Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Jul 2017 15:04

i guess the bloodbath thats likely to occur in Idlib will overshadow the current ones.

it truly has a diverse mix of jihadis backed by foreign actors.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Jul 2017 15:09

low flying stream of 8 US helis incl 2 chinooks spotted going into ISIS territory in hawija
https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 1744834560

couple weeks ago kurdish troops on other side of the pocket videoed a similar convoy

hope some kunduz type scam is not afoot

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Jul 2017 17:02

Yuseef Yusha Verified Account @ MIG29_ 1h1 hour ago1 Hour ago Not 1h1 hour ago
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Report: Syrian Army & Allies liberate Al-Hiel field north Ark Field on the Road to Sokhneh

^^ that is 20km from sukhnah, so they have moved 40km east from palmyra

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Jul 2017 21:57

Singha wrote:low flying stream of 8 US helis incl 2 chinooks spotted going into ISIS territory in hawija
https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 1744834560

couple weeks ago kurdish troops on other side of the pocket videoed a similar convoy

hope some kunduz type scam is not afoot

Interesting they must be flying 5-10 m above the ground !

Must be some SF operations against IS or picking up top IS operative to safe heaven back to Saudi

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Jul 2017 23:00

Sf operation will not be in broad daylight surely

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 09 Jul 2017 00:27

Singha wrote:countours of a plan for north syria imho ...

YPG will leave Efrin which will be DMZ
syrian govt will move in for internal law and order
russians will monitor the border for security from turkiye
in exchange Edro will sheath his euphrates sword
this achieves his goal of not having Efrin as a continguous belt for PKK
rest of north syria is already in his bag

turkiye will pull back its jihadis into some safe zones for political settlement
ruaf will slaughter the rest with support of these sarkari jihadis

Probably correct for the most part, but not so sure about Afrin province. Isn't the population majority Kurdish there? Getting the YPG to abandon them would be a hard sell. They might be willing to let the SAA roll in with some assurances of autonomy or something, but they would never abandon their people to the mercy of the Turks. As for N. Syria, the Kurdish part (Rojava) comprises almost the entirety of it. So how does that put them "in the bag" for Turkey?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Jul 2017 07:29

Turkey has grabbed the belt from azaz to jarablous along the border north of rojava under euph shield

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jul 2017 17:58

AFP news agency‏Verified account @AFP 8m8 minutes ago
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#BREAKING Iraq PM declares victory in 'liberated' Mosul

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jul 2017 18:39

Iraqi PM in Mosul: many IS fighters killed while trying to cross river to safety https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mide ... SKBN19U0CT

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi arrived in Mosul on Sunday and congratulated the armed forces for their "victory" over Islamic State after eight months of urban warfare, bringing an end to three years of jihadist rule in the city.

The battle has left large parts of Mosul in ruins, killed thousands of civilians and displaced nearly one million people.

"The commander in chief of the armed forces (Prime Minister) Haider al-Abadi arrived in the liberated city of Mosul and congratulated the heroic fighters and Iraqi people for the great victory," his office said in a statement.

The decaying corpses of militants lay in the narrow streets of the Old City where Islamic State has staged a last stand against Iraqi forces backed by a U.S.-led coalition.

The group vowed to "fight to the death" in Mosul, but Iraqi military spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Rasool told state TV earlier on Sunday that 30 militants had been killed attempting to escape by swimming across the River Tigris that bisects the city.

Cornered in a shrinking area, the militants have resorted to sending women suicide bombers among the thousands of civilians who are emerging from the battlefield wounded, malnourished and fearful.

The battle has also exacted a heavy toll on Iraq's security forces.

The Iraqi government does not reveal casualty figures, but a funding request from the U.S. Department of Defense said the elite Counter Terrorism Service, which has spearheaded the fight in Mosul, had suffered 40 percent losses.

