Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Jun 2017 15:40

kurds are mobilizing for a serious war with turkey per various indications on twitter. they are publishing threatening images like this

russians have sent 160 more troops and 10 IFVs to their Efrin base

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Jun 2017 17:59

Yuck , Independent Kurds is just a US creation neither Iraq , Turkey or Iran would like to see them independent

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Jun 2017 20:24

US doesn't give a sh*t about any independent Kurdistan; they were just using them as expendable cannon fodder for ISIS. The US will be selling the Kurds down the river in short order; mark my words.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Jun 2017 23:47

Tigers and repub guard have clanged shut the ithriya resafa gate trapping 100s of isis in khanasser

https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/statu ... 5014430720

Supplies can flow to resafa now for next phase.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 09:09

south of the ithiriya - resafa gate, the eastern homs pocket of ISIS is finally under attack by the rehabilitated desert hawks the suqur al sahra...its the private well equipped militia pro-govt run by a pair of billionaire brothers in latakia. the magaweer al bahr marine infantry is also in their pantheon
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/de ... lear-path/

among the syrian militias (non army), the desert hawks i have seen to be the most well equipped and mechanised. they have a lot of shilkas and technicals with hmg/cannons and provided overwatch fire support from the outskirts of south aleppo while tigers, repub guard, and liwa al quds went in and tore the jihadis a new one.

relations with tigers and repub guards are said to be a bit tense as these govt run forces do not approve of some of the more unsavoury side businesses of the desert hawks. but i guess in times like these, wolves , tigers, rattlers anyone who gets the job done are put to work ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 09:15

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suqur_al-Sahara

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 09:17

Sarah Abdallah‏ @sahouraxo 11h11 hours ago

In 2017 alone, 500,000 Syrian refugees have returned home to Aleppo, Damascus, Homs & Hama.

That's what happens when terrorism is defeated!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 09:18

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 2675343361
The'Nimr'Tiger @Souria4Syrians 17h17 hours ago
More
Lebanese army arrested foreign jihadists and Nusra at Arsal camp in Lebanon. Several jihadists detonated themselves with small suicide belts

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 09:18

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 10:35

a more accurate map as the pocket is most salt pan desert. the grey pocket is where isis is holding some villages. unless they cross the road to aleppo and make an escape into the green Idlib zone (where other factions are waiting with sharp knives to gut them), they will be KIA soon

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 18:43

another squatter play

Mosin Nagant‏ @Jevne_Turqvie 4h4 hours ago
More
#Breaking

USA and #SDF / #Ypg officials signed an agreement on the placement of #US troops at the airport of #Tabqa. (south #Raqqa)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 19:16

hell yeah, the game is moving to eastern syria

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jul 2017 09:30

Hassan Ridha‏ @sayed_ridha 11h11 hours ago

Faylaq al-Rahman claims 30 cases of suffocation among its ranks + accuses the Syrian Arab Army of using chlorine gas on Ayn Terma, Damascus

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jul 2017 09:32

Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 22h22 hours ago

Peter Hitchens offers a thought experiment

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jul 2017 13:07

probably in khanasir deserts , saa bombing daish strongholds ..or desert hawks in east of salamiyeh

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jul 2017 15:27

100s of isis fighters trapped in khanassir desert prepare to fight to death
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pi ... ap-update/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Jul 2017 20:23

Zakharova: Propaganda campaign on ‘Damascus using chemical weapons’ is launched

https://www.rt.com/news/394986-propagan ... -chemical/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jul 2017 21:40

video - syrian kabilas on the march to deir azzor some 80km away

the desert is mostly drivable even for regular pickup trucks

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/vi ... eir-ezzor/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jul 2017 22:25

Abdullah Bozkurt‏ @abdbozkurt 4h4 hours ago
More
Turkey's #Erdogan declares main opposition party CHP is no longer a political opposition, but accomplice of terror & pawn for foreign powers

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 03 Jul 2017 09:53

If the Jews/US won't allow a road link between Iran/Iraq & Lebanon, then the situation is pretty simple. Either Russia & Assad give up on southern Syria and hand it over to the jihadists, or they go to war with the United States. I see no alternative (unless there's some other clever way to get the US out of that area).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2017 10:16

wait for a month . by then someone either SDF from east or SAA+PMU from west-east will get to Al bukamal. whoever holds that crossing will hold the upper hand.

the syrian army engineers have constructed a desert road of sorts to loop around al tanf into iraq. it has been done not to trade right now, but to ease logistics and to prove a point.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 03 Jul 2017 14:23

Singha wrote:wait for a month . by then someone either SDF from east or SAA+PMU from west-east will get to Al bukamal. whoever holds that crossing will hold the upper hand.

the syrian army engineers have constructed a desert road of sorts to loop around al tanf into iraq. it has been done not to trade right now, but to ease logistics and to prove a point.

