IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

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kapilrdave
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by kapilrdave »

Thanks Viv S and Bhaskar_t for the explanation. I thought RM reported said that he is not interested in "buying" the a/c but in MII only. Hence I was wondering what's the incentive for LM/Bo in this deal. Their assembly line is closing exactly because they don't have the orders. Then what would they do by setting up a new assembly in India.

But now I see a report where RM talks about purchasing 300 aircrafts :shock: (unbelievable). Now after this, US's interest in this deal makes perfect sense.

Also, it is noteworthy that RM said that India will review the "proposal" of various companies (all from MMRCA circus) for a deal under MII :-? . This is confusing. Shouldn't it be the other way around that India lays the red carpet to ALL the manufacturers unconditionally under MII campaign and try to please them for the same without promising to actually buy them?

Now the circus has changed its name from MMRCA to "Make in India jet fighter deal" just when we thought that we have finally got rid of this farce :roll: .
Last edited by kapilrdave on 12 Apr 2016 12:38, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Cain Marko »

srai wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:300 fighters! MOSTLY for the iaf, which means expect a few for the navy. My guess is that the navy's next gen requirement will also be solved here. Shornet is looking stronger by the minute. no wonder saab is making noises about naval gripen.

...
If that 300 import number ever becomes a reality, then that would be a step back for indigenous design efforts. That many quantities would mean no more LCAs, or even AMCA. Why would the IAF need AMCA when they will have brand new imported 4th-Gen aircraft coming fresh off licensed production line for another 15-years (or longer)? These planes would be around for another 40-years.

History repeating itself. Didn't the Jaguar purchase in the late 1970s kill off Indian designs?]
Yes, it would be unpardonable if the LCA is capped @ 120 units. But let us see IF this has to necessarily be the case..

Consider that MP suggests the fighters might be more than just for the IAF. My guess is the IN will wind up getting 60-100 of these birds for the Vishal Class.

This leaves about 200 fighters for the IAF....the original number bandied about for the MRCA. It is possible to have 200 MRCA (2018-30 induction) + 270 MKI (2000-20 induction) + 200 LCA (2016-30 induction) + 126 FGFA (2025-35 induction) + 126 AMCA (2035-40 induction).

Allowing for about 900 fighters, reasonable for a 45-50 sqd AF. As the MKIs start to retire, more FGFA and AMCA will come in.

Frankly though I simply don't see the point of this exercise - 300 a/c will cost an insane amount but this will include the IN's requirement too. Still, if a chunk of that moolah is invested in getting higher uptimes and better upgrades for the MKI along with an uber LCA, which can later be transfered to the pvt sector, along with additional MKI and SMTs for interim crunch, the money might be better spent.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

ldev wrote:


India's Rafale deal in trouble over offsets and cost

Alongside enduring price differences between India and France over the deal for 36 Dassault Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force (IAF), announced exactly 12 months ago, sharp differences have once again resurfaced over offsets.

Official sources said senior Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials are believed to have recently rejected Thales' offer of discharging a 'substantial' portion of the mandatory 50% offset requirement of the overall Rafale contract price by helping India develop three 'smart cities'.

Thales provides equipment and systems - including avionics - that account for around a third of each Rafale's total value.

In response to Thales' offer, the MoD maintained that such an indirect offset provision was not part of the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2013, under which the twin-engine Rafales were being acquired via an inter-governmental agreement (IGA)
.

Complete:
Alongside enduring price differences between India and France over the deal for 36 Dassault Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force (IAF), announced exactly 12 months ago, sharp differences have once again resurfaced over offsets.

Official sources said senior Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials are believed to have recently rejected Thales' offer of discharging a 'substantial' portion of the mandatory 50% offset requirement of the overall Rafale contract price by helping India develop three 'smart cities'.

Thales provides equipment and systems - including avionics - that account for around a third of each Rafale's total value.

In response to Thales' offer, the MoD maintained that such an indirect offset provision was not part of the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2013, under which the twin-engine Rafales were being acquired via an inter-governmental agreement (IGA). The DPP 2013 stipulates that offsets can be defrayed only in the military, civil aviation, internal security, and related service sectors and contains no provision for discharging ancillary offsets.

During President François Hollande's visit to India in January, France had agreed to assist New Delhi in transforming Chandigarh in northern India, Puducherry in the south, and Nagpur in the west into 'smart cities'. The initiative was part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's plan to create 100 efficient, ecologically friendly, and technologically integrated cities across India.

Consequently, senior leaders from both sides had informally agreed that Thales could defray a proportion of its offset obligations via the 'smart city' scheme, as France was struggling to accommodate India's insistence on the inordinately high offset requirement.

However, once this proposal reverted to the MoD, it came up against the DPP 2013, which does not permit deviation from stipulated norms to include indirect offsets such as the 'smart cities' proposal.

"There is no way any MoD official can consent to this offset package," said Amit Cowshish, a former MoD advisor on acquisitions. Only the government can sanction it, but it would also face difficulty in clearing it, as this would be a major policy divergence that would be eagerly taken up by the parliamentary opposition, he added.

Even if the government did decide to proceed with Thales' 'smart cities' proposal, it would need approval from the MoD's Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), where, once more, it could face obstruction from officials unwilling to digress from specified guidelines.

Meanwhile, other offset possibilities under negotiation by Dassault include joint collaboration with Reliance Defence to locally manufacture components and structural parts for its Falcon 7X business jets and providing Rafale simulators to the IAF.

Alongside this, Safran, which provides key components for the Rafale, had entered into partnership with Bharat Forge to make high-integrity forged and machined components for commercial aircraft.

Meanwhile, the stalemate persists between India and France over the eventual price of the 36 Rafales. While Dassault is demanding around USD10.5-11 billion for the aircraft, including their weapons package, India is believed to be willing to pay around USD8.5-9 billion.

There is also financial disagreement over the 10-year engineering support package (EPS) that the IAF wants included in the sale price. Dassault opposes this and is reportedly demanding a substantial sum for the EPS that the IAF is unwilling to pay, according to official sources.

Industry officials have questioned India's position in wanting to buy 36 Rafales for around USD9 billion, considering that Qatar ordered 24 of them in May 2015 for USD7.1 billion.

"India's pricing defies all commercial logic, resulting in the logjam," said a senior industry official. Bridging these financial gaps will be difficult, he cautioned.

