Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

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TSJones
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

I think The Donald is going to be the delagater-in-chief. I just don't see him micro managing policy wonking like Obama or Clinton.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by GShankar »

Who said the world can't take care of itself? Cosmic forces have intervened to restore the balance of nature (power). Now it is upto us to take our rightful place in the multi-polar world. jai hind.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

Austin wrote:
rohitvats wrote:Was the Indian-American community in the US with Trump from start?
Not the business community atleast , They voted for Hillary and kept abusing Trump.

One Crook votes for another
Depends upon which business community. I know plenty of self employed business folks that voted for him even though hated him simply because of the Republican platform and the tax code advantage they'll get. These aren't Bloomberg/CNBC types but these type of folks are the majority of the Indian business community. Call them SBO's, entrepreneurs etc but these are informed Indian-American voters that overwhelmingly vote on the economy and how it benefits. I have relatives that voted for Obama on both the occasions but only went to Trump after being scared of what the Democratic tax platform will be for them given how far left Sanders took it during the negotiations pre-convention.

Overall a significantly more divided nation now with the popular vote going opposite of the EV totals much like during GW 2000. He has his work cut out. Expect him to adopt a more traditional 'republican' positions vis-a-vis economic and foreign policy now that the tamasha is over. This will likely shock many but I wouldn't be surprised his FP position now pivoting to closer to a Tom Cotton or a Marco Rubio.
IMHO, HRC's email server, Ben Ghazi, Clinton Initiative, etc. will become non-issues in no time. Repubs only pursued these issues to keep a check on HRC and they have achieved their goal. They have a bigger battle to fight from this point on. Keeping Trump in check would be much harder challenge for next two years. If they are unable to do that, then mark my words, they would lose senate and congress 2 years from now.
Yup this will all fade away. The real headache would be to develop a common agenda that all three power centers can actually go out and implement together. This won't be easy even with a GOP majority in both the houses. The GOP in congress is a deeply divided lot.
I think The Donald is going to be the delagater-in-chief. I just don't see him micro managing policy wonking like Obama or Clinton.
That is both good and scary. He definitly delegates in his businesses but then again he has Jeff Sessions, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich etc that he may try to get involved. Then there is Mike Pence and a host of others that would make sense in a GW Bush cabinet.
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TSJones
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

on a side note if the market is down I'm gonna pick stuff up on the cheap. yeeehaw!

always buy on the cannons and sell on the trumpets!
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Surya »

TSJones wrote:on a side note if the market is down I'm gonna pick stuff up on the cheap. yeeehaw!

always buy on the cannons and sell on the trumpets!

what are you buying :D
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Surya »

Dipanker wrote:Given the closeness of the result in the rust belt battleground states I will credit this Republican victory to Comey. In the October 31st to Nov 5 period Hillary went down from a very comfortable 7+% lead to a precarious 2.7% and could bounce back only to about 3.9% in the remaining 2 days because there was not enough time. This drop cost her the close races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, (and Michigan), supposedly her "fireball" states she was so sure to win that did not pay enough attention and reacted too late.


Turns out the national polls were not too off the mark, by the time all votes are counted Hillary should still win the popular vote by over a million or so, a repeat of 2000 when Gore won the popular vote, but election was stolen by SC Rehnquist and the gang, Comey is the culprit this time.
sure sure sure

interesting that clinto supporters bring up Comey but Brazilles cheat sheet is ignored
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

Surya wrote:
TSJones wrote:on a side note if the market is down I'm gonna pick stuff up on the cheap. yeeehaw!

always buy on the cannons and sell on the trumpets!

what are you buying :D
proven monthly dividend payers even during the 2008 recession.

psec, arcc(quarterly payer), etc.

for sissy fiscal conservatives.......MAIN (main street capital).

ACP is ok for you mad money types.

plus I've got a 20% dividend payer that I ain't sharing. it's too highly speculative and I don't a lot of people buying it and raising the price of the stock and screwing up my payout/reinvestment ratio. sorry...... :oops:

I've owned them all except for MAIN.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Lalmohan »

panduranghari

I see brexiteers from all walks of life including my friends, but the motivation for exit is slightly different in each case (control/identity/accountability...). the only common theme I see is loss of identity and nationalism - which has a racist undertone in most cases; this is irrespective of class. 'the establishment has let us down'... 'we used to be top dog, now we are no longer at the top...'

and ignorance of what the EU does versus what the UK parliament does is shocking (vis a vis control), so the only real issue become immigration

and yes, one of my friends is an ardent brexiteer but is horrified at the trump victory! :-)
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

Given the closeness of the result in the rust belt battleground states I will credit this Republican victory to Comey.
When you field a deeply flawed candidate you are at the mercy of the people picking your nominee as the lesser of two evils. More did so in favor of Hillary, but its an electoral college system and not purely a referendum.

