Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

[Atish]

The RBi has a very good reputation globally as a a Central Bank. But i was very disappointed to learn that as a regulator of the financial system it is a very corrupt and incompetent org. The financial regs in India at least on wealth management side make no sense at all. Getting any license from RBI requires a ton of bribes and paperwork and time.

[kmkraoind]

Maharashtra: Shops, hotels can now run round the clock in state - Indian Express

The provisions of the new bill apply to shops, residential hotels, restaurants, theatres and amusement places to which the provisions of the Factories Act do not apply. It also applies to establishments, which include businesses involved in banking, stocks, medical practice, architects, engineers, accountants, tax consultants and professional consultants. There are over 38.5 lakh such establishments in the state.

[Hari Seldon]

A data-driven look at DeMo effects (based on the second economic survey)

Early Trends Suggest India Has Won Its War On Cash (Swarajya)

[hanumadu]

Iirc many on the forum were predicting a much higher reduction in circulation, apparently they have been proven wrong.

From the Swarajyamag article.

Cash as a share of GDP also declined by about 1.6 percentage points, down from 11.3 per cent of GDP to 9.7 per cent. Cash as a share of M1, which represents liquid portions of money supply, also declined by five percentage points.

[Supratik]

That is more than 50 billion dollars.

[Rahul M]

India's Demonetisation Leads To A 24% Rise In Tax Returns Filed, 42% Increase in Advance Collections

I do not have expertise in this area. But the data seems to be all over the place. There is this guy (who clearly has an axe to grind) who has a whole thread about this:

For e.g., the below link shows 2.85 crore for tax filers in 2013.
https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/894742631799865344

the twitter chap clearly has an axe to grind and is lying through his teeth. (since I think he is smart enough to understand the crucial omission he made)
year 2016-17 data means that submitted by July 31 2016, pre demo, pre GST. CBDT is talking about this years data i.e assessment year 2017-18, which is yet to be made public, as the last date for submission of returns was just a week back. the number will only go up since people can submit returns till march 2019 (with late fees).

[Dipanker]

Iirc many on the forum were predicting a much higher reduction in circulation, apparently they have been proven wrong.

From the Swarajyamag article.

Cash as a share of GDP also declined by about 1.6 percentage points, down from 11.3 per cent of GDP to 9.7 per cent. Cash as a share of M1, which represents liquid portions of money supply, also declined by five percentage points.

Clever accounting or rather graphing by Swarajyamag, it is computing the shortfall in circulation w.r.t some projected fictitious number. These projections are only "good" subject to the assumption of "all else being equal".
Well all else was not equal, demonetization happened! The comparison should be made with the actual amount in circulation on 8th Nov. 2016.

Per RBI latest Aug 02 figure the current amount in circulation is about 10% less than pre demonetization level and by demonetization date of Nov. 8, it is probably going to be around 7 - 8%.
Certainly not a drop of 25% to 30%.

[Supratik]

Are you being dumb or what. In a economy growing at 7% plus, numbers would remain static for one year.

[Suraj]

Iirc many on the forum were predicting a much higher reduction in circulation, apparently they have been proven wrong.

From the Swarajyamag article.

Cash as a share of GDP also declined by about 1.6 percentage points, down from 11.3 per cent of GDP to 9.7 per cent. Cash as a share of M1, which represents liquid portions of money supply, also declined by five percentage points.

The Swarajya article is really nice. It shows that demonetization is just one of several steps being undertaken in a very deliberate manner.

[Supratik]

More than 90000 crore extra investment in MFs in Q1.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... s?from=mdr

[Karthik S]

And also in Insurance.

[Dipanker]

Are you being dumb or what. In a economy growing at 7% plus, numbers would remain static for one year.

No, that will you because you are assuming one to one correspondence between GDP growth rate and amount of money in circulation.

[vera_k]

On vacation last month, I found card payments are being accepted willingly in metros. However in smaller cities, merchants refuse to accept card payments saying the network is down or the machine is not functional. Even in metros where card payments are accepted, not all merchants are able to accept cards with billing addresses outside India.

More steps to encourage electronic payments are needed to sustain the momentum towards cashless economy.

