Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 31 Jan 2004

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 03 Feb 2004 03:03

I was just trying to look back and see how much of psy ops went against India, ( the guy was referring Gen Zinni whos was a great freind of Mushy). How dumb can the SA experts pundits and SD consultants can be.

If you think I should remove that and this post shall gladly do so.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 03 Feb 2004 03:47

I still don't understad why musharaff has targetted xerox khan. He is being made the scape goat.

I note that xerox was retired (forcefully?) after musharaff came to power. Is there some bad blood between the two?

Musharaff is really playing to the American tune now. I wonder what threat they must have given him. Perhaps they threatened to restore democracy in Pak or something.

Kanu · Post by **Kanu** » 03 Feb 2004 04:06

On a long enough time line every tin pot dictator's time runs out. I think it was Beg was on the BBC last nite in Asia Today, he basically said the Pakistani people don't care about the allegations levelled against Khan and the nuke programme by the West and the Govt. Yet that safe measures were being put into to place to secure any future discrepencies.

Basically it was a bit of very well covered reasonable sounding little speech on TV. There were bits that sniped at Musharraf a bit, about the public not supporting the treatment of the scientists.

Did anyone else catch this?

James Bund · Post by **James Bund** » 03 Feb 2004 04:11

If you think I should remove that and this post shall gladly do so.

That was rhetorical, there are of course no correct answers, only opinions; and mine was directed more to the Pak lurkers than you.

Ramanujan · Post by **Ramanujan** » 03 Feb 2004 04:38

Things would start making sense if USN announces some joint exercises with IN in the Arabian sea...a carrier group in Arabian sea would make Musharaff cooperate with new-found vigor

Any official statements from chinese wrt to these nicely revealed paki-exploits? This could be the last straw and the dragon may finally decide that its time to jetison the 'all weather' friendship with slumistan.

Rak · Post by **Rak** » 03 Feb 2004 04:43

Have all the "Pakistani scientists" been debriefed ? Did all of their wardrobe malfunction okay, i just wanted to use that phrase ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Feb 2004 04:44

kgoan, where does all this TSP de-briefing/de-constructing fit into the Monkey Trap? and the greater Gorilla Trap?

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 04:53

‘Probe narrows down to Dr.Queer, six others

Dr Qadeer has reportedly given to his daughter a cassette of his interview about the ongoing storm regarding the nuclear technology transfer to Iran and Libya, who went abroad a few weeks back. In that cassette, he has defended himself and levelled charges against certain persons. Some senior government officials have been trying to persuade Dr Qadeer to get back the cassette as they think it might damage the country if it fell into the hands of the anti-Pakistan lobby. His daughter wants to defend the father abroad.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 03 Feb 2004 05:10

Pakistan scientist in nuclear confession
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/story.jsp?story=487288

The revelation could lead to Pakistan becoming part of the United States's independent investigation into intelligence failures before the Iraq war. President George Bush said the inquiry would have a broader mandate than Iraq. "We also want to look at our war against proliferation and weapons of mass destruction in a broader context," Mr Bush said.

FBI agents were reportedly present at some of the confessions made by Dr Khan.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 03 Feb 2004 05:11

While this is from comedy station:

Pakistan Humiliates Father of its Nuclear Program :whine:

http://www.paknews.com/editorials.php?id=1&date1=2004-02-03

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 03 Feb 2004 05:24

Originally posted by Neshant Sajen:
I note that xerox was retired (forcefully?) after musharaff came to power. Is there some bad blood between the two?

I believe this happened after Powell presented to Musharraf, evidence of AXK's dealings with North Korea and asked for him to be arrested. Mushy resisted that demand but moved Khan to a ceremonial post. There doesn't seem to have been bad blood between them prior to that.

Vivek_A · Post by **Vivek_A** » 03 Feb 2004 05:31

Originally posted by Rak:
Have all the "Pakistani scientists" been debriefed ?

now that they've been debriefed, they'll have to go commando style. (you won't get this if you don't watch friends )

Raj Singh · Post by **Raj Singh** » 03 Feb 2004 06:26

Quote:

Among others, Libya reportedly bankrolled Pakistan and may even have supplied raw uranium. After Pakistan`s nuclear tests six years ago, the Saudi government gave an unannounced gift of $4 billion worth of oil spread over five years to tide Pakistan over during its difficulties caused by international sanctions.

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 03 Feb 2004 06:47

Domestic (US) political considerations will benefit greatly from an exit in Afghanistan, and while we are focused on Osama as the ace, consider whether the Pakistanis are willing to give up the One Eyed Jack and whether this is a good enough win to assure success in November. Perhaps they will lay the Jack down in October (following the March/October schedule for major successes in Pakistan).

