Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[arun]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/14/world ... world&_r=0

Afghanistan and Pakistan Exchange Heavy Gunfire Along Border
By ISMAIL KHAN and ROD NORDLAND JUNE 13, 2016

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Pakistani and Afghan forces exchanged heavy gunfire on Sunday and Monday in an unusually serious escalation of tensions at the border, leaving at least 13 people wounded on the Pakistani side and killing at least one Afghan police officer, according to the police and military officials in both countries.

The fighting, which began on Sunday night and resumed Monday, forced the closing of the Torkham border crossing, the busiest between the two countries.

The escalation followed the closing of the Torkham crossing last month after Afghan border security guards objected to the construction of a gate on the Pakistani side. That objection also apparently contributed to the conflict on Sunday, according to official accounts from both sides. …………{Snipped}………….

The former Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef who served as the Afghan Taliban’s ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan slams the Islamic Republic for the ongoing fracas at Torkham.

Ex-Taliban leader slams Pakistan for Torkham issue

Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef in the past had made an interesting comment on the duplicitous nature of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan thus:

“Pakistan, which plays a key role in Asia, is so famous for treachery that it is said they can get milk from a bull. They have two tongues in one mouth, and two faces on one head so they can speak everybody’s language; they use everybody, deceive everybody. They deceive the Arabs under the guise of Islamic nuclear power, saying that they are defending Islam and Islamic countries. They milk America and Europe in the alliance against terrorism, and they have been deceiving Pakistani and other Muslims around the world in the name of the Kashmiri jihad. But behind the curtain, they have been betraying everyone.

Their Islam and their jihad were to destroy their neighbouring Islamic country together with the infidels. They handed over their airports to the Americans so they could kill Muslims and destroy an Islamic country. Their loyalty to the Arabs is so great that they sold diplomats, journalists and mujahedeen for dollars. Like animals. God knows whether they will ever use their nuclear bomb to defend Muslims and Islam. They might use their weapons — as they have used everything else — against Muslims.”

[chetak]

Afghan Army‏@ArmyAFG

WARNING to Gen.Raheel !

U must STOP #Torkhamborder gate construction,otherwise I'll share our meeting details2media.


RETWEETS 189 LIKES 101

12:56 AM - 16 Jun 2016

[arun]

X Posted from the STFUP thread.

Afghanistan appears to have pulled out of the CASA-1000 electricity transmission project. The reason being “dearth of demand” in Afghanistan which will tickle me pink if it was a result of the Indian funded Salma Dam coming on stream.

It will also now be interesting to see what circuitous route the self proclaimed “Gateway to Central Asia” despite not having a border with any Central Asian Republic, the Islamic Republic Of Pakistan, will use to move electricity from Tajikistan without going through Afghanistan:

Pakistan to receive more as Afghanistan abandons share in CASA-1,000

Reaction of Casey Michael to the news of the Afghan pullout in the Diplomat is to be unsurprised and start his article with the words “For the past year, there’s been a distinct distance between the rhetoric surrounding the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade (CASA-1000) project and the unfurling realities on the ground.”:

Did Afghanistan Just Drop Out of CASA-1000?

Scepticism about CASA1000 (and TAPI) seems to quite evident.A month old article (May 08,2016) by Bruce Pannier was not very sanguine about the prospects of both deals:

The Prospects Of TAPI and CASA 1000

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s wet dream of being the thekadar controlling India’s access to Central Asia in return for toll without having a border with any Central Asian Republic, comes down with one more thud.

[SSridhar]

http://www.dawn.com/news/1265254/pakistan-cant-tolerate-increasing-india-afghan-friendly-ties-karzaiPakistan can't tolerate increasing India-Afghan friendly ties: Karzai

Former Afghan president Hamid Karzai said Pakistan does not want good relations between India and Afghanistan and wants "no bilateral trade and no access to Central Asia for India" which is unacceptable for Afghanistan.

In an interview with BBC Urdu on Thursday, Karzai claimed that India is helping Afghanistan build its infrastructure and health facilities and has "filled Afghanistan with money despite being a poor country".

"India wants to truly befriend Afghanistan and we want Pakistan to do the same," said the former Afghan president.

He said Pakistan should also become a part of the regional coalition between Afghanistan, India and Iran, but "Pakistan's condition is that Afghanistan should not have contacts with India."

"If this issue is resolved, our relations with Pakistan will improve rapidly," Karzai told BBC.

