Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Jul 2017 06:36

Spurred on by smooth GST roll-out, FPIs pump in Rs 11,000 cr in July so far

Foreign investors have pumped in nearly Rs 11,000 crore in the capital markets in the first two weeks of this month, enthused by the trouble-free rollout of GST and stimulating Indian economy.

The latest inflow comes following a net infusion of over Rs 1.62 lakh crore in the previous five months (February-June) on several factors. Prior to that, such investors had pulled out over Rs 3,496 crore from debt markets in January.

According to latest depository data, FPIs invested a net Rs 498 crore in equities during July 3-14, while they poured Rs 10,405 crore in the debt markets during the period under review, translating into a net inflow of Rs 10,903 crore (USD 1.7 billion).

With the latest inflow, total investment in capital markets (equity and debt) has reached Rs 1.6 lakh crore (over USD 24 billion) this year.

Businesses can upload sale, purchase invoices on GSTN portal from July 24

Businesses can start uploading their sale and purchase invoices generated post July 1 on the GSTN portal from July 24, a top company official said today.

The Goods and Services Tax has kicked in from July 1 and so far, the GST Network, the company handling the IT backbone for new tax regime, has been facilitating registration of businesses.

"We plan to launch the invoice upload utility on the portal on July 24 so that businesses can come forward and start uploading the invoices on a daily or weekly basis to avoid month-end rush," GSTN Chairman Navin Kumar told PTI.

Rs 8,00,000 cr NPAs may face bankruptcy proceedings by Mar 2019: Assocham

Emboldened by the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, the RBI is expected to push for resolution bad loans worth around Rs 8 lakh crore by March 2019, a move that could bring down the NPAs and improve the financial health of banks, a study by Assocham said.

"So, it should be safe to assume that the non-performing assets (NPAs) mess would largely be resolved by the first quarter of financial year 2019-20," Assocham study titled 'NPAs Resolution: Light at the end of tunnel by March 2019' said.

This would be helped by a combination of several factors - turnaround in the economic cycle and some resolute steps by the government and the Reserve Bank of India to fix the issue, it said.

Although entire NPAs could be put on the altar of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) resolution mechanism, it has to be seen how much and how fast they actually goes out from the balance sheets of banks which at this point of time seem very stressed, it said.

It is no secret that NPAs are a big drain on the financial health of banks especially public sector banks (PSBs).

For example, 27 PSBs collectively made an operating profit of Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2016-17, but after allowing for the provisioning for bad loans, among others, net operating profit slipped to a paltry Rs 574 crore.

If balance sheet numbers are anything to go by, it simply brings home the fact that banks have no capacity to do fresh corporate lending that is necessary for pushing subdued private sector investment, the study said.

Statsguru: Rural India's distress conundrum
PDF
Never seen something like this before from Chinese media:
Be calm, strategise to take on Indian mfg sector: Chinese media tells China

India is receiving a "massive influx" of foreign investments which will greatly enhance its ability to develop the manufacturing sector and China should "keep calm" and start working on a more effective growth strategy for the new era, a state-run newspaper said today.

"This massive influx of investment by foreign manufacturers is of great significance for India's economy, employment and industrial development," an article in the Global Times said.

"China should be calm seeing India's rise. To cope with competition from India, China could start working on a more effective growth strategy for the new era now," it said.

"If in the past India lacked capital, a developed manufacturing sector and skilled manufacturing workers, the foreign manufacturing inflow is now helping India address the problem, backing up the government's 'Make in India' initiative," it said.

The influx of foreign manufacturers is addressing some of India's weaknesses and enhancing its manufacturing ability, with Chinese companies also playing an important role in the process, according to the article.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 17 Jul 2017 10:57

Infrastructure upgrade for Pune: City has planned a Rs 75000 cr revamp

investments of Rs 65,000 crore lined up over the next five to six years on the construction of a new airport, a new Metro link, and a Ring Road, among other projects. Taken together with the Rs10,000 crore that has been committed for water, sewerage and Smart City projects, they have the potential to upgrade Pune’s infrastructure to the next level.(hopefully higher than the Pune river water levels.)

Chhatrapati Sambhaji Raje International Airport at Purandar would start after a nod from the Centre.

with

Land acquisition for the purpose has started and if the 1,200 hectares needed are handed over on time, MADC could build the airport by 2019-20, a senior official says.

too many variables not locked down means this airport won't happen anytime soon

Till the new airport comes up, the growing air traffic needs are to be met by upgrading the existing airport. While in Pune recently, Minister of State for Civil Aviation Jayant Sinha had said, “ With this expansion, the airport will be able to hand 8-10 million passengers per annum from the present 6.5 million.”

