Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

[Yagnasri]

Now who is dhoti shivering?

China to raise US arms sale to India with Trump administration
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... 867242.cms

Indian CPM members only. Lizardees do not wear dhothis.

[shiv]

I just wanted to share this telling image. I followed about 150-175 km of railway track in northern Tibet running parallel to a highway - marking the longer bridges (there are dozens of short and long bridges). The terrain is flat and suitable for roads and rail - but the presence of shallow streams makes it necessary for the railway to use bridges while the highway sometimes simply goes over the stream. This area ranges from 500 - 700 km from the Indian border. Not out of reach of Indian attack aircraft

[Kashi]

Is China setting up the pretext for taking more aggressive actions against us in the near future? The over-the-top reaction to Agni, troop movement and now this bit about US sales to India, when we haven't even purchased that many lethal arms from them. Surely M777 and Apaches have not spooked them that much.

I guess that they'll shortly make some aggressive moves on the border (either alone or with Pakistan) and blame India for escalating the situation, perhaps using CPEC security as an excuse. We are also likely to see Pakis fire a few more pindigenously developed missiles, rockets, weapons systems etc. I suppose the recent NoKo nuclear tests may have given a boost of confidence in terms of design validation.

They probably believe that they'll probably get away with it as Russia did in Ukraine and that no one else will stand by our side (probably correct as well). They may wish to do one more land grab before we bring our forces and equipment up a notch.

[shiv]

I guess that they'll shortly make some aggressive moves on the border (either alone or with Pakistan)

The Chinese posture at the border is not conducive to any major aggressive moves without prior mobilization. In fact it is India that is better placed to make aggressive moves. I think we read too much into newspaper reports and imagine that we are innocent bunnies sitting defencelessly while the Chinese are aggressive wolves trying to bang the door down. That is not an exact description - the Chinese have vast power but they use verbal power and rhetoric first. Militarily they will need to move in forces to make "aggressive moves". Part of the reason for this thread is to try and define what the Chinese have, what they can do and possible responses without speculation and "let me scare the shit out of myself" scenarios which is the norm for Indians and Indian media

[Kashi]

The Chinese posture at the border is not conducive to any major aggressive moves without prior mobilization. In fact it is India that is better placed to make aggressive moves. I think we read too much into newspaper reports and imagine that we are innocent bunnies sitting defencelessly while the Chinese are aggressive wolves trying to bang the door down. That is not an exact description - the Chinese have vast power but they use verbal power and rhetoric first. Militarily they will need to move in forces to make "aggressive moves". Part of the reason for this thread is to try and define what the Chinese have, what they can do and possible responses without speculation and "let me scare the shit out of myself" scenarios which is the norm for Indians and Indian media

When I say the border, I do not mean only the McMahon line, it also includes the LoC. I do not fully understand the details of forces' organizations along the Tibetan frontier as well as you and other experts, but how does one define "major aggressive moves"? Despite their posture not being "conducive to any major aggressive moves without prior mobilization", it is the Chinese who regularly intrude into our territory, leading to a standoff before they go back. How about we return the favour for a change- I admit it's possible that we do and it usually goes unreported, but then there are whispers...

What I was speculating about was more of a Joint Sino-Pak "initiative" along the LoC, with a Paki mukhauta and the all-weather-friend proving "moral, diplomatic and logistic support". I was only speculating on this based on as you said "what the Chinese have, what they can do and possible responses without speculation" and also if they are showing signs of actually intending to do what they can do with what they have. And if yes, how do we respond to it.

Not sure how that construes as dhoti shiver...

[shiv]

but how does one define "major aggressive moves"? Despite their posture not being "conducive to any major aggressive moves without prior mobilization", it is the Chinese who regularly intrude into our territory, leading to a standoff before they go back. How about we return the favour for a change- I admit it's possible that we do and it usually goes unreported, but then there are whispers...

