Indian caucus, however, has grown gradually in size and influence and is now the second most effective lobby after Israel’s, the report added.

“I don’t know how an F-16, with all of its hardware on there for combat can be used for humanitarian aid. If they were buying C-130s … I could see those being used for humanitarian aid. But F-16! It’s not really humanitarian aid,” the Pakistani daily quoted Congressman Ted Poe as saying.
“I want to be very specific in what I am concerned about, and that is, the sale of American fighter jets to Pakistan or the giving of American fighter jets to Pakistan through military aid. That military aid is then used in the United States to buy those jets,” Poe said

“Those F-16s and the military equipment that we are providing Pakistan are being used against their own people, just like they did against the people over there in Bangladesh,” the daily quoted another Congressman Dan Rohrabacher.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Jan 2016 10:21

^^^ I would like to think efforts of people like me are having some effect after all these years..

Those F-16s and the military equipment that we are providing Pakistan are being used against their own people, just like they did against the people over there in Bangladesh,” said Congressman Dan Rohrabacher.

and whine in Paki papers is prob. right ..

Pakistan does have a caucus on the Hill but it is small and ineffective. The Indian caucus, however, has grown gradually in size and influence and is now the second most effective lobby after Israel’s.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Jan 2016 21:18

Transformational year 2015: U.S. envoy Richard Verma

2015 was an unprecedented year in defence relationship as India and the United States began merging their critical defence and strategic needs, said U.S. envoy Richard Verma in a year-end statement.

“We held the first-ever Strategic and Commercial Dialogue, merging our commercial and strategic issues to help power the growth of both our countries. We established secure lines between our two National Security Advisers, and between the President and Prime Minister, so that important, time-sensitive issues could be tackled directly by our leaders. We launched a trilateral ministerial dialogue between Japan, India and the United States, and we entered into a Joint Strategic Vision for cooperation across the Asia Pacific with India,” Mr. Verma said.

Just ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. in September, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved USD 2.5 billion deal for 22 Apache attack helicopters and 15 Chinook heavy lift helicopters. The Apaches will be the first offensive military platform India has contracted from the U.S. as the big ticket sales used to be logistic and transport-related in nature.

Mr. Verma also noted that Manohar Parrikar became the first Indian Defence Minister to visit the U.S. Pacific Command in the first week of December 2015. During Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s visit to the U.S. both sides agreed to expand the scope of the projects under DTTI (Defence Technology and Trade Initiative). A list of projects is currently being prepared in both countries which are expected to be exchanged in the next couple of months.

The ambassador pointed out that the year saw the United States reach out to India seeking help in episodes of crises.

“We called upon India for help to evacuate U.S. nationals from Yemen, and we worked together with India and others to help the people of Nepal after a devastating earthquake. We elevated our strategic partnership to “strategic plus” – signifying that we work together at a much higher level, in more places, and on more different subjects,” he said.

“President Obama was the first U.S. President to be the Chief Guest for India’s Republic Day ceremonies in January. Months later, Secretary of Defence Carter was the first Defence Secretary to visit an Indian military command,” said the envoy.

Very impressive mile-stones.

member_29089 · Post by **member_29089** » 12 Jan 2016 21:56

Amber G. wrote:Transformational year 2015: U.S. envoy Richard Verma
2015 was an unprecedented year in defence relationship as India and the United States began merging their critical defence and strategic needs, said U.S. envoy Richard Verma in a year-end statement.

“We held the first-ever Strategic and Commercial Dialogue, merging our commercial and strategic issues to help power the growth of both our countries. We established secure lines between our two National Security Advisers, and between the <snip> we entered into a Joint Strategic Vision for cooperation across the Asia Pacific with India,” Mr. Verma said.

Just ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. in September, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved USD 2.5 billion deal for 22 Apache attack helicopters and 15 Chinook heavy lift helicopters. The Apaches will be the first offensive military platform India has contracted from the U.S. as the big ticket sales used to be logistic and transport-related in nature.

Mr. Verma also noted that Manohar Parrikar became the first Indian Defence Minister to visit the U.S. Pacific Command in the first week of December 2015. During Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s visit to the U.S. both sides agreed to expand the scope of the projects under DTTI (Defence Technology and Trade Initiative). A list of projects is currently being prepared in both countries which are expected to be exchanged in the next couple of months.

