China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

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kit
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by kit »

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16099 ... ackers.htm


""they certainly has the NSA in mind :roll: ""

The quantum communications satellite is expected to further supply power to China's 2,000-km (1242-mile) quantum computer network, which is currently under construction.
This computer network, which connects Shanghai and Beijing, will be fully operational by the end of 2016. The government and financial institutions will test the system before it is opened to the public.
- See more at: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16099 ... on0tb.dpuf
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by member_28756 »

kit wrote:http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16099 ... ackers.htm


""they certainly has the NSA in mind :roll: ""

The quantum communications satellite is expected to further supply power to China's 2,000-km (1242-mile) quantum computer network, which is currently under construction.
This computer network, which connects Shanghai and Beijing, will be fully operational by the end of 2016. The government and financial institutions will test the system before it is opened to the public.
- See more at: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16099 ... on0tb.dpuf
Speaking of computers it looks like those Chinese thieves have put all that stolen information to good use. They should be made to pay patents infringement costs.


http://www.top500.org/news/china-tops-s ... p-machine/
China Tops Supercomputer Rankings with New 93-Petaflop Machine

Michael Feldman, June 20, 2016, 8:34 a.m.

A new Chinese supercomputer, the Sunway TaihuLight, captured the number one spot on the latest TOP500 list of supercomputers released on Monday morning at the International Supercomputing Conference (ISC) being held in Frankfurt, Germany. With a Linpack mark of 93 petaflops, the system outperforms the former TOP500 champ, Tianhe-2, by a factor of three. The machine is powered by a new ShenWei processor and custom interconnect, both of which were developed locally, ending any remaining speculation that China would have to rely on Western technology to compete effectively in the upper echelons of supercomputing.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

MANNY K wrote:
kit wrote:http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16099 ... ackers.htm


""they certainly has the NSA in mind :roll: ""

The quantum communications satellite is expected to further supply power to China's 2,000-km (1242-mile) quantum computer network, which is currently under construction.
This computer network, which connects Shanghai and Beijing, will be fully operational by the end of 2016. The government and financial institutions will test the system before it is opened to the public.
- See more at: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16099 ... on0tb.dpuf
Speaking of computers it looks like those Chinese thieves have put all that stolen information to good use. They should be made to pay patents infringement costs.


http://www.top500.org/news/china-tops-s ... p-machine/
China Tops Supercomputer Rankings with New 93-Petaflop Machine

Michael Feldman, June 20, 2016, 8:34 a.m.

A new Chinese supercomputer, the Sunway TaihuLight, captured the number one spot on the latest TOP500 list of supercomputers released on Monday morning at the International Supercomputing Conference (ISC) being held in Frankfurt, Germany. With a Linpack mark of 93 petaflops, the system outperforms the former TOP500 champ, Tianhe-2, by a factor of three. The machine is powered by a new ShenWei processor and custom interconnect, both of which were developed locally, ending any remaining speculation that China would have to rely on Western technology to compete effectively in the upper echelons of supercomputing.
http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-02-18/u ... as-history

If China becomes a high tech marvel in 100 years, nobody's gonna give a crap who stole what will seem like prehistoric technologies like computer chips.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by TSJones »

....if you are attempting to use 17th and 18th century British Mercantilism and America's response to it, as justification for modern day Chinese *theft* then you are way off base. it is in no way similar to what was was happening back then when the US could not get the equipment it needed to develop its economy. we were used as a source material commodity supply and that was IT.

fact is China has all the manufacturing capacity it needs. what China doesn't have is inventiveness or originality.

so they steal it.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

TSJones wrote:....if you are attempting to use 17th and 18th century British Mercantilism and America's response to it, as justification for modern day Chinese *theft* then you are way off base. it is in no way similar to what was was happening back then when the US could not get the equipment it needed to develop its economy. we were used as a source material commodity supply and that was IT.

fact is China has all the manufacturing capacity it needs. what China doesn't have is inventiveness or originality.

so they steal it.
I don't quite understand, are you saying that America stole actual machines from the British, or are you saying that they stole the designs? If they stole the designs, then I don't really see a difference. Those designs the Americans stole were just as cutting edge then as the techs China is stealing now. Keep in mind that just having manufacturing capability at all is already cutting edge in the 1700's, considering most of the world have yet the industrialize at that point of time.