From the Indian media you only hear about times when the Chinese come in and knock something down or build something in an area whose location is disputed. After an incident is reported the Indian media never go back to the same news they reported to ask if the Chinese have vacated. Only those who follow media announcements usually hear from army sources that minor incidents occur but the border is calm with no major incidents. In fact, to use an analogy on the Pak border - have you ever seen an Indian news item that says "Indian army resorts to unprovoked firing". ? It is always "Pakistan resorts to unprovoked firing". From this we get the impression that our soldiers sit at the borders only to bend over and get their butts kicked. This is wrong. No aggressive move made by Indian soldiers will ever be reported in Indian media. But if the Chinese or Pakistani media report it - it will be denied. That is the nature of information from the frontier

A major aggressive move by the Chinese would mean shooting. Not putting up a flag or knocking down stones. The reason I ask people not to sit 500 km up in the air and speak of LAC and border but to use available tools like Google Earth to actually go down to the areas and see what can be seen is because the Chinese really do not maintain ready aggressive forces at the border. They have border guards but do not keep heavy weaponry needed for a major assault. It is another matter that they can move in heavy weaponry at short notice, but even that will be visible on the routes and roads they must follow. That is why i ask people to look at the roads and routes that are visible on Google Earth.

If the Chinese start moving in heavy weapons - you will be sure to hear about it and that is when you can expect a major incident. All along the borders - India maintains a heavy army presence which is not mirrored by the Chinese. The explanation for this has been posted in informative articles linked on this thread.

[Kashi]

If the Chinese start moving in heavy weapons - you will be sure to hear about it and that is when you can expect a major incident. All along the borders - India maintains a heavy army presence which is not mirrored by the Chinese. The explanation for this has been posted in informative articles linked on this thread.

All I am speculating is that the recent Chinese public posture-raising a stink over Agni, taking up "weapons" sales with Trump- may be a precursor to moving heavy weapons into the theatre or increased posturing along the LoC.

[shiv]

All I am speculating is that the recent Chinese public posture-raising a stink over Agni, taking up "weapons" sales with Trump- may be a precursor to moving heavy weapons into the theatre or increased posturing along the LoC.

It is OK to speculate. But when there are 100,000 different things to speculate why concentrate on just one scenario? What is the evidence that things will play out in this way and not some other way? Why would someone else be wrong in speculating that no weapons will be moved at all but a sudden devastating nuclear attack will be conducted from deep inside China and from Pakistan?

We can scare ourselves silly with speculation. We do that all the time. Anything can happen at any time

If all speculation were to be eliminated the only thing we will be left with is facts that we can see on the ground. It so happens that this is the one thing that has received no attention either in the media, or in scholarly articles, or in speculation. Let us look at the ground situation and try and see what the Chinese can achieve and what we can achieve. Then, assuming the Chinese have brains we can speculate on what are their real advantages in conducting a particular operation and what they could possibly gain from it without allowing India a chance to retaliate or make counter moves.

This is much more boring and time consuming than speculation about things that we can use to scare ourselves shitless.

[Kashi]

It is OK to speculate. But when there are 100,000 different things to speculate why concentrate on just one scenario? What is the evidence that things will play out in this way and not some other way? Why would someone else be wrong in speculating that no weapons will be moved at all but a sudden devastating nuclear attack will be conducted from deep inside China and from Pakistan?

You mean it's unreasonable to speculate on what may happen on the India-China frontier in the near future in a thread specifically started to discuss such scenarios? There are 100,000 things to speculate as you said, and speculated they will be- in appropriate threads and context.

If all speculation were to be eliminated the only thing we will be left with is facts that we can see on the ground. It so happens that this is the one thing that has received no attention either in the media, or in scholarly articles, or in speculation. Let us look at the ground situation and try and see what the Chinese can achieve and what we can achieve. Then, assuming the Chinese have brains we can speculate on what are their real advantages in conducting a particular operation and what they could possibly gain from it without allowing India a chance to retaliate or make counter moves.

This is much more boring and time consuming than speculation about things that we can use to scare ourselves shitless.

This is why we speculate, because then we gets fact and insights such as yours and now I would like to think that I am better informed (relatively speaking) than I was before this discussion. Once again, speculating on things does not equal to scaring oneself shitless- at least I don't think I was trying to do that when I started it.

[shiv]

You mean it's unreasonable to speculate on what may happen on the India-China frontier in the near future in a thread specifically started to discuss such scenarios? There are 100,000 things to speculate as you said, and speculated they will be- in appropriate threads and context.

