China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

[AdityaM]

Links below has video of Chinese armed drone

https://twitter.com/cgtnofficial/status ... 7725642752

[Austin]

The launch of the Chinese ground-launched cruise missile DF-10






http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2766466.html

[Austin]

China Shows New Fighters, Missiles and Drones

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... and-drones

[Aditya_V]

The launch of the Chinese ground-launched cruise missile DF-10



http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2766466.html

Apart from the paint scheme these look a lot like Badr cruise missiles.

[Bart S]

The launch of the Chinese ground-launched cruise missile DF-10



http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2766466.html

Apart from the paint scheme these look a lot like Badr cruise missiles.

So are you saying the Pakis repainted Chinese missiles or that the Chinese repainted Paki missiles?

[shiv]

Chinese military recruitment video with translation..
https://twitter.com/bennedose/status/893052808563380225

[AdityaM]

China Shows New Fighters, Missiles and Drones

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... and-drones

There are 3 lessons in this article: Reverse-Engineer , Reverse-Engineer & Reverse-Engineer

Something that for ages has been ridiculed in BRF for no good reason.

We not only not Reverse-Engineer, we went slow even on a AK47 derived-inspired design when it's creator balked at it.

Every weapon in that article is the result of Reverse-Engineering to achieve self sufficiency.

[Bharadwaj]

edited: oops wrong thread

[UlanBatori]

Probably the last video I am going to make unless I get some great inspiration
Points of confrontation between India and China

May your goats scamper up and down the mountainsides with ease! That is excellent.

[Sid]

China Shows New Fighters, Missiles and Drones

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... and-drones

There are 3 lessons in this article: Reverse-Engineer , Reverse-Engineer & Reverse-Engineer

Something that for ages has been ridiculed in BRF for no good reason.

We not only not Reverse-Engineer, we went slow even on a AK47 derived-inspired design when it's creator balked at it.

Every weapon in that article is the result of Reverse-Engineering to achieve self sufficiency.

That is not true, lot of Indian maal from BEL/LRDE/DRDO/OFB is reversed engineered.

Dhanush and Vidhwansak AMR are few examples. We do similar things but scale/pace is eclipsed by what Chinese folks are doing.

[Karan M]

Sid, bar cursory external appearance very little of DRDO/LRDE/BEL stuff is reverse engineered. BEL does not even bother to do RE, it just buys stuff, even Chinese items. The examples you cite are more the exception than the norm, India is bound by legalism and "what if the spares stop" mindset. For instance, will we ever see any Indian Su-30 MKI? You know the answer...

[UlanBatori]

I was reading The Holy Chronicles of WikiPurana when I came across this vely vely glave statement:

According to James Calvin, an analyst from the U.S. Navy, India gained many benefits from the 1962 conflict. This war united the country as never before. India got 32,000 square miles (8.3 million hectares, 83,000 km2) of disputed territory even if it felt that NEFA was hers all along.

Hmmm! Never heard that b4!

mollifed by the earlier statement:

The positions to which the Chinese troops withdrew in the Western sector were different from the pre-war positions.[55][56] The area gained by China in Ladakh has been claimed by India to be 6,475 square kilometres (2,500 sq mi),[57] and the total area occupied by China has been estimated to be 14,500 square miles (38,000 km2).[55]

So the main "gain" of PeeAllSee was the barren wasteland of Aksai Hind. That needs to be fixed as part of the larger liberation of Xinjiang and Northern Dharmasala.

Also, if u read the accounts of human-wave Chinese assaults in brutal Himalayan conditions, you can see the sense in that very accurate post by the Mongolian relative of the Chinese war dead. The losses in the PLA must have been absolutely horrifying if it was any other nation.

[Gaur]

India building up troops, supplies along border amid Doklam stand off, alleges China

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 264_1.html

China's Foreign Ministry on Thursday said India has been building up troops and repairing roads along its side of the border amid an increasingly tense stand-off in a remote frontier region beside the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan.

The stand-off on a plateau next to the mountainous Indian state of Sikkim, which borders China, has ratcheted up tension between the neighbours, who share a 3,500-km (2,175-mile) frontier, large parts of which are disputed.

"It has already been more than a month since the incident, and India is still not only illegally remaining on Chinese territory, it is also repairing roads in the rear, stocking up supplies, massing a large number of armed personnel," the foreign ministry said in a statement.