The United States leads an international coalition that is backing the campaign against Islamic State in Mosul by conducting airstrikes against the militants and assisting troops on the ground.

The Department of Defense has requested $1.269 billion in U.S. budget funds for 2018 to continue supporting Iraqi forces.

Without Mosul - by far the largest city to fall under militant control - Islamic State's dominion in Iraq will be reduced to mainly rural, desert areas west and south of the city where tens of thousands of people live.

It is almost exactly three years since the ultra-hardline group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed a "caliphate" spanning Syria and Iraq from the pulpit of the medieval Grand al-Nuri mosque.

The United Nations predicts it will cost more than $1 billion to repair basic infrastructure in Mosul. In some of the worst affected areas, almost no buildings appear to have escaped damage and Mosul's dense construction means the extent of the devastation might be underestimated, U.N. officials said.

The militants are expected to revert to insurgent tactics as they lose territory.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jul 2017 19:01

Iraqi PM meets forward troops in Mosul

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jul 2017 19:11

all that remains of Mosul after war is about to get over..

Iraqi PM in war room at Mosul

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jul 2017 22:17

Abdulla Hawez‏Verified account
@abdullahawez
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#Mosul liberated:
- 265 days;
- 100,000 ISF vs. 5000 ISIS;
- Iraq special forces lost 40% of their men;
- 80% of west Mosul destroyed

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jul 2017 22:18

#Iraqi PM walking in the left bank side of #Mosul, shaking hands with Iraqi citizen , excepted to decorate victory https://twitter.com/nasseratta5/status/ ... 9124615168

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 07:38

the 40% is probably killed+wounded

also the 100,000 ISoF is not true. the federal police US trained "golden CT div" is probably more like 15000 out of which a part would be in Mosul, many are in baghdad/karbala etc to wipe out sleeper cells and keep things under control, rest were iraqi army parts 3 divisions if I recall. there were also federal police CT. probably no more than 10,000 people active on the frontlines at any time, rest in perimeter security and clearing and securing taken areas. one div has since moved off to Tal afar fighting.

PMU protects the logistic lines a thin shaft down to qayarrah, then baiji-tikrit then baghdad. the western desert is still wide open and hawija pocket still full of daish on both sides of the shaft

casualties were high in the initial days of west mosul but tactics were adapted and as the ISIS grew weaker and their areas shrank, the frontage of active fighting also declined, so would casualties. almost all the CQB units were wearing BPJs and helmets.

so the jihadi fanboys can jerk off all they want, but their mates are dead and rotting corpses being eaten by flies and pigs and the iraqi flag is flying proudly today.

the golden division wears black dress- they broke the back of daish in Fallujah also

the iraqi federal police(a type of CRPF cobra) also attacked one side of mosul - they wear the blue camo

the regular iraqi army mostly wears sand or khaki camo - they were mainly in the east and north. eastern mosul was more open and hence suitable for regular army tactics incl tanks.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 07:43

so after years of war, the shia crescent now has the most battle seasoned armies of the arab world - hezbollah, syria, iraq, iran Irgc.

the sunni kabila has 2 well trained armies - turkiye (whose aims have diverged from GCC now) and TSP(who is way too slippery to get caught in monkey traps)

the remaining herculean work in Iraq
- clear up the Tal afar pocket
- clear up the Hawija pocket
- clear up the Anbar desert and retake Al Qaim
- crush the post-war insurgency in anbar , nineveh and salahaldin

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Jul 2017 07:49

Sounds like Operation BlueStar minus the extreme respect for buildings and troops going in without shoes etc. But in the end the terrorists are dead and the area cleared. Wonder how many civilians were extricated alive to justify incurring all this high cost - otherwise they could have just rolled an artillery barrage followed by mine-sweeping ropes and bulldozers.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 08:10

mosul had a 2 mil population and diameter of 16km - so not a fair comparison to bluestar. no 1000kg TNT laded SVIEDs either while 1000s of civilians no doubt died for various reasons incl airstrikes, even in the old city , many 1000s emerged starving but alive from basements and damaged houses. daish also shot 100s of ppl in the back while they tried to flee and these were mostly women, old people and kids.

