Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 07 Jul 2017 10:18

Politically, eleven would gain if this situation drags till his re-election. His game plan is to keep spitting venom in global times against India till he gets re-elected.

In October or so once he is re-elected, he will try to do something militarily and escalate.

He knows that keeping the situation boiling would be good for his political ambitions for now.

Expect some border action as soon as he gets re-elected.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 07 Jul 2017 10:45

Hold current position and don't talk. Mighty impressed with how we've handled the issue until now. Helped bhutan, stopped and rolled back PLA construction activities. Stared Eleven in the eyes and said no can do. If we back away now, it'll only embolden Xi to try this stunt again, with better preparation and a stronger force of soldiers. Given the strategic location, we cannot allow that to happen. Even greater importance is of the fact that if we stare them down and hold our position, we can show them we wont back off if they bark and scream and make a lot of noise and threaten us with repeats of '62. This I think is most important.

To deter future conflicts or to not embolden them by giving in now and giving an impression of being a pushover is what we need to do. We cannot do what these idiot Wire and thinktanki journalists think. Oooh dont take panga yaar, why to fight with the big bad dlagon onlee won't work. We've held our position against the US under worse conditions. Eleven I dare say is easier though different. They're already testing waters in the IOR. We cannot let them keep pushing without asserting our position. Like Samir Saran says 'Bullies need to be counter punched in the face' if they try anything. Until then stand your ground.

What I would like to happen though is backchannel talks with both us and europe to ensure we get political and material support if we need in future. Neither is trustworthy sure, but better be prepared than not. Also to get financial strategy ready to fight without fighting. Trade, as brahma chellaney has been advocating should be how we retaliate to any provocation.

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 07 Jul 2017 10:48

Prasad wrote:Hold current position and don't talk. Mighty impressed with how we've handled the issue until now. Helped bhutan, stopped and rolled back PLA construction activities. Stared Eleven in the eyes and said no can do. If we back away now, it'll only embolden Xi to try this stunt again, with better preparation and a stronger force of soldiers. Given the strategic location, we cannot allow that to happen. Even greater importance is of the fact that if we stare them down and hold our position, we can show them we wont back off if they bark and scream and make a lot of noise and threaten us with repeats of '62. This I think is most important.

To deter future conflicts or to not embolden them by giving in now and giving an impression of being a pushover is what we need to do. We cannot do what these idiot Wire and thinktanki journalists think. Oooh dont take panga yaar, why to fight with the big bad dlagon onlee won't work. We've held our position against the US under worse conditions. Eleven I dare say is easier though different. They're already testing waters in the IOR. We cannot let them keep pushing without asserting our position. Like Samir Saran says 'Bullies need to be counter punched in the face' if they try anything. Until then stand your ground .

What beats me is : How will china save face? We literally pi$$ed on Elevns face. Its humiliation when the Indian GOV said that there was no meeting scheduled with Xi in the bilaterals post the liars stating the meeting is called off.

What would be eleven's response? WIll they carry out activity considering the fact in 10 days we have the Malabar?
Today the rhetoric has toned down btw

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 07 Jul 2017 10:50

And I don't understand why the Indian media is discussing the exercised in Tibet. Do they really have a bearing on the current standoff. Can they mobilize those troops? I mean they are doing a Bollywood. All fart and No shit

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 07 Jul 2017 10:51

India needs to HOLD to present position - physically on ground and diplomatically.

By simply holding its ground, inside Bhutan, India sends very strong signals:

1. We're not pushover when it comes to Chinese/PLA. When required (and given right political dispensation) we can hold Chinese to a standstill. It is up to the Chinese to escalate because Indians have done what needed to be done. Basically, Indians have shows the proverbial mirror to the Chinese.

2. Chinese cannot afford direct escalation - only tangential. This itself sends out a message that India can call China's bluff. And China isn't exactly as big and strong as their propaganda would make you believe.

3. It establishes India as the other 'pole' in Asia. This should attract good points on foreign policy front and more closer cooperation with other SE Asian nations. We prove that we can be net providers of security.

4. Most important - by standing up for Bhutan, we again buttress our credentials with respect to Point (3) above.

5. Any centrifugal tendencies in Bhutan towards 'closer' and independent relations with China have been nixed in the bud. Chinese have foolishly played themselves out of this game. For 20+ years they'd invested in getting Bhutan out of Indian orbit or have more independent relationship with them; this one stupid move has washed all that down the drain.

