Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 24 Jun 2016 23:56

Lalmohan wrote: also the under 35's overwhelmingly voted in and the over 50's mostly out

Given the "Leave" verdict, does the above imply that the UK is already a significantly aging society? Wonder what the fertility rate is over there. Gotta go look it up.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 24 Jun 2016 23:58

all western societies are ageing - there is a skew to the baby boom post WW2 generation

Abhay_S · Post by **Abhay_S** » 25 Jun 2016 00:00

^^^ via teetar
David Axelrod ‏@davidaxelrod 7h7 hours ago Chicago, IL
Portentous and meaningful stat: 66% people who left school at 16 voted for Leave. 71% of those with university degrees voted to Remain.

question for the Learned Maulaners. How does this look from
1. Paris?
2. Athens?
3. Beijing ?
4. New Delhi?
72. just for fun pindi?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Jun 2016 00:04

right wing groups in france, holland and northern italy (also a separatist movement) - have called for immediate referendums in their countries

the greeks must be in total shock - any chance of germany forgiving their debt is now vanished into thin air

beijing will be smirking but worrying about its exports into the EU via britain

delhi has similar concerns about access to europe

pindi... wondering if the welsh goats will now be more accessible

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 25 Jun 2016 00:06

RajeshAji, there is such a precedent with Gerhard Schroder IIRC. Putin must be licking his lips for EU12 - UK to dump the Neo-Nato entrants. Seriously, the day EU expansion was agreed from the earlier 12, it was the beginning of the end. US was the driver for such an expansion. From the perspective of right balance, the inner six was the optimal, at most the 12.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2016 00:08

Lalmohan wrote:all western societies are ageing - there is a skew to the baby boom post WW2 generation

Indeed yes LM ji, >25% population of UK is over 60 years old.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demograph ... ed_Kingdom

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Jun 2016 00:08

the US has used the UK to destabilise the EU (as someone said - keep them in their place)
1. eastern expansion
2. turkey membership
3. libya rehab

and of course...

GW1 and 2

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2016 00:17

Europe facing existential crisis

This weekend, Spain – a country that hasn’t had a government since December – will try again. Podemos, the anti-austerity party that was formed only two years ago, is in second place in the polls and threatening a surprise victory that, in the current climate, would not be that surprising.

In October Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, is promising a referendum on rejecting refugee quotas being imposed from Brussels – it is a PR stunt but it will serve to advertise the chasm in values on religious tolerance and multi-culturalism that now divides Europe east from west.

In the same month Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, holds a referendum on Italian governance reforms that would trigger his resignation if they are rejected - as the polls currently suggest they will be. His departure would be another significant blow to centrist forces.

Then next year, in March, Holland will hold its own parliamentary elections where Mr Wilders – who like Donald Trump, is reviled by much of his own country’s political establishment – will seek a popular mandate to force his anti-Islam, anti-Europe party into government. He currently leads some polls and today called for Dutch referendum on membership.

Then, in April and May, France will vote in an election where Marine Le Pen is likely to reach the second round of the presidential campaign – where she will almost certainly lose – but not before her brand of nationalist, nostalgic politics that is now sweeping Europe is given a massive platform.

In the longer term, Europe’s future looks bleak – demographically, economically, geopolitically – since so many of the challenges thrown up by globalisation (immigration, trade competitiveness, technological disruption) require a scaled-up, collective response that these national politics is making so very hard.

Optimists will see Brexit as a trigger for a new beginning for Europe; a shock therapy that acknowledges the failures of the current arrangements and tries to seek a new mode of governing that better acknowledges national realities while preserving Europe’s open markets, borders and skies.

But no one should underestimate the difficulty of that, given the incoherence of populist political narratives that – as a new European Council on Foreign Relations survey shows – fundamentally want less global trade and more borders; less multi-culturalism and more EU disintegration.

