Levant crisis - III

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Jun 2017 17:30

Austin wrote:Putin: Russia protecting Syria from dismemberment rather than shielding Assad

does this mean Ru is opening up to the possibility of Sy minus Assad, a new leader which is agreeable to West & Ru alike.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jun 2017 18:27

With the extent anti russia moves by usa in last 5 years any chances of just things are remote

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jun 2017 18:30

After landfall on syria border..a second pmu line is creeping west south of al baaj...aiming to isolate it and perhaps reach border again in a huge 200km long pincer

https://twitter.com/A7_Mirza/status/871074451626090496

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jun 2017 18:31

The desert is deceptive. Seems like dozens of villages all over the place. These are ppl adapted to desert life over millenia

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Jun 2017 19:41

IndraD wrote:
Austin wrote:Putin: Russia protecting Syria from dismemberment rather than shielding Assad
does this mean Ru is opening up to the possibility of Sy minus Assad, a new leader which is agreeable to West & Ru alike.

I would bet every dime I have and say that Russia/Iran & Allies will have a Plan B on ground from Day 1 if Assad decides to step down or is mortally wounded and unable to perform his duty as Syrian President.

Assad is atm the convenient guy on ground to keep strategic objective keep going what ever they might be for Shia/Allawite state.

Even if Assad goes today the Rus/Iraq and company will continue with their objectives.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jun 2017 20:10

Isnt his brother maher al assad the head of repub guard and counter intel and the power behind throne?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jun 2017 20:11

Maher al-Assad (Arabic: ماهر الأسد‎‎, born 8 December 1967) is a Syrian general and commander of the Republican Guard and the army's elite Fourth Armored Division, which together with Syria's secret police form the core of the country's security forces.[2][3] He is also a member of the Central Committee of the Ba'ath Party's Syrian Regional Branch.[4] He is thought by some to be the second most powerful man in Syria after his brother Bashar, the current President

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jun 2017 20:11

I am sure there are 6 more ruthless warlords who are willing to do whatever needs to get done. Unlike india, arab states have no shortage of such leaders

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Jun 2017 20:19

Singha wrote:Isnt his brother maher al assad the head of repub guard and counter intel and the power behind throne?

My bet would be his wife is more of the soft face for Syrian Regime and if she survives then she might be an acceptable leader but I wont rule out what you say

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jun 2017 22:18

Al baaj has fallen without serious fighting. Isis cut and ran. Fall is confirmed by pmu head al mohandes. Pmu has gained a huge area this past week

https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/statu ... 3500294145

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Jun 2017 01:03

God give us strength.>!
Sunnis in Mosul turned into IS champs and helped them rape, loot and plunder Yezidi neighbours..
(also read stories of how Sunnis turned on people around them in Iraq after becoming IS commanders, apparent in so many you tube videos)
https://twitter.com/Thawra_city/status/ ... 3146267649

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 05:45

Shades of kashmiri mussalmans....turned on pandits

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 07:37

situation is again very dire in dez as isis launches desperate attacks like cornered rat

Leith Abou Fadel‏Verified account @leithfadel 5h5 hours ago

SAA's Al-Qassem Group is advancing at the provincial cemetery now, but the big issue is the Daesh attack on the Panorama area.

I was told situation is not good at the moment. Daesh launched another big attack tonight that fractured the SAA's defenses.

Daesh has broken through SAA front-lines in Deir Ezzor. If Tal SyriaTel & Tal Umm Abboud fall tonight, Daesh will take Deir's southern gate

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 07:44

DEZ is defended by 3000 soldiers which includes a mix of repub guard, NDF and assyrian christian and local arab tribal militias.
there are 150k civilians in the town.
they have no air force functional as the airport is in mortar or ATGM range. air support flies in from western syria.
they have no received any heavy weapons like technicals, tanks or shilkas since atleast 2014 and lose a few now and then without replacement
resupply of food by air
resupply of men and evac of wounded by fleets of Mi17 helis that fly low into town from hasakeh
the town is separated from airport by daesh taking the cemetary, so helis do a short hop to airport to resupply men and ammo

if it holds out until relieved and even if it does not, will go down in history as one of most valiant defences.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 07:52

fighting in the deserts east of palmyra near arak

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 12:18

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/saudi-ar ... eststories

what is the play here ? - saudis egypt bahrain uae have cut diplomatic ties to qatar which is a major US munna and hosts the gigantic al udeid airbase.

