Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

vina · Post by **vina** » 18 Nov 2016 12:05

Can report that the HDFC bank downstairs (in quite a busy CBD area in BLR) is empty. None of the crowds yesterday of people waiting to exchange cash.
The guys are swatting flies. People walking in and doing their business . No lines. The ATM is not open yet though. But in case you want to exchange cash or withdraw funds, I would think no lines. This used to be chock a block full until yesterday .

Something has changed. Don't know what . Maybe with the indelible ink business (don't know if they were doing it yesterday) or the reduction in amount that can be exchanged, .. don't really know what the trigger was, the deep urge to exchange notes is gone.. Maybe they simply ran out of bodies to put in the line.

Basically the branch is back to normal. Or even below normal. In the next 3 days, it will be swatting flies literally as far as I can see.

It looks like atleast in places like BLR etc, we are over the hump. I don't see any panic. Everyone seems to have adjusted. I paid the newspaper wala yesterday with funds transfer . Milkman was always on cheque. The maid came with her pass book this morning and gave her account details . It will be direct transfer for her from now! Street vendors are out, vending with fresh stock. I saw good quality fresh fruits and veggies on a push cart close by.

Ho hum.. I really don't see the scenes we are seeing on TV in Dilli over here in BLR. Maybe and don't have the huge crush of hired bodies trying to exchange cash and try to beat the "note ban" here . Dilli always seems to have this huge rent a crowd available for random stuff thanks to all the politicos.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 18 Nov 2016 12:14

Who predicted the vegetables going unavailable and/or very high prices?

I bought 500 gms brinjal for Rs. 1.5

. Even to that, the trader felt ok to waive his 0.50 paisa for no change available. I gave him 2 and told to keep change

.

My mother says the last time she bought the vegetables so cheap was some 20 years back or more. Don't know why suddenly vegetable prices are down

. Perhaps it's momentary.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 18 Nov 2016 12:36

kapilrdave wrote:
chetak wrote:Election commission has cautioned against the use of indelible ink as impending elections in some states will make it very difficult for voters to vote there.
ECI can go take a hike, literally. Elections are months away for god's sake. And in any case, protocol can be changed to mark another finger than the index finger.

I find it amusing (or rather ridiculous) that people can find strange excuses and logic to oppose some very logical and necessary steps. And today we have even the like of Arun Shauri opposing demonetization and abusing our PM. For what? A seat in ministry ?

I've stopped watching TV for long because it was hurting my BP everyday.

whichever finger the bank uses, sly voters will vote and claim that the bank inked the finger and the voter is not at fault.

Indian jugad does not always work only for the good guys.

They will vote multiple times blaming the bank

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 18 Nov 2016 12:37

Since UP election is next no opposition will allow things to settle there. Had it been 4 yrs away we would be witnessing different scenario perhaps.

KarthikSan · Post by **KarthikSan** » 18 Nov 2016 12:38

vina wrote:Ho hum.. I really don't see the scenes we are seeing on TV in Dilli over here in BLR. Maybe and don't have the huge crush of hired bodies trying to exchange cash and try to beat the "note ban" here . Dilli always seems to have this huge rent a crowd available for random stuff thanks to all the politicos.

Dilli always was the BM capital of the country. Here in Western TN, before Made in Cheen was the defacto reference to low quality crap, Delhi Make was the standard. There are a bazillion factories in and around Dilli making and selling all kinds of crap without invoicing thereby escaping the CST, VAT drudgery and lower costs.

It is not a surprise that Dilli has the most BM to launder.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 18 Nov 2016 12:47

chetak wrote:
whichever finger the bank uses, sly voters will vote and claim that the bank inked the finger and the voter is not at fault.

Indian jugad does not always work only for the good guys.

They will vote multiple times blaming the bank

1. UP elections are at least 2 months away. Nails grow and take the mark away from skin which would be a clear indication.
2. ECI can simply mark the thumb!

