Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

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Singha
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

the sultan has legions of stormtroopers who can mobilize in hours, called forth by mosque loudspeakers as they did in the coup night.

his spectrum ranges from urban troops like these, to rural grey wolves, to FSA bandits, to elite turkoman militias equipped at good std.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Lalmohan »

JEM - good analysis and summary of the Dutch-Turkish stand-off
something else to factor in...
Erdogan's recent rapprochement with Putin
and the key question... who benefits the most if Wilder's actually wins? (or comes close?)

Note - Wilders will likely call for an EU exit referendum
(connect the dots with Fillon's problems in France right now)
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by JE Menon »

1. Erdogan's recent rapprochment with Putin is just that, Erdogan's rapprochment with Putin. It is not equivalent to Putin's rapprochement with Erdogan, if you catch my meaning...

2. Wilder is likely to improve his position, but not win. Even if he does, he will absolutely need to form a coalition. There are 24 parties in the race. The Dutch system virtually mandates a coalition every time. Within the political spectrum that is representing the Dutch populace, Wilders has limited support outside his own party...not enough, in my reading and of those whom I've been speaking to in Holland, to form the government.

3. But Wilders is a force to be reckoned with. He is not going anywhere, and he will one day form the government in Holland. The only way that he will be ruled out of the political sphere is if the entire geo-political atmosphere in the area from Turkey to Scandinavia changes, with emphasis on the immigration situation, the "Islam" situation (pertaining to local demands for more special treatment), the "Islamism" situation (pertaining to terrorism) and the "radical Islam" situation (pertaining to the cross-border preaching of salafi/wahhabi strain). This is not likely to happen. And Wilders, like Trump and others who speak to the common man with what seems like common sense, are riding this wave. Because there is more truth in what they say than in what those who deny it say, they are winning. Trump has. Eventually, if not now, some time in the future, Wilders will. If he stays the course.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

Erdogan`s rapproachment with Putin is not something big and has cooled off sooner than expected.
Erdogan thinks he is the only smartass in town. He has been trying to play the West against Russia while pursuing his own policies. In Manbij, Russia and USA have gotten together to put an end to Erdogan`s drive against the kurds.
The only big card that Erdogan has against the west is the hordes of islamic refugees that he can easily unleash on Europe. And that is where Europe gets defensive. Had it been any other country but Turkey, there would have been sanctions and what not for the numerous human rights violations against the kurds and death to democracy.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Lalmohan »

Bhurishravas wrote:Erdogan`s rapproachment with Putin is not something big and has cooled off sooner than expected.
on the contrary, i think erdo has gubo'ed to the czar and is now doing as he is told
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

He is no less than musharaff and zia in playing all sides and maxing roi on limited cards

Tsp turkey and saudi elites are masters at this game
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by ramana »

Lalmohan wrote:
Bhurishravas wrote:Erdogan`s rapproachment with Putin is not something big and has cooled off sooner than expected.
on the contrary, i think erdo has gubo'ed to the czar and is now doing as he is told
Sahi pakde aap!!!
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Prem »