8 years of Obama and 8 years of Clinton in the 1990's. Where were the young democratic leaders? Sander's wasn't even a democrat so the best they could do outside of Clinton was O'Malley? Take a look at Gubernatorial and Congressional republicans in their 40's and then look at similar folks on the democratic side. I simply do not see left of center or centrist Dems that developed during the Clinton or Obama days. Its just wacko old people or deeply unpopular Clintons. Structurally this is going to hurt them 4 years from now.

Comey wasn't manufacturing stuff, he was merely looking into the mistakes Clinton made themselves.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Dipanker »

I think The Donald is going to be the delagater-in-chief. I just don't see him micro managing policy wonking like Obama or Clinton.

That is why there will not be any serious change in the foreign policy, on domestic front some cuts in entitlement programs will happen, Trump's proposed tax cuts, if passed, will offset outlay reductions in the entitlement programs.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

Dipanker wrote:
I think The Donald is going to be the delagater-in-chief. I just don't see him micro managing policy wonking like Obama or Clinton.

That is why there will not be any serious change in the foreign policy, on domestic front some cuts in entitlement programs will happen, Trump's proposed tax cuts, if passed, will offset outlay reductions in the entitlement programs.
He has strongly rejected entitlement program cuts..In fact I remember him chewing into Rubio for suggesting SS cuts to those in the 40's because he said that it should remain the same. The Congressional republicans wan't to absolutely cut those. He also wants to increase spending because -

A) His plan for infra upgrades

B ) Lifting of the BCA defense caps

The only logical explanation to do all this, while at the same time pushing the fiscal conservative message is to cut entitlements..On the trail he said he could do everything for every one of these communities since the US will double or triple its economic growth.."Look at how fast China is growing" he would say.

How much all these plans survive their contact with reality remains to be seen. The easiest legislation to push through would be to repeal PPACA and bring the long term modifications to Social Security. Yes it would go against what he has been promising but it would be something the Republicans running for re-election 2 years from now will jump all over.

On Foreign Policy, it should be closer to GW Bush minus the interventionism. It will be interesting to see which NatSec folks he picks but there are experienced ones within the GOP ranks that did not openly attack him like most and I think they'll come out and speak in favor of him over the next couple of days.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by pankajs »

I remember from couple of years back when a *Grand bargain* was being discussed between Obama and the House Republicans. It failed but one interesting commentary I read coming out of that episode was that while the Republicans wanted to cut Social spending they wanted the proposal detailing the cuts to come from the Democrats.

The logic, as I understood then, was that the Republicans did not want that on their resume as it would also hit their base including veterans. Will be interesting now given that the Republicans control power at all three levels. This is their chance. Are they seriously going after social spending? Will be interesting to watch.

Added later: Top of my head there are close to 40-45 million below poverty line and close to 45-50 million folks on food stamps. The number will not just cover poor African-Americans and Latinos only. A large slice of that population will be poor White folks part of the Republican base.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

they are not going to cut SS. they will:

1. raise the full retirement age

2. raise the ss tax on income level currently at $118,500

3. lower the inflation adjuster

the point is they have a number of tools at their disposal to "save" ss.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by panduranghari »

Singha wrote:the whole term "rust belt" is a insult - as if the people who inhabit it are good for nothing, certainly not for the 'intellectual' work done in the gleaming towers of nyc, boston and sfo.
David Stockman calls it 'Flyover America'.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

The moderate republican plans to 'reform' SS and save it from insolvency is actually fairly decent. It keeps the benefits for those due over the next decade or so but reforms it for folks my age that won't be claiming it for many many years. The problem will be that Trump opposed this plan quite aggressively during the debates. It most definitely needs to be modified..Folks live and work a lot longer than they did and the same applies for Medicare and these programs need to reflect that or else the entitlement spending will essentially make you another Europe.

The pie is finite and within that pie you want to reduce the deficit (your fiscal conservative message), increase capital investment (infrastructure investment, particularly in the rust belt and inner cities) while taking defense spending back to Bush levels (repealing the GOP negotiated BCA). Something has to be cut to pay for all this. Even if we assume he has grand goals/plans for economic growth it will still take time.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by pankajs »

TSJones wrote:3. lower the inflation adjuster

the point is they have a number of tools at their disposal to "save" ss.
Jones baba won't that cut into the social security payouts/etc that these poor folks receive? And it will be tagged to the Republican lapel for ever a long time.