On 10 April 2015 Modi had abrogated ongoing negotiations for 126 Rafales - 108 of which would have been licence-built in India - and announced in Paris that the IAF would instead initially acquire 36 Rafales off-the-shelf for the same price that the French Air Force paid for them.

Thereafter, however, the deal was complicated by the MoD insisting on 50% offsets and the IAF demanding that the fighters be customised to meet its requirements and that should Dassault provide two maintenance and repair depots as well as a 10-year ESP package at no extra cost.

In a related development, an IAF contingent departed from Jamanagar on India's west coast on 3 April for Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) in Alaska to participate in the fortnight-long multinational 'Red Flag 16-1' exercises conducted by the US Air Force (USAF) from 28 April. The IAF is fielding four Su-30MKI and four Jaguar fighters, two Ilyushin Il-78 tankers, and two C-17 transports for the exercises.

"The exercises will provide ample opportunity for the exchange of ideas relating to the concept of operations in a dynamic warfare environment," an IAF statement declared.

The IAF previously participated in the 'Red Flag' exercises at Nellis AFB in Nevada in 2008 with eight Su-30MKIs, but has not attended subsequent 'Red Flags' due to a financial resource crunch.

In 2004 the IAF also took part in the USAF's 'Cope Thunder' exercises in Alaska.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by NRao »

Official sources said senior Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials are believed to have recently rejected Thales' offer of discharging a 'substantial' portion of the mandatory 50% offset requirement of the overall Rafale contract price by helping India develop three 'smart cities'.
:rotfl:

I thought I had seen enough clowns when IT people got into "smart cities". Now Thale too? Wow.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Kersi D »

kit wrote:300 fighters is almost an air force by itself ..but i guess they will be mostly replacements in the time frames they can come ?
How many countries have an air force of 300 aircraft ? Definitely less than 10, probably 5
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by RoyG »

Where is arthuro? :lol:
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by arthuro »

Here I am :D

There is two way to look at it :

1) it can be a moment to pressurize Dassault to extract the best deal possible. In this context, reading such reports is not surprising...just like playing the US option. But that does not mean it will not be signed in the end. That would not be the first time to read bad and good news following each other. Just that people are going crazy after every piece of news. That would not be the first time.

2) it can indeed mean there is a big issue that cannot be solved. In this case one often blame the other side while responsibilities might come from both sides as hereabove article suggests.

We are probably at a peak moment in terms of negotiations...So it does not surprise me to read such reports. Especially that they often repeat each other. I guess it is still around 50/50 to happen. We are getting closer to the end of this drama at last.

Dassault/Thales can probably blamed for many things, but I would say that in terms of procurement management, there will be plenty to learn for India whatever the outcome of the negotiations.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by SaiK »

he perhaps meant 300 AMCAs rather. why MMRCA?
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by GeorgeWelch »

It just says 300 aircraft, not 300 fighters.

It might be including other aircraft like trainers.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by member_27581 »

So does mr carter's trip goes down the crater and it becomes like the Hollande r day trip....all bonhomie and no deal...his trip was from 10-12...it's 13 now..

Where are the 300 planes....hope we didnt include paper planes..of the MoUs, IoUs ILUs etc..

else it's back to waiting for LCA and Su 30 only..honestly this govt is no less..it's like "Govts are temporary HAL/IAF/MOD/DGMF attitudes are permanent"
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Cain Marko »

^ Aptly put Sir Humphrey...
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Viv S »

ranjan.rao wrote:So does mr carter's trip goes down the crater and it becomes like the Hollande r day trip....all bonhomie and no deal...his trip was from 10-12...it's 13 now..

Where are the 300 planes....hope we didnt include paper planes..of the MoUs, IoUs ILUs etc..
The fighters & defence pacts were only scheduled for discussion as I recall. At best the MoD will only agree to assess the proposals. I did expect them to sign the M777 deal though.
else it's back to waiting for LCA and Su 30 only..honestly this govt is no less..it's like "Govts are temporary HAL/IAF/MOD/DGMF attitudes are permanent"
Not necessarily a bad thing. We wouldn't have to 'wait' for the Su-30 though and the Tejas should be at full rate production within two years. A private sector line for the Tejas.. now that would be worth celebrating. Not holding my breath though.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by NRao »

The decision on the planes will be made at the end of this year or early next.

The two next milestones are Jet Engine - talks with GE (looks like the GOT US had given approval on all techs) and RFI for building the carrier and here I think it will be US centric players. The carrier supposedly is "co-produced".
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Karan M »

Buy 80 F/A-18s instead of 126. Use that money to build a huge spares stockpile and negotiate that upfront with Khan so that these aircraft get (relatively) sanction proof. Have a comprehensive weapons package so that we can finally get a proper PGM and multirole munitions inventory.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by GeorgeWelch »

Lockheed Martin’s ad shows Super Hornet defeating dogfight missile fired by J-20
Lockheed Martin uploaded an ad on Apr. 11 showcasing its high energy laser weapons capabilities. One of the segments show a Super Hornet in a dogfight with a J-20. The Chinese fighter launched a short-range dogfight missile at the pursuing F/A-18 and the weapon was defeated by a laser pod mounted under the wing of the fighter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmRjd7P26jQ

I wonder who that ad is targeting.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

GeorgeWelch wrote:Lockheed Martin’s ad shows Super Hornet defeating dogfight missile fired by J-20
Lockheed Martin uploaded an ad on Apr. 11 showcasing its high energy laser weapons capabilities. One of the segments show a Super Hornet in a dogfight with a J-20. The Chinese fighter launched a short-range dogfight missile at the pursuing F/A-18 and the weapon was defeated by a laser pod mounted under the wing of the fighter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmRjd7P26jQ

I wonder who that ad is targeting.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7088&p=2005100#p2005100
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

Export "teens"to which nation? Almost every US ally has been operating them for decades and are dumping them for F-35s! We will be throwing away good cssh for legacy birds born 40 yrs ago! As some have said,if we want a US bird the JSF is a better bsrgain,but only after it has ben fully certified.It is simply too complex right now.