No. It is not unreasonable to speculate. It is pointless to speculate with hazy details and the complete absence of relevant facts makes any answer another exercise in speculation. Each and every one of 100,000 scenarios of speculation can only be answered by one or more of another 100,000 different speculative answers. This is the current norm for public discourse

[Philip]

The huge size of Tibet and the longdistances to potential infra targets-road,rail,bridges,etc., is why the IAF must abandon its ostrich-like attitude and invest asap in a couple of sqds of dedicated bombers.Two sqds. of SU-34s would be the easiest to induct with some commonality with our MKIs. Backfires even better but require major avionics upgrades and would cost much more.

[chola]

The huge size of Tibet and the longdistances to potential infra targets-road,rail,bridges,etc., is why the IAF must abandon its ostrich-like attitude and invest asap in a couple of sqds of dedicated bombers.Two sqds. of SU-34s would be the easiest to induct with some commonality with our MKIs. Backfires even better but require major avionics upgrades and would cost much more.

Oi. Again, what did shivji just said? The chini do not and cannot place a major offensive presence in Tibet because of terrain. Not only terrain but more importantly because of the geo-politics in East Asia which means the chini main front and overwhelming pre-positioning of forces must be East. AWAY from India. We have SUPERIORITY in forces along the border now. At this moment. What need is there to wait for these things you ask for?

And all of these shitty ruskie "weapons" you want.

I said years ago we scare ourselves shitless with a miscalculation of our major threats. We keep hearing we need all these new phoren gori systems here and now because of Pak and PRC. We do not. We have more than enough to take them on NOW. We have time to produce and induce our systems and build up an industrial base. We are NOT facing even second rate military powers in TSP and Cheen.

We really need to push for war here and now to retake Aksai Chin and not wait for SU-34s and Backfires which by the time we get them will mean we'll have new chini systems to worry about requiring even newer phoren gear.

More importantly, we must fight an offensive war fight right now to stop this stupid dhoti shivering once and for all.

[kit]

China very likely will initiate a border war at a time of their chosing .. most probably at a time of political transition / major strife inside India. The only way is to prepare for a very high intensity two front war backed with tactical nuclear weapons.
It's again likely that Chinese command structures will be dispersed in the 2nd tier defences to negate the effects of high precision strikes with weapons like brahmos.
India needs to build up offensive defense weapons and develop ASAT capability and asymmetric warfare capabilities and be able to threaten and strike the highly populous and economically significant regions on china's eastern sea board.
A naval Base / port rights in Singapore or Philippine's for Indian subs could be a priority

[chola]

China very likely will initiate a border war at a time of their chosing .. most probably at a time of political transition / major strife inside India. The only way is to prepare for a very high intensity two front war backed with tactical nuclear weapons.

Why wait for them to initiate a border war of their choosing? Why don't we initiate a war of OUR choosing.

[Marten]

China very likely will initiate a border war at a time of their chosing .. most probably at a time of political transition / major strife inside India. The only way is to prepare for a very high intensity two front war backed with tactical nuclear weapons.

Why wait for them to initiate a border war of their choosing? Why don't we initiate a war of OUR choosing.

Why would India initiate a war with China?
Please list the reasons in a cogent manner.

[Pratyush]

The huge size of Tibet and the longdistances to potential infra targets-road,rail,bridges,etc., is why the IAF must abandon its ostrich-like attitude and invest asap in a couple of sqds of dedicated bombers.Two sqds. of SU-34s would be the easiest to induct with some commonality with our MKIs. Backfires even better but require major avionics upgrades and would cost much more.

What will 2 sq of 34 do that 2 additional sq of 30 cannot.

[Singha]

we need a universal air launched missile like JASSM-ER, harpoon-ER or JASSM that even F-16 sized planes can carry. but since we struggling with nirbhay its a long call. used in some bulk they can damage a lot of infra.

lets get the garuda , saaw and garudamma into production and service on all IAF a/c for the time being. special small lots of weapons specific to small sets of a/c (KH59 for su30, popeye for Mirage2k, scalp for rafale) definitely do not hack it in this day.

for the really long range targets, the ground launched nirbhay will do the job. no need for specialized bombers like tu22 as our targets are right next door.