The limits to Ankara’s reliance on Moscow
Turkey’s deepening crisis with Europe has re-energized its desire to expand ties with Russia. Ankara clearly wants to show that it has powerful friends that can reduce its dependence on the United States and Europe. This also works to Moscow’s advantage, given its problems with the West and barely concealed desire to undermine NATO. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Moscow visit last week enabled Ankara to show Europe it has alternatives, but thorns continue to exist in the side of Turkish-Russian ties. Following their talks, Erdogan and Putin stressed their joint desire to attain and surpass the levels of economic cooperation that existed between the two countries before the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey in November 2015 that sent economic and political ties plummeting overnight.The documents signed during Erdogan’s visit covered a three-year economic, scientific, technical and cultural cooperation program. There was also talk about increasing cooperation in the strategic field of energy, including speeding up the nuclear power plant project in Akkuyu, Turkey, contracted to the Russian company Rosatom.
In addition to this, increased cooperation in the military field was discussed, leading to rumors about the purchase of Russian S-400 long-range missile defense systems by Turkey. Given Turkey’s continuing NATO membership, though, many believe this is not possible.This, however, did not deter Erdogan from fueling the speculation. Flying back from Moscow, he told reporters that Turkey had not lost its independence because of NATO membership, and he stressed that if it could not secure these systems from the West, it had to seek them elsewhere.Erdogan’s words inadvertently underlined, however, differences between Turkey and Russia over Syria. Al-Monitor’s Maxim A. Suchkov has pointed out that “if delivered, S-400 systems could potentially limit Moscow’s own maneuvers in Syria and those of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's air forces — something Russia should and does take into consideration for the long run.”
Erdogan’s remark about NATO weapons going to terrorists in Syria, on the other hand, refers to the backing the US-led coalition against the Islamic State (IS) is providing for the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey insists is a Kurdish terrorist group linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).Erdogan has a serious dilemma. Russia does not accept the YPG or its mother organization, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), to be terrorist organizations either, and allows a PYD representation in Moscow.Russia’s refusal, unlike the United States and much of Europe, to declare the PKK a terrorist organization compounds the dilemma. Erdogan brought up the matter diplomatically during the opening session of the High-Level Cooperation Council in Moscow.He also brought up another highly touchy topic and mentioned Ankara’s desire to see Russia restrict the activities of groups associated with Fethullah Gulen, the Islamic preacher accused of masterminding the failed coup attempt in Turkey in July 2016.
This was also made apparent when Russia stopped the advance of Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield in northern Syria, especially toward the town of Manbij (Ankara wanted to dislodge the YPG elements there).Using its influence with the PYD, Moscow convinced the YPG to transfer territory south of the town to regime forces. Murat Yetkin, the editor-in-chief of Hurriyet Daily News, says Moscow made this move “in order not to let the Kurdish card in Syria fall into American hands.”The Russian move also highlighted how Turkey is only able to forge on in Syria according to Moscow’s — not to mention Washington’s — desires, and in doing so is forced to come to terms with the unsavory possibility of cooperating with Assad.Having vilified Assad for years, Erdogan supporters are coming around to accepting now that Assad may be the lesser of two evils when compared with the PYD and the YPG. Ibrahim Karagul, the editor-in-chief of the pro-government daily Yeni Safak, for example, argues that regime control is preferable to PYD control in Syria. “Maybe some will be angry with me for saying so, but if necessary we have to sit at the table with Damascus,” Karagul wrote in his column.Moscow’s playing host to a Kurdish conference last month — which was also attended by the PYD — and Russia’s draft constitution for Syria, which proposes a secular system and includes the possibility of Kurdish autonomy, have also been met with displeasure in Ankara.Aware that both Russia and the United States are keen to have some form of political representation for the Kurds, Ankara is bracing itself for the new round of Syria negotiations in Geneva on March 23. One of the main topics discussed there will reportedly be the new Syrian Constitution.For the moment, Ankara and Moscow are not prepared to let differences, no matter how serious these may ultimately be, cloud the positive atmosphere they are projecting regarding their ties. This does not mean that the thorns in the side of their relationship will not result in new bruises that go on to fester.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Lalmohan »

looks like the dutch have managed to withstand the pressure...
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

Lalmohan wrote:
Bhurishravas wrote:Erdogan`s rapproachment with Putin is not something big and has cooled off sooner than expected.
on the contrary, i think erdo has gubo'ed to the czar and is now doing as he is told
Not cooperating in the Kazakhstan peace process for Syria. Has been building up ties with Ukbapzi Ukraine. Accusing Russia of human rights violations in Aleppo after the rapproachment.
List is long. Erdogan is a slippery customer.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by JE Menon »

Turkey Scuffles with the Netherlands, Why & For Whose Benefit

https://swarajyamag.com/world/turkey-sc ... se-benefit
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 32571.html
Dutch elections: Turkish minister claims 'holy wars will soon begin in Europe' after Geert Wilders beaten.
Minister claims there is no difference between liberal politicians and 'fascist' far-right leader
http://www.dw.com/en/turkey-threatens-t ... a-37957097
Turkey threatens to unilaterally suspend EU refugee deal.
Days before the first anniversary of the deal, Turkey's top diplomat has vowed to "cancel" it if the EU fails to deliver on its part of the agreement. Relations with Germany and The Netherlands have taken a dive.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Karthik S »

Image
Zvi Lando‏ @zlando 13h13 hours ago
Can you believe this? Turkish Flags Flying Inside Sultan Camii Mosque Polling Station In Amsterdam
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Lalmohan »

turkey is switching from NATO/CENTO to Russo-Turkic alignment
they got nothing from the west, didn't get EU, zilch
it makes sense for them to realign
the flare up at the moment required some encouragement from across the caucasus...
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Atmavik »

