Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2016

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Akshay Kapoor
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

And this is what Maroof Raza says...

so Prashanth is this a knee jerk reaction ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXHINhjBSSw
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Anujan »

Falijee wrote:Pakistan's Khatm-e-Nabuwat & Dawat-e-Islami Linked To Murder Of Ahmadi in UK
The recent murder of Ahmadi Muslim shopkeeper Asad Shah has sent shockwaves across Britain. Ahmadiyya Muslims who are considered heretics and face severe persecution at the hands of extremist Muslims across Asia but this the first time an Ahmadi has been murdered for his religious belief’s in UK.
Shah who was a resident of Glasgow was much loved by the local community and his horrific murder has got people talking about sectarian violence within the Muslim community, something that has largely been ignored by both the British Media and Politicians. In 1985 The Times London published an article warning Britain about the “Muslim feud” that was being imported from Pakistan.

The damage is already done now !
The extremist group KhatmeNabuwat which is based out of ForestGate, London has also hosted prominent Pakistani hate preachers which include Molana Ilyas Chinioti and Molana Allah Wasaya
The Ahmedis were in the forefront in the struggle for a "Muslim homeland" during the pre - partition days; now they are getting a taste of their own medicine from their fellow brothers in Malsi

Dont worry. BBC will protect Ahmedis
https://twitter.com/bbcasiannetwork/sta ... 9015085056
@bbcasiannetwork
Is there too much pressure on Muslims to accept Ahmadis as Muslims? Get in touch with @TinaDaheley with your views.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Rudradev »

Akshay ji, couple of quick questions:

1) On the issue of company/battalion level commanders along the LOC and IB getting latitude to exercise their own initiative and conduct cross-border ops (retaliatory or otherwise). I have heard that this has in fact changed for the better under the current govt than under UPA (when, even while actually under attack, IA field commanders had to wait for the phone to ring from Delhi before they lifted a finger in response, and the Pakis knew about these sorts of constraints and even taunted our guys about it... 'your orders haven't come from Delhi' etc.) These days there seems to be a lot more latitude to do the needful. Was this not the case when (post Modi's election)the cross-IB shelling of Hindu/Sikh civilians happened in Jammu and BSF was given full carte blanche to pulverize the enemy with arty, much to their shock?

Has this posture changed at all in recent months? Are we back to a position where field commanders have their hands tied, as in UPA days? Would like to know.

2) On the issue of "Talks". I don't really see what the problem is with having talks, as long as (besides chai biskoot) generous helpings of more pain-inflicting fare are also served up on the table. I would refer you to the visit of Xi Jinping to India to meet Modi, again shortly after the 2014 election. While Xi was in Delhi, PLA was up to its usual probing incursions just a few 100 kms north across the Himachal border. Talks-shalks were going on, big ideas about economic cooperation amongst "Giants of the Asian Century" were being touted, and at the same time whatever the PLA felt was required was also on the front burner.

So likewise, if we can keep up the jhaapads along LOC/IB all the while, what is wrong if "talks" are held at the Foreign Secy, MEA or even PMO level?
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

Rudradevji,

1) On point one, local commanders will react to local provocations. So if a Paki unit attacks an Indian unit, depending upon the offensive nature of te commanders there retaliation may or may not happen. Local commanders will NOT attack in response to issues outside their command (ie Pathankot) unless that is part of a comprehensive response. That is what I am suggesting a comprehensive response at several different locations depending upon the target. This can only happen if there is a govt directive like the retaliation in late 2014 which you refer to. Targets have to be selected, some more support weapons have to be moved to forward posts, timing has to be decided etc. Also, this comprehensive response has to be consistent and has to carry on for some time, say a year. That is absolutely crucial for the message to filter through. All this needs a politcial directive and it must be sustained.

PS - I don't believe BSF/army used arty unless you are refering to 120 mm mortars. AFAIK it was MMGs and 2 inch mortars but in volume. I am pretty sure that field or medium guns were not used.

I have not spoken to anyone in the know about this issue in the last 3/4 months so cannot comment if restrictions have been placed on local commanders recently. You are absolutely correct in your point on what happened in UPA regime. In fact I posted on this after a conversation with a GS Ops officer in one of the Northern Command Corps. To an extent things have eased but some issues remain - for example Indian battlion, brigade and Div commanders are not allowed to use higher calibre weapons than 2 inch mortars without authorisation from Corps or even Command HQ. Pak army battlions can use 120 mm mortars anytime and they do. That has not changed.

What I am advocating is a border response to a cross border incident. Even our response in 2014 was border response to a border incident and even that needed a political directive. You see the qualitative difference and why a political directive is necessary ?

2.) Talks. Please refer to the video I posted where Maroof Raza is giving his views. He has said this a million times and I whole heartedly agree, talks have got us no where for 25 years ! We just keep doing the nautanki of talks on and talks off and who called them off. If Pak called them off then we beat our chest and say we have achieved something. We haven't ! Why ? Because there is no compromise possible as the other side does not want to compromise. Also the interlocutors have no aukad to talk (its the army that calls the shots and they do not and cannot compromise) I have said this earlier so don't want to sound like a broken record.

This focus with talks leads to the deep subconscious belief in south block that talks are everything and no other avenue is ever tried. And the jhpad that you talk of never happens. Chai biskut happens but not the jhapad. Because the decision makers know nothing else. And this is seeping in on BR as well. We are all beating our chests and saying 'they called off talks'. So what ?