https://www.google.co.in/maps/@25.11974 ... a=!3m1!1e3

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 12:29

looks like growing ties with iran led to the sunni kabila ganging up on qatar - which is really small country . they are rich in gas resource.
even egypt sided with ksa on this caper.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/06 ... qatar.html

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Jun 2017 13:02

Singha saar ...from what I understand...
Qatar was punching above weight ...Saudi wants to be the sole Sunni champion, this competition in Wahabism was too much for saudi to swallow.
Then Qatar launched Al Jazeera...which aired some musical show and documentaries questioned Saudi royals once in a while...for some one who blackmails UK & takes pride in US being a lap dpg who ever is POTUS..this was too much of humiliation.
Further recently when Trump visited Saudi, royals raised this grouse against Qatar..what infuriated Trump was Qatar backing Iran hence antagonising Israel.
Further...Qatar is firm supporter of Islamic Brotherhood & Hamas, their key leaders still in Qatar. IB since 2012 has enjoyed hospitality of Qatari royals..Egypt is battling with both IS & IB at the moment and getting torn to pieces..they hold Qatar responsible for their misrey to some extent .
I expect this Noora Kushti to end quickly so that West-Sunni axis doesn;t get dented and it is business as usual..

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 14:09

pmu al badr militia defend a berm against isis vehicle borne attack. 2 kornets score hits.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 14:11

saa + sdf + pmu + iraqi army + airstrikes combined must be killing some 100 isis a day. 600 a week, with fri off. 2400 a month.

isis cannot sustain these losses, with no incoming recruits more than 6 months...EVEN if a ton of $$ and weapons were available...khalifa cubs press ganged will not solve the problem.

key is staying at the crease like dravid and vvs and staying consistent and patient...score the runs steadily and beat them dead.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 19:24

heron sized uav in hymenim
https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/8 ... 7768123399

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 05 Jun 2017 20:17

So what is Qatar's role in Syria???

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Jun 2017 00:06

There is too much hatred for Saudi Arabia as wahaabi terrorism supporters on BR. As Paki allies, they deserve it too.
But of late, the house of Saud has realised that the monarchy will have no future in a radicalised muslim society. That is why they oppose ISIS, Muslim brotherhood etc. But we do not like to hear this and are comfortable in lumping all GCC together.

Qatar has taken up the islamist cause with zeal. This has been the reason behind its fallout with both Egypt as well as Saudi Arabia.
The Syria war has helped all islamists to come together. Turkey under Erdogan and Qatar have now built a strategic partnership. So deep is this relationship that Turkey now has a military base in Qatar.
Although this war has gone long, Qatar was flying arms to Turkey to be later distributed to the jihadists in Syria, if my memory serves right.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 06 Jun 2017 01:27

W.r.t Qatar drama , I don't think it is who is more green contest...I seriously doubt the actual reason for the the fall out has anything to do with ISIS or terrorism ..Either some Qatari pissed of some yank or something like that...

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Jun 2017 08:13

Come on, fess up Comrade Vlad. This has all the imprints of a Russian hack> nicely drove a wedge up the musharrafs of these birathers.

Arab League nations v Qatar: How it all started
Published time: 5 Jun, 2017 12:08
Edited time: 5 Jun, 2017 15:49
Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Yemen have cut diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism. Riyadh also accused Qatar of supporting Iranian-backed militants.
Alleged major hack
The decision to cut ties with Doha comes just weeks after comments published by the website of Qatar's state-run QNA news agency – allegedly from Qatar's ruling Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani – featured negative remarks about Saudi Arabia.
Qatar's Gulf Arab neighbors responded with anger, blocking Qatari media. The Doha-based Al Jazeera was among the media outlets which were banned.

Qatar, however, claims that hackers took over the media outlet's website and published the comments, which it says were fake.