Also, re: Shezshad. Isn't it interesting that AQK made 40 foreign trips in the last 2 years, when all the transfer occurred in the 80s? Perhaps his foreign visits in the last 2 years (after 9/11) were all for the benefit of Al Qaeda - which is the real reason he is being hung out to dry.

parsuram · Post by **parsuram** » 03 Feb 2004 07:03

I will bring up this salient point once more. North Korea, Iran and Libya - all three Voluntarily disclosed their nuclear weapons development programs and went on to point to the pakis as the source of proliferation. These are fairly anti American States. What would make them come forward in such a short period of time to do this. I do not consider it due to shock & awe from Iraq. The US, by its own admissions, was surprised (could be contrived, but why bother, if the US was instrumental in obtaining disclosures). The PRC, imo, is a prime candidate in causing these developments. They have the necessary clout in all three countries. This bomblets proliferation was their strategic baby all along, with pakis as side kick Pancho Vila. Imo, PRC has decided to back off and reassess their policy. Xerox Khan just used it for personal gain peddling dud stuff (no doubt gave PRC guys a bad rep. in the process, and the PRC had to be aware of his & pakis little Nukes R Us enterprise.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 03 Feb 2004 07:08

Originally posted by parsuram:
The PRC, imo, is a prime candidate in causing these developments. They have the necessary clout in all three countries. This bomblets proliferation was their strategic baby all along, with pakis as side kick Pancho Vila.

PRC's scheme was simple yet completely deniable. Proliferate nukes to pak, and have then do some secondary proliferation. Proliferate missiles to NK, and have them perform missile proliferation. Have pak and NK exchange capabilities, and now you have two more nations capable to produce nuke-mounted missiles. PRC is in the clear and cannot be fingered because it has US by the nuts with some hardcore economic engagement (As the US has on China). Status quo prevails for a few decades, during which time US is fighting various nuke-empowered enemies, while china works on consolidating its economy.

Then, one of their client states tries to play them by cuddling up with the GOTUS a little too close. Maybe details uncomfortable to PRC might come out and PRC would lose control of the situation. China informs the clients of the secondary proliferator that they had been conned out of billions for a dud. Sounds at least partly plausible.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Feb 2004 07:45

Originally posted by parsuram:
I will bring up this salient point once more. North Korea, Iran and Libya - all three Voluntarily disclosed their nuclear weapons development programs and went on to point to the pakis as the source of proliferation. These are fairly anti American States. What would make them come forward in such a short period of time to do this. I do not consider it due to shock & awe from Iraq..

Parsuram - while I would not totally discount your "PRC" factor - I think shiock and awe certainly did help.

Why?

Because I believe that none of these nations were anywhere near building a bomb. They had obtained stolen centrifuge tech from Pakland - but those damn centrifuges have to be made and they have to be made by the thousand and they need to work and then the U235 harvested and then the U235 shaoed with other componenets to make a workable bomb.

K Subrahmanyam speaks of his conversation with Abdus Salam and says that even Pakistan did not have teh "critical mass" of scientific manpower to do it - so where does that leave Korea/Libya etc?

Libya is aBIG THING. Arabs have great pride. Taking a "steb back" with the great satan speaks volumes for the amount of "rationality of thought" that has been instilled in various minds (Gaddafi, Mushy and others) by shakinah. Shakinah works just that much better when you are actually nook-nood and are only pretending. The potential costs of pretence were too high for PRK and Libya. Pakistan now needd to see the cost of H&D + Pretence.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 08:02

rtsp://video.c-span.org/archive/ter/ter_wj013104_qazi.rm

Above is the link of Ashraf "Mir Kasi" Qazi on C-Span last Saturday answering questions on Paki nuclear proliferation.

Fast forward to 16 minutes for a question by someone familiar

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 03 Feb 2004 08:11

Folks>> Remember

"Of all the hunting expeditions, the easiest is to find a SCAPE GOAT"

A Xerox Khan is a small fry in this whole episode the ISI, the RAPE and TSP Army are hand in glove in this proliferation.
The use of PAF Hercules makes even Uncle accessory in this proliferation. After all Hercules transport planes have now been proven to be dual usage technology after all.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 08:21

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/03/international/asia/03STAN.html

Pakistanis Question Official Ignorance of Atom Transfers

By DAVID ROHDE

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Feb. 2 — Opposition parties, political and military experts and relatives of detained officials on Monday questioned Pakistan's assertion that the founder of the country's nuclear program had shared technology with Iran, Libya and North Korea for more than a decade without the knowledge of his superiors.

"This is a cock-and-bull story," said Dr. Muhammad Shafiq, 39, the son of a retired Pakistani army brigadier accused of taking part in the scheme. "If you want to believe it, believe it. The truth is nowhere near this story."

In a background briefing to 20 Pakistani journalists on Sunday night, a senior Pakistani official said that the scientist, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, had confessed to covertly sharing nuclear secrets with Iran, Libya and North Korea from 1989 to 2000. American officials said parts of the government's account matched events tracked by American intelligence and that nuclear aid from Pakistan had flowed to North Korea in 2002 and to Libya last fall.

The senior Pakistani official said Sunday that former army and intelligence chiefs had been questioned. Senior army officials were guilty of "omissions," he said, but did not take part in Dr. Khan's scheme.

Dr. Khan and his close relatives could not be reached for comment on Monday. A man who answered the telephone at Dr. Khan's home, now surrounded by security officials, said the scientist was not present. Dr. Shafiq, son of the detained brigadier said to have aided Dr. Khan, said he did not expect Dr. Khan's family to comment until the government announced whether it would prosecute.

Political and military experts predicted that Pakistan's leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, would not risk prosecuting Dr. Khan, until recently a national hero. A trial could provoke a public outcry, and Dr. Khan could publicly identify senior army officials who approved of his activities, the experts said. General Musharraf seized power in 1999, and the country's army is his core base of support.

A senior government official who spoke on condition of anonymity on Monday confirmed that Dr. Khan had signed a detailed confession several days ago, but he said no decision had been made on whether to charge the scientist. He said General Musharraf would make a "policy statement" to the nation early next week after the end of a series of Pakistani national holidays .

