Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[vijaykarthik]

From what I have seen, its been quite worth it.

I actually got the details about NightWatch only here. I think SS and ramana used to put up snippets earlier in BRF.

BTW, I checked and the alternate media outlet is Peoples daily. http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0810/c90000-9253612.html

[pankajs]

Lets say they smash IA at Dokalam with a first volley of missiles. Possible because the soldiers are in the open exposed to straight up shooting. What about the troops at the Doka La pass just outside the area claimed by China? Lets say they hit them too but what about the next line of troops backing those at Doka La pass? And so on and so forth.

Unless they take out most of the IA formations deployed in the Sikkim area there is no way they can prevent IA from immediately going back to the Dokala plateau.

Next, their CJ-10 cruise missiles comes with 1,100 lb conventional. 100-200 such missiles cannot stop IA especially in mountain region with adequate dispersion / fortification / bunkers. So unless they use IRBMs they are not likely to achieve much.

Air assets will be met with air assets from our side. If this is all they plan to deploy then it is not going to work. We are going to pound their troop / logistic base in the Chumbi valley using arty, Brahmos and Air assets. India will not need to look beyond the immediate area. IOR is far far away. IOR will come into play only if ballistic missiles come into play i.e an all out war is signaled.

BTW, why are they leaking the story and killing the surprise. This is either a scare tactics or they have gone baki i.e. planning a war without factoring in the response from the other side. Looks more like a psyops. The Chinese by now are aware that every word that is uttered from their side is read religiously at least in Indian media. But there is no harm in being prepared.

[vijaykarthik]

^ it could be possible that the Chinese don't have their famed long range planners or war planners anymore.

However, something seems fishy.

[Iyersan]

Pankajsji they won't hit Doklam. It will be other area

[pankajs]

BTW, guy no ji, etc for me.. pankaj, pankajs are fine

Same problem ... Unless IA keeps all its troops / equipment collected into a 500m x 500m space, 100-200 cruise missile with 1,100 lb warhead is not going to make much of a difference that to in a mountainous area.

We know that IA is dispersed all over Sikkim.

[Iyersan]

^^If above scenarios lead to a loss event for china.... why would they want to attack? There must be avenues or lacunae which needs to be addressed on the Indian side? Probably we must think on what those could be?

[rsingh]

^^^
I see this very often. why posters are avoiding "ji" like plague? True , I left Desh long ago. May be I am missing something.

[pankajs]

Anyone remember the launch of Tomahawk missiles on Syrian airport. How many were launched and what was the extent of the damage? It should give us a fairly accurate picture. And that was a simpler strike.

[Iyersan]

^ Flattened the area

[pankajs]

How many did it take to flatten the area and how long after the airport was operational? Effectiveness has to be judged by the quantity used vs the impact.

[Iyersan]

The Pentagon said 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired from two warships in the Mediterranean at the Shayrat airfield in Homs province, targeting the base from where US officials believe Tuesday's attack in Khan Sheikhoun had been launched.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/u ... 24492.html

[pankajs]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04 ... tomahawks/
Syrian warplanes take off once again from air base bombed by US Tomahawks

Just hours after the al-Shayrat airfield was bombed with 59 US Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from warships in the Mediterranean, aircraft struck targets in the eastern Homs countryside, according to a monitoring group.
...
Observers had reported the base had been badly destroyed by the 1,000lb warheads and that several planes and a runway had been put out of service.
...
"Although the strike will further weaken the overall air defense and ground attack capabilities of the (Syrian air force), it will not significantly diminish the ability of the Assad regime to conduct further chemical weapons attacks," wrote analyst Reed Foster of the defense and intelligence publication Jane's.

Col. Hassan Hamade, a Syrian pilot who defected in June 2012 when he landed his MiG-21 in Jordan, agreed.

"The bombardment of Shayrat will not have a major effect on military operations of the regime," said Mr Hamade, speaking to The Associated Press. He said if only the tarmac was destroyed it can be fixed within hours, but if the communications system and the control tower were heavily damaged it will take weeks if not months.

So 59 Tomahawk [similar 1,000 lbs warhead as CJ-10] could not fully disable ONE airport in a much more favorable terrain with all of US latest & greatest C4I infra in the world backing the attack.

This is not to say that we must ignore the threat but unless the Chinese go ballastic there is no way to push India off Doakalam plateau.

[zoverian]

I am posting from mobile hence cant post the full tweet of Gaurav Pradhan.....He is talking about Raga meeting with Nomi Nouman a right hand of ISI chief...and some connection to china...50 minutes back

Please if some one help in posting that tweet here.

Seniors any insight on this...