Cheapest option,more Ru birds and LCAs,but a US legacy buy would kill off the LCA.Buying/manufacturing 120+Gripens and 200 LCAs if we wsnt a Western bird.Look how Brazil dumped the Rafale for the Gripen.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by member_28756 »

Philip wrote:Export "teens"to which nation? Almost every US ally has been operating them for decades and are dumping them for F-35s! We will be throwing away good cssh for legacy birds born 40 yrs ago! As some have said,if we want a US bird the JSF is a better bsrgain,but only after it has ben fully certified.It is simply too complex right now.

Cheapest option,more Ru birds and LCAs,but a US legacy buy would kill off the LCA.Buying/manufacturing 120+Gripens and 200 LCAs if we wsnt a Western bird.Look how Brazil dumped the Rafale for the Gripen.
http://defenceaviationpost.com/2016/04/ ... hter-jets/

India set to approve manufacturing facility for US fighter jets

April 13, 2016 Posted by Anupama Airy

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by kapilrdave »

Hmm. No mention of 300 aircraft purchase in the above report.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Bhaskar_T »

Referring to red font below, why buying US legacy aircraft (because we can't afford 126/190 Rafales) will kill LCA because you seem to imply MMRCA is a LCA killer.
Philip wrote:Export "teens"to which nation? Almost every US ally has been operating them for decades and are dumping them for F-35s! We will be throwing away good cssh for legacy birds born 40 yrs ago! As some have said,if we want a US bird the JSF is a better bsrgain,but only after it has ben fully certified.It is simply too complex right now.

Cheapest option,more Ru birds and LCAs,but a US legacy buy would kill off the LCA.Buying/manufacturing 120+Gripens and 200 LCAs if we wsnt a Western bird.Look how Brazil dumped the Rafale for the Gripen.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

Bhaskar yes,becos the great boffins at HAL /ADA forgot to realize that a production line was required for the LCA and are scratching their b...s in search for an itch cure! They can only make 6+/yr when we need at least 20+. What the US wants to do is to dump upon us there outdated,weatherbeaten manufacturing units (of course refurbished) which have already produced thousands of such fighters,being dumped worldwide,and like an earlier offer for the humble Northrop "Freedom Fighter"a couple of decades ago,are rehashing the same deal. The manufacturing/production unit will churn out legacy "Teens" faster than the LCA prod line.Therefore, "Pop goes the weasel/LCA".
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Viv S »

Philip wrote:Bhaskar yes,becos the great boffins at HAL /ADA forgot to realize that a production line was required for the LCA and are scratching their b...s in search for an itch cure! They can only make 6+/yr when we need at least 20+. What the US wants to do is to dump upon us there outdated,weatherbeaten manufacturing units (of course refurbished) which have already produced thousands of such fighters,being dumped worldwide,and like an earlier offer for the humble Northrop "Freedom Fighter"a couple of decades ago,are rehashing the same deal. The manufacturing/production unit will churn out legacy "Teens" faster than the LCA prod line.Therefore, "Pop goes the weasel/LCA".
All this outrage about outdated trash dumping would have been so much more credible had you not been flogging the MiG-29 for the IAF all along.

:idea:

May I suggest you open two BRF user accounts - under one pseudonym you can talk up Russian gear over Indian garbage gear, while under the other you can talk up Indian gear over western garbage. Problem solved. :wink:
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Philip »

Viv,follow your own advice! When the truth hits you, you cannot combat it intelligently and start to get personal.The MIG-29 in exercises with the IAF years ago was found superior to the M-2000,plus even Western evaluatior of legacy 29s found them better dogfighters than F-16s.Why the Paki F-16s turned tail at Kargil when our MIGs arrived.The upgraded ones are far more improved .The IN is quite happy with their 29Ks.The MIG-29/35s are still the best cost-effective aircraft to keep sqd numbers happy,but if the IAF do not want to put all their eggs in the Ru basket,the best Western cost-effective answer is the Gripen,not the "teens",old hags with an overdose of make up. Do you honestly think that they will be able to deal with Chinese Flankers?
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by member_20453 »

How is the Mig-35 not an old hag with an overdose of make up?
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Cain Marko »

Sure, but it is a lot cheaper...Philip is absolutely right on this part. And, I'll take the new fulcrum which has an even better twr than the original, over the fat viper any day...

Problem with the 35 is as Philip put it...too much in the russki basket and even they know this. Not to mention the shoddy after sales support..other than that, it is a beast for the price.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Viv S »

Philip wrote:Viv,follow your own advice! When the truth hits you, you cannot combat it intelligently and start to get personal.
Settle down. Didn't mean to ruffle your feathers Assamese Rhino hide.
The MIG-29 in exercises with the IAF years ago was found superior to the M-2000,plus even Western evaluatior of legacy 29s found them better dogfighters than F-16s.
As I recall, the IAF found the Mirage to be an excellent & reliable, albeit pricey, multi-role fighter jet while the MiG-29 with its higher ITR & STR turned out to be a maintenance/serviceability nightmare.

As for Western evaluators, they only said the MiG's HMD-Archer combination made it dominant in the WVR arena. In most other respect, the F-16 was a superior aircraft. Better avionics, better man-machine-interface, better reliability and better endurance.
Why the Paki F-16s turned tail at Kargil when our MIGs arrived.
They're two possibilities. One is that they'd heard about the fearsome MiG-29 and were so terrified by the notion of air combat that they lost their nerve the moment they neared the LoC (note: there were no visual tallies on the MiG-29).

Then there's the other ('outlandish') possibility; that the 20 year old sanctioned F-16s devoid of upgrades, being equipped with only an old variant of the Sidewinder, had no way of engaging in BVR combat (in contrast to AMRAAM-equipped NATO Vipers), and prudently withdrew when painted at range by a hostile radar.
The upgraded ones are far more improved .The IN is quite happy with their 29Ks.The MIG-29/35s are still the best cost-effective aircraft to keep sqd numbers happy
The upgraded F-16Vs are also "far more improved" (incl. a third gen AESA & a new EW system). Meanwhile, ongoing upgrades will take the Super Hornet into the Eurocanard league.