Terming the formation of Durand Line a 'result of British imperialism' in the region, Karzai said that Afghanistan has never accepted this border since 1893, nor will they ever accept it in future.

"When Pakistan came into being in 1947, they received it this way, so we are not blaming them but Durand Line is a blow which no Afghan can ever forget. We do not accept this border but will not fight over this issue," said Karzai.

He stressed that Afghanistan is a sovereign country and is not taking dictation from any other country but "Pakistan government has taken some steps on Durand Line which are angering Afghans".

When asked as to why Afghanistan does not approach UN or International Court of Justice over the Durand Line issue, Karzai said it is not an international issue but 'inheritance of imperialsm' and only the respective governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan can resolve this matter. {Karzai is wiser than Nehru}

[Falijee]

Suicide attack on minibus in Kabul kills at at least 14

A suicide attack on a minibus in Kabul has killed at least 14 people and injured several more, Afghan authorities say.
The victims were Nepali nationals on their way to the Canadian embassy where they worked as security guards.
The attacker waited for the bus as it left a compound, police said.
The blast was followed by a separate bomb attack on a market in Badakhshan province that killed at least eight people and wounded 18.

The Taliban said they carried out the Kabul bombing, the first such attack since the start of the holy month of Ramadan.
The bomb went off shortly before 06:00 local time (01:30 GMT) on a main road leading out of the capital towards the city of Jalalabad.

Peace efforts have stalled after the Taliban refused to participate in new talks with the Afghan government until foreign forces had left the country.

[Prem]

Sartaj: Afghanistan should offer Taliban something they can’t gain on battlefield
http://www.khaama.com/sartaj-afghanista ... ield-01313

The Pakistani foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz has said the Afghan government should offer Taliban something they cannot gain in battlefield in a bid to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Sartaj further added “We can only bring the Taliban on the table using our influence, but ultimately Afghanistan has to talk with them. They (Afghan government) should strengthen their position on ground and secondly they should offer them (Taliban) something which they cannot gain on battlefield and lastly, the process should be consistent.”This is not the first time Sartaj has admitted regarding Pakistan’s influence on Afghan militant groups including the Taliban group.Earlier, Sartaj said the Pakistani government could use certain leverages to encourage the Taliban group to participate in direct peace talks with the Afghan government, including some facilities the Taliban leadership uses in Pakistan such hospitals.

[vishvak]

{Karzai is wiser than Nehru}

Afghans are good at not giving an inch despite nukes/terror and forefather USA with its bases on its soil.

Notice how openly pakis admit aiding Taliban and no one complains.

[svenkat]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/Two-Indians-among-25-killed-in-Afghan-blasts/articleshow/52840999.cms

External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Vikas Swarup in New Delhi said, "We have learnt that 2 Indian nationals, Ganesh Thapa and Govind Singh from Dehradun died tragically in the blast in Kabul today morning."

[Prem]

http://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/12-n ... ide-blast/
12 Nepalis killed in Kabul suicide blast

At least 12 Nepali security guards were killed in an early morning terrorist attack in Kabul today.Taliban have claimed responsibility for the suicide blast targeting a convoy having mostly Nepali security guards who were employed at the Canadian Embassy in the war-torn nation.A source privy to the matter told this daily that the other two deceased were Indian citizens of Nepali origin.“We could confirm that only 12 out of 14 people who were killed in the attack were Nepali citizens,” MoFA spokesperson Bharat Raj Paudyal, who earlier served as Nepal’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, said.Most of the Nepali victims had served in the Nepali security forces before going to Afghanistan, according to a MoFA official.

[SSridhar]

India seeks UN sanctions against new Taliban leader - PTI

India has demanded that the United Nations slap sanctions against the new Taliban leader, Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada, in Afghanistan, saying it is “sheer folly” that the leader of a proscribed entity is not yet designated as a terrorist individual.

“It is sheer folly that the leader of a proscribed entity is not yet designated as a terrorist individual,” India’s Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin said at a Security Council debate on the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) here [United Nations] on Tuesday. Supporting New Zealand’s position that the anomaly should be corrected, Mr. Akbaruddin said the new Taliban leader should be sanctioned.

The Taliban had named Akhundzada, a conservative cleric in his 50s, as its new leader after Mullah Akhtar Mansour was killed in an American drone strike last month.

Not on any kind of terror-designated list

U.S. State Department’s Deputy Spokesperson Mark Toner had said in a press briefing then that Akhundzada was not on any kind of a terrorist designated list.

