Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Feb 2017 07:35

^^ TSP has also started fake 2000 notes going by seizure on BD border.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Feb 2017 09:07

Dipanker wrote: I admit I have followed this thread only sporadically, so must have missed the the subtle logic behind replacing the Rs 500 note by Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 note by Rs 2,000 with the objective of re monetizing using a smaller denomination.

I think it was basically to pump as much money back into circulation as quickly as possible. The 500s came later. Personally, if I was PM I would have introduced a new Rs 750 note. But then again - you know why I am not in the running

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 23 Feb 2017 12:31

I can comfortably transact all my purchases with 100s and 50s. If I have to use anything greater than 300 I switch to card. Hope this 2000 note stops getting printed and taken back by the Govt. Restrict the 500 note circulation as much as possible.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Feb 2017 12:45

GOI and RBI are going in that direction already. Rs2000 lost all the confidence of the moneybags as many now believe that it will be taken out sooner or later. 500s will run for some more time till the digital transactions become a regular feature and slowly withdrawn without actually taking them out.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Feb 2017 01:07

I think the steady stream of negative news about the 2000 notes are a good thing. They reinforce in the eyes of black marketers that GoI simply does not intend to back the notes for a long time. They are supposedly thin and lack durability, the color supposedly runs, and more stuff that's mentioned in the news. All of this adds up to "the 2000s are going sooner than later". GoI doesn't say it in so many words - as the oft quoted saying here goes, samajdhaar ko ishaara kafi hain.

Melwyn · Post by **Melwyn** » 24 Feb 2017 02:03

TBH anyone thinking about keeping BM in cash must be smoking something extra strong. Modi has already indicated that this will not be the first attack on BM.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 24 Feb 2017 02:07

I see a lot of fake news campaign and assorted memes on social media on the 2K note. They are all trying to target demo credibility probably for election in mind.

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 24 Feb 2017 12:38

Accusing him of exchanging five original Rs 2,000 currency notes with the ‘Children’s Bank of India’ notes, Delhi Police has arrested a 27-year-old man who worked at an ATM cash loading company in connection with the fake notes that were dispensed by an SBI cash machine earlier this month.

The 27-year-old accused, Mohd Isha, had been employed with a logistics and cash management firm for over a year. He was the custodian of the cash deposited in the SBI ATM in Sangam Vihar on the day the bogus notes were dispensed.

Romil Baaniya, DCP (South-East), alleged that their investigation pointed towards Isha’s role in replacing the notes. “No one else had access to the notes that day. He removed five genuine notes and replaced them with the bogus notes which are easily available in the market and are used by children for playing purposes,” Baaniya said.

Sources said the vehicle carrying the vault containing the notes had been taken to Deoli area in south Delhi for replenishing an ATM there before heading to Sangam Vihar. “He must have made the exchange in Deoli. He was the only person who could have meddled with the currency notes,” said an investigator.

The police have not recovered the allegedly stolen notes by Isha, a resident of Sangam Vihar and a graduate from Pratapgarh in Uttar Pradesh. “We can’t say with certainty that the ₹2,000 notes currently in his possession are the ones stolen by him. Also, it has been a while since the crime happened, so he must have spent them,” explained the investigator.

Police said their probe revealed that the fake notes were available in many markets in Delhi for ₹40 for notes worth ₹2 lakh. “We need to ascertain from where he purchased the churan notes,” the officer said.

The notes, dispensed on February 6 from a SBI ATM installed in Tigri in Sangam Vihar, read ‘Children Bank of India’ in place of Reserve Bank of India and ‘Guaranteed by the Children’s Government’ in place of Guaranteed by the Central Government.

Read more

Children Bank of India currency notes? Cop doesn’t believe it, pays the price

Fake Rs 2,000 notes: Another ‘Children Bank of India’ victim steps forward
‘Churan lable’ in place of the latent image and a fake ‘PK’ logo instead of the bank’s seal, are among some of the other obvious deviations on the note. A policeman who visited the victim at the ATM used his own card to withdraw a ₹2,000 note, but he was dished out a similar note after which a case was registered and the ATM temporarily sealed.

The matter had come to light on February 6 when Rohit, a call centre employee, visited the SBI ATM to withdraw ₹8,000. When the notes were dispensed, Rohit noticed the deliberate mistakes on the notes like ‘promise to pay the bearer two thousand coupons’ and ’Serial number 000000’. With the bogus notes seized by police, Rohit was left with just a little over ₹400 in his bank account.