[g.sarkar]

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-se ... rt-1736676
More Troops Sent Along China Border, Caution Level Raised: Report
Neither India nor China has shown any sign of backing off from a face-off that began nearly three months ago along the Sikkim border when Indian soldiers entered the Doklam plateau to stop the Chinese army from constructing a road.
All India | Edited by Arun Nair | Updated: August 11, 2017 22:13 IST
ndia has increased operational readiness by sending more troops along the eastern border with China, sources told news agencies Reuters and Press Trust of India. The latter said that the army has also raised the "caution level" among army formations who are guarding the 1400-km border in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. Army officials refused to comment on the reports because they said they cannot reveal operational details.
.....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKBN1AR191
India's military steps up operational readiness on China border
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's military has increased operational readiness along the eastern Indian border with China, sources said, as neither side shows any sign of backing off from a face-off in a remote Himalayan region near their disputed frontier.
Indian and Chinese troops have been embroiled in the seven-week confrontation on the Doklam plateau, claimed by both China and India's tiny ally, Bhutan.
The sources, who were briefed on the deployment, said they did not expect the tensions, involving about 300 soldiers on each side standing a few hundred feet apart, to escalate into a conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors, who fought a brief but bloody border war in 1962.
But the military alert level had been raised as a matter of caution, two sources in New Delhi and in the eastern state of Sikkim told Reuters on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
....
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 024401.cms
India deploys more troops along China border in Sikkim, Arunachal
PTI|Aug 11, 2017, 08.57 PM IST
EW DELHI: In a strategically key move, India has poured in more troops along the entire stretch of its border with China in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh in the face of heightened rhetoric by Beijing over the Dokalam standoff, senior government officials said today.
The "caution level" among the troops has also been raised, the officials told PTI.
...
The Army's Sukna-based 33 Corps, as well as 3 and 4 corps based in Arunachal and Assam, are tasked to protect the sensitive Sino-India border in the eastern theatre. The officials declined to give any figure or percentage of increased deployment, saying they cannot disclose "operational details."
According to defence experts, roughly 45,000 troops including personnel having completed the weather acclimatisation process are normally kept ready along the border at any given time, but not all are necessarily deployed. The soldiers, deployed over 9,000 feet, have to go through a 14-day-long acclimatisation process. The officials, however, said there is no enhancement of troops at the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction in Dokalam where around 350 army personnel are hold on to their position for nearly eight weeks after stopping Chinese troops from constructing a road on June 16.
....
Gautam

[pankajs]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 025495.cms
India quietly bringing in more troops, weapon systems as China continues its sabre-rattling

Sources said a top-level flag meeting between major-general rank officers from India and China was held at the Nathu La border personnel meeting (BPM) point in Sikkim for the first time on Friday, following failure of a similar meet between brigade commanders on August 8 to break the deadlock.

But the meeting also proved "inconclusive" with China remaining adamant that India should immediately withdraw its troops from the Bhutanese territory of Doklam near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction. "The Indian side held China should first remove its road construction equipment from the site. Both sides will now report back to their headquarters," said a source.

The meeting between top military officers indicates a line of communication at the ground level and efforts to exchange perceptions and possibly explore means to contain the confrontation.

In the eastern theatre, this primarily includes the 33 Corps headquartered in Sukna, with the 17 (Gangtok), 27 (Kalimpong) and 20 (Binnaguri) Mountain Divisions under its control. Each division has 10,000-15,000 soldiers who have undergone acclimatization for the high-altitude forward areas.

The 3 Corps (Dimapur) and 4 Corps (Tezpur), with similar infantry and mountain divisions under them, have also been activated as a precautionary move. IAF airbases in the North-East are also maintaining a high operational alert, with "combat air patrols" on a regular basis, said sources.

Uncertainty also hangs over the traditional annual invitation to the PLA at the five BPM points on the LAC - Daulat Beg Oldi and Chushul in Ladakh, Bum La and Kibithu in Arunachal, and Nathu La in Sikkim - to celebrate India's Independence Day on August 15. Indian troops, however, had not crossed over to the Chinese side to mark the 90th anniversary of the PLA on August 1 due to the ongoing tensions.

[g.sarkar]

http://www.sify.com/news/sushma-swaraj- ... gdbge.html
Sushma Swaraj, Bhutan FM reviewed all aspects of New Delhi-Thimpu 'wide-ranging' partnership:
MEA Source : Last Updated: Fri, Aug 11, 2017 20:48 hrs
[Nepal], August 11 (ANI): The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on Friday said that External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Bhutan's Foreign Minister Damcho Dorji, who met in Kathmandu earlier in the day, reviewed all aspects of India-Bhutan partnership which is wide-ranging. "Both reviewed all aspects of India-Bhutan partnership which is wide-ranging," Joint Secretary in-charge of ties with Bhutan Sudhakar Dalela said, while addressing the press conference.
.....
Two-day ministerial meeting of the BIMSTEC started here yesterday. The meeting was organised in Soaltee Crowne Plaza, Kathmandu. At the top of the agenda for the meeting are finalising a free trade agreement among BIMSTEC members, including negotiations on market access for professionals and reducing the duty on trading goods. The meeting was chaired by Nepal Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba with remarks from President of BIMSTEC, Nepal Foreign Minister and Foreign Secretary of Nepal being organized in Soaltee Crowne Plaza, Kathmandu.
.....