[Supratik]

There is a direct co-relation between money in circulation and economic growth. Even if you had basic science training you would know that what you are saying is bunkum. But I guess you are from Kanhaiya Kumar school of excellence.

[Dipanker]

No, what you originally said is bunkum, it is possible for a economy to grow without any appreciable change in money in circulation. Best e.g. would be financial year 2016-17 where due to demonetization the money in circulation actually went down but economy still grew by 7%. But you want to be purposely dense then your prerogative.

[hanumadu]

^^The trend line for money in circulation before DeMo is clear. The change is clearly because of DeMo.

[Suraj]

Demonetisation helped formalise savings: Study

Demonetisation may not have lead to a windfall for the government in monetary terms, but it has positively changed the way Indians save and use their excess fund, a staff study by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reveals.

"An important positive impact of demonetisation has been to induce a shift towards formal channels of saving by households," the study, done by RBI staffers Manoranjan Dash, Bhupal Singh, Snehal Herwadkar and Rasmi Ranjan Behera has found. The study does not reflect RBI's official view, but was released on RBI website.

The researchers found that during and after demonetisation period, there has been a distinct increase in saving flows into equity and debt oriented mutual funds and life insurance policies. Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) have also been positively impacted in terms of collections and disbursals, the researchers said.

[Kakkaji]

How some of India's PSUs are set for a logical evolution through disinvestment

Good article. Balanced. Charts are also good.

[Austin]

RBI dividend halves to Rs 30,659 cr: Demonetisation hero turns out to be villain for Narendra Modi govt

[Suraj]

RBI dividend halves to Rs 30,659 cr: Demonetisation hero turns out to be villain for Narendra Modi govt

The headline is quite nonsensical sensationalism. The cost of withdrawing and printing new currency was always going to appear as a reduced dividend anyway. I'm surprised the entire exercise cost under $5 billion. The benefits of discouraging large value cash transactions will have far reaching consequences for the formal economy, both in the short and long term.

[Rishirishi]

RBI dividend halves to Rs 30,659 cr: Demonetisation hero turns out to be villain for Narendra Modi govt

The greatest dividende of the demonetisation was giving hope back to Indias. Making the high and mighty desperate, brought back a sense of justace.

[Austin]

Other then the dead 80 odd people there is not much hope demonitisation has given which looking back was a political decision , If you are on the street you know you are back to square one , Neither the politician or the builder/business lobby lost their black money they made in into white with help of bankers , few who lost will make up for it for most the common man suffered in the bargain.

[Austin]

India's forex reserves at new life-time high of USD 393.448 billion

[deejay]

Economic Survey Volume 2 tabled in Parliament. PIB press Release below:

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease. ... lid=169874

As regards Outlook for Growth 2017-18, Survey (Volume I) had forecast a range for real GDP growth of 6.75 percent to 7.5 percent for FY 2018. For Outlook for Prices & Inflation 2017-18, the Survey notes the outlook for inflation in the near-term will be determined by a number of proximate factors, including:

· The outlook for capital flows and exchange rate which in turn will be
influenced by the outlook and policy in advanced economies, especially the US;
• the recent nominal exchange rate appreciation;
• the monsoon;
• the introduction of the GST;
• the 7th Pay Commission awards;
• likely farm loan waivers; and
• the output gap

The document says that the fact that current inflation is running well below the 4 percent target, suggests that inflation by March 2018 is likely to be below the RBI’s medium term target of 4 percent.