The senior official declined to give further details about what the government had said was a sprawling smuggling network that involved German and Dutch middlemen, chartered planes and covert meetings between Dr. Khan and Iranian and Libyan scientists. If the government account is true, Dr. Khan and the middlemen carried out one of the most complex schemes ever to evade international efforts to control nuclear weapons..

In a telephone interview on Monday, Zahid Malik, Dr. Khan's official biographer, said he had not spoken to the scientist for 10 days. Government officials ordered him on Sunday night to stop publicly commenting on the case, he said. "I cannot say anything categorical," he said when asked about the confession. "I have not met the gentleman I still have so much regard for."

Those who questioned the government's account said Monday that they were skeptical that Dr. Khan had acted without the approval of the country's powerful military leadership. Some suggested that Dr. Khan had agreed to confess to a version of events that put the army in a good light in exchange for a promise that the military-dominated government would not prosecute him.

On Sunday, the government also altered its descriptions of what motivated those who they said might have exported nuclear technology. Ten days ago, General Musharraf said "some individuals" had sold nuclear technology for personal gain. On Sunday, the senior official did not mention greed as a factor. Instead, he said Dr. Khan had transferred the technology to divert attention from Pakistan's nuclear program and to aid other Islamic countries.

Hasan Askari Rizvi, a leading military analyst, said it would have been possible for Dr. Khan and his aides to covertly divulge nuclear designs and the names of nuclear component suppliers with other countries without the military knowing.

But he said it would have been impossible to move equipment or parts out of the country's tightly guarded top nuclear facility, the Khan Research Laboratories, without the army's tacit support. Dr. Khan served as director of the laboratory, which is named for him, until 2001. "If hardware is moved out of the country, then the army is directly involved," Mr. Rizvi said.

The senior Pakistani official who briefed Pakistani journalists on Sunday said that centrifuge machines were shipped from Pakistan to North Korea and that centrifuge parts from Pakistan were shipped to Iran.

He said the head of security at the Khan Research Laboratories, Brig. Mohammed Iqbal Tajwar, took part in the scheme, allowing the nuclear hardware to be shipped. Relatives of the brigadier could not be reached for comment.

The account of events given by the senior government official on Sunday also raised questions about Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, the chief of the Pakistani Army from 1988 to 1991. The senior official said Dr. Khan had told investigators that General Beg urged him to share nuclear technology with Iran.

General Beg has acknowledged that in 1991 he proposed that Pakistan form a military alliance with Iran and Afghanistan to thwart what he thought was an impending American invasion of all three countries. But he said he never approved the transfer of nuclear technology.

"I would not be stupid enough to do such a thing," General Beg said in a telephone interview on Monday. "I know what my responsibility is."

General Beg said the security of the nuclear program had not been his responsibility. The nuclear laboratories were under the control of the president and the prime minister at the time, he said.

"K.R.L. was not under my command," General Beg said, referring to Khan Research Laboratories. "It was not my responsibility."

Some political and military experts accused General Beg of making false statements. They said the country's army has maintained tight control over the nuclear program since its inception in 1974. The army has ruled the country for most of its modern history.

"He is lying," said Ayesha Siddiqa, a defense analyst, referring to General Beg. "They are trying to protect a lot of names."

The senior government official also told journalists that Dr. Khan told investigators that a military adviser and close friend of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto also urged him to share nuclear technology with Iran. Both men are dead.

A spokesman for Mrs. Bhutto said that the allegations were false and that she had opposed the spread of nuclear weapons during her two terms in office.

The holiday week here made it difficult to determine the nature of political repercussions, although there was some initial response.

Spokesmen for the country's two main secular opposition political parties, Mrs. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, called for a parliamentary inquiry.

In a telephone interview, a spokesman for a coalition of hard-line Islamist political parties, the Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal, or United Action Front, called for Dr. Khan to be allowed to speak publicly. He also reiterated the coalition's call for a nationwide strike on Friday to protest the government's treatment of nuclear scientists.

Political and military analysts called for an independent inquiry by civilian experts. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a former senior American diplomat who served in Pakistan said he believed that successive Pakistani military and civilian leaders intentionally turned a blind eye to Dr. Khan's activities for more than a decade. He said the scientist produced things Pakistan needed — like ballistic missile technology from North Korea — and became such a powerful political figure in his own right that no one dared challenge him.

"It's like Iran-contra," the former diplomat said, referring to the Reagan administration scandal. "They didn't want to know. They needed the things he brought them."

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 08:30

Kamran Khan's report in Washington Post. Paki papers are out today due to Eid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6884-2004Feb2.html

Musharraf Named in Nuclear Probe 

Senior Pakistani Army Officers Were Aware of Technology Transfers, Scientist Says

By John Lancaster and Kamran Khan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; Page A13

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Feb. 2 -- Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has told investigators that he helped North Korea design and equip facilities for making weapons-grade uranium with the knowledge of senior military commanders, including Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president, according to a friend of Khan's and a senior Pakistani investigator.

Khan also has told investigators that Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, the Pakistani army chief of staff from 1988 to 1991, was aware of assistance Khan was providing to Iran's nuclear program and that two other army chiefs, in addition to Musharraf, knew and approved of his efforts on behalf of North Korea, the same individuals said Monday.