Russia and Turkey have competing interests this alignment will be temporary.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bheeshma »

Its like Russia-china alignment. Events have forced their hand to work together for now.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

Lalmohan wrote:turkey is switching from NATO/CENTO to Russo-Turkic alignment
they got nothing from the west, didn't get EU, zilch
it makes sense for them to realign
the flare up at the moment required some encouragement from across the caucasus...
Not at all.
They dont see eye to eye on Armenia and Azerbaijan (Nagorno Karabakh). Neither the tatar issue in Crimea.
They dont agree on Syria. Russia refuses to call either PKK or YPG a terrorist entity.
Russia has ties with all orthodox christian states including Greece. Greece has poor relations with Turkey including problems in Cyprus. On almost every issue under the sun they dont agree.

Most importantly, the day Tukey aligns with Russia, it will be cut off from the western economic market. Turdogan knows this. The Russia drama is being used by Turdogan to blackmail the west. And its working to some extent. Particularly with fellows like McCain -"lets hate Russia no matter what".
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Lalmohan »

yes fair point, maybe they think they are bigger than their boots
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Austin »

‘You are the future of Europe’: Erdogan urges Turks in EU to have at least 5 kids

https://www.rt.com/news/381166-erdogan- ... -children/
Turkish President Recep Erdogan has urged all Turks living in Europe to have at least five children, saying they are the future of the continent and that it would be the best response to the “injustices” imposed on expatriates there.

“Go live in better neighborhoods. Drive the best cars. Live in the best houses. Make not three, but five children. Because you are the future of Europe. That will be the best response to the injustices against you,” Erdogan said in the city of Eskisehir on Friday, according to AP.

The comments were made while the Turkish president was campaigning for a ‘yes’ vote in an upcoming constitutional referendum that would grant him sweeping new powers.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by brihaspati »

I was looking for my old posts on India-Turkey in 2009-10 for a small group presentation, and thought of looking for current wisdom on BRF on the theme. I am quite shocked to see such a negative and dim view of Turkey, Erdogan and AKP - for the last time I remember debating on this, we were very very positive on the explosive-growth Turkish economy, how its strong secular elite will essentially trump any Islamist tendency, how Islamism or fundamentalism had no chance in Turkey, and how engaging Turkey - especially economically and trade wise, since economy and trade trumps all politics and ideology, would be so beneficial for India.

It was even suggested by some that India can leverage Turkey ignoring its consistent siding with Pak on J&K etc., since such things were just apparently posturing in OIC which in itself as an organization did not carry any value, or in other words - Turkey's backing of generic Sunni Islamist interests (and Pak) transnationally really did not or should affect and worry India.

Moreover Turkey was unique among all ME countries, and its Islamism/fundamentalism all had so deeply been trounced by Kemal, that Islamism would never really converge to Islamisms of other ME countries.

What happened in the intervening 7 years to change this positive view? Don't we have faith in our potential "Islamic" allies?
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bheeshma »

Turkey was always islamist under the hood. The vast majority of rural turks are AKP supporters and islamists. There army is pro paki and India always treats them as enemies. India even vetoed the Barak-II sale for the mofos.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Lalmohan »

brihaspati - turkey has changed in that time. it has dropped its desire to be western aligned after being repeatedly snubbed by the EU core and it is feeling the winds from the north and the south. the sultan has decided to carve out his own destiny with another horde
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

Dunno how Turkey was earlier and how fellas debated earlier, but Turkey has always been a torn state. Thank You Prof Huntington.
In the last decade, it has taken a decisive turn towards islamism. From more islam in schools to, construction boom of mosques to, headscarves, there isnt a segment of life in Turkey that has not been islamised.
Considering that AKP party has widespread popularity and has been winning actions fairly, one can only come to the conclusion that -
how its strong secular elite will essentially trump any Islamist tendency,
and
its Islamism/fundamentalism all had so deeply been trounced by Kemal
were completely wrong deductions.
The failure of the coup last year also means that the final guardian of Turkey`s secularism has been decimated and Ankara is clearly and unequivocally on the Pakistan path now.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

