Tracking India's Admission into International Groups & Bodies

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Jun 2016 17:13

One has to study the implications of such diplomatic moves that push things to the very limit right upto its breaking point. Earlier Indian diplomacy was more understated, while there used to be intense lobbying, but effort was never to play in foreground and stick to background, especially where cards were stacked against us.

This is a new model, and this has it's implications. Modi has obviously rocked the boat, and now it can never be set back again as if nothing happened. This needs to be studied in detail.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 Jun 2016 17:17

habal wrote:China also opposed us because they know unhindered trading in energy can make India the backend of global manufacturing instead of China.

So it is imperetive for us to begin a new nuclear cartel with USA blessing. China can sit by itself with brazil, south africa in NSG.

especially since post emission control world will be centered around non-conventional energy rather than coal-based which China is so desperately trying to offload to pakistan under guise of CPEC.

One cannot be a big global player without using the very same muscle that elevated one to that status.

shitty little countries that put little spokes and the big ones that put bigger spokes in our wheel should be made to feel pain in one way or the other.

that is realpolitik.

For once, abandon the SDRE ways, and bring out the stick.

just enough to make the goras (includes all non Indian) aware that there will be consequences.

Screambowl · Post by **Screambowl** » 24 Jun 2016 17:27

A. Jaitley is having lunch with Chinese Businessmen in Beijing, I am sure there is something he is conveying..
https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/746260451122520065

@TimesNow
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley at luncheon meeting with Chinese business leaders in Beijing

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Jun 2016 17:28

'India’s membership was not taken up' - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

Lead negotiator and Director-General of the Arms Control division at the Chinese foreign ministry Wang Qun speaks to Diplomatic Editor Suhasini Haidar.

China denies blocking India’s membership bid at the NSG, repeatedly asserting that India’s case did not come up specifically as the question of its signature to the Non Proliferation Treaty needs to be resolved first.

Speaking to Diplomatic Editor Suhasini Haidar outside the NSG conference venue in Seoul, lead negotiator and Director-General of the Arms Control division at the Chinese foreign ministry Wang Qun claimed “dozens of members” of the 48-member group support China’s position.

Q: Why does China stand opposed to India’s membership, when so many countries have supported it?

A: There is no question of opposing or supporting India’s membership. To discuss something on the agenda is one thing, some “irrelevant remarks” may be made. Despite the fact that India’s membership was not on the agenda, people are concerned and China too attaches great importance to the membership applications of NPT states for members at the NSG including India and Pakistan. China has worked hard to make this a topic for discussion on how to deal with such countries.

Q: But a special session was held, discussing the inclusion of non-NPT members. Now only two India and Pakistan have applied, and only one whose membership has been backed by multiple members that is India….

A: Well, India was not a specific agenda item, though the discussion you refer was held with the caveat that there can always be interventions or comments made by any member. Country specific memberships is not discussed normally. Even so, since members including China attach great importance to India’s membership application, so we asked for an exercise to discuss the “political legal and technical” aspects of participation by countries of non-NPT states.

Q: Is China isolated? More than 30 countries of the NSG have come out in support of India, we have seen the leaders of Switzerland, Mexico, US,UK, France say publicly that India’s membership application should be accepted.

A: No, China is not isolated. Firstly, India’s membership was not taken up. Also on the question of how to deal with Non-NPT states, the group is divided, and far apart, and there are many including some countries you mentioned , I do not want to name them because of confidentiality rules at NSG, but their public statements are not what the Indian media said they were. They appreciated the efforts India has made for the NSG but in the meantime hoped that its membership could be considered within the framework of the NPT. In fact, the NPT is really an issue, because for admission the NSG has five criteria for members, most noticeably the NPT, it is a must. This is not a rule set by China, this is the rule set by the NSG and reaffirmed by the international community.

Q: Are you saying that there is consensus in NSG members that NPT is a precondition to membership? How many support that?

A: Well yes, there is broad consensus on the criteria for NSG membership, and NPT is among them. Starting from the year 2000, the NPT is a necessary criterio.

