Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 12 Aug 2017 22:28

Its been around a while, sort of junior Stratfor, difference being they offer daily updates. They obviously have military/intelligence chaiwaala/panwaala connections.

williams · Post by **williams** » 12 Aug 2017 23:07

Summary of possible Chinese strategy so far:
1. Try psyops using bad poetic english - Indian response - smile and stay quiet. Keep the powder dry.
2. Land attack/occupy in another spot - Indian response - Be alert on all potential spots and be prepared to attack/occupy a different spot of our own choosing.
3. Use missiles, air power to start initial attack - Indian response - Counter attack with missiles and air power. Pursue Naval blockade.
4. Do nothing until winter - Indian response - Dig in for a long winter.
5. Do something crazy - assassinations, Paki nuclear terrorism etc, etc - Indian response - Be ready for any war time scenario as per the classified war book (that includes crazy scenarios)

From the above I don't see how the Chinese are going to win or retain H&D. Most Dhoti shivering on our end is about the fear of internal commie/leftie sabotage of Indian response. That is not going to happen with Modi/Doval in the helm of affairs. Chinese do not have any friends in the international fora. Most powers small and big will simply support India or stay neutral. I think this incident has burst the Chinese superpower bubble and it is the beginning of the end of Chinese bully tactics in the region.

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Aug 2017 23:12

Amoghvarsha wrote:We need a clear line of succession like Khan.

Read the Indian constitution. You did not pay attention to your social studies classes in middle/high school.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Aug 2017 23:21

Funny thing is, Naranja Bandar might pre-empt lizard in NoKo. Lizard is quoted as saying that they WILL GET INVOLVED if NB makes pre-emptive ishtrike. NB has declared that ***threat*** is enough to trigger isntrike. So Lizard has a problem. If Lizard gets involved there, the air force has to rush to that coast. If they start the war at Doklam and THEN have to rush back to East, it will be an unparalleled opportunity to liberate everything west of 100-deg. E. Long.

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Aug 2017 23:29

Lisa wrote:Indian order of precedence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_or ... precedence

^^ The above is for officiating roles., not for governance or line of succession. It is like precedence sitting at a table.

President is the supreme commander of the forces. The role of conducting the war is delegated to PM/Defence minister in consultation with the cabinet and the armed forces during war. The forces can continue reporting to the president and continue fighting even if the cabinet completely ceases to exist. After president there is vice-president followed by CJI.

Administratively., HM is the senior most member of the cabinet and can take over in place of PM. The third in succession is the LS Speaker. Yes. India is a democracy and LS speaker is the voice of the people. After that assuming the cabinet works cohesively - DM followed by FM generally in time of war., but again here the majority coalition parliamentary party affairs president also has a significant role., since the cabinet can be dissolved and reformed and the precedent of the president of the ruling coalition or majority party can become the PM.

Indian constitution is purposely ambiguous on the line of succession. Partly because a stated line of succession actually makes it a target for manipulation. An ambiguous line of succession is difficult to penetrate.

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Aug 2017 23:31

UlanBatori wrote:Funny thing is, Naranja Bandar might pre-empt lizard in NoKo. Lizard is quoted as saying that they WILL GET INVOLVED if NB makes pre-emptive ishtrike. NB has declared that ***threat*** is enough to trigger isntrike. So Lizard has a problem. If Lizard gets involved there, the air force has to rush to that coast. If they start the war at Doklam and THEN have to rush back to East, it will be an unparalleled opportunity to liberate everything west of 100-deg. E. Long.

Lizard eating its own tail!

All NoKo has to do is another missile test and China will be caught with its chaddi down in multi-front war. Not just doklam, but in indo-china sea as well and of course the fire on its east!

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 12 Aug 2017 23:40

^^ Dishaji,

Thank you for pointing out the difference. Just for your information, came across this list originally in the Asley Trellis book India's "Emerging Nuclear Posture". It appears that I am as wrong as he was!

