Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Pratyush
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Pratyush »

He does not need one. TSP is doing it all by itself.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Cwapistani Sale now ON!

China's Shanghai Electric to buy $1.77bn stake in K-Electric
KARACHI: The Abraaj Group has announced that an Abraaj-controlled company, KES Power, has entered into a definitive agreement to divest its 66.4% shareholding in K-Electric to the Shanghai Electric Power Company Limited (SEP) for a consideration of $1.77 billion.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

Few news reports on bakonomy.
Reserves fall 0.5pc- yawn news
The liquid foreign exchange reserves amounted to $24.3 billion on Oct 21, down 0.5 per cent from a week ago, the SBP announced on Thursday.

The SBP made payments of $137m on account of external debt servicing and other official payments during the week.

Number of tax-filing companies drops by half- yawn news
Only 338 companies and 217,350 people have so far filed their tax returns despite an extension of two months.

As per income tax law, filing of returns is mandatory for all those who possess a 1,000cc car, a plot of 250 square yards or a flat of 2,000 square feet in any municipal corporation in the country.

Of the 62,000 companies registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, 338 (0.5pc) have filed their tax returns so far. In contrast, 731 companies filed their tax returns during the comparable period a year earlier.

Banks deny FBR access to foreign currency accounts- tribune pk
Commercial banks are not giving access to tax authorities for the scrutiny of foreign currency accounts despite a law that provides access to these accounts.

In December 1999, the Pervez Musharraf government had withdrawn the immunity from tax-related investigation by introducing an amendment to the Pakistan’s Protection of Economic Reforms Act (PERA) of 1992. However, even after 18 years, the banks have not given access to the FBR.

A senior official of the State Bank of Pakistan told the committee that there were 535,000 individual foreign currency accounts with $6.5 billion in deposits.

He could not cite a single case where the FBR got information from the banks over the last 18 years.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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PIA’s accumulated losses fly up to Rs267.56b- tribune pk
Despite lower fuel cost, accumulated losses of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) increased to Rs267.56 billion at the end of the January-March quarter of 2016, up 2.3%.

The PIA spokesman said the prolonged strike in February, which was led by employees in protest against the government’s intention to privatise the state-owned company, was the key reason behind the losses.

“More than 900 flights on domestic and international routes were cancelled due to suspension of flight operations for about five-six days in February,” said spokesman of the Airlines, Danyal Gilani.

In the January-March quarter alone, consolidated losses were four-times high year-on-year, amounting to Rs6.03 billion from Rs1.48 billion in the same three months of 2015
No poultry exports made to Middle East in 6 years- tribune pk
It had been six years since Pakistani poultry products were last exported to these destinations due to the ban imposed by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Yemen, though required international standards were met.

A delegation of the poultry association recently met with Federal Commerce Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan and urged him to take up the issue with the Muslim countries as Indian poultry had grabbed Pakistan’s share in almost all markets.
Work on 7,000MW coal-based power plants likely to be abandoned- tribune pk
Several coal-based power plants with a cumulative production capacity of around 7,000 megawatts are encountering trouble and may be shelved because of unavailability of coal and funds.

These projects include the 6,600MW Gadani Power Park, 330MW Salt Range power plant and 150MW Lakhra power project, according to officials aware of the development.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had inaugurated the power generation park comprising many plants
. A memorandum of understanding was also signed with a Chinese company, but it also distanced itself from the project later.

About the Salt Range power plant, the Ministry of Water and Power has informed the premier that the project had to be abandoned as adequate coal quantity was not available that could be used on a commercial scale.

The project was scheduled to start electricity production by the end of 2017. It was a $590-million mine-mouth project and the Chinese company working on it also refused to push ahead with the plan due to lower tariff.

The coal project in Lakhra had been put on the back burner in the wake of coal scarcity.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Govt should take notice of India’s industrial terrorism: PBIF president
Pakistan Businessmen and Intellectuals Forum (PBIF) President, AKIA President, FPCCI Businessmen Panel Senior Vice Chairman and former provincial minister Mian Zahid Hussain on Monday asked the government to take note of India’s industrial terrorism as it was bent upon destroying Pakistan’s textile sector, the backbone of economy.

In a statement issued here on Monday, he said that India was working on a multi-pronged strategy to damage Pakistan beyond repairs. It has initiated water terrorism followed by successfully pushing issue of Kalabagh Dam into controversies, he added.