Cross posted
http://www.voanews.com/a/russia-turkey- ... 77443.html
Russia Deals Major Blow to Turkey's Syria Policy
Moscow took Ankara by surprise when it deployed forces in the canton to monitor a cease-fire between YPG and the Free Syrian Army, which is backed by Turkey. On Wednesday violence erupted again. Ankara said one of its soldiers was killed by a sniper shooting across the border, prompting Turkish artillery to retaliate.
“Practically it means the end of Operation Euphrates Shield,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who served across the region. "The military operation cannot move down south towards Raqqa, because there is the Syrian Arab Army or Assad together with the Russians. It cannot turn east towards Manbij as it’s suggested by the Turkish government. Why? Because there is [the] Syrian Army backed by … Russia and also you have the U.S. special forces there along [with] U.S. Army Rangers. Militarily it means the end of the operation."
US and Russia are fed up of smartpants Erdogan. Now Operation Euphrates Fart has nowhere to go.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... a-46320645
Turkey summons Russian chargé d’affairs over PYD attack on Turkey

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey ... sCatID=510
Turkey warns Russia following sniper fire from Syria
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

https://www.rt.com/business/381967-russ ... n-tkachev/
Russia blasts Turkey over draconian agriculture tariffs.
Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachev has criticized Ankara for imposing a 130 percent tariff on Russian wheat and corn. The measure could halt Russian agricultural exports to Turkey.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by brihaspati »

Bhurishravas wrote:Dunno how Turkey was earlier and how fellas debated earlier, but Turkey has always been a torn state.
At that time, I was kind of the lone voice predicting this was how Turkey would go. Strong "economy/trade trumps everything" voices were opposed to this projection and all the other deductions you identify as "wrong" were loudly endorsed by the other side in that debate.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by brihaspati »

Lalmohan wrote:brihaspati - turkey has changed in that time. it has dropped its desire to be western aligned after being repeatedly snubbed by the EU core and it is feeling the winds from the north and the south. the sultan has decided to carve out his own destiny with another horde
How could such high-growth economies, that had stood on Kemalite cleansing of Turkish society where the mullah was weak and secularism ultimately had won, whose culture was most liberal, people so friendly, (Kemal was just after WWI - so that makes for a solid 90 odd years for deep rooted secularism and weakened mullah) - be so turned around merely because it continued to face EU rebuff for the last 7 years after facing same rebuff for the previous 30 years? Doesnt economy/trade interests/growth trump over all ideology - especially mullahcracy?
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Lalmohan »

i am no expert on turkey (or anything else for that matter) but i think that there was always a division between the euro-facing turks and the anatolian hinterlanders who were more conservative. in the past few years the euro-facing turks have started to give up on their euro-dreams...
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Agnimitra »

^^^ In addition to what Lal broff said, Turkey also experienced unprecedented economic windfall in recent years by becoming involved in the Middle East situation as an Islamist stakeholder.

So in addition to the fact that the Anatolian heartland always remained warm for Islam, the economic/trade interests/growth angle also plays a part here.

[In "end of times prophecy" literature commonly circulated among Turkish Islamists, some stories about how some work on the Tigris/Euphrates rivers (a dam? or something else?) will yield "gold" is narrated... "Ghanimat" is always a sign from Allah, in the Islamic video game...]
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

It could be a generation change. The fellows who had benefitted from Kemalist secularism and stable economy and politik were more inclined to support him and his secular policies.
The new generation is disconnected from the pre Kemal sufferings and accepts the current good state of affairs as Allah`s gift. Therefore they are more islamist.
Education does not necessarily mean secularism or liberalism. In Islamic countries it may even be quite the opposite.
In fact I dont believe EU denying Turkey admission into Europe has anything to do with rise of islamism in Turkey. Nothing at all.
It is wholly an internal societal change.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by brihaspati »

Actually, Occam's razor makes it very simple - allow majority Muslim society to continue to be majority Muslim with mullah infrastructure intact, it will eventually always turn jihadi. Every other excuse, education or lack of education, development or lack of development, growth in prosperity or impoverishment, is redundant as explanations since jihadization goes on because apparently there has been education as well as because there has not been education, or because there has been development as well as when there has been no development, in poverty or prosperity.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

indeed from prosperous EU hamlets to the windblown sands of mali and mauritania to the steamy swamps of bangladesh...the hounds are tirelessly on the march.