600 pigs were killed in fighting at the Al nouri mosque alone.

UN had already setup huge camps outside the city to support the streams of people leaving the liberated but damaged areas.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?N ... WLpGtOGNt8

a few lakh people have returned to less damaged areas of eastern mosul.

western mosul is a ruin and will need a complete govt and UN supported rebuild. anything still standing will be structurally suspect.

its like chemo - killing the cancer extracts a huge toll on the host.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 08:18

video -- khan style syrian armour column in the desert
https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/sta ... 8408498176

they seem to be readying the kind of punch joe frazier uncorked against Mohd ali .... digging really deep and giving it all they have
round 15 is about to start .. there is even a salt and pepper hair don king to stand in for suleimani ji as the strategy "adviser"

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 08:20

Dan DeBusschere‏ @DanDeBusschere 3h3 hours ago
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Replying to @WithinSyriaBlog
I proposed this tactic before. Cross the desert south of the main highways. When ISIS exposes to oppose then use air power to crush.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 08:42

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pi ... ai-desert/

big isis offensive in the Sinai egypt, one of the pics looks like a reaper drone perhaps sent by us army from jordan to help the egyptians.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 13:11

Syrian Civil War Map‏ @CivilWarMap Jul 8
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YPG is planing to disarm and disband Quwwat al-Nukhbat after they fled positions in Old City of Raqqa 3 days ago.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 13:13

with the syrians 15km from sukhnah from arak side, i think the tigers will make their move soon from the north. isis is widely dispersed and a days moving and hunting only bags some 20 pigs, but risky to leave behind even 3 in a dugout....1 such fellow used a suicide truck to sneak behind lines near arak and killed 5 saa soldiers.

so the whole desert has to be swept of the roaches which takes time, manpower and resources.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Jul 2017 14:44

Many foreign fighters in Mosul fought with their children and wives side by side..wives shooting on & off and own children used as human shield

In Phillipines Dutrete was about to under take a secret meeting with IS fighters but backed off at last moment..more updates awaited.
Several IS fighters still holding tall buildings in Marawi.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Jul 2017 17:54

Polio has made a return in ME.
Polio virus has been isolated from children and water being served in conflict areas of ME>
Children reportedly suffered from fever followed by one lower limb paresis.
Virus belongs to same strain which causes once in a while outbreak in Afganistan-Pakistan area,
It is being assumed virus strain has been transported by IS fighters coming from Af-Pak area in ME.
After India eradicated polio it was present only in three countries..Afganistan being one of them.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 22:17

https://twitter.com/thearabsource/statu ... 5869898754

Syrians launch big attack on southfront fsa in sweida

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 22:22

Iraqi af bombs mayadeen next town from deir azzor

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/884130208932122624

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 22:25

A huge force seems to be marshalling deep in southern desert for a march on al bukamal perhaps to ring fence the isis into te syrian cauldron and split them moving into iraq

That khanish armour video could be a sign

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2017 22:32

Putin and trump may have struck some deal to let the assad govt take the west coast while khan rules the east coast of euphrates

Tillerson ji has toned down his anti rus posture after g20

As always pawns like fsa are always disposable for the bigger deals

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Jul 2017 07:38

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... rn-sweida/

Syrians take over 3000 sq km in sweida in 12 hrs from
Al tanf certified munnas

So quite clear us russi deal for al tanf project to be abandoned and usa will shift to eastern syria and rojava

rumours of a secret deal for sdf to help deir azzor

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Jul 2017 09:40

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 9088536576

Nato proxies from south being moved to ash shahdadi

Their main play would be to fight isis if they can but more to occupy the iraq border and block the pmu

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Jul 2017 15:14

video - people streaming out of the ruins of old mosul
https://twitter.com/BBassem7/status/884120235988574208

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Jul 2017 17:21

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... d-moments/

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Jul 2017 18:21

Syrian Monitor has said that IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said today it had information from top Islamic State group leaders confirming the death of the jihadist organisation's chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
(Syrian Obs directly recieves information from MI6 apparently)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Jul 2017 18:31

people are all deep in planning and moves for the post-ISIS landscape.

some diehard scorpions will carry out insurgency in remote regions, but they cannot ever take major cities again.