Mr. Akbaruddin further emphasised that groups and individuals perpetrating violence against the people and government of Afghanistan cannot have safe havens and should not be allowed to exercise control and wield influence over any part of Afghanistan’s territory.

“This, in our view, is critical for lasting peace in the country,” he said adding that effective implementation of the Security Council sanctions regime including the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaeda sanctions and 1988 Taliban’s regime should also be carried out “consistently and with perseverance” for it to serve as a strong deterrent to the listed entities and individuals.

‘U.N. panel taking selective approach’

Previously, India has slammed the U.N. sanctions committee for taking a “selective approach” in tackling terrorism when a technical hold was put on its application to include the name of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) chief Masood Azhar on the committee’s list of designated terrorists.

India had said in April that it finds it “incomprehensible” that while the Pakistan-based JeM was listed in the U.N. Security Council Committee as far back as 2001 for its known terror activities and links to the al-Qaeda, the designation of the group’s main leader, financier and motivator has been put on a technical hold.

Mr. Akbaruddin stressed that the Security Council needs to look into the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and the means to contain it as it could pose serious threats to the gains made by the people of Afghanistan in the last 15 years.

Worsening security situation cited

While there has been no dearth of efforts by the Afghan government and its citizens as well as by the international community, Mr. Akbaruddin voiced concern over the deteriorating security situation in the war-torn country.

“The Taliban are continuing attacks at an unprecedented rate since the beginning of the year and there is continued violence by other armed groups,” he said as he cited the U.N. Secretary General’s report that armed clashes have increased this year compared to the same period in 2015.

‘Focus on need for enhanced engagement’

“This situation has put renewed focus on the need for enhanced engagement and action by the international community,” he added.

Mr. Akbaruddin reiterated India’s belief that the path to reconciliation in Afghanistan should be through an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process respecting the red lines drawn by the country’s people and the international community, especially the ones regarding giving up of violence and abiding by the Constitution of Afghanistan. He voiced India’s commitment to help Afghanistan strengthen its defence capabilities to preserve its unity and territorial integrity, saying it is the “most important antidote” to the worsening security situation in the country.

The Indian envoy also condoled the loss of lives and property in the bomb attack in Kabul on June 20 in which around 20 people including from Nepal and India lost their lives.

Commitment to Afghanistan

Referring to the inauguration of the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam, Mr. Akbaruddin quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks that while India’s capacity may be limited but its commitment to Afghanistan is without limits.

“We are strongly committed to supporting Afghanistan in various pluri-lateral and multi-lateral fora,” he said adding that India looks forward to hosting the ‘Heart of Asia’ Ministerial Conference in December 2016.

[abhishek_sharma]

Afghanistan Is About to Cut A Bad Deal with a Bad Guy

[SSridhar]

Kabul’s doors are closing on Pakistan - Ajai Shukla, Business Line

Did Pakistan facilitate the May 21 killing of Mullah Muhammad Mansour because the Taliban chief refused to join peace talks with Kabul? Mansour’s obstinacy was, after all, preventing Islamabad from delivering on its promise to the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) to bring the Taliban to the dialogue table.

Was the drone strike that killed Mansour a wasted effort, given that his successor, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, is equally disinclined to barter away battlefield gains in a political settlement that would leave most power with the ‘puppet regime’ in Kabul? Given the Taliban’s stubbornness, did the Pentagon miss out on a heaven-sent opportunity to strike the Taliban leadership when they met to choose his successor?

The answers, while necessarily speculative, are broadly discernible from the sequence in which events played out.

Islamabad embarrassed

Three days before the attack, the Taliban had boycotted peace talks with Kabul organised in Islamabad by the QCG — which included the US, China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Since Mansour’s elevation as Taliban chief last July, this had been his consistent response to dialogue proposals, mirroring the attitude of the Taliban’s first chief, Mullah Muhammad Omar.

Embarrassed by Mansour, Pakistan’s foreign secretary, Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhary, toned down Islamabad’s previously unqualified support to the insurgent group, declaring on Friday, May 20 that Afghanistan needed to take stronger military action against the Taliban, which should also be offered “incentives” to come to the table. The next day, Mansour was killed.

Islamabad’s response to the killing was unusually muted. On Saturday, May 21, soon after the Pentagon announced the attack, a pro forma statement from Islamabad regretted the “airspace violation”. On Sunday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif issued a mild reproof from London. On Monday, America’s ambassador to Pakistan, David Hale, was handed a demarche against the “violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty”.

Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan criticised the drone strike as “totally illegal, not acceptable, and against the sovereignty and integrity of the country”. Yet, significantly, not until Thursday did the most powerful man in the land, army chief General Raheel Sharif, break his silence, asking Hale to desist from unilateral actions.

Strategic depth

New Delhi pundits are certain that the Pakistan army sacrificed Mansour to signal to other Taliban factions, and to the next Taliban chief, that bucking the Pakistan army and its powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) would incur a heavy cost.

Simultaneously, by denying any role in his killing, Pakistan could continue playing good cop to America’s bad cop, flavouring its leverage over the Taliban with a subtle touch of menace.

Pakistan’s obsession with Afghanistan stems from its conviction that India seeks influence in Kabul to ‘outflank’ Pakistan and engage it on two fronts. This stymies Islamabad’s vaguely defined notion of ‘strategic depth’ in which the military relies on Afghan territory to compensate during wartime for Pakistan’s limited geographic depth. Pakistani analysts have also rationalised the need for influence and territorial access in Afghanistan in terms of alternative havens for jihadi groups; and, incredibly, even for housing nuclear weapons beyond the range of Indian strike aircraft.

The Taliban with influence in Kabul is central to Islamabad’s project for strategic depth in Afghanistan, given that Pakistan is widely reviled amongst other groups in that country as a domineering neighbour. Even the Taliban is by no means an unquestioning proxy, preferring to follow its own interests rather than those of Islamabad.

Yet, Pakistan realistically calculates that a Taliban toehold in Kabul is its best shot at retaining leverage and serving as a check on India, which is as popular across Afghanistan as Pakistan is reviled, particularly in the north.

For this, Pakistan has translated its influence over the Taliban leadership and the Haqqani Network into membership of the QCG, from where it could influence the formation of a convenient post-conflict government in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz told a Washington audience in March: “We have some influence on them because their leadership is in Pakistan, and they get some medical facilities, their families are here. So we can use those levers to pressurise them, to say, ‘come to the table’.”

Islamabad’s undisguised opportunism suited everyone in the QCG: Kabul desperately wants a settlement with the Taliban; Beijing is backing close ally, Pakistan, to create the post-conflict stability in which China could economically exploit Afghanistan; and Washington hopes the Taliban’s inclusion in a broad-based government would provide a fig leaf of respectability to its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Upsetting the applecart

This applecart was upset by the Taliban’s flat refusal to join peace talks with Kabul, jeopardising Pakistan’s place in the QCG, and also its game plan for Afghanistan. Even if the Pakistan military did not actually pull the trigger on Mullah Mansour, the khaki-clad generals in Rawalpindi who Mansour was defying would have shed few tears.

The question of who killed Mansour has three possible answers. First, it could have been a unilateral American attack, riding on the experience gained from during years of armed drone operations that have decimated the jihadi leadership in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The Mansour strike occurred in neighbouring Baluchistan that, like FATA, would have very thin air defences, given that the bulk of Pakistan’s assets guard against pre-emptive strikes by India on the eastern front.

The second possibility is a fully Pakistani military operation. That would have required supplying Pakistan the American platforms and systems needed for unmanned strikes — unlikely, given the current trust deficit. Further, Washington knows maintaining security is difficult in the leaky Pakistani system.

The most likely possibility is a joint US-Pakistani operation. Unlike the bin Laden operation, this time American and Pakistani interests strongly converged. Both needed to send the Taliban leadership a message: comply or die. Pakistani ground intelligence would have helped place the crosshairs of an American drone on Mansour, since the CIA has no ground intelligence network in Baluchistan.

Mansour’s killing underlines that the Taliban is not so much a Pakistani proxy as an independent player guided by its own organisational interests. Proving many assessments incorrect, recent Taliban statements and actions (for example, Akhundzada’s defiant rejection of talks) suggest that most Taliban leaders still see continued battle as the route to power in Kabul, rather than negotiating with a depleting enemy.

This is not accepted by US policymakers, who allowed the Taliban factions to meet unharmed, to select a new leader who would inevitably be as recalcitrant as the last. It was an opportunity lost.

The writer is a consulting editor on strategic affairs with Business Standard, and a CASI Spring 2016 visiting fellow. This article is by special arrangement with the Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania

[kmkraoind]

Ramsy Bolton = Pakistan
Hounds = Taliban factions.

If not fed properly and his master smells blood, Taliban factions will go and devour Pakistan.

[ramana]

Looks like Shukla is in US. This explains the America is upset article in the other thread.