You gotta walk before you can run, you can't do something nobody else has done before when you can't even do things that others have already done. Nothing wrong with climbing onto the shoulder of a giant to reach for the sky. One step a time, one theft at a time. :rotfl:

Also wanna add that as China becomes wealthier, it'll possess more means to acquire tech legally. Just this past year, for example, Huawei's R&D budge exceeded Apple's and its number of patents filed surpassed Qualcomm's to become the #1 patent-filing company in the world. In the first 6 months of 2016, China has also already spent more on Mergers and Acquisitions of foreign companies than they spent in all of 2015, and much more money is spent on purchases of just patents. Xiaomi purchased something like 1500 patents from Microsoft, for example. The Chinese people just want to move up the ladder, they'll do it legally if it can be done, but they won't hesitate to do it illegally if it can't. The Chinese government's responsibility is to lead the Chinese people to their rise, it ain't their responsibility to protect your IP. If you want it protected, go do it yourself. The U.S. has a lot of leverage over China, gather the political will and stop the theft if that's what you want, because if you leave openings, the Chinese WILL squeeze through and take a peek.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by TSJones »

thank you for admitting that you don't understand historical British Mercantilism and its application to frontier America.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

TSJones wrote:thank you for admitting that you don't understand historical British Mercantilism and its application to frontier America.
No need to be so antagonistic, I'm not here to pick fights, I'm here to share and learn, or else I wouldn't have lasted this long here as a Chinese poster. I've shared my thoughts, I'd love to learn from you the differences between what America did to what the Chinese are doing. Care to drop the snarky 'tude and explain your position a bit?
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by TSJones »

you gave an example of idea/invention/property theft committed in the US an example of forgotten hypocrisy of the US public. without historical context.

my point is this:

1. Pobody is Nerfect. the US was under an outside restrictive foreign policy whereby the US was treated as a commodity supplier colony/nation where it could not get the tools, implements and machinery it needed for its development. so yes individuals sometimes stole them. the brits would otherwise not allow it.

and occasionally down through history until better legal relations were established, it still happened from time to time.

2. it was never a US government policy/program to steal these foreign inventions. unlike in China.

when the US needs something, it usually invents it or out right buys it publicly.

the major area of US government grab of foreign inventions were spoils of WW2 in which the US took whatever inventions it felt it needed from nazi germany and japan. but it was no cheap bargain. gazillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of US lives lost to WW2 was a national tragedy.

3. I don't mind if somebody copies a look alike design as long as it is properly labeled as such. in fact when China copies a C-17, or any other plane look alike, I feel it's a matter of pride. imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. :)
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Indranil »

It was not always the case. For many examples exist to the contrary post WWII. You could say that they are spoils of the conqueror of war, but certainly they were not US inventions. I agree with you on one thing though: In general, plagiarism is looked down upon and punished in US, but it is encouraged in China. David knows this too. So, let's move on.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

TSJones wrote:you gave an example of idea/invention/property theft committed in the US an example of forgotten hypocrisy of the US public. without historical context.

my point is this:

1. Pobody is Nerfect. the US was under an outside restrictive foreign policy whereby the US was treated as a commodity supplier colony/nation where it could not get the tools, implements and machinery it needed for its development. so yes individuals sometimes stole them. the brits would otherwise not allow it.

and occasionally down through history until better legal relations were established, it still happened from time to time.

2. it was never a US government policy/program to steal these foreign inventions. unlike in China.

when the US needs something, it usually invents it or out right buys it publicly.

the major area of US government grab of foreign inventions were spoils of WW2 in which the US took whatever inventions it felt it needed from nazi germany and japan. but it was no cheap bargain. gazillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of US lives lost to WW2 was a national tragedy.

3. I don't mind if somebody copies a look alike design as long as it is properly labeled as such. in fact when China copies a C-17, or any other plane look alike, I feel it's a matter of pride. imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. :)
1) China is currently under an outside restrictive foreign policy whereby China is treated as a low-cost goods supplier where it could not get the tools, implements, and machinery it needed for its development. How different is this context compared to what America faced?

2) Did you read the article I posted? It was most certainly the American policy to steal such invention. Exactly like China. When China becomes wealthy and high-tech enough that the world has more to steal from China than it does from the world, I'm sure it'll move on to inventing or outright buying inventions publicly as well. As my previous post notes, it's already happening.
Historian Doron Ben-Altar describes Hamilton's campaign as "unabashed, state-sanctioned flouting of British law."
3) I agree, just take the compliment :lol: You get your butt kissed, the Chinese become richer, everyone wins!
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by kit »

one just have to see the evolution of korea and japan .. :lol: they were not born uber tfta as well
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

indranilroy wrote:It was not always the case. For many examples exist to the contrary post WWII. You could say that they are spoils of the conqueror of war, but certainly they were not US inventions. I agree with you on one thing though: In general, plagiarism is looked down upon and punished in US, but it is encouraged in China. David knows this too. So, let's move on.
I do know that, I just wanted to point out that plagiarism was not looked down upon and punished in the U.S. when it wasn't convenient to do so.