He said that India was targeting China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and now it has started industrial terrorism to damage Pakistan’s textile sector and bankrupt our country.

The PBIF president said that Indian prime minister was overseeing external sector personally, it has started giving hidden subsidies to the textile sector while banks have been directed to issue loans on zero per cent interest which has reduced cost of doing business of the competitors.

Mian Zahid Hussain said that on the other hand Pakistan’s textile industry was going down by the passage of every day due to increased cost of doing business.

The situation of investment and remittances was not satisfactory, exports was the only option left to bridge budget deficit otherwise the country will have to rely on foreign loans which have already reached to worrying proportions, he added.

He demanded the immediate refund to all export industries, steps to reduce cost of doing business and extra attention to the value-added sector.

Industrialists should be provided relief by simplifying taxation system and reducing the number of government departments dealing with them to save their time, he added.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Pakistan shippers fume as containers hijacked to block protests
By REUTERS
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani business leaders complained Wednesday of losing millions of dollars to the government´s novel way of containing protesters: by confiscating thousands of shipping containers, many still full of goods, to block roads.
So, the Ganja Govt's target of Pakistan becoming an "economic super power" has now only be "delayed" by another 150 years :lol:
Transport operators complained that up to 4,000 containers had been diverted from their usual route between the southern port city of Karachi and Islamabad to block the capital´s roads this week, as opposition leader Imran Khan threatened a million-strong demonstration to lock down the government.By Tuesday Khan had called the protest off, but the containers -- many carrying medicines, perishable goods and other costly cargo -- had not yet been returned."A great injustice is being done to us as authorities have seized more than 4,000 containers carrying goods," Chaudhry Saeed Iqbal, vice chairman of the Karachi-based Pakistan Transport Federation, told AFP.
If and when the containers are ever returned to the traders, it is "very likely" that the medicines, perishables and other costly cargo would have "gone missing" ; very unlikely that the insurance companies or the Paki Govt will arrange reimbursement !
Government officials were not immediately available for comment.[/quote]- Crowd control -
The sight of containers in the streets have become an ubiquitous sign of stirring unrest in major cities since the tactic was first used in Karachi in 2007.Then, the government of General (retired) Pervez Musharraf sealed the megacity with containers to stop sacked chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry from addressing fellow lawyers.The next "containerisation", as the tactic is becoming known, came later that same year, when current Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tried to return from exile in Saudi Arabia. He landed at Islamabad airport but was deported immediately on a special plane.
The city of Rawalpindi, where Islamabad airport is situated, was locked down with containers in preparation.Since then containers have been freely used to control crowds, even those on routine religious marches.[/quote] Whoever conceived this "brilliant" idea deserves the Paki equivalent of the "Nobel"; the govt gets "free" crowd control equipment, the traders "fume", the "objective of keeping the corrupt government in power is achieved- at minimal cost ", the corrupt officials get to keep the container contents - and the Aam Abduls , suffer as usual :lol:
In 2014 Imran Khan joined forces with populist cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri to bring thousands of protesters to Islamabad for a sit-in outside parliament.The pair turned the government´s use of containers on its head: first, by embracing them as mobile offices, each having their own fully-equipped air-conditioned container with toilets, wifi ( wow !) and television.
They also brought their own cranes and simply removed containers -- even those filled with earth and sand -- positioned by authorities to block their path to the high-security Red Zone in front of Parliament House.
And after a few days of much needed R&R everyone went home !
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Rahul M »

immy the dim also fell from one IIRC. I doubt it increased his brainyness though.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Rishi Verma »

Pakistan Businessmen and Intellectuals Forum (PBIF) What kind of name is it. Implies that in bakistan the businessmen and intellectuals are mutually exclusive. Then again anything is possible in bakistan. Zaid HamIed is an intellectual.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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PIA planning to sack 11,000 employees: sources - ARY NEWS
KARACHI: The cash-strapped Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) is planning to carry out unprecedented downsizing to steer the national airliner out of financial crisis.According to sources, the PIA management is mulling to sack around 11,000 employees out of its total strength of 18,000 staffers.
The management believes that PIA requires around 6,000 to 7,000 employees to meet its needs, while around 11,000 workers were redundant and liability on the organisation, sources informed.Some 400 employees possessing fake degrees will also be given the heave-ho, it is learnt.
In February this year, PIA workers resorted to violent protests when the management announces its plan to privatize the national airline. At least two PIA staffers were also killed in the protest.
This proves beyond a doubt that the employees of this 'sarkari airline' are not ready for "modern times" (and globalization) and hell-bent on blackmailing the management ! Don't blame them in these "hard" times !
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Pakistan Railways: 62 out of 104 trains continue to incur losses
LAHORE: The earnings chart of the cash-strapped Pakistan Railways (PR) illustrates patent inequality in its passenger earnings segment, with only 40% of trains contributing over 80% of the revenue for fiscal year 2015-16.