With reliability and options for local production factored in, both types are reasonably cost-effective, even if they aren't an adequate step-up from in-production aircraft being delivered to the IAF.
,but if the IAF do not want to put all their eggs in the Ru basket,the best Western cost-effective answer is the Gripen,not the "teens",old hags with an overdose of make up. Do you honestly think that they will be able to deal with Chinese Flankers?
I expect both types to do better than the MiG-35 against the Chinese Flankers in most BVR engagements (far better in the case of the advanced SH). The difference would be even more stark in a strike-role/swing-role, especially given the variety, capability & reliability of their weapons complement.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by GeorgeWelch »

Philip wrote:The MIG-29 in exercises with the IAF years ago was found superior to the M-2000
Which is why the IAF was so eager to procure more Mirages.
Philip wrote:Why the Paki F-16s turned tail at Kargil when our MIGs arrived.
That was a policy decision by Pakistan. If their pilots had been ordered to fight they would have fought. Instead they were ordered to avoid a fight so they did. There was absolutely nothing special about the MiG-29 besides the fact that it was there and capable of launching an AAM.
Philip wrote:The upgraded ones are far more improved.
The Viper and SH have and will continue receive far more investment in upgrades.

Just look at the latest example with the anti-missile laser pod they're working on.
Philip wrote:The IN is quite happy with their 29Ks.
How do you know? And in comparison to what? Harriers?

Why would they be happy with some 'old hags with an overdose of make up'?
Philip wrote:Do you honestly think that they will be able to deal with Chinese Flankers?
The kill chain is long and complex, and any vulnerability in it can be ruthlessly exploited.

What good is a slow speed airshow flip if you don't even know the enemy is there?

What good is being able to see them if you can't get a lock?

What good is a lock if your missiles get distracted by decoys?

What good are missiles that reject decoys if they get burned out of the air?

The fact remains that the teens have and will continue to receive the investment needed to exploit others while reducing their own vulnerabilities.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

And, I'll take the new fulcrum which has an even better twr than the original, over the fat viper any day...
The 'fat' viper is 'fat' because in that configuration it is kitted for long range, heavy strike. No one has to carry those CFT's if they are deploying for a host of other missions. Want to do air-air, just use EFT's just like the US Vipers do on CAP. Other than the air-ground targeting pod, everything on the UAE's birds is integrated including the IRST, and Digital EW Suite so if they wanted to use the aircraft primarily for air-air, they can strip the air-ground pods, and CFT's and what they have is a viper that is significantly better given they have the more powerful engine compared to USAF's.

Image

What a 'fat' viper allows its users to do however, is to operate a fairly low-maintaince, low LCC aircraft to deploy the widest, and most flexible range of PGM's on the planet. From more expensive stand-off munitions like the JASSM, to the cheaper PGM's that can now go from anywhere from a few nautical miles (range) to up to 80 km for the new JDAM-ER. In case of the UAE that is the only nation to currently operate a modern F-16, the air-air threat was practically absent and that allowed them to configure their F-16's for the mission they will encounter the most i.e. striking defended targets allowing them to invest in a significantly enhanced EW suite that could geolocate and target emitters much earlier than competing systems could for example. Same applies to their AESA radar - F-15C's and F-22s were the only western fighters that had an AESA before UAE and the raptor only beat them by a few months. They got in both air-air and air-ground, a significant enhancement when it came to range, resolution, survivability in jamming, SAR performance, reliability and effectiveness.

Contrary to what is often portrayed in discussion boards, any air-force has a much wider missions set than to just gain air-superiority and the Air-Superiority needs often dictates force structure that is dedicated to achieving this. What I am getting to is essentially that the Air-Superiority in the Pakistani or Chinese Context would be based on the collective work of the LCA, AMCA, Su-30, MMRCA, T-50 etc working closely with other assets. What a multi-role fighter must also conduct a plethora of other strike, and ISR missions and do so repeatedly. Here things like the mission-system capability, networked operations, PGM-delivery and PGM inventory (Type and quantity) matters as these things have been PROVEN to offer a competitive edge in terms of turning the equation from 'sorties per target to - targets per sorties'. You simply cannot focus on one mission since the aircraft being demanded has to have multi-role capability and this is where the quantity, capability, and choices available to an F-16 customer are exceptionally high and come from a host of nations that have over the years kept modernizing their weapons to support the platform.

Switching over to the Adv. Shornet, there is nothing stopping an end-user from going in with an EPE solution as opposed to an EDE solution and gaining significant performance improvement in acceleration that comes from a 20% increase in thrust without a corresponding increase in weight. You can shed the CFT's and carry bags on air-air missions. However, as stated earlier the Rhino comes with a more than decade worth of enhancements in things like sensor-fusion, computing and developing new waveforms to enhance multi-ship Situational Awareness. And this compares to a baseline, that started with a clean sheet AESA radar and Next Generation processors. One can obviously ignore these advantages as others have done and suggest AESA radars are overrated and an 'OEM's are pushing them down operators throats (despite no evidence to support it), and that everyone has the same level of 'sensor-fusion' but that would be contrary to facts and realities on the ground.

The Mig-35 offers a lot of enhancements over the Mig-29K but its still early days and the first operational aircraft has not even delivered to its first customer. We KNOW from the recent history that mission system upgrades, enhancements, and maturation is the single largest cost/investment driver in modern combat aircraft (Having gone through the development of the LCA and being in the design phase of the AMCA, those that follow these programs closely would vouch for that) and this wil remain true for decades given how fast technology is maturing, particularly in computing, semi-conductors, the resultants benefits in radars, communication, Electronic Warfare, and survivability enhancement. Given that is the case, someone would need to take control of the Mig-35 over the next couple of decades to make sure it is up to the task when it comes to the sort of threats the IAF is likely to go up against. In case of the Rhino, the USN has it and will continue to have it as its most numerous fighter till well beyond 2030, and to add the air-air threat faced by the USN is from Chinese advanced fourth, 4.5 and 5th generation aircraft. Hence the roadmap for the SH enhancements, and why they have been constantly investing in the program to keep it relevant and at pace to stay up to date. In addition to EXISTING INVESTMENTS to make the Super Hornet significantly more effective for the 2020's, there are plenty of things lined up for the program going forward. Even if one disregards the significant lead in system-integration, maturity and capability of the block III+ Rhino to the Mig-29/35 the institutional support of the USN alone should give any perspective customer high confidence in the fact that their product would be enhanced (at someone else's R&D expense) to keep pace with the threat.

All the changes that make a Super Hornet an Advanced Hornet are available as kits to be upgraded at the depot level except the new cockpit which may be a totally non issue (from a risk perspective) if the rumors of the Saudi's adopting it for their F-15SA's are to be believed. Boeing's Wide Panel Display's were to leverage a common investment on the Adv./Int. Shornet as on the Silent Eagle.