Quiet moves are being made. India may not be as isolated as the lizard papers or lizard paid papers are making us to be.
Gautam

[g.sarkar]

It is clear Gujarati style dhokla is ready to be served, but Lizard is reluctant to get it at Dhokla. So it may be served at some other equally picturesque site. Lizard can not do a 1965 by moving to a different place, occupying land and then quickly declare victory and move on. The number of Indian soldiers deployed seems huge by any standards.
Gautam

[nam]

So 59 Tomahawk [similar 1,000 lbs warhead as CJ-10] could not fully disable ONE airport in a much more favorable terrain with all of US latest & greatest C4I infra in the world backing the attack.

This is not to say that we must ignore the threat but unless the Chinese go ballastic there is no way to push India off Doakalam plateau.

US apparently fired 120 Tomahawks to knock off one Libyan airbase. Chinese can fire CM & BM on IAF bases to kick off the fight.

But that is not going to prevent 12 IA division falling on the Commie Army on LAC. And we will be bombing Commie Airforce bases we ll.

[nam]

“The PLA will not seek to fight a ground war with Indian troops early on. Instead it will deploy aircraft and strategic missiles to paralyse Indian mountain divisions stationed in the Himalayas on the border with China,” a military insider told the South China Morning Post on condition of anonymity, adding that he believes Indian troops will probably hold out for “no more than a week”.

The first question to the Chinese. How will Chini cruise missile, ballistic missile, rockets find and then target Indian mountain divisions deployed on reverse slope and forest areas? Cruise missiles cannot hold territory.

Second question: What happens if Indian mountain divisions hold out for "more than a week".... with Chinis having used a lot of cruise & ballistic missiles?

is this the Chini version of "troops will be home by Christmas".

[Atulya P]

So 59 Tomahawk [similar 1,000 lbs warhead as CJ-10] could not fully disable ONE airport in a much more favorable terrain with all of US latest & greatest C4I infra in the world backing the attack.

This is not to say that we must ignore the threat but unless the Chinese go ballastic there is no way to push India off Doakalam plateau.

US apparently fired 120 Tomahawks to knock off one Libyan airbase. Chinese can fire CM & BM on IAF bases to kick off the fight.

But that is not going to prevent 12 IA division falling on the Commie Army on LAC. And we will be bombing Commie Airforce bases we ll.

Cheen doesn't have such deep pockets as khan does. Moreover, with no AD to speak of, 5 thawks can take out a base. Using 59 is more of a jhapad rather than a bullet to the head.

[pankajs]

I am not as optimistic about China .. but I am confident of Indian forces.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 015368.cms
India is winning Doklam war without firing a single bullet. A policy expert explains how
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra -- The writer is senior fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal.

For some strange reason people in India seem to think that India is somehow on the backfoot in its latest showdown with China over the Dokalam trijunction. Some feel that should the situation continue or deteriorate, ‘strategic defiance’ may be the only option. This, however, is not the impression in Beijing. In private, the Chinese feel that they, rather than India, are caught in a bind, unable to resort to the use of force for fear of destroying the myth of nuclear deterrence, but still supremely confident that strategic defiance by India, on the other hand, will be economically and diplomatically disastrous for India. {This is true of most countries but India and US. With both China has a huge trade balance and hence the immediate looser will be China. But I guess the Chinese are accustomed to dealing with Philippines are unable to grasp the facts.}

As a dear friend in Beijing summed it up rather rudely, “India is a dog. Whatever we do to you, you will first bark and snarl, but then accept and come back wagging your tail. The problem now is what we can do to you is also very limited.” This raises the question as to why India feels it is losing control of the situation. And second, if this idea that India will somehow finally turn on China is based on reality or plain wishful thinking. {Again, the Chinese mind so long accustomed to dealing with the likes of Philippines is unable to grasp the simple fact that the Trade balance is hugely in its favor and it will get hurt if things go south from here between the countries}

Let us be clear about one thing — far from losing control, this has, in fact, been one of the best managed crises by India’s ministry of external affairs. India’s tone has been persistently calm, not threatening action, but sticking to its guns. And for the first time in decades, it is standing up to Chinese bullying and staring it down. The ‘losing control’ and ‘escalating crisis’ narratives seem to be emerging only from a set of strategic commentators whose window seems to be limited to Xinhua and Global Times, and completely devoid of primary research. {There are 3 sets of people. 1st set hate Modi and will like China to help teach him a lesson. The 2nd set are perpetual cowards. If they had their way the would gift Kashmir and settle with Bakistan. They will never have any confidence in India. The 3rd set are China pasand who cannot believe that China could be bested.}

No Escalation
Having toured the area over the last seven days, there seems to be no escalation in troop numbers whatsoever. Landing in Lhasa, one could count about 12-14 Sukhoi family aircraft. And driving past the Shigatse airbase, given the difficulties of observing the tarmac, one could count between three and seven J-10 fighters. The entire Lhasa to Shigatse stretch also showed no signs of increased infantry activity, no spurt in military logistics and only some parade/TV optimised artillery lined up in Lhasa's marshalling yards along the Lhasa-Beijing railway.

Clearly then, the only real ‘escalation’ that can happen is unarmed Chinese border troops coming into and squatting in Indian territory, as suggested by the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs earlier this week — a major ‘climb-down’, if one can call it that — from previous threats, which were ominous simply because of the lack of specificity.