Lets watch what the Republicans do about it beyond making it one of their talking points. And lets watch them spin it. I understand that the current promises cannot be kept and has to be scaled back. Q is who will bell the cat and how will they spin it to make it palatable.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by vinod »

The biggest fear I have of all what is happening is that even the non-racist politicians will be thinking that if they want to progress in the political stage, they have to be more right-wing. This then can morph into a competition on who will be more right-wing and god only knows where that will end. Whatever any one says, the world consciousness has been raised to ignore colour and ethnicity and other prejudices to a certain extent, resulting in mixing and adoption of cultures. We don't want the old medieval world coming back with a vengeance.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

Jones baba won't that cut into the social security payouts/etc that these poor folks receive? And it will be tagged to the Republican lapel for ever a long time.
It will be cut in the out years for folks that won't use it for many many years to come. Essentially if you are in your early to mid 50's you will get the same benefits..If you are in your forties you will have to work longer, pay more, and get less benefits. The GOP has been pushing this for some time in one shape or the other. Its actually not a bad idea imho if it comes with other economic benefits through tax-cuts and higher growth. But I can see how this short changes the poorly educated blue collar workers that voted as a block for him. Short of actually a trade reset and getting jobs back from China, India, Japan etc they are likely to rely on these economic safety nets to carry them through retirement. But does anyone seriously expect a Trump with a GOP Congressional majority to push a Sanders'esque economic agenda?
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by IndraD »

what will happen to US backed rebels in Middle East-Al Nusra and what not??
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

another point is that if they keep raising the max income tax limit for SS then there is a danger that a lot of folks could pay more into it than they will ever get out of it..... a sure fired rebellion factor.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

TSJones wrote:another point is that if they keep raising the max income tax limit for SS then there is a danger that a lot of folks could pay more into it than they will ever get out of it..... a sure fired rebellion factor.
Those my age are already doing it :) All they have done with these programs is pass the mess over to the next generation and move money around (CMS and Medicare is another good example of this)..I for one would actually welcome a more reformed SS and entitlements that gets me slightly less benefits provided I get other economic gains over the rest of my life. Economic Growth and tax-cuts could do that and this is one of the reasons folks like me have been voting more republican than democratic over a period of time ...
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

delete
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by pankajs »

vinod wrote:The biggest fear I have of all what is happening is that even the non-racist politicians will be thinking that if they want to progress in the political stage, they have to be more right-wing. This then can morph into a competition on who will be more right-wing and god only knows where that will end. Whatever any one says, the world consciousness has been raised to ignore colour and ethnicity and other prejudices to a certain extent, resulting in mixing and adoption of cultures. We don't want the old medieval world coming back with a vengeance.
Yes it does encourage a new *lower* level of discourse.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

IndraD wrote:what will happen to US backed rebels in Middle East-Al Nusra and what not??
a lot of that comes from saudis and qatar, etc.....I don't see the donald cutting relationships with those countries.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by vinod »

TSJones wrote:
IndraD wrote:what will happen to US backed rebels in Middle East-Al Nusra and what not??
a lot of that comes from saudis and qatar, etc.....I see the donald cutting relationships with those countries.
But the jihadis will definitely realise that biggest supporter HC is gone and Trump, their worst nightmare is in place. So, any Jihadi worth his salt would be planning his getaway now or at the minimum lay low for some years.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Dipanker »

vinod wrote:The biggest fear I have of all what is happening is that even the non-racist politicians will be thinking that if they want to progress in the political stage, they have to be more right-wing. This then can morph into a competition on who will be more right-wing and god only knows where that will end. Whatever any one says, the world consciousness has been raised to ignore colour and ethnicity and other prejudices to a certain extent, resulting in mixing and adoption of cultures. We don't want the old medieval world coming back with a vengeance.
Silver lining is Hillary will win the popular vote, so a Trump win ( in electoral college ) should not be interpreted by politicians as a clarion call to move to the right.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Austin »

The key worry is Obama disasterous Economic Policy of past 8 years and Bubble generated by Fed when it cracks will be blamed on Trump and he will be the one cleaning up the Mess.

I hope Trump just releases white paper on the Fed Policy of ZIRP/QE and Obama own disaster in Economy the first thing he takes office and puts it across to American people.