HTS Nusra is cleaning up ISIS sleeper cells to get the decks ready in Idlib for its upcoming cagefight with Turkiye pasand ahrar al sham and euphshield mercenaries.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 12 Jul 2017 01:40

So I'm a bit hazy on the details: if the US cuts off the two main highways linking Syria to Iraq (HW2 & HW4) then what happens? The US has already cutoff HW2 by seizing Al-Tanf, so the southern route is blocked. This leaves only the northern route currently. So if they airlift enough FSA to seize Deir Azzor, Al-Bukamal, Al-Mayadin or any other key point along the HW4 highway, this blocks the northern route also. Would that be enough to effectively cutoff Syria from Iran\Iraq? Does the US need to control the entire Syria-Iraq border? If the latter, that's a much bigger task obviously, and perhaps unrealistic.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Jul 2017 02:17

Question: Once Iraq recaptures most of Iraq, and SAA recaptures much of Syria, what is the point of US-backed Moderate Terrorists sitting in wedges along the Yoo-Fritiz? How are they going to survive? Berlin-type Airlift every day?

FROM THE TAXPAYERS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, TO THE GOAT-BUGGERING, CHILD-BEHEADING TERRORISTS OF HILLARY CLINTON"S FRIENDS?

The lovefest with Erdogan plus the KSA-Qatar festivities sort-of put the damper on the US-ISIS-ISRAEL-KSA-QATAR terror nexus, hain? Plus, I think Trump is beginning to look confident, and the US opposition is melting into ISIS-like irrelevance. They are down to

about emails sent inviting someone to meet a private US citizen for a chat in DC.

Once DT-Putin anti-terror alliance gets established in DC Spin enough for dumbass T-Partiers to understand it, I think KSA will be in no position to support the Yoo-Fritis terrorists. What then? where are the Moderate Terrorists going to find sanctuary? Arkansas?

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 12 Jul 2017 04:03

UlanBatori - I hope you're correct in believing that the Trump administration is abandoning the Syria project. You imply Trump's missile strikes were only to silence his domestic opposition (Democrats, US media, etc). If that's true then the aggressive moves with FSA airlifts, the air strikes on convoys and the shootdowns around "deconfliction zones" were also just incidental and not a prelude to something bigger. If your supposition is true, that bodes well for India and the non-Sunni world generally, as it would mean the US is abandoning the Saudis or at least not backing their projects any more. This would mean less US support for Pakistan as well.

But you forget the Jew factor. The Isreali lobby has always controlled US foreign policy, and they want Syria cutoff from Iran, which means the southern border must be seized. We'll know how this is going to play out soon enough. If the US moves FSA units to Deir Azzor, Al-Bukamal, Al-Mayadin or any of those other points along the Euphrates then it means they intend to cut off Syria from Iran. If you see that happening, then you can expect the US to bomb the SAA in that area again, or shoot down more planes.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Jul 2017 05:49

Kananji, I too have been trying to make some sense of this horrible genocidal atrocity for the past 5 years. Let's take it logically:

1. Would u agree that the US-backed terrorists were on the verge of taking over Damascus, but then in the past 6 months since the vodka bottles flew in, they have had their asses kicked all over the place?
2. The map of Syria has steadily changed, from nearly all "rebel freedom fighter" to "ISIS" to now mostly SAA?