1. Bharatiya Manoranjan Bank instead of Bharatiya Reserve Bank
2. Serial number 000000
3. Rupee sign missing
4. Churan Lable instead of strip with leaf markings
5. P.K. logo instead of RBI seal
6. I promise to pay the barer two thousand coupens (sic) instead of I promise to pay the bearer the sum of two thousand rupees
7. Governor’s signature missing
8. Churan Lable instead of the Ashok emblem
9. Children Bank of India instead of Reserve Bank of India
10. Guaranteed by the Children Government instead of Gauranteed by the Central Government

http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/chi ... PjgyO.html

The perp is a ROPian. Cant these guys do atleast one right/productive thing in their life ? Good job by the cops in arresting this duffer.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 25 Feb 2017 00:07

So, ATMs cannot detect fake notes?

disha · Post by **disha** » 25 Feb 2017 05:25

SRoy wrote:So, ATMs cannot detect fake notes?

Not when the dispensers contain fake notes. Here the person breached the dispenser itself and replaced original notes with churan notes. The notes were not even fake., they were churan notes!

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 02 Mar 2017 09:12

HDFC, ICICI, Axis Bank slap charges on cash transactions

In a bid to promote cashless transactions, banks have started charging a specific transaction amount after a certain limit in the case of cash transactions. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank have already decided to implement the new charges. Other banks are expected to follow suit soon. According to HDFC Bank, people who hold savings accounts don’t have to pay any transaction amount up to 4 transactions from the home branch but with every additional transaction, the customer has to pay an amount of Rs 150.

People may withdraw or deposit up to Rs 2 lakh from their savings or salary accounts through the home branch for one month. Transaction exceeding this amount will be charged with Rs 5 per Rs 1000 or a minimum amount of Rs 150. Earlier this limit was up to Rs 50,000. In the case of non-home branches, daily transactions up to Rs 25,000 are non-chargeable, but above this a charge of Rs 5 per Rs 1000 or a minimum amount of Rs 150 is applicable. However, senior citizens and children will not be charged any amount.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 02 Mar 2017 10:18

Basically RBI and Govt are determined to push cashless transactions. These measures go a long way. My current work with Indian banks tells me they are investing a lot on systems development to push digital transactions. Bharat QR, a collaboration between all major card networks, is demonstration of this effort. There is also news about Bhim being the most popular app in the world on android. Hope we hit 50% digital transactions by end of 2017.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 02 Mar 2017 20:19

rahulm wrote:HDFC, ICICI, Axis Bank slap charges on cash transactions

Saw this yesterday, this is a bit confusing.

To a non-resident, does that mean that you get 4 free cash withdrawals/deposits a month after which you will be charged 150 per transaction? or 5 per thousand? So on my 5th transaction, I would be charged 15 for 3000rs?

Also, it seems to only apply to the banks named. What about the rest? If only these charge customers, then business will be moved to the state owned banks or other private banks.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 02 Mar 2017 21:07

JohnTitor wrote:To a non-resident, does that mean that you get 4 free cash withdrawals/deposits a month after which you will be charged 150 per transaction? or 5 per thousand? So on my 5th transaction, I would be charged 15 for 3000rs?

This is not some thing new. "New Generation" banks like CitiBank had such a scheme for ages. These fees are for doing transactions across a bank counter. The idea of these banks was to force people to use the ATMs (instead of queuing up at the banks). Nationalised banks did not have such a scheme. As for ATMs banks charges a very small amount when many withdrawals are done from ATMs which are not part of the bank holding the account. There is also another small charge for pulling out money from ATMs out side the metro city limits (at least in CitiBank).

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 03 Mar 2017 01:31

As usual nonsense rules, prodded by RBI.

How can you penalise people for taking out their own money? Belies all common sense.

Why work hard for result yourselves, when it takes a little effort to ask the man on the street to bend instead.

There is no penalty or accountability for govt. departments that still deal with cash.
No penalties for businesses that refuse to accept electronic payments.

Workaround?
Simple.
Queue in the banks in the first week and withdraw your salary or pension to the maximum extent in one go.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Mar 2017 02:14

works great for these banks because none of their atms work. nice, they must be thanking rbi since now they can make moolah.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Mar 2017 02:19

of course limited sample size and all, but post demo, effects are still lingering with shortage of change and overabundance of 2k notes. merchants are cynically hoarding all change and so i suspect are the fatcats.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 03 Mar 2017 05:48

http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/5-men-tryi ... topstories

Any guess on the peacefulness of the five that were caught? Hint not buddhist, not rasta,

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 03 Mar 2017 11:38

Rishi Verma wrote:http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/5-men-tryi ... topstories

Any guess on the peacefulness of the five that were caught? Hint not buddhist, not rasta,

Jains ????

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 03 Mar 2017 11:40

Karan M wrote:of course limited sample size and all, but post demo, effects are still lingering with shortage of change and overabundance of 2k notes. merchants are cynically hoarding all change and so i suspect are the fatcats.

Fearing that 2000 note will be subject to demonitisation in the future, Banks are helping the crooks to hoard money with 500 and 100s bills. As usual mango aadmi is helpless and left holding the 2k note in his hand, facing grave shortage of change.