What's to stop the US from simply bombing that small force of Syrians? It wouldn't take much; small selective strikes can keep the SAA & allied militias from securing the key road junctions.

I don't see any way a final standoff can be avoided. Syria and Russia have to give up on southern Syria or it's war with the US. Who blinks first? I'm guessing Russia and by extension, the Syrian govt. Also consider the Turks are consolidating control of Idlib provence and preparing to invade Afrin as well. Russia would be facing a two front battle vs both Turkey and the US, to say nothing of Saudi, Jordan, ISIS, FSA, Al-Queda, etc.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Jul 2017 15:34

Assad appears on Syrian banknote for first time
New 2,000-pound banknotes featuring Bashar al-Assad's face go into circulation in Damascus and a number of provinces.
The currency previously only carried images of historic icons or pictures of his father, the late President Hafez al-Assad, who appeared on coins and on an older version of the 1,000-pound note still in circulation.

Syria's currency has plunged in value since the country's conflict began in 2011. Trading at 47 pounds to the dollar in 2011, it is going for 517 pounds to the dollar at present.

Inflation has also soared, reaching an all-time high in 2013, at over 120 percent. Estimates in 2016 put the inflation rate at 50 percent.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Jul 2017 03:30

Looking at the map I see the Syrian govt and Lebanese Hezbollah can still enjoy an easy land link to Iran via either Deir-e-Azzor or Al-Tanf. Al-Tanf is the faster, more optimal route, but the highway running from Iraq border to Deir-e-Azzor would also serve this purpose just fine.

So Deir-e-Azzor and Al-Tanf are the key chokepoints the US & jihadists must hold to effectively cut off Hezbollah from Iran. If Damascus and Hezbollah want to enjoy an easy land link to Iran, they need at least one of these points. Without them, supplies from Iran would still be possible by air, but that's expensive and too easy for the Isrealis to track the flights and just bomb them when they land at an airport (as they have done so many times in the last few years). US moves on both Al-Tanf & Deir-e-Azzor betray the endgame here.

It looks like the Syrians and Russians have already given up on Al-Tanf. It's well-covered by US air power and MLRS, has US spec ops on the ground, and is at this point effectively invulnerable to any push by the SAA or allied militias.

So Deir-e-Azzor is the only viable option left. This explains why US has struck SAA in Deir-e-Azzor repeatedly, trying to help ISIS take the place. The US and SAA will be in a race to take Deir-e-Azzor in the coming weeks. That's probably where the big showdown will be.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 07:10

You missed the memo al tanf has been bypassed and a new route opened to iraqi border road some 50km east with the iraqis meeting the syrians there. Work is ongoing to make it a
Proper metalled road

Al tanf is of no more use as the jordan border to the west
Is already under usa control

You also missed listing the al bukamal crossing

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Jul 2017 12:00

Ah - clever! So what is the US game plan, then? To cutoff the entire Syria/Iraq border? Like you pointed out, it is just empty desert after all. There's no reason new roads can't be laid down, and relatively fast at that.

So the only way to cutoff Syria from Iran would be to control all of southern Syria. That's worrisome because it means the US is willing to go all the way, and guarantees a big showdown soon. Unless the Russians are willing to accept a strategic loss on that level. Maybe?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 12:31

US has the intent but likely not the trained manpower for this task as of now. its a herculean task for anyone

there were a few 100/few 1000 militants trained and moved in from jordan who are still fighting the syrian army north west of the al tanf region. another set of jihadis is busy fighting SAA and ISIS at the daraa border region with jordan.

there are no US pasand forces east of al tanf all the way to ash shahdadi around 40km east of deir azzor where the SDF stopped its advance in the pre-raqqa days.

after Raqqa, whether the SDF arab tribes can be paid/threatened to keep marching south fighting ISIS in well fortified areas all the way to al bukamal is the question? so far they have thrown up no Omar mukhtar type charismatic leader who can be propped up as a "Shah of east syria" (US certified) and lead a "country" of sorts.