However, the recent media rift wasn't the only escalation of tensions between Qatar and its neighbors.
'Supporting Islamists'
Read more
An aerial view of Doha, Qatar © Jacquelyn Martin Key Arab League states cut ties with Qatar over ‘supporting terrorism’

Qatar has long faced criticism over its alleged support of Islamists, including the Sunni Islamist political group the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been outlawed by both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Doha previously faced a backlash from Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia for supporting former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood member. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from Qatar over the situation in March 2014.

Those ambassadors returned to Qatar eight months later, after it forced some Brotherhood members to leave the country and quieted others.

However, the 2014 escalation was far less severe than the current rift, as it did not see a land and sea blockade, or the expulsion of Qatari citizens from its neighbors' territories.
Ties to Iran?

In a Monday statement, Saudi Arabia also accused Qatar of collaborating with Iran-backed militias in the largely Shiite eastern region of Qatif, and also in Bahrain. However, Qatar has previously denied ties to Tehran.

READ MORE: Qatar-Saudi spat threatens Riyadh’s influence. But what are the Saudis really worried about?

Qatar has adamantly denied that it funds extremist groups, despite claims from its regional neighbors and Western officials. However, it remains a major financial patron of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and has been the home of exiled Hamas official Khaled Mashaal since 2012.
Monday spin

Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were the first to announce they were cutting ties with Qatar on Monday.
Read more
© Mohammed Dabbous Oil seesaws after Qatar shunned by Arab neighbors over alleged terrorism links

The Saudis’ state-run SPA news agency alleged that Qatar "embraces multiple terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at disturbing stability in the region, including the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS [Islamic State, formerly ISIS/ISIL] and Al-Qaeda, and promotes the message and schemes of these groups through their media constantly.”
Riyadh also urged "all brotherly countries and companies" to cut ties with Qatar.
Egypt was the next country to jump on board, with Cairo stating that "the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt has decided to sever diplomatic relations with Qatar because of the continued hostility of the Qatari authorities towards Egypt." It also accused Doha of supporting terrorist organizations, including the Muslim Brotherhood.
Yemen later joined the growing list of countries turning away from Qatar, accusing it of working alongside its enemies in the ongoing civil war, Al Arabiya and Reuters reported, citing state news agency Saba.
It also stated that it supports the decision by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen to remove Qatar from its ranks.
The eastern-based government of Libya was next, with Foreign Minister Mohammed Dairi announcing it was also cutting ties, according to Reuters.
The Maldives later followed suit, according to Al Arabiya.
Several airlines based in the UAE have said they will stop flying between Dubai and Doha from Tuesday, including Emirates, Etihad, FlyDubai, and Air Arabia.
Saudi Arabian Airlines (Saudia) has also suspended all flights to Qatar, the company tweeted on Monday.
The Monday decisions to cut ties with Qatar come just 10 days after US President Donald Trump visited Riyadh to call on Muslim countries to stand against Islamist extremists. He singled out Iran as a key source of funding and support for militant groups.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jun 2017 08:18

Many Qatari royals were hunting in deserts of South Iraq and abducted by militants: payment of over $1billion given to secure release of Qatari royals is being touted as main reason behind sudden development...

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Jun 2017 08:33

Ransom payment being equated to dealings with the hated Shia? That sounds pretty extreme even for these types. Sounds more likely that Quatar, with its journalists, came to the conclusion that it was time to jump off the sinking ship. Either way, a win for Putin. Sunni coalition is showing serious cracks. One sharp blow now...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 12:32

IndraD wrote:Many Qatari royals were hunting in deserts of South Iraq and abducted by militants: payment of over $1billion given to secure release of Qatari royals is being touted as main reason behind sudden development...

afair they were abducted by some offshoot of the PMU or tribal militia?

it may have been a pressure point built up to get the citizens of fuah and kafraya finally evacuated - everyone is gone now - the earlier aleppo ceasefire related deal had fallen through , jihadis had burned buses and stopped the evac.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/q ... 08279.html

qatar and turkey also brokered the de escalation zone deal with now permits the syrians to focus all attention on ISIS. turkey is sitting pretty with its own jihadis and idlib-north aleppo under its flag and has no use for isis anymore. the oil smuggling route is cut. jihadis are feeding, training and resting - no airstrikes to worry about.

this de escalation will displease two players mainly - Saudis and massa.

if qatar is tight with erdogan means they supplied weapons to northfront jihadis not the ISIS.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 12:33

rommelish battles east of palmyra as saa advances in and around arak/T3 . if ISIS lines are broken in this belt, there is nothing but empty desert and the odd vbied attack all the way 150km to deir azzor. syrians are using roving gunships to hit these mobile isis bands in the desert - easy to spot and take out.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sa ... east-homs/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 12:35

russia has announced it is ready to supply S400 systems to turkiye. erdogan is sitting pretty being wooed by all sides - good bench strength of jihadis, strong army/AF now purged of gulenists and a unbeatable location on bosporus. jails are full, and economy will rebound.