"This is certainly not for peace."

India has denied any such military buildup and, in a statement to parliament on Thursday evening, Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj urged dialogue based on a written common understanding regarding the border intersection reached in 2012.

"India always believes that peace and tranquility in the India-China border is an important pre-requisite for smooth development of our bilateral relations," Swaraj said, according to a transcript of her remarks released by her office.

"We will continue to engage with the Chinese side through diplomatic channels to find a mutually acceptable solution."

Early in June, according to the Chinese interpretation of events, Indian guards crossed into China's Donglang region and obstructed work on a road on the plateau.

The two sides' troops then confronted each other close to a valley controlled by China that separates India from its close ally, Bhutan, and gives China access to the so-called Chicken's Neck, a thin strip of land connecting India and its remote northeastern regions.

India has said it warned China that construction of the road near their common border would have serious security implications.

In a separate statement, China's Defence Ministry said China had shown goodwill and that its forces had exercised utmost restraint, but warned "restraint has a bottom line" and that India must dispel any illusions.

"No country should underestimate the Chinese military's confidence in and ability to fulfil its mission of safeguarding peace, and should not underestimate the Chinese military's determination and will to defend the country's sovereignty, security and development interests," it said.

Despite China's numerous diplomatic representations, its foreign ministry said, India has not only not withdrawn its troops but has also been making "unreasonable demands" and is not sincere about a resolution.

"If India really cherishes peace, it ought to immediately withdraw its personnel who have illegally crossed the border into the Indian side."

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to visit China early in September for a summit of BRICS leaders.

Indian officials say about 300 soldiers from either side are facing each other about 150 meters (yards) apart on the plateau.

They have told Reuters that both sides' diplomats have quietly engaged to try to keep the stand-off from escalating, and that India's ambassador to Beijing is leading the effort to find a way for both sides to back down without loss of face.

Chinese state media have warned India of a fate worse than the defeat it suffered in a brief border war in 1962.

China's military has held live fire drills close to the disputed area, and state television on Friday said more exercises had been conducted recently, though did not give an exact location.

The official China Daily said in a Friday editorial that China was not in the mood for a fight, noting how the stand off has been "unusually restrained".

"However, if good manners do not work, in the end, it may be necessary to rethink our approach. Sometimes a head-on blow may work better than a thousand pleas in waking up a dreamer," the English-language paper added.

[Austin]

Even Reverse Engineer is an art just because they have a product does not mean they can reverse engineer it .it takes a lot of effort at a scale of doing something new to reverse engineer a platform , with all the pros & cons that comes with that approach

Only China and Iran has been able to reverse engineer multiple platforms on a mass scale something both have learnt to do due to decades of sanction on them.

[chola]

Even Reverse Engineer is an art just because they have a product does not mean they can reverse engineer it .it takes a lot of effort at a scale of doing something new to reverse engineer a platform , with all the pros & cons that comes with that approach

Only China and Iran has been able to reverse engineer multiple platforms on a mass scale something both have learnt to do due to decades of sanction on them.

Maybe Iran but there the highest level of RE is the F-5 which is the exact equivalent of the MiG-21 clones that Cheen made during the period it was embargoed by both Rus and Unkil. That is as far as it goes for true RE and even there I have caveats -- from what people could tell the Azarakhsh (twin tailed F-5) never reached mass production and might be nothing more than cobbling together of F-5 parts under a handful of new exteriors.

Everything else in Cheen are simple ToT in my humble opinion. NO ONE, including Cheen, could make every one of those thousands of precision parts and have them work together without the OEMs' input. Not possible.

Every Flanker variant from J-11B to J-15 to J-16 was branched off from the SU-27 project. I can guarantee you that Sukhoi were in on it every step of the way otherwise, the Russians would not be supplying engines for their three critical projects the J-20, J-31 and JF-17.

You think the Russians who turns the screws on India if we deviate a nut from the contract would just let Cheen copy endless variants of their precious Flanker? Bullshit. If Cheen really copied, then their "stealth" programs and their politically important FC-1 would be literally grounded without smoky engines to fly them.

The same goes for all their helo programs. Z-8 and Z-9 are nothing but ToT from Eurocopter. The fact that EC are involved in their current Z-11 and Z-15 projects means there were no contract conflicts.