The unavoidable reality is that as globalisation continues, in terms of trade share, innovation capacity and population, Europe is shrinking relative to the rest of the world

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... al-crisis/

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2016 00:22

The issue of pensioners and population on elderly side voting out is picking up momentum with young voters expressing anger on twitter 'not in my name'

'This vote doesn't represent the younger generation who will have to live with the consequences' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... or-brexit/

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Jun 2016 00:25

half the UK is in real and absolute shock - this is a really serious issue

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 25 Jun 2016 00:27

Wondering if this is a manufactured issue. The only way to know the break-up along age lines or education lines is through the previous opinion polls, because the ballot (if it followed norms as in other parts of the world) should have been secret. So you can't back out the age or education of the guy/gal (won't know which it is either - guy or gal, I mean) who voted either way. This might well be a parting shot of the bitter "Remain"ers, to cast aspersions on the genuineness of the vote.

If the youth really feel that the old geezers are messing up their future, they should disenfranchise the geezers, right? That's the nature of the democratic vote, everybody gets an equal say, even somebody who is in terminal illness with a week to live. So why crib that "you guys will be dead in twenty years, but we have to live with it?"

How about if some young guy commits suicide or dies of drug OD a week after casting his vote? The officials should go back and annul that vote, because that guy no longer has to deal with the consequences! And the young people themselves are deciding the future of teenagers, kids, and toddlers, who will live even longer with the consequences.

The real issue, IMHO, is this entitled attitude of people, which makes them think that there is some kind of "perfect" governance system which can mete out perfect justice to everybody. The young of the cellphone generation are particularly prone to yearning for this kind of utopian governance system. Democracy is imperfect, deal with it, humans are not going to come up with a perfect governance system, and do weighted averages for how much say each individual should have in any decision, based on the exact relative stakes that they have in the consequences.

There *IS* however a perfect system, which perfectly doles out consequences to every living being, in accordance with their actions. It's called *KARMA*

.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2016 00:28

LM ji morale is really low with feeling of impending doom sinking in, talking to several NHS employee it is obvious anger againt immigration and Islamic threat got vented out in Brexit.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 25 Jun 2016 01:38

IndraDji, given that the smart ppl will have to keep the country running, do you see the reaction turning into rage against the Far Right and hence a sweep at the next election? It's the first time in Western Oirope since the Nazis that the Far-Right ranters have actually won something. Seems like they don't know what to do with it once they have caught it, so now EU netaship is clamoring for "Get Out NOW!" and pointing out that the BREXIT netas are now stalling for time. See gleeful reporting on RT.com

As the economy drops, exports drop, currency drops, the mood may become very dark indeed against the BREXITers.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2016 01:46

UBji no one knows at the moment how will it fan out; but there is despondency and fear regarding uncertainty.

mean while-- END OF THE EU? Germany warns FIVE more countries could leave Europe after Brexit http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/683 ... ope-Brexit

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Jun 2016 01:49

RajeshA wrote: How about free travel and work within the Commonwealth?

sans pakistan ...

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 25 Jun 2016 02:17

I posted the following in the global economic challenges thread a day before the vote:

Brexit drama is like a constipation, a way for shit to remind the body of its importance. Britain will not exit and will remain within EU to continue to keep it constipated.

These freeloaders will need to find another host to parasite on before they leave the current host (EU).

My guess is that the voting will be rigged in favor of 'Remain' by slim margin to keep this lever alive for later use.

For India, it is better they be in EU else we get undue focus from the freeloaders and their machinations. I hope we wizened up to not allow the repeat.

Rajan's exit email was timed to deliberately make India/RBI feel his absence during the time of potential chaos. His advise will hardly be needed.

In case, just in case, wonder does happen and voting is not rigged, and the freeloaders choose to be on their own then it means US/UK will engage in deep fk of EU but resulting geopolitical/geo-economic scenarios are going to be interesting. We will have to take the chocolate soldier's (Petro Puroshenko) words seriously that 2017 will be tumultuous and many maps will be re-drawn.

