Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Aug 2017 22:42

TKiran wrote:
chola wrote:By hook or crook, GOI must make sure there is no effort to establish ties with Cheen from Bhutan. There are those trying to use this crisis as an excuse.
Sorry to give a very distasteful analogy, but if one is not able to hold on and prematurely ej@culate, that guy is hoping that his wife should not get full fu(k from a mother fuc(ker who is always looking at his wife with predatory eyes.

I am issuing a warning for using bad language. You know its bad and yet posted it.
If you don't delete your post in 8hours you will be banned.

Thank you.
ramana

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Aug 2017 22:43

Now is the right time we accept Bhutan 's merger with Indian state so good people of Bhutan can live in peace without threat from China. Those Royals who have bargained with PRC for $ must now know the limitation of their ambition.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Aug 2017 22:51

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php? ... 2461792483

India today account

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 28 Aug 2017 22:58

Frankly, having followed this thread closely, it amazes me to see the lack confidence we have in ourselves even after 200+ pages.

"Modi didn't punch 11, so we lost", "Baahubali didn't shout at Bhalla", "What if they do it they do it again?", "what happens at night when we are sleeping?", etc. etc.

Arrey bhai, thoda toh garv rakho (pliss to retain some pride onlee). This incident could've gone with no one the wiser, had WE not CHOSEN to RESPOND INSIDE Bhutan. The Chinese would not have shouted and cried so loudly if we are abjectly surrendering. For once, recognize that we played this one right. And we were able to do so thanks in no small part to the troops at the border. They know to manage these things, like when their road equipment shows up again.

But if some people still want dishoom-dishoom onlee, there are dozens of bad kung-fu movies with poor sound editing (copyleft JEM saar) that one can watch. They are, appropriately, made in China.

But please stop this schoolboyish whining about Modi losing this and that. India WON this round, period.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Aug 2017 22:59

In inter-national affairs there are two ways of looking at things; Strategic/geo-political and Tactical/Military. Strategic looks at the big picture, the forest and rationalizes away the threat. Tactical/Military looks at the situation at hand and counters it with tactical or military moves. Doklam was a security threat at the root and India responded with military. China expected it to be a strategic move and hoped India would respond with diplomatic talks etc., which they could deny.
The biggest error is Type Zero: Solving the wrong problem precisely.
Hence China lost.

In 1962, India thought the problem was strategic and looked at all kinds of rationale to think why China would not attack. In fact where there was stiff resistance to the Chinese they withdrew after over running the positions. Where India did not offer resistance they occupied it example Aksai Hind.

This is the big lesson in 1962.

With Chinese and Pakistanis the thinking should be tactical not strategic for they are low reptilian minds due to ideology seeking immediate gains. You give an inch they think they are the ruler.

As I said before in inter-national affairs if you have to explain you have already lost.

Look who is explaining. Its China and its huge media machine.

I submit to all the naysayers learn to recognize a victory when it is won.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 28 Aug 2017 23:01

^BK wants an in your face challenge to China at the diplomatic level. No need for that now. We protect our interests for now - aggressively, that is enough. As long as the withdrawal is mutual and the construction has been stopped, PRC will have an egg on its face for spinning the issue - at least the world outside China will know of PRC lies soon enough. The important thing here is for Bhutan and the rest of ASEAN to know that India has not and will not back down and can be a dependable ally.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 28 Aug 2017 23:06

I think India clearly won the pre-resolution phase of the standoff and the stand off outcome. Where we lost is in the MEA statements, which were weak. We gave the Chinese a face saver, and unless the Chinese gave us something in return, there was no need for us to do that. We seem to lack a killer instinct, even when we are in the stronger position. I have to congratulate the Chinese on playing a weak hand well.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 28 Aug 2017 23:09

Yagnasri wrote:Why do we need to allow China to save its face? Did China given any respect for us in the last two months or do anyone here think that they will respect us for allowing them to save their face?

+1

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Aug 2017 23:14

Meanwhile in the future Hana: shoddy hillside construction Made In China
Can't imagine why Indian Army needed bulldozers to dig up Chinese road: their construction seems to collapse at the slightest sign of moisture.