Then there are the buying of foreign companies and talent. Read the story earlier in this thread of 2000 Ukrainian engine specialists being housed in Cheen.

You cannot RE modern systems. You could leverage your market and sign true Transfers of Technology into your own factories instead of screwdriver giri of parts made in phoren factories. You can buy foreign talent instead of paying for finished products.

But thinking you can RE a modern plane or a sub and then have those actually fly or sail without input from the OEM is pure horse manure.

[Singha]

after all these years how exactly is Iran able to keep its F-14 and F-4 flying ? must be some backdoor deal with Uncle to obtain spares.

[Aditya_V]

after all these years how exactly is Iran able to keep its F-14 and F-4 flying ? must be some backdoor deal with Uncle to obtain spares.

Would you believe US was supplying parts through Israel from 1982 onwards.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -Iran.html

This is as recently as 2014.

US Homeland Security says Israeli arms dealers have been sending spare military jet parts to Iran in breach of sanctions

But a court in Athens has told The Telegraph that parts appearing on an American list of forbidden military-grade materials had been shipped from Israel on two occasions, apparently destined for Iran.
The seized items comprised spare parts for military aircraft: a constant speed drive designed for the F-4 Phantom jet, and a voltage output sensor used in the F-14 Tomcat.

[chola]

after all these years how exactly is Iran able to keep its F-14 and F-4 flying ? must be some backdoor deal with Uncle to obtain spares.

Up until the 1970s, the average American can work on building their own cars and souping up engines in their home garages.

Today, they cannot do that anymore. The F-5 and MiG-21 represent that 1970s equivalent state in aircraft.

Now copying a part here and there is possible. But even here there are news stories of people arrested for smuggling or conspiracy to smuggle F-14 and other US parts to Iran.

If there is one thing that Iran would have reverse-engineered if they really had that ability, it would have been the F-14. Almost certain that the chinis (and Russians) would have been granted access to the Tomcat considering how deeply the PRC were involved in supplying arms (and nuclear/missile proliferation) to Iran.

To this date, no F-14 clone is even attempted. Not in Iran, not in China, not in Russia. That should tell you how feasible it is to RE a modern system. The F-14 was a crown jewel in American aviation technology, there was nothing you would want to clone more if RE were really feasible.

[Singha]

yeah hard to believe "israeli arms dealers" were keeping things moving and US was totally unaware of it. must be quid pro quo in other areas.

[nam]

Israelis were suppling F16 parts to Pakis, when they were under sanction. Uncle has ways to manage their munna.

[Singha]

turkey also probably.

[nam]

Yeah turkey as well.

[shiv]

Our men seems to be well covered, while TFTA Commie army lot with only fatigues and caps in a cold place?

Seems everything is about PR.

Also notice the difference in numbers

Excellent observation. My take on the difference is that the Indian soldiers are camped nearby and the Cheenis have driven in on a vehicle from a warm faraway base.

Cross post from Strat forum
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 839_1.html
Shooklaw

When India crossed into Doklam and confronted the Chinese construction parties, “they were taken completely by surprise and offered no resistance”, says an officer privy to events. “These are no soldiers; they are conscripted border guards, who live in heated barracks and periodically patrol the border in vehicles. They don’t walk much”, says an Indian commander.

“Our soldiers, in contrast, live a far tougher life. In Doklam, they stand guard without moving, while the Chinese keep breaking the line and going back for cigarette breaks. Indian morale is sky-high; soldiers know they are participating in something unprecedented – crossing a border to defend an Indian ally”, says the Indian officer.

Eventually, the Chinese had to send in a political commissar, recount Indian officers. “The commissar ordered up martial music and the hoisting of Chinese flags to stiffen resolve. They clearly had problems”, he says.

In the macho manner of militaries, the Indian Army is using a large number of Sikh and Jat soldiers to man the line in Doklam – in the expectation that their height and sturdiness would intimidate the smaller Chinese.

[chola]

Excellent observation. My take on the difference is that the Indian soldiers are camped nearby and the Cheenis have driven in on a vehicle from a warm faraway base.