I hope that brexit wins and bring EU closer to Eurasia.

The way market reacted a day before (and giving me the oppty to dump most, not all though, and go in cash, not because of the exit fear but just profit taking), it does not appear that the result was expected. So, the riggers were lax and as a result Cameron got screwed.

I expect in the coming days/weeks there will be wishy-washy statements out of UK in which case there is a re-think but if the tone of brish1t statements sound more like planned reaction, then I will brace up for 2017 scenario I mentioned above and prepare to safeguard my interests. I sincerely hope India, Indian leadership, and Indian pop in general do the same. baaki sab bhaad me jaaye.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Jun 2016 02:21

SwamyG wrote:
kit wrote:India should leave the commonwealth and stand for itself ..let the Elephant stand
I bet Modi will stand with the people of UK.

I would rather he stands on the people of UK. You know the elephant crushing the mouse.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Jun 2016 02:38

just been watching the tv - the overwhelming vox pop is that immigration (of eastern europeans) was the single biggest issue for people to vote leave

outside of london (and some of the larger cities), england is strikingly white, poorer and often not well educated - and most disenfranchised from the establishment and the political order. into that mix of low employment and benefits culture drop in large numbers of hard working east europeans who depress wages and eat funny sausages and suddenly there is a causus belli

the leave leadership have been caught unawares. they didn't expect to win - maybe a close defeat would have been ammo to contest the leadership at the next party conference, but this is too fast too soon. there is no plan. which parts of the treaty to exit? what bargain to drive? very very high risk that the lumpen proletariat will be worse off through the process. sure france and germany will make friends with uk again, but there will be a cost.

the problem is not british alone, it is EU wide, and also the same forces are at work in the USA

i think we are witnessing a big tectonic shift in the global political framework...

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 25 Jun 2016 03:03

The most refreshing and candid take on Breexit.
'Citizens of the World'? Nice Thought, But ... -- Bloomberg dated 24-June-2016.

From the article

The EU never did this work. When asked "Where are you from?" almost no one would answer "Europe," because after 50 years of assiduous labor by the eurocrats, Europe remains a continent, not an identity.
........
........
Elites missed this because they're the exception -- the one group that has a transnational identity.
........
........
Unhappily for the elites, there is no “Transnationalprofessionalistan” to which they can move. (And who would trim the hedges, make the widgets, and staff the nursing homes if there were?) They have to live in physical places, filled with other people whose loyalties are to a particular place and way of life, not an abstract ideal, or the joys of rootless cosmopolitanism.

This is coupled with the possibility of Scots and Northern Ireland asking for Separation from the Union called UK. Think about it, these guys, i.e. Scots and Northern Irish, want to be ruled by faceless Brussels rather than their Brethren in Westminster. It is becoming apparent that a minority(i .e. the Scots, the Irish and can certain parts of London) are unable to digest what is selected by the majority. Some may call it the tyranny of the minority, like the shortest/ smallest guy has to overcompensate for his lack of his stature by being obnoxious and more militant.

This vote should be read on the following lines
1) The failure of EU and specifically EuroZone elites to make a European project in which the average Joe of Europe had a say.
2) The failure of the high priest of Capitalism to take care of Average Joe. They saved the banks in EU and USA and in case of India they saved the big Industrialist houses from bankruptcy but they did not take care of the average Joe. Let us not forget Communism arose due to excess of 19th and 20th century Capitalism.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 25 Jun 2016 03:12

Lalmohan wrote:just been watching the tv - the overwhelming vox pop is that immigration (of eastern europeans) was the single biggest issue for people to vote leave

outside of london (and some of the larger cities), england is strikingly white, poorer and often not well educated - and most disenfranchised from the establishment and the political order. into that mix of low employment and benefits culture drop in large numbers of hard working east europeans who depress wages and eat funny sausages and suddenly there is a causus belli

the leave leadership have been caught unawares. they didn't expect to win - maybe a close defeat would have been ammo to contest the leadership at the next party conference, but this is too fast too soon. there is no plan. which parts of the treaty to exit? what bargain to drive? very very high risk that the lumpen proletariat will be worse off through the process. sure france and germany will make friends with uk again, but there will be a cost.

the problem is not british alone, it is EU wide, and also the same forces are at work in the USA

i think we are witnessing a big tectonic shift in the global political framework...