I don't have much more to add so am signing off on this topic. Please see the links I have posted. Maroof (especially Maroof), RSN Singh and Gen GD Bakshi are very clear thinkers in my view. I would recommend mulling over some points they make.
Last edited by Akshay Kapoor on 08 Apr 2016 03:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by UlanBatori »

We only support action on border - and I will always stick to this line unshakeable truth.
Getting close. And in addition, pls kindly repeat after me:
On the border, we ***only** act to protect our goats and cows and maybe even our people, in self-defence, and using absolute minimum force. We always try to use Haat Line and Wagah Phlag Meeting to settle all differences through the principle of understanding and mutual cooperation and non-violent Love. In fact our artillery shells (did someone mention a Division Commander ordering an artillery barrage? Shocking distortion! :eek: ) Those shells had carnation flowers on them. Strictly a peaceful gesture.

Insaniyat Over Insanity. Panchsheel. There is no Your Terrorist or His Terrorist. There are only Paki Terrorists.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

UB ji,

You are right. My mistake in recollection because I had too much old monk. I remember now, when he had asked the arty brigade to 'open up' for 3 mins' it was to open up their guns for cleaning to ensure to ensure there was no ammunition in them.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Rudradev »

Thank you Akshay ji for an insightful summary. Appreciate your perspective.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Prem »

Afghan intelligence agent arrested in Balochistan
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1079579/afg ... lochistan/
CHAMAN: An Afghan intelligence agent was arrested on Wednesday by security forces near the Pakistan-Afghan border region of Chaman.According to initial reports, the suspect is a serving member of the Afghan intelligence and was arrested during an operation conducted by Frontier Corps (FC).The agent, who has not yet been named, was in possession of several explosives, ammunition and weapons, an FC spokesperson told The Express Tribune. The said agent has been handed to authorities and further investigation is underway.The arrest comes almost two weeks after RAW agent Kulbhoshan Yadav was arrested from the same region near Balochistan.Yadav, arrested on March 3, was deployed in Iran’s Chabahar port before crossing into Balochistan to meet some separatist leaders.Days earlier, Iran conveyed to Pakistan that it is investigating whether the Indian spy arrested last month crossed the border illegally or was picked up from its soil.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by A_Gupta »

Nitin Pai:
http://acorn.nationalinterest.in/2016/0 ... -pakistan/
So we had the drama of the ‘capture’ of an Indian spy in Balochistan and China’s blocking of international action against Masood Azhar at the United Nations. The claim that Kulbhushan Jadhav’s capture is cause to ‘suspend’ the peace process and halt the investigations into Pathankot is laughable: the Pakistani establishment has long been claiming that India is stirring the pot in Balochistan and has even presented ‘evidence’ to foreign officials of this. Whatever the facts of the Jadhav case, they do not present any compelling new information to cause Pakistan to walk out of the peace process. The drama only makes sense when seen as providing an excuse for the military establishment to move to protect its jihadi assets from scrutiny, investigation and punishment.
But why bother? Pakistan is irrelevant to India’s development agenda. It is a distraction (See this article in OPEN). Instead of wasting limited diplomatic capacity and political capacity on the Pakistan project, it would be much more prudent for Mr Modi to ignore Pakistan, and let it sort itself out. New Delhi ought to invest in protecting the homeland from terrorist attacks, creating political conditions that will minimise its impact and cranking up the economic engines to achieve rapid growth. Mr Modi should practice the necessary art of ignoring Pakistan.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by shiv »

Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

India cancelled talks after the parliament attack in 2002. After that talks did not get back on track at all and Pakistan has been blaming India for not talking while some Indian WKKs have been urging talks. Didn't talks restart under Modi - only to be cancelled by India after some atrocity, and then restarted by India with Modi doing hush-hush with Nawaz and later saying Happy Birthday or something?

Is this the first time Pakistan has "suspended talks"? The arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav was probably building up to this. Be that as it may - the statements by Basit (the Paki shit eater) are ambiguous. he said "I think the talks stand suspended for now" while he also said that foreign secretary level talks may take place in response to queries from the media.

I get the sense that Basit does not have clear instructions on what to say other than stopping an Indian NIA team from visiting Pakistan.

I don't want to keep on harping on talks. I do agree that talks have done nothing, for us. But unless I am mistaken the idea of "talks" carries some weight in deciding who is an aggressor and who is not. The party that refuses talks and later gets involved in conflict will have to make a strong case for its actions.

I regret to say that while India has a perfectly strong case, Pakistan has made an alternate strong case for itself especially with the US and China where the idea has been planted that India is responsible for human rights violations in Kashmir and that Pakistan, threatened by a much more powerful India has a "genuine right of self defence". While none of the arguments posed by India are wrong, they are not the only arguments that are heard.

And while most of the world knows that India has done a good job (now) of keeping J&K developed and democratic I would like to point out that some of the worst culprits are the Indian media. Several articles by retired military personnel (and a talk I attended given by late AM Pervez Khokar) pointed out that the vast majority of the districts in J&K are untroubled by Pak interference. the few that are get the most attention with Indians strengthening Pakistan's case, accusing our own forces of excesses and not chirping a word about Pandits, the positives of the way the Army has worked and how Kashmir has been developed. It is Indians in the media and some political hues who help Pakistan play a stronger hand on Kashmir than they have.

All of us who have observed Pakistan for two decades or more now realize that Kashmir is unattainable for Pakistan, but is simply a tool to keep Pakistan as one country under army control and keep the forces of jihad, which also unite a violent Sunni Pakistan in power. Many recent articles point out how operation Zarb e Zamzamcola has failed to take down the militancy. Bacha Khan and the triumphant entry of TTP into Pakjab are indicators of one new power center that is opposed to the army and to the JuD/LeT. the LeT itself has lost ground to ISIS and has now taken the help of Masood Azhar's HuM which has been given new freedom by the army.