the kurds have leaders but are not interested even in ruling raqqa after its done. they are terrified of what Erdogan is planning in the ominously named euphrates 'sword' for Efrin and north syria and what posture assad and putin will take and whether US can stop this. putin could have dangled the S400 infront of the turks to make such threatening moves to distract the kurds away from the raqqa front or atleast them not have them move any further down.

they could try some judo move like landing in the desert with army rangers west of deir azzor in the path of the oncoming SAA, declaring it some cute name like "firebase montana" and blandly saying that a radius of 100km around it is off limits to syrians , persians and dogs and will be attacked like Al tanf...infact unless the PMU pushes in from Iraq soon, they will probably do that south of Ash shahdadi and secure the eastern flank of the euphrates even if conceding the west to persians. from such bases drones and local "freedom fighters" can atleast monitor the persian traffic if not disrupt them.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 12:40

fierce battles are raging east of T3-arak and near T2 station where ISIS is resisting. next 4 weeks are crucial for syrians to break the back of ISIS in the desert and reach the euphrates at multiple points.

Sukhnah will be bypassed.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Jul 2017 13:12

The US simply hasn't the stamina to fight another decade in the ME.Iran ,from its proven track record,Iran-Iraq War,etc.,will easily outlast any US deployment of forces.The huge Shiite population in Iraq will support Iranian overt and covert moves.The US's Sunni Arab allies ,like the Soothis and co.,cannot shoot unless it is from another's back! Even the most experienced rent-boy in the globe,Pakistan, has declined to play the role of patsy and get its privy regions torched by Shiite warriors,who are waiting for their revenge for the manner in which Pak is treating its Shiite minority back home.

Moreover,the Iranians have sent in their men to fight...and win against ISIS in conjunction with the Hiz under the leadership of legendary general Qasem Suleimani,described as the Persian Rommel,"Orenz of Persia" etc.etc. These are highly motivated warriors fighting for the security of their country and backyard,their region,not the West's.Syrian govt. forces are also fighting for their own survival and have successfully with Russian support ,staved off ISIS and are winning back swathes of their territory.Ultimately,you need grunts on the ground to hold territory,you can't control it from the air,something that the locals possess and which the US,UK,NATO do not,why they've been unable to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan for instance. That war has lasted far longer than the Vietnam War and the US is back in the quagmire that it created.

There was a debate on the BBC yesterday about what would happen after ISIS ws 'defeated" in Syria/Iraq. The famous Arab journo who regularly appears,said that it had options,most likely to retreat to around 19 countries where it would work covertly.Its problem was the same,announcing the Caliphate and having to provide for the captive population,holding the ground like a regular state. Once its hold on oil disappeared ,it was the beginning of the end.Revenue from where? Reinventing itself as an international terrorist confederation,with no statehood overheads,it would be far better placed to conduct terror strike across continents using social media to whip up its extremist ideology in the minds of Muslims living in the west in particular. The pandering to Muslim immigration all over Europe has led to the human "bombs" having already penetrated a nation's borders ,well-entrenched in the host state ,ready to explode whenever it wanted too.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 14:48

>> The famous Arab journo who regularly appears

who is he ? by any chance haydar-al-khoei ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 14:53

this is not the famous gingerbeard who was killed long ago
Peto Lucem Retweeted
DoC‏ @DocPakistan 7h7 hours ago
#BREAKING - Prominent #ISIS leader al-Shishani announced dead by ISIS. #Iraqi forces killed him in #Mosul clashes with #Chechen #ISIS unit
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD2wuM4WsAAXDWr.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 15:02

Haidar Sumeri‏
@IraqiSecurity
IMPORTANT:

Large US troop movement in #Iraq. Away from #Mosul (Qayyarah AB, red) and towards the border with #Syria (Ayn Al-Asad AB, blue).

Haidar Sumeri Retweeted Haidar Sumeri
3 possibilities:
•Routine rotation.
•Sinister Al-Tanf/Syria-related motive.
•Preparation for the upcoming Al-Qa'im offensive in W. #Iraq.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Jul 2017 16:37

Syrian T-72B3 using Gun Launched Missile to take out Terrorist Target at long distance

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 17:08

These are desert hawks east of salamiyah. Being privately funded they have good salary and equipment .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 21:28

Y. Kanan wrote:Ah - clever! So what is the US game plan, then? To cutoff the entire Syria/Iraq border? Like you pointed out, it is just empty desert after all. There's no reason new roads can't be laid down, and relatively fast at that.

