IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 24 Jan 2016 23:15

I don't want to say this but if we're cutting back on Rafale to a number below 126 and if IAF does not want to fill numbers with MKI, please think about 32 Mirage-2000-9 from UAE. They also have another 36 M2K which have been substantially upgraded to M2K-5/9 standard. Best way to arrest squadron decline, leverage existing infrastructure and internal know how. We can add at least three squadrons here and bring them to speed over next 2-3 years.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 24 Jan 2016 23:15

Philip wrote:Please read and understand my posts pl. LCA exports will be dismal if left to our rate of prod. and glorious track record of being a world-class arms exporter. It is to be seen if HAL can deliver the goods even for the IAF! Israel would be an ideal JV partner,but there would be many nations (Malaysia,Indonesia,etc.) that would not want to deal with Israel,hence Russia. Once again,it is for export to nations that operate/operated thousands of MIG-21s,etc.,not neccessarily for the RuAF which already has defined the MIG-29/35 as the "light" end of its aerial "stick".

The only offer to date is from SAAB ,to assist in the LCA dev.,but has its own competitor in the Gripen. If HAL/ADA can leverage the LCA design into a modified MK-2 with stealth features ,it could be a game changer,both capability and cost wise.

Just like the Swedes, the Russians also have a conflict of interest in that they're trying to flog both the MiG-35 and the Su-30 on the world market.

If we do tie up with a foreign manufacturer to facilitate exports, it has to be one that can provide genuine value-addition and that doesn't have a diverging focus. An apt example of a doomed partnership being the BAE-Saab tie-up over Gripen that turned sour when both the Eurofighter & Gripen found themselves in the running for the Austrian contract.

For India, only two companies meet that criteria - BAE & Boeing*. With both the Super Hornet and Eurofighter scheduled to go out of production within the next two years, there's no conflict of interest. And they can provide the necessary customization (Link 16 + comms) and marketing to sell the Tejas to the smaller European customers.

*Dassault Rafale, UAC MiG-35/Su-30, Saab Gripen, LM/KAI FA-50, IAI Kfir.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 24 Jan 2016 23:18

rohitvats wrote:I don't want to say this but if we're cutting back on Rafale to a number below 126 and if IAF does not want to fill numbers with MKI, please think about 32 Mirage-2000-9 from UAE. They also have another 36 M2K which have been substantially upgraded to M2K-5/9 standard. Best way to arrest squadron decline, leverage existing infrastructure and internal know how. We can add at least three squadrons here and bring them to speed over next 2-3 years.

Plus another squadron from Qatar.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 24 Jan 2016 23:47

so no intercept missions needed foxbat++ because of BVR advancements? the migs (chinese have already taken a version?) now talk about the 4+mach 41s.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Jan 2016 00:55

For SU-35 cost comparisons with the Raffy,take a dekko at this report from Janes'.With FGFA arrival delayed,Russia is opting for large numbers of SU-35s and SU-32s at very low cost thanks to exports as well.

http://www.janes.com/article/57187/russ ... e-fighters

Russia orders 50 Su-35S multirole fighters
Nikolai Novichkov, Moscow - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
13 January 2016
Russia is understood to have ordered 50 more Su-35S fighter aircraft from UAC. Source: IHS/Patrick Allen

The Russian Aerospace Force (VKS) ordered 50 Sukhoi Su-35S 'Flanker E' multirole fighters from Sukhoi in late December 2015, a United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) source told TASS-DEFENSE.

According to the source, the new order is valued at more than RUB60 billion (USD788 million) and the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KnAAZ, a Sukhoi affiliate) will build the aircraft. Thus, it will have had its hands full until 2020. In addition to this order, the period is to see the execution of China's order for 24 Su-35S's, while the company hopes to sign a contract with Indonesia for 12 aircraft soon. According to the source, initially, the Su-35S program was expected to pay its way after 72 aircraft had been built. If the contract with Indonesia is signed, a total of 134 fighters of the type will have been delivered to the customers before 2020.