Q: PM Modi spoke to President Xi Jinping in Tashkent, calling for China to make a fair assessment of India’s merit. Despite that, there seems to be no shift in China’s stand. Should India give up hopes, or may this be reconsidered in the near future?

A: I think India is making great efforts, and China has taken positive note of India’s non-proliferation efforts. So have other countries like Pakistan, though to a different degree. So we see India’s case as a close friend and near neighbour.

Q: Pakistan is a known proliferator of illicit nuclear trade including to Iran Libya North Korea. Don’t you think it is unfair to consider India and Pakistan in the same category?

A: They are in the same category of non-NPT state parties. This is based on the fact they haven’t signed the non proliferation treaty. This is a fact of life and no one can deny it. {What he is saying is that proliferation or being scrupulous deosn't matter, only arbitrary 'categorization'.

Q: Do you think China’s stand at the NSG will affect bilateral ties with India? Is that not a concern?

A: China has tried to positively support the discussion that may eventually lead to India’s membership at the NSG at some stage. I think not only China but dozens of countries share China’s view that we need to discuss how we can go forward, how can we deal with non-NPT states as a whole. In the first place, a decision needs to be taken within the group, and then we can come to India’s case.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Jun 2016 17:32

This NPT is the cornerstone of NSG is just a convenient handle being used by China. Most NSG member nations have cheated on the provisions of NPT & NSG itself.

Screambowl · Post by **Screambowl** » 24 Jun 2016 17:36

In 2015, exports to India increased by 6.6% compared to last year, while imports fell by around 10%. Switzerland is one of the ten largest investors in India. According to the Swiss National Bank, Swiss direct investment in India amounted to CHF 4.5 billion at the end of 2014.

this can be reduced and can be given to some other contender. EU will be desperate in need of business deals after BrExit.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 24 Jun 2016 17:44

Boycott Pakistan was easy. But boycott China has to start at some level. I am now going to actively avoid unless there is just no other way for a necessity.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 24 Jun 2016 17:47

This is a good development. We also identified some smaller foes, other than Pakistan, which is a good thing to know. They chose the price they would pay (penalties from India, as opposed to China). Time will tell if that choice was right.

As for China, as the worst proliferators on the planet at least as far as non-NPT signatories are concerned, they have deliberately played a blunt open hand, and shown their intention. That is useful, going forward.

The question to China now is, what level of missile technology do they want to transfer from outside MTCR, and more importantly to whom. The question to India is what level of nuclear techology do we want to transfer, and to whom.

China will need to ponder on that. India, as a non-NPT state, is perfectly within it's rights to transfer all kinds of nuclear technology to anyone who wants to buy. We are already under 360 degree nuclear and missile threat from both China and Pakistan. China's nuclear concerns are limited so far to the P5 and India. That situation can become fluid.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 Jun 2016 17:52

JE Menon wrote:This is a good development. We also identified some smaller foes, other than Pakistan, which is a good thing to know. They chose the price they would pay (penalties from India, as opposed to China). Time will tell if that choice was right.

As for China, as the worst proliferators on the planet at least as far as non-NPT signatories are concerned, they have deliberately played a blunt open hand, and shown their intention. That is useful, going forward.

It is related to hobbling India and constraining it's responses to the CPEC.

They are not comfortable with India disputing the land on which it is being built.

dada · Post by **dada** » 24 Jun 2016 17:55

# Thread moderator

I have been following this thread right from beginning. Normally we keep analysing things in great details . But this time , it is different . This whole NSG was a real eye opener for me. It is time for action at personal level , then at family level , and then at local community level . Let us resolve & start , 1 step at a time . Boycott Chinese items whereever possible. Can we have a separate thread for compiling even small actionable ideas to eliminate/replace all chinese items from our life which can be implemented right away ?

GLOBAL VIEW ---> LOCAL ACTION

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2016 18:02

chetak wrote:One cannot be a big global player without using the very same muscle that elevated one to that status.

shitty little countries that put little spokes and the big ones that put bigger spokes in our wheel should be made to feel pain in one way or the other.

that is realpolitik.

For once, abandon the SDRE ways, and bring out the stick.

just enough to make the goras (includes all non Indian) aware that there will be consequences.

