Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jun 2016 13:50

https://twitter.com/EndiZentarmi/status ... 0187645952

manbij video of daesh rounding up all able bodied men, issuing them arms and urging them to fight to the end.

you can clearly see middle school kids who look very skeptical about this, but have no choice now. some would be innocent, some would be khalifa cubs who early flocked to the daily executions in the town square ...

a couple of the kids look no older than my middle school son and he can barely bring himself to fight his little sister....such is life

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jun 2016 15:11

over 100 sorties flown by the Russian Air Force and SAAF over the Bani Zayd area with live feeds showing rodents and their families packing up their loot and leaving the quarter in an even more abandoned condition than before. There are still some pockets of jihadist resistance inside Bani Zayd, but, they cannot survive under the intensifying inferno engulfing their positions. In fact, my source in Latakia reports that commanders left behind to obstruct the SAA’s onslaught at Bani Zayd are openly repenting on their cellphones their involvement in the whole insurrection. One commander who identified himself as “Abu Saleem Al-Hamawi” told the other rodent on the line, ostensibly in Turkey, that “I’m changing my attitude. This is something I cannot abide. Where is the help you promised?” (بدي اغير الاتجاه. هاي شغلة ما فيني اتحملها. وين المساعدة اللي وعدتلي اياها؟ ) I do not have the response of the other party to the conversation.

http://syrianperspective.com/2016/06/sy ... liyya.html

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 27 Jun 2016 15:16

Cross posted.

Israel and Turkey have apparently burried the hatchet.
^^ Basically an alliance against the Shia muslims.

Expectedly Turkey has also done a Pakistan on Israel.

Part 6 of the agreement says this -

" Turkey will prevent Hamas from using the country as a base from which to work against Israel. In turn, Israel has rescinded its demand that Turkey expel Hamas' command center from the country. Senior Hamas member Salah al-Arouri, who was responsible for the kidnapping and murder of Israeli teenagers Gil-Ad Shaer, Naftali Frenkel and Eyal Yifrach in Gush Etzion in the summer of 2014, is no longer in Turkey, and the authorities there have promised that he would not be allowed to return. "

Sounds eerily similar to Dawood Ibrahim and other terrorists that Pakistan hides and says they arent here.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jun 2016 16:52

its not that easy to provide direct help to the aleppo city interior and northern area as SAA has a contiguous route to Nubl-Zahra and YPG pocket behind it - so not from north.
from the south there is one road Castello road kind of ORR which is being watched carefully now.

to save their lives the rats might be well advised to abandon the inner city enclaves and head SW to their bros in southern aleppo countryside.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jun 2016 16:53

hamas is now a israel ally it seems unofficially. some hamas members had already joined the IS allied militias in southern syria and fighting/died there.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jun 2016 17:14

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai Jun 26
If we take away the suicide attacks, #ISIS is a tiger made of cardboard... and thugs.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 27 Jun 2016 18:27

Turdogan apologizes to Putin for the plane shootdown:

"President Putin has received a letter from Turkish President Erdogan where the Turkish leader expresses interest in resolving the situation around the downing of a Russian bomber jet," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jun 2016 19:12

IoW pls do not bomb aleppo

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jun 2016 19:47

Marcel Sardo ‏@marcelsardo
While Erdogan apologizes for SU-24 shoot down, killer of Russian Pilot, Alparslan Çelik, has been set free today

