Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 10 Jul 2017 22:20

Wasn't this entire thing a re-monetisation and not a de-monetization. Back in the day when SEBI demonetized all the paper share certificates,
I had to take my paper certificates in and I got a digital account where it was deposited. No paper was given back. That was a real demonetization.

Traveling through India recently almost all transactions are in cash. Just slightly different looking.
Even my hotel bills were 50-50 cash vs card. And the card was only for convenience. Taxi all payments were cash.
Electric bills were cash.

One good thing with the new cash is plenty of small change seems available, and the notes seem to hold up to handling a lot better than old ones.
Hopefully the change availability remains high.

One thing I have done is convert all my hard cash and accounts to US dollar. I won't be holding rupee/rupay long term anymore.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 10 Jul 2017 22:52

INR will appreciate back to 50 or thereabouts. you should have held out longer.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 10 Jul 2017 23:02

Yah! I held out as long as I could, some of it unplanned to wait until all the dust and fire had settled. And in March I thought for sure it would drop below 60 but in April there didn't seem much chance so I closed all my rupee stuff. Esp. as my Dad is not here anymore to help me with this stuff.

jayasimha · Post by **jayasimha** » 11 Jul 2017 10:42

https://www.cleanmoney.gov.in/

Nowadays lot of websites are created by Gov of India.

Posting for records.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Jul 2017 08:49

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 12 Jul 2017 19:25

http://www.hindustantimes.com/business- ... DCVlO.html
RBI governor Urijit Patel on Wednesday told a parliamentary committee that the scrapped notes deposited after demonetisation were still being counted.

Patel gave this information at a meeting of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance when a member specifically asked him to give details of the value of the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes which were allowed to be exchanged till December 30.

He said the total money in circulation in the country now was Rs 15.4 lakh crore against Rs 17.7 lakh crore at the time of demonetisation in November last year, according to sources.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Jul 2017 01:27

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 558_1.html

Lack of adequate machines and related infra has delayed the counting of demonetised currency that has come back into the system, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel is learnt to have told a parliamentary panel on Wednesday.

During the meeting that lasted more than three hours, Urjit Patel, according to sources said that the central bank is yet to arrive at the final figure since counting was still in progress.
..
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, a member of the panel, did not ask the governor any question. He had bailed him out at a previous meeting of the panel.
..

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 13 Jul 2017 15:00

Sad excuse. They can easily get mega counting machines from Germany and Amreeka. Some IIM MBA duffer would have run rough calculations and convinced the committee of using el cheapo machines to count which caused the delays.

Being the premier financial pillar of India, behaving like a cheap a$$ baniya will not cut it. If these are the most 'brilliant' minds and they come up with such pathetic excuses what should the public feel about their competence ?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 13 Jul 2017 16:01

asgkhan wrote:Sad excuse. They can easily get mega counting machines from Germany and Amreeka. Some IIM MBA duffer would have run rough calculations and convinced the committee of using el cheapo machines to count which caused the delays.

Being the premier financial pillar of India, behaving like a cheap a$$ baniya will not cut it. If these are the most 'brilliant' minds and they come up with such pathetic excuses what should the public feel about their competence ?

There is a process that is to be followed for counting and checking the notes. It is a time-consuming one.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Jul 2017 16:22

It is not just your average counting machine in schools and shops - I think they have one that records serial number as well

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Jul 2017 18:43

RBI needing longer time means that RBI/GOI were surprised by the quantity of currency returned and may want to tally the returns against the RBI/Mint registers. So then it becomes more than a simple counting exercise and one can reasonably expect it to take a lot of time.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 13 Jul 2017 20:25

Deleted. Unnecessary speculation.

Sorry

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 13 Jul 2017 20:31

Gus wrote:It is not just your average counting machine in schools and shops - I think they have one that records serial number as well

I posted the tender and specs earlier. There are probably only five to eight of those machines and it would explain the recount. Expect them to be done by Sep, in time for another round of demo, post introduction of Rs 200 notes.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Jul 2017 20:31

that is a popular CT with no shred of evidence as yet. (the notes printed off books)

It is not just a counting and fake note checking exercise..the tallying and cross checking and analytics is probably what takes time.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Jul 2017 21:47

Kakkaji wrote:Maybe more currency was returned than was officially on RBI's books. So now they have to identify the 'surplus' and trace its source?

Just a SWAG on my part.