The bogus voters can do whatever nautanki they like. The security responsible there will not allow them to take the officers to ride. Can't vote means can't vote, as it's currently enforced already. And if security can't enforce it then you have much bigger problem than the finger marks.

KarthikSan · Post by **KarthikSan** » 18 Nov 2016 12:50

Visited Bank of Baroda yesterday. The crowds were larger than normal. However, the line to exchange notes were almost empty. There were two separate lines for depositing old notes into and withdrawing from personal accounts. Some people were angry because a few people were trying to cut into the queue but nothing unusual. They were even letting people with business accounts withdraw more than 24k limit from current account.

Not much of a hassle getting other services. Used the security locker and out in about 45mins.

praksam · Post by **praksam** » 18 Nov 2016 13:25

Surgical strike 2

Govt. To investigate title of lands on major highways in big cities.

This is Awesome news if true.

http://abpnews.abplive.in/videos/watch- ... wo-498988/

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 18 Nov 2016 13:28

Visited Hdfc for some other reason. Manager said work load is there but they are fine. Not many new accounts opened or 2.4 lac deposits. Everyday conference calls have increased to make sure about conformance

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 18 Nov 2016 14:01

I hope they can continue with the inking.
The exchange lines have decreased pretty drastically over the last two days.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 18 Nov 2016 14:09

Things are limping back to Normal despite liquidity crunch. India huge and populous country like India, There will always be pockets of darkness where people will feel the pinch or will fall in the cracks but generally the hope is that this pain will subside by end of Nov.
Veggie prices are really down with tomato in Reliance fresh being sold at RS. 8.00 / Kg.
Come what may, PM Modi is setting the bar very high for future PM's of India.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 18 Nov 2016 14:17

VikasRaina wrote: Come what may, PM Modi is setting the bar very high for future PM's of India.

+infinite

We had reached to the point that we had people (a former finance minister no less) stating publicly from the dais "any chu**ya can become PM"

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 18 Nov 2016 14:25

For first 50 years, uwritten belief was only a twice born can excel as PM. This belief was exacerbated when ABV became PM.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Nov 2016 14:36

vina wrote: Something has changed. Don't know what . Maybe with the indelible ink business (don't know if they were doing it yesterday) or the reduction in amount that can be exchanged, .. don't really know what the trigger was, the deep urge to exchange notes is gone.. Maybe they simply ran out of bodies to put in the line.

10 AM queue of 20 outside a local Canara bank. Everyone was carrying a bag with a rectangular bundle-of-notes sized bulge. One man had what looked like a bag with multiple lakhs.

vina · Post by **vina** » 18 Nov 2016 14:36

Amazing. Went for my afternoon stroll. Saw two bank open, HDFC and another PSU banks.
ZERO crowd. If you want to exchange cash there, you will be the ONLY person doing so, and you will be served immediately. The ATMs are closed though. But cash withdrawal and currency exchange will be immediate.

I can't believe what happened overnight. The ink business has worked miracles and/or they have run out of bodies to put in the line to change notes.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Nov 2016 14:37

kapilrdave wrote:Who predicted the vegetables going unavailable and/or very high prices?

I bought 500 gms brinjal for Rs. 1.5 . Even to that, the trader felt ok to waive his 0.50 paisa for no change available. I gave him 2 and told to keep change .

My mother says the last time she bought the vegetables so cheap was some 20 years back or more. Don't know why suddenly vegetable prices are down . Perhaps it's momentary.

They get spoilt if they are not bought - so they are being dumped at low prices. You see no refrigerasun in market

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Nov 2016 14:38

VikasRaina wrote: Come what may, PM Modi is setting the bar very high for future PM's of India.

It is so high that everyone will duck and walk under.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 18 Nov 2016 14:47

The govt has refused appointment of 43 judges in lower courts. Supreme Court does not like it.
Supreme Court is retaliating by refusing to stay hearing against demonetisation in lower courts.
If any of the lower courts passes a judgement against demonetisation, we will have the much awaited clash between the courts and legislature.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Nov 2016 14:57

Folks, this is NOT the politics thread. Please don't discuss general politics here.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 18 Nov 2016 15:02

I think enough people are supporting, this is only 9th day, by 50th day, it will be all over...