That is very similar to the subtext I sense in the US. Trump may yet win. There is huge resentment about the directives from the elite.

It's a Marie Antoinette moment in the making.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 25 Jun 2016 03:17

Lalmohan wrote:
outside of london (and some of the larger cities), england is strikingly white, poorer and often not well educated - and most disenfranchised from the establishment and the political order. into that mix of low employment and benefits culture drop in large numbers of hard working east europeans who depress wages and eat funny sausages

the problem is not british alone, it is EU wide, and also the same forces are at work in the USA

i think we are witnessing a big tectonic shift in the global political framework...

Don't rule out Donald Trump yet. Yes he will have to win over more whites than Mitt Romney did to overcome his obnoxious mutterings. But he is representing the very same disfranchised electorate in USA. The forces at work in UK have striking parallels to those in USA. And let us not forget UK exited EU with a very slim majority of less than 4%.

It is truly possible, as you have said, that we are witnessing a big tectonic shift. It is time that the democratic elites wake up to the fact that they might have saved the Banks and big Industrialist but they have done nothing for normal people out in the streets. The Banks were saved but people still got kicked out of their homes. The Industrialist loans were rolled over or refinanced but the cost is paid by us with lack of roads, lack of proper drainage or water supply or electricity. After all the amount of money which governments earn is fixed and limited, and if government is going to recapitalize the Banks then it will not have money left for other items.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Jun 2016 03:26

yes - 'failure of capitalism' is a phrase that has been cited of late - but not today much

i believe that there are different drivers for scotland and northern ireland compared to london

scotland should have voted like wales - i.e. poor and have benefited from EU largesse, but would rather lash out at westminster; but nationalism is a stronger idea, and the EU gives a framework to be scottish and modern and independent - just like say catalonia, euskadi (basque), piedmont, corsica, and maybe even bavaria as independent states

northern ireland - the catholics clearly are signalling their desire to integrate with the republic of ireland (as ever). but interestingly it seems that many protestants are also applying for Eire passports - since they are allowed to be dual nationals! not sure how this is going to play out, but a high chance of a return to the catholic/protestant violence and terror movements

london is where ALL the action is in the UK and is a beneficiary of highly skilled migrants from the EU and elsewhere making it one of the coolest places to be from many a perspective. that excess wealth is enough to attract poor migrants too - but not enough rural englanders to grind out a living. in the US, people would move towns for a job, but in europe they cling to the land and their ancestors. london has voted to remain cool, but may not be as cool as it has been of late.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Jun 2016 03:29

i am now sadly concluding that trump will win. the beast is out of the cage and he will ride it

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Jun 2016 04:42

Lalmohan wrote:i am now sadly concluding that trump will win. the beast is out of the cage and he will ride it

In the end it is for good. Even he would be less evil than Billary.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 25 Jun 2016 05:03

Yagnasri wrote:In the end it is for good. Even he would be less evil than Billary.

Not so sure about it. He's been courting EJs and conservative Christians left, right and centre. If he wins, I bet one of the first steps would be try and turn screws on us to allow unfettered access to Unkil-sponsored EJs.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Jun 2016 05:10

What I find really surprising is the abysmal quality of British opinion and exit polling. Our pollsters get flak for being unable to call a 3-4way first past the post race right. But that's a very complex thing to do. On the other hand, getting a binary yes/no referendum so badly wrong, as the Brits did ? That's gross incompetence. Even the bookies did not offer any early signs that things were very different on the ground. Most of the market over-reaction is because no one really took into account that this might actually happen. Markets all over in the last two weeks rose steadily pricing in a Remain vote as a foregone conclusion. No wonder they corrected so much.