ATMs as usual are busying disbursing 2k notes. Not seen a single ATM with 500s and 100s.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 03 Mar 2017 12:04

asgkhan wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/5-men-tryi ... topstories

Any guess on the peacefulness of the five that were caught? Hint not buddhist, not rasta,
Jains ????

Nah.

Pi$$fulls of pure variety.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 03 Mar 2017 12:12

asgkhan wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/5-men-tryi ... topstories

Any guess on the peacefulness of the five that were caught? Hint not buddhist, not rasta,
Jains ????

You funny

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Mar 2017 13:04

Fake currency racket: Forensic report points to Pakistan, Bangladesh over dummy currency circulation in India.

http://www.india.com/news/india/pakista ... t-1888504/

prasannasimha · Post by **prasannasimha** » 03 Mar 2017 15:09

^ So ? Isn't it always a run between counterfeiters and the banks. Even though you have a sense of vicrtory hasn't a large chunk of these been wiped out. T Kiran - let it go - we understand you lost a lot but then we have to live and move on.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Mar 2017 16:30

I lost only ₹500/- that too because my daughter put that in her piggy bank. So your assumption that I lost a lot is wrong. For me, I sold my well running business in 2015 for too much of profit and full of white money in cash in bank. I can live off the rest of my life with even simple interest of the money deposit, maintaining my present living standards. My other chota mota businesses are all running smoothly on cash as well as on digital payments.

Sorry to disappoint you.

I am only searching for a good apartment, the real estate is not going down, I am still waiting unable to decide, if at all I should really buy one more house in this new place or to be happy with the rental house. New business opportunities are coming up in aerospace engineering., Still in dilemma whether I should leave my automotive experience or not. Life has become very lethargic now a days, as everything going right for me. I miss those days when I used to get tensed up whether I would make money or lose everything. Those days were very exciting and challenging. Now all safety and low returns only.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 03 Mar 2017 20:05

Has anybody actually seen a fake 2000 note? all the reports of fake notes caught do not describe the quality of the fake.

such reports are used by usual suspects to beat on the 'demo destroyed FICN' idea. even here, we are having ideas that poor credibility/doubts about 2000 will dampen hoarding. I am not sure if this perceived benefit is more than the damage from loss of credibility.

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Mar 2017 20:15

discretionary spending by Indian middle class & lower middle has taken a huge hit after demo and esp in the India outside bangalore & delhi. The two growth hubs. Most shops in small towns and B-grade cities selling furniture, steel furniture, utensils, cupboards, crockery, kitchen & bath fittings, pillows/mattresses/bedwear furnishings are still empty throughout the working day waiting for customers while shopkeepers look longingly outisde. The only shops that have crowds are ladies garments, churidar, genuine fresh seafood, restaurants. Basically necessary spending.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 03 Mar 2017 21:10

^^Nice dramatisation. Did you try your hand at writing scripts?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Mar 2017 21:11

Demonitisation: Auto, tractor sectors suffer Rs 8,000 crore revenue loss

http://www.newindianexpress.com/busines ... 76711.html

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 03 Mar 2017 21:32

^^

While the overall impact on demonetisation "was very deep in November and December", he said it has started improving in January and "I think by now we are almost done and I believe that by end of March we will be through".

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Mar 2017 23:05

habal wrote:discretionary spending by Indian middle class & lower middle has taken a huge hit after demo and esp in the India outside bangalore & delhi. The two growth hubs. Most shops in small towns and B-grade cities selling furniture, steel furniture, utensils, cupboards, crockery, kitchen & bath fittings, pillows/mattresses/bedwear furnishings are still empty throughout the working day waiting for customers while shopkeepers look longingly outisde. The only shops that have crowds are ladies garments, churidar, genuine fresh seafood, restaurants. Basically necessary spending.

This could well be true.

Assuming it is true, it means that people are unable to spend on things that they would otherwise have spent money on using cash. A Marie Antoinette question I could ask is "Why don't they use cards or BHIM? It is a valid question - it's not as though money has been stolen from them. As long as the money was white it is still theirs and still there.

One answer might be that a lot many more people than we suspect had little stashes of unaccounted for and untaxed cash that they used for such things. The unkind question is - why don't they spend it now - they still have it? In the bank.

Another explanation crops up in my mind. People may not be making money in cash like they used to. Now why would that happen? The amount of cash in the system is near normal. Some spending should start. Or is it a particular mode of making money that has been disrupted?

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 03 Mar 2017 23:53

habal wrote: Most shops in small towns and B-grade cities selling furniture, steel furniture, utensils, cupboards, crockery, kitchen & bath fittings, pillows/mattresses/bedwear furnishings are still empty throughout the working day waiting for customers while shopkeepers look longingly outisde.