We also have a pattern of similar action across the South China Sea to judge China by. It has resorted to similar ‘sea grabs’ there, depending purely on the fear of the other parties to the dispute to avoid escalating the situation to fatalities. That fear simply doesn’t work with India, for the simple reason that both sides are nuclear-armed. This is particularly important as the situation thus far indicates that while India’s doctrine of deterrence may have failed on the western front (in all fairness, it was never directed against Pakistan), it has had a clear success in the east (where it was directed all along) by putting hard limits on how far China can escalate.

Stuck in Limbo
The diplomatic and strategic costs of escalation for China now are severe, even if Indian warheads can’t reach the Chinese eastern seaboard, taking China down several pegs equating it with rogue revisionist states like Pakistan and destroying the image of it being a more or less ‘responsible’ player on the world stage. All indicators then are that short of an extremely serious miscalculation by the Chinese leadership, the situation has plateaued. The only spikes will be verbal, and that too from the Chinese side.

Which also complicates things for the Chinese leadership when it chooses to de-escalate. It, however, seems to have realised its mistake after its first attempt to do so — claiming that India had reduced the number of troops. The furious denial by India caught it off guard with colleagues in Beijing admitting that they had miscalculated, and not factored in how this would be perceived in India domestically.

All up, we seem stuck in limbo. Escalation is not an option for China. But de-escalation also seems impossible, till public attention is shifted elsewhere. On the other hand, it is high time the Indian media also realise what the MEA and PMO seemed to have long back — that Indian strategic defiance is a non-starter.

China’s massive infusion of finished goods, such as mobile phones, are the core drivers of the Indian economy and impossible to substitute. Equally, if we choose to go against China, we might as well kiss goodbye to any chance of UN Security Council and Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) membership. In this situation, Dokalam is a win, an emphatic win, the best possible under the circumstances, marking the first serious Indian (and arguably global) pushback to Chinese salami tactics.

I disagree with his last but one line ... "China’s massive infusion of finished goods". There is hardly anything except a few items that cannot be substituted from elsewhere obviously at a higher cost be it cellphone, solar panels, etc.

[williams]

https://bharatkarnad.com/2017/08/10/tim ... er-is-now/

Acting defence minister Arun Jaitley said yesterday in Parliament that the country had learned the 1962 lessons well and the Indian armed services were well prepared for a border war. That may be so, but the capability to fight is also dictated by when China will take the initiative to open the first round, and where.

Not sure if the Modi Government is primed to the fact that the 1962 hostilities were started by China just as the October missile crisis got underway and the US was preoccupied by the Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba in that near end-of-the-world crisis. It was evidence of “strategic boldness and tactical caution” that Shivshankar Menon claims, ironically, as the leitmotif of Indian foreign policy! In any case, a ’62 type of international situation is again in the offing — a nuclear crisis now involving the US and North Korea. With an unrestrained Trump warning of “fire and fury of a kind the world has never seen” should Pyongyang again issue a threat to the US — very Chinese Global Times-speak! — to which the Kim Jon-Un replied almost instantly with tripling down on another graver threat, this time directly against the US island of Guam, major military station mid-Pacific — boy, this guy is ballsy!! — Northeast Asia is set for a strategic humdinger. It will be interesting to watch how this pans out, but I am happy to predict and prophecy that it will be Washington that blinks first. The in your face attitude and policy carried out with panache always wins in international affairs, something the Indian government and MEA in particular have been too timid to even contemplate.

Xi Jinping is desperate to save face in whatever small way he can, and considering how far out on the rhetorical limb his regime has gone in incessantly beating the war drum, there WILL be action. Beijing has mentioned armed intrusion into “Kashmir”, which has enough Indian forces in situ, but it may be a way to divert the Indian military’s attention from the LAC. In any case, a North Korea-US fracas will provide Beijing with just the cover to precipitate an incident, use it to escalate to big unit action and then blame the forward Indian units and India for starting the war, forcing the PLA to react. This is what China did in 1962. And then, after some level of hostilities is attained, announce a ceasefire, claim due punishment has been meted out and that a sobered up India has been “taught a lesson”. Except, this time whatever territory the PLA captures they will keep. This is standard Chinese modus operandi, which MEA and the govt’s main China policy advisory arm — the China Study Circle, I am sure, has not warned Modi about.

If the above scenario holds and Chinese initiatory action is imminent, it is “all hands on deck”-moment, but this time the Indian armed forces have to ensure that should PLA start an affray anywhere, the Indian Army will not just fight back at that geographical location but retaliate by opening up fronts in other sectors for operations where PLA is disadvantageously placed with the idea of keeping the captured territory on the LAC for good. Once the army goes into action, the IAF should join right away, and plan on taking out forward Chinese assets as preliminary action, leaving it to PLAAF to escalate if it chooses to. It’d be fun to see the IAF Su-30s slaughter the high-altitude constrained PLAAF fighters taking off from Tibetan bases. The Navy should likewise get right into it and, may be, sink a smaller warship — there are some dozen-odd Chinese navy ships in the Indian Ocean right now. That will draw PLAN subs affording the Indian Akula the opportunity to tail them for a shoot. It is only such disproportionate response that will prove to Beijing that it is not 1962, not all the speechifying by Jaitley, et al.