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 12 Aug 2017 23:45

So it seems that the NK crisis and Doklam one are interlinked. China cannot act on Doklam for carrot top might take advantage, similarly if China gets involved in NK, India could conceivably take back occupied territories, eg Aksai Hind etc. So the question is will the Modi Doval combo have the fortitude to take advantage of the situation, should an opportunity present. Incidentally, this is similar to the two front war situation that India has to deal with all the time.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Aug 2017 00:22

karma. Let's hope it all works out for the best, and that IA/IAF/IN is prepared and led by the best. Situation has potential.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 13 Aug 2017 00:26

Even recovering the fishtail areas and closing the spear tip at Doklam would give us enough benefit. Getting Aksai Chin would be an amazing win.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Aug 2017 00:31

From what I understand the Chinese will not protect NK but will stand in the way of USN and USAF launching an offensive on NK. They want the US to take the first shot against Chinese forces. The US does not want to shoot at Chinese forces either, but if the NK thing goes out of hand and shooting with China happens, then what will happen in the Himalayas? At that point India should take an offensive to liberate Lhasa.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 13 Aug 2017 00:36

This is empty bluster by China, China can barely match India, and they want to pick a fight with the USA ?

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 13 Aug 2017 00:59

Folks, posted another blog on the quality of the PLA soldiers. This one is about an incident in South Sudan where the PLA peacekeepers ran away from their posts, abandoning their weapons upon coming under fire.
In the end, it was the Indian Peacekeepers from the Kumaon Regiment that restored the situation!

Blog Link

Twitter Link

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 13 Aug 2017 01:41

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ina-border
India's Military Said to Increase Alert Along Tense China Border
By Nc Bipindra
August 12, 2017, 4:29 AM PDT
Up to 50,000 soldiers have been put on notice, officials say
Move is latest in eight-week standoff at remote tri-junction
India has increased its military alert along its eastern border with China, placing around 50,000 soldiers on notice amid an eight-week-long stand-off with Chinese troops near a three-way junction between Bhutan, China and India, people familiar with the matter said.
......

Gautam

DrRatnadip · Post by **DrRatnadip** » 13 Aug 2017 02:10

kancha wrote:Folks, posted another blog on the quality of the PLA soldiers. This one is about an incident in South Sudan where the PLA peacekeepers ran away from their posts, abandoning their weapons upon coming under fire.
In the end, it was the Indian Peacekeepers from the Kumaon Regiment that restored the situation!

Blog Link

Twitter Link

This shows real nature of chini soldiers.. Eleven is well aware of this fact hence only fighting war with gober times..Thanks for posting sir..

hshukla · Post by **hshukla** » 13 Aug 2017 02:18

There is lot of discussion in past few threads with almost unanimous conclusion that India is better placed...and all but ruling out the Nuke option.
However I could think of one thing for which India has not got a better answer and that is if PLA attacks power centers like Delhi with CMs....even if we reply; since their side being a cold desert the numbers will be 1000:1 in their favour. Which with their media they can tom tom and have a face saver.

We need to get an Indian flotilla in S China sea under the garb of N korea crisis; showing solidarity with our Japanese and S Korean friends and at their invitation; parked in Osaka.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Aug 2017 02:29

So you will take revenge for Delhi 1000:1 by sailing to Japan and back?

BTW, China has declared Dokalam area its territory and that it will expel India for there. Not their exact words but the gist and it has been repeated like upwards of 100 times. So how will launching CMs on Delhi help them save face when IA is still at Doklam?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Aug 2017 02:43

The most probable attack is one directly on the troops at Doklam. Just blast the heck out of the land behind the Indians, and on that slope to prevent reinforcements. Most of their men will run backwards, leaving ground open for them to strike the Indian line.

Surely they have enough accuracy to land shells/missiles with 1m CEP from 2 miles away?
I am not saying that India cannot retaliate, but the above is the most obvious Lizard behavior.

Will India then seek to neutralize the nbd and take the whole plateau and its environs?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Aug 2017 02:51

The problem, as the Chinese see it, is that India has occupied land that they claim as theirs. So all effort on their part will be to recover that land to save face. Attacking IA at Doklam is one option. Grabbing land in another sectors is another option. CMs on support infra like airfields, etc is par for the course as it will help then peruse their military objective.

Lobbing a bunch of CMs on Delhi will not help them recover Doklam unless they really go all out raining Ballistic missiles. But then it will be an all out war.

BTW you don't launch CMs/BMs on population centers in a limited war. If China plans a limited war forget Delhi they will not even target Gauhati or even Gangtok population centers. Military installations are fair game.

nam · Post by **nam** » 13 Aug 2017 03:10

UlanBatori wrote:The most probable attack is one directly on the troops at Doklam. Just blast the heck out of the land behind the Indians, and on that slope to prevent reinforcements. Most of their men will run backwards, leaving ground open for them to strike the Indian line.