The ambassador pointed out that the year saw the United States reach out to India seeking help in episodes of crises.

“We called upon India for help to evacuate U.S. nationals from Yemen, and we worked together with India and others to help the people of Nepal after a devastating earthquake. We elevated our strategic partnership to “strategic plus” – signifying that we work together at a much higher level, in more places, and on more different subjects,” he said.

“President Obama was the first U.S. President to be the Chief Guest for India’s Republic Day ceremonies in January. Months later, Secretary of Defence Carter was the first Defence Secretary to visit an Indian military command,” said the envoy.

Very impressive mile-stones.

Saar, your expectations are way too low or you are joking.

"launched a dialogue" is not a milestone
"entering into a Strategic Vision Cooperation" (whatever that means) is certainly not a milestone
"Parrikar visiting Pacific Command" is not a milestone
"Obama watching Republic Day Parade" is not a milestone

Please wake me up when ONE of below happens.

- Stopping all aid and weapons sales to Bakistan
- Extraditing David Headly to India
- Vacating Diego Garcia and handing it over to India - renamed it as Ganesha Dweep
- Share nuclear weapons data (sim results) with India
- Share aircraft carrier design details with India
- Share aircraft engine tech with India

All else is a secret combination of fluff, hot-air, and gober

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 12 Jan 2016 23:34

^^ Please to not poo-poo gober to this level. The humble gober is the fuel that still cooks for and feeds all those invisibles living under the magical $1 line. I am not ashamed to have picked it up and helped in its use as a child, having grown up in a household that used it for flooring AND cooking. One ought to be if associated with the muck you list.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Jan 2016 02:31

Shreeman wrote:^^ Please to not poo-poo gober to this level. The humble gober is the fuel that still cooks for and feeds all those invisibles living under the magical $1 line. I am not ashamed to have picked it up and helped in its use as a child, having grown up in a household that used it for flooring AND cooking. One ought to be if associated with the muck you list.

OK, I am not afraid to ask questions. I am having trouble looking up "gober". What is this magical material? Is it what I think it is? We kids in west Texas used to fling it like flying saucers across the field at each other. Great fun.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 13 Jan 2016 02:47

I merely posted a newspaper article, with link, with minimal editorial comment, yet it did not stop one to comment on my "way too low expectations" and other to pile on using words like 'gobar' /sigh/

. As others have right of their own opinion, I generally ignore these but let me respond -- this time. Hope this is helpful.

GunterH wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Transformational year 2015: U.S. envoy Richard Verma
.

Saar, your expectations are way too low or you are joking.

GunterHji, No, I am not joking and my expectations are not low, at least by any sane standards.

Please wake me up when ONE of below happens.

No disrespect but as they say, one can not wake up who pretends to remain sleeping.

Except for "Stopping all weapons sales to Pakistan", which should have happened long ago, all other points you have listed in your post are kind of silly or as you put it combination of fluff, hot-air ityadi..(in my humble opinion, of course - No disrespect to you)

For example, let me just give my perspective on David Headley -- who BTW is now a prosecution witness in Mumbai, which all GoI official think is a good (and of major significance) thing - not my thinking alone but per their statements in news papers.

But did you know that David Headley roamed in Mumbai freely, multiple times, under Indian intelligence nose , hobnobbing with well known and famous people and Indian authorities were so incompetent that they did not have a clue. He got a Visa from Indian consulate who did not do their job of even a simple background check.

If they did any background check they would have found out about his name change and Paki background. His father's name (in Visa application) was phony (which simple googling would have discovered), his mother (whose name was correctly entered) worked for Paki embassy in Washington which simple background check would ought to have discovered and raised concerns. Background check would have also discovered that he had record with Chicago police. Thankfully we have learned and now better background check is done for an Indian Visa. My point is not to pile on India, (US made a lot of mistakes in 9/11 visa cases too) but to point out it is unhelpful to through insults and criticize just to score a point. Hopefully we all learned from mistakes.

Thus the intelligence sharing and cooperation between USA and India has hugely improved. As an American scientist I have personally interacted, both formally and informally with Indian counter parts. I have met Indian officers, (including one who interrogated Kasab), getting trained in USA and sharing and learning from American counterparts. Teams from LA and NY have travelled to Mumbai to learn and share. As far as I can tell everyone, who was involved was happy. You don't have to take my word for this, just look at many statements from GoI and USA -- reported in media too.