According to the UAC source, talks with Algeria on 12 Sukhoi Su-32 tactical bombers - an export variant of the Su-34 'Fullback' - have made good progress, and the country may acquire up to 40 aircraft of the type.

Russia's order in 2009 for 48 Su-35S's has now been fulfilled, with most of the aircraft now delivered. A VKS Su-35S unit in Russia's Eastern Military District started flying the Su-35S in late December 2015, while another unit in the Primorsky Territory is slated to receive Su-35S's in 2016.

The Su-35S is billed by Sukhoi as a heavily upgraded fourth-generation super-manoeuvrable multirole fighter developed with the use of fifth-generation aircraft technologies. It features a sophisticated avionics suite based on a digital information management system, a cutting-edge radar with a long-range aerial target acquisition and increased multiple-target tracking/engagement capabilities, and enhanced thrust-vectoring engines.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Jan 2016 01:00

rohitvats wrote:I don't want to say this but if we're cutting back on Rafale to a number below 126 and if IAF does not want to fill numbers with MKI, please think about 32 Mirage-2000-9 from UAE. They also have another 36 M2K which have been substantially upgraded to M2K-5/9 standard. Best way to arrest squadron decline, leverage existing infrastructure and internal know how. We can add at least three squadrons here and bring them to speed over next 2-3 years.

This is a possibility but would be contingent on numerous factors that might make the procurement very delayed.

Perhaps Hal can ramp up mk1a production to 24 p.a. After 2017 (they are planning to make 26 p.a., in any case)

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Jan 2016 01:07

Philip wrote:For SU-35 cost comparisons with the Raffy,take a dekko at this report from Janes'.With FGFA arrival delayed,Russia is opting for large numbers of SU-35s and SU-32s at very low cost thanks to exports as well.

http://www.janes.com/article/57187/russ ... e-fighters
Russia orders 50 Su-35S multirole fighters
Nikolai Novichkov, Moscow - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
13 January 2016
Russia is understood to have ordered 50 more Su-35S fighter aircraft from UAC. Source: IHS/Patrick Allen

The Russian Aerospace Force (VKS) ordered 50 Sukhoi Su-35S 'Flanker E' multirole fighters from Sukhoi in late December 2015, a United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) source told TASS-DEFENSE.

According to the source, the new order is valued at more than RUB60 billion (USD788 million) and the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KnAAZ, a Sukhoi affiliate) will build the aircraft. Thus, it will have had its hands full until 2020. In addition to this order, the period is to see the execution of China's order for 24 Su-35S's, while the company hopes to sign a contract with Indonesia for 12 aircraft soon. According to the source, initially, the Su-35S program was expected to pay its way after 72 aircraft had been built. If the contract with Indonesia is signed, a total of 134 fighters of the type will have been delivered to the customers before 2020.

According to the UAC source, talks with Algeria on 12 Sukhoi Su-32 tactical bombers - an export variant of the Su-34 'Fullback' - have made good progress, and the country may acquire up to 40 aircraft of the type.

Russia's order in 2009 for 48 Su-35S's has now been fulfilled, with most of the aircraft now delivered. A VKS Su-35S unit in Russia's Eastern Military District started flying the Su-35S in late December 2015, while another unit in the Primorsky Territory is slated to receive Su-35S's in 2016.

The Su-35S is billed by Sukhoi as a heavily upgraded fourth-generation super-manoeuvrable multirole fighter developed with the use of fifth-generation aircraft technologies. It features a sophisticated avionics suite based on a digital information management system, a cutting-edge radar with a long-range aerial target acquisition and increased multiple-target tracking/engagement capabilities, and enhanced thrust-vectoring engines.

Sounds good Philip but I think russian contenders are out of reckoning, the mki had the best chance, but seems like there is absolutely no movement in that direction...the much hyped modi putin meet was a real cropper. Strategically, we are now outside the Russian sphere it seems...the Chinese otoh have filled in the void. Would not be surprised if the pakfa is also funded by china in time.

