IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

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srai
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by srai »

Philip wrote:"Tech transfer" for the LCA,which is about to fly at Bahrain! Nameplate sticker tech or screwdriver tech at this late stage? This is a bogus point meant to justify the inexcusable cost. ...
Well ... the French (and others) have been saying you can have as much technology as you can absorb ... but they will define when India is "ready" :P It's a clever ploy not to say no directly and delay giving any meaningful technology until when India itself is on the verge of equivalent indigenous realization. If ToT is timed right by them, they aim to halt India's own mature efforts in that area with restrictive clauses once "given" in the guise of "strategic friendship" and of course lots of cash.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

Many years ago there was this report about Arjun.Denied the German engine on the Leopard ,we were developing our own.The day we announced that we'd had success with a prototype pat came the German offer.The rest as they say is history. My fear is that the Raffy deal will beggar the IAF's budget in a time of acute financial crisis.The rupee has sunk to its lowest ever.The GOI must mix the inventory.Rupee-Rouble deals for Ru eqpt and numbers,why even 5+ years of essential spares along with each type will cost a lot less.Saab selling their 3% share of Pipavav to the R Co. means that they may have thrown in the towel with the Raffy deal about to touchdown.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Nikhil T »

This is a giant drain on our resources - we desperately need a CDS to tell the MoD and IAF that there is a better use of this money in other services.

Second, I really think PM's move to commit buying 36 Planes in France before any price negotiation was a blunder. It was clear that many in the GoI were surprised and later tried to justify with weird theories like 'by buying 90 planes less, we saved $15B' and that we will now get a 25% discount over original prices. Is the $250M a pop at 25% discount - meaning we had earlier a quote of $300M+?

We've already done some mistakes
- Drafting super high requirements that led planes such as Gripen and the teens dropping out
- Shortlisting the top two, most expensive planes and then not forcing EF and Rafale in a two way negotiation fight
- Theories like we have no plan B
- Committing to buy 36, by no less than the PM in a Joint Statement

We will now further dig ourselves into a hole, like media reports say, we sign a formal intent on 36 planes without the circus of prices/offsets/weapons/spares/uptime decided.

/rant
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by fanne »

Well Modi can keep negotiating for next 10 years!!
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by SaiK »

the french quoted earlier for 118 fighter jets at around $8-12b ranged and all the way went to $20b for additional 80 puppies. when modi ji said, we only need 36.. the french went cool! 36 for $20b ! deal! i mean, it may appear like a joke but this is exactly the french are doing.

honestly, we don't need the rafale at all now. let us focus on LCA Mk2 and on to AMCA. It is money well worth for establishing local industries and labs. the faster we move into self-reliance, the faster we end up burning midnight oil for these deals. this is pure waste!
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by srai »

^^^

None of the MRCA contenders would have supplied over 100 aircraft at those $8-12b figure you mention. That estimated (and unrealistic) budget was set by GoI/MoD/IAF and the Indian media. All the MRCA contenders played along. When LCC, ToT, 50% offset, license production, manufacturer guarantee and weapons are/were added it was always going to more than $20b easily. So when L1 was chosen under false pretense and reared its ugly fangs when actual commercial negotiation began. If the French or others were going to sign a contaract for selling some 120 of their birds with all that India wanted for a low price like $8-12b, they would be the biggest fools! But they are not; they will milk India for every bit.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by John »

No surprise with revelation of current price figures for Rafale, i remember predicting that Dassault would taken navy to cleaners if we were to purchase Rafale-M and just 24 Rafale-M would cost well over 5 billion many here disagreed. Ironically i was actually on the low side IMO it would in double digit to procure Rafale-M and certify it for Ski Jump operations...
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Cain Marko »

Philip wrote:Many years ago there was this report about Arjun.Denied the German engine on the Leopard ,we were developing our own.The day we announced that we'd had success with a prototype pat came the German offer.
I have heard of similar tales in other areas as well...heh heh - may be we should take a leaf from the Cheenis and simply announce that we have had a breakthrough with the Kaveri and that we don't need any more phoren engines....perhaps we get lots of new offers, no?
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by member_29294 »