Image
even Western evaluatior of legacy 29s found them better dogfighters than F-16s
Contrary positions also exist, and have been provided to you that you have ignored. I have in the past pointed you to a pilot that has flown both against each other (flown the mig-29 vs the F-16 and Vice Versa). Air-Combat is a complicated thing and is not just one feature. A JHMCSII + 9XBlkII/ASRAAM kitted Rhino is as good as any when it comes to dogfight - survivability and it all comes down to TTP's and support. It won't be F-18 vs J-10 or J-20 alone and if you get into that then you are taking an approach that is completely dissociated with the reality of modern air-combat. Simple things such as being able to strike pin point targets from 300 km, has immense implications even in air-superiority especially if you have an inventory to support long range percission targeting even from stand-off ranges of say 60-100 km. SDBI, SDBII, JDAM-ER all allow for this, and this ability for TacAir assets to carry out strikes from such ranges without the expense of missiles has some serious force-structure implications for an opponent trying to maintain air-superiority over a theater. This is before I bring in things like JSOW-C, JASSM, JSM, and even AARGM.
Last edited by brar_w on 14 Apr 2016 21:39, edited 1 time in total.
NRao
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by NRao »

And, I'll take the new fulcrum which has an even better twr than the original, over the fat viper any day..
Multiple points.

Is the new Fulcrum even there? It was expected to *start* tests at the end of this year - at the earliest.

Latest stuff is about "networks". I mean data intense stuff. That is what the US relies on because of their expeditionary nature. Russians have no such need and consequently are not as mature. IAF has leaned towards the US model. Just the way things are.

IAF comments on the 29 are really old. The popular belief is that the IAF advised the Russians not to participate in the MMRCA competition. ?????

Irrespective of what we think Russia has been tagged as an energy resource. Long before all this. ?????

IN has been having problems with their 29s.

I would think the FGFA is a better alternative if they can find a solution to a problem that we do not about.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Cain Marko »

^ Brarji, the fat bit hit a nerve did it? :-) No offence meant...I realize the solah has considerably evolved over time, and offers some serious capability, but couple of questions nevertheless remain esp. Vis a vis the hornet and even the 35...
1. Has internal fuel for the bird increased with the additional thrust and empty weight increases over time? If not, wouldn't efts cfts become mandatory even possibly for a qra type mission? This is something that both the shornet and fulcrum especially did quite well.
2. Which af is going to use the bird in decades to come so as to create a viable upgrade path? How much is the usaf invested in this?

Frankly, one area where the Russian birds handily best most western birds, and I think the gripen is the sole exception here, is on price, and this includes lcc imho. . the one area where the viper has an edge is probably in fuel consumption being a single engined bird, but that too is not a given considering that the rds are rather frugal and have low sfc. Add in things like costly western upgrades and the price really sky rockets...
In any case, the one basket issue and support problems make the fulcrum rather unlikely.

Frankly, for the indian context, I'd take the hornet....and I've elaborated on this at length earlier.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by titash »

brar_w wrote:
And, I'll take the new fulcrum which has an even better twr than the original, over the fat viper any day...
The 'fat' viper is 'fat' because in that configuration it is kitted for long range, heavy strike. No one has to carry those CFT's if they are deploying for a host of other missions. Want to do air-air, just use EFT's just like the US Vipers do on CAP. Other than the air-ground targeting pod, everything on the UAE's birds is integrated including the IRST, and Digital EW Suite so if they wanted to use the aircraft primarily for air-air, they can strip the air-ground pods, and CFT's and what they have is a viper that is significantly better given they have the more powerful engine compared to USAF's.

What a 'fat' viper allows its users to do however, is to operate a fairly low-maintaince, low LCC aircraft to deploy the widest, and most flexible range of PGM's on the planet. From more expensive stand-off munitions like the JASSM, to the cheaper PGM's that can now go from anywhere from a few nautical miles (range) to up to 80 km for the new JDAM-ER. In case of the UAE that is the only nation to currently operate a modern F-16, the air-air threat was practically absent and that allowed them to configure their F-16's for the mission they will encounter the most i.e. striking defended targets allowing them to invest in a significantly enhanced EW suite that could geolocate and target emitters much earlier than competing systems could for example. Same applies to their AESA radar - F-15C's and F-22s were the only western fighters that had an AESA before UAE and the raptor only beat them by a few months. They got in both air-air and air-ground, a significant enhancement when it came to range, resolution, survivability in jamming, SAR performance, reliability and effectiveness.

Contrary to what is often portrayed in discussion boards, any air-force has a much wider missions set than to just gain air-superiority and the Air-Superiority needs often dictates force structure that is dedicated to achieving this. What I am getting to is essentially that the Air-Superiority in the Pakistani or Chinese Context would be based on the collective work of the LCA, AMCA, Su-30, MMRCA, T-50 etc working closely with other assets. What a multi-role fighter must also conduct a plethora of other strike, and ISR missions and do so repeatedly. Here things like the mission-system capability, networked operations, PGM-delivery and PGM inventory (Type and quantity) matters as these things have been PROVEN to offer a competitive edge in terms of turning the equation from 'sorties per target to - targets per sorties'. You simply cannot focus on one mission since the aircraft being demanded has to have multi-role capability and this is where the quantity, capability, and choices available to an F-16 customer are exceptionally high and come from a host of nations that have over the years kept modernizing their weapons to support the platform.

Switching over to the Adv. Shornet, there is nothing stopping an end-user from going in with an EPE solution as opposed to an EDE solution and gaining significant performance improvement in acceleration that comes from a 20% increase in thrust without a corresponding increase in weight. You can shed the CFT's and carry bags on air-air missions. However, as stated earlier the Rhino comes with a more than decade worth of enhancements in things like sensor-fusion, computing and developing new waveforms to enhance multi-ship Situational Awareness. And this compares to a baseline, that started with a clean sheet AESA radar and Next Generation processors. One can obviously ignore these advantages as others have done and suggest AESA radars are overrated and an 'OEM's are pushing them down operators throats (despite no evidence to support it), and that everyone has the same level of 'sensor-fusion' but that would be contrary to facts and realities on the ground.