Strategic independence is crucial to india and she will prolly go french and pay a fortune in the process. An increased embrace with the US is also possible but not yet..

viveks · Post by **viveks** » 25 Jan 2016 01:19

Mods should close this thread.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 25 Jan 2016 01:27

One cannot look at the Su-35 Janes report as an indication of the cost of the aircraft since it does not provide details (what type of contract, what type of price, does it include other funding etc). You would need further details of what this covers. The China Su-35 deal put the cost of the aircraft more at $80 Million or so. The reason the Russian deals when converted to $$ seems lower is because of the conversion factor with their currency having taken a huge hit against the USD of late.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR

Chinese deal (the only Su-35 export deal so far) - http://www.janes.com/article/56128/russ ... 5-fighters

If the Janes report (russian Su-35 follow on order ) is to be believed, the Su-35's cost in USD is $15 Million per aircraft, or aproximately $10-15 Million below even the LCA or T-50/FA-50 and indeed comparable to trainer aircraft. If I were to guess it was most likely just an early contract for future delivery with more to follow close to deliveries.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 25 Jan 2016 03:16

brar_w wrote:If the Janes report (russian Su-35 follow on order ) is to be believed, the Su-35's cost in USD is $15 Million per aircraft, or aproximately $10-15 Million below even the LCA or T-50/FA-50 and indeed comparable to trainer aircraft. If I were to guess it was most likely just an early contract for future delivery with more to follow close to deliveries.

Likely to be the cost of the airframe, with the avionics and engines accounted for separately.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 25 Jan 2016 03:18

Doesn't look like even the IGA will be signed tomorrow, let alone the actual contract.

India, France vow to fight terror jointly, Rafale deal may take time

French President Francois Hollande indicated on Sunday a long-awaited $9 billion deal for three dozen Rafale warplanes to India may not be clinched soon even as the two countries pledged increased cooperation to combat terror and climate change.

“We are going to take another step on the road which we hope will lead us to India’s acquisition of the 36 Rafale jets,” the French President told reporters. “India needs them and France has shown that it has the world’s best aircraft. The commercial contract can only come after the inter-governmental accord... which will be discussed during my visit.”

The deal is expected to come up when Hollande and Modi hold talks on Monday as negotiations have dragged on under two successive governments with New Delhi’s insistence that at least 30% of the construction be done on Indian soil emerging as a key sticking point.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 25 Jan 2016 03:28

Over their lifetime, Su-35s are likely to be more expensive than the Rafales. But, how about those Mirages?

I don't see them coming in either. I feel it is a prestige issue.
1. Procuring second hand, non-glittery machines to just get the work done and fill up numbers is probably too unglamorous.
2. The Rafale deal has to be finalized to salvage the "masterstroke"!

Indo-French geo-political and economic relations could have been maintained without the Rafales:
1. Get more submarines. Or award the P-75I program to them!
2. Get more nuclear powerplants.
3. Get more loco-engines.
4. Get those damn A-330 refuelers. Increase their number.
5. Get Airbuses as bases for AWAC India.
6. Get Airbuses rather than Boeings for AI.

There are many ways to get out of this deal if we want to. I am quite sure, none of that will be exercised.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 25 Jan 2016 03:31

do we have the split of the costs?
- platform
- weapons
- operational
- spares
- training

etc?

it just can't be 5b for the platform, and the rest is 4b. even then, the platform cost of 140m each puppy is exorbitant.no?

modiji said the costs will match the offer to french a/f. now that is way too much even for the frenchies. do we have data the cost of ownership of Rafale for France?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 25 Jan 2016 05:22

No alternative deals, to the rafale, will keep dassault alive. It is no longer as urgent, but India is paying for dassault's life support, much like that India did for Sukhoi.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 25 Jan 2016 05:54

I do not believe that the Mirage 2000 is a viable option anymore. It was at the beginning when Dassault was ready and open. They were going to keep the assembly line open for augment what it took to replace the degrading squadrons. By that I mean the Arab Mirages plus new ones from the factory. Please understand that whole thing was going to be the BIG KAHUNA.
And the reason they were going to do this was , they would get more opportunities to sell Rafael to the Arabian Nations.

