India-US relations: News and Discussions III

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Nov 2016 03:28

Thumb rules:

* When the US-China are aligned, that alligment is invariably opposed to that of India
* When one of them (US/China) is aligned with Indian interests, the other is opposed to that allignement

Simply put, India needs to clean up her act and get going. India can certainly become a pole, but I very much doubt with the help of anyone else. And that is OK.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 18 Nov 2016 05:59

NRao wrote: F-16, specifically, I see it coming. Cannot say the same about DTTI, etc.

dtti was a jhoonga a lie, as exposed by brar_w, developing an engine together which is already developed

The only fictitious reason given to buy sanctionable phat panting teens, and now even that is gone....

still reasons will be given that Rafale will be obsolete by 2036 but f-16 will be super-advanced even in 2056

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Nov 2016 07:37

Not directly assciated with India, but ........................ From NYT

President-elect Donald J. Trump has offered the post of national security adviser to Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, a retired intelligence officer.

General Flynn, 57, believes Islamist militancy poses an existential threat on a global scale. It was not clear if he had accepted the position.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Nov 2016 10:37

So far -

NSA - former general Michael T. Flynn
SoS - Giuliani, Mitt Romney or Nikki Haley
DoD - former general James Mattis or Jack Keane

Next week we'll probably find out about AG (Ted Cruz?), Treasury, and Commerce.
Can someone come up with potential impacts for India?

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 Nov 2016 10:46

Rudradev wrote:Trump will ask for Indian boots on the ground to fight ISIS. When we say no, he will say "very sad" and pull out of all defense deals, F-solah block 70 line included

Saar, just a thought...better to have boots on ground in Afghanistan and nwfp than kashmir, no? Fighting wars far away from home is hallmark of big boys and price to pay for security at home it seems

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 18 Nov 2016 10:51

Cain Marko wrote:Saar, just a thought...better to have boots on ground in Afghanistan and nwfp than kashmir, no? Fighting wars far away from home is hallmark of big boys and price to pay for security at home it seems

That could indeed be the case if our biggest threats were not our immediate neighbours, in our case we have 2 and half of them.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 18 Nov 2016 21:02

svinayak wrote:
symontk wrote: Trump might devalue dollar which would pull industries away from China, Europe and India. This would trigger economic growth in US. Impacts would be huge to other parts of world. US standing in the world as a major defence power will still stand since their defence industries are local based

NB: I got this snippet from a source whose ear is closely aligned to few companies
This was always an option.
It will reset the global trade and Banking system.

Why would US do that? This world and its systems are designed by them, for them. They will start a war and fight to the last soldier to keep it. The problem for the US is the system is falling. The RoW recognises this too. And believe me, they are waiting to let the dominoes start toppling over each other. To prevent war, the dollar has to give way and it should happen internally. While China makes a lot of noise about the US control of the ecosystem, they want G2 to stay put. Failure of US is their failure too. I said it in 2013, US and China are joint at the hip. One goes down, so does the other. I see no way out for the Chinese from the predicament. And this is a predicament not a circumstance. While circumstances have options, predicaments have outcomes.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 18 Nov 2016 21:28

the dollar is going to go up in value as the fed raises interest rates to fight inflation. the fed has already determined that essentially full employment has occurred in the US. so now it will focus on fighting inflation.

this means that *if* the world remains relatively stable, the price of gold will go down via the dollar.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 18 Nov 2016 21:29

TSJones wrote:the dollar is going to go up in value as the fed raises interest rates to fight inflation. the fed has already determined that essentially full employment has occurred in the US. so now it will focus on fighting inflation.

And yet white men continue to be angry about the state of the economy....

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 18 Nov 2016 21:33

Hitesh wrote:
TSJones wrote:the dollar is going to go up in value as the fed raises interest rates to fight inflation. the fed has already determined that essentially full employment has occurred in the US. so now it will focus on fighting inflation.
And yet white men continue to be angry about the state of the economy....

what does declining income have to do with a less than 5% unemployment level at this particular time? wages have yet to catch up. the fed doesn't control crummy trade deals. nor have workers shared in the success of gains in productivity.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 Nov 2016 21:38

Kashi wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Saar, just a thought...better to have boots on ground in Afghanistan and nwfp than kashmir, no? Fighting wars far away from home is hallmark of big boys and price to pay for security at home it seems
That could indeed be the case if our biggest threats were not our immediate neighbours, in our case we have 2 and half of them.

Muy thought is that if we are where we are, at least one neighbor will be neutered if not neutralized. Who is the half btw?

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 19 Nov 2016 00:19

TSJones wrote:
Hitesh wrote:
And yet white men continue to be angry about the state of the economy....
what does declining income have to do with a less than 5% unemployment level at this particular time? wages have yet to catch up. the fed doesn't control crummy trade deals. nor have workers shared in the success of gains in productivity.