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jun 2016 22:01

Home Syria Syria Battle for Manbij city takes deadly toll on the Syrian Democratic Forces By Chris Tomson - 26/06/20165 The past 48 hours have proven costly for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as mostly Kurdish troops continue to push forward on multiple fronts surrounding the Islamic State stronghold of Manbij in northeastern Aleppo. Yesterday alone, 51 SDF fighters were killed in and around Manbij city with dozens more the previous day, according to Amaq News. 14 SDF fighters were killed by a ISIS suicide truck (VBIED) in the Sarrab poultry farms on the northern outskirts of Manbij while 18 SDF fighters were killed in the village of Khattaf, east of the city. The rest of the casualties were reported at the Kilo 4 area and Manbij silos, south of the city. According to Amaq News, a total of 157 SDF fighters have been killed this week alone. Booby traps and ISIS suicide bombers are playing an instrumental role in preventing rapid SDF advances. Meanwhile, snipers and airstrikes were said to have taken out “tens of ISIS fighters” in the past 48 hours, although no specific death toll was given. The city has been fully besieged for more than two weeks while SDF fighter have slowly infiltrated ISIS positions in the past few days, following a major U.S. coalition air campaign on the city. For now, approximately 20% of the city is controlled by the SDF while hundreds of ISIS fighters remain hidden inside the last 80%. Urban clashes are ongoing as we speak. In other related events, the number of Kurdish civilians taken hostage by ISIS in recent weeks now exceeds 1000 in the Aleppo governorate. Their fate remains undetermined.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ba ... ic-forces/ | Al-Masdar News

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Jun 2016 23:12

Some people are chastising Gary Kasparov on the tweeterdom. He tweeted that removing Assad would cause Putin an image dent. Even Nassim Taleb took him on.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 27 Jun 2016 23:21

I used to have some respect for Gary Kasparov until he started advocating jihadist causes (not just Syria but also Chechnya). His hatred for Putin has blinded him to the bigger picture and he would cheerlead for ISIS or Al-Nusra or any other monsters in the business of killing Russian troops. The man is a disgusting traitor.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 28 Jun 2016 00:17

kanan he is half jew and half georgian. That should explain everything. Someone should tell him to stick to chess.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Jun 2016 09:39

no reports of any IS captured alive in fallujah and manbij. some IS shaved beards and escaped with civilians, some were caught on the way.

I guess that key and whistle for the heaven's gates attract the true believers.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Jun 2016 12:31

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... laims.html

habal · Post by **habal** » 28 Jun 2016 13:28

This is a 9 minutes video with the good Doctor visiting the frontline in East Ghouta at Marj al Sultan, he was quite close to the frontline again.

Some forces that can be recognized from their uniforms over there, NDF, SAA and Republican Guards (Commandos) ... among others.
Worth watching this rare global leader visiting the soldiers in the frontline, simply because he really puts his life on the line to visit his troops (not in secured barracks far from the frontline as many western leaders visit in Iraq and Afghanistan), and it is touching to see some soldiers really responding with emotions to the Commander in Chief visit.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 28 Jun 2016 21:04

god bless him. Body language of the soldiers says it all u can not make it up

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 28 Jun 2016 21:20

Satya_anveshi wrote:Turdogan apologizes to Putin for the plane shootdown:

"President Putin has received a letter from Turkish President Erdogan where the Turkish leader expresses interest in resolving the situation around the downing of a Russian bomber jet," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Even the massive burnol application must not be helping.

poor turdogan, putin and russia must be really reaming him out good .

He has lost billion$ from lost russian tourist arrivals and construction related opportunities due to embargo and cancelled contracts.

habal · Post by **habal** » 28 Jun 2016 21:55

Official news sources have just released a pic of Erdogan making his personal apology to Putin.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 28 Jun 2016 22:22

habal wrote:Official news sources have just released a pic of Erdogan making his personal apology to Putin.

WTF?

Is this real? Photo Shopped image but good!

Phatti toh aisi ki poori duniya ne dekha.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 15 Aug 2016 01:20

Oh wow. I so missed this thread.