How? The present airport is a defence airport and is 'airforce locked'. At current levels it is a traffic and parking mess and there is no available land to expand unless the clever PMRDA acquires (enchroaches via 7/14 extract modifications through the village Tehsildar) Air Force land.

Some of this sounds like 'garam hawa ' after vada pau and 'misal sample'

However, it is pleasing to know that they have decided and named the airport even before its approved. That's good going and the correct priority.'Airport kabh aur kahan banega malum nahi lekin naamkaran to ho gaya'. Refreshing.

They should plan and fund a airport express train service from the outset. Purandar is about 40 kms away. We build these brand spanking new airports and then spend precious time getting to and from these 'TFTA islands' through Gram Panchayat standard traffic, infra or both.

Whatever said and done about Delhi, airport connectivity is fantastic and delays the paharganj/NDLS shock and mess by about 30 minutes.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 17 Jul 2017 11:11

Sensible advice from NITI. Hope it fructifies.

Panagariya panel suggests redefining formal workforce (Mint)

New Delhi: Joining the jobs discourse, a high-level government panel has hinted that employment generation numbers may have been under estimated and has suggested that the definition of formal workforce be redrawn.

A government task force headed by Niti Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya has suggested adopting a “pragmatic definition” of formal workers and recommended that workers covered under private insurance or pension, those subjected to tax deduction at source (TDS) and those working in companies excluded from the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) should be considered for counting of jobs.

India lacks accurate jobs data and the lack of jobs has been a prickly issue for successive governments.

The task force, which was set up in May, has now recommended that at least for the purpose of counting, people covered under one of the following be considered as formal workers:

* Workers covered under the Employees’ State Insurance Act,1948

* Workers covered under Employees’ Provident Funds and Miscellaneous Provision Act, 1952 (or other similar social security scheme)

* Government and other public sector employees

* Workers having coverage under private insurance or pension schemes or provident funds

* Workers subject to tax deduction at source on their income through submission of Form 16 or similar Income Tax form.

“The Task Force is of the view that, in the Indian context, where written contracts are not common and nearly three-fourths of employment is in enterprises with less than ten workers, the definition of a formal worker based on enrolment in provident funds, medical insurance or pension schemes represents a reasonable compromise,” said the report.

The panel also suggested that the government can tap GSTN for getting a sense of the jobs being created both in the services and manufacturing sectors, news agency PTI first reported on Friday.

It suggested that companies or establishments excluded from GSTN because of their nature of service or low turnover should be surveyed annually to get a picture of the jobs being created. Such annual surveys should include all enterprises in health and education sectors, and those with turnover less than Rs2 million in other sectors.

India faces the challenge of creating jobs for a predominantly young population. According to credit rating firm Crisil, around 18 million people enter the workforce every year. The number of jobs created is far lower; between 2011-12 and 2015-16, India created 3.65 million jobs a year, according to industry lobby group Confederation of Indian Industry.

The task force said the redefinition of formal workers, if officially adopted, would have implications for existing rules and would require amendments to the relevant Acts.

Currently, India does not have a fixed definition of formal workers, underlined the Panagariya panel. Consequently, various definitions have been applied. A commonly used definition accepts only regular workers in enterprises registered under the Factories Act, 1948 as formal workers. The workers are called “organized” workers by NSSO instead of formal workers. Under this definition, all workers in service sectors are classified as informal or unorganized workers, the task force noted.

An alternative definition classifies all workers in enterprises with 10 or more workers and all government workers as formal workers. This definition also uses the term “organized workers” instead of “formal workers”. Yet another definition classifies workers as formal, provided they have a contract regardless of the size of the enterprise in which they work.

“All these definitions are highly restrictive and exclude many workers who have decent and steady jobs but either do not work in large enough enterprises or do not have written contracts. After considering various alternatives, the task force concluded that it was desirable to adopt a new, more pragmatic definition of formal workers.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 17 Jul 2017 16:16

Essar Steel loses the case in Gujarat High Court.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 631228.cms
It is another matter that the High Court should never have entertained the plea in the first place.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 17 Jul 2017 22:12

12 companies currently under bankruptcy proceedings.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 Jul 2017 19:38

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/business ... ariya.html

United Nations: India's GDP could rise to about USD 8 trillion over the next 15 years if the country registers an economic growth of 8 per cent annually and come very close to eliminating abject poverty entirely, NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has said.

He said with that level of economic growth, living standards and amenities that are taken for granted in the west will become accessible to a very large part of the population in India in the coming 15 years.

"Today, the Indian economy is among the major economies, the fastest growing economy, it has now left China behind. It grew in real dollars in the last 15 years ending 2016-17 (at) about 9 per cent," Panagariya said here.