The remaining 60% of trains have failed to reach their break-even point and have instead incurred losses amounting to Rs1.75 billion, according to PR documents.

Currently, PR is operating 104 trains, of which only 42 express trains generate profits. These long-distance trains, mainly operating on the Main-Line One, generated around Rs17.45 billion out of total passenger train earnings of Rs20.39 billion for 2015-16.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ranjan.rao »

Zaid HamIed is an intellectual.
:rotfl: :rotfl: what else can be expected from those who dishonored the graves of nobel price winners
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Falijee wrote:PIA planning to sack 11,000 employees: sources - ARY NEWS
KARACHI: The cash-strapped Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) is planning to carry out unprecedented downsizing to steer the national airliner out of financial crisis.According to sources, the PIA management is mulling to sack around 11,000 employees out of its total strength of 18,000 staffers.
The management believes that PIA requires around 6,000 to 7,000 employees to meet its needs, while around 11,000 workers were redundant and liability on the organisation, sources informed.Some 400 employees possessing fake degrees will also be given the heave-ho, it is learnt.
In February this year, PIA workers resorted to violent protests when the management announces its plan to privatize the national airline. At least two PIA staffers were also killed in the protest.
This proves beyond a doubt that the employees of this 'sarkari airline' are not ready for "modern times" (and globalization) and hell-bent on blackmailing the management ! Don't blame them in these "hard" times !
The hostesses can 'earn' big dividends by providing 'value added services', which are much sought after by hardworking and tired regional men.
What's wrong with that ? :shock:
There's a need for such services, and it puts food on Fauj's table, and theirs :D
And the whole deal is legit too !!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by menon s »

The Sharif brothers are counting on the sahiwal coal power plant to be operational to lift the power crisis in Punjab and the first phase of 660mw is heading completion.
It was initially announced by the Chinese firm that the tariff would be PKR 8.12 \kwh..which is agreeable according to their standards, but now its announced that it doesn't include the coal transport charges. From Indonesia to port qassim by sea...and by rail from khi to sahiwal , around 1100 km.
Given efficiency of PK rail..it cannot handle 4.5 mn tons per year all the way from khi to sahiwal.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Pathik »

abhijitm wrote:Govt should take notice of India’s industrial terrorism: PBIF president
Pakistan Businessmen and Intellectuals Forum (PBIF) President, AKIA President, .
intellectuals??? :rotfl:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vinu »

More details on the IMF's Pig's-Lipstick.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... ld-Economy

This is in spite high unemployment, external debt and low FDI. Either the mighty IMF is fooled by the cooked-up data of Pak government or they willingly turned blind eye for a bigger political agenda. We need to consider the recent IMF think tank views on how bad the CPCE will be for Pak economy.

Tale of Pakistan and IMF: The lies we tell. (Explains how the IMF targets were revised down and objectives were changed.)
http://www.brecorder.com/company-news/2 ... 2016-09-16

As Pak is few calculations away to become a Trillion Dollar economy in terms of PPP, the story is getting ready for re-election of existing set-up.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Growing liability: Govt piles on further debt of Rs858b from July to Sept
ISLAMABAD: The federal government has added Rs858 billion to its growing debt pile from July through September this year, which is almost double the amount authorities needed for budget financing, heightening risks attached to the country’s heavy indebtedness.