Kick the rebels out of eastern allepo now.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 15 Aug 2016 01:22

paging UB, Satya, singha, habal.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 15 Aug 2016 02:28

So so much missed this thread ! Singha ji your crisp analysis was sorely missed not to forget habal, UB and so many other contributors ..!!
While forum was dead Erdogan successfully pulled a coup dislodging any protest!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Aug 2016 10:16

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Aug 2016 14:40

reporting for duty saar....busy with work for a while but will drop by now and then like the backfires from iran.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Aug 2016 14:58

preparations are ongoing to take advantage of the Aleppo monkey trap which the jihadis have gotten into - for media and strategic reasons they cannot afford to retreat from the narrow corridor they have taken into Ramouseh and have to hold it, while the syrians and russians continue to shell and bomb daily causing valuable casualties and build up supplies for a eventual pincer attack from both sides.

the iran based backfires and kalibr armed naval units the russians are putting into place in caspian and med sea will have a role to play...

they have also lost kinsabba in the latakia mountains which commands a good view of the ghab plains allegedly...when SAA took advantage of most jihadis marching south to break the siege of aleppo.

SAA is training more people in how to use ATGMs like the iranian toufan TOWski and konkurs and kornets to deal with the frontal wedge of the nusra attack which is always a swarm of VBIED.

jihadis have their hand stuck in the jar and will not be able to get away easily...already they have lost some 1000-2000 fighters albeit most would be the cannon fodder and not the NATO-std elite nusra shock units who enter the fray after breaches are opened in the lines.

the SAA is also pushing in 1000s of tons of food supplies into the city before starting anything because their could be disruptions in supply of the Daesh attack the khanasser road again with only NDF units holding it open for now. shiploads of ammo are being trucked into theater perhaps to make up for anything lost on the artillery base bunkers.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Aug 2016 16:36

due to 2500+ km distance to russian bases, so far they were only dropping some 12 x 250kg bombs on each sortie. but real internal capacity is something like 22 and additionally , 4 long external pylons can carry 9 each ..... so max is around 58 x 250kg...enough to flatten ramouseh and the artillery base if something like 6 backfires stage the strike together.

hopefully that kind of backfire appearance, its first is in works for aleppo front..the gating factor is these heavies have considerable downtime post each sortie just as any old bomber and the time needed to prepare and load so many weapons....needs a lot of armourer groundcrew , eqpt, safe prep bunker areas and AN124 and IL76 sorties from depots in russia or movements by ship across the caspian for the weapons. I have read the B52 at full bombload takes a few days for its crew to fully stuff with the bombs

so it needs a lot of airframes to keep a few loaded and ready to roll at all times.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Aug 2016 16:37

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Aug 2016 16:39

^^ note the 4 pylons above..2 under the wings, 2 under fuselage. this bad boy if given the new Iran-aleppo combat radius of around 800km should be able to carry a full bombload without need for IL78 refueler. subsonic all the way so fuel burn is lowest.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Aug 2016 16:45

and they really need to get cracking on the planned production restart of the blackjack as well as B1 style rotary internal adapter racks for dumb and guided munitions/small missiles and external N-unit pylons like the backfire. a beautiful asset is being wasted just lobbing cruise missiles at the moment, when it could loiter all day over theater, releasing a FAB1500 type heavy on call, all day...a LDP under the nose would also be needed.

both the B52 and B1 have long been adapted for this. a lone B1 launched some heavy strikes on ISIS in kobane when US finally deigned to help the besieged kurds.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Aug 2016 13:07

China ‘to provide aid, enhance military training’ in Syria – top army official

https://www.rt.com/news/356161-china-sy ... -training/

Beijing and Damascus have agreed that the Chinese military will provide humanitarian aid to Syria, a high-ranking People's Liberation Army officer said, adding that the training of Syrian personnel by Chinese instructors has also been discussed.

Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of China's Central Military Commission, Guan Youfei, arrived in Damascus on Tuesday for talks with Syrian Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij, Chinese Xinhua news agency reported.

During the negotiation, Guan noted China’s consistent diplomatic efforts to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis, adding that Beijing is now seeking closer military ties with Damascus.

"The Chinese and Syrian militaries traditionally have a friendly relationship, and the Chinese military is willing to keep strengthening exchanges and cooperation with the Syrian military," he said.

Guan and al-Freij discussed the enhancement of training and "reached a consensus" on the Chinese military providing humanitarian aid to Syria, Xinhua reported, without providing further details.

According to the agency, Guam also met with a Russian general during his visit to the Syrian capital.

