Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 10 Oct 2016 09:10

HRC is a combination of Maywati and Mamta Banerjee. Trump is most correct, but alas he shall lose. At best he gets 235-240 EVs.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 10 Oct 2016 09:25

SNL's having a field day. And Kate McKinnon doing Hillary Clinton is just priceless.

Trump Apple-o-gizes - https://vimeo.com/186339696 (fixed)

Kellyanne's day off - https://vimeo.com/186340501

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 10 Oct 2016 15:11

Gus wrote:Trump came out swinging and landed many. Hilary was defending most of the time and had trouble which accusations to respond to as Trump rattled a dozen Everytime he spoke.

His base would be delirious. And he may have stopped the bleed. But he is not going to reverse it.

His offense was a lot meant to sure up the core base (which is not going anywhere no matter what he says, does or what shows up) or so it seems but I don't think he has significantly moved the needle on undecideds (she probably didn't do much either) as we may well find out in the coming days. Both YouGov and CNN ORC have HRC winning the debate but both captured the feeling that Trump performed better than many expected him to.

The Pre-Pu**y gate polls that came out this weekend are probably capturing the damage done through the twitter rants and subsequent talking points driven attack on Machado..CBS Yougov has Clinton up by 4 in OH, 4 in WI, and 3 in FL. While we'll need more than just one poll but if the trends are true, those are some remarkable numbers to have given that most of the polling was prior to his video release and the subsequent 30+ GOP politicos deserting him.

I think its now pretty clear that the Access Hollywood tape isn't the only one like that, or the most damaging one that exists out there and I think some will slowly come out over the next week or two.

@Mort, 230 EV at the moment is a little stretch in my opinion. PEC has him at 212, I predict 217 but who knows since HRC is also a very very week candidate and this being a war of attrition. I'm focusing on NC, FL, CO and OH and how they move in the polls post the video. If they DO move significantly, and more videos are out there then HRC may well do better than Obama did in 2012. While Trump has done plenty to hurt his chances in this election, what the video did was put a lot of fear in the minds of a lot of folks interested in seeing the GOP keep the Senate. While new polls will be out on Tuesday and Thursday, I wouldnt be surprised if the two senate races in NH and FL have gotten a lot closer because of this. If this continues expect OBAMA and co to focus more on the senate races and that could boost some of the less likely dems in the race.

Here is PolitiFact's fact checking on the debate -

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... al-debate/

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 10 Oct 2016 17:18

I think the woman mentioned in the tape will come out too. I am surprised nobody asked him who he is referring to.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 10 Oct 2016 17:21

Game theory hat;

Common Knowledge (CK) today- Trump broke the Republican party
CK today- Trump is brash, arrogant, sexist

CK tomorrow- Hillary broke the Democratic party
CK tomorrow - Hillary is brash, arrogant, sexist

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 10 Oct 2016 17:28

Gus wrote:I think the woman mentioned in the tape will come out too. I am surprised nobody asked him who he is referring to.

She has

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 10 Oct 2016 18:45

trump strategy was simple - whenever he was asked a tough question - he would say one line about it and in the next line itself start attacking clinton with a barrage of accusations, despite it being tangential or completely disconnected from question.

hilary struggled - answer the question or respond to accusations. in this format, it is actually hard to refute somebody point by point in 2 minutes, as one has to go into details and that is fraught with danger of rambling and losing the audience and risk saying something that can be damaging as well.

they should have let the questioner have the last word - and most of them would have said "but you did not address my question at all" and that would have forced the candidates to address just the question.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Oct 2016 22:44

Foreign Policy backs Clinton, says Trump greatest threat to US

Backing a presidential candidate for the first time ever, the prestigious Foreign Policy magazine has endorsed Hillary Clinton as the next US president and said that a Donald Trump presidency is the "greatest threat" facing the country.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Oct 2016 00:41

Asian-American Voters Are Diverse But Unified Against Donald Trump

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 11 Oct 2016 02:10

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/proj ... p-prophecy

Molly Worthen in the NYT: "The Prophet in His Tower", excerpt:

Mr. Trump seems certain that he, himself, is the Messiah, so I doubt he has much use for prophecies concerning the Second Coming. Still, he reminds me of preachers like the Anglo-Irish evangelist John Nelson Darby, who came to the United States in the 1860s to peddle a complicated method of reading the Bible as a codebook. Many scriptural verses had what he called a “double character,” a “language of symbols.” Those who cracked the code could map prophecy onto geopolitics to reveal God’s hidden intentions in world wars, the identities of leaders who might be the Antichrist or the Beast, and — most important — to discern when Christ himself would show up to battle Satan and his forces.

The genteel theologians of the elite seminaries scoffed at Darby and his followers — just as the liberal elites today scoff at Mr. Trump. If the internet had existed in the 19th century, they would have set up a Bible fact-checking website and pedantically directed their followers to it, as Hillary Clinton did last night.

Yet Darby’s ideas spread like wildfire. The liberal elites asked then, as they do now: How can this be?

Darby, like Mr. Trump, had a genius for giving people with little education and a lot of grievance a sense of control in a chaotic world. The late 19th century was a time — like today — when native-born white Americans worried about their eroding cultural authority and the growing diversity of their country. Modern capitalism was squeezing out old ways of life.

Darby’s message was, in essence: Yes, you’re right, the world is going to hell, and I’m the one who really understands why. All those theologians with fancy degrees and politicians who look down on you, who think they’re running the world — they’re frauds. They don’t get it, but I do. If you join me, you’ll join the remnant of the saved, the few “who have ears to hear.”

Darby was savvy. He never made the mistake of predicting a date for Jesus Christ’s return, a concrete fact that might, eventually, hold him accountable to reality.

Last night, as Mr. Trump paced around and evaded the moderators’ follow-up questions on his health care plan, tax reforms and foreign policy, he confirmed that he, too, understands that a prophet must avoid too much precision. For his supporters, dark divinations are more powerful than facts.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Oct 2016 03:00

A great find. History does repeat itself, under some circumstances. But a very true characterization of Mr. Trump.

well, at least Mr. Darby had read the Bible................ GBHS.

The problem with Mr. Trump is that his true nature is very abrasive. He does not like being told what to do. Cannot negotiate (which to him is being what to do), thus likes to dictate. He has never dealt with "Trade" and business dealings are not "trade". As a result he is very used to mistreating people (of course he does not even believe he is mistreating) - just his DNA. Dogs bark, cats meow and Trump orders - simple as that.

He has done only that all his life.

he is doing that to everyone within his party as we type. He himself says: retaliate. And, he will do it.

That is what he will do to leaders of other nations, negotiators (he has said that, if others do not agree, he walks out) and anyone else.

People are going to get a rogue man, who currently is under some wrap in order to get elected to the Presidency. That wrap cannot last to much longer.

saip · Post by **saip** » 11 Oct 2016 03:12

After watching the debate last night, I was reminded of a question I heard several decades ago and that too about US elections:

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton went for a swim. Both drowned. Who was saved?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Oct 2016 04:40

Just for kicks.

All market metrics point to Clinton win, except one

Also overheard. If Trump were to win, his older son intends to run for the mayor of NYC.

There you have it.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 11 Oct 2016 12:07

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Oct 2016 15:43

NRao wrote:

A great find. History does repeat itself, under some circumstances. But a very true characterization of Mr. Trump.

well, at least Mr. Darby had read the Bible................ GBHS.

The problem with Mr. Trump is that his true nature is very abrasive. He does not like being told what to do. Cannot negotiate (which to him is being what to do), thus likes to dictate. He has never dealt with "Trade" and business dealings are not "trade". As a result he is very used to mistreating people (of course he does not even believe he is mistreating) - just his DNA. Dogs bark, cats meow and Trump orders - simple as that.