We should try to restrict any war, military or economic, at the most to 1 or 2 fronts. It is always good to give a major power a sound thrashing. Then all others fall in line and respect you.

China needs to be taken down in a multi-pronged way without even talking about it. Let's keep our rhetoric positive as a ladoo ka dabba and our actions full of knives. Economic rivalry has to be the first battle using "Make in India".

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Jun 2016 18:28

dada wrote: I have been following this thread right from beginning. Normally we keep analysing things in great details . But this time , it is different . This whole NSG was a real eye opener for me. It is time for action at personal level , then at family level , and then at local community level . Let us resolve & start , 1 step at a time . Boycott Chinese items whereever possible. Can we have a separate thread for compiling even small actionable ideas to eliminate/replace all chinese items from our life which can be implemented right away ?

GLOBAL VIEW ---> LOCAL ACTION

We have a 'Manage China Threat' thread. Do you want one more? I have no problems provided you lay down exactly what should go into the one that you start, that would not fit into the 'Threat' thread. And, make a few posts after that 'ground-laying' initial post which would act as a template.

In the end, we have to contribute our mite for educating fellow Indians in containing China as China has completely exposed its hand now without any ambiguity.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Jun 2016 18:50

One country persistently created procedural hurdles, says India on its failed NSG bid - PTI

India on Friday failed in its determined bid to clinch membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) at the two-day plenary here in the face of strong China-led opposition.

The NSG plenary ended on Friday after deciding against accepting India's membership application, in a clear setback to New Delhi's efforts to join the 48-nation grouping.

An upset India later accused "one country", a clear reference to China, of persistently creating procedural hurdles during the discussions on its application.

"We understand that despite procedural hurdles persistently raised by one country, a three-hour-long discussion took place last night on the issue of future participation in the NSG," external affairs ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup said.

"The NSG plenary in Seoul earlier in the day decided against granting India membership of the grouping immediately and said it will continue to have discussions on participation of countries which have not signed the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

"An overwhelming number of those who took the floor supported India's membership and appraised India's application positively. We thank each and every one of them. It is also our understanding that the broad sentiment was to take this matter forward," he said.

China, which had made no secret of its opposition, succeeded in scuttling India's bid despite a significant majority backing the Indian case. Thirty-eight countries supported India, according to Indian officials.

Beijing was unrelenting in thwarting India despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi urging Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting in Tashkent on Thursday to support India's case on its merits.

Besides China, countries like Brazil, Switzerland, Turkey, Austria, Ireland, New Zealand were also opposed to India's entry because it is not a signatory to Nuclear non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT). {I do not know how accurate these reports about these countries are. In fact DAWN report even says Russia was against India. I am therefore unable to take these reports on the face value}

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Jun 2016 18:59

Is there a vote at end of it, or else every individual just does some jaw-jaw. Unless there is voting, this is only report of some nobody doing jaw-jaw and offering some talking points. Not concrete opposition .. i.e except China ofcourse, the infamous champion nuclear proliferator of this world.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 24 Jun 2016 19:15

After observing the operation of certain consensus based SDOs, for a given resolution, any country which does not unequivocally support the resolution can be taken as an objection (principled or procedural). The minutes of the meeting if not made pubic, we can never find out the reality.

Dumal · Post by **Dumal** » 24 Jun 2016 19:20

Gus wrote:Boycott Pakistan was easy. But boycott China has to start at some level. I am now going to actively avoid unless there is just no other way for a necessity.

One concrete way is to actively discourage people we know from buying Chinese brands of electronics - mobile phones, computers/components, household appliances, etc. and instead buy local goods or worse case, Japanese, Korean or Taiwanese.

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 24 Jun 2016 19:26

So much for nuclear deals and MTCRs

The world order is so messed up that thorium is still the only option for us. Hopefully, this will bring the focus back to warhead designs. The first bjp govt tested a design in its first term. Modi needs to be a pragmatist and revive the testing folks who have been waiting patiently.

habal · Post by **habal** » 24 Jun 2016 19:30

>> The world order is so messed up that thorium is still the only option for us.

excuse me, we already have a waiver. But this is to enter club formally.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 24 Jun 2016 22:46

A path forward for India to become NSG member by year end: US

The US on Friday said that there is “a path forward” for India to become a full member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group by the end of the year, hours after the group’s plenary meeting ended in Seoul with no decision on India’s membership in face of strong China-led opposition.