I don't think its the TSP that turned in Mullah Mansour.
Brian Cloughey has a different explanation in the 'poor taxi driver killed' in drone strike story.

Fourth possibility is the guards at the Baluchistan-Iran border/gate put the tracking chip on the taxi.
And US knew the signals.

[RajeshA]

Ramsy Bolton = Pakistan
Hounds = Taliban factions.

If not fed properly and his master smells blood, Taliban factions will go and devour Pakistan.

Very apt!

[Bhurishrava]

http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/out ... 98909.html

Outside powers seem to be equating with legitimate Afghanistan govt: Ex-NSA Shivshankar Menon

"We are today witness a very strange spectacle with the U.S., China and Pakistan negotiating to bring the Taliban into an Afghan government without any democratic test of their support or confirmation that they are willing to abide by the Bonn Agreement redlines for shaking violence, accepting the Constitution and cutting the ties with the Al-Qaeda for instance.

[Bhurishrava]

http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/us- ... 99983.html

US strikes Afghan Taliban targets, in debut of broader role

The US military has carried out its first airstrikes against Taliban targets in Afghanistan since President Barack Obama authorized limited, offensive operations against the insurgency earlier this month, the Pentagon said on Friday.

[SSridhar]

Sartaj Aziz on Pakistan & Taliban

Aziz said the peace process in Afghanistan was deadlocked and could take time to restart. Despite 15 years of war in Afghanistan, peace could not be restored there; it would come through dialogue. Afghan Taliban who might not be able to capture Kabul but had the ability to continue fighting. They would only agree to hold talks if they were losing the battle. {Aziz is issuing threats here}

However, he made it clear it was not in the hands of Pakistan to bring all the Afghan Taliban groups to a negotiating table. It was, however, ready to facilitate a dialogue process to achieve lasting peace in Afghanistan.

Sartaj Aziz said Pakistan had some influence over Taliban, but since the Zarb-e Azb operation, the Taliban had mostly shifted to Afghanistan and most of their fighting capability was inside Afghanistan now. Aziz said it was too early to say when the dialogue could begin again, but Pakistan would continue efforts towards that end, and talks had to be between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

[svenkat]

Afghan Army ‏@ArmyAFG Jun 24
AFG parliament & Senate have extra 100 chairs free.
Guess why? For whom?

[ramana]

K-P members after Durand Line is erased.

[member_23370]

Amen!!

[Prem]

U
Afghan Army
‏@ArmyAFG
Great news !
#India preparing the 4th Mi-25 gunship for delivery to #Afghanistan

[Karthik S]

We can export few LCH and see their performance.

[Manish_P]

U
Afghan Army
‏@ArmyAFG
Great news !
#India preparing the 4th Mi-25 gunship for delivery to #Afghanistan

Who's paying ?

[krisna]

^^^^
Believe it to be by India. The helios are the older ones in the air force.
There was some delay in sending to Afg due to lack of spare parts etc,

[habal]

isn't it fascinating that americans didn't leave anything in form of air assets behind either in Iraq or in Afghanistan ? And supposedly they have trained everyone to highest standards but no air recon or evac or attack helis sorry. No f-16's or cobras or apaches or chinooks, these are meant solely for pakistan on deferred payment or subsidy only.

[Gagan]

American maal is expensive. There are problems getting spares. Only Allah knows how Iran still manages to fly those F-14s, I suppose they have good enough industrial base and roosi help in order to do so.
US manufactured fighter planes have closely guarded IP and Tech, which they don't want to share with everyone.

[habal]

what new tech does decades old f-16 have esp in a2g mode. Supplying same to pakistan is enough for worlds premier photocopier to learn secrets on. How can they even classify afghan and iraqi army as well-trained for the job of defending their nation when they left no air support for them, yet spent trillions on the war.

Unless, they didn't want iraqi army to perform well in the first place. Ditto for afghans.