Surely they have enough accuracy to land shells/missiles with 1m CEP from 2 miles away?
I am not saying that India cannot retaliate, but the above is the most obvious Lizard behavior.

Will India then seek to neutralize the nbd and take the whole plateau and its environs?

We will cut off chumbi valley. The chini can sit on dolam plateau without supplies eating cruise missile debries, while we pound chumbi daily.

I have seen questions on what will India do if chini does this or that..

Probably we need to ask, once chinis have done their thing what is going to save their border units when 12 divisions and IAF is going to fall on them.

williams · Post by **williams** » 13 Aug 2017 03:41

nam wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:The most probable attack is one directly on the troops at Doklam. Just blast the heck out of the land behind the Indians, and on that slope to prevent reinforcements. Most of their men will run backwards, leaving ground open for them to strike the Indian line.

Surely they have enough accuracy to land shells/missiles with 1m CEP from 2 miles away?
I am not saying that India cannot retaliate, but the above is the most obvious Lizard behavior.

Will India then seek to neutralize the nbd and take the whole plateau and its environs?
We will cut off chumbi valley. The chini can sit on dolam plateau without supplies eating cruise missile debries, while we pound chumbi daily.

I have seen questions on what will India do it chini does this or that..

Probably we need to ask, once chinis have done their thing what is going to save their border units when 12 divisions and IAF is going to fall on them.

I asked the same question with one of the Chaiwalas on the supposed CM advantage Chinese have. His reply was that we will not only attack with Brahmos but there is enough Prithvi II and III that can be used with conventional warheads and good CEP to payback in kind. If they have the audacity to attack Delhi then we can even use Agni with conventional payload and create a big mess in heartland of Beijing. So any missile attack on our political HQ is a big escalatory step that will be a lose-lose situation for both the countries.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 13 Aug 2017 03:45

Anyone want to take a shot on predicting the end game and why. I dont see an all out war scenario.
1. China attacks (localized to Doklam)
2. China attacks (localized elsewhere)
3. Both sides withdraw once winter sets in
4. India attacks first

I personally think option 3 is the most likely, but China will have learnt its lesson and will try to pay us back at a later date. What would be disruptive is if India sets the ball rolling (option 4), either in Doklam or elsewhere. We at BRF have not given that scenario much thought.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Aug 2017 04:07

Probably best that way. India does not attack anyone. But 2 seconds after someone attacks, is another story.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Aug 2017 04:13

India encourages Bhutan to diss the bully

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 13 Aug 2017 05:28

My 50 cents: If China does not go all out, they may come out the loser in this. India is not pussy-footing around this time.

China can talk about a limited war, but how can they be sure that India wants to keep it limited after China starts shooting? After 1962, India did not limit itself in 1965 against Pakistan and opened a new front on a settled border with Pakistan, in return for an attack on an un-settled border (LoC). And China is an even bigger threat. Limiting itself will only help China. India will not limit itself to what China desires.

India may withdraw only in return for some guarantees like they do not probe the border with their 'patrols' and start building in 'disputed areas' and all that nonsense.... but there have been several comments from India (Swaraj herself?) saying that India will talk after both parties withdraw their troops. So, this may be the only option short of a war.

UlanBatori wrote:Probably best that way. India does not attack anyone. But 2 seconds after someone attacks, is another story.

Yes, in fact one of the criticisms of Nehru's time was that he placed Indian troops beyond the border, into China territory in so-called 'forward positions' thus giving the Chinese a legal casus belli (not that they needed one). China can fire the first shot if they want. One second later India unloads on them.... is the best scenario for India.

However, what does India do when China is executing a massive troop buildup near a border region they can grab? Should India still wait for the troops to amass, take positions, fire the first shot before India reacts. Maybe something like this happened in Sum Durong Chu '87 (and more recently in Chumar, in 2014). In the past, India has reacted to such situations by putting in more troops than the Chinese. In Chumar, it seems the number was 9x (in the news report is to be believed).

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Aug 2017 05:48

How do one know if the Chini Mizzles rushing toward Delhi are Nuke tipped r not ? I Don't think Chinni have the guts to take chance on this going Nuclear.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Aug 2017 05:51

* Deleted *

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Aug 2017 05:53

Massive visible buildup for invasion is of course a problem. Best bet is to get the air fauj ready to hit their supply lines and go around them instead of confronting head-on. Somewhere though the invaders have to be slowed down before they reach Indian rear supply lines.
Awesome video! Loved that robot with the gun.

brvarsh · Post by **brvarsh** » 13 Aug 2017 06:24

Why is only attacking Delhi escalatory? Why not attacking Siligudi not ecalatory? Why Chinese firing one bullet on a defending Indian soldier not escalatory? Drawing the line what is escalatory and what is not is a sign of strategic weakness that we must not be suffering from.