Also, Doklam or not, our boycott continues on the grounds of quality control.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Aug 2017 23:16

If you want to kick the tiger in his ass you'd better have a plan for dealing with his teeth

Tom Clancy, The Teeth of the Tiger (Jack Ryan Universe, #12)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Aug 2017 23:19

ramana wrote:In inter-national affairs there are two ways of looking at things; Strategic/geo-political and Tactical/Military. Strategic looks at the big picture, the forest and rationalizes away the threat. Tactical/Military looks at the situation at hand and counters it with tactical or military moves. Doklam was a security threat at the root and India responded with military. China expected it to be a strategic move and hoped India would respond with diplomatic talks etc., which they could deny.
The biggest error is Type Zero: Solving the wrong problem precisely.
Hence China lost.

In 1962, India thought the problem was strategic and looked at all kinds of rationale to think why China would not attack. In fact where there was stiff resistance to the Chinese they withdrew after over running the positions. Where India did not offer resistance they occupied it example Aksai Hind.

This is the big lesson in 1962.

With Chinese and Pakistanis the thinking should be tactical not strategic for they are low reptilian minds due to ideology seeking immediate gains. You give an inch they think they are the ruler.

As I said before in inter-national affairs if you have to explain you have already lost.

Look who is explaining. Its China and its huge media machine.

I submit to all the naysayers learn to recognize a victory when it is won.

Great post sir. You also came up with the reptilian brain model to explain the islamo sinic hive mind long ago

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 28 Aug 2017 23:22

sanjayc wrote:H&D is important to China. Making China lose face will force its hand to take military action even with heavy casualties. Modi was smart in this when it allowed China to withdraw while claiming there were no concessions from its side. It is a win win for India actually. China learnt a lesson that its bluff will be called by India when required. Other countries are not fools -- they noticed what exactly happened on the border. China is the loser actually. Their aggression on the border will be gone from now on. It is a massive blow to the superior attitude against Indian army that Chinese were having since 1962. It is a paradigm shift. As Bruce Lee said, the best fighting style is to fight without fighting. India won without firing a bullet

This all makes no sense. Everyone knew all along that the Chinese game was to make others believe them when they say, "give in to us or we will come after you massively, for the sake of echandee no matter what the cost."

So how is it a win for India to follow exactly the script laid out by China?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Aug 2017 23:26

Guddu wrote:I think India clearly won the pre-resolution phase of the standoff and the stand off outcome. Where we lost is in the MEA statements, which were weak. We gave the Chinese a face saver, and unless the Chinese gave us something in return, there was no need for us to do that. We seem to lack a killer instinct, even when we are in the stronger position. I have to congratulate the Chinese on playing a weak hand well.

Guddu,
There is a Chinese saying that says never corner your enemy and leave them a way out to escape. If you corner then you could have an unnecessary fight.

The challenge of China is its economic strength and not political, diplomatic nor military.

I wrote this 16 years ago in BR Monitor.

GD, There is Kureel cartoon that sums up the situation very well. Any one if possible post it.

KLNM, Please read this. Its not the Chinese script. Its Indian script.

I predict soon China will reform itself.
This is the Battle of Vienna moment.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 28 Aug 2017 23:27

Can't get any clearer than this - Doklam: Chinese troops have left with bulldozers, says Indian official

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said there were about 1,700-1,800 Chinese troops in the Doklam area where they proposed to build a road and all of them have left.

The Indian troops, whose number was in a “few hundreds”, have also moved out of the standoff area, the official said, adding it is a “demilitarised” area now.

The Doklam standoff had begun in June when the Indian troops objected to the Chinese building a road there.

“The bulldozers have been taken away, tents have been removed and even a flag which they (Chinese) had hoisted there has been removed,” the official said.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Aug 2017 23:39

^
Just saying .. I didn't need to read the above but my confidence came from the wording of the MEA statement that JEM saar shared plus what the Chinese left out while claiming victory.

But I am still glad to read it.

Mea was clear enough though it did not try to rub it in and as expected the details have started to be leaked while India officially maintaining its side of the deal letting the Chinese have a face saver than can be spun for its mangoes.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Aug 2017 23:46

All Indian news portals have started carrying the news of Chinese withdrawal. I am only going by the headline.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 262735.cms
http://www.firstpost.com/india/dokalam- ... 84551.html
https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll ... es/1134039

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Aug 2017 23:48

Kureel's cartoon

https://twitter.com/TheIndiaEye/status/ ... 3646718977

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Aug 2017 23:52

^
There was another one about the deflating ~~dlagon~~ lizard that was even better.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Aug 2017 23:57

Kutiyapa has started i.e. the CON comment.