“We are confident that we have got a path forward by the end of this year,” a top Obama administration official said.

“It needs some work. But we are confident that India would be a full member of the (NSG) regime by the end of the year,” the official told PTI on condition of anonymity.

Refusing to divulge the discussions and opposition to India’s membership within the 48-member grouping, the official said details of the internal deliberations are confidential.

But the US strongly believes in India’s membership in the NSG and the Obama Administration has “worked closely” with India and other countries on this issues, the official said.

Without going into details of deliberations, the official referred to a similar discussion within the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) to which India was inducted early this month after months of discussions within its member countries.

Like NSG, decisions within MTCR is taken with consensus.”We expected a discussion on the role that India will play and where it has been,” said the official.

“We were able to end discussion this week and we have a clear path forward for India to become a full member by the end of the year,” the official asserted.

“That’s our expectation,” the senior administration official reiterated when asked if US expects that India’s NSG membership could be achieved by the end of this year.

“Our expectations is that this would be finished by the end of this year,” the official said.

The NSG ended its plenary meeting in Seoul with no decision on India’s membership.

China, which had made no secret of its opposition, succeeded in scuttling India’s bid despite a significant majority backing the Indian case. Thirty-eight countries supported India, according to Indian officials.

so who are the 9 holdouts?

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 24 Jun 2016 22:49

malushahi wrote:A path forward for India to become NSG member by year end: US

The US on Friday said that there is “a path forward” for India to become a full member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group by the end of the year, hours after the group’s plenary meeting ended in Seoul with no decision on India’s membership in face of strong China-led opposition.

“We are confident that we have got a path forward by the end of this year,” a top Obama administration official said.

“It needs some work. But we are confident that India would be a full member of the (NSG) regime by the end of the year,” the official told PTI on condition of anonymity.

Refusing to divulge the discussions and opposition to India’s membership within the 48-member grouping, the official said details of the internal deliberations are confidential.

But the US strongly believes in India’s membership in the NSG and the Obama Administration has “worked closely” with India and other countries on this issues, the official said.

Without going into details of deliberations, the official referred to a similar discussion within the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) to which India was inducted early this month after months of discussions within its member countries.

Like NSG, decisions within MTCR is taken with consensus.”We expected a discussion on the role that India will play and where it has been,” said the official.

“We were able to end discussion this week and we have a clear path forward for India to become a full member by the end of the year,” the official asserted.

“That’s our expectation,” the senior administration official reiterated when asked if US expects that India’s NSG membership could be achieved by the end of this year.

“Our expectations is that this would be finished by the end of this year,” the official said.

The NSG ended its plenary meeting in Seoul with no decision on India’s membership.

China, which had made no secret of its opposition, succeeded in scuttling India’s bid despite a significant majority backing the Indian case. Thirty-eight countries supported India, according to Indian officials.

so who are the 9 holdouts?

I am guessing-

China, Switzerland, Austria, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa, Turkey and 2 others.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 24 Jun 2016 22:56

I think India should conduct a dozen nuclear tests every year till NSG offers India membership itself and then should do another two dozen tests.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 24 Jun 2016 23:04

kittoo wrote: I am guessing-

China, Switzerland, Austria, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa, Turkey and 2 others.

i was not counting china in the "holdout" list. it is the villain.

should have clarified.

so it is your list + 3 others.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 24 Jun 2016 23:12

Indian power plants are sourcing electric generators from china. Metro trainsets are being sourced from them.
All these items are made in india, but are being imported from cheen, amongst other big ticket items.
This must stop forthwith under Make In India
Huge anti dumping duties on chinese steel, electronics, pharmaceuticles & other items are needed

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 24 Jun 2016 23:24

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 906697.cms

In the end, diplomats said 38 countries declared outright support for India's accession, while nine others held out questions on procedure. China however maintained its line against India which helped to sway fence-sitters like Ireland, New Zealand and Austria, who pushed for a process and criteria to determine entry of non-NPT countries.
Others like Switzerland spoke about rules of entry but supported India, said sources in the room. China's closest ally was Turkey, they said.