Cross post from Strat forum
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 839_1.html
Shooklaw

When India crossed into Doklam and confronted the Chinese construction parties, “they were taken completely by surprise and offered no resistance”, says an officer privy to events. “These are no soldiers; they are conscripted border guards, who live in heated barracks and periodically patrol the border in vehicles. They don’t walk much”, says an Indian commander.

“Our soldiers, in contrast, live a far tougher life. In Doklam, they stand guard without moving, while the Chinese keep breaking the line and going back for cigarette breaks. Indian morale is sky-high; soldiers know they are participating in something unprecedented – crossing a border to defend an Indian ally”, says the Indian officer.

Eventually, the Chinese had to send in a political commissar, recount Indian officers. “The commissar ordered up martial music and the hoisting of Chinese flags to stiffen resolve. They clearly had problems”, he says.

In the macho manner of militaries, the Indian Army is using a large number of Sikh and Jat soldiers to man the line in Doklam – in the expectation that their height and sturdiness would intimidate the smaller Chinese.

I already said a few posts back that, in my expert analysis, that these were not PLA regulars.

LoL. Conscripted border guards live in heated barracks and patrol in vehicles only.

What about the more privileged PLA? Do they even leave their heated barracks and patrol at all? I mean this is the border where your government is making all this noise! At least make an appearance. lol

Whatever happened in 1962, I have doubts that the CPC can order this army to human wave anyone today.

I can't imagine a softer nation.

Let's roll!

[kmkraoind]

Little Emperor Syndrome

The Little Emperor Syndrome (or Little Emperor Effect) is an aspect/view of China's one-child policy where only children gain seemingly excessive amounts of attention from their parents and grandparents. Combined with increased spending power within the family unit and parents' general desire for their child to experience the benefits they themselves were denied, the phenomenon is generally considered to be problematic. Andrew Marshall even argues that it is shaping Chinese society in unexpected ways[1] that may culminate into a future "behavioral time-bomb."[2]

Chinese social security is abysmal in rural areas. These Chinese conscripts know, value of their life and aftermath life of their 2 parents and 4 grandparents.

[AdityaM]

If the PLA is a lanky setup like folks here want to believe, then would their war strategy be to maximise drone & missile & artillery based warfare.

How widespread is their armed drone adoption

[AdityaM]

An Appraisal Of Chinese Early Warning Sites In The Chumbi Valley

The two EW sites taken together seem to be a complete radar unit of the PLAAF and would provide fairly comprehensive coverage of Central and Eastern India. Due to their geographical location and height, these sites have direct line of sight to most important Indian airports in the aforementioned regions. For instance, they can easily monitor all air traffic at places like Lucknow, Dibrugarh, Imphal, Kolkata and Panagarh

[Manish_Sharma]

^How many Brahmos or Kh-anti radiation missiles we will need to expend to destroy this complex?

[nam]

An Appraisal Of Chinese Early Warning Sites In The Chumbi Valley

The two EW sites taken together seem to be a complete radar unit of the PLAAF and would provide fairly comprehensive coverage of Central and Eastern India. Due to their geographical location and height, these sites have direct line of sight to most important Indian airports in the aforementioned regions. For instance, they can easily monitor all air traffic at places like Lucknow, Dibrugarh, Imphal, Kolkata and Panagarh

But can they monitor IAF jets sneaking in through 2000 feet deep Himalayan valleys

[chola]

Funny there are no pictures or reports of aerial intercepts along the hindi-chini border. Intercepts are pretty common in the east between chins and Unkil or chins and Japani or Taiwanese or Koreans -- those come with lots of pictures and complaints by one or the other of dangerous tactics.

Yet, on our border there are no evidence of aerial confrontation at all over Doka La or anywhere else on the front.

In fact, I have never a seen single picture of chini-hindi play in the air.

My guess is Cheen simply has no assets in the region because of altitude problems.

I think our aircraft range free over the entire front.