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... ure/300903
Doklam Standoff Ends: It Remains To Be Seen If This Is A Temporary Measure

An assurance by China, not to continue the road construction activity allowing India to withdraw its troops from Doklam appears to be at the bottom of the resolution of the two month long standoff between the two neighbours.

It remains, however, remains to be seen whether this was a temporary measure by the Chinese to ensure the smooth passage of the BRICS Summit that it is holding in the country early next month or a more permanent arrangement.

India claimed both sides have agreed to “disengage” their personnel from the area. China, though did not make any mention of the road construction activity maintained that its patrol in Doklam will continue. But it acknowledged that “in accordance with the changes of the situation on the ground, China will make necessary adjustments and deployments in accordance with those changes.”

The main opposition, Congress party did not accept the government’s claim that both sides have agreed on “mutual disengagement” arguing that China had insisted on continuing with the patrolling in Doklam.

However, for India patrolling in the area by the Chinese troops was not an issue. The area is under dispute because it is claimed by both China and Bhutan. India’s argument of moving into the Bhutanese territory to block the Chinese was to stop the road construction in the area that falls close to the India, China and Bhutan tri-junction.

As part of the 2012 agreement between India and China both sides had agreed not to undertake any construction activity in the area unless all three parties—India, China and Bhutan give their consent to it. The Doklam episode began with the Chinese unilateral action of building the road there forcing Indian soldiers to move in and stop the Chinese workers and construction activities. Once the Chinese assured to stop the road building construction, India did not have any problems of withdrawing its troops from Doklam. [Makes it seem that India holds a veto as far as agreements go]

However, the way the situation had been panning out in the past two months, many had begun to predict whether the issue will be settled through an armed engagement between the two neighbours. The Chinese agencies and its media had been issuing regular belligerent statements threatening India with dire consequences if it did not withdraw its troops.

Delhi refused to match the Chinese rhetoric but remained firm in its position. Finally, back room negotiations and prolonged diplomacy on part of the Chinese, Indian and also aided by the Russians, appear to have worked in finding an amicable resolution to the standoff.

An important part in this appears to be the decision of PM Narendra Modi to participate in the forthcoming BRICS Summit in China. There were apprehensions in some quarters that if the Doklam standoff continued it would be difficult for Modi to attend the BRICS Summit. The Summit gathered special significance this year because this was the first one being organized by President Xi Jinping. With India agreeing to participate in the Summit at the highest level with Modi’s participation, the Chinese leadership also appeared to have looked for ways to ease the tension and resolve the Doklam standoff before the BRICS Summit.

It now remains to be seen whether the two leaders—Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi—when they meet on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit can find a more permanent mechanism to ease future tensions along the disputed boundary.

AdityaM · Post by **AdityaM** » 29 Aug 2017 00:03

Prem wrote:Now is the right time we accept Bhutan 's merger with Indian state so good people of Bhutan can live in peace without threat from China. Those Royals who have bargained with PRC for $ must now know the limitation of their ambition.

Tiger: hey Bhutan... pssst...!
Dragon is very bad. It will devour you!
But I can save you

Bhutan: thank you. How will u save me?!

Tiger: I will eat you first!

Bhutan: #$@&%*!?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Aug 2017 00:07

pankajs wrote:^
There was another one about the deflating ~~dlagon~~ lizard that was even better.

Here:
https://twitter.com/ManojKureel/status/ ... 8840227840

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 29 Aug 2017 00:09

This situation will be repeated again in the near future, perhaps sooner than we think. We need to use this recess to build and to buy whatever our armed forces need to fight a war. Acquisition of new weapons and infrastructure in the border region take time. Perhaps we should contribute more of our GDP towards defense. If we arm ourselves correctly, both in the Himalayas and in the Indian Ocean, the lizard will look for weaker opponents, there are plenty of them to go around.
Gautam

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 29 Aug 2017 00:27

There are internal issues at the leadership level in China. It is clear. It may be appropriate to observe that the Indian polity is at the moment less liable to sudden flux than China's is. Things are happening between the military and political formations that are hard to parse, but what is gradually becoming clearer is that the tactical autonomy of military units is likely being "used" by the military leadership (at some level, and for what purpose is not evident at least to me) to destabilise in whatever manner possible the Xi Jinping dispensation.