With an addition of Rs858 billion during the first quarter (July-September) of this fiscal year, the total central government debt, excluding liabilities, increased to Rs19.9 trillion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Of this amount, the domestic debt stood at Rs14.4 trillion while external debt was Rs5.5 trillion. Almost the entire increase came in the shape of domestic debt.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by durvasa »

Paki just lost kne-third its GDP with Modi killing all fake india notes!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Prem »

Pathik wrote:[quote=
intellectuals??? :rotfl:
13th generation inbred.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Pakistan's Debt and Liabilities Profile

Cwapistan's Total Debt and Liabilities (I +II) : End June 2016 = Pak. Rs 22,461.8 Billion
@ US$ 1 = Pak. Rs 104.6978 Equates to US$ 214.54 Billion

Cwapistan GDP End June 2016 : Pak Rs. 29,597.9
Cwapistan Debt & Liabilities to GDP Ratio : 75.36%

If additional amount of Pak Rs. 858 Billion additional Debt accrued in July-September 2016 then the Total Debt increases to Pak Rs. 23,319.8 Billion and the Debt Ratio increase to 78.79%.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by RohitAM »

Peregrine wrote:Pakistan's Debt and Liabilities Profile

Cwapistan's Total Debt and Liabilities (I +II) : End June 2016 = Pak. Rs 22,461.8 Billion
@ US$ 1 = Pak. Rs 104.6978 Equates to US$ 214.54 Billion

Cwapistan GDP End June 2016 : Pak Rs. 29,597.9
Cwapistan Debt & Liabilities to GDP Ratio : 75.36%

If additional amount of Pak Rs. 858 Billion additional Debt accrued in July-September 2016 then the Total Debt increases to Pak Rs. 23,319.8 Billion and the Debt Ratio increase to 78.79%.
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You can drop the Pakistani GDP by about a third after the currency notes news today, what with their counterfeiting companies going out of business with immediate effect. If the new notes have RFID's built in and can be tracked, that is the end of the large denomination counterfeiting in the country, especially since a counterfeit note will simply not register on the system database as having been printed at all.

The end of Bakistan as an economy is nigh !!!
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Pakistan’s external debt likely to swell to $110b in four years

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s external debt is projected to grow to a whopping $110 billion within four years and it will need over $22 billion a year just to meet external payment requirements, posing a serious threat to the country’s solvency.

By that time, Pakistan will again be back to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to avoid default on international payments as it did in 2013, according to independent projections revealed at the National Debt Conference on Saturday.

Two renowned economists, former finance minister Dr Hafiz Pasha and former director general debt Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, have made the external debt projections. The $110-billion external debt level by 2019-20 will be $24 billion higher than projections made by the IMF in its latest report on Pakistan.

Khan shared his assessment at the debt conference, arranged by the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) – an independent think tank.

The duo updated their previous external debt forecast for fiscal year 2018-19 from $90 billion to $98 billion after the government borrowed heavily in the past one year.

At present, the external debt stands at $73 billion, which has been projected to swell 50% to $110 billion in just four years. AOA!

They did not see a major change in Pakistan’s export situation and anticipated that by 2019-20, the exports would stand roughly at $25 billion, a level that the country crossed in the last year of previous government of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

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Owing to slowdown in exports, Pakistan’s external debt to export ratio has been projected at 441.8% by 2019-20, which is highly unsustainable. By that year, the country will consume 40% of its export earnings to service the external debt.

“Pakistan is fast slipping into the debt trap and neither the government nor parliament is playing its due role,” remarked Asad Umar, MNA of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf while speaking at the conference.

Khan said by 2019-20 amortisation payments would increase to $10 billion. To fill the current account gap, the country will require another $12.5 billion a year, increasing the total external payment requirement to $22.5 billion. The current account deficit will mainly widen due to imports of machinery and plants for projects being developed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Against IMF’s projection of $16.7 billion, Khan said total external financing needs to bridge the current account deficit and repay loans would stand at $22.5 billion by 2019-20.

After exhausting all available resources including CPEC financing, foreign investment and funds from traditional donors, there would still be $11-billion financing gap, which the country would not be able to bridge without IMF’s help, said Khan.

He predicted that Pakistan would return to the IMF in 2018-19 – the fiscal year when the country’s external debt would be $98 billion and its financing gap will be $9 billion.

“Pakistan’s debt situation is deteriorating rapidly and posing a serious threat to its solvency,” he cautioned. Commercial borrowings comprised 25% of external debt, which was a matter of concern, said Shahid Kardar, former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.

He said low returns on the country’s foreign currency reserves compared to the borrowing cost were also a matter of concern.

Khan said the PML-N and PPP governments had added $49 billion to the current external debt of $73 billion. Most of this amount, estimated at $32.6 billion, was added from 2008 to 2016 while the remaining $17.4 billion was added during the 1990s.

“We need to develop a more effective borrowing strategy, which should be consistent with the country’s development priorities,” suggested Khan.