[chola]

Why wait for them to initiate a border war of their choosing? Why don't we initiate a war of OUR choosing.

Why would India initiate a war with China?
Please list the reasons in a cogent manner.

1) Aksai Chin. It is ours. It must be recovered at some point,

2) Geo-political standing. A quick successful war against a perceived major power in China would make India the dominant force in Asia,

3) Pre-emptive strike, if as Kit believes that Cheen will chose a war when conditions are right for them then it is incumbent upon us to chose a war when the conditions are right for us,

4) Medicine for dhoti shivering.

[kit]

The Chinese strategy would most likely to focus on gaining territory that will hold India at a disadvantage tactically .. if someone can look along the borders the north eastern borders as well as Pakistan border with India ( yes China will focus on both so as to maximize their strategic aims) ..an overwhelming onslaught can take in key Indian territories and rapid reinforcements along china border and the CPEC roads can be made to stand out Indian assaults along Pakistan border as well . ( thats the real objective for the CPEC ..@@@k trade )

I estimate the time period inside a week maybe less .. an estimate is just a few days !!

They will call for a ceasefire once their objectives are made. Would India keep on hammering against such a build up with reinforcements coming up ?
Would India be able to withstand intense international political pressure to end the war ?

The only option would be overwhelming nuclear response against their tactical formations.

I would say India does have a need for operationally deployed tactical nukes to take out such an onslaught when fought on a time limited scale .

Strategic weapons seem pretty much useless since China would be loath to bring war to its sensitive eastern regions by way of Indian strategic missiles.They do think Indian leaders are not that willing to strike population centers .

[chola]

The Chinese strategy would most likely to focus on gaining territory that will hold India at a disadvantage tactically .. if someone can look along the borders the north eastern borders as well as Pakistan border with India ( yes China will focus on both so as to maximize their strategic aims) ..an overwhelming onslaught can take in key Indian territories and rapid reinforcements along china border and the CPEC roads can be made to stand out Indian assaults along Pakistan border as well . ( thats the real objective for the CPEC ..@@@k trade )

I estimate the time period inside a week maybe less .. an estimate is just a few days !!

In just a few days?!? Do we dhoti shiver professionally?

How did you come up with this estimate?! Where will the chini forces needed for this onslaught come from?

Have you not read this thread? India enjoys a preponderance of force along the border.

[kit]

The Chinese strategy would most likely to focus on gaining territory that will hold India at a disadvantage tactically .. if someone can look along the borders the north eastern borders as well as Pakistan border with India ( yes China will focus on both so as to maximize their strategic aims) ..an overwhelming onslaught can take in key Indian territories and rapid reinforcements along china border and the CPEC roads can be made to stand out Indian assaults along Pakistan border as well . ( thats the real objective for the CPEC ..@@@k trade )

I estimate the time period inside a week maybe less .. an estimate is just a few days !!

In just a few days?!? Do we dhoti shiver professionally?

How did you come up with this estimate?! Where will the chini forces needed for this onslaught come from?

Have you not read this thread? India enjoys a preponderance of force along the border.

Boss ..Numerical superiority may not count for much in modern warfare .. ability to bring massive firepower at short notice reinforcement's and technologies to negate the enemy advantages do ..
Not meant as "shivering " or whatever but ..it pays to have a good stick in hand when you have a bully as neighbour ..bigger the better

[nirav]

Kit Saar, I think not a few days, by in 10 hours they'd be in Delhi.

Global times article claimed so.

[ShauryaT]

we need a universal air launched missile like JASSM-ER, harpoon-ER or JASSM that even F-16 sized planes can carry. but since we struggling with nirbhay its a long call. used in some bulk they can damage a lot of infra.

lets get the garuda , saaw and garudamma into production and service on all IAF a/c for the time being. special small lots of weapons specific to small sets of a/c (KH59 for su30, popeye for Mirage2k, scalp for rafale) definitely do not hack it in this day.

for the really long range targets, the ground launched nirbhay will do the job. no need for specialized bombers like tu22 as our targets are right next door.