[g.sarkar]

http://thewire.in/61309/india-us-afghanistan/
India, US Collaboration In Afghanistan Could Herald Change for Region
BY ANAND ARNI AND PRANAY KOTASTHANE ON 25/08/2016 • 3 COMMENTS
If New Delhi chooses not to act as a bridge between Washington and Kabul, it will have to shoulder more responsibilities in Afghanistan on its own, for which it is unprepared.
August has been a month of interesting developments that could help fashion a new role for India in countering terrorism in Afghanistan. First, General John Nicholson Junior, commander of Resolute Support Mission and US Forces Afghanistan, visited India earlier this month and threw his weight and backed Afghanistan’s request for more helicopter gunships from India. Afghanistan’s army chief, General Qadam Shah Shahim, is also expected to raise this issue when he visits India in the last week of August.
There were significant developments on the political front too. Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai visited India in the second-half of August (his fourth visit in the last two years) and gave a string of interviews backing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reference to Balochistan in his Independence Day speech. Karzai’s emphatic comments regarding the reference to Balochistan come at a time when his country’s National Unity Government (NUG) is in paralysis and there is a chance that the arrangement may unravel by the end of September.
These developments hint at a changed political landscape with regard to Afghanistan. Nicholson’s specific demand from India for Russian-made helicopters is the culmination of a shift in the US mindset on Afghanistan. Just a few months ago, the US was wary of working with India in Afghanistan, lest it infuriate the Pakistani establishment. But things changed earlier this year when the US-Pakistan relationship started to sour. The US defence department withheld $300 million in aid from the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) on the grounds that Pakistan had not been able to deliver on its assurances to end terror in Afghanistan.
Two other incidents, which took place before the decision to withhold aid was taken, also worsened Pakistan’s case. First, French authorities filed terror charges against a Pakistani citizen, suspected of being a bomb-maker for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), in connection with the November terrorist attacks in Paris. Second, Taliban chief Mullah Mansour was killed in a drone strike near Quetta earlier this year, marking a new low for Pakistan.
The drone strikes came in the backdrop of the limited success of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group meetings — a Pakistan-led initiative that promised to end terrorism in Afghanistan. It now appears that many states, including China and the US, are on the lookout for other options where Afghan security is concerned. There is also lingering suspicion in Washington that there could be more duplicity from Islamabad in the coming months, particularly at a time when the Obama administration is in its lame duck phase. This period could go on for another year or so after that as the new administration finds its feet, effectively putting Afghanistan on the back-burner for some time.
In the current situation where the US is looking for Indian support in Afghanistan, the key questions before the Indian government are: how far do Indian and American interests align on Afghanistan’s fragile security and political situation? And how should India respond to this outreach by the US government?...
Gautam

[deejay]

^^^ Gautam Ji, wonderful link.

It is interesting to note on the repeat harping of Russian origin attack helicopters needed by Afghanistan to be supplied by India and supported by US. The US itself can very easily supply various attack helicopters but they want India to supply the Afghans. Why are they letting go an opportunity to support their MIC?

As an observer, attack helicopters in smalls nos (as many as 04 to be supplied by India) in the best of times will be of little use in the rough terrain of Afghanistan. The size of the country alone will need many more helicopters for an effective air campaign.

The time to train and develop tactics for a fairly experienced plot is around 06 months in India for just combat roles. Missiles, avionics, front guns all included, I think another 03 months will be needed. In Afghanistan, where the infrastructure may not exist, this time could be more.

The Indian Mi 25s are vintage stuff. We were retiring them. How in the world will Afghans have any decent serviceability with just 04 machines and what kind of missions will they plan?

Weapons package for the Mi 25 will be easy to deliver as long as they are unguided rocket, bombs and front gun ammo. Anything else, Russian support will be needed, IMO.

Given the above just on the attack helicopter point I have a CT. The attack helicopters are a smoke screen for actual Indian Military presence in the name of training and maintenance. We have a base in Afghanistan.

[SSridhar]

Given the above just on the attack helicopter point I have a CT. The attack helicopters are a smoke screen for actual Indian Military presence in the name of training and maintenance. We have a base in Afghanistan.

I have posted in the "Managing China Thread" a Chinese admission of a new military alliance between China, Tajikistan, Afghanistan & Pakistan and the Chinese supply of arms, training and placing advisors in Afghanistan. China is using the Xinjiang terror for this alliance and its entry into Afghanistan. India and US must collaborate on Afghanistan. There must be an unstinted collaboration from the US side.

[Prem]

Afghanistan-Iran railway construction kicks near Herat province

http://www.khaama.com/afghanistan-iran- ... ince-01855

The construction of a railway line between Afghanistan and Iran officially kicked off near the western Herat province of Afghanistan on Wednesday.According to the local officials, the construction work of the railway line in Afghanistan launched as 90 percent of the railway work inside the Iranian soil has been completed.The railway line will be established from Iran to Ghoryan district and will further go towards Zindjan district and Herat Airport.The latest development for the establishment of the railway line between Afghanistan and Iran comes as Afghanistan has been attempting to expand its regional transit reach.Earlier this year the leaders of Afghanistan, India and Iran signed the Chabahr port agreement in Tehran, the capital city of Iran.Afghanistan is expected to have sea-land access through the strategic Chabahar port in Iran by the end of this year as the work on the port already begun by a joint venture of Kandla Port Trust (KPT) and Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) last year.
Access to Afghanistan’s Garland Highway can be made from Chabahar port using the existing Iranian road network and the Zaranj-Delaram road, constructed by India in 2009.The port will be also used to ship crude oil and urea, saving India transportation costs. It will also cut transport costs and freight time for India to Central Asia and the Gulf by about a third.