Sanju · Post by **Sanju** » 13 Aug 2017 06:27

brvarsh wrote:Why is only attacking Delhi escalatory? Why not attacking Siligudi not ecalatory? Why Chinese firing one bullet on a defending Indian soldier not escalatory? Drawing the line what is escalatory and what is not is a sign of strategic weakness that we must not be suffering from.

Well said^

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Aug 2017 06:27

If entire line of soldiers does a "Peeche Muh!" and moons the other side, would this be escalatory I wonder.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 13 Aug 2017 06:36

^^^......errr that would indeed be 'ass-calatory'.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Aug 2017 06:36

You are the key decision maker in the upper echelon of Chinese power corridors. It is your call to start the limited war in the Himalayas. You know logistics is against you. Indians are superiors when it comes to Himalayas.

If Indians hold for a week or 10 days, that's it , it becomes harder to get a victory. You know India can block Malacca straits. Your options are to capture territory and announce victory in 3 or 4 days and withdraw. Else you will be painfully excited.

Another option is to use your dog Pakistan to cause trouble on India's western borders or let lose a dirty bomb.That escalation will drag rest of the World. At least America.

So why would you start a war when things do not pretty for you?

Remember if you fail you are doomed, as vultures around you will shred you into pieces.

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 13 Aug 2017 06:38

I think this is relevant to this thread albeit slightly OT. Kirk Lippold, the former Commander of USS Cole makes a cogent case for targeting the real villain, China. Speaks with some clarity on Chinese perfidy in nuclear proliferation and the danger from its vassal states.

williams · Post by **williams** » 13 Aug 2017 06:47

Some of the discussion we are having here is been talked about by some ex top brass. Seems like BRF is on the same page

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 13 Aug 2017 07:13

In fact they may ask their munna to conduct terrorist strikes around Independence day so that side of the border can be 'legitimately' heated up and still be under the threshold of CSD, who knows if this threshold is at a higher level due to Chinese LAC on alert

Anyways the heliborne insertion in the war exercise video was just too good, wonder what our response times are at this alert level should the Chinese choppers intrude and if things go south they may just use rocket artillery to flatten that area assuming Indian forces are countering this small probing heliborne task force with nine times ratio they can still claim victory on bodybag count

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Aug 2017 07:16

Regardless of who fires first, know that each side will claim the other started it. Fog of war and all that.

I have no doubt India will not start this. Wonder what would happen if we did, though. A series of small escalatory steps would mean both sides could claim with plausibility the other guys are the culprits.

'2 seconds after the first cheeni bullet enters Indian/Bhutanese airspace' makes perfect sense but expect PRC to blame IA first (unless they use mijjiles or some such shock-aww tactics first).

Time will tell, window is closing. But hey, door may open.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 13 Aug 2017 07:26

[quote="Prem"] * Deleted *
400% Cringeworthy video!

It is a mish mash of old videos, and US military video. None of these has anything to do with any recent exercise.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 13 Aug 2017 07:34

One thing we can be certain of, is that India is not about to start anything.
India has hardly spoken anything officially.

Chinese official media is in war mode. If it was upto them, they would have won by now - real life is less dramatic

If China loses territory here or in any other area, it will mean catastrophe for President Xi, the Communist Party.
There is no way for China to win this, India will dominate any escalation, test the chinese every step of the way.
China has poor and tenuous supply lines, they are surrounded on 3 sides in the Chumbi Valley. Those soldiers in the valley will be killed in 2-3 days.

If India uses its airforce, all of Tibet will be under threat. China can't deploy enough fighters, they don't have enough airfields close enough, they don't have enough refuelers. Any offensive by china, which escalates is bad bad news for them.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 13 Aug 2017 07:39

China thinks it is going to win a war with India with Hotan, Kunshaxiang, Lahsa, Shigaste and Linzhi? India has, hold your breath: 16 odd airbases in vicinity of the Indo-Tibetan border.
The sheer number of fighters, bombers that India can deploy is twice that of what China can over Tibet.

The PLA will be forced against better council by the Communist party into war.