"Once we correct for the exchange rate (changes), in real dollars India's growth rate in the last 15 years has been about 9 per cent," he said at an interactive multi-stakeholder panel hosted by India's Permanent Mission to the UN, the NITI Aayog and think-tank Research and Information System for Developing Countries on Monday.

He added that if one were to "make a very conservative assumption that over the coming 15 years, India would grow eight per cent, (the country's) GDP would rise from 2.3 trillion dollars today to close to about USD 8 trillion," with an average income of over USD 5,000.

"At that level of income it is not simply that we will be very close to eliminating abject poverty entirely but a large part of the population will be very prosperous," he said, at the event titled 'Transforming India: Eradicating Poverty, Promoting Prosperity'.

Participating in the panel along with Panagariya were Columbia University Professor and eminent economist Jagdish Bhagwati, India's former Permanent Representative to the UN and Chairperson of think-tank Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS) Hardeep Singh Puri, Chief Statistician of India TCA Anant and renowned actor Anupam Kher.

"I really think that as you go forward, there is a major transformation waiting to happen in the lives of about 1.3 billion - 1.5 billion people by 2030. That will mean that much greater prosperity for the entire world," he said.

Panagariya noted that "unfortunately" from 2004 to 2014, reforms in the country came to a standstill. "Mistakes particularly during 2009 to 2014 actually ended up denting very badly India's growth process with the growth rate declining from about 8.3 per cent to about six per cent during 2012-13 and 2013-14," he added.

Panagariya added that currently the Indian economy is on a much more stable path. There are some of the "legacy issues" such as the non-performing assets of the banks and they are being tackled by the government, he said adding that inflation is down to below two per cent and the government has systematically cut the fiscal deficits.

Listing the "big-item and big ticket reforms" such as the Goods and Services Tax, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act and the Aadhar Act implemented by the government, Panagariya said the benefits of those reforms are just beginning to happen.

He termed the Goods and Services Tax as a very hard fought reform that required not only a constitutional amendment but several legislations and approval of all 29 states of India.

On the Sustainable Development Goals, Panagariya said India itself has had a major influence on the 17 ambitious global goals and "most of the SDGs mirror India's own national policies", including the Food Security Act, housing for all, Clean India campaign, National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, programme for the girl child. Panagariya further said that it is "remarkable" that huge leadership for the SDGs is coming from the states in India and from the chief ministers.

"The kind of leadership that has been provided in China by the city mayors is effectively now being provided by the state chief ministers in India," he said. Addressing the session, Puri said China has already lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and India too has done quite well recently.

"But for the SDGs to succeed, India has to succeed. If India does not succeed in successfully implementing the SDGs, I am afraid the overall picture for the SDGs is not going to be a good one," Puri said, adding that it is extremely important that India has taken the task of implementing and achieving the SDGs "frontally and in a comprehensive way".

He, however, added that progress on education cannot beachieved without the focus on women and girls. "Gender equality and empowerment of women and girls is an imperative for the SDGs and also an imperative for India," Puri said.

Kher said India is making changes and progress across sectors and "if we don't see news channels and if we don't read newspapers, I discover that today we are really doing amazing things".

As individuals and citizens of the country, we need to know our responsibility towards the country. He pointed out that through movies such as the recent Akshay Kumar-starrer 'Toilet: Ek Prem Katha' that talks about the problem of open defecation in villages, films are contributing in spreading awareness about crucial issues central to achieving the SDGs.

8% is very conservative estimate. BTW average income (per capita) of $5000 is 1/11th of present US per capita. With necessary infra and biz friendly policies in place, we need to aim at double digit growth in the last 5 years of the 15 years.

Muns · Post by **Muns** » 20 Jul 2017 04:55

Prime Minister Narendra Modi government: Reduce the number of public sector banks to 12: To create mega PSU bank

http://www.india-aware.com/prime-minist ... -psu-bank/

The Union government may cut the number of public sector banks to 12 from the existing 21 in the medium term, as part of a three tier structure, there would be at least 3 to 4 banks of the size of SBI, the country’s largest lender, according to the sources.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi government may set up three to four global sized banks and reduce the number of state owned lenders to about 12 as a part of its consolidation agenda.

In June, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said ‘the government is actively working towards consolidation of public sector banks but declined to provide details, saying this was price sensitive information’.

Public Sector Banks (PSBs) are banks where a majority stake that is more than 50% is held by a government. The shares of these banks are listed on stock exchanges. There are a total of 21 Public Sector Banks (PSBs) in India.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 21 Jul 2017 18:40

rahulm wrote:Infrastructure upgrade for Pune: City has planned a Rs 75000 cr revamp

investments of Rs 65,000 crore lined up over the next five to six years on the construction of a new airport, a new Metro link, and a Ring Road, among other projects. Taken together with the Rs10,000 crore that has been committed for water, sewerage and Smart City projects, they have the potential to upgrade Pune’s infrastructure to the next level.(hopefully higher than the Pune river water levels.)