He has done only that all his life.

he is doing that to everyone within his party as we type. He himself says: retaliate. And, he will do it.

That is what he will do to leaders of other nations, negotiators (he has said that, if others do not agree, he walks out) and anyone else.

People are going to get a rogue man, who currently is under some wrap in order to get elected to the Presidency. That wrap cannot last to much longer.

The wrap is already off. The last month will be a Trump-Bannon show with the campaign essentially being an extension of Breitbart's style and playing to their base in order to pander to its millions of die-hard followers that as Trump put it - wouldn't abandon him even if he shot someone on 5th Ave. What remains to be seen is the extent to which Bannon is able to sink the GOP..Does the senate flip? How significantly will the majority in the house be eroded?

And of course, where does the train go after the election? A new media-network? Breitbart TV?. Some have speculated about this and a Trump-Bannon-Ailes-Hannity led effort doesn't look that far fetched of an idea.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/p ... ump-229571

Even Frank Underwood has something to say about this

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 11 Oct 2016 17:47

http://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin- ... nik-508635
Summary: story damaging to Clinton appears in Russian press. Story is manifestly false and is withdrawn. But Trump appears in his next rally with Russian story.

This is not funny. It is terrifying. The Russians engage in a sloppy disinformation effort and, before the day is out, the Republican nominee for president is standing on a stage reciting the manufactured story as truth. How did this happen? Who in the Trump campaign was feeding him falsehoods straight from the Kremlin? (The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment)

.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Oct 2016 20:04

David Stockman Says Election is Over , Hillary will be the President but she will be crippled , Watch the Interview

David Stockman: Media destroyed Donald Trump as a candidate

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Oct 2016 20:26

The media created Donald Trump during the primaries and the earned media charts reflect that. Many warned that as this narrows down to a couple of folks the same media would destroy him using the same outlandish rhetoric that he cannot resist even when slaved to a teleprompter. He turned the election cycle into a reality TV show and the media is/was more than happy to play along.

However, to subscribe to the "only-media" argument one would have to turn a blind eye to the things that have come out of his own mouth. The media isnt the reason why republicans are choosing to not vote for him (most have been well inoculated to the existence of the "liberal media" ), or even worst jumping ship to support a candidate that they have hated for the last 2 decades if not more. It wasnt like the trumpanzees weren't warned..literally the very first question he was asked on the debate stage was concerning his attacks on women..More than one candidate warned, even during the GOP debates that the same liberal media that was building him up through earned media would skewer him later...

Additionally, even though he denies being a journalist, when reffreing to 'Media' one cannot also neglect Sean Hannity, and how Trump almost always got an hour worth of free media covreage on his show the night before each primary. One can also not discount the alt-right and the conservative media such as Drudge, Breitbart etal and the evangelical networks. He has the head of Breitbart running his campaign, and he was and is still being advised by Roger Ailes his longtime freind. Sean Hannity even paid out of his own pocket to have one of Trump's shortlisted VP candidates fly on a private jet to meet with him in NYC. The media does not prevent him from releasing his tax-returns, and they haven't falsly edited his tapes to make his words sound different. The media has not made him completely make up facts and continue to rely on debunked theories and assertions in front of his supporters.

Hillary is an extremely weak and vulnerable candidate. He should be way up in the polls..Plenty of folks running from his own party would have been had he not masterfully maniplated the media to his own advantage. The problem is that Trump is as much if not more flawed a candidate who has always planned on embracing the populist message (look at his rhetoric decades earlier, when he planned on running) and making everything about himself. It isnt the media that has been preventing him from pivoting to a general-election campaign which he should have done had he been smart and actually listened to someone besides the self-confessed perfectionist inside his head.

Nate Silver puts it best in his tweet :

Doubling down on a loyal 35% of the electorate is an uncannily brilliant strategy in a 17-way primary but not looking so hot in the general

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how ... the-media/

The Media Created Trump—and Will Destroy Him, Too
His reliance on relentless coverage could doom his campaign.