“Pakistan can keep its debt at sustainable levels by achieving about 6% annual economic growth,” said Dr Ali Kemal, research economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE). He, however, said despite the increase in debt levels, Pakistan was still not Greece.

“We are at a comfortable stage and there is no need to worry about anything,” said Zafar Masud, Director General of the Central Directorate of National Savings, while speaking at the conference.

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Last edited by Peregrine on 15 Nov 2016 01:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

Gawaadaar has been inaugurated six times starting from 1989 (by Pinky). Mushy was shown empty containers in 2006. See video starting 33:00.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQXvJah8gRA
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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anupmisra wrote:Gawaadaar has been inaugurated six times starting from 1989 (by Pinky). Mushy was shown empty containers in 2006. See video starting 33:00. K'rachi port is 55% under utilized.Also, doesn't matter if the containers were empty. It is a symbolic importance.

Pakjabis at their best.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQXvJah8gRA
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Pakistan Tells India and Bangladesh to Return Rs. 15.25 Billion in Debts

(So, it has not morphed into a DEMAND yet- it is only a "tell" at this stage !)
The State Bank of Pakistan has decided to call in debts owed by India and Bangladesh.SBP wrote to all commercial banks and financial institutions requesting any details on receivables and assets owed to Pakistan from the two countries. This is to make a final assessment for the amount owed by India and Bangladesh.Pakistan is reportedly owed Rs. 15.25 billion from the two countries according to SBP’s estimates.
So, the State Bank of Pakistan has concocted plans and passed some "fictitious journal entries" on their books to window dress their balance sheet for the benefit of foreign lenders ! Had no idea that the situation of Paki finances was THAT bad . :lol:
India owes Rs. 6 billion while Bangladesh owes Rs. 9.25 billion to Pakistan. The letter by SBP asks the heads of the banks and financial institutions to give them details on everything owed by the governments or the central banks of the two countries.
Anything and everything owed is demanded, including land, building, furniture, papers, loans, advances, investment, office equipment, vehicles and government securities.Any write-offs made on these debts are also demanded by the State Bank. According to the bank, India has owed Pakistan since 1947 and the total amount is higher than Rs. 6 billion.Gold reserves, sterling securities, Indian securities, Rupee coins and Pakistan’s share in the Indian currency at the time of partition is included in the owed amount.
:roll:
After 70 years ,fighting at least three major wars with India, and declaring India to be a "perpetual enemy for life", GOP still have "hopes" ( like the Kashmir real estate ) of collection; no doubt the assets on the books of SBP would be classed as bogus and junk by international auditors
At the time of partition, Pakistan paid India for printing of currency notes. The notes were never given by India and the money paid for printing them wasn’t returned either. Not even a dime was paid by India since that time. India is liable to pay us Rs. 40 million for the currency printing alone.Bangladesh owed Pakistan Rs. 9.21 billion by June 30th of this year. This amount includes transactions between government offices, loans, advances and papers. :((
Has the Indian and Bangladeshi High Commissioners been summoned to the Paki Phoren Office in Isloo and given a demarche under these "new demands"- enquiring readers want to know :mrgreen:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

India should acknowledge the debt and pay them in Pakistani manufactured Indian rupees
Gautam
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by nachiket »

g.sarkar wrote:India should acknowledge the debt and pay them in Pakistani manufactured Indian rupees
Gautam
Better yet, pay them using the old 500 and 1000 rupee notes. Indian banks have a huge stash of them now that they were going to destroy anyway.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Prem »

Falijee wrote:Pakistan Tells India and Bangladesh to Return Rs. 15.25 Billion in Debts
After 70 years ,fighting at least three major wars with India, and declaring India to be a "perpetual enemy for life", GOP still have "hopes" ( like the Kashmir real estate ) of collection; no doubt the assets on the books of SBP would be classed as bogus and junk by international auditors
At the time of partition, Pakistan paid India for printing of currency notes. The notes were never given by India and the money paid for printing them wasn’t returned either. Not even a dime was paid by India since that time. India is liable to pay us Rs. 40 million for the currency printing alone.Bangladesh owed Pakistan Rs. 9.21 billion by June 30th of this year. This amount includes transactions between government offices, loans, advances and papers.Has the Indian and Bangladeshi High Commissioners been summoned to the Paki Phoren Office in Isloo and given a demarche under these "new demands"- enquiring readers want to know :mrgreen:
I think India should take the offer to do this accounting. 47 was also partition of natural resources between Muslims and non Muslims. Since Indians have been using their own portion of resources on Muslims for 70 years and now owed to us from the portion Pakistan got as part of the deal on behalf of Muslims.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by svinayak »