Now let's get back to topic, here are the first clear pics of the PLA's newest SSN, the 093B:

Image

Major changes compared to the original 093 include:
1) Elevated platform behind the sail, for launching YJ-18 AShMs, CJ-10 LACMs, among others.
2) Redesigned sail, looks a bit more like Virginia class' sail with a bit of a taper in front, though it still retains the hydroplanes
3) Bulges on the side containing sonar arrays

They're the first clear pics, but the ship has been in service for a while now and there are probably 2-4 of them in service already. Its declassification is also taken by some to indicate that the next generation SSN, the 095, will be ready soon.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

Here's another major development over the past few days. The first 055 cruiser is now being assembled out in the open:

Image

Main improvements over the 052D destroyer include:

1) Size, obviously. This ship will have a standard displacement of well over 10,000 tons.
2) VLS launchers. There'll be more of them, rumored 112 compared to 64 on the 052D. They'll also be deeper, at 9m as opposed to 7m, becoming the only ship class in the PLAN to utilize the maximal depth category of the new universal launching system (the three categories are 9m, 7m, and 3.3m)
3) Integrated mast, will have phased array radars of different bands.

There's also some talk of IEPS, but most consider that to be too ambitious and probably will only be incorporated in a future upgrade.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by member_28756 »

The US is doing something about it.

http://www.wired.com/2016/06/fastest-su ... aihulight/


China’s New Supercomputer Puts the US Even Further Behind


This week, the China’s Sunway TaihuLight officially became the fastest supercomputer in the world. The previous champ? Also from China. What used to be an arms race for supercomputing primacy among technological nations has turned into a blowout.

The Sunway TaihuLight is indeed a monster: theoretical peak performance of 125 petaflops, 10,649,600 cores, and 1.31 petabytes of primary memory. That’s not just “big.” Former Indiana Pacers center Rik Smits is big. This is, like, mountain big. Jupiter big.

But TaihuLight’s abilities are matched only by the ambition that drove its creation. Fifteen years ago, China claimed zero of the top 500 supercomputers in the world. Today, it not only has more than everyone else—including the United States—but its best machine boasts speeds five times faster the best the US can muster. And, in a first, it achieves those speeds with purely China-made chips.

Think of TaihuLight, then, not in terms of power but of significance. It’s loaded with it, not only for what it can do, but how it does it.

The Super Supercomputer

If you think of a supercomputer as a souped-up version of what you’re playing EVE Online with at home, well, as it turns out you’re not entirely wrong. “At one level they’re not very different from your desktop system,” says Michael Papka, director of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (home to Mira, the world’s sixth-fastest supercomputer). “They have a processor that looks very similar to the one in a laptop or desktop system—there’s just a lot of them connected together.”

Your MacBook, for example, uses four cores; Mira harnesses just under 800,000. It uses those them to simulate and study everything from weather patterns to the origins of the universe. The faster the supercomputer, the more precise the models and simulations.






On that basis alone, TaihuLight is a singular accomplishment. Its 10.6 million cores are more than three times the previous leader, China’s Tianhe-2, and nearly 20 times the fastest U.S. supercomputer, Titan, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. “It’s running very high rates of execution speed, very good efficiency, and very good power efficiency,” says University of Tennessee computer scientist Jack Dongarra. “It’s really quite impressive.”

If anyone’s qualified to say so, it’s Dongarra. He created the benchmark by which supercomputers were first compared in 1993 by TOP500, the organization that still ranks them today, and published the first independent evaluation [PDF] of TaihuLight’s capabilities.

Still, hardware’s not everything. Because supercomputers run specialized tasks, they require specialized software. “You can use a factory as an example,” says Papka. “A lot of people are working on putting a car together at the same time, but they’re all working in a coordinated manner. People who write programs for supercomputers have to get all of the pieces working together.”

TaihuLight passes that test, too. In fact, three of the six finalists for a prestigious high-performance computing award are applications built to run on TaihuLight. Aside from relatively slow memory—a conscious trade off to save money and power consumption—this rig is ready to go to work. “This is not a stunt machine,” says Dongarra. And it’s years ahead of anything the US has.

A Command Line Lead

TaihuLight is faster than anything scheduled to come online in the US until 2018, when three Department of Energy sites will each receive a machine expected to range from 150 to 200 petaflops. That’s ahead of where China is now—but two years is half an eternity in computer-time. That the lead has gotten so large galls some lawmakers for reasons both political and practical. Legislation exists calling for a supercomputer funding boost, but has spent the last year mired in the Senate.