The Leave-ers are looking very deer in front of headlights right now. It's clear they did not expect to win. Farage in fact conceded soon after the exit polls forecast a win for Remain. The plan all along was for Remain to win narrowly enough that UKIP would have electoral gains over Labour and Tories, while Boris Johnson could get his own back against his Eton schoolmate David Cameron. Now they're like the dog that chased the car; the car stopped out of nowhere, and now the dog does not know what to do next. Except for the fringe, I don't think even UKIP wanted, or was prepared for, Leave to win. Boris is already backpedaling on the exit timeframe, saying 'this will take time', while Brussels now want UK out ASAP so that they can contain the damage of this amazing tamasha.

disha · Post by **disha** » 25 Jun 2016 05:48

Hear it here first., once scotland and ireland leaves england - India should pass a resolution adapting england as its 31st or 32nd or whatever state and then go to UNSC on behalf of UK. Since UK no longer exists., the mantle falls on India to take UK's position and its territories.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 25 Jun 2016 05:53

Lalmohan wrote:all western societies are ageing - there is a skew to the baby boom post WW2 generation

Its an European problem (plus Japan and China in the East). In the USA, millennials are now the largest generation exceeding the baby boom generation.

Link

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 25 Jun 2016 06:18

Lalmohan wrote:i am now sadly concluding that trump will win. the beast is out of the cage and he will ride it

Per UBCN Analysis, no. Quite the opposite. BREXIT happened too soon. Had this happened in the 3rd week of October, Trump may have ridden the wave of excitement about Liberation From PC Bureaucratic Oppression.
Now there are 5 terrible months of news to come. Stock market down. Currency down. Jobs vaporizing. Maybe riots. Demonstrations. Old folks find out that insecurity has only shot up, now gone down. Chaos in Oirope. More nations destabilized.
And wave after wave of articles condemning the Far Right wackos and their fear campaign. Each one ending with "And if Trump comes to power..".

And 5 months is not enough for the recovery to start.

I think that there is every reason for Fear. Of a Hiclinton win.

I think BREXIT is going to shatter Trump's bubble.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 25 Jun 2016 07:34

If Scotland and London leave the UK, the UK's economy will contract significantly (by 35%, perhaps). England would then have the geopolitical weight of Italy.

For India, this is a once-in-a-300-year opportunity.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 25 Jun 2016 07:57

If war on syria, refugee crisis in Europe, and brexit are three points somewhere in the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ....sequence (as eg.,) that will eventually lead to dissolution of EU, removal of Euro as USD competitor, and then followed by the disintegration of Russia as a nation state preceded or followed by China as the end state, then essentially US/UK agreed to run-over whole of Europe, if it is necessary, to get to the Bear.

Just as UK is trojan of US in EU, there are several countries that are trojans of US/UK within EU.

At what point does Europe ( Germany to be exact) fights back and how? So far they have accepted status quo (anemic or no growth scenarios) over doing anything drastic to spur the growth or spurn some members.

Is there a Brexit counterpart of NATO-exit?

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 25 Jun 2016 08:07

Almost needless to say, the continued decline of Europe is a golden opportunity for India to fill the void owing to our giant economy, growth rate, democratic stability, and large English-speaking workforce. I do not think NaMo sarkar will let it go waste. I am starting to hear a giant sucking sound...and its the elephant, not the dragon.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 25 Jun 2016 08:18

UlanBatori wrote:Quite the opposite. BREXIT happened too soon. Had this happened in the 3rd week of October, Trump may have ridden the wave of excitement about Liberation From PC Bureaucratic Oppression.
Now there are 5 terrible months of news to come.