Cain Marko wrote: I have heard of similar tales in other areas as well...heh heh - may be we should take a leaf from the Cheenis and simply announce that we have had a breakthrough with the Kaveri and that we don't need any more phoren engines....perhaps we get lots of new offers, no?
Cheenis have good control of their media, unlike our anti-national presstitutes that are constantly trying to undermine and tarnish desi products for foreign interests. It would never work here. India has unfortunately never been very good at being secretive.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by SaiK »

Negotiation Gap, Money Constraints Prevent Rafale Deal From Taking Off
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 230449.ece

“Contract cost of the 36 Rafale has reached approximately $12 billion under flyway condition with weapon systems and a maintenance support package. It is way beyond our anticipated calculations. Efforts are on to negotiate it,”

France has agreed to 30 per cent offsets in the Rafale deal
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by member_24684 »

SaiK wrote:Negotiation Gap, Money Constraints Prevent Rafale Deal From Taking Off
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 230449.ece

“Contract cost of the 36 Rafale has reached approximately $12 billion under flyway condition with weapon systems and a maintenance support package. It is way beyond our anticipated calculations. Efforts are on to negotiate it,”

France has agreed to 30 per cent offsets in the Rafale deal
Looks like the media playing the key role by escalating price day by day ..! aren't we buying the entire production line of MBDA missile systems for the next ten years
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by viveks »

I will put my money in a bet that this will not go through... :D
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Singha »

12b was supposed to get us 126 lol

fail the scam
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Arunkumar »

If the price is simultaneously appearing across the DDM before the deal is signed, it is more for mischeif sake than for news. I feel price would be way lower than what is being reported. Presstitutes at work again.

NDTV being the apostle of truth and always has India's interest at heart we should wait till 26 Jan when the deal is signed.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Austin »

Looks like final FUD in media every one is coming with its own figures quoting "unknown sources" , Lets wait till 26th Jan for the suspense to end.

Vishnu Som figure of $8 billion with Life Cycle Support and 90 % uptimes looks more credible for now but would still wait till they sign on dotted lines.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by abhik »

We already have a approximate of what the Rafale will cost, which is about $250 million a piece inclusive of weapons. For 36 units that comes up to $9 billion. Are people still expecting $90 mil wikipedia unit cost?
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

The unit cost is that of the fighter. The weapons costs are extra and its been always known that EU/French weapons are among the most costly in the world on..It appears they want a multi-year spare/support deal along with that as well, possibly one for 5--10 years. That adds to the cost as well.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Viv S »

Austin wrote:Vishnu Som figure of $8 billion with Life Cycle Support and 90 % uptimes looks more credible for now but would still wait till they sign on dotted lines.
$10 billion according to Vishnu's article published on 14th Jan. But yes lets wait and see.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the deal will be dropped and Modi-Hollande would instead sign an MoU for a batch of Scorpenes. Although that could just be wishful thinking on my part. :)
Last edited by Viv S on 17 Jan 2016 14:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

^ Also, that article points to a spares support for 5 or 10 years and not 'Life cycle support'
NDTV has learned that the all-in price is likely to be in the range of 65,000 crores or nearly $10 billion, which includes the cost of 36 fighter jets in fly-away condition, weapon systems, and a support maintenance package. India still needs to decide whether it will immediately fund a large order of all spare parts that the aircraft will need for a period of either five or ten years.
Last edited by brar_w on 17 Jan 2016 14:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Viv S »

brar_w wrote:^ Also, that article points to a spares support for 5 or 10 years and not 'Life cycle support'
Yeah that too.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Austin »

brar_w wrote:^ Also, that article points to a spares support for 5 or 10 years and not 'Life cycle support'
NDTV has learned that the all-in price is likely to be in the range of 65,000 crores or nearly $10 billion, which includes the cost of 36 fighter jets in fly-away condition, weapon systems, and a support maintenance package. India still needs to decide whether it will immediately fund a large order of all spare parts that the aircraft will need for a period of either five or ten years.
Yes there is much more to it than spares and weapon , its complete Life Cycle Support and unsaid is its role to be hardwired for Nuclear Role confirmed by Vishnu Som
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