Very few countries admit that they have made a mess of things. Let me correct that. People might admit it, but leaders don't. the US does not admit that it made a mess in Afghanistan and Iraq and now Syria. It is the Afghan mess that they needed the Paki army and because of the Paki army's alliance with the US, the TTP has gained strength. The Paki army is no longer the single most powerful force. It is compromised and its power is neutralized by its having to face India on one side and insurgency on the Afghan border. Its anti-India work is being done by JuD/LeT (Hafiz saeed) and HuM (Masood Azhar). The mess is complex but Indians, and the Indian media simply don't understand.

People speak of "Pakistan" as a state. That is they think that Pakistan is led by a PM (Nawaz Sharif) and that the army serves the nation. Most Indian still do not understand how a country can be such a mess, as Pakistan is. Most Indians have been convinced that Hindus are bad and that Pakistan and the Muslims of Pakistan are simply given a bad name. Most Indians do not understand that sectarian divides cause massacres in Pakistan. In India we believe that Islam is a religion of peace and it is Hindus who massacre Muslims, who never kill each other. These views, propagated by the media and divisive politics in India are slowly changing, but it takes a lot to change 1.2 billion people. Calculate the vote share that Congress had before thinking that Indians understand what is what.

From an international geopolitical standpoint the US, having messed up Afghanistan and Iraq, does not want to see Pakistan split. The US turns a blind eye towards Baluchistan just as they did towards Bangladesh in 1971. And they still pretend that Pakistan needs to be armed against India to be a stable state under the army. These things frankly preclude a war to break Pakistan unless Pakistan sinks further and keeps on sinking.

We are, as we have been for a long time in a state of no war no peace. But we are pulling ahead of Pakistan in so many counts, that it is possible to look at that as a sort of consolation prize. Let alone Indians, even the "international community" cannot understand how a country (Pakistan) can show so much hatred towards India that they are willing to commit national suicide just to harm, hurt or break India. This is something that we must face alone. But at 1.2 billion we are hardly alone. Balls and spine and realism on what secularism has wrought would help.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Prem »

Debate: Who's calling the shots in Pakistan?
Balochistan issue now coming to forefront. Baloch openly asking Indian help.
Paki rat mush getting tied up. India will openly engage with Balochi and others: Maruf

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Whos-call ... 487257.cms
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by SSridhar »

Imagining a neighbour’s turbulence - Rakesh Sood, The Hindu

Rakesh Sood is gazing through a predictable crystal ball.
Looking back, it is clear that 2016 will be remembered as a year marked by political turbulence in Pakistan {Which year is not turbulent in the Land of Honey and Milk?}; these processes of change are still churning and will further unfold in 2017. In hindsight, the catalysing event for the changes was the suicide attack in Lahore in March on Easter Sunday in the park Gulshan-e-Iqbal which claimed more than 70 lives. It strained the rather fragile civil-military balance that had been established after the Azadi March in 2014 led by Imran Khan (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) and Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri (Pakistan Awami Tehreek). Allegations of widespread corruption against the Sharif brothers and behind-the-scenes political manoeuvrings led to their eventual exit. A technocratic government was sworn as an interim measure and Chief of the Army Staff General Raheel Sharif’s term was extended by a year in November. The National Security Council (NSC) assumed greater responsibilities for governance. Elections are likely to be held in 2017 once law and order is restored though no time frame has been set.

Since Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched in June 2014 in North Waziristan against elements of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), more than 3,500 militants are reported to have been killed but terrorist attacks have not ceased. Strikes against military installations have come down though there was an audacious attempt to hijack a Pakistani naval vessel from the base at Karachi in 2014 and a terrorist attack at the Peshawar airbase in 2015 claimed 29 casualties. However, the majority of the strikes have been against minorities and soft targets — Shia mosques and buses carrying Shia pilgrims, churches, and educational institutions.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb also led to a fragmentation of the TTP, contributing to an increase in sectarian violence. In 2013, after Hakimullah Mehsud was killed and Mullah Fazlullah from Swat took charge of the TTP, some of the Mehsuds turned resentful and opposed the idea of any talks between the TTP and the army. This is when Omar Khalid Khorasani split, claimed allegiance to the Islamic State, and set up the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar which claimed responsibility for the Easter Sunday attack.

A fragile civil-military balance had been established in 2014, according to which Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was to focus on economic development, leaving counterterrorism operations to the army except in Punjab where Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had insisted that he would prefer to work through the police and involve the Pakistan Rangers and the army only if necessary.

Tilting the balance

The attack at the Army Public School in Peshawar in December 2014 which claimed more than 140 lives, mostly schoolchildren, shocked Pakistan. A National Action Plan against terrorism was launched after detailed discussions between the army, government agencies, and Parliament. Military courts were established to dispense speedy justice because an intimidated judiciary often refrained from taking up such cases. Apex Committees were set up to monitor progress at the provincial level. Notionally under the Chief Ministers, these Apex Committees were actually dominated by the Corps commanders.

The Apex Committees tilted the civil-military balance in favour of the military in all the provinces except Punjab. In Sindh, it enabled the army to go after the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) in a big way. Punjab was the Sharif stronghold and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML(N) had its own links with the Punjab-based jihadist groups. The tacit understanding was that as long as these groups did not mount attacks in Punjab, the local police would refrain from a large-scale crackdown.

The army had its hands full with Karachi, Quetta and FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) but the Easter Sunday attack in Lahore earlier this year became the game changer. Within twenty-four hours, the Pakistan Rangers and the army had taken over counterterrorism operations in Punjab and General Sharif made an announcement to this effect. This provoked Prime Minister Sharif to cancel his visit to Washington for the Nuclear Security Summit. Days later, there was an unpublicised meeting between Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali and General Sharif in Rawalpindi but divergences continued to grow.