As regards Review of Economic Developments 2016-17, the Survey notes that

§ Real economy grew by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 compared with 8 percent the previous year. This performance was higher than the range predicted in the Economic Survey (Volume I) in February.
§ This growth suggested that the economy was relatively resilient to the large liquidity shock of demonetization which reduced cash in circulation by 22.6 percent in the second half of 2016-17. The apparent resilience was even more marked in nominal growth magnitudes because both nominal GVA and GDP growth accelerated by over 1 percentage point in 2016-17 compared with 2015-16.
§ Annual inflation averaged 5.9 per cent in 2014-15 and has since declined to 4.5 per cent in FY 2017. More dramatic have been developments during 2016-17- inflation declined sharply from 6.1 percent in July 2016 to 1.5 percent in June 2017.
§ The sharp dip in WPI inflation in late FY 2015 and throughout FY 2016 owed to the deceleration in global commodities prices, especially crude oil prices. With global commodity prices recovering and the ‘base effect’ (low inflation in the previous year) giving an upward push, wholesale inflation perked up during FY 2017
§ With the green shoots slowly becoming visible in merchandise trade, and robust capital flows, the external position appears robust, reflected inter alia in rising reserves and a strengthening exchange rate.
§ The current account deficit narrowed in 2016-17 to 0.7 percent of GDP, down from 1.1 percent of GDP the previous year, led by the sharp contraction in trade deficit which more than outweighed the decline in net invisibles
§ Export growth turned positive after a gap of two years and imports contracted marginally, so that India’s trade deficit narrowed to 5.0 per cent of GDP (US$
billion) in FY 2017 as compared to 6.2 per cent (US$ 130.1 billion) in the previous year.

Highlights on Agriculture, Industry and Social Infrastructure (PIB release)
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease. ... lid=169875

Highlights on Fiscal Management, Monetary Management etc (PIB release)
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease. ... lid=169876

[nash]

Indian economic cycle entering strongest phase: Report
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 049399.cms

India Inc records highest sales growth in five quarters of 5.6% year-on-year

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

Low Inflation - High growth rate - Twin deficit(CAD & FD) in control - led to strong rupee, signals are good for the future.

[negi]

Demonetization is just one of the knobs that will control currency in circulation; other important knobs on control panel are "RERA bill" "Benami properties bill(coming soon)" , "Linkage of Adhar to tax returns(in progress)" and biggest of them the GST and GSTN . Finally real deal will come when few offenders will be made example of . Now I hope that we phase out the 2k INR note in a year or two the time in which it was rolled out and it's $hitty quality tells me it was rolled out as part of quick release and discontinue plan from the outset.

[yensoy]

All that is fine and good to clean up the system, but the economy most critically needs to create more jobs and show real growth. Playing with numbers isn't going to cut it.

[Dumal]

Other then the dead 80 odd people there is not much hope demonitisation has given which looking back was a political decision , If you are on the street you know you are back to square one , Neither the politician or the builder/business lobby lost their black money they made in into white with help of bankers , few who lost will make up for it for most the common man suffered in the bargain.

Did 80 odd people die, who but for demonetization, would have been alive? Really. I don't remember any such specific clear-cut cases. I do remember within the just the first 10-20 days the usual suspects starting with Kejriwal gang were mouthing 100 dead, 120 dead etc and having arguments with reporters not toeing their line. After November, though, there was almost no more of those claims.

[Gus]

Demonetization is just one of the knobs that will control currency in circulation; other important knobs on control panel are "RERA bill" "Benami properties bill(coming soon)" , "Linkage of Adhar to tax returns(in progress)" and biggest of them the GST and GSTN . Finally real deal will come when few offenders will be made example of . Now I hope that we phase out the 2k INR note in a year or two the time in which it was rolled out and it's $hitty quality tells me it was rolled out as part of quick release and discontinue plan from the outset.

transitioning from a 'overwhelmingly tax evading nation' to a 'mostly tax compliant' nation is a process that will take time and a lot of changes in lots of areas and collectively these steps (demo, cash restrictions, pan-aadhaar, GST, benami act etc) will push us there.

It is laughable to pick one step and say that it failed because statistics and exceptions and anecdotes etc.

While there may be issues with any of these individual steps - policy wise, execution wise and results wise etc - it is the synergy and intent and overall results and the platform for further reforms that matter more.

[Chandragupta]

Demonetization is just one of the knobs that will control currency in circulation; other important knobs on control panel are "RERA bill" "Benami properties bill(coming soon)" , "Linkage of Adhar to tax returns(in progress)" and biggest of them the GST and GSTN . Finally real deal will come when few offenders will be made example of . Now I hope that we phase out the 2k INR note in a year or two the time in which it was rolled out and it's $hitty quality tells me it was rolled out as part of quick release and discontinue plan from the outset.