Yes there is much more to it than spares and weapon , its complete Life Cycle Support and unsaid is its role to be hardwired for Nuclear Role confirmed by Vishnu Som
Most OEM's would offer life-cycle product support but the bulk of the cost is that of spares and services that directly influence Mission capability rates. That portion is not for the LIFE CYCLE but includes only 5 or 10 years worth of spares package included as part of the deal. Additional support contracts would have to be signed after that as is usual practice for most PBL deals. Unless the IAF plans to only operate these aircraft for 5 or 10 years, such a deal could not be defined as including life-cycle costs and even the author in question hasn't used that very term in his article published on Jan.14.

The nuclear role piece looks doubtful since none of the issues mentioned earlier have not been addressed. Will dassault conduct a full test program to clear Indian nukes on the rafale?
Last edited by brar_w on 17 Jan 2016 15:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Karan M »

Aforesaid journo has been pushing the Gripen. I'd rather wait for official confirmation than trusting all these speculative reports.

Each time one of these reports emerges one journo puts his finger in his ear, smells it or examines the entrails of a dead rat and pronounces a new figure. :lol: :lol:
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Arunkumar »

I have a suspicion, the moment this deal is inked, swedes might declare a sale to pak in fav munna prices and media might all go gaga on how cheap this was and something wrong with Rafale pricing and how it must be stopped....and so on...
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Karan M »

Apart from the F-16s which should have ~80% serviceability, the rest of the PAF would be lucky to even have 50% serviceability. Those 50 JF-17s are mostly hanger queens and testbeds at this point. The Chinese and older French stuff had sub par 50% servicability in 2002 itself, things would only have declined since then..

No wonder the Pakistanis resort to terrorism against us.. in a stand up shooting war, their weaknesses are much more than ours and would be quickly exposed in short order.. their generals are also thoroughly corrupt.

So forget purchases from Swedes etc. They couldnt even afford J-10s.

Need of the hour on our side should be to retire all the old junk and get a decent availability fleet up and running asap.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

This is Kafkaesque! $12B for just 36 Moulin Rouge dancers? That is over $300M a pop! Now for that price,"made-in-India" MKIs are approx. just $75M,with 70% indigenous material used.Therefore,one would get 4 MKIs,made in India (as Mr.Modi wants) not imported mind you,which even if they came with a 50% availability,would still give you two MIIs for just one Raffy,and the Raffy at the impossible availability fig of "90%" in Indian conditions. If it were MIG-29UGs,that would be 8 aircraft,LCAs,12 (!) and even if one wanted something other than Natasha,Irina,Olga or Svetlana,the Gripen even at MKI prices would give us 4 Scandinavian blondes for the price of one French filly!

This must be the most questionable decision by the Delhi Durbar since the days of one Md.Bin Tughlak.

PS:Nigeria has just signed on for "3" JF-17s. Testing the waters what? :rotfl:

Kaflaesque:
Perhaps this might explain the term.Substitute the Raffy and its cost for the "father" and the return for the nation for the weight...you get the picture?
"The sense of catastrophe was just around the corner, and therefore meals can become tense. Kafka played food off against this big, heavy chunk of a father who filled his face, and as the father got bigger and heavier, Kafka himself got thinner and thinner. At close to 6 feet tall, he weighed about 115 pounds."
:rotfl:
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Viv S »

Easy up on the bold font Philip.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

Jawohl,mein Fuhrer!
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by member_22539 »

Philip wrote:Jawohl,mein Fuhrer!
Shame on you, I was expecting something like "Da, tovarisch." :D
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

I confess a dark secret.Moi knoweth nein Cyrillic!
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Austin »

brar_w wrote:Most OEM's would offer life-cycle product support but the bulk of the cost is that of spares and services that directly influence Mission capability rates. That portion is not for the LIFE CYCLE but includes only 5 or 10 years worth of spares package included as part of the deal. Additional support contracts would have to be signed after that as is usual practice for most PBL deals. Unless the IAF plans to only operate these aircraft for 5 or 10 years, such a deal could not be defined as including life-cycle costs and even the author in question hasn't used that very term in his article published on Jan.14.