Chhatrapati Sambhaji Raje International Airport at Purandar would start after a nod from the Centre.
with
Land acquisition for the purpose has started and if the 1,200 hectares needed are handed over on time, MADC could build the airport by 2019-20, a senior official says.
too many variables not locked down means this airport won't happen anytime soon

Till the new airport comes up, the growing air traffic needs are to be met by upgrading the existing airport. While in Pune recently, Minister of State for Civil Aviation Jayant Sinha had said, “ With this expansion, the airport will be able to hand 8-10 million passengers per annum from the present 6.5 million.”
How? The present airport is a defence airport and is 'airforce locked'. At current levels it is a traffic and parking mess and there is no available land to expand unless the clever PMRDA acquires (enchroaches via 7/14 extract modifications through the village Tehsildar) Air Force land.

Some of this sounds like 'garam hawa ' after vada pau and 'misal sample'

However, it is pleasing to know that they have decided and named the airport even before its approved. That's good going and the correct priority.'Airport kabh aur kahan banega malum nahi lekin naamkaran to ho gaya'. Refreshing.

They should plan and fund a airport express train service from the outset. Purandar is about 40 kms away. We build these brand spanking new airports and then spend precious time getting to and from these 'TFTA islands' through Gram Panchayat standard traffic, infra or both.

Whatever said and done about Delhi, airport connectivity is fantastic and delays the paharganj/NDLS shock and mess by about 30 minutes.

In stead of building a new airpot, they should invest in a fast trainservice that connects Mumbai and pune. The 150 km should be postbible to be made in 30 min by TGV style train. Even Mumbai AirPort could be moved out of the city.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 21 Jul 2017 18:42

The Mumbai-Ah'bad HSR was initially talked about extending till Pune, but was deemed expensive due to many tunneling work required.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 21 Jul 2017 19:04

If one sees the terrain, one would not suggest a faster link. There is simply no ROI for the massive investments that will be required. Also, Navi Mumbai Airport will be up and running in probably five years. This can handle most of Pune traffic. The 75k cr figure is simply hawabaazi. Basically a bunch of scams being planned. Remember Pune is still a stronghold for the same scamsters from where Hasan Ali, Kalmadi and various pawarful fronts emerged.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jul 2017 19:01

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/teleco ... 32601.html
Mobiles worth Rs 90,000 crore produced in India in 2016-17

"During 2014-15, mobile handsets worth Rs 18,900 crore were produced in India, which increased to Rs 54,000 crore in 2015-16 and further to Rs 90,000 crore in 2016-17," Telecom Minister Manoj Sinha said in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha.

Domestic production of cellular mobile handsets witnessed a growth of 185 per cent in value terms in 2015-16 compared to 2014-15 and 67 per cent in 2016-17 as against 2015-16, he said.

Sinha noted that during the said time-frame, import of mobile handsets declined from 210 million devices (worth USD 7,948 million) in 2014-15 to 146 million units (USD 6,059 million) in 2015-16.

Imports further fell to 76 million units (USD 3,788 million) in 2016-17, he said.

<snip>

"The Government of India has notified the Phased Manufacturing Programme (PMP) to promote indigenous manufacturing of cellular mobile handsets and its sub- assemblies. Basic Customs Duty (BCD) of 10 per cent has been imposed on cellular mobile handsets and identified parts thereof," he added.

This report does not talk of component import.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 24 Jul 2017 13:48

Rishirishi wrote:In stead of building a new airpot, they should invest in a fast trainservice that connects Mumbai and pune. The 150 km should be postbible to be made in 30 min by TGV style train. Even Mumbai AirPort could be moved out of the city.

Existing Indian airports are pretty small affairs with limited connectivity. Given the amount of investment involved, perhaps building India's first hub could be undertaken in this region. There are three major metro areas (Ahmedabad, Mumbai and Pune) that could be served.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Jul 2017 09:25

https://swarajyamag.com/business/less-t ... ig-to-fail

Soon the s**t may hit the fan.

nash · Post by **nash** » 25 Jul 2017 10:20

Income taxpayer base moved up substantially to 6.26 crore at the end of the last fiscal, from nearly 4 crore earlier, CBDT Chairman Sushil Chandra said today.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Jul 2017 21:29

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 785327.ece
Debtors have filed over 33% of insolvency cases

BL Research Bureau:

Essar Steel tried to stay insolvency proceedings against it by moving the Gujarat High Court. But not all Indian companies think along similar lines. Data put out on the website of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India show that Indian borrowers are gradually taking to the idea of filing for insolvency themselves.