Khan's assertions of high-level army involvement came in the course of a two-month probe into allegations that he and other Pakistani nuclear scientists made millions of dollars from the sale of equipment and expertise to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

They contradict repeated contentions by Musharraf and other senior officials that Khan and at least one other scientist, Mohammed Farooq, acted out of greed and in violation of long-standing government policy that bars the export of nuclear weapons technology to any foreign country.

In conversations with investigators, Khan urged them to question the former army commanders and Musharraf, asserting that "no debriefing is complete unless you bring every one of them here and debrief us together," according to the friend, who has met with the accused scientist twice during the past two months.

On the basis of Khan's claims, Beg and another former army chief of staff, Gen. Jehangir Karamat, who occupied the post from 1996 to 1998, have been questioned by investigators in recent days, but both have denied any knowledge of the transactions, according to a senior Pakistani military officer who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Gen. Shaukat Sultan, Pakistan's chief military spokesman, declined to comment on the specifics of the allegations but asserted that "General Pervez Musharraf neither authorized such transfers nor was involved in any way with such deeds, even before he was president." Beg and Karamat could not be reached for comment Monday night.

Khan and other senior scientists and officials at the Khan Research Laboratories, the uranium-enrichment facility Khan founded in 1976, have been under investigation since November, when the International Atomic Energy Agency presented Pakistan with evidence that its centrifuge designs had turned up in Iran. The flamboyant European-trained metallurgist, who is 67, became a national hero in Pakistan after the country detonated its first nuclear device in 1998.

In a briefing for Pakistani journalists late Sunday night, a senior Pakistani military officer said that Khan had signed a 12-page confession on Friday in which he admitted to providing Iran, Libya and North Korea with technical assistance and components for making high-speed centrifuges used to produce enriched uranium, a key ingredient for a nuclear bomb.

Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, commander of Pakistan's Strategic Planning and Development Cell, described Khan as the mastermind of an elaborate and wholly unauthorized smuggling network involving chartered cargo flights, clandestine overseas meetings and a Malaysian factory that reconditioned centrifuge parts discarded from Pakistan's nuclear program for sale to foreign clients, according to a journalist who attended Kidwai's 21/2-hour briefing.

The technology transfers began in 1989 and were brokered by a network of middlemen, including three German businessmen and a Sri Lankan, identified only as Tahir, who is in custody in Malaysia, Kidwai told the journalists.

According to Kidwai's account, Khan told investigators that he supplied materials and assistance to Iran, Libya and North Korea not to make money but to deflect attention from Pakistan's nuclear program and -- in the case of Iran and Libya -- as a gesture of support to other Muslim countries.

The senior Pakistani investigator and a senior intelligence official said Monday that Khan also said he supplied Iran and Libya with surplus, outmoded equipment from the laboratory that he knew would not provide either country with any near-term capability to enrich uranium.

"Dr. Khan is basically contesting the merit of the nuclear proliferation charges," the investigator said. "Throughout his debriefing, Dr. Khan kept challenging the perception that material found from the Libyan or Iranian programs would allow them to enrich uranium."

Investigators contend that Khan accumulated millions of dollars in the course of a 30-year career as a government scientist, investing some of it in real estate in Pakistan and abroad. Kidwai told Pakistani journalists that investigators had reached no conclusions about the source of Khan's wealth, but he acknowledged that Khan's lavish lifestyle was "the worst-kept secret in town" and should have triggered suspicions among those responsible for protecting Pakistan's nuclear secrets, according to a journalist who attended the briefing.

Kidwai "admitted to oversight and intelligence failure," the journalist said.

Kidwai avoided any suggestion of complicity on the part of senior military commanders, including Musharraf, who has maintained throughout the investigation that any transfer of nuclear technology abroad was the work of individuals driven by greed.

By all accounts, Khan ran the laboratory at Kahuta, about 20 miles from Islamabad, with scant oversight from either civilian or military-led governments eager to achieve nuclear parity with arch-rival India.

The military was ultimately responsible for the facility, where security was overseen by two army brigadiers and a special detachment from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). And Khan is said to have insisted during his sessions with investigators that senior military commanders were well aware of his efforts to help other countries with their nuclear programs.

The senior Pakistani investigator said that Beg was "in the picture" regarding Khan's assistance to Iran, but said the former army chief of staff was "probably . . . under the impression that material and knowledge being transferred to Iran would not enable them to produced enriched uranium" because of Khan's claim that he was withholding top-of-the-line equipment. Investigators have found evidence that Khan informed Beg of the transfer of outdated hardware from his laboratory to Iran in early 1991, the official said.

Khan told two generals who jointly questioned him last month that three army chiefs of staff, including Musharraf, had known of his dealings with North Korea, according to the friend of the scientist. "Throughout his debriefing, Dr. Khan kept asking the generals why he was not being asked specific questions about the material he passed on to the North Koreans," the friend said.

U.S. officials have long suspected that Pakistan supplied uranium enrichment technology to North Korea in exchange for help with its ballistic missile program, and that Khan acted as the principal agent of the arrangement. After stating in 2002 that it had a program for enriching uranium for use in weapons, North Korea more recently has denied it.

A retired Pakistani army corps commander said Monday that the barter arrangement dates to December 1994, when then-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto traveled to North Korea at the request of Gen. Abdul Waheed, the army chief of staff at the time. A few months later, Khan led a delegation of scientists and military officers to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, according to the retired general and a senior active duty officer, both of whom spoke on condition of anonymity. Musharraf was serving at the time as Waheed's director general for military operations.