Wages have already caught up to pre 2007 levels and exceeded them. We are now earning more than ever.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 19 Nov 2016 00:31

Atmavik wrote:
Arjun wrote:The IT services industry has been the main stimulus for India's high growth over last couple of decades...and 60% of that comes from the US. And that edifice is entirely dependent on H1B visas - so no question that the visa scheme is important for India.

Brain drain etc is all overblown....the numbers emigrating are minuscule part of India's population and in fact, in comparison to most countries India's emigration rate is one of the lowest.
Most of us are JavaScript warriors. To call it brain drain is a Uge strech

Whether you like it or not, MOST of the IT industry is run by Indians. Goras are middle and senior management with Injuns manning most other ranks. I'm not sure about your exposure to the rest of industry (meaning non-service aspects), but I am part of a specialized product team and in our domain, it is impossible to go a mile without an Indian leading the charge. We are the largest population invested in IT services and demeaning it by using terms does not do justice. To make my point clearer: Value wise, we are moving up the chain. Of course we will run out of jobs to pull from the US or indeed, Europe on the basis of cost leverage etc. However, we will remain the dominant force in IT.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 19 Nov 2016 01:08

this looks stagnant to me.......

https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?se ... ign=alfred

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Nov 2016 04:49

Trump's new NSA, Michael Flynn, is extremely Turkey-Pasand.

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/17/tur ... -lobbying/

But Trump’s supposed aversion to lobbyists has not harmed the fortunes of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, one of Trump’s earliest and most visible supporters, now a vice chair of the transition team and a rumored frontrunner for the influential post of national security adviser.

Though Flynn is not a lobbyist himself, his company, Flynn Intel Group, is registered with Congress as a lobbying organization, and has a registered lobbyist on its staff. A Flynn Intel Group client, Kamil Ekim Alptekin, a Turkish businessman with real estate, aerospace, and consulting interests, told The Intercept on Thursday that one of his companies, Inovo BV, paid Flynn’s company “tens of thousands of dollars” for analysis on world affairs. On election day, Flynn published an opinion piece for The Hill urging U.S. support for Turkey’s controversial strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and pushing for the extradition of Erdogan’s political rival, Fethullah Gülen, who now resides in Pennsylvania. “From Turkey’s point of view, Washington is harboring Turkey’s Osama bin Laden,” Flynn wrote, on November 8.

...Flynn Intel Group is registered as a lobbyist for Inovo BV, a Dutch company controlled by Alptekin.

Flynn Intel Group had not registered as a lobbying entity until September. That month, [Robert Kelley, general counsel for the Flynn Intel Group] registered as a lobbyist for Inovo BV. (A third filing, from late October, identifies a government relations company called SGR LLC as lobbying Congress on behalf of the Flynn Intel Group.)

Earlier 2016 filings with the Department of Justice from Kelley’s law office identify him as an agent of the National Mobilization Forces, an Iraqi military group trained by the Turkish government and controlled by the former governor of Nineveh province. The filings show that Kelley received a total of $90,000 from the Iraqi group and terminated the relationship in June.

Erdogan has a bought-and-paid for NSA in the Trump Administration.

Any guesses where the Levant war will go from here?

Also, we know exactly where Erdogan's Turkey stands on India, Pakistan, and Paki claims on Kashmir. Would an NSA who is also an Erdogan lobbyist be Pak-pasand in his views on this matter? Actually, given that he is making (his firm, now controlled by his son, will continue to make) millions of $$$ from Turkey... can Michael Flynn afford NOT to be Pak-pasand in his functioning as NSA?

Moreover, Donald Trump himself has admitted to a soft corner for Erdogan's Turkey, and a vested interest there:

The first time Bannon asked Trump about U.S. foreign policy toward Turkey, Trump volunteered that he had business interests there.

“I have a little conflict of interest, because I have a major, major building in Istanbul,” Trump said. “It’s called Trump Towers. Two towers, instead of one. Not the usual one, it’s two. And I’ve gotten to know Turkey very well.”

A little later, Bannon circled back, asking Trump to explain why his conflict of interest should not bother voters.

“They say, ‘Hey look, this guy’s got vested business interests all over the world. How do I know he’s going to stand up to Turkey?’ ” Bannon said.

Trump did not directly address the question.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Nov 2016 05:31

Gen. (rtd) Flynn is also a Putin pasand.

IF Trump selects someone like Romney as SoS, then we will get to know who is runing the FP.

Interesting times.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Nov 2016 05:56

NPR just reported that (someone claimed) Flynn is in favor of teaming up with Russia AND Iran to deal with ISIS, et al. And then deal with Iran and Russia after that - like the US did during WWII with the Soviets.