Of the 148 cases approved so far by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 (IBC), more than a third were initiated by the defaulters themselves.

This heartening trend is thanks to the provision under the new bankruptcy code that allows a borrower, who could be a corporate or an individual, to initiate the insolvency-resolution process, once it or he has defaulted on a debt.

This allows a business stuck in the vicious cycle of debt to move on and start with a clean slate. With corporate defaulters themselves triggering the insolvency proceedings, resolution could happen faster.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Jul 2017 21:31

Please take the specifics of driverless cars to the autos thread . You can debate the 'less than 10%' claims there .

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 26 Jul 2017 15:53

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-n ... ed/777513/

Crackdown by Yogi government? Noida office of Amrapali builders sealed, son in law of CMD Anil Sharma arrested
Reportedly, the head office of Amrapali Group in Noida has been sealed and two persons including the son-in-law of the group CMD has been arrested.

In a major development, big real estate player and famous Noida-Greater Noida builder Amrapali Group faced a crackdown by authorities on Monday. Reportedly, the head office of Amrapali Group in Noida has been sealed and two persons including the son-in-law of the group CMD has been arrested. According to a report in Navbharat Times, the office was sealed in Noida and two officers of the group including CMD Anil Sharma’s son-in-law Hrithik Sinha have been arrested. The other arrested officer is Nishant Mukul. According to the report, Hrithik is the CEO of the company. The action has been taken as the Amrapali Group has not paid the labour cess of Rs 4 crore.
The development comes a day after UP CM Yogi Adityanath warned real estate players of strict action. The UP CM has expressed disappointment over the irregularities in the real estate sector. Yogi said that the rift between flat buyers and builders is widening and to bridge the gap the government needs to take strict action.
UP CM Yogi Adityanath at the UP Ahead Conclave organised by Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (CREDAI) in Lucknow said that despite making full payments, the buyers are harassed and they are not getting possession on time; this has resulted in the loss of confidence and trust among potential buyers. To bridge this gap amicably, the government will have to take a strong step.
Earlier, on July 27, flat buyers associations of Noida and Greater Noida met Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath seeking action against builders for allegedly harassing home owners by not delivering projects on time and charging extra money.
The two associations, NEFOMA and NEFOWA, demanded that the Real Estate Regulatory Act (RERA), which was passed last year by Parliament, should be implemented in the state on priority.
Meanwhile, PTI reported that the real estate market is facing a multi-year slowdown that has led to a huge delay in deliveries of housing projects of up to 6-7 years, forcing home buyers to stage protests and file legal cases against builders.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Jul 2017 16:28

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... r-standoff
Are China-India trade ties turning sour amid border standoff?

China has complained about India opening an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese solar cell products in the latest trade friction between the two Asian giants amid a border standoff in the Himalayas.

China and India are two fastest-growing major economies, but trade turnover between the two countries fell in 2016. India started 12 cases against Chinese imports in the first half of this year, even more than the 11 cases the US is pursuing against Chinese imported goods, according to the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing.

The Chinese government is highly concerned about New Delhi’s decision last week to investigate the Chinese products for dumping, Wang Hejun, the director general of the commerce ministry’s trade relief bureau, said in a statement on Tuesday.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Jul 2017 20:48

Suraj to translate this

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busine ... 36715.html

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Jul 2017 21:05

It says that there have been record inflows of foreign money into Indian stocks and bonds. In particular, the inflows have focused on bonds - central and state government, as well as corporate bonds. There's a limit imposed by RBI as to how much total value in bonds can be held by foreigners. I think at last count, it was $50 billion. However, foreign investors have been clamoring for it to be raised, due to the huge demand for Indian government debt. The limit used to be ~$30 billion at one time, so quite a bit of additional money has come in. The result of this is an impetus for strengthening of the Rupee. Generally RBI tries to keep exchange rates stable. Daily volatility is not good for those who transact in forex (e.g. exporters) because they have to pay a volatility premium on their deals. A stable exchange rate (even if its rising or falling smoothly) is better.

disha · Post by **disha** » 27 Jul 2017 00:06

Many thanks Suraj San for translating the above in English.

In a nutshell., RBI is having a "good problem". I think GOI can go ahead and float an infrastructure bond., something like $100B bond on the lines of resurgent india bond with actually a low interest rate (moody be damned) and use it primarily for building infrastructure. The share of centre and states should be 50:50 where states can choose what type of infrastructure they need (more towns in UP/Bihar but more bypass roads in Guj/Haryana and more bridges in Mah)

If timed for early part of 2018 and pushed into spending in late 2018., this will give India GDP another 2% bump y-o-y from 2020 onwards till 2025.