[shiv]

An Appraisal Of Chinese Early Warning Sites In The Chumbi Valley

The two EW sites taken together seem to be a complete radar unit of the PLAAF and would provide fairly comprehensive coverage of Central and Eastern India. Due to their geographical location and height, these sites have direct line of sight to most important Indian airports in the aforementioned regions. For instance, they can easily monitor all air traffic at places like Lucknow, Dibrugarh, Imphal, Kolkata and Panagarh

With due respect to this gentleman about whom I have said harsh things, once again he has failed to provide coordinates. I am grateful to AkshayD for providing them

1: 27.741857, 89.199996 (copy paste in google maps)

2: 27.834362, 89.136749

I still have a problem with what the man says about monitoring traffic in Lucknow, Dibrugarh, Imphal, Kolkata, Panagarh

These radar sites are about 50 km from Thimphu so I will simply look at distances from Thimphu, Bhutan. I assume a radar altitude of 5000 meters

• Thimphu Lucknow is 800 plus km
  Thimphu Dibrugarh is 500 km
  Thimphu Imphal is 500 km
  Thimphu Kolkata is 500 plus km
  Thimphu Panagarh is 460 odd km

Now here is a beautiful calculator that tells you how high a target can fly and still stay below the target horizon
https://dizzib.github.io/earth/curve-ca ... nit=metric

Assuming Chinese radar to be at 5000 meters
The horizon is at 250 km at the level of earth
If the target (plane) is 500 km away (Dibrugarh, Imphal, Kolkata) - the aircraft will be hidden as long as it stays below 4800 meters (15,000 feet)
If the target plane is 800 km away (Lucknow) it will be hidden behind the radar horizon up to an altitude of 28,000 meters or 77,000 feet

Another gross omission is the fact that there are peaks that are 4500-5000 meter high between those radar sites and India and Nepal and bhutan. Those peaks are just 30-50 km away and will play havoc with the radar horizon

Unfortunately our Intel expert seems to have forgotten about the curvature of the earth. Even his images ignore that. Not nice for a self advertised intel expert

[Singha]

he is BSing and has no knowledge of radar or ew problems. they can probably keep a lookout over part of bhutan , sikkim and siliguri area to give some warning of our movements but thats it.

[brar_w]

Radar horizon is different and slightly more than the visual horizon (in the calculations above the radar horizon will be closer to 300km vs a 250 km visual horizon). Assuming radar emplacement at 5000 m and all other favorable conditions a potential target needs to fly below 9000 ft / 2700 m in order to utilize the radar horizon limitations to its advantage.

http://members.home.nl/7seas/radcalc.htm

Of course Early warning radar performance and other long range detection and avoidance techniques are more nuanced them simply the maximum horizon calculation.

[shiv]

he is BSing and has no knowledge of radar or ew problems. they can probably keep a lookout over part of bhutan , sikkim and siliguri area to give some warning of our movements but thats it.

I posted a comment on the site with a brief synopsis of the info

[Singha]

a precarious zig zag road with 41 hairpin bends has been built to the above site. there is no power line to that place, means a diesel tank is driving generators.
1 brahmos will take care of it.

open the link below in chrome browser for good imagery
https://earth.google.com/web/@27.741096 ... 314031t,0r

[brar_w]

Poorly or lightly defended Early Warning radar sites are more significant during peacetime and gaining intelligence and situational awareness then during wartime. For the latter you either need to invest in more protection (which could be added as a drop in provided there are provisions built) or gain more survivability (mobile radars, airborne radars and EW assets etc etc). The Chinese must have learnt lessons from what happened to Saddam Hussain's EW radars and are likely to layer their Surveillance capabilities with fixed, mobile, land based and airborne assets and then train with that multi domain doctrine.

[Singha]

yes all of the big SAM radars are on trailers and fold up for transport.
those are the more interesting ones.

[brar_w]

Not only SAM radars, but also deployable /relocatable surveillance radars that are independent of a SAM system. Ideally you want those and also gap radars that can come in and cover some of the coverage gaps on account of terrain etc. Indian Intelligence would know where some of these sites the Chinese usually deploy their mobile and gap filler radars and would be tracking the frequency and how much time they are spending training etc.

[Iyersan]

Read all of Vivek Ahuja scenarios and the book too.... will spec ops teams be in place tracking enemy movements at this time along the border or in Chinese Territory?

[nam]

Mobile or Static radar would have tough time handling clutter that massive Himalayan peaks will reflect.

I remember reading how IAF recon aircraft would fly through the peaks and suddenly rise up on to plateau intrude in to Tibetan airspace, do the work and come back.

IAF jets flying at 15000 feet could be in reality be travelling at 50 feet on tibeatan plateau.

How will Chinese detect that?