I must agree with the Mongol shaman Enqyubaatar on this one. The next few months will scare the shizzle outta ordinary peeps in the western world. Billary will suddenly appear a much safer bet than a Trump presidency.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 25 Jun 2016 08:25

Lalmohan wrote: there is another factor to remember

1. farrage and ukip are a neo fascist movement and will be BAD NEWS for Indians in Britain, even if they pretend otherwise now

all of the above will be applicable to the trump election which is now imminent. the donald has been maalishing his mijjile (with his small hands) in scotland already

and exit will enhance the recession and poverty and once the east europeans are gone, the brits will turn once more on the browns and blacks
big mistake for british indians to vote exit

The main thing is that leftist socialists from uk have been too poisonous to Bharatvarsh. This is more important to remember. Their poisonous nature is compounded by the love they have for islamics and porkis PLUS stealthiness hypocracy by which they present themselves as humanists while continously trying to shame Bharatiya sabhyataa.

I think on Bharat-Rakshak this should count as a bigger point then the NRIs living in uk / us / europe. In case they create a pressure on NRIs this will be eye opener to Bharatvasis to anglo-saxonia's fake-universalism.

I want right wing popping up everywhere in western europe.

Remember the kind of poisonous question Leftist guardian had asked NaMo on his visit to uk?

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 25 Jun 2016 08:33

Avarachan wrote:If Scotland and London leave the UK, the UK's economy will contract significantly (by 35%, perhaps). England would then have the geopolitical weight of Italy.

For India, this is a once-in-a-300-year opportunity.

In about 8 years, our economy would be double of what it is, and it means that even if they remain together, it has very limited shelf life. They are riding into a natural place on where they belong (along with Bakis, in Bakistan).

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2016 08:37

In the mid-1990s the UK NHS was being demolished while Indian doctors were being displaced by European immigrants. Many patients woefully regretted the loss of Indian docs who spoke English (having passed a fukin test) while EU types, Germans, Poles, Greeks, Spaniards simply walked in by right.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 25 Jun 2016 08:48

^^. Here's what I meant by that. The structure of the international system is rigid: even though it might be manifestly obvious that the system needs to change, none of the current power-brokers will want it to change. That creates real problems for India.

For instance, in 1900, it was obvious that Germany was rising and deserved a larger role on the world stage. How did England respond? By engineering WWI and WWII. Today, Germany is still an occupied country which lacks an independent foreign policy and a credible nuclear deterrent.

India is definitely rising. However, that does not guarantee anything.

The UK just shot itself in the foot. India should seize this opportunity.

By the way, with respect to India and China, I think the Anglo-Americans are up to their old tricks. I think they want to engineer war between both countries as a way of eliminating them as rivals to the West. That's why there must not be any compromise regarding CISMOA.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2016 08:51

From Teetar

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 25 Jun 2016 08:55

Avarachan wrote:^^. Here's what I meant by that. The structure of the international system is rigid: even though it might be manifestly obvious that the system needs to change, none of the current power-brokers will want it to change. That creates real problems for India.

For instance, in 1900, it was obvious that Germany was rising and deserved a larger role on the world stage. How did England respond? By engineering WWI and WWII. Today, Germany is still an occupied country which lacks an independent foreign policy and a credible nuclear deterrent.

India is definitely rising. However, that does not guarantee anything.

The UK just shot itself in the foot. India should seize this opportunity.

Of Course. Anything to accelerate their descend into Bakistan should be worked on. No disagreement there.

Usually power-brokers derive there leverage with deals and influence and at the end of the hierarchy of such folks, there would be some monopoly (enforced by hard power) over some resource either it be a natural resource or some service (banking etc). It is this swamp that we need to drain and grind it down to Bakistan.

srin · Post by **srin** » 25 Jun 2016 09:03

I hear that Scotland can re-vote on independence and perhaps Norther Ireland as well. I think we should pay them a few billion to purchase BIOT - the most important Brit real estate that we care about.