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After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that.At the current rate, the fund would be depleted in mid-2017, perhaps a few months later," Ondrej Schneider, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, wrote in a note this week.The government's reserve fund is designed to cover shortfalls in the national budget at times of low oil and gas revenues.Russia's 2016 budget is based on the assumption the country would be able to sell its oil for $50 per barrel.The central bank still has $395 billion in international reserves, down from $524 billion in October 2013. The bank burned through more than $140 billion in foreign currency reserves between 2014 and 2015, trying to defend the ruble from collapsing.The strategy didn't work and the bank slowly abandoned it. The ruble dropped to the lowest ever in January, when it was trading at 82 rubles per U.S. dollar. It is now trading at 65 rubles per dollar.The slump in oil prices has hit Russia at the time it was already suffering because of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries over its role in the crisis in Ukraine.They've cut off Russia's most important companies from European financing, banned imports of certain products and froze funds of key officials.Russia retaliated by imposing import restrictions on European food products. That caused a headache to European farmers, but also pushed Russian inflation to double digit levels.
Prem wrote:The central bank still has $395 billion in international reserves, down from $524 billion in October 2013. The bank burned through more than $140 billion in foreign currency reserves between 2014 and 2015, trying to defend the ruble from collapsing.
CNN needs to get their facts right , The bank did not burn $140 billion defending rouble but the companies purchased Rouble to pay their debt , that is the reason the external debt went down 30 % in past 2 years.
Central Bank does not defend rouble , its a free floating full capital account convertible currency , its value via a viz USD and Euro is decided by market forces http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
The central bank key role is to defend inflation i.e keep it low as possible and not the currency
Gyan wrote:Russia main imports are luxury consumer goods. Guess who will get screwed if Russia is in problem.
The import content has significant gone down compared because Russia imposed import ban on food and agriculture product which put sanction on Russia , Its mostly the EU agri producers got hurt and countries in BRICS were substituted with where they had to import.
Russian finance ministry follows a very extremely conservative economic policy to the extent it can be described as lunatic where country simply print money to to cover their issues but printing money has its own consequences like we seen in Brazil now
Living within their means is the approach their follow since the 1998 crash
We were informed by the Russian Defense Ministry that these exercises will not be carried out in [disputed] areas, and a place was chosen that has nothing to do with this. Hence there is no reason for India to worry about it," Zamir Kabulov told RIA Novosti. Kabulov said Moscow had informed New Delhi of the regions where the exercises with Pakistan were planned to take place.
Manish_Sharma wrote:We can also excercise with Georgia and Ukraine, without causing any worries to putin.
Exactly. Putin is no friend of India. He sees us as a customer with no choice but funding his science projects so he doesn't have to sell them to the PRC who would reverse engineer them. The lovey doveys in India still see Russia as "taller than mountain, deeper than..." you get the picture.
Cosmo_R wrote:Exactly. Putin is no friend of India. He sees us as a customer with no choice but funding his science projects so he doesn't have to sell them to the PRC who would reverse engineer them. The lovey doveys in India still see Russia as "taller than mountain, deeper than..." you get the picture.
Right you are. US is the true friend of India. We both share democratic ideals. Ashton Carter's equation with Manohar Parrikar is promising. It is a continuation of the 'we will make India a superpower' theme first announced by Condoleeza Rice. It is also eager to teach us how to manufacture aircraft engines. Modi & Obama also share friendly vibes and Modi calls him 'Obu'. After signing LESMOA we will be free to use US bases in DG & Qatar as our own.
yes the democratic ideals are the fuel that prompt unkil to meddle in our local affairs so that the south of asia remains a beacon of free ideas and not become a fascist state. but the bear has now wandered over from his frozen lands to the humid tiger territory to play with the pig, that is also not acceptable.
Time of change is always a risky one. We are in such a time. Even small things alter the fate of nations. It also has done drills in SCS area also along with China. Russia's action is doing this kind of stuff and also its closeness to China is quite worrisome. We have not taken the anti-Russia state in the case of Crimea, and I do not remember anything of anti-Russia in our conduct. True that we have started buying weapons etc. from the US and other nations. But that can not be an anti-Russia thing. Even the logistics agreement with the US may not be a directly anti-Russia thing and is in the card for many years.