3. The above two facts are NOT AT ALL KNOWN to Joe 6-pack and Lou-Ellen SugarWaterBun. This poses a HUGE problem for GOTUS. It's like the Paki Govt in 2002: Put urself in their shoes: How do u tell ur ppl that u have lost ur golas? That you have spent $$$$BBB of taxpayer money, and numerous American lives, (a) supporting murderous Islamist terrorists and (b) said terrorists have now been crushed by the Rooskies in a perfectly legitimate, UN-approved ass-kicking while you kept backing the wrong puppets? That there are hardly any puppets left at the end of ur string?

4. So this explains US actions. They try to be SEEN as not completely abandoning their puppets. The long line with ~~Batista Regime in Cuba~~ The ~~South Vietnam Regime~~ The ~~Noriega Regime~~ The ~~Shah of Iran~~ The ~~Nicaraguan Contras~~ ~~Pinochet of Chile~~ ~~Saakashvili of Georgia~~ ...

Now they are faced with several goon tribes/gangs that are facing eradication when the SAA comes rolling in. Whatever I may think of Assad, he ain't no pussycat, he will show no more mercy to the FSA etc when this is over. The US is caught in the standard South Vietnam trap, except there is no US Embassy rooftop to evacuate via helicopter and C-5. So... the US draws lines in the sand, and when the SAA probes those, they hit them. Look behind the pompous declarations, there is utter desperation.

My take is that Putin will try to keep SAA ambitions in check to allow the US as decent a withdrawal as possible, in exchange for a non-nonsense, complete withdrawal. From the US SDOTUS pov, they are desperate to retain some fig-leaf of influence and credibility in the whole ME. What's it down to? Incirlik is gone, Qatar and KSA and Bahrein are all shaky, Iraq is lost. Libya is getting lost, now they are beginning to have to fight for Egypt.

All said and done, the US is a massive NBG-armed superpower with the capacity to wipe out humanity 1000 times over. You can't piss off the US beyond a point, and the US can't afford to be **SEEN*** to be ROUTED, although defeat is written on the wall.
At some point, CNN is going to realize that there is no pony under the big dung-heap of RussiaGate etc. Then they WILL turn around and start sneering at how Putin has defeated Trump in Syria and Iraq. This is the bigger writing on the wall. It is going to stun the T-Party, Joe 6-pack and PeggySue MintJulep.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Jul 2017 07:17

>>The US has already cutoff HW2 by seizing Al-Tanf, so the southern route is blocked.

I have already told you that is not cutoff. it was bypassed and a path built through the desert 50km east to link up with a iraqi road parallel to the border, one end goes to al bukamal and one end goes al rutba behind the al tanf on iraqi side. the iraqi side of al tanf(which is 2km inside syria) is in Baghdads hands, isis remnants have been chased off.

the other main highways via al bukamal and a road from east to deir azzor are presently in ISIS control.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Jul 2017 07:22

>>So if they airlift enough FSA to seize Deir Azzor, Al-Bukamal, Al-Mayadin or any other key point along the HW4 highway,

take a look at a proper map. the entire 200km stretch from raqqa to iraqi border along the euphrates is thickly settled with a chain of villages and towns incl some bigger ones like madan, mayadin, dez, al bukamal. just airlifting 1000 FSA and waving the stars and stripes is not going to help even with 1 town, let alone this ISIS heartland....a huge operation would be needed to make any impression.

raqqa is a month old now and hardly any capture of the populated sections of the town and SDF is taking losses - the deaths of 3 western volunteers in ypg were announced yesterday. neither the FSA or YPG will go for human wave tactics to please massa and finish it fast, it just is not worth it for them.

there are no quick checkmate moves here. its a slog from here on as ISIS will fight its last fights.

the western reaches of anbar and nineveh is still in ISIS hands and probably hosts powerful kabila gangs who are gathering resources for the next round. one such raiding party took out a iraqi border post recently

see video here https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/vi ... rop-bombs/