The Cunning People of Wall Street , MSM would love to paint Trump in black for the Failure of Obama
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Austin »

Fox Business Video : Stockman: U.S. election is Brexit on steroids

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/52025459 ... show-clips
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

Dipanker wrote:
vinod wrote:The biggest fear I have of all what is happening is that even the non-racist politicians will be thinking that if they want to progress in the political stage, they have to be more right-wing. This then can morph into a competition on who will be more right-wing and god only knows where that will end. Whatever any one says, the world consciousness has been raised to ignore colour and ethnicity and other prejudices to a certain extent, resulting in mixing and adoption of cultures. We don't want the old medieval world coming back with a vengeance.
Silver lining is Hillary will win the popular vote, so a Trump win ( in electoral college ) should not be interpreted by politicians as a clarion call to move to the right.
On the Congressional side, look at the seats up for re-election two years from now. The democrats would have to pull of a surprise equal to or greater than that of Trump to get control of the Senate in 2018. The House favors the republicans so there is really no significant pressure, not to move to the right when it comes to the economic message. Its something they have been wanting but unable to do for a long time.

PPACA is gone replaced with something a lot cheaper but most likely not as comprehensive or as wide as it. The Budget Control Act is also gone now since the democrats can no longer effectively propose/bargain matched social spending that made the fiscal conservatives prevent the defense hawks from getting out of it (which both parties wanted).

So you have reduced social spending (likely) matched by tax breaks and higher defense spending to the tune of half a trillion dollars over 10 years (50 Billion a year increase to the Pentagon budget). This is classic GOP agenda and is a given when they control all three power center . I am more eager to see how Trump manages to introduce his own populist promises into all this. Most of those run contrary to what the GOP leadership in the house and senate has been pushing. How would he win over the freedom caucus when he proposes the largest infrastructure investment since Eisenhower? How he is going to bring jobs back from China, India, Japan, SOKO etc? These things aren't popular with either fiscal or the moderate conservatives and the Democrats aren't going to reach across the aisle in support.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

as a contrarian I think the folks who really get the benefit of ss should pay for it and that means the working poor and lower middle class otherwise the people who "overpay" for the benefit will rebel. it should be part and parcel of a national minimum wage package with a negative income tax as first advocated many years ago by milton freidman.

we already have a sort of negative income tax with the earned income credit tax which does not help you if you are out if work.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Lalmohan »

re mid east:
he will cede space to the Russians, so the shia faction will start to win
(then Saudis/paquis will call hasina atim bum to dance-dance... )

economic policy: what is this Obama economic disaster of which you speak? US has been growing and adding jobs - unlike many of her partners
the financial crash is a function of the bill/GW era loosening of controls on the street
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

TSJones wrote:as a contrarian I think the folks who really get the benefit of ss should pay for it and that means the working poor and lower middle class otherwise the people who "overpay" for the benefit will rebel. it should be part and parcel of a national minimum wage package with a negative income tax as first advocated many years ago by milton freidman.

we already have a sort of negative income tax with the earned income credit tax which does not help you if you are out if work.
That's all well and good but how are you going to pay for it? I would also look at the overall economic benefits someone in each socio-economic class gets. Perhaps its just me or someone that fits my demographic, but I'd rather take a more favorable economic climate and tax system than to keep pushing the entitlement cart forward and passing a broken system to the next generation. We all pay for someone else's benefits anyways just as someone else pays for ours. If this is unfair seek different economic benefits that are more direct. If reducing social security disproportionately impacts the lower-socioeconomic demographics give them something more direct, targeted that gives them the required economic support. That's the way I look at it.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by TSJones »

I've been poor and out of work for over a year in my past life.

and I am here to tell you it is miserable especially in a rich country. it grinds on you.

I managed to pull my fat out of the fire....barely....and it is not an experience I would ever want to repeat,

I owed $50,000 just in credit card debt. to this day I din't know how I managed it w/o declaring bankruptcy.

but by sheer orneriness and fear of failure I survived.

there are middle aged and elderly women working at micky d's and burger kings morning shifts just to survive.

or at the day care centers for children

they make squat but we depend upon them for their services in our rich a**ed country and they deserve our consideration among others.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

they make squat but we depend upon them for their services in our rich a**ed country and they deserve our consideration among others.
I don't think that is the debate here. Of course those that need most economic assistance need to get it. Its how to do in a sustainable fashion. Do you want to keep pushing a broken system of benefits while passing the buck to the next generation? Does that help in the long run as you run up debt and keep on increasing the % of your discretionary spending on entitlements?