So far, Modi has done well to talk little, hold firm on the ground. But I sense complacency creeping in with things having gone well, so far. Hope he pulls the govt out of any such stupor and musters the confidence and the guts to expressly task the Indian armed forces for rapid and intense counteraction across the LAC, in the air, and the Indian Ocean. Passive defensive-mindedness has been the bane of the Indian govt and military to-date. Time to correct this impression, hence also time that Gen Bipin Rawat, Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, and Admiral Sunil Lanba put their respective forces on high alert, because something is going to happen. If Beijing behaves the way it has always done, hostilities are round the corner, and they better be absolutely ready to respond aggressively. The Prime Minister will be well advised to, perhaps, hint at another Himalayan rumble in the offing in his Independence Day speech if not earlier , and thus prepare the people and the apparatus of state for the “war” coming down the pike.

Simply put, China should NOT be permitted under any circumstances to save face and get away with claiming it has taught India a lesson. Because that will mean Modi having egg on his face. The Indian government and military should ensure that it is Beijing that takes home the lesson that this is, in fact, the “New India” they are now dealing with, not the same old, same old.

[pankajs]

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... n-4792691/
Mind games at Doklam
Sanjaya Baru -- The writer is Distinguished Fellow, United Service Institution of India, New Delhi [How did this fellow get into USI?]

India is no Philippines. In the Philippines, China managed to declare victory by convincing President Rodrigo Duterte that friendship with China is a better bet than friendship with the United States. China subdued Philippines without fighting.

The driver of Chinese strategy at this stage of its development lies in the yawning gap between its geo-economic power and geo-political capability. China has, without doubt, become an economic superpower. However, it is as yet far from becoming a geo-political super-power. Indeed, China may never acquire the geo-political influence and reach that Great Britain enjoyed in the 19th century and the United States of America did in the 20th, even though it may have already surpassed the geo-economic clout the two major powers enjoyed in the heyday of their empires. China’s “empire” does not as yet extend beyond its own claimed borders and those of its two principle allies — North Korea and Pakistan.

Most strategic analysts make the mistake of imagining that China has already been able to convert its geo-economic power, as the world’s largest trading nation with huge investible dollar surpluses, into military might and geo-political clout. This would be a simplistic understanding of how economic power gets translated into political power. The yawning gap that stares China in its face is its limited geo-political reach, despite the so-called Eurasian alliance with Russia. More to the point, China’s military capability is still limited. As the annual defence publication, Military Balance, published by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, shows, the US still spends more on defence then the combined defence spending of the next 10 powers, including Russia, China, Germany, France, UK, Japan, Saudi Arabia, India, South Korea and Brazil. So how has China responded to this gap between economic might and political power? By buying influence. The Belt-Road Initiative is the latest spending programme aimed at buying friendships. It comes in the wake of the creation of financial institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the promotion of bilateral economic assistance programmes with neighbours and other developing economies. There is nothing new about this. All economically well-off nations have used what has been dubbed cheque-book diplomacy and China does so too. Apart from funding government-to-government lending, China has also been able to create global companies and global brands that have contributed to Chinese soft power. There is no denying the fact that China has been able to convert its economic might into commercial and technological capability. In short, China has emerged as a trading and a knowledge power.

However, precisely because China has not yet converted this geo-economic power into military capability and geo-political clout, it has used its economic and financial muscle to win friends and influence people. More importantly, China has used its geo-economic hard and soft power to launch a well-funded global psywar aimed at projecting its viewpoint across the world and influencing the responses to it. It has been able to use even the Western media to its advantage by successfully propagating certain views. For example, in the 1990s, when China was busy seeking and securing investment and know-how from Japan, it never made an issue of the treatment of Chinese women by Japanese soldiers in the first half of the 20th century. Once China no longer needed Japanese investment it began demanding Japan’s apology for past sins. Many have come to believe that China has a legitimate grievance against Japan, forgetting the fact that this grievance was never aired when China was Japan’s largest bilateral aid and investment recipient.

Strategic analysts around the world often like to quote Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu who famously said, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” This is precisely what China has been trying to do across the Asia-Pacific region and it will seek to do in the Indian Ocean region as well, at least in part because it has the economic capability to “subdue” but not yet the military might or geopolitical clout to fight and win. In the Doklam stand-off, China has tried to deploy its media to create a war psychosis, seeking to draw world attention to it and exert psychological pressure on India. The entire Doklam episode, including the behaviour of some Chinese diplomats in Delhi, has till now followed a textbook psywar strategy. So far it has yielded few results for China, thanks to India’s wise and calm response till now.

India is no Philippines. In the Philippines, China managed to declare victory by convincing President Rodrigo Duterte that friendship with China is a better bet than friendship with the United States. China subdued Philippines without fighting. China is now trying to exert similar pressure on other neighbouring countries. Two years after the passing away of its founder-leader, Singapore has become a new target for China’s psywar. China enjoys both economic and political influence in the island but the republic has inherited a proud tradition of independent thinking from its iconic founder Lee Kuan Yew. After making a lot of noise about building the Kra canal through Thailand aimed at ending Singapore’s strategic advantage in the Malacca Straits, China is now tom-toming the idea of a railway link through Malaysia with a similar end in mind. These are all mind games aimed at getting Singapore to kow-tow like Duterte did.