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 11 Oct 2016 20:30

brar_w wrote: It wasnt like the trumpanzees weren't warned.

Trumpanzees and Clingons. We're screwed.

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 11 Oct 2016 20:35

BTW Reagan had no emotions. He was completely hollow, he could not even show any emotions when Nancy reagan was diagnosed with breast cancer.

He also could not distinguish between reality and fiction.

Massa has had worse presidents than whoever will be this time around, but it never had such a shallow pool of $hit for candidates

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Oct 2016 21:18

Twitter RELEASE: The Podesta Emails Part 3

https://twitter.com/wikileaks

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 11 Oct 2016 21:19

reg the 17 odd primary pool, all of them were so ridiculously far out on at least a few major issues that they would never get enough votes from center. the social conservative with the 'punish abortion, roll back LGBT' stuff, the fiscal conservatives with the 'trickle down economics, roll back healthcare etc' stuff, the war hawks with the 'bomb everybody' stuff etc.

the reality is - no current republican can hope to get enough of the base to clear the primaries and still get enough of the center.

the blame should go to the fox, breitbart etc eco system that covered trump breathlessly instead of just boycotting him from the get go.

what was the big need to get the base excited to vote anyways with trump as the face and voice for them ...they will all turn up anyways to vote against hilary!!!

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Oct 2016 21:23

The word I've heard repeated among current GOP and Ex-GOP leaning friends is that many in the GOP prefer to run the FOX/Talk-Show Radio-Campaign. This is more true in the senate/house especially since the rise of the tea-party movement but with Trump and many others that ran, it has also come to the mainstream. As Max Boot put in the article I had posted earlier, the mouthpiece has now become the intellectual driving force, setting the agenda and dictating the pace.

It may work in the House due to gerrymandering and it may resonate in some key Senate races but the majority of the electorate does not subscribe to the views of the very vocal, and conservative-media_blessed faction of the GOP. The Dems too aren't immune to the extreme left dictating their candidate's policies and rhetoric but at least in this election cycle, the super-delegates have kept them insulated them to some extent...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Oct 2016 21:29

It could be a work to finish the Republicans once and for all.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Oct 2016 21:43

This has been happening within the GOP for many years and it will take many more to fully play itself out. What Trump has started is not going to go away if he looses. His penchant for media-coverage and the need for him to stay in the news for others around him (the Bannon's of the world) means that this Trump_coalition of some republicans, the alt-right fringe, and independents/democrats is likely to stay a cohesive voting block that would continue to lean GOP and as a result would continue to influence their internal selection process. This is something that they would have to grapple with for many years to come. The Dems aren't immune to this either and have had their fair share of fielding un-electable general election candidates. The idea of dropping super delegates doesn't look so smart now!

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2 ... ite-house/.

The party’s [Republican] presidential candidates have lost the popular vote five out of the last six times.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 11 Oct 2016 22:10

One lesson is that the Republicans have thrived on playing to the worst instincts for too long. This latest debate REALLY plumbed new depths - the Moderators were the most extreme, in focusing entirely on garbage questions - Trump actually tried his best to keep to important issues until he found that he had to turn and slap the opponent and the "Moderators". Point is that everything Trump said was either true or close to being true when one listened carefully and thinks about it - and the exact opposite is the case with Clinton. And that is a losing recipe with the modern American electorate - DumbAsia.

Maybe a return to civility and substance? Or a slide into chaos and Pakistan-type kleptocracy? It would have to start with the Republicans cleaning house: get rid of the extreme T-Party Hitler Jugend, the Anti-Abortion hallelujahs, the anti-immigrant bigots, the rest of the bigots, and retain the traditional core: the Arms Lobby, Wall Street and those in favor of Getting Needless Government Off Our Backs. Trouble is that that simple notion has degenerated into contempt for the Constitution.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Oct 2016 22:26

From the India-US thread:

IndraD wrote:With comments like these Trump is not going far and certainly deep security apparatus of Khan land will kick him in his butt Trump's praise of Russia, Iran and Assad regime riles GOP experts