It is life cycle cost I got it from 2 source , its up to you if you wish to believe it our not
The nuclear role piece looks doubtful since none of the issues mentioned earlier have not been addressed. Will dassault conduct a full test program to clear Indian nukes on the rafale?
Not any less doubtful then M2K doing that role and would be complimented by Rafale , Not many knew of M2K capability till confirmed by WOP Chengappa

Rafele in fact is bought primarily for the unmentioned role, a fact confirmed sometime back by panwala in M2K squadron , that it can do other conventional role is equally important , Boys in Gwalior are jubillant about Rafale they some how had the vision in 2005 that Rafale would be purchase :lol:
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

I cannot fathom why the IAF have a massive Nelsonian eye when it comes to strat. bombers. We can deal with Pak delivering N-weapons anywhere using our varied range of N-tipped missiles. It is China that we need to factor in.Here the Raffy is simply too short ranged,even with refueling and tankers are large,easily detectable vulnerable targets as well,esp over enemy air space. The manner in which Russia has used its strat bombers in Syria is the way the IAF should take. We used M2ks earlier because there were no other alternatives.At that time we did not possess the range of tactical and BMs that we do now. Once Nirbhay also arrives,why would we need the ultra-expensive Raffy to fly into harm's way and risk getting shot down?

The MMRCA requirement was for 126 multi-role aircraft to deal with tactical targets using PGMs,etc.,not an N-delivery platform. This deal is a c*ck-up of the greatest magnitude.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

It is life cycle cost I got it from 2 source , its up to you if you wish to believe it our not
Define Life-Cycle-Cost please. Its an analytical calculation done for the purpose of assessing the cost. The NDTV source directly contradicts LCC. LCC includes the aircraft, full lifetime of spares, full lifetime of fuel and manpower costs. Why the heck would the MOD pay to Dassault which is not for theirs to take?

The NDTV article of Jan. 14 claims that 5 or 10 years worth of spare supply are included through a PBL-Like contract that guarantees a mission capability rate. That by itself is only logistical and supply cost for components for 5 or at the maximum 10 years. If true that DOES NOT include even the spares and support portion of the Life-Cycle-Cost.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Austin »

brar_w wrote:
It is life cycle cost I got it from 2 source , its up to you if you wish to believe it our not
Define Life-Cycle-Cost please. Its an analytical calculation done for the purpose of assessing the cost. The NDTV source directly contradicts LCC. LCC includes the aircraft, full lifetime of spares, full lifetime of fuel and manpower costs. Why the heck would the MOD pay to Dassault which is not for theirs to take?

The NDTV article of Jan. 14 claims that 5 or 10 years worth of spare supply are included through a PBL-Like contract that guarantees a mission capability rate. That by itself is only logistical and supply cost for components for 5 or at the maximum 10 years. If true that DOES NOT include even the spares and support portion of the Life-Cycle-Cost.
Rafale selection in MMRCA was itself done on basis of LCC , indeed the entire MMRCA criteria included LCC
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Austin »

Philip wrote:At that time we did not possess the range of tactical and BMs that we do now. Once Nirbhay also arrives,why would we need the ultra-expensive Raffy to fly into harm's way and risk getting shot down?
For the same reason why nations maintain triade , Why does french use M2K and Rafale for Nuke delivery because aircraft presents a unique option of man in loop , Countries who can make bombers also use the same option also fighter/bomber for tactical nuke
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

Rafale selection in MMRCA was itself done on basis of LCC , indeed the entire MMRCA criteria included LCC
I know that, and I had also mentioned earlier that MOST if not ALL western development or procurement projects of late have utilized the LCC (Life Cycle Cost) model of cost-analysis because such a model looks at all costs like development (if required), procurement, Operations and sustainment and some even the disposal cost after retirement. HOWEVER, one does not pay the LCC to any one single entity. For example things that make up the O&S portion of the LCC are spares, product support, follow on development/ugrades, fuel, system-related manpower costs and system specific infrastructure costs over its life-time. None of these are paid to the OEM. The cost of fuel, manpower etc are internal to the operator and not sources from a Lockheed, Boeing, SAAB or Dassault. Similarly, not all FOD, or upgrades would be performed by one vendor etc.