Prahaar, Pragati and Prithvi are suitable for the job too, till Nirbhay steps in. We need a clear articulation for BM under 1000 KM to be for non-strategic purposes on China front. Our CEP under 1000KM is in single digits, it will do the job with large payloads.

[shiv]

Can someone help here? This appears to be a PLA camp 25 km from the border and 50 km from Tawang.

The coordinates are 28° 0'25.61"N 91°57'51.70"E

What is the cross shaped thing? It appears to be a pre-surveyed rocket/mijjile launch site to me, It is 100 meters by 130 meters

[manjgu]

a) one of the reasons india keeps more forces on indo chini border is the lack of lateral movement capabilities/infra... the reason that chini keep their forces behind is the extra ordinary distances of the logistics train and also the knowledge that india is not going to launch hostilities b) i had seen extensive tunneling for storage purpose as u go ahead of tawang..i believe this is also the case on chinese side ( to answer one of shiv's queries of not seeing infra to house war stores). c) i was talking to some one who said it takes almost 7 years for a mountain road/sides to stabilise... so even if u make a road today in the moutanins it cant be fully utilised as the sides will keep on falling very often.

[shiv]

The Chinese strategy would most likely to focus on gaining territory that will hold India at a disadvantage tactically .. if someone can look along the borders the north eastern borders as well as Pakistan border with India ( yes China will focus on both so as to maximize their strategic aims) ..an overwhelming onslaught can take in key Indian territories and rapid reinforcements along china border and the CPEC roads can be made to stand out Indian assaults along Pakistan border as well . ( thats the real objective for the CPEC ..@@@k trade )
.

Kit you need to do a lot more detail than that. Unfortunately you have fudged the detail and have written " if someone can look along the borders the north eastern borders ". Don't mean to be rude but why don;t you become that "someone". I have been doing that in great detail from page 1 of this thread and on page 10 of this Ramayana you are asking "Someone tell me who is Sita?"

Again I don't mean to be insulting but this is typical Indian dhoti shivering with zero attention to where exactly the Chinese may come and where they can go. Sometimes I feel that no thread should be more than 5 pages long because anything written earlier than 5 pages back is not read.

My idea of keeping this discussion going is to mark out all the border passes, roads and Chinese supply lines. I will do next to nothing about marking Indian helipads or Indian forces. The Chinese or someone else can do that as I am sure they will.

The scenario you have written is nonsense unless you can flesh out detail of which roads and passes the Chinese will use and what forces they will use, where exactly territory can be gained (and where they will lose territory) and what will happen if Indian forces decide not to keep their thumbs in their musharrafs and watch

[Marten]

Shiv saar, is there a tool that we could use to divide the areas into sectors and then have folks scan their AOR? Similar to what we did for the Malaysian airline?

BR can take the lead in crowd-sourced scanning of Chinese held areas of Tibet. Am sure a lot of vela IT folks would be happy to contribute.

[nirav]

Shiv Saar,

While your efforts are laudable I doubt if it would have much impact on dhoti shivering folks who are convinced that the PLA can rumble down from Tibet and defeat us whenever they want.

Rivers and mountains are easily moved than man's nature. - some proverb.

If a shiverer, no amount of factual discussion can sway the person.
It might be beneficial for folks who are in between, but I'm guessing they'd be few in number.

[shiv]

Shiv saar, is there a tool that we could use to divide the areas into sectors and then have folks scan their AOR? Similar to what we did for the Malaysian airline?

BR can take the lead in crowd-sourced scanning of Chinese held areas of Tibet. Am sure a lot of vela IT folks would be happy to contribute.

The Malaysian airline analogy is PERFECT. The reason why crowdsourcing was used was because the images were current and of sufficient resolution.

The image posted below shows where the Chinese came in in 1962 with some names. At least the shiverer should look at one of these areas in great detail and compare with 1962 war stories as available on BR. That would give one an idea of the terrain and the places where the Chinese can come in.