“Massive domestic gains in computing power are necessary to address the national security, scientific, and health care challenges of the future,” says Rep. Randy Hultgren, a Republican from Illinois whose American Super Computing Leadership Act has twice been passed by the House of Representatives. “It is increasingly evident that America is losing our lead.” Meanwhile the DOE is working on innovating with the budget it has.






The other significant TaihuLight achievement stings US interests even more, because it’s political. China’s last champ, Tianhe-2, had Intel inside. But in February of 2015, the Department of Commerce, citing national security concerns—supercomputers excel at crunching metadata for the NSA and their foreign equivalents—banned the sale of Intel Xeon processor to Chinese supercomputer labs.

Rather than slow the rate of Chinese supercomputer technology, the move appears to have had quite the opposite effect. “I believe the Chinese government put more research funding into the projects to develop and put in place indigenous processors,” Dongarra says. “The result of that, in some sense, is this machine today.”

A Race Worth Winning

Broadly, it’s true that better supercomputers benefit the whole world, assuming scientists get to work on them. It doesn’t exactly matter what flavor the chips are. “On some level, it’s a trophy that you put on your mantel,” Dongarra says. “But what’s more important is what kind of science it does, what kind of discoveries you make.”

TaihuLight’s stewards tell Dongarra that they’re putting all that power toward advanced manufacturing, Earth-system modeling and weather forecasting, life science, and big data analytics. That sounds like a broad range, but it’s just a small slice of what supercomputers’ capabilities. “Each time we make an increase, we can add more science to the problem,” Papka says. “For the foreseeable future, until we can model the real world on a quark-for-quark basis, we’ll need more powerful computers.”


And those computers are coming—especially if the US gets serious about catching up.





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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

MANNY K wrote:The US is doing something about it.

http://www.wired.com/2016/06/fastest-su ... aihulight/
The other significant TaihuLight achievement stings US interests even more, because it’s political. China’s last champ, Tianhe-2, had Intel inside. But in February of 2015, the Department of Commerce, citing national security concerns—supercomputers excel at crunching metadata for the NSA and their foreign equivalents—banned the sale of Intel Xeon processor to Chinese supercomputer labs.
Quite a good example of the U.S. denying China the tools it needs for development, no?
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Prasad »

Hahaha. It is common lore that any and all chips are stm'd and recreated/copied/"researched" by the chinese eons ago.

No offense though. Beg/borrow/steal should be the motto when it comes to certain things.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

Here's an interesting read on the China-Thailand exercise from last year:

Image
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by TSJones »

DavidD wrote: The other significant TaihuLight achievement stings US interests even more, because it’s political. China’s last champ, Tianhe-2, had Intel inside. But in February of 2015, the Department of Commerce, citing national security concerns—supercomputers excel at crunching metadata for the NSA and their foreign equivalents—banned the sale of Intel Xeon processor to Chinese supercomputer labs.


Quite a good example of the U.S. denying China the tools it needs for development, no?
shameless hypocrisy by the Chinese.

in 1800 only 5% of US population lived in cities,

we had nothing but subsistence agriculture.

the Chinese would have everyone to believe they are held back when they have access to the finest of American universities and computers galore,

in truth, they are just too dumb to figure it out themselves so they steal our intellectual property.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by DavidD »

In 1800 3% of the world lived in cities, so the U.S. was substantially more urbanized than most of the world.

In 2014 54% of the world lived in cities, exactly the same urbanization rate as China in 2014.

What was that about "historical context" again? Let's try to stay civilized here, insults don't make your points sound any smarter.


Hypocrisy - noun, plural hypocrisies.
1. a pretense of having a virtuous character, moral or religious beliefs or principles, etc., that one does not really possess.

Only one of us is claiming to be virtuous, a prerequisite for being hypocritical.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by TSJones »

ok, comparing modern day Chinese intellectual property theft to 1800 America is specious reasoning and disinformation agitprop....

mods: no more from me on this
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Austin »

Image shows new variant of China's Type 093 attack submarine

http://www.janes.com/article/61727/imag ... -submarine
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by member_28756 »

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3e35348-2962 ... z4CUcEnlLA
Russia and China learn from each other as military ties deepen

Charles Clover in Beijing


Russia and China staged a bold new series of military manoeuvres last month. Not a single ship left port, nor did any tank fire up its engine. Instead, a team from China’s People’s Liberation Army sat with their Russian counterparts in Moscow, running a five-day computer simulation of a joint response to a ballistic missile attack.