Earlier, Prime Minister Sharif had agreed to revive the NSC thus conceding a major demand of the army. Chaired by the President and consisting of the Prime Minister, Senate Chairman, the four Chief Ministers, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee and the three service chiefs, the NSC was first introduced by General Yahya Khan in 1969 as a means of formally inducting the army into the highest policymaking structures in the country. During civilian rule, it has been periodically replaced by the Defence Committee of the Cabinet (DCC), serviced by the Prime Minister’s Office, but the NSC keeps getting resurrected when the army asserts itself.

The regional geopolitics

The regional situation also contributed to the deterioration in civil-military ties. The army was increasingly uncomfortable with PM Sharif’s efforts to improve relations with India. Restricting Adviser Sartaj Aziz’s remit to the Foreign Ministry and bringing in recently retired Lt Gen. Naseer Khan Janjua as the National Security Adviser was an early signal in this regard. The army was unhappy with the cooperation in the investigations into the Pathankot terror attack which it felt was driven by Prime Minister Sharif’s ambition to host Prime Minister Modi at the SAARC summit. The army was suspicious that in the run-up to the summit, Prime Minister Sharif would even be tempted to seek some kind of forward movement on bilateral trade and regional connectivity which would earn him support with the business community.

Such a move was unhelpful with the army’s plans for the Afghanistan endgame. With President Obama on his way out from the White House, President Ashraf Ghani had lost his U.S. backing and was now expected to be more receptive to making peace with the Mullah Mansour/Haqqani factions of the Afghan Taliban. Connectivity could be considered, once the endgame was over.


Discussions with Iran on reconciliation in Afghanistan had faltered. President Hassan Rouhani’s visit in early 2016 was marred by the disclosures about alleged Indian intelligence operative Kulbhushan Yadav. This led Pakistan to tilt more towards Saudi Arabia in its growing rivalry with Iran. The army then began to invest in building up personal ties with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud who had visited in early 2016. In recent months, a few retired officers have been sent to advise him in the war against Yemen which has helped.

Time up for PM Sharif

By the time news about the Sharif family’s foreign assets and widespread corruption started surfacing in what is now known as “Panama Leaks”, Prime Minister Sharif’s relations with the army had reached an all-time low. Public protests were growing with Imran Khan once again fanning the flames with the call for another Azadi March. Faced with mounting protests, with fresh disclosures about the family’s offshore holdings coming in, the Prime Minister could not hold out and resigned in August. Mr. Khan was ‘persuaded’ by the army to accept a technocratic government so that fresh elections could be called in 2017. Dr. Shaukat Qureshi, an eminent economist with experience both with the World Bank and Wall Street, :rotfl: was tapped and sworn in as Prime Minister. Supporting him is a small team of former civil servants and professionals, some of whom have taken leave of absence from their careers for a year to put the country back on the path to stability and growth.

Given these developments, it was hardly surprising when it was announced in early November that General Sharif’s term was being extended by a year till November 30, 2017 to ensure the effective conclusion of counter-terrorist operations, especially in Punjab. Presently, with both the Pakistan Peoples Party and the PML(N) in disarray and the MQM nearly wiped out, chances of Mr. Khan emerging as the Prime Minister look brighter than before provided elections are held next year.

(Dr. Shaukat Qureshi is a fiction; a combination of Moeen Qureshi (ex-World Bank) and Shaukat Aziz (ex-Citibank), who served as caretaker Prime Minister and Prime Minister respectively.)

Back to the present

Scenario building was introduced in the business world nearly half a century ago and has slowly been accepted by some countries for their strategic planning exercises. Scenarios are not intended to predict the future. Rather, scenario analysis is intended to help think about the future and prepare better against the uncertainties. The scenario drawn out here has relevance because Prime Minister Modi’s foreign policy initiatives with regard to Pakistan have so far seemed to oscillate between ‘jhappi’ (embrace) and ‘katti’ (estrangement); however, he would need to develop a more centred policy before he travels to Pakistan later this year for the SAARC summit.

Rakesh Sood is a former diplomat who was engaged with India-Pakistan talks during 1990-1999.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by prashanth »

Akshay Kapoor wrote:And this is what Maroof Raza says...

so Prashanth is this a knee jerk reaction ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXHINhjBSSw
Saar,
Truth be told, you have again posted a video that supports my opinion. Thanks for that.
Mr.Mahroof Raza says that talks are a sham, which is what I said, and everyone here believes. He also says put pressure on paq by escalating tensions at the Afg border, which is not knee-jerk reaction, but a well planned offensive that hurts the ego of the tspa. He agrees that it is difficult to send people and planes across the border immediately after a provocation, but supports covert ops, which is again not a knee jerk reaction. Further he talks of diplomatic offensive.
But the point is that we will never know of any covert operations/diplomatic engagements by Indian forces and government.. What you are doing through your posts is to denounce their efforts by questioning their competence and commitment.

Indeed, as you said in your previous post, this argument is getting boring. If you want to fret and fume unnecessarily, it is your call. My last post on this topic.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by SSridhar »

Pak. stance shows civil-military divide - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu
Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit, who on Thursday accused India of suspending Foreign Secretary-level talks, also raised the recent arrest in Pakistan of a former Indian naval officer accused of spying.

Mr. Basit told the press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club here: “The arrest of Kulbushan Yadav corroborates what Pakistan has been saying all along. We are aware of those who seek to create unrest in Pakistan.”

Mr. Basit’s comments came a day after an official from the Chinese Embassy defended China’s move to stop a diplomatic campaign by India at the 1267 Committee of the U.N. to ban JeM chief Masood Azhar.