You're point actually highlights the deep divide in what Trump has promised vs what he can actually deliver given the control of the three power centers rests with the GOP. The way they look at economic growth, and social safety nets is a lot different. His own agenda and promises runs contrary to that.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by LokeshC »

TSJ,

Finally you and I agree on something. :mrgreen:
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Gus »

vijayk wrote: Here is this This Kutta's contributions o literature
and how different are you by posting that image here?
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by Singha »

for starters the fatcat billion $ SFO cos like apple, google and fbook who make massive profits but stash them in tax havens could be asked to pay something. even after getting tax breaks, subsidized energy they bring in 50 jobs somewhere and act arrogant. same goes for the financial houses...I am sure they use every loophole to evade paying much tax.
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Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by brar_w »

Singha wrote:for starters the fatcat billion $ SFO cos like apple, google and fbook who make massive profits but stash them in tax havens could be asked to pay something. even after getting tax breaks, subsidized energy they bring in 50 jobs somewhere and act arrogant. same goes for the financial houses...I am sure they use every loophole to evade paying much tax.
In the net they are likely to get tax-breaks and incentives. Those making more than a quarter of a million a year are likely to pay less tax under republican control including under Trump. Getting money from tax havens has been a long term GOP plan and these companies actually want to do it in a negotiable way since it means they can actually use it more effectively.

If you are looking at the economic growth model as the problem it isn't the right way imho. Its how that economic benefit has been distributed that is at fault and here if you are looking for a more equitable position, the current make up of DC isn't going to deliver anything radical. This is something the Republicans have been dreaming of close to a decade..The house is way more extreme than it was during Ws time..Its now their time to push their economic agenda.
I am sure they use every loophole to evade paying much tax.
Everyone does including Trump. Its tough to imagine a GOP controlled DC resulting in a net increase in taxes collected from the corporations. It actually runs contrary to their entire modern history or what they have proposed as recently as this election cycle. Any closed loophole will be matched or exceeded by a tax cut. I just don't see a Paul Ryan, Mitch McConell, Jim Jordan, or even Trump's own policy to diverge on the agenda they agreed upon during the convention or the better way agenda that has gone totally unnoticed amidst the tweet storms and back and forth this election cycle.
Dipanker wrote:
Silver lining is Hillary will win the popular vote, so a Trump win ( in electoral college ) should not be interpreted by politicians as a clarion call to move to the right.
If you look at the popular vote numbers, the themes clearly show a war of attrition. Trump got less votes than Romney in 2012( and both were obviously lower than Obama), and won't get the majority of the popular vote. More importantly third party candidates more than tripled their vote share. All these signs point to extremely unpopular major party candidates and the people voting for the one they disliked the least. Clinton always had to count on the people disliking her less than Trump and they did, just not in the numbers that could get her over the top. Same with the assertion that this was a populist sweep. As a nation this trend only came to be in OH, WI, MI and perhaps PA. It wasn't seen in the turnout, popular vote and wasn't seen in many tightly GOP controlled states. Margins were lower in deep red states such as Texas despite of the most unpopular democratic candidate running against the GOP. The nation hasn't be as divided since 2000 as all mandates since then have been far clearer.

Unfortunately (if you are in favor of having two strong and legitimate parties) the numbers will give all the fuel the left needs to push their next candidate to the left of HRC's adopted position which would pretty much be a Bernie Sanders/Liz Warren platform. Put that along with the calls to get rid of the super-delegates and you get a broken democratic party.

If this happens, the GOP has no incentive to adopt the populist rhetoric that Trump has used brilliantly to advance his electoral prospects. The dems loose places like Ohio, Florida and even a Nevada or Colorado with a Howard Dean like candidate. An imploding democratic party will imho allow the GOP as a party to adopt the position of the current house while not being held politically accountable for it. This is exactly what happened with Obama and the rise of the extremist wing of the GOP post his election. We'll just have to see what the Tea Party Equivalent in the Democratic party is.
Last edited by brar_w on 09 Nov 2016 22:19, edited 14 times in total.
sanjaykumar
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Posts: 6095
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Post by sanjaykumar »

Well that's what you get for writing off DT as dumb as an oks.


What does this do to Brand America? Hard to push those T-visas when the President is groping pussy; hard to lecture third worlders on inclusivity.

I support the election results as a true expression of a people's will. A real game changer, which may do America and the world some good.
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