Please be careful with saying such things. As Gus says, it has been rehashed, and frankly all that came of it was posters being warned for discrediting institutions with mindless CTs.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 13 Jul 2017 22:25

To not give away surprise, I would assume that the lot of hardware and software probably wasn't kept ready beforehand. There should also be cross checking of cross checking along with proper legal people involved to make sure that any evidence for potential court cases is kosher. I thought about how the actual processes would work out back in January when this topic was hot and each time to me even couple of years were not enough depending upon how much of the trust I put into the existing system and chain of command all the way to bank clerk.

jayasimha · Post by **jayasimha** » 14 Jul 2017 17:34

Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Finance
14-July-2017 16:18 IST
Income Tax Department pushes additional cases of High Cash Deposits in Second Phase of Operation Clean Money.

The Income Tax Department (ITD) has used information received under the Statement of Financial Transactions (SFT) to identify 5.56 lakh new persons in the second phase of “Operation Clean Money” (OCM). These are persons whose tax profiles were found to be inconsistent with the cash deposits made by them during the demonetization period. Another 1.04 lakh persons who did not disclose all bank accounts during e-verification in the first phase of OCM have also been identified. In the first phase, 17.92 Lakh persons had been identified for e-verification of large cash deposits, of which 9.72 Lakh people had submitted online response.

The information in respect of the cases and accounts identified has been made available in the e-filing window of the PAN holder at the portal https://incometaxindiaefiling.gov.in. The PAN holder can view the information using the link “Cash Transactions 2016” under “Compliance” section of the portal. The taxpayer will be able to submit online explanation without any need to visit Income Tax office. All identified persons are being informed through Email and SMS for submitting response online.

The following information has been communicated to promote voluntary compliance:

· Details of cash deposited in bank accounts aggregating to 2 lakh or more is required to be given in the Income Tax Return (ITR). This information will be matched with the information in possession of the Income tax Department.
· The taxpayer should ensure that ITR is compliant with amount deposited in bank accounts during the period of demonetization and while computing income, the amounts so deposited are considered/ taken into account while paying taxes.
· Cash deposits made in the above period may thus be fully and truly disclosed in the ITR.

The Portal of Operation Clean Money (https://www.cleanmoney.gov.in) launched on 16th May 2017 has the following features:

· Providing comprehensive information at one place consisting of Step by Step Guides, Frequently asked Questions, User Guides, Quick Reference Guides and Training Toolkits related to verification process and other issues.
· Enabling Citizen Engagement for creating a tax compliant society where every Indian takes pride in paying taxes. Citizens would be able to support the operation clean money by taking pledge (इमानदारी का उत्सव), contribute by engaging and educating fellow citizens (जन भागीदारी), and share their experiences and provide feedback (सुखद अनुभव).
· Enabling Transparent Tax Administration by sharing status reports (including sanitized cases and explanation of verification issues) and thematic analysis reports (e.g. taxpayer segment analysis of cash deposit data).
*****

DSM/SBS/KA

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 18 Jul 2017 09:51

Govt stays firm, refuses to reopen note swap window

........the Centre on Monday firmly said that no new opportunity would be given for the exchange of the outlawed currency as it could be misused.Centre on Monday firmly said that no new opportunity would be given for the exchange of the outlawed currency as it could be misused.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Jul 2017 11:00

jayasimha wrote: The taxpayer will be able to submit online explanation without any need to visit Income Tax office. All identified persons are being informed through Email and SMS for submitting response online.

The following information has been communicated to promote voluntary compliance:

· Details of cash deposited in bank accounts aggregating to 2 lakh or more is required to be given in the Income Tax Return (ITR). This information will be matched with the information in possession of the Income tax Department.
· The taxpayer should ensure that ITR is compliant with amount deposited in bank accounts during the period of demonetization and while computing income, the amounts so deposited are considered/ taken into account while paying taxes.
· Cash deposits made in the above period may thus be fully and truly disclosed in the ITR.

There are still 7 lakh odd high deposit individuals yet to respond. They will probably respond after filing their ITR. Will the tax dept match the ITRs of all the 17 lakh account holders (or those who responded) with previous years' returns so that black money is not being claimed as income for the current year. My guess is govt will be lenient and let it slide.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 26 Jul 2017 21:43

As expected, they are slowing down supply of Rs 2000 in the market. They have stopped printing Rs 2000 notes now. Whether its temporary to make way for printing of Rs 200 notes, or permanent has to be seen.