Turkey. Expected under Turdogan. And we didnt say a word when Turkey shot down a Russian plane.

This sounds interesting.

Ultimately, it took the joint efforts of the western countries, UK, Germany, France, Australia and US to build in an escape clause for India in the NSG plenary statement. The key sentence there, "Participating Governments reiterated their firm support for the full, complete and effective implementation of the NPT as the cornerstone of the international non-proliferation regime" was amended by some countries to include the word "implementation of the NPT" rather than "adherence" to NPT. This helps India revisit the NSG membership question later this year or the next NSG plenary in Switzerland.
India has maintained that even as a non-NPT nation, it had implemented all NPT commitments.
A less remarked aspect of the NSG meeting was the lack of high level American support for India. Sources in Washington said the Obama administration put some of its middle level bureaucrats to make the necessary calls on India's behalf, which doesn't carry adequate heft. Unlike in 2008, when George Bush and Condoleezza Rice took a personal interest, there was no intervention by either Obama or Kerry. That made it easier for China to maintain its tough position, without adequate pushback from the US.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 24 Jun 2016 23:25

As its NSG bid fails, India says Paris Climate Agreement ratification may be delayed - TOI

A big outcome of the NSG failure is that India will now not ratify the Paris Agreement anytime soon. That agreement is a key element of US President Barack Obama's legacy.
......
In the end, diplomats said 38 countries declared outright support for India's accession, while nine others held out questions on procedure. China however maintained its line against India which helped to sway fence-sitters like Ireland, New Zealand and Austria, who pushed for a process and criteria to determine entry of non-NPT countries.

Others like Switzerland spoke about rules of entry but supported India, said sources in the room. China's closest ally was Turkey, they said.

Per se IR, NZ and Austria wants some criteria, hmm, that will not be a big issue (for any future meeting).

Chinese diplomats exercised a filibuster for the better part of Thursday to block a discussion on India. They only relented to a three-hour discussion on "technical, Legal and Political Aspects of the Participation of non-NPT States in the NSG" on condition that there would be no decision.

Ultimately, it took the joint efforts of the western countries, UK, Germany, France, Australia and US to build in an escape clause for India in the NSG plenary statement.

Its shows that China is playing role of Jayadradha, and Jayadradha got only one chance of obstruction.

A less remarked aspect of the NSG meeting was the lack of high level American support for India. Sources in Washington said the Obama administration put some of its middle level bureaucrats to make the necessary calls on India's behalf, which doesn't carry adequate heft. Unlike in 2008, when George Bush and Condoleezza Rice took a personal interest, there was no intervention by either Obama or Kerry. That made it easier for China to maintain its tough position, without adequate pushback from the US.

This was also my hunch, and now its proved. US wants India to get NSG, but at the same its wants to expose Chinese nataunki to India. At next NSG meeting US may put its might. Clearly China has erred, now they have antagonized India and NaMo. In this whole saga, I think US has played a crafty game.
-----------
Path forward for India to become NSG member by year-end: US - Zee

"We were able to end discussion this week and we have a clear path forward for India to become a full member by the end of the year," the official asserted.

"That's our expectation," the senior administration official reiterated when asked if US expects that India's NSG membership could be achieved by the end of this year.

"Our expectations is that this would be finished by the end of this year," the official said.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 24 Jun 2016 23:50

kittoo wrote:
malushahi wrote:A path forward for India to become NSG member by year end: US

The US on Friday said that there is “a path forward” for India to become a full member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group by the end of the year, hours after the group’s plenary meeting ended in Seoul with no decision on India’s membership in face of strong China-led opposition.

“We are confident that we have got a path forward by the end of this year,” a top Obama administration official said.

“It needs some work. But we are confident that India would be a full member of the (NSG) regime by the end of the year,” the official told PTI on condition of anonymity.

Refusing to divulge the discussions and opposition to India’s membership within the 48-member grouping, the official said details of the internal deliberations are confidential.