6. Other states in immediate vicinity - Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar will get a very clear message. That while you can cozy up to China and try to play China card against India, the card has its limitations.

7. China has chosen geographically least advantageous location to push the envelope - if they try any hanky-panky, they'll not even know what hit them. This is no place for them to fight a 'short-local' war. But it is for us.

Having said that - expect a major flare up in DBO/Depsang Plain area. Plus, Demchok. Need to keep a look out for that.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 07 Jul 2017 11:08

Can this escalate into 2 border war with Pakis joining the fun on western borders ? Why should they not and try to grab Kashmir/Siachin/Sir Creek while Indians are busy with Cheeni log.

If I were to war game, Chinese should get Pakis to heat up the borders in J&K and Punjab while they play hide and seek with IA.
This to my mind is going to end with someone losing face and kick in the teeth.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 07 Jul 2017 11:10

Exactly. It also gives other nations under the Chinese threat umbrella to realise that we can hold our own against the chinese. The Vietnamese depty PM is here in Delhi this week. Build a rail link to Vietnam, do joint ASW exercises in SCS with them and Japan if they're interested. Needle but in a low-noise way.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Jul 2017 11:12

A reasonably good read on the military balance across the LAC

http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/chinas-c ... -of-india/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jul 2017 11:14

>>Why should they not and try to grab Kashmir/Siachin/Sir Creek while Indians are busy with Cheeni log.

because they know we will return and thrash them soundly.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Jul 2017 11:28

WE have v.good relations with the BDesh govt. as of now and should leverage the opportunity.We recently exchanges some elnclaves with BD,an issue that was stuck for decades and must negotiate with them a widening of the "neck",where they can give us some valuable territory in the corridor,while we compensate them elsewhere.Teesta water sharing another issue,not resolved during Hasina's recent visit,but could also be used as a most valuable bargaining chip.

But guys,let's hurt China in our own small way.Boycott their goods,spread the message.Lobby the govt. parivar for eco blacklisting their export outfits.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Jul 2017 11:38

rohitvats wrote:India needs to HOLD to present position - physically on ground and diplomatically.

Having said that - expect a major flare up in DBO/Depsang Plain area. Plus, Demchok. Need to keep a look out for that.

Good post Rohit. Even if the PLA has a month for a troop build up along the LAC, activating most of its Western military district, we would still outnumber them in every sector. Give that DBO/Demchok are the most likely places for the next Chinese stunt, perhaps we should be proactive
and do a little stealthy acquisition of land in these sectors, as the PLA has been doing for years. Just send patrols out a few hundred meters further
(not far enough for any 3rd country to believe we have crossed over into Tibet) and take control of a couple of tactically important features.
We have 2 tank regiments in place in Ladakh, while the PLA exercise showcased 1 tank modified to operate at high altitude.
Doing a `mini Kargil' on the PLA will have the following implications:

- Eleven realises there are consequences for his provocation.
- Even if the Chinese public is not told, the CCP politburo and countries in the region will know what happened. A huge loss of face for Eleven
within the Communist party (much like what happened to Krushchev after the Cuban missile crisis, though he did not too badly there).
- Other countries are even more encouraged to stand up to Chinese bullying and salami slice tactics.
- Even when the PLA says India has (really) encroached on its territory, it will be seen as case of crying wolf and they won't be taken seriously.
PLA may not even report the incursion, fearing loss of H&D.

I think we need to do the following, now, mostly for public consumption:

- Get the king of Bhutan to speak out and say that the PLA encroached on his territory and the IA is there at his invitation, in response.
- Have a press conf or interview where RM or FM respond to questions from friendly journos, giving out our point of view, without making it an
official statement (e.g. Eleven did not cancel the G20 meeting, because he did not ask for one etc).
- Have a senior RSS leader, or someone like Sub Swamy, raise the point about the legality of Tibet & East Turkestan's accession to China
or the need to recognise China. It tells China that two can play at this game, without making it a change in the Govt's official position.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Jul 2017 11:46

Philip wrote:WE have v.good relations with the BDesh govt. as of now and should leverage the opportunity.We recently exchanges some elnclaves with BD,an issue that was stuck for decades and must negotiate with them a widening of the "neck",where they can give us some valuable territory in the corridor,while we compensate them elsewhere.Teesta water sharing another issue,not resolved during Hasina's recent visit,but could also be used as a most valuable bargaining chip.