Part of what I am doing is to try and identify all other areas where they can possibly come. There are some such areas but not many. I am not joking when I say that there is a wall of mountains. People who say aircraft can fly across mountains need to go into some detail about where those aircraft will come from and what they will do after crossing the mountains. This military forum is useless in many ways because it is only a timepass diversion from nukkad and love and romance threads. No one is really bothered about doing any reading or dogs work. Sorry for the rant

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/k56 ... x1i0kj.png

[Marten]

Perhaps you can talk about it during the meet? Nothing like it!

[Lalmohan]

This military forum is useless in many ways because it is only a timepass diversion from nukkad and love and romance threads. No one is really bothered about doing any reading or dogs work.

guilty as charged saar!

[shiv]

Of course - in a conversation it is easy to get certain facts across, but overall Indian commentators and observers tend to do something that is an analogy of what we discovered and pointed out with respect to the media when speaking of India and Pakistan

There are some standard buzzwords, phrases and expressions like "India and Pakistan are nuclear armed arch enemies wit ha dispute over Kashmir. Pakistan alleges that 100000000000 Indian troops have killed 800,0000,0000000 kashmiri civilans. India denies this. The two nations have been to war X times the last time under the hindu fundamentalist BJP government. India accuses Pakistan of sponsoring the Mumbai attacks - an accusation denied by Pakistan"

Similarly the vast majority of references to India and China mention Indian defeat and the rise of China and its huge armed forces while India's people yearn for prestige by celebrating the 1999 nuclear tests even as 60% of people defecate in the open". Chine has built first class roads right up to the border and has railway lines that can transport 200,000 troops in a few days. Indian mountain passes need a month's trekking and Indian slothful defence acquisition process mired in corruption has delayed the modernization of the Indian forces. India's light combat aircraft was conceived over 30 years ago and is yet to enter service while China's first squadrons of fifth generation jets posing a credible challenge to the USs F-35 are entering service

These things are picked up and vomited out by a lot of people - including "experts". But when you look at the ground - things don't appear that simple. But who looks at the ground. Everyone is quite happy to lick up and revomit the same stuff that appears over and over and over again.

Mentally Indians tend to rank the country as third best or less. Logically those who we rank 1 and 2 will kick our asses any day any time any place. In fact most Indians rank America as one and in unguarded moments Indians speak like Amricans and say how Badass America will deal with China. It is only when they descend to become Indian again they are full of anxieties about China. And those whom 1 and 2 help - like Pakistan, will also kick our asses and they all have plans to do it together, simultaneously. In short we already have all the answers. These represent Indians' "comfort zone" Asking people to think out of this box is resisted with anger and protests

[shiv]

This military forum is useless in many ways because it is only a timepass diversion from nukkad and love and romance threads. No one is really bothered about doing any reading or dogs work.

guilty as charged saar!

LOL. BRFs dominance as a place for military and strat discussions waned as the non mil forums became more prominent and popular - while the mil stuff became a side issue.

[Lalmohan]

well in my case that drift occurred because there was increasing bad behaviour on almost all threads by posters typing before thinking, way too many personal attacks and so on. i am interested in reading insight and thought through posts, but the rest of it is tiresome. refuge can be found in more frivolous areas...

rant over.

[manjgu]

Shiv...i think your attempt to deride any contra point as dhoti shivering derails the discussion. all including you can put their points and try to prove / disprove them. with info thats available thru Google earth etc..we can get a rough picture but not the whole truth. I told u about tunneling i saw on the indian side to hold stores...but i have no clue about size of the caves etc. what and how much does it hold etc ? Just looking at a particular snapshot on google earth while useful does not tell the whole picture... a bridge allright but what category, strength, type ...a camp on google earth could be a army camp for troops or maybe a road construction party camp. You are bringing useful info to the discussion but others also have a point. to get a more clear picture our efforts need to be supplemented with info gleaned from talking to people who are really on the ground and in know of things..

[Rakesh]

I do not know where else to post this. Admins, if there is a more suitable thread...please move it there.