This Flynn guy has come full circle. A registered democrat, was elevated and then fired by Obama.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 19 Nov 2016 06:07

TSJones wrote:this looks stagnant to me.......

https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?se ... ign=alfred

Go to the end of the graph on the right side and hover at the red bar and you will see that in 2016, they are making at least $2k more than in 2009. The income has stayed within inflation. Inflation has not eroded the median household's buying power. It is just that they are seeing healthcare costs and some food go way up. But other than that, everything else has pretty much stayed within the median household buying power.

So they have basically recovered to before the Great Recession began and will continue to go up.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 19 Nov 2016 06:22

the official inflation figures are rubbish

also many people are putting way more hours and doing multiple jobs to keep earning same level

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 19 Nov 2016 06:24

Michael Flynn has Lashkar e Taiba in his cross hairs. Can that be bad for us?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJnW8HR ... e=youtu.be

1.30 onwards and tweets too.

I'll take him over the Susan Rice crowd

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 19 Nov 2016 06:26

It seems so many countries around the globe have Trump by his towers that it may be difficult for him to run his foreign policy without any conflict of interest.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 19 Nov 2016 06:36

Forget foreign policy. Chew on this instead:
Trump said he will go after the creators of ISIS (AFTER calling out Clinton as the creator).
James Clapper is in the crapper. He will be in incredible trouble in 3 months or so, once Trump gets acquainted with the inner workings and machinations. Flynn knows for sure... and which is why media has been training their crosshairs on him. All it takes is for one thread to be pulled for the sham to unravel itself. Any (in)sane Paki gen would take his chances NOW and attack India. Because doing so after 6 months will be impossible. Sorry to bring in India in this context, but that's where the Trump bandwagon is going!

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 Nov 2016 22:41

So far DT is on the right path when the Alt-Left paper Washington Post condemns them on this:

Trump’s security picks deepen Muslim worries about an anti-Islamic White House

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 Nov 2016 23:11

@TSJ; @Hitesh; @Surya

The best measure of economic scene for the average American. The householders are getting a decreasing slice of the GDP pie. This is where the real pain is. The chart is on wikipedia but seems to be from FED.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 19 Nov 2016 23:22

Rudradev wrote:Trump's new NSA, Michael Flynn, is extremely Turkey-Pasand.

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/17/tur ... -lobbying/

But Trump’s supposed aversion to lobbyists has not harmed the fortunes of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, one of Trump’s earliest and most visible supporters, now a vice chair of the transition team and a rumored frontrunner for the influential post of national security adviser.

Though Flynn is not a lobbyist himself, his company, Flynn Intel Group, is registered with Congress as a lobbying organization, and has a registered lobbyist on its staff. A Flynn Intel Group client, Kamil Ekim Alptekin, a Turkish businessman with real estate, aerospace, and consulting interests, told The Intercept on Thursday that one of his companies, Inovo BV, paid Flynn’s company “tens of thousands of dollars” for analysis on world affairs. On election day, Flynn published an opinion piece for The Hill urging U.S. support for Turkey’s controversial strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and pushing for the extradition of Erdogan’s political rival, Fethullah Gülen, who now resides in Pennsylvania. “From Turkey’s point of view, Washington is harboring Turkey’s Osama bin Laden,” Flynn wrote, on November 8.

FLynn has understood Turkey's position in the Eurasian politics. Without Turkey's cooperation Eurasian politics cannot be engaged and US will be sidelined in Eurasian politics. The Atlantic power will be diminished if they are left out of the Eurasian power politics.

Putin has engaged Turkey to make sure Turkey supports Russian position in the region.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Nov 2016 00:21

svinayak wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Trump's new NSA, Michael Flynn, is extremely Turkey-Pasand.

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/17/tur ... -lobbying/

FLynn has understood Turkey's position in the Eurasian politics. Without Turkey's cooperation Eurasian politics cannot be engaged and US will be sidelined in Eurasian politics. The Atlantic power will be diminished if they are left out of the Eurasian power politics.

Putin has engaged Turkey to make sure Turkey supports Russian position in the region.

Geopolitics is out of the window. I will wait for the selection of Treasury and State, but thus far, none of the selections care about anyone. They believe in using their boots to make impressions.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Nov 2016 00:45

US will change course and cooperate with Russia in the region. That is geo politics

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Nov 2016 00:51

Somebody asked how will the dollar devalue

1. Crash of the bond market since it is in bubble
2. Major trading countries will switch from dollar to other currency- China yuan
3. Gold prices will go high

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Nov 2016 01:44

Will cooperate - as the needs arise, for the benefit of the US and as time passes will give into nothing.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 20 Nov 2016 02:19

NRao wrote:
Geopolitics is out of the window. I will wait for the selection of Treasury and State, but thus far, none of the selections care about anyone. They believe in using their boots to make impressions.