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 18 Nov 2016 15:18

Disappointed with today's reconn at Corporation Bank. They had no cash since opening doors in morning!! Their ATM is shuttered since day-1. No staff or manager shows any care or concern. Even during naarmal days their customer service is poor. Other ATMs (Axis, ICICI) were dispensing cash merrily. Asked the petrol pump guy about cash, they have SBI kiosk but they aren't setup for giving cash.

Alternate method needs to be implemented for giving cash to the general public not just public announcements.

Kejri-mamta vultures are counting on poor implemention to instigate the crowds.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 18 Nov 2016 15:53

I think the worst is over if you don't watch the news and take a stroll on the road.
JMT..

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 18 Nov 2016 16:15

i spoke with HDFC bank manager in Surajkund, Faridabad.,,Delhi NCR..lines are still there but reducing with each day. bank opens at 9.30 am and cash finishes by 1 pm..after that its deposit lines only till 3.30 pm. the bank staff is really working hard. the bank manager goes around checking with people outside the bank ...anyone for DD..anyone for RTGS/NEFT..other sundry work.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 18 Nov 2016 16:19

Yesterday waited for an hr at one ATM, cash got over before my number came. Out of 7-10 ATMs on my way back home only this one was functioning. Yesterday morning there was no cash in bank branches as well. May be the got the cash later in the day.

Got a 2000 Rs note out from ATM today within 15min. Many people are taking out money on more than one card at a time. Need some cash at hand for a trip outside city. Not sure how handy that 2000 note will be. But something is better than nothing. Also need to pay the canteen guy now. He was holding up on credit so long. But he is ready to take old notes.

But people are supporting Modi, all hands down. There is trouble for all in this, but there is no halla gulla anywhere. People are very patient and supportive. If you totally stop reading/watching news, you might feels its not that bad atmosphere out there afterall.

Now GOI also started dispensing cash from some 2500 petrol bunks. Hopefully 500rs notes would start flowing by next week.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 18 Nov 2016 16:38

From the dark dungeons on the far side :

Accompanied a friend yesterday to Belgaum. Friend wanted to buy tiles for his new building in north Goa. Goans flock to Belagum due to price difference. Total shock.

Friend thought he is Mr smarty pants. Instead of exchanging his notes at the bank he thought he will use it to pay marwari traders.

Traders were sitting idle. Did not see a single customer in any shop. Friend selected tiles and deal reached at 2.25 L. Friend reached into his bag and pulled out his old notes to pay. Trader flatly refused and said:

1. "instructed" by BJP not to accept old notes
2. Will accept EFT or cheque with full VAT invoice

3. They converted all their BM a month before the announcement.

Friend and I returned to Goa. It was a ride for me but friend was upset.

Today morning he asked me if I can help him setup a company and current bank accounts.

Here, a person is offering 50k in new 2k notes for anybody wanting to,convert. 1 x 50k lot only. People are refusing to pay the premium.

A well connected establishment person is offering lots of 10k to be converted at 70% discount. Some new money is leaking but in the scheme of things it probably won't be material.

Am using a painter, pest control from rural Maharashtra near the Goan border All payments being made by NEFT. In the stand off between cash and EFT, like in other parts of,life, the most determined person wins. I won each time.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 18 Nov 2016 17:05

To those casting aspersions on likes of Mr Shourie, please google his name. I dont think his personal situation would allow him to be a minister. Plus i think he is way over 70.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 18 Nov 2016 17:45

RajeshG wrote:To those casting aspersions on likes of Mr Shourie, please google his name. I dont think his personal situation would allow him to be a minister. Plus i think he is way over 70.