RBI stops printing Rs 2000 notes, focus turns to new Rs 200 notes

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stopped printing Rs 2000 notes about five months ago and is unlikely to print more in the current financial year, said people aware of the development. The central bank, however, has stepped up the printing of other denominations, including new Rs 200 notes, the people added on condition of anonymity.
...
...
“Most of the printing that’s being done, about 90% is only Rs 500 notes. Nearly 14 billion pieces of new Rs 500 notes have been printed so far,” this person said.
...
“The cash crunch which existed till two months ago has now eased with RBI increasing supply of Rs 500 notes over the last 40 days,” said Neeraj Vyas, deputy managing director, State Bank of India (SBI). “But we have also seen a sharp drop in the supply of Rs 2000 notes during this period.”
...

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 27 Jul 2017 01:15

rahulm wrote:Govt stays firm, refuses to reopen note swap window

........the Centre on Monday firmly said that no new opportunity would be given for the exchange of the outlawed currency as it could be misused.Centre on Monday firmly said that no new opportunity would be given for the exchange of the outlawed currency as it could be misused.

Excellent, next time it will make people follow law, when it is announced. rather than wait for it to be diluted later on.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 27 Jul 2017 01:17

Another ban this time of Rs 2000 would encourage people not to hoard cash. This habit will die slowly, but shock treatment on a regular basis will get rid of this evil.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 27 Jul 2017 11:39

Cash is still king. For all the talk of cashless, India has made little progress. The only way to push cashless is to stop the use of large denomination notes. Get rid of 2000 to start with. Then get rid of 500 and 100. People will start using cashless for large transactions and then for smaller ones.

I bought a 2 wheeler recently and the dealer insisted on cash. This even though they can accept card payments. Wonder why.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 27 Jul 2017 12:23

They dont want to pay the card companies, RuPay machine charges are low, but they are hard to come by

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 27 Jul 2017 22:37

JohnTitor wrote:Cash is still king. For all the talk of cashless, India has made little progress. The only way to push cashless is to stop the use of large denomination notes. Get rid of 2000 to start with. Then get rid of 500 and 100. People will start using cashless for large transactions and then for smaller ones.

I bought a 2 wheeler recently and the dealer insisted on cash. This even though they can accept card payments. Wonder why.

Could have easily paid using NEFT/RTGS into their bank account... I think the dealer is simply trying to bypass taxation.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 28 Jul 2017 02:27

Impact of demonetization on terrorism

ashbhee · Post by **ashbhee** » 30 Jul 2017 01:45

Why is RBI not introducing plastic / polymer currency in a big way? This is really tragic. Demonetisation was a golden opportunity to do so. Worldover plastic currency is being used to combat counterfeiters , for e.g. Canada.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om3l4ipUdtU

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Aug 2017 01:45

Swarajya article:
https://swarajyamag.com/economy/early-t ... ar-on-cash
Early Trends Suggest India Has Won Its War On Cash

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley tabled the second part of Economic Survey 2016-17 in Parliament today (11 August),......has struck a chord of caution by reserving a definitive judgment for the future. “A definitive judgment can only be passed if current levels of cash relative to GDP persist over time but so far, reliance on cash appears to have declined sharply."

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 12 Aug 2017 03:14

₹2.8-4.3 lakh cr of excess deposits entered banking system during demonetisation

MUMBAI, AUGUST 11:
Excess deposits in the range of ₹2.8-4.3 lakh crore accrued to the banking system during the demonetisation period, with unusual cash deposits in specific accounts, which were usually less active, estimated to be in the range of ₹1.6-1.7 lakh crore, according to a study conducted by Reserve Bank of India staff.

7 types of accounts
The paper said a significant amount of SBNs flowed into seven special types of accounts — basic savings bank deposit accounts; PMJDY accounts; Kisan Credit Card; dormant or inoperative accounts; co-operative bank accounts with scheduled commercial banks (SCBs); bullion trader/jewellers’ accounts; and loan accounts.

In scenario 1, the estimated cash deposits in the aforementioned accounts during November-December 2016 with 52 banks were ₹4,35,800 crore. Cash deposits in these accounts during September-October 2016 were ₹2,70,100 crore. Thus, the variation of ₹1,65,700 crore can be assumed to be the increase in cash deposits under these accounts due to demonetisation in the absence of any noticeable activity in such accounts during normal times.

In scenario 2 (based on year-on-year growth of aggregate cash deposits), the estimated cash deposits in seven types of accounts with 52 banks were ₹4,35,800 crore during November-December 2016 and ₹3,06,500 crore during November-December 2015.