“We agree with the Chinese position,” Mr. Basit said, asked about the “technical hold” that has caused a rift in India-China ties.

Analysts said the sharp comments by the High Commissioner were unusual, and possibly an indicator of a growing civil-military divide in Pakistan.

“Nawaz Sharif’s government is facing increasing pressure from the military which is trying to take control of foreign policy and nuclear issues,” says former Foreign Secretary Shashank.

However, former High Commissioner of Pakistan to India, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, told The Hindu that he believes Mr. Sharif will prevail.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by BharadwajV »

Off Topic:
The Heron TP deal with IAI is being expedited. We have 10 on order (This news was a good surprise!)
These may present a low risk offensive option for our political order.

Now all we need are pills that can control or cure "TSP induced Dhoti Shivers" so that the khaadi clad can function when acts of war are perpetrated against our nation by the TSP.

On Topic:
Taklu and Wikipedia visit the Combat Commanders School of the Fizzle'Ya.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g3qOywdxlac -Part 1 of 2
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

shiv wrote:Someone please correct me if I am wrong.


p.

Shiv, I agree with your analysis of what is happening in Pak and on our media but not on a couple of other points.

1. The world does not 'equally' believe that we are the aggressor in Kashmir. Some isolated university professors and journalists might but we not the international diplomatic community which matters.

2. The vast majority of hindus (including Sikhs) or Christians for that matter do not believe that hindus kill muslims. I think you are getting swayed by a tiny tiny fraction of 'intelligentsia'. I would say less than 1 pct of hindus believe that. If there is a conventional war, or if there is a covert war with Pak on Pak territory there will be overwhelming support in India. The problem comes when the conflict is on our territory. You switch the game and I am willing to bet a case of scotch that there will be overwhelming support.

It is very debilitating to fight a sub conventional war on your soil, many lines get blurred. Its the converse when the conflict is on enemy soil (not a 1000 miles away like Vietnam or Iraq but on the border in enemy soil, ie Pakistan) especially if its a conventional war - clear on who the enemy is and full support of the public.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Rajagopal »

The below author supports the theory that Modi govt is following a definite plan of action w.r.t Pakistan. As someone said, this is a chess game leading to a checkmate at some point. Just sit back and enjoy the show. :)

Modi Has Won Round 1 Against Pak Army. He Must Keep At It:
http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/ignore-abdu ... eststories
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Baikul »

^^ I read that piece. I am not sure how Jyoti Malhotra has proved, as she claims, that Modi has won the first round. It's just a mish mash of old facts and lukewarm opinions. You or I could also write the same here, except that we'd be random internet mango abduls theorizing on an internet forum, whereas Jyoti is by profession a journalist writing for a media group.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by rajithn »

Rajagopal wrote:The below author supports the theory that Modi govt is following a definite plan of action w.r.t Pakistan. As someone said, this is a chess game leading to a checkmate at some point. Just sit back and enjoy the show. :)

Modi Has Won Round 1 Against Pak Army. He Must Keep At It:
http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/ignore-abdu ... eststories
Yes. I won't go as far as to use the phrase "..won the first round". As in a chess game. A move of a piece is not a win. [This is what I had referred to when I had used the chess analogy a few pages back].

But see how the reporter has put in a sly reference to 'unilateral travel and trade links opening up' in the last paragraph?

Suffice to say, many of the good people here WILL look at this in a completely different way, say 18-20 months from Sept 2016 (the day of the next SAARC summit). I am waiting to see us doing a post event analysis of how it was done (hindsight, of course, being 20/20).
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by SSridhar »

Rajagopal, Jyoti Malhotra is another one in the Mani Shankar Ayyar mould of 'uninterruptible & uninterrupted' relationship with Pakistan. What a turn of events that such people, diehard venom spewers against Modi, have started to sing tunes of praise !

She wants more concessions to be given to Pakistan. She feels that would sharpen the divide between the Army Generals the People of Pakistan.

Now, that is where she makes the mistake, by equating Nawaz Sharif with the People of Pakistan. Then, what does she expect the People to do? Rise in revolt against the Generals for having misled them for 68 years?

Nawaz Sharif stands thoroughly lame duck now after having conceded every conceivable space to the Army. Handling the US, India, China, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Iran, Taliban, TTP, MQM, Sind, Karachi, Balochistan, CPEC and nukes are all under the sole preserve of the Army today. The Sharif brothers have even lost Punjab, their backyard, after the recent Gulshan-e-Iqbal blast. As usual, the Pakistani Army is now all-conquering of its own land & people. Even judiciary has capitulated to it rather gladly and perhaps with a sigh of relief. I do not think that the Army had been so suffocatingly overpowering at any point of Pakistani history before. The Army has regained its image from the lows of 2008 and is at the highest point of its popularity today.

So, I am unable to understand Ms. Malhotra's Machiavellian (I am a bit tired of Chankian-ness and besides Malhotra & Machiavelli rhyme rather nicely) interpretation.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by RajeshA »

SSridhar wrote:Rajagopal, Jyoti Malhotra is another one in the Mani Shankar Ayyar mould of 'uninterruptible & uninterrupted' relationship with Pakistan. What a turn of events that such people, diehard venom spewers against Modi, have started to sing tunes of praise !

She wants more concessions to be given to Pakistan. She feels that would sharpen the divide between the Army Generals the People of Pakistan.

Now, that is where she makes the mistake, by equating Nawaz Sharif with the People of Pakistan. Then, what does she expect the People to do? Rise in revolt against the Generals for having misled them for 68 years?
This is the kind of divide State Dept, Western media and Thinktank chatteratti like to look for in hostile countries in order to further color revolutions - looking for a divide between an authoritarian military regime and the "PEOPLE" represented by a few civilian faces and then using a people's movement a la Tahir Square, bring about electoral democracy.