But guys,let's hurt China in our own small way.Boycott their goods,spread the message.Lobby the govt. parivar for eco blacklisting their export outfits.

About 20% of all our imports from China are mobile phones & their components. Apart from increasing customer duty (permissible under WTO),
Simply set a floor price at which such imports will be valued - e.g. Rs 10,000 for a phone. This will increase the price of Chinese imports but not
the iPhone or most Korean models.

At the same time, get Taiwan's Foxconn and other vendors to set up shop in India on a war footing. This will take the relationship with Taiwan
to the next level (sending a clear signal) and give a boost to Make in India. I'm sure Mukesh Ambani will cooperate if GOI asks him what he needs
to make Jio phones in India, with no Chinese content.

This modest step will stop well short of Media shouting about boycott or `sanctions on China', is within WTO norms and can give us a $ 1 Billion
in additional revenues at the current volume of import. Let Eleven know through back channels that his stunt on the LAC cost him 6500 Crore.
(or, even worse, a multiple of that amount in lost sales).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jul 2017 12:01

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 1586420736

replace iraq with india and isis with cheen

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 07 Jul 2017 12:04

Suprisingly no sabre rattling today. I think Cheeni Media will wait for G20 to end.. Any opinions??

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 07 Jul 2017 12:06

We overestimate our market's importance.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Jul 2017 12:40

Iyersan wrote:Suprisingly no sabre rattling today. I think Cheeni Media will wait for G20 to end.. Any opinions??

This is actually the best time for the PRC to attack as no one would be thinking about a war at a time of global summit.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Jul 2017 12:50

Vikas wrote:Can this escalate into 2 border war with Pakis joining the fun on western borders ? Why should they not and try to grab Kashmir/Siachin/Sir Creek while Indians are busy with Cheeni log.

If I were to war game, Chinese should get Pakis to heat up the borders in J&K and Punjab while they play hide and seek with IA.
This to my mind is going to end with someone losing face and kick in the teeth.

Why does it have to be binary? Defend the Chinese border OR the Baki border?
Why don't we believed out Army chief when he has clearly stated that IA is ready for 2.5 front war?
Has the IA/BSF moved men and material from the Baki border?

BTW, I would like the bakis to make a play somewhere in Kashmir and we can use that as a pretext to destroy the newly build bridge(s) on KKH highway to bypass the attabad lake.

prasannasimha · Post by **prasannasimha** » 07 Jul 2017 12:52

Actually everyone will be watching as it is a typical chinese tactic. They create problems when their PM is visiting a country or summit to try to make a statement.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Jul 2017 12:56

Only the Chinese know what they will do but the *encounter* at doklam will ensure that IA is on high alert all across the Indo-China border.

prasannasimha · Post by **prasannasimha** » 07 Jul 2017 12:57

It's a given that the poodle will be made to yip for its master as well those quislings within India like the commies. They have to serve their paymaster

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 07 Jul 2017 13:06

As Ramana Sir suggested
3, Hawk - Border war,
Can the experienced folk who are hawks put a timeline if it can be deduced

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Jul 2017 13:14

rohitvats wrote:India needs to HOLD to present position - physically on ground and diplomatically.

Good points Rohitvats.

I will add the following too.

It would also prove that India is a dependable ally, a commodity which is in very short supply everywhere.
The message will go much farther too when ASEAN is looking up to India for its leadership in taking on China. Countries like Vietnam & Singapore especially are definitely looking up to us even though Singapore hosts the US navy and Vietnam-US relations are getting better. The informal alliance of US-India-Japan-Australia also needs India to stand-up to China bully.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Jul 2017 13:16

Vinod Ji wrote:We overestimate our market's importance.

It is both over estimated and under estimated at the same time. Sound confusing? Here is my take.