In January 1996, Waheed was replaced as chief of staff by Karamat, who secretly visited North Korea in December 1997, according to the retired corps commander. Four months after the trip, in April 1998, Karamat presided over the successful test-firing of a medium-range missile the Pakistanis called a Ghauri. According to U.S. intelligence officials and a former Pakistani nuclear scientist, the Ghauri was simply a renamed North Korean-supplied Nodong missile. Pakistani officials maintain publicly that the Ghauri missile is indigenous to Pakistan.

The senior investigator said Khan claimed that Karamat was privy to the details of the barter arrangement through which Pakistan received the missile, and that Khan had insisted that Karamat's role also be examined.

Khan also has asserted that Musharraf had to have been aware of the agreement with North Korea because Musharraf took over responsibility for the Ghauri missile program when he became army chief of staff in October 1998, according to the scientist's friend and the senior investigator.

According to Kidwai's account to journalists, senior military commanders did not get wind of Khan's nuclear dealings with North Korea until 2000, when the ISI conducted a raid on an aircraft that the laboratory had chartered for a planned flight to North Korea. Although a search of the aircraft turned up no evidence, authorities were sufficiently concerned that they warned Khan against pursuing any clandestine trade with North Korea, Kidwai told the journalists.

That concern deepened, according to Kidwai's account, after U.S. officials in 2002 and early 2003 presented evidence that Pakistani nuclear technology may indeed have found its way to North Korea.

Rak · Post by **Rak** » 03 Feb 2004 08:32

On a lighter side, this is what happens. The scientists are convened. They are briefed, then given an atomic wedgie and then they are de-briefed. Before this ceremony, they are given a chance to prepare video confessions to be shipped by Fedex to London to their closest relatives.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 03 Feb 2004 08:35

Is it only me who has a feeling that Mushy is soon gonna be history? The question is whether he will take TSP down with him or not.

A Q (Al Qaeda) Khan would have kept a big dossier about the TFTA somewhere safe (would, for instance, details of the ISI $100000 cheque to Mohammed Atta or Osama Bin Laden's dinner at Mushy's army house be juicy enough?). He is a thief and like most thiefs, he is not stupid. I am certain he would not have trusted the army generals and would have kept his safety shield ready. He is not going to be touched - nothing of any substance will be done to the scapegoat. The best the TFTA can hope for is that they make him disappear from public sight for some time (like Omar Sheikh). Even that is unlikely to be the end of the story.

The 'tactically brilliant' TFTA have struck a nice home goal once again. Time to get out the beer and the popcorn and watch the superbowl.

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 03 Feb 2004 08:43

I am starting to enjoy after a long time my black label with soda and ice. The last time I enjoyed my drink was in 1998 May POK -II.

So now this looks like a single wicket tournament, in which Mushy is now batting (only) 3 overs left, Mirza Beg is bowling his last 3 overs.

All this is happening while Atalji's chelas have opened a Concessions (those of who are not used to american languge Concessions also means refreshments, apart from the Indian usage) stand ready to talk business about Kashmir.

Aab bahoot maza aa gaya. Meanwhile Unkil is like steve becknor raising his finger once in a while.

parsuram · Post by **parsuram** » 03 Feb 2004 08:50

Shiv:

My point is to call attention to Chinese complicity/orchestration in all this. As Rye points out, it is generally conceded that the PRC has been the moving spirit & force behind a deliberate proliferation strategy to hamstring the US/West/Japan/India etc. via dumb nuke armed proxies like the pakis, NKorea etc. To me it points to the Chinese not having the necessary intestinal fortitude to carry through their strategy once the going got tough & turbulent (Afghan & more so the Iraq war offensives by the US). Arguably, the shockenaw affected them at least as much as the dumb proliferatees. The Chinese had about the same level of response after their embassy was deliberately bombed by the US in Serbia. Nevertheless, I do believe the PRC has equally descrete (as their proliferation initiative) and long term strategic operations in the middle east, Africa and Asia. Trouble in this instance was that their lackeys the pakis had more ba11s than them (and far less brains, to state the obvious).

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 08:51

Looks like the Pakis are throwing a chaddy party like the Toga parties here. Only difference is each one is removing others chaddy but in the end everyone is 'de-briefed'

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 03 Feb 2004 08:51

Folks>> Another angle that needs to be neatly tied up is the MI 5, break in into London Paki High commisioners office sometime back must have given a lot of info

Time for BRF article even if it is fiction, will be of immense pleasure to read while sipping Black Label or say Famous Grouse on rocks and soda?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 03 Feb 2004 08:52

TFTA=?
I forgot
Can somebody tell me'

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 03 Feb 2004 08:57

MI OH IL IN folks>> if Mushy goes with in 2 months from now, I will sponsor Black Label party with Khana in AA.
Any takers?

Rak · Post by **Rak** » 03 Feb 2004 08:59

Originally posted by Rangudu:
Looks like the Pakis are throwing a chaddy party like the Toga parties here. Only difference is each one is removing others chaddy but in the end everyone is 'de-briefed'

Reminds me of the Clydesdale Donkey (ad) which sang like a Cannary, during the superbowl yesterday. What has happened to Honor & Dignity onlee ?

parsuram · Post by **parsuram** » 03 Feb 2004 08:59

Originally posted by John Umrao:
MI OH IL folks>> if Mushy goes with in 2 months from now, I will sponsor Black Label party with Khana in AA.
Any takers?