The Aksai Chin Blunder
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/the- ... n-blunder/

India-Bhutan Ties: Perceptional Differences and the China Factor
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spot ... na-factor/

[shiv]

Shiv...i think your attempt to deride any contra point as dhoti shivering derails the discussion. all including you can put their points and try to prove / disprove them. with info thats available thru Google earth etc..we can get a rough picture but not the whole truth. I told u about tunneling i saw on the indian side to hold stores...but i have no clue about size of the caves etc. what and how much does it hold etc ? Just looking at a particular snapshot on google earth while useful does not tell the whole picture... a bridge allright but what category, strength, type ...a camp on google earth could be a army camp for troops or maybe a road construction party camp. You are bringing useful info to the discussion but others also have a point. to get a more clear picture our efforts need to be supplemented with info gleaned from talking to people who are really on the ground and in know of things..

There is an enormous gap between what I have been trying to say and what you are trying to defend.

It was known from 1959 that the Chinese would attack. It was also known where they would attack, But preparations were not made mainly because Nehru bungled and Krishnamenon depended on an incompetent Kaul and kicked out Gen Thimmaiah. Krishamenon stated that he would win any war with diplomacy. Nehru lied in parliament and when his lie was discovered he suddenly told the army to go and handle a situation that has been building up for many years

A lot of people fear that this history will repeat itself. This fear cannot be "disproved". We have to accept that the Chinese may attack again

What I have consistently called as dhoti shivering are the posting of theoretical scenarios where people express an opinion (which sounds like fear to me) that the Chinese will suddenly come down and capture territory with or without Paki cooperation and we will be in big trouble. I cannot, prove, disprove or answer such fears/questions

The only thing that is possible is to try and inform people that the Chinese cannot attack at any spot along every millimeter of the border and that their roads may be good but they physically cannot have roads along every millimeter of the border. There are certain areas where the Chinese can come in. There are certain areas where they can use vehicles. There are certain areas where they could use special forces. It is possible to look at Google Earth and identify and mark these areas and then reach some kind of judgement on what sort of response is possible by India.

That is all. Questions that express fears that the Chinese will kick our butts cannot be disproved. But ignorance can be removed from open minds

[shiv]

Few images can illustrate the geography between Arunachal and Tibet as well as this one. Tibet is on the left (North) and Arunachal on the right.

Two airfields are marked by red circles
1. Nyingchi airfield in Tibet - situated at an altitude of 2900 meters
2. Tuting airfield in Arunachal - situated at an altitude of 470 meters

A white line is drawn between the two airfields - it is 64 km long. The line rises up to the Tibet Arunachal border which is at 4500 meters - a rise of 1600 meters just 15 km from Nyingchi airfield. There are beautiful Chinese roads along the river valley next to Nyngchi airfield. But no good motorable road can be made to the border which is on a mountain ridgeline above a steep cliff.

From this mountain ridgeline Tuting airfield is 50 km away and the airfield is at just 470 meters altitude. Less than Bengaluru

Google for effect of altitude on the take off weight of aircraft.

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/k56 ... pglsu3.jpg

[rohitvats]

I do not know where else to post this. Admins, if there is a more suitable thread...please move it there.

The Aksai Chin Blunder
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/the- ... n-blunder/

India-Bhutan Ties: Perceptional Differences and the China Factor
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spot ... na-factor/

Rakesh - Another round of thanks to you.

The first article linked above is very informative - Claude Arpi continues his phenomenal work on India-Tibet-China issues; his books are the most informed and well researched that I've read till date.

The article above mentions the recently declassified CIA documents; well, I went searching and there is a treasure of information out there. Yes, it is historic but it helps to (a) fill blanks in one's understanding of certain subjects (b) can be used as template for present analysis.

These documents also show what a truly professional Class 1 analysis looks like. Hardly 1% of research papers that one sees from so called think-tanks (and mostly by ex-army/IN/IAF personnel) comes close.

Rant aside, I went looking for CIA assessment of 1987 Somdrung Chu incident. Here is the link to January 29, 1987 CIA assessment of ground situation. A lot of it is relevant to discussion happening on this forum. I urge people to read and learn. And see how professionals go about doing assessment and writing reports.

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom ... 0001-3.pdf

Shiv - you will surely love this.

[rohitvats]

Another short assessment of 1987 incident: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom ... 528065.pdf

Edit: Added one more short assessment from March 1987 (shows how US continuously tracks situations)

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom ... 0001-5.pdf