It is over estimated in tactical sense i.e. short run. It will not prevent China from trying to *teach India a lesson* till such a step can be localized.
It is under estimated in the strategic sense i.e long run. Our market remains the LAST big under penetrated market in the world. China will not want situation to escalate to such an extent that it turns an entire generation of Indian anti-China and thus loose access to such a big market for say 20-30 years while Japan/EU/US make steady inroads.

Modi is not accorded welcome because the western world thinks of him a great leader but because he is the leader of a country of 1.3 billion ~~people~~ consumers. Hell they might hate him for his *perceived* policies but do they have a choice if they want market access?

Yesterday, I came across a writeup in one of the furrin well respected website/news org, citing some famous org/institute, stated that India is going to be one of the poles of growth for the next decade.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Jul 2017 13:19

Let's not consider Australia as reliable just yet. Ket them proove it over the next few years.

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 07 Jul 2017 13:31

http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/chinese-arm ... re-1721722 --> Shastri Chari Garu (You can trust him)
Chinese Army Itching For Escalation With India. Beware
The India-China standoff at the Northern tri-junction in Doklam (Donglang) area bordering Bhutan has brought divisions of the armies of the two countries face to face in one of the world's highest-altitude theatres.

The standoff began when the Chinese started construction of a road up to Yadong town in the Chumbi Valley. The narrow stretch of land touches India and Bhutan where China has a very small strip of land in what is actually Tibet, not enough to build even a footpath. The Chinese attempt seems to be to take the entire land between India and Bhutan and become an entity in the border. The lower portion of the Chumbi Valley points south towards India touching the Chicken Neck, highly sensitive to India and Bhutan. Considering the narrow approach road, China has been claiming 269 sq kms in the border as belonging to them.

In 1996, China offered to swap this area with Bhutan for 495 sq kms of land in the Pasamlung and Jakarlung Valleys in the north-central area of Bumthang during one of the many border talks between Beijing and Thimpu. Bhutan refused to fall for the deal as the land in question was also legitimately claimed by Bhutan as their own land, forcibly taken over by China when they occupied Tibet.

In fact there is a history to the area and China's desperation in getting a foothold in Doklam.

The frequent references to the infamous 1962 war by both sides and in the social media will serve very little purpose unless the strategic planners in New Delhi absorb the enormity of the situation, and also its relevance today. The 1962 war was thrust upon India as part of a larger Chinese strategy. China had started moving into the Aksai Chin area before 1961. There was still a large area which was unoccupied and Indian posts were sparsely present. According to reports prepared after the 1962 debacle, the Indian army reclaimed a big chunk of territory. Subsequently, the Chinese army's withdrawal was a strategic move and soon, the retaliation took place that turned into a major conflict.

China has travelled a long way in history since 1962. Both India and China made serious efforts to mend fences and re-establish diplomatic and economic ties. Years later, by 1980, the two countries came much closer diplomatically and by 2008, China had become India's largest trading partner.

Yet, trade, commerce and industry notwithstanding, Beijing is not just a political establishment. This is the first time since the reign of Chairman Mao that the political boss of China has assumed two more important posts. The present President Xi Jinping is also the chief of army and secretary general of the party, the highest in power, position, decision-making processes and execution.

Another important factor in China's internal governance process and matters of external affairs is the close proximity of People's Liberation Army (PLA) to the day-to-day running of the country, which was earlier the exclusive prerogative of the Chinese Communist Party. This brings into focus the thinking, writings and also the relationship between the secretary general of the party and the PLA.

The PLA since 2008 has been seriously engaged in working out policy parameters for Beijing especially in areas of flashpoints, conflict and crisis management and non-conventional warfare such as cyber and physiological warfare. Interestingly, according to the PLA, strategic and political objectives must always be prioritized over military objectives in planning, executing and controlling conflicts.

Unlike accidental or inadvertent conflicts, China strongly believes in deliberate escalation where certain measures initiated by the state or non-state actors are intended to cause a geo-political and advantageous change through a crisis or conflict. This includes escalatory measures that political decision-makers believes are certain to reach the intended result, such as the occupation of Tibet, or the social and demographic change in Xinjiang where the Islamic separatists are waging a freedom struggle to free China-occupied Uyghuristan (now renamed as Xinjiang).

Strangely, the political establishment in Beijing appears to be endorsing the PLA's view that in a conflict, it is necessary to seize the initiative, but it is also critical to preserve strategic and political stability and operational flexibility, in order to respond to an adversary's actions without unnecessarily escalating the conflict.