Average y-o-y growth of net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals) of all types of accounts of SCBs during November-December for last five years was (-)9.2 per cent.

In the above scenario, the estimated trend of cash deposits in these accounts during November-December 2016 is ₹2,78,300 crore. Thus, excess cash deposits during November-December 2016 work out to ₹1,57,500 crore.

Given the unusual cash deposits in specific accounts, which are usually less active, the authorities have opened investigations on the source of funds that flowed into the accounts.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 12 Aug 2017 03:32

There are reports that a Rs 200 note will be released for circulation this week. I hope this note is printed by the Govt in huge quantities, with the intent to replace the Rs 2,000 notes that are in circulation.

With the experience of long lines the last time, I don't think this Govt will go for abrupt demonetization again anytime soon. The Rs 2,000 note can be gradually withdrawn from circulation by replacing every such note that is deposited in any bank, with 10 notes of Rs 200. After six moths of doing this, the only Rs 2,000 notes that will be left in circulation will be the ones with hoarders, and they can be demonetized overnight like the last time.

The same strategy can be used with Rs 500 notes a couple of years down the line.

For legitimate cash needs for small transactions, and for the poor, a highest note denomination of Rs 200 is sufficient. Just ensure their adequate supply esp in rural areas. Rest of transactions should be cashless.

I think the Govt should print the new Rs 100 and Rs 50 notes in plastic, and let those become the longest and most circulated ones.

JMHO.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 12 Aug 2017 06:58

I think a final push to become a cashless economy should be made in next 2 years. I found even ordinary folks (a Dosa thela stall) had access to a bank account and could make and receive payments via BHIM. No need to continue dependence on cash. China is perhaps 5-6 years ahead of India in making a transition to cashless economy with ALIPAY and WeChat enabling. Add the BHIM APP to chat engines such as WhatsApp and we are well on our way.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 12 Aug 2017 08:57

ANALYSIS: As note ban costs RBI dearly, surplus to govt may slump

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Aug 2017 00:15

Dumal wrote:
Austin wrote:Other then the dead 80 odd people there is not much hope demonitisation has given which looking back was a political decision , If you are on the street you know you are back to square one , Neither the politician or the builder/business lobby lost their black money they made in into white with help of bankers , few who lost will make up for it for most the common man suffered in the bargain.
Did 80 odd people die, who but for demonetization, would have been alive? Really. I don't remember any such specific clear-cut cases. I do remember within the just the first 10-20 days the usual suspects starting with Kejriwal gang were mouthing 100 dead, 120 dead etc and having arguments with reporters not toeing their line. After November, though, there was almost no more of those claims.

Not a single naya paisa came from any major political parties when they have tons of it , quietly these are made white with help from RBI , who suffered the most the common man neither any industrialist ever got caught with black money you think they don't have any ?

Only the common man suffered in this exercise , did any politician or industrialist died standing in huge queue ?

This was an exercise to save the few at the cost of many

vnms · Post by **vnms** » 15 Aug 2017 08:00

Austin wrote: Not a single naya paisa came from any major political parties when they have tons of it , quietly these are made white with help from RBI , who suffered the most the common man neither any industrialist ever got caught with black money you think they don't have any ?

Only the common man suffered in this exercise , did any politician or industrialist died standing in huge queue

I must have missed the memo on this. So, how would RBI help these politicians convert black to white?

Where exactly do these political parties keep their cash? At the party office?

Last time I checked, common man was happy with this. I guess your definition of the common man must be different from what the rest of the nation thinks.

The only people, that I seen, opposed to DeMo are ones that either avoided paying taxes or earned money illegally.

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 15 Aug 2017 08:22

At ground level, where I come from, local NCP/Congress politicians got hit badly with demonetization and it resulted in very poor show at the local panchayat, sugar mill and ZP elections. Local corporate banks tried their best to help politicians but from what I hear that the RBI knew about it and had put stricture in a way that funds were not available when needed for the elections. My immediate family member is involved in arranging crowd for election/andolan rallies (500 Rs and Biryani and desi quarter per head count plus transport). Guess what no business this year and cursing Modi left right and centre. Tell you that evil Modi is so bad for so many good business options from past!

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 15 Aug 2017 18:51

I have heard stories about lot of cash entering cooperative banks. While RBI did not accept cash from cooperative banks for a long time. These banks have been accused of helping powerful money bags. In recent past that was permitted resulting in friendly relations between Uddhav and DF. Many people suggesting how PM has buckled under pressure, etc.

The other side of the story is that there are numerous normal account holders in these banks. The bank's operations are affected which affect common people as well.