However now they will do everything in their damndest to ensure this does not happen. This will include straight forward invokation of OEM clauses that disallowe the sale of equipment without the permission of the French Government etc etc. You get the point.
Plus making the upgrade so hard and so expensive that we could probably buy a new rafael with that money.

Anything else would tantamount to the Israeli Mirage affair of the 60s such as a desi unauthorised upgrade.

For now I believe following are the options.

1. Get the Rafel. Follow through with the negotiations , take the time. We have gone past the point where we can arrest strength degradation anyway.
2. Can the Rafael. Consider the Su-35 (3 squadrons) and pour the remaining money into the AMCA
3. Can the Rafael. Buy the Typhoon (2 squadrons) + 1 Squadron of Mig-35 (on the back of second Mig-29K order) and pour the remaining money into the AMCA

Honestly not feeling too much love towards the french ... they believe being stubborn like piece of rock distinguishes them. So over that.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 25 Jan 2016 07:15

The whole reason all these ridiculous prices are being thrown around is IAF's pigheadedness.

In a real tender you have to be serious, or at least look it, about all contenders to get the best price. Dassault is fully aware that IAF will not compromise and get another aircraft, so with nothing to worry about they can demand whatever ridiculous price they want. $100 million? $200 million? $300 million? From Dassault's perspective they can charge whatever the hell they want and the MoD will be forced to eat it up because IAF is so stubbornly attached to their outdated Raffles.

Best deal so far was F/A-18E with indigenous manufacturing line if 200 aircraft orders can be secured. This could have been fulfilled with orders from IN. AND the type uses the same F414 engines that the Tejas Mk2 and potentially the AMCA will use. Imagine the easing of logistics and the indigenization of engine component opportunities that could have been possible. Boeing would have offered more than usual because the line was also closing down and they wouldn't have a choice but to make more of the subsystems and parts in India.

member_27845 · Post by **member_27845** » 25 Jan 2016 08:04

Should we just focus on the future , which is presumably away from manned aircraft ?

Just put our money into air defense systems , missile systems and UAVs ?

http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/th ... lete-12612

http://gizmodo.com/us-navy-secretary-wa ... 1698416632

http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/adios-to ... ghter-jet/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Jan 2016 08:34

brar_w wrote:If the Janes report (russian Su-35 follow on order ) is to be believed, the Su-35's cost in USD is $15 Million per aircraft, or aproximately $10-15 Million below even the LCA or T-50/FA-50 and indeed comparable to trainer aircraft. If I were to guess it was most likely just an early contract for future delivery with more to follow close to deliveries.

Dont convert Rouble to USD and the cost remains the same more or less compared to first 48 aircraft when Rouble was 35 to USD , The prices hasnt changed infact increased a bit due to inflation and larger number

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Jan 2016 08:38

brar_w wrote:Well, I always thought that the weapons package would be diverse and include a lot of weapons. MICA-RF, IR, and Meteor for air-air, plus a whole lot of different quality PGM's including perhaps the storm shadow. That would take the weapons package to well above the $700 or so million your math gets us to.

It depends why weapons package they are counting when they say weapons package could just be the MIRC-RF and LGB's too and not others or just Indian Astra and LGB's

I think beyond the basic weapons they would sign a comprehensive weapons package deal ,plus Spares/Engine but other things

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 25 Jan 2016 08:38

Thats exactly why I pointed out to the exchange rates. However, until we see actual budget materials to see how russia reports its costs we have no really way of confirming that this is 100% of the cost of the Su-35. An export sale however involves transfer of funds in return of transfer of a system so is more of a single transaction/entity thing. For the Su-35, we have only one number to go by and that is $83 Million for China. A very good price given the size and capability of the aircraft but nothing like $15 million that was being suggested as a price the IAF could acquire the aircraft

. Even a new Su-30MKI would run north of 50-60 Million USD.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Jan 2016 08:43

Viv S wrote: The Nirbhay has a range of ~ 1,000 km. The Rafale will only provide marginal utility as far as range is concerned. And when it comes to free-fall nuclear weapons, its out-ranged by the Su-30MKI & PAK FA.