James · Post by **James** » 27 Jul 2017 07:46

^^ Two things not explicitly stated but alluded to are:
(i) Stronger rupee would negatively impact India's export competitiveness. Of course, as mentioned in the report, a stronger rupee helps to bring down the import bill, but as commodity prices are already quite low, a stronger rupee does not give a very large reduction in import cost, but the potential adverse impact on India's exports is more .
(ii) Concern on forex borrowings by India's corporate sector. The foreign inflows into debt in India are both for govt. debt and for corporate debt. For the govt debt, there is no great direct impact of exchange rate fluctuation as gilts issued by GOI are all in rupees, so the investor bears the exchange rate risk. However, Indian corporates borrow in foreign currency in order to get the benefit of cheaper interest rates. But if the rupee depreciates at the time of repayment of those forex borrowings, then it could lead to corporate defaults. In fact this is what had happened to lot of forex borrowings in the 2006 to 2008 period. At that time, corporates issued FCCBs (Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds) which could be converted to Equity or could be redeemed. Indian corporates counted on the debt being converted to equity, but the markets tanked. So it did not make sense for the lenders to convert debt to equity as they could buy equity at cheaper prices from the market. They therefore asked for the repayment of the debt, which the Indian corporates could not do and thus defaulted. I think RBI is worried about this happening again, if corporates borrow unsustainable amts. of foreign currency debt, lured by low interest rates now.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jul 2017 09:53

they are desperate to dump solar cells as they have built a overcapacity. in a normal economy such overcapacity is restrained by profit and loss. in china with hidden political support to keep taking crony loans from banks whose NPAs are backstopped by high trade surplus, only domestic debt .... things just keep rolling hoping to crowd out all competition. this is their weaponsized plan to dominate entire segments of the world economy.

but eventually like the breckneck expansion of emirates and etihad has hit fiscal and political winds it runs into problems.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Jul 2017 11:18

There's not an exact relationship between export competitiveness and the exchange rate of the Rupee. For example, our export growth regressed for a couple of years from 2013-15 as we struggled to retain competitiveness despite a very weak Rupee. And now despite the Rupee strengthening this past year, exports are growing strongly.

Companies using ECBs (external commercial borrowings) have fallen significantly. A quick glance at RBI ECB data suggests that. Instead, masala bonds (bonds denominated in Rupees issued by a foreign issuer), and outright foreign purchases of Rupee denominated bonds in the local market have risen strongly. Both of these mean that the buyer bears the interest rate risk, and not the corporate entity raising capital this way.

James · Post by **James** » 27 Jul 2017 14:28

Part of the reason for decline in exports was also due to reduction in crude oil prices. As you know, we export a fair bit of refined petroleum products. Of course, imports also went down due to decline in crude oil prices, but it also drove down exports of the finished POL products. Also, in 2016-17 increase in exports was about 4.7% in dollar terms over the previous year. I think that the nos. for Q1 FY 2017-18 are also similar. So while the trend of decline in exports has been reversed, the growth is not as strong as you are suggesting. As a corollary, the rupee appreciation is also more on a/c of invisibles (services), remittances and especially FDI and FII. In fact I think that even remittances have de-grown marginally over the last 2-3 years.

Coming to ECBs, actually the longer term trend is non-govt external borrowings have been increasing both as a % of GDP as well as a % of total govt + non govt external borrowing. But things have improved a bit over last 1-2 years. Pls have a look at table 6 on page 9 of the enclosed report (bit dated with data as of Sep'16):

http://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/E ... pt16_E.pdf

A related concern is also that if the ECB needs to be refinanced with on-shore debt at the time of maturity, then Indian banks may be still stretched and unable to meet that demand on a/c of their own NPA-riddled portfolio. And the corporate bond market is not big or developed enough to absorb such large requirement, even with the increased FII inflows.

All in all, interesting times ahead.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Jul 2017 20:47

Bloomberg reports:
India Trade Ministry Sees Scope for Lowering Gold Import Tax
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... import-tax

India’s trade ministry sees scope for lowering the import tax on gold as the current account deficit improves in the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal.

“There is a case for lowering import duty,” as it is directly linked to the current-account deficit, which has been improving, Manoj Dwivedi, joint secretary at the trade ministry, told reporters in Mumbai. “It will be one of the strong recommendations on the budgetary side from the ministry.”

The government had raised the import tax three times in 2013 to 10 percent to curb inbound shipments, narrow a record current account deficit and stop a slump in the rupee. The deficit has since shrunk and remains at a comfortable level for the finance ministry to lower the tax and help the gold industry, Dwivedi said. The nation imports almost all the gold it uses.