Putin's Russia will do anything to appease China. China is cleverly trying to pull Russia in ChiPak alliance. Will be interesting to see how Putin plays the game.
saurav_jha wrote:Putin's Russia will do anything to appease China. China is cleverly trying to pull Russia in ChiPak alliance. Will be interesting to see how Putin plays the game.
Agree. Participation in SCS drills is not needed. Yet Russia did that and signalled that it is in the side of China on that issue. It is the proof of the level to which Russia will go to appease.
saurav_jha wrote:Putin's Russia will do anything to appease China. China is cleverly trying to pull Russia in ChiPak alliance. Will be interesting to see how Putin plays the game.
saurav_jha wrote:Putin's Russia will do anything to appease China. China is cleverly trying to pull Russia in ChiPak alliance. Will be interesting to see how Putin plays the game.
No he wont. Any evidence of this 'appeasement'?
No Concrete evidence. But signs are definitely there. SCS Drill (right after the decision came out),Unequivocal support for Chinese stance regarding SCS decision during G-20, First time drill with Pakistan, Talks of Su-35 sell to Pak... Signs are there. We may choose to ignore them.
Well yes Russia is acting like an independent sovereign nation who has its own self interests. Based on the implicit acceptace of the earlier statement, they are behaving normally. Did Russia state the UNCLOS decision against China was wrong? I do not remember reading this anywhere. I am happy to be corrected. They can sell to who ever is willing to pay them the money they need. So Pakis can get SU-35 at the full factory price. Can Bakis afford this? No. Drills will Bakis are just that.
panduranghari wrote:Well yes Russia is acting like an independent sovereign nation who has its own self interests. Based on the implicit acceptace of the earlier statement, they are behaving normally. Did Russia state the UNCLOS decision against China was wrong? I do not remember reading this anywhere.
HANGZHOU (Sputnik) – Russia supports China’s stance on the South China Sea court dispute and opposes any third-party interference, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday.
"Chairman Xi Jinping and I have developed very trusting, I would say friendly, relations. But he never – I want to emphasize this – never approached me requesting to somehow comment, somehow intervene in the matter," Putin told reporters. "We of course have our own opinion on this matter. It is that, first of all, we do not interfere and we believe that any intervention of a non-regional power goes only to the detriment of settling these issues. The intervention of third-party non-regional powers, in my opinion, is harmful and counterproductive," he added.
On July 12, the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that Beijing has no legal basis to claim historic rights to South China Sea resources and has violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines in the country's exclusive economic zone. The ruling came after Manila filed a case in January 2013 accusing Beijing of violating the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"We stand in solidarity and support of China's position on this issue – not to recognize the decision of this court… This is not a political position, but purely legal. It lies in the fact that any arbitration proceedings should be initiated by the disputing parties, while the arbitration court should hear the arguments and positions of the disputing parties. As you know, China did not address the Hague arbitration and no one listened to its position there. How can you recognize these decisions as fair? We support China's position on this issue," Putin stressed.
Beijing’s territorial claims to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, which are believed to be rich in oil and gas reserves, run counter to those of the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.
Last edited by Viv S on 19 Sep 2016 19:08, edited 1 time in total.
which is what ,drills? is it different when they do it with us? is it somehow special .what's with the spin just accept the fact that we are diverging on many fronts and/or playing hardball with each other
Though both Moscow and Beijing oppose internationalization of the territorial disputes, they are doing so for different reasons. China wants to be the strongest party in the dispute, preferably one-on-one with any other claimant. For Beijing, internationalization also includes legal arbitration and an increase in the all-out China-bashing that the smaller states have purportedly been engaging in with the help of the extra-regional states.
Russia, on the other hand, opposes internationalization because this is quite within the overall philosophy of contemporary Russian foreign policy. Moscow has repeatedly criticized other states, especially the United States, NATO and the EU, for interference in other states’ affairs – in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and elsewhere. Russian policymakers most likely see internationalization as the first step toward interference.