As part of a wider strategy of weakening Asean unity, picking off one small neighbour after another, China is twisting many arms in Southeast Asia not by using military force but by threatening to deploy economic weapons if its economic incentives fail to secure the intended response. China’s dogged pursuit of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement should also be viewed in this context.

Finally, North Korea. Here China is running with the hares and hunting with the hounds with the aim of underscoring its strategic relevance to Asia-Pacific security. Here, China’s behaviour is no different from that of the US in the past. Make oneself relevant to the security of a region by first making the region insecure. But the real point is that much of that insecurity is in the minds of the people. Unlike in Asia to India’s West, where people are actually dying due to conflict, in the Asia to India’s East the battles are as yet being staged in peoples’ minds. China’s armed forces may not engage India’s at Doklam but they will continue with their mind games aimed to get India, as indeed all its neighbours, to kow-tow, like Duterte did.

[pankajs]

BTW, pushing in more soldiers into the area is India signalling to China that it in for the long haul and if needed willing to fight it out.

No war talk no chest thumping just pushing more soldiers into the area. In addition CAP patrols by IAF.

[g.sarkar]

To gain or keep face, China must win this war decisively and convincingly with shock and awe for all to see. That means large tracts of land must come under its control, large amounts of Indian soldiers must be killed or captured, large amounts of arms and ammunition must be captured and displayed. China can then be magnanimous and return 10% of the land won and show the Asian fence sitters what happens if you defy the Liz. All will then fall in line and bend the knee.
This is quite different from the missile strike in Syria where the US was just sending a message. Khan has money to throw around as long as US lives are not lost, it is not bothered. You cannot compare the two. If China attacks with a large barrage of missiles and does not follow up with boots on the ground and then win, it has lost. If it compromises, it has lost and others will test its resolve again. China has a lot to lose in Asia, if it loses face so early in the game of becoming the sole super power in the area it is the end. It cannot then bully and subdue smaller nations. If China does nothing, it has lost. If India does nothing and just holds on, it has won. Status quo will demonstrate China’s weakness in Asia and no one will follow a loser, especially one that is so uncompromising and unreasonable. No one will pay the emperor tributes of gold and virgins anymore, it cannot exploit so ruthlessly anymore, no more being the lord of the manor and sit with the white man on equal terms and it will be left just with pariah states like Pak and NK in its camp. But if it attacks India, even in the best of circumstances it is risky, war brings uncertain results and results can not be easily predicted. Going just by numbers Arabs should have won and Israel lost. Eleven has a dilemma on his hands and a short time of 2-3 months to solve it.
Gautam

[UlanBatori]

Some Indian portal should post an article citing Anal-e-sis by a Senior Fellow From the National Institute For Total War (on Intelligent Thought). Saying that the Indian government should wait until the imminent disintegration of the PRC into Hanistan, Liberated Mongolia, Islamic Republic of Uiguristan and North Dharmasala, and then claim a UNSC permanent seat. Cite "disturbing" reports of revolt against the Xi regime by "top PLA and PLAC commanders who spoke on condition of anonymity" for his weak and ineffective response to the US hostility against fliendry North Korea,

[Rudradev]

To gain or keep face, China must win this war decisively and convincingly with shock and awe for all to see. That means large tracts of land must come under its control, large amounts of Indian soldiers must be killed or captured, large amounts of arms and ammunition must be captured and displayed. China can then be magnanimous and return 10% of the land won and show the Asian fence sitters what happens if you defy the Liz. All will then fall in line and bend the knee.

Gautam ji,

I don't know if this is necessarily true.

Today we live in an era of relativism and fake news, more so than ever before. The more noise you are able to generate convincingly across multiple channels, the more your version of the "truth" becomes accepted as factual truth. So even if China doesn't kill/capture any significant number of Indian soldiers or take any significant area of land from us, they will attempt to fabricate a "victory" in the aftermath. They claim to have won the 1979 war against Vietnam after all.

That's not anything new for us. Many BRF-ites have been fighting the citizens' propaganda war for donkeys' years now... since the days of dial-up modems and bulletin boards. We realized right around the time of Pokhran and Kargil that the Pakis (and their agents) controlled the international "news" narrative to an alarming extent, and that their assertions, widely accepted as factual in the international (mainly Western) media, had no connection whatsoever to the truth. Regarding Kashmir, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, Pakistani "victories" in wars against India, or anything else.

The Pakistani propaganda advantage continued (though very gradually diminishing) throughout the first half of the 2000s, through 9/11 and Parakram periods. Only around the middle of the last decade, bolstered by (1) India's crystallizing economic success (2) increasing realization in Western establishments that Pakistan was playing a double-game in Afghanistan and with sponsoring international terrorism in general, did this begin to change in our favour.