So the only way to cutoff Syria from Iran would be to control all of southern Syria. That's worrisome because it means the US is willing to go all the way, and guarantees a big showdown soon. Unless the Russians are willing to accept a strategic loss on that level. Maybe?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/vi ... aqqa-isis/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2017 21:29

gen Jaber visits his desert hawks

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/to ... east-hama/

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 Jul 2017 11:53

Aus,that vclip looks as if Mad Max and Sons of Anarchy have combined!

Abdel Bari Atwan is the editor-in-chief of Rai al-Youm, an Arab world digital news and opinion website. He was the editor-in-chief of the London-based pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi from the founding of that paper in 1989 until July 2013.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Bari_Atwan
Xcpts:

Abdel Bari Atwan was born on 17 February 1950 in Deir al-Balah, a Palestinian refugee camp in the Gaza Strip,[1] two years after the creation of Israel. His parents Zilfa and Muhammad Atwan lived in Isdud. He was one of their 11 children. After receiving his primary school education at the camp, his schooling was continued first in Jordan in 1967, and then in Cairo, Egypt.

In 1970, he entered Cairo University where he studied journalism and also received a diploma in English-Arabic translation. After his graduation, he started work as a journalist, first with the Al Balaagh newspaper in Libya, then with Al Madina in Saudi Arabia. In 1978, he moved to London, where he has lived ever since, and assumed a job with Asharq Al Awsat, a major Saudi-owned international daily. In 1980, he set up the London office of Al Madina and in 1984 returned to Asharq Al Awsat.

In 1989, Al Quds Al Arabi was founded by expatriate Palestinians and Abdel Bari Atwan was offered the job as editor-in-chief, which he has held since. The paper has as of 2007 grown into one of the major pan-Arab dailies, and is known for its strident Arab nationalism and defense of the Palestinian cause. It has been banned and censored repeatedly in several Arab countries for vocal criticism of what the paper alleges is their autocratic rule and excessive deference to Israel and the United States. As editor of Al Quds Al Arabi, Abdel Bari Atwan has become a well-known Arab public figure, and is a regular guest on Dateline London on BBC World, Sky News, Al Jazeera English and CNN World, as well as on several Arabic-language networks. He has contributed numerous editorials to a variety of English newspapers including The Guardian, The Mail on Sunday, The Scottish Herald and others; he is a columnist for Gulf News.

He has written four books, with the latest, Islamic State: The Digital Caliphate, published by Saqi Books and the University of California Press in 2015. Atwan has also contributed chapters and essays to several academic and specialist books and journals.

Known for his lively delivery, Atwan regularly gives talks and lectures around the world at a variety of events and venues from the Edinburgh Festival to Harvard University.

n 1996 Abdel Bari Atwan interviewed Osama bin Laden. He had to travel through the mountains, dressed in Afghan clothing. He later called the experience his "most frightening trip". His impression of bin Laden was that he is "a phenomenon, extreme". Atwan stayed in the caves for four days, sleeping in primitive conditions in sub-zero temperatures.
In his book, The Secret History of al-Qa'ida Atwan states, "I do not endorse or in any way support al-Qa'ida's agenda" and "I utterly condemn the attacks on innocent citizens in the West".

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jul 2017 15:10

^^ the desert hawks are not known as foot infantry...they are more like motor rifle division with attached indep artillery and tank regiment.
good for standoff pounding in open country. ..like they are doing now. some looks like sabiha going by physiques and large bellies.

meantime the ISIS tried another large kabila attack in western nineveh on PMU. unlike the isolated iraqi army post in anbar which they overran and destroyed recently, the PMU saw them coming from 3 directions and soundly thrashed them with heavy losses inflicted

pix and full report here https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ir ... st-losses/

the attack point was the current southern most point of PMU on the border, east of ash shahdadi

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jul 2017 15:16

Mosul - a small area with 100 est daish next to the tigris is what remains.

by weekend its gonna be over.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 05 Jul 2017 18:56

Singha wrote:^^ the desert hawks are not known as foot infantry...some looks like sabiha going by physiques and large bellies.

Fighting the war in style, driving not walking, and an ice coler in every vehicle with refreshments no doubt. The Saudis tried this style of warfare in Yemen and it didn't work out very well for them.

These desert hawks must be a lot more competent with their tactics and coordination. As long as the know what they're doing I suppose the can be as fat as they want!

I just worry what happens when the US starts targeting them. Vehicles in the open desert, no foot infantry... one sortie could wreck a whole company of these guys.