Held in the Central Research Institute of Air and Space Defence in the Russian capital, the drill “was not directed against any third country”, according to Russia’s defence ministry. But few were under any illusion that the “aggressor” in the simulation was anyone other than the US.

The exercise — which analysts note involved sharing information in an extremely sensitive sphere — was highly significant because it indicated “a new level of trust” between the two former adversaries, says Vasily Kashin, an expert on China’s military at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

“The ability to share information in such a sensitive area as missile launch warning systems and ballistic missile defence indicates something beyond simple co-operation,” he says.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by kit »

https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-d ... 3d90570339

When Russian President Vladimir Putin heads to Beijing on Saturday to meet with his Chinese counterpart, several key figures from Russia's aerospace industry will join him. The two countries seem ideally poised to cooperate: Russia needs cash, and China needs technology. But for Russia, the long-term stakes of such an arrangement are higher.

In addition, the two countries are exploring a deal in which Russia would export its newer RD-180 rocket engines to China.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Singha »

the Shang class SSN is riding higher out of the water than usual to facilitate the TT loading. it appears to be 688 class size...around 6000t.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Singha »

688/virginia subs have a distinctive arrangement with spherical bow sonar in the lead, VLS array behind it (thawks only for now) and TT room behind it, with tubes angling outboard.

russi/indian/cheen subs have the smaller chin sonar under the TT room

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... s_open.jpg
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Austin »

China PLA Navy Type 039A AIP SSK submarine ( Yuan Class )

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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Eric Leiderman »

Time to start more interaction with Taiwan, Strategic and commercial. They have the best understanding of China.
Depending on how the Dragon behaves we could up this to full fledged recognisation of Taiwan as a country, closely followed by military ties.
Like how they are making us squirm. I know we have followed the One China route, but if things heat up we could change tack. (the next province being Tibet, Recognise the goverment in exile as Tibet with ambassadors etc, give it all the trappings and media coverage) we have many arrows in our quiver which can be used as pressure points if they turn the heat on. However for the next 5 years we need to consolidate,Keep the actions as small pricks, keep our heads down and let a belergent China make her bed. Let our media do all the tow tow, with leaks from relaible sources.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Kakarat »

First India should improve its formal diplomatic relationship with Republic of China (Taiwan) by opening at least a Consulate
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Austin »

China PLA Air Force HX H20 stealth bomber

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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by rkhanna »

Here's an interesting read on the China-Thailand exercise from last year:
Very interesting. Could we Extrapolate that if the Best of the PLAAF are better than the Western Avg then the PLAAF average would be similar to the Western Avg Pilot in skill?

And despite the Analog Drawbacks of the Flanker it still seems to have held its own against the Gripen.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by wig »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 805210.cms

China staging Tonkin Gulf live-firing exercises amid tension in South China Sea
China says a branch of its coast guard is holding live-firing exercises in the Tonkin Gulf amid tensions among disputants to territory in the South China Sea
The Maritime Safety Administration said ships and boats were barred from the area between the southern province of Hainan and the northern coast of Vietnam from Monday to Wednesday.
China has held several military exercises in surrounding waters since an international arbitration panel last month issued a ruling invalidating China's claim to virtually the entire South China Sea.
On Sunday, China said its planes and ships held war games in the Sea of Japan last week, during which it deployed its latest-generation frigate.
China plans joint naval exercises with Russia in the South China Sea next month in a move criticized by U.S.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by wig »

http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china ... 0W20121030

China proposes to invest something like USD 7.5 bn to manufacture jet engines. and the Chinese plan 1000+ jet fighters over the next two decades
China has designed nuclear missiles and blasted astronauts into space, but one vital technology remains out of reach. Despite decades of research and development, China has so far failed to build a reliable, high performance jet engine.

This may be about to change. China's aviation sector is striving for a breakthrough that would end its dependence on Russian and Western power plants for military and commercial aircraft.

Beijing is evaluating a 100 billion yuan plan to galvanize a disjointed and under-funded engine research effort, aviation industry officials say. The giant, state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China AVIC.L, China's dominant military and commercial aviation contractor, has been lobbying hard for the extra money, officials familiar with the details say.

AVIC, with more than 400,000 employees and 200 subsidiaries including 20 listed companies, has already set aside about 10 billion yuan of its own funds for jet engine development over the next three years.