It took that long to level the playing field with the Pakis. Even now, it isn't completely level. Strong anti-India, anti-Hindu, anti-Modi and pro-Islamist biases continue to disfigure most reportage in the Western mainstream media... BBC, Economist, NYT, WaPo, CNN, etc.... with ample help from fifth-columnists in the political classes and media within India itself. Even now, the truth about Chinese proliferation to Pakistan and North Korea is a closely guarded secret from the world. The only thing that's changed after the US-India CNCA is that the "Non-Proliferationist" diatribes against India have receded somewhat into the background, relative to their shrill pitch in the late 1990s-early 2000s.

Today, in the field of citizens' propaganda war, we are talking about setting our version of the truth head-to-head against the Chinese control of the narrative. The PRC with its huge resources, with its multi-level relationships embedded in all spheres of Western public discourse (financial, economic, political, academic, media) since the Nixon-Kissinger days, is a far more formidable opponent than the Pakis (via people like Mansoor Ijaz, Shirin Tahir-Kheli, Maleeha Lodhi, Ghulam Nabi Fai, Farooq Kathwari etc.) ever were. I am not saying it isn't doable, but it will require a far greater and longer-lasting effort than what I myself have been witness to vis-a-vis Pakistan since the late 1990s.

Of course we can always say "who cares what the West thinks... we know that we won, and Satyameva Jayate". Fair enough. But like it or not, the international discourse (what is believed in Nepal and Sri Lanka, let alone ASEAN/West Asia/Europe/Africa etc.) continues to be dominated by the mainstream Western media's narrative. And that is what I surmise your post is talking about (when you say "all will fall in line and bend the knee" etc.)

[ashish raval]

"India is a dog. Whatever we do to you, you will first bark and snarl, but then accept and come back wagging your tail. The problem now is what we can do to you is also very limited.”

Lol those tinpots who talk in metaphor should also know this fact. Both friendship and revenge of dog is severe. They die for you if you are friend but they will fight till death if you are an enemy ...there is a Sanskrit saying that there are two things that someone has to put up when having a dog in backyard a) licking your face and b) biting your backside..you choose which one you prefer..lol

[g.sarkar]

Rudradevji,
I read your post carefully, but I do not agree. I do agree that India can not compete with the propaganda put up by the West at this time. Our own media is to a great extent compromised to the West and to a lesser extent to the Lizard. But who listens to Chinese propaganda? No one in the West does. China may say it has won the war with Vietnam but who accepts it? Nepal, Burma, Sri Lanka and others may support China against India not because they do not know the true state of affairs, but because of the fear of China and its might. Coming to Pakistan, the West supported it for its own good reasons. It will continue to support it as long this serves their purposes. Right now however they are abandoning the Pak cause as they have become a failure in every way. But let me tell you one thing clearly, everyone knows what the true state of affairs is. To win, China has to defeat India and this will be observed by everybody. Propaganda can not hide defeat and make it a victory. All major countries, US, Russia, France, Germany, China have their intelligence services that tell them what is the true state of affairs. Propaganda can not hide these facts. Now, as China is emerging as a power to recon with, the West may not support it as they did when it was encouraged to be a counter weight to Russia. By SCS and its man made islands, they have pissed off a lot of countries, and no one gives any country a free ride to the top. A loss with India will bring down the Chinese by a notch, and this will be welcomed by many.
Gautam

[devesh]

Nightwatch from August 10:

That commentary and the series of high level statements signified the activation of China’s crisis management system and that the leadership was in crisis management mode for India.



Based on that judgment, NightWatch wrote that within a week the Chinese would issue another warning. That has now happened.



We advised Readers that the use of fire metaphors would signify that China was not bluffing. The use of the metaphors of fire and getting burned mean that the Chinese leadership have seen no reason to alter their decision to conduct a limited military action.



We herein repeat our expectation that next week India will receive a final warning giving it a last chance to avoid a military clash. If there is no change, we expect that clash on or after 17 August. Events in northeast Asia could alter the timing.

Ignore the "chance" verbiage. Main thing is they're predicting Xi is going to start firing soon. India also evacuated civilians.

[g.sarkar]

Deveshji, Do you have the webpage address for Nightwatch?
Gautam

[ramana]

Devesh,

Xposting:


I think China real.target is demilitarizing Guam. This is j8st like the Soviet Union wanted the removal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey and created Cuban missiles crisis. NoKo plays the role of Cuba now.

[DavidD]

The Chinese language is very metaphor and adage based, formal Chinese even more so. For example, instead of saying "I'll make an example of him", a Chinese would say "I'll kill the chicken to scare the monkey." All languages have metaphors and adages, but comparing English and Chinese at least, Chinese incorporates them far, far more often even colloquially.

[SriKumar]

To gain or keep face, China must win this war decisively and convincingly with shock and awe for all to see. That means large tracts of land must come under its control, large amounts of Indian soldiers must be killed or captured, large amounts of arms and ammunition must be captured and displayed.