DeMo did diddly squat against black money. It has put a minor dent in the hawala channels and an even smaller dent in the black money stores of big builders & businessmen. It may have been a political decision to cripple opposition parties & I support it wholeheartedly (for being that alone). But let us not go around claiming DeMo changed the country. It has not.

Even GST is such a disappointment. What was already complicated has been made more complicated. Even small businesses now have to file 4-5 returns a month. I wish I were a CA. Instead of simplifying the tax regime Jaitley has made it into a maze. Even a small company with offices in two states will need 2 GSTNs and follow multiple other processes to even transfer stock. The earlier entry forms have been replaced by e-forms. Where is the ease of business?

I see hawala channels being run smoothly as ever, Chinese maal undercutting Indian products, it does not look worth it. Better to just shelve the business & start trading chinese maal or go back to IT-vity. There is 0 incentive for Make in India.

Soon, I will be approaching the Government for funds/grants/loans under the 3 dozen start up schemes launched by NaMo. Let's see what it is all about. I don't expect much from it, but will share my experience here.

[Suraj]

Everyone's being much too hasty claiming DeMo changed nothing. This is one of those statements that sounds like a guy falling off the Empire State Building and calling out every 10 floors: "everything ok so far!"

The main gain out of DeMo is that pretty much everyone's cash holding has been known. GoI doesn't *have* to act on them right away. They're in politics after all - use it at a politically opportune time, such as the KA raids when the Guj MLAs were there.

Demonetization pushes formal transaction activity, along with GST. All that 'complicated return filing' ? It's called the cost of doing business. Everyone talks about how it was easier in the older times. Posts by those like disha show otherwise.

Formalization of economic activity has long term benefits. It's three months short of a year into DeMo, and GST is 1.5 months old. It's quite pointless to expect everything to work right away. There's no point in blaming the government, unless every last person was completely prepared and did their bit to perfection, which isn't anywhere near true. A tax system of this magnitude will have teething trouble, anywhere in the world.

All this DeMo/GST is either politically motivated by those whose leanings are known, those in business venting (which is ok), or both.

[Chandragupta]

Ofcourse, formalization of economic activity is a long term activity with long term benefits. No other way around it. But nothing so far has made 'Making in India' easier. Its as tough & complicated as it was before. It was never easier but expectation from NaMo was to make it easier. Bribery has not gone away, babus have not mended their ways, the red tape is still there in several ways.

See, the thing is that despite all the bluster about Make in India & Stand up India and what not, I as a small manufacturer of electronic products, don't see anything changing in the last 3 years. All I see is no change in Chinese maal being dumped in Indian markets, no easy funds being made available for small businesses, no changes in bringing cost & difficulty of doing business down in India.

It is very easy to say for someone sitting inside an MNC cabin that the Government does not owe anything to small businesses, why should we be treated any differently? And I see it happening here a lot. Many people who have never dabbled into business in India, leave alone manufacturing, preaching how all entrepreneurs should be thankful of Modi ji so that they can now formalize everything in their businesses including employee benefits & protection & insurance. Well, we are not Tatas and the workers that work for us are blue collar workmen whose loyalty to our businesses is less than Congress' loyalty to the country. Running a business in this country sucks as much as it is and to be told that to complicate it further is a good thing for us.

If Modi wants job creation, it won't happen via the service sector, it will happen via manufacturing and it will not happen by dispersing Rs.50,000 loans for people to open kirana stores. It will only happen if & when they empower mid level to high tech SME sector and nothing towards this has happened in the last 3 years, nada, zilch.

[Gus]

compliance cost have reduced - for those who were in compliance before.

compliance cost has increased - for those who were not in compliance before.

guess who is doing the complaining?

[Chandragupta]

Compliance cost has increased, who are you fooling? And this business of hinting that anyone complaining must be an evil black money hoarding baniya is really lame. Grow up.

[Gus]

Even small businesses now have to file 4-5 returns a month

that is just laughably false.

The requirement is GSTR-1, 2 & 3 per month with outward on 10th, inward on 15th and the auto-generated one on 20th.

That already is a huge step away from the complicated process of having to deal with different tax structures, regimes and entities and tax arbitration authorities before.