Going by the huge volumes of strategic thinking with the secret confines of Beijing, it is important for New Delhi to study the present border standoff in detail. China is eager to settle the border dispute with Bhutan and also probably with other countries except India. India's commitment to protect the security and strategic interests of Bhutan and centuries-old Buddhist connections are certainly major irritants for Beijing.

It will be in the best interest of India if New Delhi adopts a policy of wait-and-watch rather than enter into a jingoistic diatribe thereby aiding the "conflict escalation theory" of the PLA, which, according to China watchers, is itching for a showdown with the political establishment to retain its supremacy in the decision-making process. Needless to say, New Delhi should do everything in its command to strengthen the army at the border and be prepared to thwart attempts by Chinese army to usurp territory or create strategic disadvantage to India and Bhutan.

Bhutan cannot be allowed to become another Tibet.

Seshadri Chari is Secretary General of Forum for Integrated National Security (FINS) and commentator on strategic and foreign policy matters.

nam · Post by **nam** » 07 Jul 2017 13:34

Hold the line. Beef up the reserves behind our line and in other areas. If we can be keep the entire IA on alert for a year against Pakis, I am sure 10 divisions can do the same.

Use the standoff time to sort out logistics issues (road, rails etc) and harden IAF bases in East on war footing. Ask HAL to speed up SU-30 production. In 3 months until the winter sets in( if the standoff stays on or not) , we can do quite a lot. Show the Chinese we are preparing for a fight.. without firing the first shot. If GoI really want, it can move mountains in 3 months.

The Chinese will try a stunt in another area. Launch a heli ops and deploy behind the incursion and cut off the troops and supplies. Do this for every incursion they do. If they want to fight their way out.. well we will give them a fight.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Jul 2017 13:35

Pratyush wrote:Let's not consider Australia as reliable just yet. Ket them proove it over the next few years.

Pratyush, I do understand. But, the other two partners in the alliance have a strong relationship with the Aussies already. India has, IMO, acceded to that by starting a separate military relationship with the Aussies. It is only a matter of time before the Aussies will be formally inducted into the emerging (some might say, 'emerged' ) alliance; most probably next year.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Jul 2017 13:43

US bombers challenge China in South China Sea flyover - Reuters

Two US bombers flew over the disputed South China Sea, the US Air Force said on Friday, asserting the right to treat the region as international territory despite China's claims in the busy waterway.

The flight from Guam on Thursday came as US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare for a likely meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Germany. The two leaders were expected to discuss what Beijing can do to rein in Pyongyang's missiles and nuclear weapons programmes.

The United States believes North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile on Tuesday that put parts of the US mainland within range of Pyongyang's warheads for the first time.

China claims nearly all of the South China Sea, through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes each year, a stance contested by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. Beijing usually protests against freedom of navigation operations such as bomber flights.

The United States has criticised China's build-up of military facilities in the South China Sea, concerned that they could be used to extend Beijing's strategic reach.

The two Lancers that made the latest flight had earlier trained with Japanese jet fighters in the neighbouring East China Sea, the first time the two forces had conducted joint night-time drills.

"This is a clear demonstration of our ability to conduct seamless operations with all our allies," US Air Force spokesman Major Ryan Simpson said in a statement.

Two US B-1B Lancer bombers flew from Guam over the South China Sea last month, while a US warship carried out a manoeuvring drill within 12 nautical miles of one of China's artificial islands in the waterway in late May.

GopiD · Post by **GopiD** » 07 Jul 2017 13:44

pankajs wrote:
Vikas wrote:Can this escalate into 2 border war with Pakis joining the fun on western borders ? Why should they not and try to grab Kashmir/Siachin/Sir Creek while Indians are busy with Cheeni log.

If I were to war game, Chinese should get Pakis to heat up the borders in J&K and Punjab while they play hide and seek with IA.
This to my mind is going to end with someone losing face and kick in the teeth.
Why does it have to be binary? Defend the Chinese border OR the Baki border?
Why don't we believed out Army chief when he has clearly stated that IA is ready for 2.5 front war?
Has the IA/BSF moved men and material from the Baki border?