No IN?

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 09:00

Acharya, Tall Fair Tight A$$ed

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 09:20

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-paknukes3feb03,1,1265066.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Pakistan Caught in Web of Evidence

By Douglas Frantz, Paul Watson and Mubashir Zaidi
Times Staff Writers

8:19 PM PST, February 2, 2004

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistan's admission that the father of its atomic bomb orchestrated illegal sales of nuclear weapons technology to three countries came in response to intense pressure from the United States and the United Nations.

After years of official denial, the Pakistanis said Abdul Qadeer Khan, a revered 66-year-old scientist, and his associates spread the designs and technology to produce fuel for nuclear weapons to Iran, North Korea and Libya.

But the government left a central question unanswered: Was the country's powerful military involved in selling the nation's nuclear secrets?

U.S. officials, nuclear experts and a former prime minister of Pakistan expressed doubts Monday about how Khan and a handful of associates could have circumvented the extraordinary controls on the country's nuclear technology without the military's blessings.

Benazir Bhutto, who served twice as prime minister before going into exile in the face of corruption charges, said she doubted that the transfers could have taken place without the knowledge of senior military officials.

"It is difficult to accept that the scientists could have violated government policy on their own," she told the Los Angeles Times. "Those who violated the policy are now hiding behind the scientists."

Bhutto said she had no knowledge that Pakistan's nuclear enclave had been breached when she was in office.

But Khan told authorities that he started transferring technology to Iran in 1989 and Pakistani newspapers have reported that Gen. Aslam Beg, the commander of the armed forces at the time, approved the deal.

The revelations by Pakistani officials came only after evidence uncovered by international inspectors and U.S. officials pointed conclusively at Pakistan's role in helping the nuclear programs of Iran and Libya.

Among other evidence, inspectors discovered blueprints linked to Khan in both countries and entire centrifuge assemblies in Libya that appear to have been shipped directly from Pakistan, according to diplomats familiar with the international inquiry.

Iranian officials also told the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. watchdog agency, that Pakistani scientists had introduced them to a private proliferation network that stretched from Germany to Malaysia, the diplomats said.

The flow of new information and U.S. pressure forced President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan to open an investigation that led to Sunday's disclosure that Khan had confessed to sharing nuclear secrets with the three countries.

Khan signed a 12-page confession in which he admitted providing designs and components for centrifuges to the three countries, a senior Pakistani official told local reporters in Islamabad. Centrifuges are used to purify uranium for fuel that can be used in reactors or atomic bombs.

The official said Khan claimed he was motivated by a desire to ease Western pressure on Pakistan's nuclear weapons program and to spread the ultimate weapon to other Muslim countries.

In Washington, a State Department official said the United States is eager to learn whether Khan's proliferation network reached to the senior members of the military who have long controlled the country's nuclear program. He said there are concerns Musharraf may not push for a thorough investigation, fearing that he could arouse new threats to his leadership. Musharraf is a general who was installed as president by the military in a bloodless coup in October 1999. After two recent assassination attempts, he is guarded by private American security officers but depends on the loyalty of other military officers for his ultimate safety.

Khan is under house arrest in Islamabad and has been unable to speak to the press.

Family members of nuclear scientists being detained for questioning accused the government of using them as scapegoats in response to U.S. pressure.

One of those in custody is Mohamed Farooq, who was in charge of foreign procurement for the nuclear program throughout the 1990s. His son, Asim, said his father was being pressured to testify against Khan though he has done nothing wrong.

"He's being arrested just because he was close to Dr. Khan," said the younger Farooq.

There have been public demonstrations supporting Khan and opposition political leaders claimed he and the other scientists were being targeted to avoid repercussions against the country's military leadership.

"The government is trying to wash their hands off by sacrificing people who made the bomb for the country," said Chaudhry Nisar, the leader of an opposition group.

Pakistani officials contended that Khan was driven at least in part by a desire for wealth, a contention that followed recent articles in Pakistani newspapers saying the scientist had amassed a fortune in real estate on a meager government salary.

The scenario described by Pakistani officials is that Khan used his position of trust to evade the tight security at the country's nuclear installations and disguise his personal proliferation regime from the military.

"Everybody knew ours was a covert program and every successive government and security agencies overlooked allegations about Dr. Khan's assets in the interest of the program and because of the trust in this person," a senior official told Pakistani reporters on Sunday night.

Pakistan's nuclear program was born in fear and secrecy three decades ago. On May 18, 1974, India detonated its first atomic weapon in the Rajasthani desert about 100 miles from Pakistan.

Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the father of Benazir Bhutto, had launched a nuclear effort in 1972. After the Indian test, he ordered a crash program to match his much larger neighbor.

Khan soon took on a pivotal role. Trained as a metallurgist, he was working at a Dutch engineering firm that was a major subcontractor for a European consortium building an advanced centrifuge enrichment plant. He was on holiday in Pakistan in 1975 when the prime minister asked him to take charge of Pakistan's uranium enrichment program.

By the early 1980s, Pakistan was making progress on its bomb. The extent of U.S. knowledge was laid out in a secret State Department briefing memo dated June 23, 1983.

"There is unambiguous evidence that Pakistan is actively pursuing a nuclear weapons program," said the memo, which was declassified and later published by the National Security Archive, a nonprofit group in Washington.