The Mig-35 offers a lot of enhancements over the Mig-29K but its still early days and the first operational aircraft has not even delivered to its first customer. We KNOW from the recent history that mission system upgrades, enhancements, and maturation is the single largest cost/investment driver in modern combat aircraft (Having gone through the development of the LCA and being in the design phase of the AMCA, those that follow these programs closely would vouch for that) and this wil remain true for decades given how fast technology is maturing, particularly in computing, semi-conductors, the resultants benefits in radars, communication, Electronic Warfare, and survivability enhancement. Given that is the case, someone would need to take control of the Mig-35 over the next couple of decades to make sure it is up to the task when it comes to the sort of threats the IAF is likely to go up against. In case of the Rhino, the USN has it and will continue to have it as its most numerous fighter till well beyond 2030, and to add the air-air threat faced by the USN is from Chinese advanced fourth, 4.5 and 5th generation aircraft. Hence the roadmap for the SH enhancements, and why they have been constantly investing in the program to keep it relevant and at pace to stay up to date. In addition to EXISTING INVESTMENTS to make the Super Hornet significantly more effective for the 2020's, there are plenty of things lined up for the program going forward. Even if one disregards the significant lead in system-integration, maturity and capability of the block III+ Rhino to the Mig-29/35 the institutional support of the USN alone should give any perspective customer high confidence in the fact that their product would be enhanced (at someone else's R&D expense) to keep pace with the threat.

All the changes that make a Super Hornet an Advanced Hornet are available as kits to be upgraded at the depot level except the new cockpit which may be a totally non issue (from a risk perspective) if the rumors of the Saudi's adopting it for their F-15SA's are to be believed. Boeing's Wide Panel Display's were to leverage a common investment on the Adv./Int. Shornet as on the Silent Eagle.
even Western evaluatior of legacy 29s found them better dogfighters than F-16s
Contrary positions also exist, and have been provided to you that you have ignored. I have in the past pointed you to a pilot that has flown both against each other (flown the mig-29 vs the F-16 and Vice Versa). Air-Combat is a complicated thing and is not just one feature. A JHMCSII + 9XBlkII/ASRAAM kitted Rhino is as good as any when it comes to dogfight - survivability and it all comes down to TTP's and support. It won't be F-18 vs J-10 or J-20 alone and if you get into that then you are taking an approach that is completely dissociated with the reality of modern air-combat. Simple things such as being able to strike pin point targets from 300 km, has immense implications even in air-superiority especially if you have an inventory to support long range percission targeting even from stand-off ranges of say 60-100 km. SDBI, SDBII, JDAM-ER all allow for this, and this ability for TacAir assets to carry out strikes from such ranges without the expense of missiles has some serious force-structure implications for an opponent trying to maintain air-superiority over a theater. This is before I bring in things like JSOW-C, JASSM, JSM, and even AARGM.
brar_w...always a pleasure to read your posts. very well informed and very logical thought process. I think you, KaranM, tsarkar, deejay et. al. really raise the quality of discussion on this forum.

Having said that, it would be great if someone had a correspondingly well informed viewpoint on Russian/European aircraft. Every OEM has some innovations and game-changers to his credit.

When it comes to defending India, all emotions should be cast aside. If we need 300+ aircraft that can deliver munitions for a certain $$$ cost basis, there are trade offs against the following:
(1) technological sophistication...Khan rules
(2) availability during war...Russia/EU rules
(3) availability during training/peacetime...Khan/EU rules

If the objective is a short sharp war, then Khan isn't a bad option. Of course this assumes that we are politically aligned with them during peacetime so that a steady flow of spares is guaranteed. If you want space for political maneuvering during peacetime then the high dollar French are the choice (with high availability and smooth supply-chain) OR the low dollar Russians (with low availability and supply-chain headaches). If we are in a long drawn out war OR want complete political independence then Tejas with Kaveri is the only option irrespective of how shoddy the manufacturing and avionics and engine are.

After all the Soviets never dared invade China once they had nukes and 3000+ crappy F-6/A-5 aircraft
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Cain Marko »

NRao wrote:
And, I'll take the new fulcrum which has an even better twr than the original, over the fat viper any day..
Multiple points.

Is the new Fulcrum even there? It was expected to *start* tests at the end of this year - at the earliest.

Latest stuff is about "networks". I mean data intense stuff. That is what the US relies on because of their expeditionary nature. Russians have no such need and consequently are not as mature. IAF has leaned towards the US model. Just the way things are.

IAF comments on the 29 are really old. The popular belief is that the IAF advised the Russians not to participate in the MMRCA competition. ?????

Irrespective of what we think Russia has been tagged as an energy resource. Long before all this. ?????

IN has been having problems with their 29s.

I would think the FGFA is a better alternative if they can find a solution to a problem that we do not about.
Is the fulcrum there yet? If the iaf wants it to be. Sure. Problem with solagh is not so different, in some ways worse...the viper seems like it has been yet...and will continue to be in the same spot for some time. In both cases iaf will take up the burden, difference is isf will get a lot more access with the fulcrum.

For all the networking the American platforms are capable of ultimately, any network is only as strong as it's weakest link...the basics don't change...It will come down to functioning on the iaf odl and other assets, can't see why fulcrum can't do this. Perhaps the viper can do it a bit better..

But yes, I agree that the fulcrum is out of the picture, pity really, esp. For fans like me.

I've been advocating the shornet quite a bit lately, heh. Never thought I'd see the day, but the epe and commonality factor really did it for me. Not to mention the USNs commitment to it for the next 15-20 years
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

^ Brarji, the fat bit hit a nerve did it?

Not really, since the F-16, outside of the Mig-35 was my least favorite aircraft on the MMRCA. The point I was trying to make was that the F-16 Block 60 is FAT because there is considerable tactical advantage of using a single engine fighter, armed to the teeth and with enough fuel to execute a mission that would have otherwise required multiple IFR’s, or a much larger, heavier, costly aircraft. When your task is to go out and hunt SCUDS, or kit an aircraft for predominantly a2g work, it hardly matters how heavy you are, or how ‘fat’ you are since you are for the mission trading that away for a clear tactical advantage elsewhere. The Israelis do this as well.