The engine financing plan is under high-level discussion in Beijing, said Zhao Yuxing, an official at the securities office of Shanghai-listed Xi'an Aero-Engine Plc (600893.SS), a key military engine-making unit of AVIC. "What we know is our company has been included in the strategic programme, which is designed to greatly develop and support the engine industry," he said by phone from his company's headquarters in the northwestern city of Xi'an.

China's military industry as a whole has suffered from Tiananmen-era bans on the sale of military equipment from the United States and Europe. Moreover, foreign engine-makers have been loath to transfer technology. That has prevented China from taking its usual route to closing a technology gap: copying it.

Some Chinese aviation industry specialists forecast that Beijing will eventually spend up to 300 billion yuan on jet engine development over the next two decades.

"China's aircraft engines have obviously been under-invested," said Wang Tianyi, a defence sector analyst with Shanghai's Orient Securities. "One hundred billion yuan is not a huge amount of money in the engine world."

JEALOUSLY GUARDED SECRETS

While AVIC's long term priority is to develop high performance engines for military aircraft, it is also trying to design power plants for passenger aircraft in the world's fastest growing civil aviation market. Based on projected demand from Western aircraft manufacturers, engines for new passenger aircraft delivered in China could be worth more than $100 billion over the next 20 years.

"Historically, all major players in aerospace have possessed both airframe and engine design capabilities," said Carlo Kopp, the Melbourne, Australia-based founder of Air Power Australia, an independent military aviation think tank. "Until China can design and produce competitive engines, the performance and capabilities of Chinese aircraft designs will be seriously limited by what technology they are permitted to import."

For China's aviation engineers, the traditional short cuts of extracting intellectual property from foreign joint venture partners or simply copying technology from abroad have so far delivered minimal results.

Foreign engine manufacturers including General Electric (GE.N), Snecma, a subsidiary of French aerospace group Safran (SAF.PA), Rolls Royce Plc (RR.L) and Pratt & Whitney - a unit of United Technology Corp (UTX.N), jealously guard their industrial secrets, limiting the transfer of know-how and opportunities for intellectual property theft.

However, China may be poised to win access to technology from an expanding range of commercial aviation joint ventures with these companies. China's ability to develop engines for passenger aircraft could have considerable potential for technology transfer to the military, experts say.

THE BOTTLENECK IN ENGINES

Under AVIC's plan, fragmented engine research and development would be consolidated to minimize competition and duplication of effort.

A legacy of Maoist-era dispersal of defence industries, engine research institutes and aerospace manufacturing companies are scattered about the country in cities including Shenyang, Xi'an, Shanghai, Chengdu and Anshun.

AVIC plans to inject its major engine related businesses into Xi'an Aero- Engine as part of this consolidation, the listed company said in its 2011 annual report. "There is widespread consensus that engines have become a bottleneck constraining the development of China's aviation industry," the report said.

China faces a daunting challenge. Only a handful of companies in the United States, Europe and Russia have mastered this expertise.

"Modern jet engine technology is like an industrial revolution in power," said Andrei Chang, a Hong Kong-based analyst of the Chinese military and editor of Kanwa Asian Defence Magazine. "Europe, the U.S. and Russia have hundreds of years of combined experience, but China has only been working on this for 30 years."

Established manufacturers have laboured on research and development since the 1950s to build safe and reliable engines with thousands of components that function under extremes of temperature and pressure. This involves state-of-the-art technologies in design, machining, casting, composite materials, exotic alloys, electronic performance monitoring and quality control.

Since then, the big players have collected vast stores of performance and operational data from existing engines that gives them a head start in designing new versions with improved fuel efficiency and reliability that airlines now demand. And, for commercial engines, all of the design and manufacturing processes must be carefully coordinated and exhaustively documented to satisfy aviation certification authorities.

"The reason so few can do it is because it is really, really difficult," says Richard Margolis, a former regional director of Rolls Royce in northeast Asia.

High performance military jet engines are crucial to Beijing's long term plan to increase the number of frontline fighters and strike aircraft in its air force and naval aviation units. These aircraft are a key element of a long term military build-up aimed primarily at securing military dominance over Taiwan and a vast swathe of disputed maritime territory off China's east and southern coasts.

Due to the export bans on military equipment to China, Beijing has been forced to rely on imported fighters from Russia, reverse engineered copies of these Russian aircraft, and some home-grown designs. This strategy has delivered rapid results. Since 2000, China has added more than 500 advanced fighters and strike aircraft with capabilities thought to equal all but the most advanced U.S. stealth aircraft. At the same time, it has also sharply reduced the number of obsolete aircraft based on Soviet-era designs, military experts say.