It is intellectual laziness. In Pakistan, people have been given so much of "electoral democracy", that I don't think they are interested anymore. Sure after a few years, people's hopes of Army solving any problems would fade, like it always does, and they may start hoping for another round of civilian govt., but all that is still time pass and for all purposes, useless for India, as it doesn't change the dynamic. The Army has and would continue to hold all controls over security and aggression.

Every once in a while, Army takes a back seat to frontal rule, so as to renew its strength and popularity among the people. This is no different. It doesn't change the dynamic.

What India needs to do is to overwhelm the Army, and not allow it any room for taking a break. It needs to implode.

The divide we are looking for is not between Army vs Civilian. That is a mirage.

We should be exploiting ethnic divides - Balochistan, Gilgit, Pushtunistan, Sindh, Ahmadi-non-Ahmadi, etc. These are the serious divides.

GoI should stop investing time and energy on playing some useless Army-Civilian chess.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

Rajesh, Sridhar, Baikul,

I am glad you gentlemen called this piece. I was about to but given the disheartening debate I have been having on this thread I decided not to.

This is the problem that I have sensed in the last 2 pages on this thread. Even some people on BR are falling for the hogwash of subtle army vs awam, diplomatic thrust and parry etc.

The real game is played by hard nosed cost benefit analysis, keeping and end game in mind, and then taking consistent resolute ACTION on ground.
Last edited by Akshay Kapoor on 08 Apr 2016 14:14, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Bhurishrava »

Jyoti Malhotra has no change of heart.

Those who spewed venom against Modi have suddenly fallen in love with him. The change is in Modi and not in Malhotra.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

Bhurishrava wrote:Jyoti Malhotra has no change of heart.

Those who spewed venom against Modi have suddenly fallen in love with him. The change is in Modi and not in Malhotra.

+ 1
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by RajeshA »

Akshay Kapoor ji,

Pakistan uses "Talks" as a means of diverting attention from its real 1000 cuts strategy. I don't mind, if GoI too uses "Talks" as distraction from our endeavors elsewhere to weaken Pakistani Army. Talks are simply a tennis game for the entertainment of all the onlookers in the gallery, and everybody on BRF knows they are not meant to achieve anything.

The only effective talks are those of surrender held at gunpoint, and we are not there yet.

I know that UPA govts did not really have any backend war with Pak, simply because they are "ek hi thaali ke chatte-batte", belong to the same Mughlai flock, and any Dossier-pushing they did, was in fact ALL they did. Talks were a foil for inaction. I am sure this govt. is different, even though superficially they would seem to behave similarly to look just as Gandhian. This ACT is necessary for a number of different reasons - internal and external, and is to be used as a foil for covert aggression. This govt. is NOT Mughlai.

In fact, the Pakis understand us quite well. We are indeed "Munha men Ram-Ram, bagal men chhuri"!

This is my understanding, though I cannot claim all would agree with me.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by shiv »

RajeshA wrote:
We should be exploiting ethnic divides - Balochistan, Gilgit, Pushtunistan, Sindh, Ahmadi-non-Ahmadi, etc. These are the serious divides.

GoI should stop investing time and energy on playing some useless Army-Civilian chess.
There seems to be a very strong constituency in India believing that Pakistan is a normal country with normal people and normal aspirations who have been somehow suppressed by their army.

I sometimes get frustrated repeating this and I realise that most of us on BRF already know it. But even among "sensible" Indians there is disbelief at the extent to which the rot runs deep in the Pakistani mind.

The Pakistani army was deeply hurt by 1971 and they have only multiplied the hatred and invested in Islamic armies feeding off a shit eating population to fight India, all covered over with a sugary veneer of beautiful people speaking English and charming the pants off Indians who see them. The sheer number of Indians who fall for this is so large that anyone who tries to point out the depth of hatred being inculcated in Pakistan for India is often accused of being a bigot, and nowadays a sanghi or a khaki chaddi/right winger.

Perhaps this is the reason why Indians don't seem to recognize simple and openly visible things about Pakistan:
1. Ahmedis are considered non Muslims and cannot claim to be Muslims - duh
2. Shias are being massacred by the hundred.
3. Christians are being massacred too or murdered for trumped up blasphemy charges

I wonder if too much secularist rhetoric has dulled Indian minds - especially non Muslims of India. Indians typically do not know that Sunnis, Shias and Ahmedis are separate sects. They do not know that even among Sunnis there have bee ideological differences between Barelvi and Deobandi and Wahhabi. Perhaps these differences were all sunk while the fight for Pakistan was being conducted. All Muslims were lumped into one.

There is a tendency in secular India to portray Pakistan as so normal that they are "just like us". And no this tendency has not gone away. You speak of sectarian killings in Pakistan and the Indian will tell you about sectarian killings in India. You tell them that the Pakistani army controls the discourse and they will tell you that if Pakistan had democracy then it would become a normal country.

You can make the blind see, but not the Indian who does not want to see that Pakistan was set up as hatred of Hindu India and as a bastion of Islam. Its survival as country with all the fissures between Pakjab, Sindh, Pakhtun, Baluch, Baltis, shia, sunni, Ahmedi, Barelvi, Deobandi and Wahhabi are stitched together by hatred for India.

No secular Indian has the balls to say that Islam allows the killing of opponents. Who are the opponent factions in Islamic Pakistan? They are Sunni, or Shias, or Sufis or Christians or Ahmedis. Or Sindhis or Baluchis. This is nothing like India, but yet Indians have managed to convince themselves that we Indians are the same and that there is some deep "normality" in Pakistan that will come up if trade and democracy are established. Or that India is much like Pakistan and we just need to be patient with them.