Somebody who knows more details can shed more light on this topic.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 15 Aug 2017 20:40

Austin wrote:
Dumal wrote:
Did 80 odd people die, who but for demonetization, would have been alive? Really. I don't remember any such specific clear-cut cases. I do remember within the just the first 10-20 days the usual suspects starting with Kejriwal gang were mouthing 100 dead, 120 dead etc and having arguments with reporters not toeing their line. After November, though, there was almost no more of those claims.
Not a single naya paisa came from any major political parties when they have tons of it , quietly these are made white with help from RBI , who suffered the most the common man neither any industrialist ever got caught with black money you think they don't have any ?

Only the common man suffered in this exercise , did any politician or industrialist died standing in huge queue ?

This was an exercise to save the few at the cost of many

Because common man was standing for the politicians, corrupt and criminals to convert the black into white. how do you thing hoards got converted from black to white, yes they employed severals means, jan dan yogana, cooperative bank, contact and nepotism in banks, Mango man and political workers etc. what did you expect, the rich elite and criminal politicians to be standing in queue for converting cash.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 15 Aug 2017 20:49

prahaar wrote:I have heard stories about lot of cash entering cooperative banks. While RBI did not accept cash from cooperative banks for a long time. These banks have been accused of helping powerful money bags. In recent past that was permitted resulting in friendly relations between Uddhav and DF. Many people suggesting how PM has buckled under pressure, etc.

The other side of the story is that there are numerous normal account holders in these banks. The bank's operations are affected which affect common people as well.

Somebody who knows more details can shed more light on this topic.

Most sugar coop barons also own a bank. Even the vegetable wholesalers have their own. All incomes are non taxable so why would they worry even a bit? Even what you and I consider black was and is bleached sulphurfree by the same coops. Pawarful people are smarter and also know how to roll internationally without local hasanalis support. Look up Dynamix and imagine how many such are there in MH. Deshmukh at one time was reputed to take one apt per complex from big builders in Navi Mumbai. Bribe givers would pay extra sums to help adjust black white margins, as required to maintain cash flow.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 15 Aug 2017 22:08

Marten wrote:
prahaar wrote:I have heard stories about lot of cash entering cooperative banks. While RBI did not accept cash from cooperative banks for a long time. These banks have been accused of helping powerful money bags. In recent past that was permitted resulting in friendly relations between Uddhav and DF. Many people suggesting how PM has buckled under pressure, etc.

The other side of the story is that there are numerous normal account holders in these banks. The bank's operations are affected which affect common people as well.

Somebody who knows more details can shed more light on this topic.
Most sugar coop barons also own a bank. Even the vegetable wholesalers have their own. All incomes are non taxable so why would they worry even a bit? Even what you and I consider black was and is bleached sulphurfree by the same coops. Pawarful people are smarter and also know how to roll internationally without local hasanalis support. Look up Dynamix and imagine how many such are there in MH. Deshmukh at one time was reputed to take one apt per complex from big builders in Navi Mumbai. Bribe givers would pay extra sums to help adjust black white margins, as required to maintain cash flow.

True, many cooperative banks are owned by wholesalers and sugarmills, and they channel and provide loans to the politicians, even the owners thenselves are politicians or with political leaning and supporters.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 16 Aug 2017 17:07

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 086235.cms

Cracking down on black money, scrutiny of shell firms stepped up

Reuters | Updated: Aug 16, 2017, 04:41 PM IST

Last month, the authorities ordered nearly 2 lakh shell companies to be shut down, and the aide said the government is examining hundreds of thousands more.
...
A high-level task force leading the investigation has found hundreds of shell companies are registered in a few buildings in the eastern city of Kolkata, according to the government note reviewed by Reuters.
More than 400 companies listed their address in a dimly-lit colonial-era building at 9/12 Lalbazaar Street.
...
In its warren of offices were firms offering services such as earthmoving equipment, infrastructure financing, information technology consultants and many others which had office space the size of cubicles.
Many were locked, with their padlocks coated in dust. Others were grimy residential quarters with laundry hanging from the windows.
Data separately provided by Tofler, a company information database service, identified nearly 3,000 companies in two offices in the building. Some were named after flowers.
...
"The Kolkata industry does the work of obfuscating money trails. Kolkata companies are a huge network that take your money from one end and bring it out the other," said the inspector,
...
The Serious Fraud Investigation Office is creating a database of shell companies, and has so far identified 1,14,269 as front firms.