China has been operating in Syria alongside Russia and Iran in a “discreet manner” but now the time has come to “openly” step up anti-terrorist efforts, believes political analyst Roula Talj.

“We will see more involvement of China, of Iran and Russia. They will go [in] stronger after ISIS, especially after Russia-US talks. I do not think the US will have any chance to oppose the interference of these allies. The US president or any candidate will have to answer their own public[’s] opinion, so it is good for them that someone else is doing the dirty job,” Roula Talj told RT. “In the face of their own public[’s] opinion they have to be grateful that somebody else is cleaning the mess they had created, especially as ISIS is getting stronger every day inside of Europe. Of course, they are not extremely happy to see the BRICS countries taking over.”

habal · Post by **habal** » 17 Aug 2016 14:08

AoA
Rabb Rakha

let's begin this round with some comic relief
Saudi camo for fighting in yemeni desert.
Saudi soldier strike fear into the hearts of even the most war hardened vet.

this will make them indistinguishable from this

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 17 Aug 2016 14:47

^^^^^^^
seems like they are more focused on protecting their testimonials onlee

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Aug 2016 15:34

some 50-75 jihadis are getting killed daily on aleppo front by probing attacks, sniping, shelling and air raids.
the nature of the monkey trap is such they cannot afford to disengage and retreat back to the Idlib rear areas, leaving the Zinki orcs still surrounded in aleppo. that would infuriate their gcc, turkic and western backers.
so they keep trying with VBIEDs and swarm attacks.

the key is going to be who owns Khan Touman in the end...it overlooks the whole region and is a like a cork on the bottle...the iranian/afghan levies lost it in april 2016. capturing that would secure SW aleppo for the govt.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 17 Aug 2016 19:28

Singha, if the Russians need an excess of airframes to keep some bombers ready to go at all times (ref: your post on maintenance and ordinance-loading times), could they not beef up the Backfire presence in Hamadan with squadrons of Tu95 Bears? Those things were made to loiter for hours off the Alaska and North Sea/Atlantic coastlines with full bombloads during the Cold War. Not stealthy or supersonic, but if as you say the Backfires will need to go subsonic from Hamadan-Aleppo to conserve fuel, what does it matter?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Aug 2016 19:40

I am not too sure if the bears were ever adapted to carpet bombing the way B52 was in vietnam. their cold war role started with large nuclear bombs and moved to missiles later. one section of bears is exclusively for maritime recon and strike. so their internal bomb bays might now be just rigged for the cruise missiles.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Aug 2016 19:46

it has not been explained why the backfires from iran are operating with such a light bombload when they can carry 2X internally , plus plenty more on 4 external pylons.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Aug 2016 19:50

seems Rus has only 5 Tu22M3 upgraded to deliver PGM so far, out of 30 planned.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqDjNJrXEAA101j.jpg

platypus flying from iran delivering heavy payload
https://twitter.com/bm21_grad/status/765865725680648192

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Aug 2016 19:53

BM-21 GRAD ‏@bm21_grad Aug 16
Tu-22M3s flying from Mozdok could only carry 5-8 tons of bombs, now flying from Hamedan they can carry 22 tons says expert Konstantin Sivkov

^^ maybe they are in process of typing in the logistical chain to supply 150 tons of bombs to iran daily to permit this kind of payload for the 6 backfires...it will perhaps need 3 AN124 or more IL76 flights daily....not cheap....they were flying light from mozdok to save on repeated air to air refuelings a full load needs...only massa by activating air national guard units can ramp up to 150 tankers in a dire situation..and a couple of B1 global pawa full payload missions from dakotas (80 weapons) to libya needed 2 weeks of file pushing to line up 3 refuelings over the atlantic on way out and in ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Aug 2016 20:07

and that much of conventional bombs will not be in one bunker in russia...again long haul flights needed from the far corners and to munitions plants to cart all of that into iran .... expeditionary ops even on this small scale are not cheap. other than russia and massa none are even in a position to try it.