But the US strongly believes in India’s membership in the NSG and the Obama Administration has “worked closely” with India and other countries on this issues, the official said.

Without going into details of deliberations, the official referred to a similar discussion within the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) to which India was inducted early this month after months of discussions within its member countries.

Like NSG, decisions within MTCR is taken with consensus.”We expected a discussion on the role that India will play and where it has been,” said the official.

“We were able to end discussion this week and we have a clear path forward for India to become a full member by the end of the year,” the official asserted.

“That’s our expectation,” the senior administration official reiterated when asked if US expects that India’s NSG membership could be achieved by the end of this year.

“Our expectations is that this would be finished by the end of this year,” the official said.

The NSG ended its plenary meeting in Seoul with no decision on India’s membership.

China, which had made no secret of its opposition, succeeded in scuttling India’s bid despite a significant majority backing the Indian case. Thirty-eight countries supported India, according to Indian officials.

so who are the 9 holdouts?
I am guessing-

China, Switzerland, Austria, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa, Turkey and 2 others.

your list + Ireland + 2 others.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Jun 2016 00:00

i hope this paves the way for Modi led GOI to start putting extra tarriffs on PRC trade.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 25 Jun 2016 02:31

When will we realize that America is not a "friend"?
America basically just loves America. It will sell it's Mother for a dollar. India kya cheez hai.
We need to approach these discussions from a position of strength and carrying a danda. Merely begging will never and has never worked.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 25 Jun 2016 02:43

"By the end of this year": that means after the US elections. I'm not sure that either President Hillary or Trump will be willing/able to push India's NSG membership through.

I view that US claim with skepticism.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 25 Jun 2016 03:02

^^^ inauguration day is jan 20, 2017. not to take anything away from your skepticism though.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 25 Jun 2016 03:29

I hope this paves way for Shakti-III soon enough.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 25 Jun 2016 03:50

I don't think a lame-duck administration will push through India's NSG membership. They'll probably leave it for the next administration to deal with.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 25 Jun 2016 04:52

not when the current president views paris agreement and india's engagement as part of his legacy.

btw, the 123 agreement was signed in october 2008. no lame duck issues there.

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 25 Jun 2016 05:26

KJo wrote:When will we realize that America is not a "friend"?
America basically just loves America. It will sell it's Mother for a dollar. India kya cheez hai.
We need to approach these discussions from a position of strength and carrying a danda. Merely begging will never and has never worked.

Thats right. Its all America's fault.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Jun 2016 06:05

malushahi wrote:A path forward for India to become NSG member by year end: US

“We were able to end discussion this week and we have a clear path forward for India to become a full member by the end of the year,” the official asserted.

“That’s our expectation,” the senior administration official reiterated when asked if US expects that India’s NSG membership could be achieved by the end of this year.

“Our expectations is that this would be finished by the end of this year,” the official said.

If we recall, that is what Ms. Sushma Swaraj indicated at her press briefing early this week.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Jun 2016 06:12

As its NSG bid fails, India says Paris Climate Agreement ratification may be delayed - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

India's high energy, high profile campaign to get into the NSG failed Friday morning, as China remained adamantly opposed to even considering the issue.

After a plenary meeting in Seoul, which saw Chinese diplomats attempt to block even a discussion, the 48-member nuclear cartel could not take a decision on India's membership.

A last minute diplomatic outreach by Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese president Xi Jinping also failed to cut any ice.

A big outcome of the NSG failure is that India will now not ratify the Paris Agreement anytime soon. That agreement is a key element of US President Barack Obama's legacy.

The Indian statement says clearly, "An early positive decision by the NSG would have allowed us to move forward on the Paris Agreement." This will be a big blow to the Obama administration which wanted India to ratify the pact so it could enter into force.

It was understood that an NSG membership would help India clear the Paris Agreement.

In the end, diplomats said 38 countries declared outright support for India's accession, while nine others held out questions on procedure. China however maintained its line against India which helped to sway fence-sitters like Ireland, New Zealand and Austria, who pushed for a process and criteria to determine entry of non-NPT countries.

Others like Switzerland spoke about rules of entry but supported India, said sources in the room. China's closest ally was Turkey, they said.