NaMo (and other officials) are invited even to sensitive technical/business areas which in past were for only close friends. Not too many will get a tour of Tesla or Google, like NaMo did. (remember NaMo was not given a Visa just a few years ago) This is a sea change from just a few years ago when US visa's were refused for flimsy reason for Indian Scientists. (I still remember we were unsuccessful to help obtained a Visa for an IIT undergraduate to present a paper in pure math in an US university not too many years ago - I am still a little upset about that)

I am sure some will pooh-pooh all this, but from where I stand I see a big change. (For perspective, I have been in USA for 40+ years so I may have some historic perspective)

- Extraditing David Headly to India

As said before, he is available (and will be very useful) as a prosecution witness in Mumbai. As far as "Extraditing to India", some may say, it may not be bad. After all, Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh and Maulana Masood Azhar (all implicated in events like 9/11, 26/11 and Pathankot!!!)
were in Indian Jails, only to be handed over, on a silver platter to Pakistan.

(Again my point is not to pile on India, but just to point out that ad-hominem criticism of US is not really helpful

)

Share nuclear weapons data with India

I must tell you that weapons data is not shared even among all US citizens. For example I NEVER asked my guru(s) (an Indian physicist who worked for GoI, and US physicist who worked in Manhattan Project) for any such data , and even if I asked, they would just say I don't need to know

.. But I did learn a lot of other things from them which were very useful. Feynman taught physics and inspired many (so that anyone can know, if one wants to know, HOW to calculate/measure U235 scattering cross-section, for example, rather than using Paki method to steal the data

)

So let me leave you with this thought --

If you know some really bright student (need not be in nuclear physics), there are good schools in US which will welcome her. And she can take that knowledge back too. That my friend is better than some silly sim data which India does not even need or care.

Peace!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 13 Jan 2016 02:54

TSJones wrote: OK, I am not afraid to ask questions. I am having trouble looking up "gober". What is this magical material? .

It is cow-dung. Used as a bio-fuel ( good > 20,000J / gm - more energy per gram than a typical Chocolate Chip Cookie). Here, I believe it was used as a metaphor for "hot air".

(Like BED (Banana Eq. Dose about .1 micro Sv) I use for radiation, I use C^3 in US and (Chocolate Chip Cookie) or UDG in India ( for usli desi ghee ) for energy density for units which students can relate too.)

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Jan 2016 02:59

AmberG., just an observation - Shreeman'ji was just supporting you. All he did was poo-poo'ed GunterH'jis argument so bliss not to take any umbrage.

TSJones'ji - yes. Gober is also used as organic flying saucers by kids during play. In India it has multi-use - including sealing of packed dirt floors and reinforcing mud walls. Of course used as fuel as well. Some of it goes back into fields.

So when we curse governments across the world and call it Gobernment (the etymology of that word again has a great story!) you sure will understand. In that sense, americans are like indians only

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Jan 2016 03:01

- Share aircraft carrier design details with India
- Share aircraft engine tech with India

India has asked for help in specific areas, which seems like are on the way.

On the topic of asking, what is the use of asking for help designing a 65 K ton non-nuclear carrier? The guys who designed that ship for the US are either dead or really old.

Or did you want India to upgrade to a nuclear 100 K boat?

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 13 Jan 2016 04:55

And the defenders pile on... "torn shirt open fly"...sigh.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 13 Jan 2016 05:38

Some tidbit -
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella will be Michelle Obama's guest at Tuesday's State of the Union address..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jan 2016 06:02

South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley will give Republican response to Obama last State of Union (SOU) address.

Its interesting that both first and last Republican response to Obama's SOU are given by Indian-Americans : Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 13 Jan 2016 06:44

Feel good speech onlee.

America is going to go further into economic crisis. War is around the corner and everyone knows it.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 13 Jan 2016 07:34

^ RoyG sahab, can you elaborate on both those points please...My spider sense tells me the same, but would love to hear your reasoning...

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Jan 2016 07:42

ramana wrote:South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley will give Republican response to Obama last State of Union (SOU) address.

Its interesting that both first and last Republican response to Obama's SOU are given by Indian-Americans : Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley.