I have had had the honour of meeting Arun Shourie twice (late 90s) and exchanged emails with him in June 2014 after elections. I wanted to get some ideas on national security and administrative reform up the chain of command in the new govt. He is very fine and upright man and a committed nationalist. Allow him some mistakes in old age. I have to say I was very surprised he wasn't in govt. But these things happen. He should follow karma yoga and let this great yagya succeed. Egos and 'I' have brought down the greatest of maharathis. Nishkam karma can be managed by only a few. We Indians particularly have a problem with this - surprises me.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 18 Nov 2016 18:03

rahulm wrote:3. They converted all their BM a month before the announcement.

How reliable is this pices?? So it was leaked after all..?? If this is true and traders knew, then its pretty certain all BJP politicians knew. Which means many in Congress knew too and they got chance to save their assess. But guess Kejri/Mamata/Mulayam/Commie gang didn't get the memo...

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 18 Nov 2016 18:07

JayS wrote:
rahulm wrote:3. They converted all their BM a month before the announcement.
How reliable is this pices?? So it was leaked after all..?? If this is true and traders knew, then its pretty certain all BJP politicians knew. Which means many in Congress knew too and they got chance to save their assess. But guess Kejri/Mamata/Mulayam/Commie gang didn't get the memo...

The traders are referring to the voluntary black money declaration scheme which ran till Sept 2016.
No one from govt will "tell" them that demonetization will be coming next.
Anyways for the intelligent "ishara hi kaafi hai".

Modi's warning to black money hoarders in July 2016 about the voluntary declaration scheme & the consequences later if its not availed by Sept 2016.Starts at 19:00 in the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI5BldAY0EA&t=19m00s

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 18 Nov 2016 18:31

Lilo wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI5BldAY0EA&t=19m00s

Nice speech. After 8th Nov, every single word coming out of Modi's mouth will be taken very seriously by everyone..

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 18 Nov 2016 18:41

Lilo wrote:
JayS wrote:
How reliable is this pices?? So it was leaked after all..?? If this is true and traders knew, then its pretty certain all BJP politicians knew. Which means many in Congress knew too and they got chance to save their assess. But guess Kejri/Mamata/Mulayam/Commie gang didn't get the memo...
The traders are referring to the voluntary black money declaration scheme which ran till Sept 2016.
No one from govt will "tell" them that demonetization will be coming next.
Anyways for the intelligent "ishara hi kaafi hai".

I would say that those businessmen or truants from Gujarat - who have already experienced the direct force of Modi's actions (when he was the CM) against malfunctioning entities - would have not been suprised by this sudden onslaught of demonetization. They would have definitely thought much about his words .. when he warned that there will be more steps on anti-corruption front. By now - any aware & thinking Indian would latch on to every word of Modi and try to understand what it means for him and his daily living.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 18 Nov 2016 18:48

kapilrdave wrote:
VikasRaina wrote: Come what may, PM Modi is setting the bar very high for future PM's of India.
+infinite

We had reached to the point that we had people (a former finance minister no less) stating publicly from the dais "any chu**ya can become PM"

saar, i think it was for CM's post

, in regards to Haryana's electoral victory.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 18 Nov 2016 18:58

Did PM Modi smartly use the very unbelievable event of Trump getting elected as President of USA - to announce the Demonetization in India and thus shield this temporarily tough medicine for the country & its economy - from too excessive a criticism by Indian and foreign press in this initial days ? Most of the world was dazed by Trump's election win and our PM used that well. Most of these criticisms in news papers/TV channels and etc - are anyway over the top, unsubstantiated and often embedded with deliberate misinformation.

PM Modi announced Demonetization and then left for Japan visit for the next 2 days and returned back to urge the country to move on in the demonetization path through some highly charged up rallies (Goa/Karnataka/UP etc) on last Sunday, where the audience were also lifted up by Modi's speeches and were repeatedly appreciating Modi's words.

Once the demonetization got rolled out over the first 3 days or so with minimal disruptions across the country - it would have been very tough to roll it back anyway. Thankfully - this happened. It required that the people accept this demonetization process - by queueing up in front of Banks/ATMs/Post Offices for cash exchange and deposits of old notes and not indulge in any violence or rioting. Thankfully nothing of that sort happened and hope it continues to be the case. I feel most of the country felt dazed by this sudden decision but caught on to Modi's urging to rout the BM infested economy.