The South China Sea is not a priority for Russian foreign policy. Burdened by economic difficulties at home, continuing engagement in Syria, and conflicting interests with the West, Russia is focusing its renewed attention in Asia on China and does not appear too eager to get involved in the South China Sea territorial dispute. One can argue that Moscow’s main interest here lies in preserving the bilateral relations and walking the line between two of its strategic partners – China and Vietnam.
‘A strong fist’: Russia will revive the KGB and its all-encompassing powers, newspaper says
Marc Bennetts, The Telegraph | September 20, 2016
A police officer stands on guard in Moscow's subway, Russia, Thursday, March 24, 2016
Pavel Golovkin / Associated PressA police officer stands on guard in Moscow's subway, Russia, Thursday, March 24, 2016
The KGB is to be revived under a massive shake-up of Russia’s security forces, a respected business daily newspaper has reported.
A State Security Ministry, or MGB, would be created from the current FSB, the Federal Security Service, and would incorporate the SVR foreign intelligence service and the FSO state guard service, under the plans. It would be handed all-encompassing powers once possessed by the Soviet-era secret police, Kommersant newspaper said, citing security service sources.
It would also oversee the prosecution of Kremlin critics, a task currently undertaken by the Investigative Committee. The Kremlin has not commented.
The MGB is expected to be created before the 2018 presidential election, at which Putin could secure a fourth term.
Putin’s grip on Russia so tight he’s willing to let exiled adversary coach candidates in parliamentary election
Putin served as a KGB officer in East Germany and is also thought to have been responsible for keeping tabs on dissidents in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg.
He headed the FSB from July 1998 to August 1999, before becoming prime minister, and has often joked that there is no such thing as a former KGB officer.
Sergei Goncharov, who served in Russia’s now disbanded Alpha counterterror unit in the 1990s, told state media that the creation of the MGB would provide Russia with a “strong fist.”
The MGB was the name of the state security apparatus for eight years of Joseph Stalin’s bloody rule. It was renamed the KGB after Stalin’s death and disbanded in 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The report came less than 24 hours after Putin’s ruling United Russia party strengthened its grip on the Duma, the lower house of parliament, taking three quarters of its 450 seats. The two anti-Putin parties on the ballot — Parnas and Yabloko — failed to overcome the 5 per cent threshold to enter parliament.
The election was marred by apathy and allegations of vote-rigging. Turnout in Moscow was just 35 per cent, the lowest since Putin came to power in 2000.
“A record low turnout. Democrats get less than 3 per cent. The MGB is to be recreated. Welcome to the brave new world,” said Vladimir Kara-Murza, the deputy leader of Parnas.
Russian-Indian exercises "Indra-2016" will be held from September 23 to October 2,
The army and the military-industrial complex September 21, 10:11 the UTC + 3
For maneuvers involved 500 troops from both sides and up to 50 units of armaments and military equipment, the UAV detachment, as well as assault and army aviation Eastern Military District
"The main intent is to create a joint doctrine grouping units of the Eastern Military District and the Indian armed forces to conduct operations to detect, block and eliminate conditional groups of terrorists and illegal armed groups using aviation and artillery units," - said the representative of the Vladimir Matveev spokesman.
Total to maneuvers involved 500 troops from both sides and up to 50 weapons and military equipment, a detachment of unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as assault and army aviation of the Eastern Military District, said Matveyev.
On the other hand, before India had even opened her mouth, the US made it clear that any military move by India to cross the international borders would be condemned. Well, this is the same country which literally left no stone unturned and flattened an entire country to search out a terrorist.
So, while we were engaged in a futile exercise of wooing the US by planning to buy everything from pins to elephants from it, were we losing our only militarily strong and tactically placed all-weather friend and a partner in several defence ties?
Perhaps it is time for Mr Modi to realise that his US visits are a sheer waste of time and do nothing except make him feel good that a country that barred his entry for nine years now welcomes him twice a year.
Obama, Bush, Clinton or Reagan, everyone knows India is a country which needs to keep feeling that it is a "developing nation" for life because there's no market greater than India's to dump foreign goods.