All this will become easy peasy as it is all online and software oriented which lends itself to becoming better and smoother over time with devices to read and transmit information from packages when it is being moved and excel macros and mobile apps and what not.

again, guess who will be the one complaining about this? The ones who were dealing with compliance before or the ones who were happy with no compliance before?

[Manish_Sharma]

Cross posting from Neutering Chinese Thread :

Trade war looming between India-China: Chinese state media

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

A trade war seems to be looming between India and China after New Delhi imposed anti-dumping duties on 93 Chinese products amidst a military standoff in Doklam area, two state media reports here said today.

An article in The Global Times, part of the ruling Communist Party's publication group, urged Chinese firms to "reconsider the risks" of investing in India and warned New Delhi to be "prepared for the possible consequences for its ill-considered action."

The article said that China "could easily retaliate" with restrictions on Indian products, but added that it "doesn't make much economic sense" for the country.

It cited figures from the Indian embassy in China to show that Indian exports fell by 12.3 per cent year-on-year to USD 11.75 billion while India's imports from China rose by 2 per cent to USD 59 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 47 billion.

According to the Indian Commerce Ministry, the trade deficit with China last year mounted to over USD 52 billion when the bilateral trade stood at USD 70 billion.

"A trade war between China and India seems to be looming after the latter moved last Wednesday to impose anti-dumping duties on 93 products from China," the report said. [A much needed and appreciated step by India]

"If India really starts a trade war with China, of course China's economic interests will be hurt, but there will also be consequences for India," it said.

The report on trade comes as India and China have been locked in a tense military standoff in Doklam in the Sikkim sector.

India has protested the construction of a road by the Chinese military in the area claimed by its ally Bhutan, fearing it would allow Beijing to cut off India's access to its northeastern states.

The Global Times report warned that "given the tense bilateral trade ties, China may consider temporarily suspending investment or economic cooperation projects in India to ensure the security of these investments."

Another article in China Daily said boycotting Chinese goods would harm India.

Referring to the calls of boycott of Chinese products, it said the ongoing standoff in Doklam seems to have spilled over into bilateral exchanges.

"Suffice to say, calling for the boycotting of Chinese products and those related to Chinese investors is not just a fool's errand but also risks backfiring," it said.

"It is the Indian economy that will suffer because of the boycott," it said. [Again a bluster by Gobar Crimes]

Any attempt to keep Chinese cellphone companies at bay or shut down Chinese-invested factories will hurt the Indian economy and cost Indian jobs, it said.

Suraj your ideas of extra Mountain Strike Corps cess on chinese is being implemented.

[ragupta]

Other then the dead 80 odd people there is not much hope demonitisation has given which looking back was a political decision , If you are on the street you know you are back to square one , Neither the politician or the builder/business lobby lost their black money they made in into white with help of bankers , few who lost will make up for it for most the common man suffered in the bargain.

lot of janta made money, by providing services, there was wealth distribution through that means, obviously, more such major is needed to knock sense into Money hoarder. Habit of 70 years are not going to go away in 7 months, may be 70 months they will learn. with multiple shocks and cornering by Demo, RERA, Benami, Adhaar and PAN linking, direct transfer, there is going to be only few places they can hide. Some 800 may soon suicide for all that you know.

[Suraj]

Chandragupta, boss, your points are all well taken . To a point . What do you hope to get here ? There are multiple people here who own business in India and have posted at length, and they contradict you . You aren't the sole reference .

Also, if you're going to whine, use the constructive whine thread . Serves no purpose here . If you have really useful insights to offer, that would be very welcome. E.g. Describe what each of the N compliance documents asks, and suggest that they be harmonized into something simpler in a particular manner . Don't just whine about 'too many documents' etc . It just dissolves in he said she said nonsense that we have no time for .

Complaining and whining here on this thread is tiresome and pointless . This thread for avoids emotional chcayter as much as possible in favor of cold analysis , and I've no desire to see that change .

[sanjaykumar]

^^"It is the Indian economy that will suffer because of the boycott," it said.

The Chinese are ever so solicitous of India's welfare, they don;t want its economy to suffer or its army to suffer defeat.....

[Suraj]

Manish_Sharma: great news indeed . Good to see GoI take he most effective approach .