Prem wrote: Pakistan Tells India and Bangladesh to Return Rs. 15.25 Billion in Debts

I think India should take the offer to do this accounting. 47 was also partition of natural resources between Muslims and non Muslims. Since Indians have been using their own portion of resources on Muslims for 70 years and to now owed to us from the portion Pakistan got as part of the deal on behalf of Muslims.
This is the mentally emotional state which looks at the past grievances and the state wants to recover from the past perceived loss

India has to be paid for loss of damage to its Indus Valley Civilization which runs on the Indus River present day Pakistan.
India has to rebuild the Saraswati Sindhu River civilization from almost nothing and bring Indian civilization back to revive the modern state with religion, culture and History.
Muslims have to pay for the loss of damage to India and Indian civilization!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by RohitAM »

I think this accounting demand by the State Bank of Pakistan should be used as a case study in business schools - how to fudge accounts over a period of 70 years, inclusive of calculation of original principal, overall interest payment calculations, and classification of assets (and their valuations) which need to be attached for the completion of the payment. :lol: :rotfl:
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Market watch: Investors remain on edge with political drama
KARACHI: Investors in the stock market remained wary as the Panama Papers case involving the family of prime minister hangs in the balance.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Debt indicators paint bleak picture]

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s debt sustainability indicators have significantly worsened in the past one year due to increase in foreign exchange and refinancing risks, which appears to be the result of reckless borrowing,showed an official report.

The average time to maturity of public debt fell in fiscal year 2015-16, which increased the refinancing risks, according to the Public Debt Management Risk Report that the Ministry of Finance released on Thursday.

Similarly, short-term foreign currency debt as a percentage of official liquid reserves and net international reserves increased in fiscal year 2015-16, which increased the foreign currency risk, revealed the report.

It suggested that most of the indicators were moving into the red, although these were still within the limits prescribed in the Medium Term Debt Management Strategy 2016-19.

The debt management strategy that Pakistan adopted in March 2016 under an IMF programme has set target ranges for currency, refinancing and interest rate risks.

The average time to maturity of the public debt has come down from four years and three months in 2015 to four years and one month, according to the report prepared by the Debt Management Office of the finance ministry.

The major reduction was on account of decrease in the average time to maturity of external debt from nine years and four months to eight years and nine months. This appeared to be the result of government’s decision to resort to short-term foreign commercial borrowings.

The domestic debt’s average time to maturity also reduced from two years and three months to two years and one month, according to the report.

These changes appear contrary to the target set in the medium term strategy that talks about increasing the average time to maturity of the domestic debt.

The average time to refixing of public debt has also dropped from four years and one month to three years and eight months, heightening the interest rate risk. The external debt’s average time to refixing also reduced from eight years and six months to eight years and two months.

The ratio of domestic debt maturing in one year increased from 47.3% to 51.9%. The ratio of external debt maturing within one year also increased from 8.1% to 11.3%.

Consequently, the ratio of debt – maturing within one year – as percentage of total public debt increased from 36.2% to 40.3%, according to the report.

Forex risks

The foreign currency debt as a percentage of total debt slightly increased from 28.3% to 28.6% by June 2016, according to the finance ministry’s report.

The ratio of short-term foreign currency debt as a percentage of net international reserves of the central bank worsened from 70.3% to 76.5% by June 2016. Similarly, the ratio of short-term foreign currency debt as percentage of total official liquid reserves deteriorated from 27.9% to 31.9%.

However, the fixed debt (debt issued at a fixed rate as opposed to the one pegged with Kibor) as a percentage of total public debt slightly improved from 65.8% to 67.6%, according to the report.

Pakistan’s external debt is projected to grow to a whopping $110 billion within four years and it will need over $22 billion a year just to meet external payment requirements, according to projections made by two renowned economists, former finance minister Dr Hafiz Pasha and former director general debt Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan. This poses a serious threat to the country’s solvency, according to them.

During the past one year, the government’s contingent liabilities also significantly increased, which showed deterioration in public sector enterprises and more borrowings by these state-owned companies for various purposes.