This is just the way Russia has made India realise that their friendship is not to be taken for granted.And thus, after giving India the lesson it had to learn, Russia has given her another chance to renew its relations. The only use of Pakistan for Russia is to bring back India's attention. And Russia had every right to do so. That it has still not given up on India is clear.
Russia is one nation that is still without a friend. It is neither European nor Asian. It is further away from the US. So if there's one nation from whom India may get a fair deal, it is Russia - a friendless country.
And thus, the Russian statement is to be read thoroughly and carefully. When they say they are "very concerned about the terrorist attacks near the Line of Control" and that they were concerned by the fact that "...the army base near Uri was attacked from Pakistani territory," are we listening?
There is a huge rift between Pak govt and US GOTUS
This is unnatural since Pak is a client state of US and controls Pak. Pak is n armed country
Russia is taking advantage of this situation to become closer to Pak Govt. China anyway has already entered Pak.
Pak needs some adult supervision.
'
This is a rivalry between Russia/China on one side and US on the other. Russia China are preventing US to enter the Eurasia landmass.
AfPak area was under US control for the last 25 years. First time China is inside Af Pak. Russia is getting access to Pak since the last time they were inside Afghanistan.
Pak hasn't the moolah to buy Ru arms in any significant quantity.Indo-Russian arms deals on the table waiting to be signed are worth at least $15-20B.The GOI needs to understand who its true friends are.
Modi's one sided love for US is vomit inducing to say the least. Perhaps a case of Stockholm Syndrome? Nothing else explains his moronic behaviour wrt US - hugging, shedding tears on FB campus, over the top importance to US' tech cos like Apple, FB, Google when they are pretty much extension of the same US state which banned Modi for years and regularly spit on our faces.
In the current crisis there is only one country that can bail us out of most urgently needed mil eqpt. as 75% of our weapon systems are of Sov/Ru origin!
The sooner the unhealthy "tilt" towards Uncle Sam is restored to the "vertical",the better.Our absence from the NAM meet also shows how we are forgetting our old friends,exceptionally valuable right now when we are embarking upon a global diplomatic offensive. WE are abandoning NAM leadership to be taken over by the Chinese! How myopic are our MEA eunuchs.
Russian parliamentary election produces supermajority for pro-Kremlin United Russia party, facilitating policy continuity
Elena Ostanina and Alex Kokcharov - IHS Jane's Intelligence Weekly
22 September 2016
Key Points
A supermajority in Parliament allows the Kremlin to change legislation as it sees fit.
Large-scale protests are unlikely given the low level of public interest in current political changes and the impact of prison sentences after the 2011-2012 riots.
There is growing likelihood of an early presidential election, possibly in the second half of 2017.
EVENT On 18 September 2016 Russia held a parliamentary election in which the governing pro-Kremlin United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya, ER) party achieved a record of 343 out of 450 seats providing it with a constitutional majority.
After large-scale protests in Moscow in 2011-2012, when voters protested against alleged electoral irregularities and fraud, Russia has changed its election system from a proportional to a mixed system.
Russia contingent of 200 infantry just landed in Pakistan for joint exercises which will continue till 7-October 2016. I thought the drill had been cancelled. WTF
Modis US tilt is costing us big big time.The only reason India could do the 1971 was because Soviet agreed to keep China at bay.The Americans will never agree to do it and seems we are losing the Russians.Bad Bad policy by Modi.You cannot push away your only Mutual Defence partner to strike a friendship with US.
The Baki media was gaga with news for last 6 months that Pak is getting space in Russia and most of us chose to ignore it.Now we are seeing the effects.
Looks like ATM both India and Pakistan are exercising with Russia , with Russian team in Pakistan and Indian team in Russia , What an Irony !
Russian military officials arrived in Pakistan to participate in the teaching of "Friendship-2016" https://ria.ru/defense_safety/20160923/1477674506.html
"Yes, (the war profits), exercises will be held in the northwest Pakistani province of Punjab", - told RIA Novosti in the embassy.
The arrival of the Russian military also spokesman for Pakistan's army, General Asim Bajwa.
"Group structure Russian ground troops arrived in Pakistan for the first Russian-Pakistani exercises, which will last two weeks from September 24 to October 10," - said in a statement Bajwa.