It is because the Republicans have so few minorities that support them. There may be many people including Indian immigrants that support Republican party ideals, but do not support their racist agenda.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 13 Jan 2016 07:49

Re. the speech, not much to say indeed. its a resume building consolation prize for an operative whose career has hit the glass ceiling.

Re. economy, modulo china there is not much else negative. There is no war on the horizon, its an election year. Economy will probably do good in the leadup, the democrats want that. Then by summer it will have a few hiccups republicans need that. thats about all that will happen this year.

china could upset something but otherwise the population is evaluating the monarch of next eight. no one has the time or interest to upset something big.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 13 Jan 2016 07:53

Cain Marko wrote:^ RoyG sahab, can you elaborate on both those points please...My spider sense tells me the same, but would love to hear your reasoning...

Markoji,

If you listen closely to his speech it started out as feel good and then turned into a warning. He pretty much said, there was a lot of pressure on me to go to war and I held out. I can't guarantee the next assh*le will. I think he sees Trump as a huge threat. He focused on Muslims a lot in the speech. He def sees radical white protestantism turning into fascism. He also focused on corporates and reforming the political process through public financing of campaigns, district lines, etc. It didn't invoke much emotion until about the end but that's because people became more fearful. It wasn't b/c of hope.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 13 Jan 2016 08:01

This Nikki Haley is irritating coconut. Brown on the outside, white on the inside. Tries too hard with that fake Southern accent just like Jindal. She's proud that she is the daughter of Indian immigrants, but hates the culture.

GOP response was weak too. LOL. God bless America. It's over.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Jan 2016 08:19

A quasi yindoo but full blown dharmic Tulsi Gabbard can teach any of those India hating politicians of the west. Hail Tulsi before she is baptized!

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 13 Jan 2016 09:36

SaiK wrote:A quasi yindoo but full blown dharmic Tulsi Gabbard can teach any of those India hating politicians of the west. Hail Tulsi before she is baptized!

She seems pretty comfortable with hinduism. I think she'll stick with it. It'll look stupid to everyone if she converts at this stage in her political career. I see presidential potential in her maybe 8 years down the road.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 13 Jan 2016 10:43

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 13 Jan 2016 10:44

RoyG unfortunately for Dems, sotu speech is a total letdown. Iimho, this is one of the weakest sotu speech in the last 2-3 decades. Nciky Haley (née randhawa) while not great was better than bobby "piyush" jindal. Megan Kelly was saying she could be picked for VP. Let us wait and see. Democrat Obama did not do great service to either ms. Clinton's or to the Democratic Party today.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 13 Jan 2016 11:03

vayu tuvan wrote:RoyG unfortunately for Dems, sotu speech is a total letdown. Iimho, this is one of the weakest sotu speech in the last 2-3 decades. Nciky Haley (née randhawa) while not great was better than bobby "pious have" jindal. Megan Kelly was saying she could be picked for VP. Let us wait and see. Democrat Obama did not do great service to either ms. Clinton's or to the Democratic Party today.

He's tired. He just wants to gtfo of the white house and spend time with his family and relax. You're right about this being the weakest SOTU speech in a long time. IMO, Trump is going to take the lead this year. Heck even Colonel Sanders is emerging a more likely dem candidate than Clinton. She seems to have lost her spark.

America is going through a bit of a geopolitical contraction. They will fall back on White Protestantism and War to get some internal fire going. They won't let India, Russia, China, etc. fill the void. They will try to scorch the Earth as they retreat and then push out again.

The people who run the institutions, churches, corporates including MIC, and bankers run the country together. Pointless to expect some half breed President to change the course of the country.

The Republicans hate this guy with a passion and they seem to want the white house a lot more than the democrats this time. I think they're going to get it.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 13 Jan 2016 20:01

Is it possible that Obama is looking to sabotage Dem chances so that there is no way Hillary can get to the White House. Kinda like our Advani tried but failed pathetically in 2014.

saip · Post by **saip** » 13 Jan 2016 20:37

vayu tuvan wrote:"Three strikes you'r out" is used to discipline kids (my experience - ymmv)

It is three strikes and you are IN.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Jan 2016 20:59

RoyG unfortunately for Dems, sotu speech is a total letdown. Iimho, this is one of the weakest sotu speech in the last 2-3 decades. Nciky Haley (née randhawa) while not great was better than bobby "pious have" jindal. Megan Kelly was saying she could be picked for VP. Let us wait and see. Democrat Obama did not do great service to either ms. Clinton's or to the Democratic Party today.