PKK is yet to find a sugar daddy to seriously go at the turks.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Jun 2017 12:47

Singha wrote:russia has announced it is ready to supply S400 systems to turkiye. erdogan is sitting pretty being wooed by all sides - good bench strength of jihadis, strong army/AF now purged of gulenists and a unbeatable location on bosporus. jails are full, and economy will rebound.

PKK is yet to find a sugar daddy to seriously go at the turks.

Once Kurds gets their independence which US is seriously pushing as we can see from recent DIA statements then Turkey relation with West will be at a qualatitively different level , even the Iraqis would hate to have an Independent Kurd nation but are happy to accomodate then with autonomy.

Kurdistan will be a key role in the coming decade in West Asia politics.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Jun 2017 14:21

UlanBatori wrote:Come on, fess up Comrade Vlad. This has all the imprints of a Russian hack> nicely drove a wedge up the musharrafs of these birathers.

You are obsessed with ghusaoing Pootin and Russia everywhere more than lefties are obsessed with ghusaoing Modi everywhere.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 16:12

as a dark lord, he is everywhere and nowhere...with that evil giggle of his.

and he commands vast armies of hackers and hybrid-war specialists. intellectually even the old soviets made sure their top echelon were pretty sharp , despite the need to follow party line. this i think is the model Cheen has also adopted.

nikita kruschev started off a political komissar reporting back to stalin from the stalingrad front, a bypass dotted line chain ..... spying and cunning is 2nd nature to such handpicked elites.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:07

Yusha Yuseef‏Verified account @MIG29_ 4h4 hours ago
Syrian Mod source : Syrian Army have killed 50 of ISIS durning repelled the Attack

Dier Ezzor : Sytian Army Repelled ISIS attack on Tall Syriatel and Browk hill and Al-Sanouf Hill and Banorama area

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:09

no wonder the isis have their panties in a bunch wanting to take deir azzor....raqqa is breached!

Dr Partizan‏ @Dr_Partizan 7m7 minutes ago
At 4pm local time, the Syrian Democratic Forces entered Raqqa, the capital city of the Islamic State. Clashes ongoing with ISIS terrorists.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:14

in iraqi nineveh desert, the pmu is landing some resounding slaps on the ISIS hamlets

Emmanuel‏ @EmmanuelGMay 20h20 hours ago
South #Shingal :#PMU free 5 villages near #Iraqi - #Syrian border + 4 villages E of Sîba Şêx Xidir from #Daesh v @iraqi_day + @warmediateam

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:17

Jonathan Dworkin‏ @JonathanDworkin Jun 4
Map of #Kirkuk and the #Hawija Pocket, June 4th. Coalition hits #Daesh along front with #Peshmerga, as attacks continue along #Tigris.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:24

a large convoy of pmu heading to saudi border to catch anyone trying to sneak in or out

https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/statu ... 4629074944

reports say daish has collapsed between al-baaj to syrian border and ran away...so its a matter of occupying more points and colouring the map red ... looks kind of uninhabited...pmu is moving south along that border road cleaning this mess up.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:32

Iraqi Day @iraqi_day 4h4 hours ago
More
Map update
#PMU control over 80% of west #Mosul desert and are moving rapidly along the #Syria / #Iraq borderline.

Iraqi Day ‏ @iraqi_day 3h3 hours ago
More
TOTAL ANNIHILATION OF #ISIS IN WEST #MOUSL DESERT.

#PMU liberated 23 villages and 3 housing complexes in just 7 hours. #Iraq

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:40

so it seems kataib hezbollah was supposed to be paid $500 mil ransom but abadi confiscated the money and for sake of fuah and kafraya people the hostages were still released.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 03946.html