other than christianity, it is the second virtual construct able to mobilize people across the world of diverse backgrounds to fight for one cause. the syrians jihad hosts fighters from 50 nations surely. people who have given up family and country for a greater cause.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

>> allow majority Muslim society to continue to be majority Muslim with mullah infrastructure intact, it will eventually always turn jihadi.

already seen in some tracts of assam.

also read this

https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/indias ... tas-bengal

India’s Own Baghdadi: How This Maulana Has Carved Out A Mini Islamic State In Mamata’s Bengal
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

GCC will provide the financing and China the military tech to keep turkey #strong even if EU economic ties wither.

one can call it the pakistan model.

russia is willing to sell arms to whoever wants it (currently trying for a T90 deal with saudis , while bombing saudi backed jihadis night and day...) ... US is providing F-16IQ to iraq, while bombing some of the side effects of "iraqi freedom" night and day .

war profiteering is a ancient creed that unites men of all systems . UK is happy to support saudis to bomb yemen to new stone age.

china wants permanent bases and is willing to provide both military tech and investment in the cash strapped parts of the islamic world like iran, iraq, syria, egypt to get a foothold and start bribing the elites
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

Singha wrote:GCC will provide the financing and China the military tech to keep turkey #strong even if EU economic ties wither.

one can call it the pakistan model.

russia is willing to sell arms to whoever wants it (currently trying for a T90 deal with saudis , while bombing saudi backed jihadis night and day...) ... US is providing F-16IQ to iraq, while bombing some of the side effects of "iraqi freedom" night and day .

war profiteering is a ancient creed that unites men of all systems . UK is happy to support saudis to bomb yemen to new stone age.

china wants permanent bases and is willing to provide both military tech and investment in the cash strapped parts of the islamic world like iran, iraq, syria, egypt to get a foothold and start bribing the elites
Economic ties is more than just financing. Besides China has no military tech.
Turkey is integrated into EU and American economy.
Its not Chinese and GCC tourists who give billions in tourism. Turkish textiles go to Europe and US. They cant go to GCC or China. Etc.
Financing other states comes with different pull and pushes too.
Paistan model isnt great for any country. That is one step away from Somalia model.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Bhurishravas »

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... rison.html
Erdogan has effectively decimated political representation of Kurds by either jailing everyone or sending them in exile. This probably means that Kurdish aspirations would go underground with a swell in support for PKK.
If Russia/US were to start supporting YPG, Turkey could be in for a very long and painful fight for survival.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

China is a huge exporter of arms and looking to increase toehold as countries like turkey fall out of favour. From jf17 to artillery tanks radars subs uav they have a good portfolio if you dont expect usa level quality

Chinese tourists are also a huge force worldwide even to usa. This is from reports and 1st hand exp too...they are to be found from maldives to monterey bay in droves. Turkey a major stop on silk route and with so much history is naturally a good place to visit. Turkish airline is a giant and flies everywhere. even one of the remoter islands like mauritius has direct flights from a few chinese cities for tourists.

I dont see the sultan in any great bother except few setbacks in Syria. The main movie there is idlib. Aleppo nd albab were trailers. like bahubali2 , Idlib is much awaited - its going to be a cagefight, a fight to the finish.

hope russia is shipping in tons and tons of the right stuff - ammo, tos, tochkas, uragans, arty, tanks, dozers, kornets....the kitchen sink will be needed and maybe couple more squadrons of the su34 with KAB1500 level weapons. maybe keep some 12 backfires in damascus too to fly with full 50 bomb payload.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Karthik S »

China strategically (not economic) will have relationship with other country majorly to check it's enemies, is it trying to prop up turkey as another NoKo against USA or as TSP against India, although later seems unlikely.
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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

more the degree of economic ties more than leverage with the elites. its the elites in turkey who will profit most from engaging china...beijing usually makes sure to co-opt the elites...the rest will follow. i have personally seen them roaming in hordes all over napa valley and monterrey bay in california. and business hotels and extended stay places are full of their lads and lasses young and old "learning" (ie soaking up for TOT) and buying lots of stuff in spare time (a bunch of them used to throw the shopping bags in a huge bin near my room so I got a good glimpse into their buying habits - they are big on western branded stuff)

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Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Post by Singha »

reason is their GDP per capita has more than doubled since 2006. that seems to be the inflection point where it took off vertically and maybe rules got changed to allow more forex buying etc

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