“We have been saying that an ideal rate for the industry is 2 percent,” he said, referring to the import tax on gold. “It can be brought down in a phased manner or in one go.”

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 28 Jul 2017 02:30

Indian economy: A tale of two narratives

A weak economic growth narrative sits uneasily with dramatically improved macroeconomic stability, but a traditional counter-cyclical response is unlikely to be efficacious

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 28 Jul 2017 21:40

Once 'fragile' India gets thumbs up from foreign investors

When Fed taper fears jolted emerging markets in 2013, India was one of the worst hit and was forced to raise interest rates to underpin its tumbling markets.

Fast forward to this year, and history has been turned on its head. Not only is the US central bank raising rates, but India is widely expected next week to be the first country in Asia to cut policy rates this year.

And rather than being concerned at India's falling policy rate premium over the United States, foreign investors are giving the country's markets the thumbs up.

The rupee is rallying and the country's bonds are in demand, offering some of the best inflation-adjusted returns in Asia. Inflation, long a thorn in the economy, is at its lowest in five years, economic growth is picking up and the current account deficit is a fraction of its old self.

India operates some capital controls, including on foreign investment. Foreign buyers have almost exhausted their quota in debt with net purchases of $21 billion this year - including record high inflows for a January-June period - after net sales of $6 billion last year.An auction of government and corporate bond quotas for foreign investors, which gives them the right to purchase additional debt, was heavily over-subscribed this week.

They have bought a net $8.8 billion in shares, more than the combined $6.3 billion of the previous two years, helping push indexes to record highs. Long positions in the rupee are the highest among major Asian currencies and almost double those of the second-placed Malaysian ringgit, a Reuters poll shows.

India no longer resembles the "Fragile Five" country of 2013, when the RBI was forced to raise rates by 75 basis points to arrest foreign investment outflows. Other countries in this group, including Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa, also took defensive policy measures at the time as their markets came under pressure.

Indian consumer price inflation is now 1.54 per cent, boosting the 10-year bond's real interest rate to 4.9 per cent, the highest in Asia and nearly double the rate of Indonesia, another popular emerging market investment destination.

The rupee has rallied 5.6 per cent against the dollar this year and volatility in the exchange rate is its lowest since mid-August, a reassuring signal for investors.

The current account deficit has narrowed to just 0.6 per cent of GDP from a record 4.8 per cent in 2013, while foreign exchange reserves hit a record $389.1 billion as of July 14.

Economic growth is expected to rise to 7.3 per cent in the financial year to March from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, a Reuters poll shows.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Jul 2017 04:39

FE reserves crossed 391 Billion. I think its the max ( 390 Billion)we ever had.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Jul 2017 07:00

Yes $391 billion is a historic high . We should soon overtake Taiwan, Russia and HK, who are all in the low 400s . Above them there are only 4 - China, Japan, Switzerland and Saudi Arabia. If we get to 500, we will overtake the Saudis as well .

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Jul 2017 08:03

Suraj wrote:Yes $391 billion is a historic high . We should soon overtake Taiwan, Russia and HK, who are all in the low 400s . Above them there are only 4 - China, Japan, Switzerland and Saudi Arabia. If we get to 500, we will overtake the Saudis as well .

I think aim is to have 1T by 2022 .

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Jul 2017 09:55

Suraj wrote:Yes $391 billion is a historic high . We should soon overtake Taiwan, Russia and HK, who are all in the low 400s . Above them there are only 4 - China, Japan, Switzerland and Saudi Arabia. If we get to 500, we will overtake the Saudis as well .

This is all good, but I would also like zero external debt. As of 30 JUN 2017 external debt was $471.9 billion.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 29 Jul 2017 10:58

Much of the external debt will be due to foreign currency deposits held by banks.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Jul 2017 12:00

Mort Walker wrote:
Suraj wrote:Yes $391 billion is a historic high . We should soon overtake Taiwan, Russia and HK, who are all in the low 400s . Above them there are only 4 - China, Japan, Switzerland and Saudi Arabia. If we get to 500, we will overtake the Saudis as well .
This is all good, but I would also like zero external debt. As of 30 JUN 2017 external debt was $471.9 billion.

A lot of external debt is statistical, or long term, or both. Do you have an NRE, NRO or FCNR account ? If so, your deposit adds to external debt, because the money is repatriable (just the interest in case of NRO). And yes, everyone's deposits add up to a lot. India gets the most remittances of any country in the world. It's been a trend for years. A lot of that is held in NRE/NRO/FCNR accounts. Something like $150 billion, give or take. It's the second largest component of that $470 billion figure, after commercial borrowings (ECBs/FCCBs).