Lets now look at a hypothetical scenario where the UAE would have had a threat that posed considerable air-superiority challenges. They would have simply invested in a more a2a optimized F-16 block 60 which in this case would have meant no CFT's, EFT's and more IFR assets. The Mission system suite already supported advanced air-air work, be it AESA radar, IRST, digital EW suite etc. Perhaps they could have added TVC which was available and proven on the F-16 as the F-16 evolved to meet their (Hypothetical) needs. My point is that as technology advances at a rapid pace, mission system upgrades will continue to drive modernization cost and here the value of having mature mission systems that are tried and tested is a clear and undisputable advantage. The block 60 gets that right. The rest was a high paying customer paying for things it valued given its threat.

Plus, I have myself called the Modern Viper FAT on many occasions :)
Which af is going to use the bird in decades to come so as to create a viable upgrade path? How much is the usaf invested in this?
This is the main thing going AGAINST the upgraded F-16. The USAF has all but washed its hands off some of the more challenging upgrades they had earlier planned for their Vipers. At best they will get a drop-in AESA without the enhanced software that they had earlier set aside as a major build. Same goes for the GaN EW suite which now, goes only on the F-15C and E (Even though phalcon edge is very capable the USAF had earlier planned something better).

This could also be said about the Mig-35. The RuAF hasn't acquired any. Algeria and Egypt are hardly the type of customers that would ensure a pipeline of well funded 'china-centric' enhancements similar to what the USN has done, and plans to do on the Rhino going forward.
Frankly, one area where the Russian birds handily best most western birds, and I think the gripen is the sole exception here, is on price, and this includes lcc imho.
There is no firm indication of what a Gripen E costs since its under-development. The F-18E/F cost however compares quite favourably to the Gripen C+ costs given the economies of scale of the former even though the latter would most definitely cost less to operate over its lifetime (with less capability too one might add)/ Furthermore, there is no LCC analysis that I have come across on Russian twins be it the fulcrum or the Flanker. Do keep in mind however, that the USAF published CPFH figures includes a manpower component that is irrelevant for India. Since there is practically no utility in dissociating system-unique manpower component from overall CPFH given the need to calculate CPFH in the first place (Auditors, and Acquisition folks are interested in the cost impact of a weapons system not comparing one nation's flying cost to another's) the best way to gauge the 'true' manpower-separated cost of US fixed and rotary wing aircraft is to look at the annual reimbursement rates for various agencies looking to tap into these aircraft . These are the closest you would get to fuel, consumable and bare-bone manpower cost as possible. For the Viper its between $8-9k per hour a good 50%-60% lower than the heavies. The only western fighter that would come in cheper would be the Gripen C since its more modern and has a less powerful engine. That should be in the $6-$7K range.

There exists nothing comparable that I have come across on the LCC component on the latest Mig's. Cost of upgrades, and cost of R&D to support modernization has also to be factored in. Here the Super Hornet has a host of enhancements funded, or that will be funded by the USN that shares the same threat in the Chinese context. Do keep in mind that acquisition cost usually counts for a 1/3 of the LCC, and even less if you have to pay for cutting edge R&D to upgrade a particular system as opposed to piggy backing on someone else's R&D pipeline.
For all the networking the American platforms are capable of ultimately, any network is only as strong as it's weakest link...the basics don't change...It will come down to functioning on the iaf odl and other assets, can't see why fulcrum can't do this. Perhaps the viper can do it a bit better..
Most modern aircraft are capable of a diverse CNI suite with multiple waveforms, both platform-platform/weapon specific and large-force integration specific. The networking the F-18E/F's demonstrated in 2014 and 2015 for example, was separate and an added layer on top of the standard NATO Link-16 and allowed them to do things the L16 backend could not support. In fact think ADL as F-35 MADL-Lite minus the range limitations that accompany an LPI/LPD system.
Last edited by brar_w on 15 Apr 2016 01:58, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by GeorgeWelch »

titash wrote:When it comes to defending India, all emotions should be cast aside. If we need 300+ aircraft that can deliver munitions for a certain $$$ cost basis, there are trade offs against the following:
(1) technological sophistication...Khan rules
(2) availability during war...Russia/EU rules
(3) availability during training/peacetime...Khan/EU rules

If the objective is a short sharp war, then Khan isn't a bad option.
As Russia draws closer and closer to China, I'm not sure it's reasonable to expect them to continue to ship arms during a conflict between India and China.

They'll probably claim to be 'neutral' by shutting off arms sales to both sides, but such a move will hurt India far far more than it hurts China.

Assuming the US will automatically sanction during a war is quite naive. If strategic interests coincide, there's no better friend to have in a war than the US.

Their support of the UK during the Falklands and Israel during the Yom Kippur War (Operation Nickel Grass) was quite impressive.

India's worst case scenario involves an invasion by China. In such a situation the US is likely to strongly support India.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by Gyan »

Issue a reverse tender inviting proposals from Indian Companies to manufacture and provide 30 year spare part support for 100 LCA MK-2 starting from USD 15 Billion. Then we can convert Make in India to reality from a slogan.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by titash »

Gyan wrote:Issue a reverse tender inviting proposals from Indian Companies to manufacture and provide 30 year spare part support for 100 LCA MK-2 starting from USD 15 Billion. Then we can convert Make in India to reality from a slogan.
The engine (again) is the crux of the matter. Desi OEMs cannot manufacture or support IP-protected spares for the GE 404. Radars/AAMs can be more easily replaced.

One wonders how the Iranians supported a large fleet of F-4s and F-14s during the revolutionary years (3 decades mind you!!)...specially the F-14s because no-one else flies that stuff. Did they (1) manufacture local spares and severely compromise on MTBF or (2) reduce stress by voluntarily shrinking their performance envelope / lowering their usage red-lines or (3) beg/borrow/steal OEM parts?