That also means saddling the service with an aircraft devoid of any VLO capability for the next 40 years. I don't think the MoD will permit a fourth fighter type to be integrated, when the Navy has a grand total of only three carriers.

All nuclear bombers and fighters are certified for Free Fall Weapon as it gives the Man in Loop Capability till the last moment something Cruise Missile or other stand off weapons dont , Hence Free Fall Weapons would be integrated in Rafale and other fighter selected for N-Detterence Role.

As far as Range Goes they would have drop tank and other stuff depends on mission configuration and aircraft package for the role. As in there would be jammers , AD fighters as part of the package.

I reall reading in WOP M2K was suppose to drop those free fall weapon and 29K was suppose to provide the aircover

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Jan 2016 08:48

brar_w wrote:Thats exactly why I pointed out to the exchange rates. However, until we see actual budget materials to see how russia reports its costs we have no really way of confirming that this is 100% of the cost of the Su-35. An export sale however involves transfer of funds in return of transfer of a system so is more of a single transaction/entity thing. For the Su-35, we have only one number to go by and that is $83 Million for China. A very good price given the size and capability of the aircraft but nothing like $15 million that was being suggested as a price the IAF could acquire the aircraft . Even a new Su-30MKI would run north of 50-60 Million USD.

Like I said the price remains the same , A Su-34 costs the RuAF around ~$32 million even when rouble was at 35 , Sukhoi also has directive on how much profit they can make selling internally , An LCA would cost much less for IAF then for export as they need to take into account many things plus profit for export customers. If you dont convert to USD the cost remains the same.ITs like trying to convert USD US aircraft cost Rouble or Rupee and saying OMG the cost has increased dramatically.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 25 Jan 2016 08:52

Austin, this is exactly what I am saying as well hence, why I pointed out the exchange rate gap that has come up between the ruble and the USD in my first post on the matter. Having said that however, one does not get the best indicator of Russian budgetary reporting since most of the sources are media releases as apposed to an audited report or a financial summary.

brar_w wrote:The reason the Russian deals when converted to $$ seems lower is because of the conversion factor with their currency having taken a huge hit against the USD of late.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
.

Since it was suggested that the IAF could acquire the Su-35 instead, it is good to consider that the only export customer for it is paying around $83 Million per aircraft.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Jan 2016 08:55

brar_w wrote:Since it was suggested that the IAF could acquire the Su-35 instead, it is good to consider that the only export customer for it is paying around $83 Million per aircraft.

Yes it depends what the deal is what is part of the package.

The entire Su-30MKI deal of 270 aircraft cost around USD 11 Billion or around $40 million ( it cost much less in 90's and today it costs ~60 ) but the average cost is ~ 40 million USD ( inflation adjusted prices )

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 25 Jan 2016 09:01

The entire Su-30MKI deal of 270 aircraft cost around USD 11 Billion or around $40 million ( it cost much less in 90's and today it costs ~60 ) but the average cost is ~ 40 million USD ( inflation adjusted prices )

There is nothing detailed on any Russian deal since the only way we find out is through the media so we have to work with what we have. As far program costs batch costs are different from current costs. The super hornet program fly-away cost is around 60 million, but you cant get one at that cost now (but could in 2013).

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Jan 2016 09:49

Issued 250-MKF16F ejection seats for fighter Rafale

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1696891.html

viveks · Post by **viveks** » 25 Jan 2016 09:52

Close this thread....I dont think there should be something discussed here anymore. I follow this thread and I dont think there is any cement to it. Dassault people will have the same feeling. I dont think our ex-prime minister ...shri Rajiv Gandhi took this long finalize the mirage deal.