Therefore a logistical contract, like a PBL or something similar covers a portion of the O&S cost which makes up a portion of the product Life Cycle Cost. The reason all these things are taken a part of the cost-analysis is because system characteristics impact these metrics. A smaller fighter will consume less fuel, usually consume less manpower etc and therefore would have a lower Life Cycle Cost. Similarly, a more technologically advanced aircraft may have more expensive systems, but those systems may be more reliable, have less obsolesce issues down the road and therefore there may be O&S savings associated where you pay higher procurement cost for these systems, but end up paying lower LCC on account of the things mentioned above. This is why the concept of Life-Cycle-Cost is important and why it has formed the backbone of military cost analysis over the last 10-15 years and why operators and acquisition folks continue to rely on it for requirements and for selecting one vendor. the MMRCA (from what i gather) did employ the LCC model but did not fully absorb it into its analytical process as it still remained a federated system where there were technical parameters that had to be met before the lowest LCC product was selected.

So, life cycle cost calculations are an analytical way of reaching to a full cost of acquiring, and operating a system. It is not something that you would ever see in a bill, or in a contract that you sign with an OEM. The NDTV article by Vishnu is quite clear that the IAF is demanding a spare and support guarantee for a period of 5 or 10 years with a capability rate of 90%. That by itself demonstrates that they are signing a PBL like deal for 5 or 10 years and not paying life cycle cost of anything since that cost is a 'future years' cost and depends upon assumptions that may or may not hold true (what wold be the cost of fuel in 2030?).
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Viv S »

Austin wrote:For the same reason why nations maintain triade , Why does french use M2K and Rafale for Nuke delivery because aircraft presents a unique option of man in loop , Countries who can make bombers also use the same option also fighter/bomber for tactical nuke
They don't really. The ASMP-A is used for nuclear attack. The Mirage & Rafale serve purely as missile carriers. The last french free-fall nuclear bomb i.e AN-52 was retired in 1994.

Our counterpart to the French model, is a BrahMos or Nirbhay with a nuclear warhead launched from a Su-30MKI.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by BharadwajV »

Does the IAF have interest in the ASMP-A itself?
This could be for the SFC in particular.
There were news reports about the SFC requiring 40 Modern Nuke Carriers and if this is the case, then we can try to comfort ourselves about the price tag.[If the 1X Billion USD figures are to be believed]
But if these are to replace our MiG-27's then it's something shoved deep into our throats to appease the standing Frenchman.

There were other reports that mentioned that only new build Su-30 MKIs feature the BrahMos carrying capability so if these reports are to be believed, then the MKI gets the Nuke carrier role(?).......... plus the fact that the MKI rolls off the HAL Nagpur assembly line.

We should also be looking at placing an order for additional MKIs from the Irkutsk plant that is busy with the Su-30 MK 'Roos'(Su30SM), just for the "Plan B" tamasha.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

Does the IAF have interest in the ASMP-A itself?
ASMP-A will not be an option. Its part of France's strategic deterrent and I don't think is up for sale or even negotiation.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Austin »

Viv wrote:
They don't really. The ASMP-A is used for nuclear attack. The Mirage & Rafale serve purely as missile carriers. The last french free-fall nuclear bomb i.e AN-52 was retired in 1994.

Our counterpart to the French model, is a BrahMos or Nirbhay with a nuclear warhead launched from a Su-30MKI.
If you carry a nuclear warhead you can't use the same aircraft., you got to hardwire that for nuke role with specific electronics PAL stuff, doesn't matter if they carry free fall or missile. Also harden it against emp effect

French use both M2K n Rafale for that role , we use the former and when Rafale comes in that would the case too

I got that from horses mouth so see no reason to doubt that
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