MANUFACTURING PROCESS

A clear example of this progress was on display recently when a Chinese-made J-15 jet fighter practiced "touch and go" circuits on China's first aircraft carrier, the newly commissioned Liaoning. These manoeuvres suggest that J-15 pilots and crews will soon master take-offs and landings from the carrier at sea.

Foreign and Chinese military experts were quick to point out that the J-15, one of China's newest military aircraft, was powered by a pair of Russian Al-31 turbofans - they power almost all of China's frontline aircraft. Reports in the Russian media say Moscow has sold more than 1,000 engines from the A1-31 family to China with further, substantial orders in the pipeline.

While Chinese engineers have been able to reverse-engineer Russian airframes, the engines have been much more difficult to copy without access to the complex manufacturing processes. AVIC subsidiary and China's lead military jet engine maker, Shenyang Liming Aero-Engine Group Corporation, has been working on a homegrown equivalent, the WS-10 Taihang, but this power plant has so far failed to meet performance targets after testing on the J-15 and other fighters, Chinese and Western military experts say.

The Chinese military is expected to introduce another 1,000 advanced fighters over the next two decades,
according to Chinese defence sector analysts. However, anger over reverse engineering and wariness of China's growing military power has made Moscow reluctant to supply engines more advanced than the Al-31. Without imported or locally built versions of these engines, China will be unable to build aircraft that could compete with the latest U.S. or Russian stealth fighters, experts say.

While military jets are strategically important, the commercial market is potentially much bigger. Boeing (BA.N) forecasts China will need an extra 5,260 large passenger aircraft by 2031. Bombardier Inc. (BBDb.TO) projects demand for business jets will reach 2,400 aircraft over the same period. With each aircraft requiring at least two engines plus spares, total demand could reach 16,000 engines with an estimated average cost of $10 million each at current prices.

China plans to compete for some of these aircraft orders with two locally built passenger aircraft, the 90-seat ARJ21 regional jet and the 150-seat C919. GE (GE.N) will supply engines for the ARJ21. CFM International, a joint venture between GE and France's Snecma, won the contract to develop new engines for the C919. Some of these engines will be assembled at joint ventures in China.

Despite the intensified research effort and potential for technology transfer from these ventures, some experts say foreign engines will continue to rule the skies in China. "This won't change for 10 or 15 years," says Chang from Kanwa Asian Defence Magazine. (Editing by Bill Tarrant)
Kailash
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Kailash »

Amazing - they know it takes so much investment, they know there wont be any tangible benefits for the next 10-15 years. I am already confident they will deliver a world class engine within next 2 decades. Investment,patience and realistic expectations - something Indians should learn.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by hnair »

Kailash wrote:Amazing - they know it takes so much investment, they know there wont be any tangible benefits for the next 10-15 years. I am already confident they will deliver a world class engine within next 2 decades. Investment,patience and realistic expectations - something Indians should learn.
That confidence level is interesting. Now, 10-15 years ago, back in the late 1990s, we in India were told that China is in the cusp of all things good in hi-tec engines. That they are patient, well funded, has huge number of patents, focused, knows how to manufacture thin thingies and most importantly "has no western or russian vested interests" influencing their decision makers. Yet we have been hearing that the WS-10 starts thrust vectoring its turbine blades after a few 100 hours and becomes a ramjet if left untended.

They fixed their rockets, after inputs from Hughes, because American industry had an interest in heavily subsidised launches during the Iridium era. But there is no such western or russian consultancy is being heard of in the matter of aero engines yet. Nor there is a visible taste for "cheap, reliable chinese engines" in the west.

In that context, these two statements, particularly the bolded parts seem to fight against each other like a corruption accused City Mayor and Shree Xi's clique.
they will deliver a world class engine within next 2 decades
Investment,patience and realistic expectations
So if Natasha or Natalie has never been a factor that the chinese had dealt with decisively, what does Indians (who has transparent consultancy agreements with American and Europeans for Kaveri++) need to learn from them?
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by chola »

The most important part of that equation -- investment -- is not something we can "learn." There is not one general, admiral or DRDO babu not crying out for more investment.

The different is the chinis can create massive amounts of credit and we can't. What we need is smarter allocation of what credit we have. We cannot give up expended treasure haphazardly which brings us to the other difference.

The other difference is their airforce is willing to take tons of inferior engines like the WS-10 for their hundreds of flanker rip-offs. Just to establish a base that will inevitably pay off for them in the future just like like assembling iphones for a pitance has led to them dominating the global electronic parts eco-structure. The kaveri was ahead of the ws-10 a decade ago when they were both being tested in Russia and yet they have deployed hundreds of ws-10s while the kaveri is written off as the engine of the Tejas.