Both these are long term debt. They're not considered risk propositions. Short term debt is risky. Only about $80 billion of that $472 billion is short term debt. One more thing - a third of our external debt is in... Rupees. That's right, we owe others approximately $150 billion worth of debt in Rupees. This is on account of foreign holdings of Indian debt instruments, which get repaid when they are due. But since the demand for Indian debt remains strong, it just means they roll it over into new debt purchases. So, 'debt' doesn't necessarily all mean money to be paid back, hanging over our heads. What's more, if push came to shove, we can literally print paper and repay that Rupee debt.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 29 Jul 2017 13:57

Regarding bonds, the credit rating has to improve, the present rating is little unfair. Not only we pay higher interest rate because of that, the cost of insuring (CDS basis points) is higher than it should ideally be.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 29 Jul 2017 14:14

CAG punches holes in recapitalisation of PSBs

http://m.thehindubusinessline.com/money ... 792803.ece

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Jul 2017 23:48

Suraj wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: This is all good, but I would also like zero external debt. As of 30 JUN 2017 external debt was $471.9 billion.
A lot of external debt is statistical, or long term, or both. Do you have an NRE, NRO or FCNR account ? If so, your deposit adds to external debt, because the money is repatriable (just the interest in case of NRO). And yes, everyone's deposits add up to a lot. India gets the most remittances of any country in the world. It's been a trend for years. A lot of that is held in NRE/NRO/FCNR accounts. Something like $150 billion, give or take. It's the second largest component of that $470 billion figure, after commercial borrowings (ECBs/FCCBs).

Both these are long term debt. They're not considered risk propositions. Short term debt is risky. Only about $80 billion of that $472 billion is short term debt. One more thing - a third of our external debt is in... Rupees. That's right, we owe others approximately $150 billion worth of debt in Rupees. This is on account of foreign holdings of Indian debt instruments, which get repaid when they are due. But since the demand for Indian debt remains strong, it just means they roll it over into new debt purchases. So, 'debt' doesn't necessarily all mean money to be paid back, hanging over our heads. What's more, if push came to shove, we can literally print paper and repay that Rupee debt.

In the event of a war with China, both short and long term debt becomes a liability - especially when this liability is nearly 20% of GDP. In such a case it would create an additional drag along with Rupee devaluation when the shooting starts. Then India needs to import ammunition and spares at inflated prices. It would be a double hit.

Having the total liability 5-7% of GDP would make it easier to import arms and keep liability commitments without defaulting.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Jul 2017 00:39

We aren't really in the realm of economics when we start talking about war and other black swan moments. For what it's worth, the Chinese have over $1.5 TRILLION in external debt. And that's not counting Hong Kong. Add that and it's over $3 trillion. Plus the enormous losses in export and investment inflows because of macro instability involving war. Everyone's going to be hurt in war, and they'll lose a lot more $$ than us.

Right now, our situation is fine. I'd like us to run a current account surplus however, i.e. merchandise exports in excess of imports, and build forex reserves well in excess of $500-700 billion.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 30 Jul 2017 01:26

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 827226.cms
GST nets a million more taxpayers, registrations cross the 10 lakh mark

NEW DELHI: New registrations under the goods & services tax (GST) crossed the 10 lakh mark on Saturday, a milestone that brings cheer to policymakers who have been hoping for an increase in the tax base after the rollout of the new tax measure.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Jul 2017 05:08

Suraj wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: This is all good, but I would also like zero external debt. As of 30 JUN 2017 external debt was $471.9 billion.
A lot of external debt is statistical, or long term, or both. Do you have an NRE, NRO or FCNR account ? If so, your deposit adds to external debt, because the money is repatriable (just the interest in case of NRO). And yes, everyone's deposits add up to a lot. India gets the most remittances of any country in the world. It's been a trend for years. A lot of that is held in NRE/NRO/FCNR accounts. Something like $150 billion, give or take. It's the second largest component of that $470 billion figure, after commercial borrowings (ECBs/FCCBs).
Both these are long term debt. They're not considered risk propositions. Short term debt is risky. Only about $80 billion of that $472 billion is short term debt. One more thing - a third of our external debt is in... Rupees. That's right, we owe others approximately $150 billion worth of debt in Rupees. This is on account of foreign holdings of Indian debt instruments, which get repaid when they are due. But since the demand for Indian debt remains strong, it just means they roll it over into new debt purchases. So, 'debt' doesn't necessarily all mean money to be paid back, hanging over our heads. What's more, if push came to shove, we can literally print paper and repay that Rupee debt.

I believe the commercial borrowing is done by private businesses and GOI is not liable for this debt.