The problem with Trump is that he is running his campaign the way he runs his business. He is more likely to band with his opponents to get one of his goals knocked out and then regroup.

however, he has said he will fire some of the top Generals. He has the leadership within his party up in arms. Most of the people could be opposed to him (i which case we do not have to worry). And, he has back peddled on most top issues - I have not heard of the wall for eons, Muslims are now OK provided they self report, he proposes to tax anything that is imported, etc.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 11 Oct 2016 22:51

Back in the Apprentice days, Trump used to say something to the effect - "There is no such thing as negative publicity. All publicity is good and positive only..".

His campaign during the primaries was proving that concept. However doesn't seem to be the case now.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Oct 2016 23:08

The thing is that it works for his base, and particularly the most vocal elements of it. As Nate Silver mentioned in his tweet it is/was a great strategy in the internal selection process, but it will not be suffecieint in the GE because GE campaigns are about coalitions and reaching out to independents and making up with those that didn't support you in the primaries.

It as a strategy is great if you need to keep 30 or so million people charged up and then start a right of Fox media network. Between Banon, Hannity, Aisles, Stone, and Bossie he has what is required to make that happen.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Oct 2016 23:19

GShankar wrote:Back in the Apprentice days, Trump used to say something to the effect - "There is no such thing as negative publicity. All publicity is good and positive only..".

His campaign during the primaries was proving that concept. However doesn't seem to be the case now.

That is what his father taught him.

His lawyer and close friend taught him to hit back harder than he was hit.

He has deployed and relies very heavily n these two - even in this election cycle.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 12 Oct 2016 01:43

The Clump's continue their courtship.

Couldn't resist this one. Pray the Breadators let me have the time of my life just this once

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Oct 2016 02:22

Try it out

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -election/

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Oct 2016 04:28

NRao wrote:Try it out

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -election/

I hadn't seen Nate Silver's aggregated models in a while but to Trump's credit he is winning the swing states of Georgia and Texas. Alabama looks like its in the bag as well.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 12 Oct 2016 04:40

^I would not put Georgia, Texas, Alabama in swing state category. These are solid red states.

Last time a democrats won Texas or Alabama in a presidential election was in 1976 or 40 years ago.
Last time a democrats won Georgia in a presidential election was in 1992, or only once in last 32 years.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Oct 2016 04:44

Dipanker wrote:^I would not put Georgia, Texas, Alabama in swing state category. These are solid red states.

Last time a democrats won Texas or Alabama in a presidential election was in 1976 or 40 years ago.
Last time a democrats won Georgia in a presidential election was in 1992, or only once in last 32 years.

#Sarcasm

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 12 Oct 2016 05:16

so because you think the polls are accurate then you should believe gary johnson has 10% of the vote........

I think Hillary is going to win but I also think the polls inhale very bad air.

the next 4 years are going to be miserable beyond belief.............

more and more of identity and gender politics.......the nation is going to be like one big animal farm college campus from Maine to California.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Oct 2016 05:30

Silver's polls only has Johnson at 6.3% which should fall the closer they get to election day. I still would not be surprised if he tripped his vote share compared to 2012..Obama secured 51%, and Romney 47%...The current two candidates from the two main party's aren't going to get that much. Between Johnson, Stein, McMullen and write-ins you are going to get a multi-fold increase in votes being cast against the two main political parties.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Oct 2016 05:32

You can always move to another country. Canada, Mexico, Texas, ......... Plenty of alternatives.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 Oct 2016 05:41

She wants to be President of USA and she hates every day Americans

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Oct 2016 06:08

^ Referring to the phrase "Everyday Americans" in the context of a speech to be given in NH. Apparently this didn't even pass theInfo-Wars editorial process and was soon removed

http://www.businessinsider.com/wikileak ... ns-2016-10

Regardless, she (and DT as well) probably hate everyday americans..just that this was not what was being referred to in the email.