The President was clear about it: the 5-10 year vision - in fact at one point he clearly stated "If you want tips on Iowa let me know. I will be shaking hands after .........." (paraphrasing).

So, why would anyone expect an immediate impact? Or a support speech for Dems (I think he left that to Biden, who gave an interview prior to the SOTU, essentially beating up on Hillary)?

This was perhaps one of Obama's best speeches, ever. And, as my Senator, one who spent a lot of time with Indians, I have heard him for about 15-20 years now.

As usual people have expectations and prefer not to listen with an open mind. And, certainly those that have expectations will not hear what they want to hear and thus there is bound to be a difference.

He was also very clear about his relations with Congress - he will go it alone.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 13 Jan 2016 21:10

RoyG wrote:
Markoji,

If you listen closely to his speech it started out as feel good and then turned into a warning. He pretty much said, there was a lot of pressure on me to go to war and I held out. I can't guarantee the next assh*le will. I think he sees Trump as a huge threat. He focused on Muslims a lot in the speech. He def sees radical white protestantism turning into fascism. He also focused on corporates and reforming the political process through public financing of campaigns, district lines, etc. It didn't invoke much emotion until about the end but that's because people became more fearful. It wasn't b/c of hope.

Interesting saar, media is spinning this as there is no big war as per bo....otoh, we have shades of alliances taking place along us vs roos lines....us,oirope,gulf et al....vs roos, cheen, iran. Seems like india is increasingly moving away from roos...modis visit seemed like a damp squib...

Otoh heard some economist chap say that recession is on as per seven year cycle and slow start to stock market is indicative...all in all, strange times

Btw on that repubs hating ombaba bit, can't agree more...it's bordering bizarre...hating omama is prerequisite to being republican.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Jan 2016 21:29

well hating modi is a pre-requisite to be a top-congi too. forget policy debate.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 13 Jan 2016 21:30

Kashi wrote:And the defenders pile on... "torn shirt open fly"...sigh.

Kashi: nobody is going to give tech. for free. So either India pays for their ignorance or tighten the belt and spend to develop internally. I think Current govt. wants to do the latter. Good for India in the long run.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 14 Jan 2016 01:18

US Congress Moves Against Pakistani F-16 Deal

Usman Ansari, Defense News

ISLAMABAD — The US Congress is reported to have stymied Pakistani efforts to further acquire F-16 fighter jets, according to reports in local media. Analysts say the move could have implications for the bilateral relationship at a sensitive time if the proposed deal stalls altogether.

The deal has apparently been put on hold by Congress in an effort to impede its progress, something the Obama administration is reportedly attempting to reverse.

The news was first reported by Pakistan's 'Dawn' media group on Tuesday, citing local diplomatic and congressional sources. It claimed the moves were being spearheaded by increasingly anti-Pakistani/pro-Indian lawmakers, naming and quoting Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Calif., as examples.

The proposed deal was first revealed in November 2015, with a formal FMS notification made in early December.

Considering the forces arrayed against it, Brian Cloughley, former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, said he thinks much uncertainty now surrounds the proposed sale due to Congress' machinations, despite it not being killed completely.

"Congress is well aware of the fact that it is gravely discommoding Pakistan, but has no qualms about that," he said. "The arrangement for supply of the eight aircraft, as proposed, however, is not dead, but it will require a great deal of work by the Administration to revive it — and the White House might not be keen on that."

Similarly, Claude Rakisits, nonresident senior fellow the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, is not optimistic on the matter, and said he believes congressional opposition could grow.

"The sale of the F-16s is not looking promising," Rakisits said. "And if the sale of the F-16s has now effectively stalled in a Senate dominated by the generally Pakistan-friendly Republican Party, I would have thought that such a sale to go ahead in a possible Democratic-majority Senate following the 2016 congressional elections would be even more unlikely."

He expressed some surprise at the turn of events considering the previous Republican attitude towards Pakistan, plus recent efforts that were helping smooth over past differences.