The NSG non-decision on India's membership will have implications for India's bilateral relations with China. While no one was willing to go public, China's open hostility to India's global aspirations is now out in the open, which will make it difficult, coming as it does after China's refusal to sanction terror leader Masood Azhar.

Chinese diplomats exercised a filibuster for the better part of Thursday to block a discussion on India. They only relented to a three-hour discussion on "technical, Legal and Political Aspects of the Participation of non-NPT States in the NSG" on condition that there would be no decision.

Ultimately, it took the joint efforts of the western countries, UK, Germany, France, Australia and US to build in an escape clause for India in the NSG plenary statement. The key sentence there, "Participating Governments reiterated their firm support for the full, complete and effective implementation of the NPT as the cornerstone of the international non-proliferation regime" was amended by some countries to include the word "implementation of the NPT" rather than "adherence" to NPT. This helps India revisit the NSG membership question later this year or the next NSG plenary in Switzerland.

India has maintained that even as a non-NPT nation, it had implemented all NPT commitments.

A less remarked aspect of the NSG meeting was the lack of high level American support for India. Sources in Washington said the Obama administration put some of its middle level bureaucrats to make the necessary calls on India's behalf, which doesn't carry adequate heft. Unlike in 2008, when George Bush and Condoleezza Rice took a personal interest, there was no intervention by either Obama or Kerry. That made it easier for China to maintain its tough position, without adequate pushback from the US.

China's insistence on NPT as criteria was clarified by its senior foreign ministry official, Wang Qun. Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the NSG, he said, "If exceptions are allowed here or there on the question of NPT, the international non-proliferation order will collapse altogether... NPT is a must. In other words, the applicant state shall be party to the NPT." China has been a major proliferator of nuclear and missile technology to North Korea and Pakistan, so its insistence on NPT as a cornerstone of the non-proliferation regime is ironic.

A dejected MEA pointedly referred to "procedural hurdles persistently raised by one country" behind the NSG impasse. Responding to China's suggestion on the NPT, MEA said, "Our stand on the NPT is well known. But let me underline that in September 2008, the NSG itself addressed this issue. Paragraph 1 (a) of the September 2008 decision states that the decision on India contributes to the "widest possible implementation of the provisions and objectives of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons". There is thus no contradiction between the NPT and India's closer engagement with the NSG."

The Modi government might come in for some flak for the failure to get an NSG decision, especially after mounting such a big campaign. But top level sources in government said, "we tried to the best of our ability, that we consider to be more important."

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 25 Jun 2016 06:35

Let's see. I recommend that India not hold its breath. In the meantime, India should finalize some weapons exports.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 25 Jun 2016 07:54

No entry in NSG: India blames one country

an indication of things to come?

A disappointed New Delhi, which invested considerable amount of political capital on the bid and was seen to have underestimated the opposition, singled out “one country” which, it said, raised hurdles persistently — an oblique reference to China. This kind of finger-pointing is considered rather unusual in diplomatic statements made by countries.

so much for the "has not signed the npt" whinefest.

He stressed that though India made its application for membership on May 12, it had begun its engagement with the NSG in 2004. “It has been suggested that India’s participation in the NSG requires it to join the NPT. Our stand on the NPT is well known. But let me underline that in September 2008, the NSG itself addressed this issue. Paragraph 1 (a) of the September 2008 decision states that the decision on India contributes to the ‘widest possible implementation of the provisions and objectives of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons’. There is thus no contradiction between the NPT and India’s closer engagement with the NSG,” said the MEA spokesperson.

AbhiJ · Post by **AbhiJ** » 25 Jun 2016 08:24

The situation of today's global trade will revert back to the period between the Two world wars.

Regional trading blocs and individual trading agreements. India should also now out of many useless namesake groupings and stand independent.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Jun 2016 09:18

I am fine with the outcome. Geopolitics is a long term game and one need to have patience. Important thing is we managed to convince almost everyone. That proves our political strength and reach in the world. Our strategists must have learned a lot and should be learning important lessons. This will help in longer term. NSG membership is not a zero sum game for us. There are other ways.

We managed to isolate China. This is just a begining.