[SSridhar]

India may promise more arms to Afghanistan during Ghani’s visit - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu

India is all set to scale up its military assistance to Afghanistan.

According to officials, the stepped up assistance is likely to be announced during the visit of President Ashraf Ghani next week. “A list of urgent requirements has already been handed over to which the Indian response has been positive. It will be discussed and cleared during Mr. Ghani’s visit,” diplomatic sources told The Hindu .

Mr. Ghani is expected in Delhi next Monday.

Changed policy

India, which has shied away from supplying lethal weapons to foreign militaries, changed its policy last year with the supply of four Mi-25 attack helicopters. Following this, Afghanistan, in desperate for military hardware for firepower and support in the face of increasing violence, has sought additional assistance from India. The requirements were handed over to the Indian side last week during the visit of the Chief of Afghan National Army General Qadam Shah Shahim.

Priority items on the list include utility and attack helicopters, artillery, ammunition and spares in addition help in reviving some of the Soviet era factories in Afghanistan. However, on spares and revival India has to coordinate with Russia.

While India seems to be more open in supplying lethal hardware, the equipment largely being of Russian hardware needs technical support from Moscow. This was evident in the case of Mi-25 helicopters with one of the promised four still grounded due to lack of spares which have to come from Russia.

A diplomatic source said efforts were on for a three-way discussions and this was expected to come up for discussion during Mr. Ghani’s bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

[Paul]

Hekmatyar signing agreement with Afghan government tomorrow per twitter

[Bheeshma]

ANA had wanted 105mm guns and T-55's. I hope India will supply them finally. Don't think we need spares from Russia for that. The cheetal and Mi-25's will be very useful for ANA.

[SSridhar]

Afghanistan close to peace deal with notorious warlord - AFP

Afghanistan is close to signing a peace agreement with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, President Ashraf Ghani said on Monday (Sept 12), in a landmark accord that could pave the way for the notorious warlord's political return after years in hiding.

Hekmatyar, who heads the now largely dormant Hezb-i-Islami militant group, is the latest among a series of warlords whom Kabul has sought to reintegrate into Afghan politics in the post-Taleban era.

If inked, the deal with Afghanistan's second-biggest militant group would mark a symbolic victory for Ghani, who has struggled to revive peace talks with the much more powerful Taleban.

"The peace agreement will be finalised very soon," Ghani said in his address on the occasion of the Islamic festival of Eid-ul-Adha.

"We hope for peace in Afghanistan and to end the war in the country."

Ghani's statement comes after months of negotiations with Hezb-i-Islami, which has progressed in fits and starts over differences within the government over the final draft agreement.

On Sunday, Hekmatyar's son said on Facebook the agreement had been reached but the High Peace Council, the government body responsible for negotiations, said talks were still underway.

Hekmatyar was a prominent anti-Soviet commander in the 1980s and stands accused of killing thousands of people in Kabul during the 1992-1996 civil war.

He is widely believed to be living in hiding in Pakistan, but his group claims he is inside Afghanistan.

The potential deal, which is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the security situation in Afghanistan, has sparked revulsion from human rights groups.

According to a draft agreement seen by AFP, the government will offer Hekmatyar legal immunity in "all past political and military proceedings" as well as release Hezb-i-Islami prisoners.

Hekmatyar is designated a "global terrorist" by the US and is blacklisted by the UN. The Afghan government would work towards lifting those restrictions, according to the draft agreement.

[SSridhar]

Cabinet clears extradition treaty with Afghanistan - The Hindu

In a bid to boost security and legal cooperation with Kabul, the Union Cabinet on Monday cleared the Extradition Treaty with Afghanistan for signing and ratification. The delayed treaty, which is likely to be the highpoint of President Ashraf Ghani’s visit beginning Wednesday, featured in the Joint Statement during his last visit to Delhi in 2015.