"That the sale of the F-16s has met such opposition is somewhat surprising given that bilateral relations between the two countries have very much improved lately," Rakisits said. "It has been particularly so since the Pakistan army launched its counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations in Pakistan's tribal areas in June 2014. The Pakistan army has been very effective in hunting down the Pakistan and Afghan Taliban fighters. The number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan has dropped dramatically as a result."

Rakisits continued: "President Obama and high-level officials recently hosted separately Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Gen Raheel Sharif. Both visits went very well."

As a result, Rakisits said "such negative congressional reaction to the sale of the F-16s will come as a deep disappointment to officials in Islamabad."

Pakistan's disappointment is closely linked with events concerning Afghanistan.

"Not only will that be the case because the Pakistan military has been conducting operations against the Haqqani Network hiding in the tribal areas, as repeatedly asked to do so by the Obama administration for years, but also because it has been assisting in trying to get the Afghan peace process back on track. For example, the inaugural quadrilateral meeting of the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan on this issue was held in Islamabad on Monday."

Following the recent terrorist attack on an Indian air force base however Obama may not be so enthusiastic in pushing the deal forward.

Should the deal not transpire, Rakisits said it would be "a big mistake on the part of Congress."

"Already Washington's influence in Pakistan is fast diminishing, and has increasingly been the case since the US pulled most of its troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014" he said. "As a result, and not surprisingly, this has meant that Pakistan has moved deeper and deeper into China's geo-strategic orbit. And the latest $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor project further consolidates Pakistan's long-standing relationship with China."

Deepening Pakistan-China ties should not be a surprise to Washington, however.

"With an eye on a rising China, starting under President Bush and continued under President Obama, Washington has made it very clear that in the long-term India would play a more important role than Pakistan in its geo-strategic calculations for the region," Rakisits said.

The likely result is also well appreciated by Congress, but other factors have overridden these concerns.

"Congress knows the geo-strategic implications of refusing to sell the F-16s to Pakistan but the Indian lobby is very effective. And, quite frankly, Muslims are unfortunately not the flavor-of-the-month in this presidential and congressional election year, and as we know all congressmen and many Republican senators are up for re-election in November," he said.

Pakistan's air force modernization efforts would almost certainly be negatively affected without an F-16 deal.

"It is impossible for any air force to undertake long-term planning for the purposes of national defense policy if there is no guarantee that supply of its main platforms, and replacements, as originally planned, will continue," said Cloughley.

However, Cloughly said he doesn't think the stalled F-16 deal will affect a deal for 15 AH-1Z helicopter gunships announced in April 2015.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 14 Jan 2016 01:27

Cloughly is a long time apologist for the Pakistan military and their terrorist associates. I am surprised he is still alive.Together with Robyn Raphael, the former madam taliban, they continue to represent TSP in the West. Cloughly, allegedly has a prediliction for males of a certain faith.

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 14 Jan 2016 03:43

RoyG wrote:This Nikki Haley is irritating coconut. Brown on the outside, white on the inside. Tries too hard with that fake Southern accent just like Jindal.

She was born and brought up in the South. Why would she not have a Southern accent, and why do you think it is fake?

Haley gave a good speech, IMO. She is taking more heat for it from the right-wing white nationalist Trump supporters than from anyone else, left or right. Good for her.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 14 Jan 2016 04:10

NRao wrote: This was perhaps one of Obama's best speeches, ever. And, as my Senator, one who spent a lot of time with Indians, I have heard him for about 15-20 years now.

Absolutely agree with that. (BTW most polls I saw (discounting Trump's tweets or BRF posts) - showed unprecedented +ive ratings too).

Republicans had a big chance, but shamefully they blew the last 7 years doing nothing more than demonizing Obama and gridlocking everything -- sometimes even the most obvious good things -- often without any sensible reason. Did everyone nothing but harm. Hope India's opposition learns from this and has better sense than just show how they hate NaMo.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 14 Jan 2016 05:03

vayu tuvan wrote:Kashi: nobody is going to give tech. for free. So either India pays for their ignorance or tighten the belt and spend to develop internally. I think Current govt. wants to do the latter. Good for India in the long run.

That was not the point I was making..I was referring to the exchanges between GunterH and Amber G. and the followup interjections.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 14 Jan 2016 07:14

The U.S. is cracking down on anonymous real estate buyers