This is true. They can run the US into the ground with gross mismanagement. DoS is what Rudy wants and my guess is that he'll get it. If an investment banker gets Treasury, it could mean big trouble.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 20 Nov 2016 03:08

svinayak wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Trump's new NSA, Michael Flynn, is extremely Turkey-Pasand.

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/17/tur ... -lobbying/

FLynn has understood Turkey's position in the Eurasian politics. Without Turkey's cooperation Eurasian politics cannot be engaged and US will be sidelined in Eurasian politics. The Atlantic power will be diminished if they are left out of the Eurasian power politics.

Putin has engaged Turkey to make sure Turkey supports Russian position in the region.

It is much simpler than that IMHO. Trump and Flynn just arent sufficently updated about Turkey`s islamist leanings. Trump has business interests there. Flynn might have biased views of Turkey considering his association with NATO and interaction with turkish army officers who are predominantly secular and modern. Besides Turkey was the ideal `secular` islamic country for long.
Fethullah gulen was a fellow islamist and an ally of Erdogan. Erdogan`s differences with gulen are due to power sharing and not ideological. Anyone peddling Osama/Gulen comparison doesnt know nuts.

Rammpal · Post by **Rammpal** » 20 Nov 2016 05:38

Bhurishravas wrote:
It is much simpler than that IMHO. Trump and Flynn just arent sufficently updated about Turkey`s islamist leanings. Trump has business interests there. Flynn might have biased views of Turkey considering his association with NATO and interaction with turkish army officers who are predominantly secular and modern. Besides Turkey was the ideal `secular` islamic country for long.
Fethullah gulen was a fellow islamist and an ally of Erdogan. Erdogan`s differences with gulen are due to power sharing and not ideological. Anyone peddling Osama/Gulen comparison doesnt know nuts.

....and, commotion in the street, i.e.: Putin's jet getting shot down, and subsequent Errdogan ball busting by Putin has Nothing to do with any of this ?

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 20 Nov 2016 07:58

NRao wrote:Will cooperate - as the needs arise, for the benefit of the US and as time passes will give into nothing.

You already lost once you co-operated with russi's (they win without firing a shot). As the time passes you will have noting to give

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 20 Nov 2016 08:51

Looks like NY Times is having major takleef with POTUS-elect meeting Indian businessmen.

Donald Trump Pauses Transition Work to Meet With Indian Business Partners

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 20 Nov 2016 15:55

Rudradev wrote:Trump's new NSA, Michael Flynn, is extremely Turkey-Pasand.

Rudradev ji,
I disagree.

If you read his interview here Trump adviser Michael T. Flynn on his dinner with Putin and why Russia Today is just like CNN , Flynn comes across as an independent thinker.

This quote is a radical departure from the thinking of the deep state of the past 60 odd years.

FLYNN: Because we have zero strategic thinking out of our White House. And we have a national security structure that has lost its way when it comes to strategic thinking and strategic decision-making.

I am open to be corrected.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 20 Nov 2016 16:40

Rammpal wrote: ....and, commotion in the street, i.e.: Putin's jet getting shot down, and subsequent Errdogan ball busting by Putin has Nothing to do with any of this ?

What ball busting. Erdogan did some nice takkiya and gave a nice ego massage to Putin and got freedom in Syria and Iraq in return. A very good deal I would say. Dunno about any commotion in street either. Erdogan is fairly popular.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 20 Nov 2016 16:48

We give too much credit to the whites. And despite clear and obvious mistakes.
2nd Iraq war, Libya.
The way Pakis have played with them over a long period of time.

Flynn will learn the rope tricks but till then it would be unfair to analyse his views and fair to criticise his and Trump`s naivete.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 20 Nov 2016 16:51

With Trump's super budget planned for Military, one of three will be in their cross hairs, China, Iran or Turkey...after all With Russia no longer the bad guy, some other country has make it to the axis of evil and justify this spending.

It could be Iran, non nuclear, funding from Saudis, Roos gets breathing space etc.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Nov 2016 18:29

Paul wrote:With Trump's super budget planned for Military, one of three will be in their cross hairs, China, Iran or Turkey...after all With Russia no longer the bad guy, some other country has make it to the axis of evil and justify this spending.

It could be Iran, non nuclear, funding from Saudis, Roos gets breathing space etc.

He will first have to figure out if he can afford to run into a trillion dollar budget deficit and if fed has to run new QE program to support his spending

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 20 Nov 2016 18:39

So nobody, not even Trump, or Obama has the guts to take on the Military Industrial Complex.

He is not the Messiah to lead USA out of the morass.