Three years later, Khan boasted in an interview with a Pakistani newspaper that Pakistan had a nuclear bomb.

By all accounts, Pakistani technology was first passed to Iran in 1989. What remains unclear is who initiated the offer, and who profited from it.

Two former senior Pakistani officials said in separate interviews last summer that General Beg secretly offered to sell the technology to Iran. They said Benazir Bhutto, prime minister at the time, blocked the sale after learning of it from an Iranian leader.

Khan has admitted that he started selling technology to Iran in 1989, but the Pakistani officials said he claimed to have stopped two years later.

But diplomats said the IAEA has evidence of Pakistani assistance to Iran as late as 1996. Relations between the two countries soured about that time because of Pakistan's support for the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Some intelligence officials and experts said, however, that Pakistani assistance to Iran's covert program continued despite the troubled relations.

In May 1998, Pakistan successfully tested its first atomic weapon. Khan became an overnight hero, dubbed the father of the Islamic bomb. What was unknown was the extent of his assistance to other countries.

Despite suspicions that its technology had leaked to Iran and North Korea, Pakistani leaders consistently denied providing any help to outside nuclear programs.

In an interview with the Times last summer, Musharraf insisted that Pakistan had never provided nuclear help to Iran, before or after he took office in 1999.

Hard proof of Pakistan's role in helping Iran began to emerge last year after IAEA inspectors were permitted into Iran's nuclear facilities. The advanced centrifuge program that they discovered was based clearly on the Urenco designs that Khan had stolen nearly 30 years earlier, according to diplomats and intelligence officials.

In addition, they said, components of some centrifuges appeared to have come directly from Pakistan. One diplomat said Iran told the IAEA it had complained to Pakistani scientists that some of the machines it had bought did not work properly.

The secret relationship began to unravel further last November. In response to an IAEA demand, Iran turned over a complete history of its nuclear program. Among the information was a list of middlemen and scientists with links to Pakistan and Khan, according to diplomats who have seen the material.

IAEA inspectors and officials have been unable to determine how much money Iran paid for the nuclear technology and designs. But two diplomats familiar with the inquiry said suspicions are that "tens of millions of dollars" were paid to Pakistani scientists and middlemen associated with them.

One of the diplomats said some money was funneled back to secret accounts in Pakistan through the Bank of Credit and Commerce International, which was founded by a Pakistani and later collapsed from massive fraud in 1991.

A Senate report in 1992 by Sen. John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat, said there was "good reason" to conclude that BCCI helped finance the nuclear program. Arms technology rather than money apparently was behind the transfer of centrifuge technology to North Korea, according to interviews with people in Europe, the United States and Asia.

As Pakistan neared completion of its bomb, efforts to develop a delivery system intensified. In late 1993, Khan approached Benazir Bhutto a few days before she was headed to North Korea for a meeting with its leader, Kim Il Jong.

"If you are going to North Korea, it would be very good if you could talk to Kim Il Jong about helping us with this nuclear project," Khan said, according to the two former Pakistani officials.

Khan explained that he wanted designs for long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Bhutto agreed, telling aides that she hoped she could reduce the military pressure on her government by helping Khan. She returned from Pyongyang with computer disks containing plans for missiles.

The former officials said Bhutto denied trading nuclear technology for the designs, saying instead that Pakistan paid for them. Later, U.S. intelligence and other sources reported that Pakistani nuclear technology was being traded to North Korea for missiles because Pakistan did not have the money to pay.

In his confession, the senior Pakistani official said Khan said his dealings with North Korea lasted from the early 1990s until 1997. But U.S. intelligence officials believe that transfers were made as recently as 2000.

Libya, on the other hand, appears to have paid substantial sums for Pakistan's centrifuge technology, according to diplomats familiar with the discoveries in the North African country.

"Best guess is that the Libyans paid $40 million or more for centrifuges, components and designs," said a diplomat who has seen documents provided by Libya.

While Iran had withheld some information about its dealings with Pakistan, diplomats said that Libya provided a more comprehensive look at how the network operated and who some of its players were.

The Libyan program started in the early 1990s, using a Pakistani-designed centrifuge known as the G-1. Diplomats familiar with the disclosures by Libya said some of the centrifuges were used and had been flown to Libya from Pakistan.

Later, they said, Libya switched to a more advanced Pakistani centrifuge design, called the G-2. Plans for these machines were among the documents provided to the U.S. and IAEA by the Libyans.

The second-generation machines were being manufactured at a plant in Malaysia through an arrangement made by Khan, according to the diplomats. Components from the plant were intercepted on the way to Libya last October by U.S. authorities.

Details about the Malaysian plant remain sketchy. The Pakistani official told reporters Sunday that a man linked to Khan was in custody in Malaysia and that Khan had admitted meeting with Iranian scientists in Malaysia.

A diplomat in Vienna said the plant was involved in the oil and gas industry and was part of a larger Malaysian company. He said that he did not know its name.

The Pakistani official who described Khan's confession said the nuclear transfers stopped after Musharraf created the National Command Authority to take control of the country's nuclear arsenal in early 2002.

Musharraf is expected to address the country later this week, after the end of religious holidays. The question now, according to U.S. officials and experts, is whether he will say the investigation will continue or is over.