BTW, I would like the bakis to make a play somewhere in Kashmir and we can use that as a pretext to destroy the newly build bridge(s) on KKH highway to bypass the attabad lake.

Bakis should keep in mind that they are dealing with a different India now. There will be no mercy this time around. If they try something, they would probably play it to our advantage give us an excuse to take back POK along with cutting off the One Bully One Rogue's (OBOR) forever. They can't even claim to have reached the Nuke threshold as we would have only taken the disputed territory. Even by their own admission, GB/POK is not part of their country.

nam · Post by **nam** » 07 Jul 2017 13:47

Having said everything, I welcome this bullying by the Chinese. Nothing like Pakis and Chinese war/threats to wake up Indian public & politicians and progress Indian defence,

Pakistan. Thank you for Kargil. Thank you for forcing us to ask Israel for supplies and in turn laying the foundation of a technology oasis.
Chinese, thank for 62. We have a large formidable army because of 62.

Please continue threatening and waging war.

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 07 Jul 2017 13:47

What actual use will the Alliance be in case of a India China war?

I do not see American and Japanese troops fighting the Chinese along with Indian troops on our borders.
Nor do I see their navies attacking the PLAN on the high seas.

It's useful for posturing, but moment actual full scale war starts they will quickly RTB. The first to go would be the Aussies.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Jul 2017 13:49

Bhutan not the sole sufferer, Beijing is bullying other nations too - Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, Economic Times

The standoff at the India-Bhutan-China trijunction may be in the news at present but Bhutan is not the only smaller neighbour that has been on the receiving end of China’s territorial ambitions over the past few decades.

Several countries in Central Asia (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia) and East Asia (Taiwan and Japan) have been forced by China to accept either its territorial claims or loans at high interest rates, with failure to repay resulting in China acquiring ownership of projects and land.

“China’s penchant to compare its modern borders with those that existed prior to the perceived ‘historical losses’ of territories is significant to understanding of China’s current boundary issues,” said DS Rajan, a former government official who has served in China.

China’s unresolved land and maritime border disputes with its neighbours continue to hurt its relations with many countries and vitiate regional politics. It shares 22,000 km land borders with 13 neighbouring nations — the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam. Pakistan also has border with China but through PoK.

Many of China’s claims on neighbours’ territories are based on unsubstantiated and unprecedented “historical precedents” dating back centuries, as in the case of Bhutan, according to a report published in Brisbane-based China Daily Mail a few years ago. The publication follows developments in China closely. While China’s land boundary disputes with India and Bhutan remain unresolved, disputes with most of the other neighbours have been settled in its favour.

The unresolved maritime border issues are most serious for China amid competing claims of several littoral nations and the emerging regional order, as per Rajan. He said conditions in this regard pit China against eight littoral parties – Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Taiwan.

China shares maritime borders with four countries – Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea and with the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea.

In the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways with huge potential oil and gas fields to be exploited, China claims most of the water “based on historical facts and international law” and shows them in its maps within its “nine dotted” imaginary line. All littoral nations have officially challenged China’s claims.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Jul 2017 13:57

nirav wrote:What actual use will the Alliance be in case of a India China war?

I do not see American and Japanese troops fighting the Chinese along with Indian troops on our borders.
Nor do I see their navies attacking the PLAN on the high seas.

Me too. That's not what I said either.

Even the Modi government seems to agree with the assessment of the UPA that this alliance is needed. There is simply no truth that this emerging alliance does not exist. So, there should be a reason why Modi is also persisting, in fact investing more, in this alliance.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 07 Jul 2017 14:12

Americans won't fight but we can reasonably expect that they will provide us intel, especially regarding sub movements in IOR.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 07 Jul 2017 14:15

Deans wrote:
About 20% of all our imports from China are mobile phones & their components. Apart from increasing customer duty (permissible under WTO),
Simply set a floor price at which such imports will be valued - e.g. Rs 10,000 for a phone. This will increase the price of Chinese imports but not
the I Phone or most Korean models.

At the same time, get Taiwan's foxconn and other vendors to set up shop in India on a war footing. This will take the relationship with Taiwan
to the next level (sending a clear signal) and give a boost to Make in India. I'm sure Mukesh Ambani will cooperate if GOI asks him what he needs
to make Joi phones in India with no Chinese content.