Looks like we need to hire them Iranians program managers to make the LCA a success...
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by brar_w »

The engine (again) is the crux of the matter. Desi OEMs cannot manufacture or support IP-protected spares for the GE 404. Radars/AAMs can be more easily replaced
If the demand gets high enough it could allow GE to partner with a domestic OEM to make some of the parts in India. Again, volume matters so I think if the LCA-N, MK2 and AMCA share an engine there is a good possibility of such a deal being struck, even if its not for all components.
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by NRao »

India’s Geo Political Compulsions Will Play A Major Role In IAF’s Jet Deal
s India identifies the next supplier to IAF, the aircraft deal has become the mother of all deals. The eventual supplier will not only enhance its influence but also reap rich financial rewards. In terms of number of aircraft, this is perhaps the single largest contract ever. India is spoilt for choices. Who is who of the major combat jet manufacturers are lining up to sell jets to India. Americans, a UK-German European consortium, French, Swedes, and Russians are all working hard to woo the Indian government.
However for India it will be a thin line between creating indigenous capability and new dependency on a foreign supplier. Combat aircraft selection starts with foreign policy. Only friendly and reliable countries are selected as eventual suppliers, and even after negotiations and aircraft delivery the job is not done. The combat jet deal ends with foreign policy. The country’s foreign office has the explicit task of remaining in the good graces of the supplier. The supplying country controls the parts supply and with exercising a quasi-veto over the country’s war making ability, greatly enhancing the selling country’s prestige and influence. For a buying country it’s a dependence on another country. No wonder fighter jet deals are often more about geo politics than pure commerce. Decisions by Indian policy makers thus will not only impact the make-up of IAF but could also reshape foreign policy. Part of that change is visible. Continued decline of Russia at the global stage has caught up on a reluctant India. In a first, Russia lost out in the last aircraft MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) tender, despite the lowest bid.
Never before have the Russians not been awarded the biggest IAF contracts. Although India purchased British and French jets in the past these were small numbers. The core of the IAF are Russian jets. First time in four decades the Indian Air Force will see a non-Russian jet alongside forming the backbone of the fighter strength. India’s ties with Russia will remain strategic as substantial defense hardware will continue to be Russian for a very long. However, Russia’s monopoly in the Indian skies has undoubtedly ended. Who is replacing Russia? In the fray are the Americans, the UK and German led consortium, the French and the Swedes.
Not only are the hardware offered by each very different, so are the political and strategic ramifications. From India’s vantage point, the Swedish offer is predominantly commercial being the weakest country in terms of political and strategic value. Sweden is not a permanent member of the UN Security Council neither an economic heavyweight. Gripen jets are powered by GE engines thus not free of the sanction-prone impulses of Americans.
A partnership with Sweden will bring India little at the UNSC or other international fora. To make the Swedish offer compelling, there needs to be substantial compensation elsewhere. Like a generous offer with complete technology transfer and unprecedented buildup of Indian aviation industry. Given SAAB has declared a desire to become an Indian company, one assumes Swedes are fully aware of their options. The French Rafael offer and the UK-German led consortium with Eurofighter are better positioned as UNSC members and economic heavy weights. These countries place commercial interest’s almost equally with international politics which adds to the reliability of the historically dependable relationship. As a consequence the offers are less generous. Failing one of the key Indian criteria of development of an Indian industry. The French have already dragged their feet on producing in India or transferring significant technology.
The UK and Germany offer nothing very different. If any of these were the eventual winners, the Indian aviation industry will remain underdeveloped. The Americans are offering the greatest amount of technology transfer and manufacturing in India with either the F18 or the F16. India will achieve a longstanding goal of enhancing its ability to design combat jets and develop an indigenous manufacturing capability. The Americans seem to have the best offer and the winning hand. However this is not all. There cannot be the slightest doubt that American defense sales are just commercial. These sales are an in veritable part of American geopolitical strategy, and deals have clear political objectives. The subsequent supply of spare parts is brazenly a bona fide instrument of continued control. India developed Tejas aircraft already depends on GE engines. Selecting another American jet will dramatically reroute IAF’s lifeline from Washington effectively giving Americans a veto. Given the sanction-prone history of relations, Uncle Sam is seen as unreliable in India and is facing political opposition. This is unchartered territory which no Indian government has ever dared to navigate.
The cold math of real politics rather than platitudes should drive the future. One mitigating argument against unreliability of American policy is China. China is increasingly asserting itself as a rival to US power in Asia and beyond which is a common concern for both countries. The US needs a military counterweight, and India simply needs to upgrade to not get overwhelmed by China. After investing trillions in China over the decades, the US needs newer investment destinations. The IAF deal with jets manufactured in India not only meets but jumpstarts all the above objectives in one stroke. This is where the objectives of the two countries appear to align for the long term. It is this long term alignment of objectives that argues for reliability of American policy with India. However, while China’s emergence as an economic powerhouse is a foregone conclusion, the future of the US-China relationship is not. While Chinese dispute islands and borders, they are not exporting ideology and changing regimes.
Unlike the Soviet Union, the US is not containing China either. US continues to be one of the largest foreign investors and trading partner of China. McDonalds and KFCs dot the landscapes of Chinese cities. Early in his first term President Obama did announce an exclusive G2 club with China leaving out all other powers in the cold.
Both countries benefit from globalization and a capitalist economy. Chinese form the largest contingent of foreign students in American universities. Both countries cooperate on climate change, Iran, and North Korea. All this hardly qualifies as rivalry, at least not a black and white one. With mature leadership they can be less than rivals or keep oscillating between competition and cooperation.
America’s economic interests with China are significant and several times bigger than with India. Despite best intentions there can be no guarantee that geo political expediency will not force Americans to engage with China at the expense of India. In face of such facts, constructing India-US security cooperation on assumptions of US-China rivalry would be akin to building on shifting sand. Indian reservations on becoming a de facto American pawn in the revolving US-Chinese relationship have merit. How does India solve the dilemma of having US fighter jets without becoming a tool between America and China? Technology transfer for the jets to be manufactured in India is the answer.
Technology transfer and manufacturing in India limits ongoing dependence on US for spare parts. Anything less than building genuine India capability will be a one sided deal that increases American leverage over China but leaves India vulnerable to the much more dynamic US-Chinese relationship. Technology transfer would signal a commitment towards building India as a balancing power in Asia. It would generate confidence that India – US defense cooperation could be insulated from succumbing to short term US interests in China. Indian policy makers will do well to see the opportunity, while avoiding the traps and deliver a deal that will increase indigenous capability rather than increase countries’ dependency.
ramana
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by ramana »

Who wrote the above blog? Would be nice to include in future/

Makes lots of remarks and pitches for US and brings up China bogey.
svinayak
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Post by svinayak »

China! China! China!

Why India need to buy X-xx planes from another country - Because of China
Why India need to sign the SLA - because of China
Why India need to patrol the seas with another country - because of China.

It is all about China which makes India take action. What about Indian needs!
Will India's border problem be solved with this.- Nobody can answer
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