“The treaty would provide a legal framework for seeking extradition of terrorists, economic offenders and other criminals from and to Afghanistan,” a press release from the government said.

Minister of State for External Affairs Gen. (Retd.) V.K. Singh had announced in the Lok Sabha on July 22 last year that India and Afghanistan were on track to signing five agreements.

During the February visit of CEO Abdullah Abdullah, both sides sealed the MoU on visa-free entry for holders of diplomatic passports. However, the failure to conclude the motor vehicles agreement has drawn the attention of the Afghan government, especially President Ghani who has threatened to stop land-based trade between Pakistan and Central Asia if Islamabad continues to prevent Afghanistan from accessing the Indian market. Pakistan’s cooperation is vital because it is the shortest overland route between India and Afghanistan.

[g.sarkar]

http://thewire.in/65680/the-ins-and-out ... -dialogue/
The Ins and Outs of the India-US-Afghanistan Trilateral Dialogue
BY ANAND ARNI AND PRANAY KOTASTHANE ON 13/09/2016
Outlining the next steps that can help India and the US evolve a mechanism to strengthen peace building in Afghanistan.
Putting behind them an era marked by distrust and excessive wariness, India and the US have now come out in favour of combining their efforts in Afghanistan. This attempt to collaborate has been a constructive development, perhaps the only positive one, in what has otherwise been a dreadful period for Afghanistan: Taliban’s advances continue, Kabul remains vulnerable and peace negotiations remain off the table. All this, even as the National Unity Government (NUG) continues to operate in paralysis mode; there is even a possibility that this grand arrangement may unravel as quickly as September end.
In the face of such formidable circumstances, the announcement of the India-US-Afghanistan trilateral dialogue is a step that many optimists will want to cling to. The optimist’s case for the alliance is: now that the most influential and the most popular geopolitical actors in Afghanistan are finally on the same page, the situation can only improve from here on out. However, sceptics have many lingering doubts, such as: what purpose does yet another political alliance concerned with Afghanistan serve? What about this alliance will prevent the US from going back to its traditional reliance on Pakistan? And finally, a third set of detractors think that such an arrangement is likely to hurt, rather than help Afghanistan. Such groups argue that “the trilateral is a joint war command for deciding India’s course in the proxy war”, even making the egregious claim that “Afghanistan’s increasingly close ties with India are directly responsible for the Taliban’s offensives.”
To clear the air, this article tries to answer the following questions: what are the possible areas of cooperation under this trilateral? What could be the mechanisms to ensure that this arrangement is equipped to achieve its aims? And finally, what could be some other areas of collaboration, beyond the stated scope of the trilateral?
What is the trilateral about?
In what can be seen as an indication of the decided areas of cooperation, John Kerry, the US state secretary specifically outlined four areas of cooperation in the New Delhi joint press conference:
“We will restart the trilateral at the UNGA (UN General Assembly). Doing so is going to enable us to determine how best to build on the past gains of securing villages, empowering women, educating students and promoting good governance across Afghanistan.”
These issues are indeed fundamental to restoring normalcy in Afghanistan. India has already demonstrated its long-term commitment to the people of Afghanistan in some of these areas. Under the 2011 Strategic Partnership Agreement, India has provided training to the Afghan forces and recently also provided four helicopter gunships to Afghanistan. India is now Afghanistan’s fifth-largest bilateral donor with over $2 billion given to support Afghanistan’s infrastructure, engineering, training and humanitarian needs. India constructed Afghanistan’s parliament building, restored the Stor palace, built the Zaranj-Delaram segment of the Ring Road, re-erected transmission lines and aided power generation through the Salma Dam. On the human resources front, India has trained Afghan civil servants, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has trained Afghans in carpentry, plumbing and welding, while the Self Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) has educated more than three thousand Afghan women in micro enterprise. The Chabahar port promises to reduce Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistan. With such extensive experience behind it, the Indian government can assertively ramp up its contribution in mutually agreed upon areas.........
Gautam

[ramana]

I don't know how propaganda is allowed inside India. US has no interests in supporting Afghanistan. All problems originate from pet snake Pakistan.

[RoyG]

I didn't realize the extent to which the Taliban now control Afghanistan.

Been occupied w/ other things.

Ghani is clearly frustrated. He is doing some last minute dancing w/ India to maybe strengthen his hand during negotiations w/ them.

India upping the ante in Balochistan and PoK may be seen as a counterbalance but India has lost valuable time.

Overall, it's looking more like a losing battle.

https://www.stratfor.com/image/afghanis ... an-advance