Part of the disease is in deluded Indian minds. As long as a very large majority of Indian people cannot see Pakistani for what it is we will keep buggering about and keep on bating about the bush. Indians simply do not believe that a country can have within itself the type of animosity and hatred that Pakistan displays. We like to think that "All of us have our bad days. We are like them. We have so many Hindu Muslim riots. We kill Dalits. We are just like them." We are not. How deluded can Indians be to not see the huge gulf that exists between India and Pakistan. Secularism does not allow us to admit that Islam plays a huge role in sectarian killings in Pakistan. So we are same same only.

Sorry for the rant..
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Chandragupta »

RajeshA wrote: Pakistan uses "Talks" as a means of diverting attention from its real 1000 cuts strategy. I don't mind, if GoI too uses "Talks" as distraction from our endeavors elsewhere to weaken Pakistani Army. Talks are simply a tennis game for the entertainment of all the onlookers in the gallery, and everybody on BRF knows they are not meant to achieve anything.
+1

I never understood what did we talk about with Pakistan. They want us to hand over Kashmir and we want them to stop killing our men. Where is the balance? The ideal talks would be when Pakistan pleads to us to stop killing TSPA on LC/IB, stop our covert military actions in Balochistan & Sindh and beg us to allow them to include Kashmir in the talks while we talk to them about handing over Dawood, Masood & Hafiz Sayeed.

I will support those kind of talks.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

Chandragupta wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Pakistan uses "Talks" as a means of diverting attention from its real 1000 cuts strategy. I don't mind, if GoI too uses "Talks" as distraction from our endeavors elsewhere to weaken Pakistani Army. Talks are simply a tennis game for the entertainment of all the onlookers in the gallery, and everybody on BRF knows they are not meant to achieve anything.
+1

I never understood what did we talk about with Pakistan. They want us to hand over Kashmir and we want them to stop killing our men. Where is the balance?
Exactly ! That is the crux of the matter.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Bhurishrava »

Lets say chai biskoot talks are fine.
What was that nonsense about inviting Pakis to Indian air base. What did that achieve?!
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

Shiv sir,

GOI don't have to do a referendum of the entire population to decide their Pak policy. Anyway everyone I know wants action and will support it.

They have a mandate to act. The power of ONE sir - the one being a PM with a massive mandate. He doesn't have to go to Rajya Sabha to hit Pak. If GOI decides on strong resolute action the country will back them even though MSM might or might not howl. This is vote winner not a vote looser.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

shiv wrote:
You can make the blind see, but not the Indian who does not want to see that Pakistan was set up as hatred of Hindu India and as a bastion of Islam. Its survival as country with all the fissures between Pakjab, Sindh, Pakhtun, Baluch, Baltis, shia, sunni, Ahmedi, Barelvi, Deobandi and Wahhabi are stitched together by hatred for India.

No secular Indian has the balls to say that Islam allows the killing of opponents. Who are the opponent factions in Islamic Pakistan? They are Sunni, or Shias, or Sufis or Christians or Ahmedis. Or Sindhis or Baluchis. This is nothing like India, but yet Indians have managed to convince themselves that we Indians are the same and that there is some deep "normality" in Pakistan that will come up if trade and democracy are established. Or that India is much like Pakistan and we just need to be patient with them.
.

Shiv,

I really don't think these people are a large proportion of the population. I think we give them far more importance than their number deserve. And what will they do if we act ? Lets say PM acts? Kya ukhad lenge ye log ?
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by UlanBatori »

India is a "young nation". What % of Indians know or care what the Kargil War was? My guess is, less than 50%.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by shiv »

Akshay Kapoor wrote: I really don't think these people are a large proportion of the population. I think we give them far more importance than their number deserve. And what will they do if we act ? Lets say PM acts? Kya ukhad lenge ye log ?
The way I see it is as follows, right or wrong.

Why is it that this PM or any other PM have not acted despite grave provocation?
a. Could it be because of fear of Pakistan? No
b. Could it be because of lack of forces/means to punish? No
c. Is it because of Pakistani nukes? Unlikely
d. It it because punishment, at least at the border will destroy or economy? No

I keep ticking off reasons and don't get anywhere until I come across the words, trade, democracy, cooperation, talks etc and then it seems to me that there is a belief among the Indian polity that these things can count with Pakistan. And when I start suspecting my own reasoning and thinking I must be wrong, I look at what the US is doing. The US is pumping money into Pakistan (along with arms) and asking that Pakistan winds down terror groups. The US puts LeT, Saeed etc on terror lists and asks Pakistan to settle itself internally. And what does Pakistan do? It does none of these things. It simply swallows the money and goes suicidal. The US is also doing everything to treat Pakistan like a normal country. And it's not working. And Christine Fair gets her chaddis in a twist trying to point that out.

I think people, even in high positions, have a fundamental mental resistance to seeing any country being as dysfunctional as Pakistan. I see Parthasarathy, Gen Hasnain and a few others accurately point out Pakistan's real behaviour - but it makes no dent on decision makers. What am I to think? I do not get the feeling that people are reading Pakistan properly and it will not be handled properly as long as it is not read properly.

I am certain Doval knows Pakistan well. Why then does Modi do what he does? I have believed that he is simply consolidating himself politically in a country where the vast majority of normal people still think there is an element of "normality" in Pakistan. If I stand back and judge Modi differently I would say that he is demonstrating, step by excruciating step, to his opponents and supporters, that Pakistan is not a normal nation.