This modest step will stop well short of Media shouting about boycott or `sanctions on China', is within WTO norms and can give us a $ 1 Billion
in additional revenues at the current volume of import. Let Eleven know through back channels that his stint on the LAC cost him 6500 Crore.
(or, even worse, a multiple of that amount in lost sales).

+1

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Jul 2017 14:16

GopiD wrote:Bakis should keep in mind that they are dealing with a different India now. There will be no mercy this time around. If they try something, they would probably play it to our advantage give us an excuse to take back POK along with cutting off the One Bully One Rogue's (OBOR) forever. They can't even claim to have reached the Nuke threshold as we would have only taken the disputed territory. Even by their own admission, GB/POK is not part of their country.

My take on this is slightly different.

Unlike the bakis we, as a nation and people, have many competing interests and that is one reason that even BJP/Modi hasn't tried to grab POK by force. Now, if it did't make sense to make a play for POK with a relatively peaceful Indo-Chinese border, does it make sense to go that route while the Indo-Chinese front is hot?

It is no ones interest, certainly not in India's, to provoke a wider conflict. Just check the careful messaging from India during the surgical strike or even now wrt the Doklam area form our side. It however makes sense to use any opportunity, provided by the bakis, to demolish the bridges built to bypass the attabad lake. That will cut the CPEC artery and delay that project for about 2-3 years. It will also send a message to both Bakis and China on our intent and capacity to take on CPEC while still keeping things localized.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Jul 2017 14:18

SSridhar wrote: Pratyush, I do understand. But, the other two partners in the alliance have a strong relationship with the Aussies already. India has, IMO, acceded to that by starting a separate military relationship with the Aussies. It is only a matter of time before the Aussies will be formally inducted into the emerging (some might say, 'emerged' ) alliance; most probably next year.

The issue is of Australian lack or resolve that makes me say let's be cautious and let Australia show it's resolve in standing with India. Even if it has been standing with Japan and America with a long time.

So let's wait and see is all I am advocating when it comes to Australia.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Jul 2017 14:20

If anything this makes Lizard feel that we are all ganging against them and in the case of any war on one nation there is a possibility of help from others in the nature of troops or material. Further, who knows what will happen with the perpetual bullying of Lizard there may an anti-China treaty nations like NATO soon.

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 07 Jul 2017 14:30

SSridhar wrote:
nirav wrote:What actual use will the Alliance be in case of a India China war?

I do not see American and Japanese troops fighting the Chinese along with Indian troops on our borders.
Nor do I see their navies attacking the PLAN on the high seas.
Me too. That's not what I said either.

Even the Modi government seems to agree with the assessment of the UPA that this alliance is needed. There is simply no truth that this emerging alliance does not exist. So, there should be a reason why Modi is also persisting, in fact investing more, in this alliance.

Yes.
The value of the alliance to me is in its deterrent capability.
China simply cannot fight the combined might of India,Japan and US navies.

On the other hand, if shots are indeed fired, say a Japan China fight, I do not see IN rushing to Japan's rescue. Nor do I see them coming to our aid in case of India China war.

@US, we don't commit even peace keeping troops to their unilateral actions. To think we would actually fight China in case of a US China fight is again far fetched imo.

If shots are fired, the Alliance loses its conventional deterrent value. Till then it's a formidable strategic problem for the Chinese. It's a BIG what IF for them - what if the troika actually fight China together.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 07 Jul 2017 14:31

Deans wrote: - Eleven realises there are consequences for his provocation.
- Even if the Chinese public is not told, the CCP politburo and countries in the region will know what happened. A huge loss of face for Eleven
within the Communist party (much like what happened to Krushchev after the Cuban missile crisis, though he did not too badly there).

Eleven's undoing will be purely based on domestic issues. Tibet is too far away in Chinese people's minds, and any conclusion to the current situation can always be spun by the Chinese as a victory (or handing out a favour to a supplicant state).

I said this before, but any avenue we can prepare for Chinese to back off without loss of face is only for 2 reasons (i) to move things in a direction of our choosing and (ii) lacking a clear H&D compliant unwinding, the Chinese can act unpredictably like a cornered monkey.

However the value in us holding is clearly in showing to China, to the world and to some amongst us that we are no pushovers and will do what it takes to secure our interests.