The federal government’s contingent liabilities stood at Rs721.2 billion in June 2016, compared to Rs636 billion in fiscal year 2014-15, according to the report.
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anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

National debt, liabilities cross Rs2.2 trillion
Pakistan's overall debt and liabilities have soared to an all-time high and have crossed Rs2.2 trillion ─ an increase of Rs0.8tr since the PML-N government came to power, said the recently released National Data Summary released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
The overall debt pile reached around 68pc of GDP which is a violation of Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act 2005, which binds the government to keep the total public debt below 60pc of GDP
Now, if you add in all the debt that's been written off....

Haram ka link: http://www.dawn.com/news/1297545/nation ... 2-trillion
Vinu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vinu »

anupmisra wrote:
Pakistan's overall debt and liabilities have soared to an all-time high and have crossed Rs2.2 trillion ─
It is actually Rs.14.79 Trillion and in the current exchange rate it is around USD 141 Billion. No idea where does the Rs.2.2 Trillion come from.

Equivalent Haram ka link: http://indianexpress.com/article/world/ ... n-4386553/

If this (debt and liabilities) pile is 68pc of their GDP pile, then their GPD may be around USD 207 Billion, but the officially claimed GDP is for greater than this.
Tax collection, Remittance, export and FDI are shrinking, on the other news the over all electric power consumption has decreased significantly as well. Other than Chinese investments (CPEC mostly) there is no other player willing to invest in that country. The IMF paper on Pak economic stability is the only positive news I found in the recent times, which was effectively blown up and echoed by most Pak medias.

I am unable to understand what kind of macroeconomic stability found by S&P to upgrade the credit rating from B- to B.
Vinu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vinu »

Alert Pak link: https://www.thenews.com.pk/magazine/mon ... sy-defence
FDI, one of the major components of GDP, has gone down by an unprecedented 48 percent, and nothing is being done to address this issue.
Since there is no check by the IMF after the completion of its $6.1 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), the government is heavily borrowing from the State Bank. Around Rs800 billion were borrowed only during the first quarter of the current financial year, and who knows how much would be borrowed till June 30, 2017 to help the government to meet its day-to-day expenses
The below is the only thing makes sense to me.
On November 10, the Senate Standing Committee on Finance concluded that all governments had been faking revenue collection figures, and that targets were met only by further squeezing the existing tax payers. The committee headed by Senator Saleem Mandviwala was of the view that the PML-N government’s statements on the economy were false, including the budget deficit
Independent economists often criticise such reports by calling them a pack of lies and self-serving, not meant to turnaround the economy in the real sense
S&P credit rating B means - Fakeconomy.
Rishi Verma
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Rishi Verma »

Vinu wrote:
anupmisra wrote:
It is actually Rs.14.79 Trillion and in the current exchange rate it is around USD 141 Billion. No idea where does the Rs.2.2 Trillion come from.
14.79 trillion or 2.2 trillion which one is immaterial because rule 6 of baki logic is if the currency becomes worthless (zero) then debt also goes to zero. One can't have rational mind and think baki thoughts.
Patni
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Patni »

I wonder how much stress paki fakenomoney is feeling now that they cant print FICN and pay off all terrorists munnas? The only thriving business of paki land, the hawala sector must be higly stressed.
Peregrine
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Vinu wrote:It is actually Rs.14.79 Trillion and in the current exchange rate it is around USD 141 Billion. No idea where does the Rs.2.2 Trillion come from.
Rishi Verma wrote:14.79 trillion or 2.2 trillion which one is immaterial because rule 6 of baki logic is if the currency becomes worthless (zero) then debt also goes to zero. One can't have rational mind and think baki thoughts.
Rishi Verma Ji :

Pakistan's Debt and Liabilities-Summary

A. Total Debt and Liabilities (sum I to IX) : 22,461.8 Billion Pak Rupees

i.e. 22.4618 Trillion Pak Rupees
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Rammpal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Rammpal »

^^^^ All the coal and dimension stones, just laying there, waiting to be tapped.... !!
Can we do something about converting that to cash.... and bring that to This side of the border !! ?? 8) :cry: :wink:
Peregrine
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Fully Posted on the CPEC Thread
CPEC project: Nascent industries afraid of big Chinese firms
ISLAMABAD: Despite prospects of hefty benefits in many aspects, the business community sees the $45-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project a threat to the domestic industry if the government does not come up with certain preemptive measures to give protection to vulnerable sectors of the economy.
Ub Pachhtaye Kaa Hoyi Jub Chiordian Chug Gaye Khet?
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