At the same time, the press service of the Southern Military District of Russia reported that the exercise will be completed on 7 October. The embassy is not able to specify the information about the date of completion of maneuvers.
"Today the aircraft of military transport aircraft IL-76 in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to participate in the first joint Russian-Pakistani tactical exercise" Friendship-2016 "arrived troops of the Southern Military District", - reported the press service of the district.
It is noted that the military exercises between the two countries will exchange experience and work out cooperation in carrying out combat training tasks in the conduct of conventional military operations in the mountains, in particular, for the destruction of conventional illegal armed groups.
According to RIA Novosti the head of the Second Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Zamir Kabulov, Moscow sees no reason for concern in New Delhi about the upcoming Russian-Pakistani teachings, they will not be carried out in areas that are the subject of a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. Kaboulov noted that Moscow "certainly", informed the Indian side about the areas for the upcoming exercises and the matter "under no circumstances" will not affect the conduct of the upcoming Russian-Indian summit and the BRIC summit.
"In Primorye, at the site Sergeyevsky opening ceremony of the Russian-Indian joint military exercises" Indra-2016 "The ceremony lasted more than two hours during his state flags and sang the hymn countries were raised -.. Participating in maneuvers solemn march in the same order. by field passed the parade ground soldiers TSBs and Indian armed forces, "- said Matveyev.
According to him, all the exercises involved more than 500 soldiers from both sides and up to 50 units of infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, T-72 tanks, multiple rocket launchers BM-21 "Grad", car-terrain technology, detachment of unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as assault and army aviation TSB.
The troops and the forces of the Armed Forces BBO in the short term will be involved in two major exercises with the Indian armed forces, "Nevi Indra-2016" with the participation of the Pacific Fleet and "AviaIndra-2016", which will involve the air force and air defense military district.
Russian-Indian anti-terror exercises conducted since 2003. Previous joint maneuvers with participation of BBO troops passed in 2013 at the site Mahajan in India.
Look at this video - Modi waits & waits till crowd clears, to meet Obama and then keeps butting in while he is meeting other leaders. This is not normal behaviour. Why is he so enamoured with an outgoing President of a semi-hostile Nation state?
Chandragupta wrote:Look at this video - Modi waits & waits till crowd clears, to meet Obama and then keeps butting in while he is meeting other leaders. This is not normal behaviour. Why is he so enamoured with an outgoing President of a semi-hostile Nation state?
Modi as a personality is driven by Praise and looking for Self Praise always and is Media Friendly and attracted towards it.
Foreign Intelligence of nation study such behaviour of leaders and then use it for its own goals , I am sure CIA must have tutored Obama on how to deal with Modi how to say the right word and keep him attracted towards him.
In the same way Putin is more business like personality who is not attracted by media or praise and works the way he does , He must have been tutored by his on SVR/FSO on how to deal with foreign leaders ,I recollect the recent meeting between Putin and Obama where they were staring with each other and looking into each others eye with a hand shake , same for CIA/Secret Service for Obama
I read similar handshake between Regan and Gorbachev where it was mentioned that CIA/KGB tutored their respective leaders on how to deal with deep stare and even firm handshake even things like how firm the hand should be held and how many seconds the handshake and stare would last etc as they are meant to intimidate the other and it helps in negotiations and future relationship etc
Intelligence Agency in West and Russia atleast tutor their leaders for such small gesture and how to deal with it.
In previous times such an exercise would never have been contemplated let alone happen! it shows how much the relationship has been eroded and a not too gentle reminder to PM Modi as to where his true friends are. This is probably why the Pakis are so gung-ho about being ready for any Indian attack as they think they have the Russians on their side as well as the Chinese. The US has time and time again let down its closest friends and dictators whom it supported like the Shah of Iran,the S.Vietnamese,Noriega,Saddam,Ghadaffi,etc.Those who thought it would come rushing to its aid like the UKR in recent times have been gravely disappointed.Why the EU is now contemplating its own mil force.Let's see whether we will singe the Paki beard while the exercises are on or wait for them to end...or are we going to see yet another capitulation to Pak as time passes.