From your earlier posts, I think you are working/staying in the socialist republic of Kerala. Most of the business remotely connected to real estate (new houses, new flats etc.) have taken a hit. And this was one sector in Kerala heavily depended on black money and hawala transactions. But if this is from few B-grade cities outside Kerala, TN, AP, TS then it would be worth checking.

disha · Post by **disha** » 04 Mar 2017 00:18

asgkhan wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/5-men-tryi ... topstories

Any guess on the peacefulness of the five that were caught? Hint not buddhist, not rasta,
Jains ????

Parsis????

prasannasimha · Post by **prasannasimha** » 04 Mar 2017 00:31

it is back to business all over Karnataka - be it cities or villages.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Mar 2017 01:33

Austin wrote:Demonitisation: Auto, tractor sectors suffer Rs 8,000 crore revenue loss

http://www.newindianexpress.com/busines ... 76711.html

IMO, a gross exaggeration.

"We have worked out by using some kind of formula that tractor and auto industry lost Rs 8,000 crore revenue in November and December," Goenka told PTI in an interaction.

He explained that the way calculation was done was "what would have happened versus what has happened" based on growth rate up to October and "if that growth rate had continued in November and December".

Historical data does not support the assumption that this growth continues in the months after Diwali, as far as I know.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 04 Mar 2017 03:13

>>"We have worked out by using some kind of formula

wow

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Mar 2017 07:16

Why do you people laugh when Pakis say we lost $8 billion because we would have earned so much if our left hand was not so soosaidal?

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 04 Mar 2017 07:24

shiv wrote:Why do you people laugh when Pakis say we lost $8 billion because we would have earned so much if our left hand was not so soosaidal?

Because people laugh when pakis say anything.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 06 Mar 2017 08:52

Not directly related to DeMo but black money and tax evasion.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... s-4556217/

The court filings of the tax department in the case of Ruia also detail the modus operandi of the entities to convert black money into white. It said that a Kolkata-based brokerage firm, Intellect Stock Broking Pvt Ltd, allegedly helped Ruia buy 41.71 lakh shares of Unno Industries in 2011 at Rs 1.79 a piece through preferential allotment.
The court filings state that in the next two years, the owners of the brokerage, through Kolkata-based shell companies Nimbus Vincom Pvt Ltd, Viewlink Dealer Pvt Ltd, Vedant Commodeal Pvt Ltd and Touchwin Dealcomm Pvt Ltd, rigged the share prices of Unno Industries through circular trading (buyers and sellers are connected) in its shares. As a result, the shares of Unno Industries in 2013 touched about Rs 38 a piece with Ruia’s stake valued at about Rs 17 crore. Ruia then funded the same shell companies, allegedly bringing in the black money into these shell firms, which subsequently bought Ruia’s stake in Unno Industries, the court filings state.
The I-T has alleged that Ruia later claimed tax exemption on the profit of Rs 17 crore he made through trading in the penny stock. The brokerage and the shell firms also received a commission of 4 to 6 per cent from Ruia, the department said.

The case against Ruia comes at a time when the government is working on measures to curb the menace of domestic shell companies which are used to convert black money into white.
Investigation agencies have identified close to 30.000 shell companies in Kolkata alone. Most of these shell companies, according to the I-T department, share the same office address and employ dummy directors — typically “people of no means” to act as fronts for the main operators.
For instance, in the case of Ruia, at least three shell firms, Viewlink Dealer, Vedant Commodeal and Touchwin Dealcomm, have listed a common address as their registered office address, according to the Registrar of Company (RoC) website.
In July 2015, the Special Investigation Team (SIT) on black money recommended proactive mining of RoC database by government’s fraud office to weed out shell companies. This, after the SIT found shell companies had been used to provide accommodation entries to launder black money in a number of high-profile cases investigated in the recent past.

The SIT pointed out that there were 2,627 individuals holding directorships in more than 20 companies in violation of Section 165 of the Companies Act, 2013. There were also 345 addresses that were being used by at least 20 firms each. Data compiled by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs showed that the total number of such companies was 13,581.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 06 Mar 2017 12:08

habal wrote:discretionary spending by Indian middle class & lower middle has taken a huge hit after demo and esp in the India outside bangalore & delhi. The two growth hubs. Most shops in small towns and B-grade cities selling furniture, steel furniture, utensils, cupboards, crockery, kitchen & bath fittings, pillows/mattresses/bedwear furnishings are still empty throughout the working day waiting for customers while shopkeepers look longingly outisde. The only shops that have crowds are ladies garments, churidar, genuine fresh seafood, restaurants. Basically necessary spending.

GDP data for Oct-Dec shows that consumer and government spending remained strong, and in fact PFCE and GFCE were the two primary drivers of growth last quarter. See Feb 28 GDP data, Statement 12 (page 14).