Now the IAF have far better foreign engines for both the Tejas MK1 and the SU-30 MKI than their chini counterparts. But the chinis has establish yet again another industrial base. Unless we go to war with them in the near future and take advantage of the better engines, in the long term we lose just like our lack of an industrial base are losing us the battle on acquiring global manufacturing jobs.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by shiv »

hnair wrote: In that context, these two statements, particularly the bolded parts seem to fight against each other like a corruption accused City Mayor and Shree Xi's clique.
they will deliver a world class engine within next 2 decades
Investment,patience and realistic expectations
So if Natasha or Natalie has never been a factor that the chinese had dealt with decisively, what does Indians (who has transparent consultancy agreements with American and Europeans for Kaveri++) need to learn from them?
This post is worth remembering. For the last decade I have been reading on BRF and Chinese sites that
  • The Chinese have successfully made a jet engine
  • The engine/s is/are in operation
  • WS 10 has come of age etc
What happened to all that?

This is not to mock the Chinese but the fact is getting a good, reliable jet engine working is not easy. Unfortunately I have heard too much self flagellation and comparison with the Chinese.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by NRao »

World class.

Which year?

The WS-10 is world class, as of , perhaps, 1960-70.

In two decades, the world class would have shifted way, way beyond today. Non-Chinese to Chinese investment ratio for engines today is perhaps 1:25. All the non-Chinese have to do is maintain a ratio where the Chinese portion is always greater than 1. And China will never catch up.

Also, in two decades China, the way they are going, should be deep in debt. China has a phantom economy.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by shiv »

Engines have galloped in the top companies even as I watched them on BRF over the last 10-15 years. The Chinese were talking about "world class" a decade ago. In the last decade we have seen engines move from powder metallurgy, to single crystal to blisk to some composite parts and some 3-D printed parts. The printing may be easy but the design is around the thermodynamics part. And after all that is done we are looking at reliability for 1000 hours and later 10,000 hours of use. And there is the "previous experience" of knowing what fails and how long it takes and having FADEC software avoid those conditions and finally a set routine for parts check and replacement of parts that have been used in other engines for 10, 20, 30 years.

Not trivial
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by JayS »

^^ Not to forget myriads of research programs US runs all the time. If you look carefully there is a continuous chain of huge number of programs related to engines alone since 1940s. For example the GTF engine family that PW now commercialized was first studied by GE/PW starting from 1970s. That time it was not technologically feasible to extract any significant improvement vis-à-vis the added complexities over existing engines. They took another road that time, but kept working on GTF on sidelines. Today PW engines are a reality after over 30yrs of development. We will see GE GTF soon enough. Another example is the variable cycle research which started in 1980s is culminating now and starting 2017 the variable cycle technology in LP system will be commercialized. We will see it in daily life may be by 2025. But while research on variable cycle tech for LP was about to be finished they launched a new program for variable cycle tech for HP system. It will mature in next 10-15 years. Thus they are sowing seeds for the next big thing today. This is all over and above the huge huge amount of industrialization RnD they are doing in their mainstream work, that Shiv is referring to above.

Its going to be really, really difficult for anyone to catch-up with Uncle Sam for quite some time with conventional ways. Only hope is some disruptive technology which could level the playing field. But sadly we are nowhere on that scene too. Even today we have no plan for future let alone efforts.
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Re: China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Post by Kailash »

Investments - why was the Kaveri not being pursued to a logical conclusion but closed down without completing the certification and further tested on a supersonic test bed like the mig29? Supposing GTRE comes up with the new 80/130KN engine, we will again be at the mercy of Russians.

When we talk of the investments, it is everything including high altitude testing facilities, a flying test beds - subsonic and supersonic, quality management and supply chains, and most importantly people who have gained the experience in entirety(research, testing, producing,maintaining and improving). There was an initiative named GATET, which I believe started around 2009/2010. I seriously thought it would be an ADA equivalent for gas turbines - an umbrella under which they take on and solve the right problems. There has been no noteworthy contribution reported from them, do they even get paid? Their entire budget outlay is Rs.78 cr, Rs 5 cr is the max they can sanction for an individual projects. Their latest extension is till October 2017.

It is about hiring consultancy when available, talent-grabbing from gas turbine majors, hiring retired folks. It is about sponsored academic research. It is also about espionage. It is about money. Agreed money may not solve everything, but money shows your seriousness. Scientist and researchers should be concentrating on how to solve the problem than playing auditors, or doing jugaad. It helps retain the best brains and get the job done here and now. Fear of failure and accountability is fine - but it should not be about money.
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