Well...if you want to entertain your whims & fancies...continue on...but to me it is just out right disgusting to watch this thread exist.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Jan 2016 10:13

If we want a Western aircraft there is always the much cheaper Gripen for the light/med role.4 sqds of Gripens can perhaps be acquired for the same cost of 36 Rafales. IAF requirement for extra tankers beggars the Q,why not acquire LR strat bombers instead? Look at how the Russians have struck targets in Syria using all their Soviet era strat bombers,plus Su-32s.Flanker derivatives can be augmented for the LR strike air dominance role.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 25 Jan 2016 12:12

Dear Phillip

I once used to dream of the Tu series as strat bombers.
But please the RuAF bomber fly uncontested.

Do not expect that from the PAF and PLAAF.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Jan 2016 12:33

True,but equipped with several LRCMs a few strat bombers could replace the need for a larger number of strike aircraft. Incidentally there is a report that the new Ru strat bomber,a flying wing,will arrive faster than expected before 2020.There is little news about our desi stealth UCAV.This programme should be pushed as fast as poss. In fact this programme can be leveraged into a stealth bomber design programme for the IAF.

member_28880 · Post by **member_28880** » 25 Jan 2016 13:35

Except some price negotiation technicalities all IGA has been achieved: PM Narendra Modi
An MOU has been signed between Indian DM and French DM regarding Rafael. Watch DD news Live.

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 25 Jan 2016 13:37

JAN 25, 2016 | 02:34 PM (IST)
ToI Live Blog: French President Francois Hollande in India

02:36 PM (IST)
"We are very happy that we have formed an agreement for purchaseing [sic] 36 Rafale aircrafts with France," PM Modi says

02:31 PM (IST)
India signs MoU with France to buy Rafale combat jets

member_28880 · Post by **member_28880** » 25 Jan 2016 14:06

"Through minsters of defence we have just signed an inter governmental agreement, It is a decisive step": French President @FHollande

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 25 Jan 2016 14:06

Another day, another Rafale MoU, how many is that so far? Not that I'm complaining; I hope we never buy the damn things.
http://m.hindustantimes.com/india/india ... MrKBN.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Jan 2016 14:48

Y. Kanan wrote:Another day, another Rafale MoU, how many is that so far? Not that I'm complaining; I hope we never buy the damn things.
http://m.hindustantimes.com/india/india ... MrKBN.html

why ? what is alternative you suggest ?

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 25 Jan 2016 14:50

Y. Kanan wrote:Another day, another Rafale MoU, how many is that so far? Not that I'm complaining; I hope we never buy the damn things.
http://m.hindustantimes.com/india/india ... MrKBN.html

It appears this isn't a MoU - India and France have signed an Inter Governmental Agreement, the kind we sign to formalize FMS deals. It binding on both sides now.

Strangely the Joint Statement mentions that "some financial issues" are pending. This is bad contractual process - the price isn't clear and we signed an agreement already. Why the rush?

The two Leaders welcomed the conclusion of the Inter-governmental Agreement (IGA) on the acquisition of 36 Rafale fighter aircrafts in flyaway condition, except for some financial issues relating to the IGA which they agreed must be resolved as soon as possible.

Added later: so foreign secy confirming its a MoU on the IGA

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 Jan 2016 15:05

this means that there are other things apart from just rafale that are winging in with the deal.

shown a clip between Modi & Rafale in metro, body language is non-existant.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 25 Jan 2016 15:16

India signs accord to buy 36 Rafale jets from France, financial details yet to be worked out

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 25 Jan 2016 15:23

Hollande called the Rafale deal a "decisive" step, and added that the financial issues that will be sorted out in couple of days.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 716924.cms

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Jan 2016 15:30

I do not understand this logic. Financial issues are the main sticking point in this deal.