Somehow I doubt this is going to happen. In the unlikely scenario that China manages a major military victory, its economy and trade will be devastated by India, and hollowed out from the inside. If China launches a war and it looks like they are gaining, IMHO, India will escalate, if not escalate right from the get-go (remember IAF has been asked to prepare for a short intense war). India will strike deep, including at their maritime trade. This was the lesson of 1962- no playing nice by limiting air force (and now navy). Once their trade infrastructure is targeted, their economy, which seems to be built on unlimited printing of renmimbi, over-capacity, huge amounts of defaulted loans, fake books, non-performing assets and other similar things) will start to collapse (and if poster deans is to be believed, it will happen very quickly). If one single bullet is fired, India's target will be the Chinese economic edifice (probably heavily compromised as it stands today) and trade infrastructure. So, even if China has some sort of a military victory (and I cannot see how any 'victory' would last through a winter when they have to maintain supply lines over Tibet) their economy and their plan to reach glorious heights of civilization and dominate the world will end very quickly, in a matter of weeks if planned right. China cannot defend all their targets, all the time. And they have plenty of targets. Loss of face will be the least of their problems if Indian planners go for their trade jugular. CPEC, and likely OBOR, will be history.

In my reading, I dont think India has a choice to fight any other way. The only choices for India were: Let them build in Doka La and Dokalam platea and look the other way while they put pressure on Arunachal 10 years later, or challenge them today- while asking for a peaceful resolution. A challenge means you are prepared for war, whichever way it goes. Look at what has China been doing in the last 30 years of peace....declaring one area after another as disputed, and walking in (wherever it can) and building infrastructure (wherever allowed). At this rate, they'll position themselves for Arunachal Pradesh, what they recently called 'South Tibet' in about 10 years. And then on to Nagaland and other places (the new South Tibet) because some Dalai Lama in 1x th century took a vacation there, and is therefore a part of Tibet. And the cycle repeats. Either way, they get to grab land. This is my reading anyway.

[Dileep]

Hmm.... in 1998 buddha smiled, we got e-khanomic sanctions, which resulted in growth in many strategic sectors.

In 2017, if the lizard farts, I predict the result is growth in mainstream industry. I am fed up of importing mundane stuff that could have been built in Peenya (if the Peenyans had some motivation to build them better than the slit-eyes to begin with)

[shiv]

^^^
I see this very often. why posters are avoiding "ji" like plague? True , I left Desh long ago. May be I am missing something.

Actually there is no need to avoid ji. In India propriety demands the formality of ji. The "informality" of a first name is reserved for different situations.

For example in India if my friend's wife is called Nirmala, I would call her Nirmala-ji (or in Kannada "Nirmala-avare" )or some such thing. If she objected and said "Hey call me Nirmala, or worse "Call me Nimmi" - in India that is a sign of familiarity and a closeness that should not exist between me and the wife of my friend unless she is my sister, cousin or close relative

One of the early Macaulayite accusations of Indian culture was lack of expressions of politeness like "Please", "excuse me" and "Thank you". That is the delusion of a colonized mind (which I grew out of 2 decades ago) . When someone calls me "shivji" I don't object because the term is not obsequiousness but simple formality for a person you don't know well enough to be on "first person" terms -i.e. "aap" rather than "tum"

These Indian ideas of propriety are wiped clean after 3 months in the west and people object to "ji" and ask for familiarity where familiarity does not exist and is therefore fake familiarity. Sorry OT

[shiv]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 025495.cms

A new possibility (or two) now comes to mind.

China has provoked India to do a Parakram. They will sit on their asses and do nothing for say 6 months. After a while Parakram fatigue will set in and India will de induct troops. In the meanwhile China will gradually build up forces in several areas.

We need to watch out for the appearance of new military camps along the usual areas and signs of mobilization. The Chinese could establish a "new normal" of larger troop presence. However this will also put strain on Chinese logistics and there will have to be improvements in Chinese roads in areas where they are currently not upto scratch.

"Punishment" of India can come later - maybe 6 months or 1 year down the line.

But then again we need to keep building forces slowly and steadily so that if perchance Pakistan becomes a relative non threat, China will face a deadly force from India

[Iyersan]

Devesh,

Xposting:


I think China real target is demilitarizing Guam. This is just like the Soviet Union wanted the removal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey and created Cuban missiles crisis. NoKo plays the role of Cuba now.

Ramana Sir
But the situation is slightly different for china. Both conflicts can happen on Chinese borders and it cannot use one to mask the other

[Singha]

the india today war simulation supports your POV and pegs the start of real war in spring 2018

hope everyone has seen this video
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/imr- ... 24139.html

[shiv]

Ignore the "chance" verbiage. Main thing is they're predicting Xi is going to start firing soon. India also evacuated civilians.

Nightwatch has been around for a long long time. But the internet and general awareness has grown, but nightwatch is still living in the past.

Forget Intel agencies - even Google/Bing and other sources will soon show signs of increased Chinese mobilization. And for the Chinese to attack in Walong, Tawang or Doklam they will have to beef up at Ngari and Rutog or we will grab something from them in Ladakh/Aksai Hind.

See this video of information on where conflict can occur:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNqlLSUg5p8

Without signs of such preparation the Chinese are unlikely to attack. I want to see one news item of Chinese mobilization. because of geography the Chinese do not maintain the kind of "forward presence" that India has to maintain.