"It's incomprehensible to me that there wasn't collusion between these scientists and their superiors, though not necessarily Musharraf himself," Perkovich, the expert at the Carnegie Endowment, said. "But, given that Musharraf and the military run the country, we should be skeptical that the investigation will follow all the leads into the military."

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 03 Feb 2004 09:36

Maybe now we will have Tim and other worthies acknowledge that there was no missile development program in Pakistan, and when Khan comes out with the final blow (there were no nukes, the emperor had no clothes) we can buy a round for Zinni.

James Bund · Post by **James Bund** » 03 Feb 2004 09:41

Of all the hunting expeditions, the easiest is to find a SCAPE GOAT

He he I like it.

BTW try some single malt Lagavulin-it goes well with Schadenfreude (to be restricted only to Pakistani discomfort chortle chortle).

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 03 Feb 2004 09:52

And the American comedy show continues...

http://www.intelligenceonline.net

Pak troops to train in US

2 February 2004: Between April-October this year, nearly five hundred Pakistani soldiers and intelligence operatives will be trained in two US military academies in safeguarding WMDs and preventing proliferation.

A two-member Pakistani team is shortly leaving for America to finalise the training programme in the US army intelligence centre and school in Arizona and the US army-training centre in South Carolina.

While both Pakistani intelligence operatives and soldiers will train in Arizona, the instructions would be restricted to soldiers in the South-Carolina centre.

Following the proliferation of nuclear technology from Pakistan to Iran and Libya, and the detected involvement of the so-called “father of the Pak A-bomb”, A.Q.Khan, in the proliferation, the United States is frantic to put safeguards on Pakistan’s nuclear establishments.

The Pakistan army is split on these safeguards imposed by the US and on the sacking of Khan as the prime minister’s advisor on strategic issues, and Musharraf wants a separate unit to take over the security of the nuclear establishments.

“For himself and his close aides, Musharraf no longer trusts the army’s security, and he has created a special team,” a diplomat said, “and that system is now being extended to the nuclear establishments as well.”

In two meetings with his corps commanders, Musharraf is said to have disclosed the plans to create special troops to guard the country’s nuclear establishments.

Maybe we need to protect TSP's "WMD related program activities"

Prateek · Post by **Prateek** » 03 Feb 2004 09:57

Originally posted by parsuram:
I will bring up this salient point once more. North Korea, Iran and Libya - all three Voluntarily disclosed their nuclear weapons development programs and went on to point to the pakis as the source of proliferation. These are fairly anti American States. What would make them come forward in such a short period of time to do this. I do not consider it due to shock & awe from Iraq. The US, by its own admissions, was surprised (could be contrived, but why bother, if the US was instrumental in obtaining disclosures). The PRC, imo, is a prime candidate in causing these developments. They have the necessary clout in all three countries. This bomblets proliferation was their strategic baby all along, with pakis as side kick Pancho Vila. Imo, PRC has decided to back off and reassess their policy. Xerox Khan just used it for personal gain peddling dud stuff (no doubt gave PRC guys a bad rep. in the process, and the PRC had to be aware of his & pakis little Nukes R Us enterprise.

Remember ??? In the Neelam plan thread, recently, I had mentioned that 'so far China has worked with Pakistan' in Kashmir, but 'India can work with China against Pakistan' if they play their cards well.

Here ... http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=005942;p=2

Post time : posted 11 January 2004 07:57 PM

Looks like it is happening ?

kgoan · Post by **kgoan** » 03 Feb 2004 10:18

Ramana,

things are moving to fast to come to any firm conclusion as yet. At the moment, it's simpler to just read the various reports comming out, and leave the collating and pattern-matcing for later.

However, it would be worth keeping a couple of points in mind:

Gorilla trap >> Can anyone seriously believe that the US will ever leave Pak even if OBL is found? Nook-nood or not, the Pak scientists/engineers themselves represent a latent threat to the US. And that's not to mention the obvious threat of the Pak generals.

The Pak military high command are clearly cowards - more so then Xerox or the civilians - but cowards are more dangerous because they won't come at you up front but will aim the knife for your back.

The US *is* trapped in Pakistan. The real question is: what will the US do to make *their* stay in Pakistan more comfortable for themselves?

Monkey trap >> We sit down comfortably, with a hand held fan, a packet of beedis and a nice glass of toddy (cashew not coconut!) and watch the show.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 03 Feb 2004 10:41

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_557968,00050001.htm

Pakistan to prosecute AXK. I believe that this is the "Charge of the light brigade" excuse Humphrey outlines to Jim Hacker in "A question of loyalty" (Yes, Minister).

excuse: This was the work of a misguided individual, and his conduct will be investigated by an internal inquiry.

parsuram · Post by **parsuram** » 03 Feb 2004 10:42

muddur:

Yes, I follow your posts. And I do believe that ABV's China visit has had major effects. As I mentioned on the previous page, the 3 decade long India-paki-US-China quad is reducing to an India-US-China triangle (with pakis and BDs thrown in for flavor, perhaps not for long).

And while I am enjoying this moment of intense paki discomfort as any one else here, and it is no doubt a source of much merriment, I do wish India is working to get tangible benifits out of the present situation. One possibility I would suggest, though risky and dangerous, would be to press the US at this time to take Indian PKF contengent(s) in Afghanistan. It should be attractive to the US as a breather for its forces, and pakis wailing against it at this time should not be a factor. But the IA on the ground in Afghanistan will certainly be in harm's way. However, benifits far out weigh costs here, imo.