If my above sentences appear believeable - then Smart thinking from our PM Modi with regards to the timing of announcement of Demonetization and also his subsequent rallies to charge-up the common man to look forward in the near future to a less costlier economy !!. Even FM Jaitley indicated that he was aware of an impending demonetization but was caught unawares by the date of its announcement.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 18 Nov 2016 18:59

Lilo wrote:
JayS wrote:
How reliable is this pices?? So it was leaked after all..?? If this is true and traders knew, then its pretty certain all BJP politicians knew. Which means many in Congress knew too and they got chance to save their assess. But guess Kejri/Mamata/Mulayam/Commie gang didn't get the memo...
The traders are referring to the voluntary black money declaration scheme which ran till Sept 2016.
No one from govt will "tell" them that demonetization will be coming next.
Anyways for the intelligent "ishara hi kaafi hai".

Modi's warning to black money hoarders in July 2016 about the voluntary declaration scheme & the consequences later if its not availed by Sept 2016.Starts at 19:00 in the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI5BldAY0EA&t=19m00s

Wow! That entire video is a must watch. Blown away.

Also, apart from the contents of the speech, his speaking style and impact are way better than Mumble Mumble Singh and ABV (whose speeches I always found to be underwhelming given the hype about him being an 'orator')

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 18 Nov 2016 19:02

In MG Road today, seen Deutsche/ICICI/Stan Chart/Citi/ Surprise Canara Bank ATm's were working, but HDFC (Which is surprising since these ATM's are attached to branch, and have 3 ATM in one room)/Axis has a huge sign board of ATM's not working. Queues have subsided to a large extent, the queue for exchanging noes have become close to nill

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Nov 2016 19:06

Bart S wrote:ABV (whose speeches I always found to be underwhelming given the hype about him being an 'orator')

Off topic but Tavleen Singh in her new book says that after the 1999 betrayal and 2000 hijack - ABV was a broken man whose oratory never reached the heights it had reached in the emergency years. ABV was not tough enough to face Pakistan - he was a peacenik given to rhetoric like "aar-paar ki ladaai"

vina · Post by **vina** » 18 Nov 2016 19:07

Nitesh wrote:In MG Road today, seen Deutsche/ICICI/Stan Chart/Citi/ Surprise Canara Bank ATm's were working, but HDFC (Which is surprising since these ATM's are attached to branch, and have 3 ATM in one room)/Axis has a huge sign board of ATM's not working. Queues have subsided to a large extent, the queue for exchanging noes have become close to nill

My guess is that the HDFC/Axis/ICICI/ Lot of PSU ATMs are in the process of being recaliberated. The downtime is probably for that. Yes. the exchange line is zero.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 18 Nov 2016 19:08

JayS wrote:How reliable is this pices?? So it was leaked after all..?? If this is true and traders knew, then its pretty certain all BJP politicians knew. Which means many in Congress knew too and they got chance to save their assess. But guess Kejri/Mamata/Mulayam/Commie gang didn't get the memo...

My GUESS is that the message of strong action down the road MAY have been passed along without disclosing any details to preserve secrecy. CONgress and the Communists not only control the major bank unions but also have their folks inserted all levels in the PSU bank hierarchy. They will get most of their cash hoard laundered alright by the PSU employees.

The ones in a bind are the ones who haven't yet got enough of their supporters inside the PSU Banks.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 18 Nov 2016 19:09

vina wrote: My guess is that the HDFC/Axis/ICICI/ Lot of PSU ATMs are in the process of being recaliberated. The downtime is probably for that. Yes. the exchange line is zero.

HDFC is in big mess it seems, where I live nearby they have 2 branches and close to 4 ATM, all are not working

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 18 Nov 2016 19:14

I think the ATM issue is getting tackled by the way of giving priority at rural areas, then Tier III, Tier II and finally Tier 1 cities