This is the train of thought that I use to judge the "average" Indian's belief about Pakistan, Right or wrong.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by RajeshA »

Bhurishrava wrote:Lets say chai biskoot talks are fine.
What was that nonsense about inviting Pakis to Indian air base. What did that achieve?!
Just as a mind-game,

what is the difference between the above opinion and that of the gentleman below?

Arvind Kejriwal 5 Apr 2016
Sir, मोदी जी ने ISI को बुलाकर भारत माता के साथ बहुत बड़ा धोखा किया है। पता नहीं मोदी जी और नवाज़ में क्या डील हुई है

So if NaMo's attitude can be compared to that of UPA Government's with dossier-pushing and inaction otherwise, based on criticism for sending Paki "investigation team" to Pathankot, one can compare a BRF reaction to that of Kejriwal, right?

This is not supposed to be any personal criticism of anybody. I am trying to point out that outward behavior and words cannot be the right measure to assess true intentions and behind-the-scenes behavior.

Parties with opposite views and intentions could use the same kind of language!
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Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2016

Post by Peregrine »

Meanwhile back at the Pig Sty :

Water crisis looms in capital amid massive water pilferage
ISLAMABAD: Water crisis has deepened in the federal capital owing to slackness and negligence of Capital Development Authority (CDA) in launching any action against rampant illegal boring, water thieves, illegal tube wells and mushrooming illegal water connections in every sector of the federal capital.

The citizens have been forced to go for illegal boring in the wake of acute shortage of water and ever-dwindling supply of water in the sectors. Due to 60,000 cases of illegal boring, level of underground water has plunged further in the capital city. Over 220 million gallon water is required daily to cater to the need of over two million population of twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad while only 90 million gallon water is available with civic body to supply to citizens. 40 percent of the available water is stolen. The underground level of water has dropped by 40 feet owing to existence of more than 60,000 illegal water boring.
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Last edited by Peregrine on 08 Apr 2016 16:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by A_Gupta »

From Basit's statement it is amply clear that the talks with Pakistan were about terrorism only, and Pakistan is suspending the talks because the talks are not (and will not be) about J&K. It is clear that Modi sarkaar has stuck to its stance that talks with Pakistan will be about terrorism only, and other issues will be in abeyance until terrorism is settled and ended.

PM Modi's stand internationally is that terrorism can be stopped only when nations stop differentiating between "good" and "bad" terrorism. Actually, this has been India's stand for quite a while, but PM Modi has given it more heft with his international diplomacy. The suspension by Pakistan of talks demonstrates to the world that Pakistan is still playing the good/bad terrorism game. This is the message to the world that should not be lost amidst internal recriminations about "failed" policy.

This message is amplified by the Chinese statement in the government-owned Global Times that China cannot rely on Pakistan despite massive investment because of the dismal security situation there.

In this decades' long battle with Pakistan, there is an incremental gain here. I suppose incremental gains are never enough. On a personal note, it is funny when I, a perpetual Modi skeptic, write to defend him.

PS: A bit off-topic, but Shiv wrote in this thread that the US will never admit that the Iraq invasion was a mistake. Officially, of course it never will. But in the Democratic Party, that the Iraq war was a mistake has long been accepted, and Hillary Clinton, who supported the war, has apologized for her mistake; and the other leading candidate, Bernie Sanders, bases his campaign in part on the fact that he opposed that war all along.

The voters for Republican Party, the party of George W. Bush, have implicitly admitted that the Iraq War was a mistake. When Donald Trump excoriated G.W. Bush for the Iraq war and even put the responsibility for 9/11on Bush, it did not hurt him the least bit in the polls.

As a practical matter, Obama's reluctance to enter the Syrian war, to threaten Iran with military action over nukes, or to aid the Sunni states in Yemen also stems from the perception that the Iraq war was a mistake. This is not to say that neocon pro-war interventionists in the US are a spent force.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Falijee »

Altaf Bhai- Hugely Fat And On His Last Legs?

Per Friday Times of Hajam Sethi.

Our mole in Londres reports that the Quaid-e-Qiwam is now so hugely fat that he can barely move. Apparently, he cannot wear shoes, so swollen are his feet, and his liver and kidney functions are poor. It’s said that he has round the clock home carers, three qualified nurses, who take turns to attend him. His home is also said to be geared up for medical emergencies. The Quaid was advised by his doctors to check into hospital but he and his advisors have resisted that, believing that it would confirm suspicions about his failing health.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by Peregrine »

Requesting MODS Indulgence :

Indian Foreign Exchange attain Record Levels US$ 359.7598 Billion

Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves : US$ 359.7598 Billion

BTW : Equal=Equal Cwapistan Forex Reserves :

State Bank : US$16,078.1 Billion Commercial Banks : US$4,806.8 Billion
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by johneeG »

Akshay saar,
forget pak for a moment, I have another question: how should Indian state deal with Kashmir valley (reference NIT)?
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-Jan 24, 2

Post by svinayak »

RajeshA wrote:Akshay Kapoor ji,

I know that UPA govts did not really have any backend war with Pak, simply because they are "ek hi thaali ke chatte-batte", belong to the same Mughlai flock, and any Dossier-pushing they did, was in fact ALL they did. Talks were a foil for inaction. I am sure this govt. is different, even though superficially they would seem to behave similarly to look just as Gandhian. This ACT is necessary for a number of different reasons - internal and external, and is to be used as a foil for covert aggression. This govt. is NOT Mughlai.
UPA was not working the state to state relations with pak. UPA was not holding the State of P responsible and was trying to build relations outside with allowing groups to talk with Pak state and Amb.

UPA missed the whole idea of Indian state interest and national security of the state. UPA system and c system allowed the Pak durbar to enter dilli and lobby inside as if they are part of the UPA darbar. They could not differentiate between foreigner and Indians.
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