The eventual outcome could be either way, but I cannot see the military taking a political role, so are we going to see a more militarily inclined politician move forward from the front ranks as a challenger to Xi? Maybe. Frankly I can't see that happening either. Very discouraging situation. The Chinese leadership need to get their heads and act together. The situation can get out of hand, and not on the Indian side of their frontiers...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Aug 2017 00:39

JE Menon wrote:There are internal issues at the leadership level in China. It is clear. It may be appropriate to observe that the Indian polity is at the moment less liable to sudden flux than China's is. Things are happening between the military and political formations that are hard to parse, but what is gradually becoming clearer is that the tactical autonomy of military units is likely being "used" by the military leadership (at some level, and for what purpose is not evident at least to me) to destabilise in whatever manner possible the Xi Jinping dispensation.

The eventual outcome could be either way, but I cannot see the military taking a political role, so are we going to see a more militarily inclined politician move forward from the front ranks as a challenger to Xi? Maybe. Frankly I can't see that happening either. Very discouraging situation. The Chinese leadership need to get their heads and act together. The situation can get out of hand, and not on the Indian side of their frontiers...

PRC is facing a crisis of leadership and confidence.
Xi will either re-assert himself or will be swept off.
He has used the corruption card to eliminate rivals.
However Doklam standoff back-down has exposed his vulnerability.

There is an economic crisis looming and Xi has burned too many bridges in his quest to become Emperor.

Communism has run its course there and China will eventually benefit.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 29 Aug 2017 00:46

The next time the lizard will find a place where it is in a stronger position. They will again huff and puff, but will retreat when they realize the IA will fight them anyway. However, the invincibility of the PLA has been questioned. Wonder what the paki jernails are saying behind closed doors. This also would suggest to Pakis that there is no one to save them if they take panga with Trump.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 29 Aug 2017 00:46

Xi has practically murdered his opposition with in the party. He has also thoroughly closed up any progress that China made towards human rights etc. in the run up to the olympics. He is there for life. I dont know how you guys are predicting some kind of a power struggle.. There was one, Xi won.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 29 Aug 2017 00:55

Sudeepj

I am not predicting a power struggle, merely describing one that is already occurring by all indications - such as they are. Of course Xi won, but for how long and where will the next bushfire erupt? The fact that the Doklam incident occurred at all is a suggestion that there is something outside the ordinary happening. Precisely because it was bound to end as it has. The only other alternative is that it was a mistake, but that could have easily been sorted within 48 hours. It wasn't. Therein lies the catch.

Is there an alternative explanation? It can't be that Xi thought this up as some sort of Chankian plan for some other objective no one knows yet...because well, it didn't quite work out like that.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Aug 2017 00:56

If history has shown anything, it's that no definitive claims can be made about Chinese leadership due to the opaqueness of what's actually visible to the outside world.

Venkarl · Post by **Venkarl** » 29 Aug 2017 01:01

shiv wrote:India (officially) is not claiming victory. China will say what its beepals want to hear. But if they talk too much about "victory" India will blandly blurt out some truths. Knowing that - China will not go beyond a point

Wise words finally.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 29 Aug 2017 01:02

Just wait a few weeks. India has no incentive to withhold the terms of the agreement. It will come out as chaiwallah mutterings.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 29 Aug 2017 01:06

^^Indeed Suraj. Goes to show how little the world knows about the country that is supposed to be the next "leader of the world". We shall see, in due course.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Aug 2017 01:12

Dhruva Jaishankar‏Verified account @d_jaishankar 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @d_jaishankar

Trust but verify. India mentioned verification steps. This is important going forward, given experiences such as Scarborough Shoal. 5/6

Ryan Hass‏ @ryanl_hass 7h7 hours ago

If accurate, fits pattern of PRC behavior -push until hit steel, escalate public rhetoric, quietly look for offramp.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Aug 2017 01:15

shiv wrote:India (officially) is not claiming victory. China will say what its beepals want to hear. But if they talk too much about "victory" India will blandly blurt out some truths. Knowing that - China will not go beyond a point

No need to say words when we can just show pics of Doklam with the Chinese positions and construction equipment gone, with the geolocation data listed. They're welcome to come up with counterfeit pics from Foshan Fotoshop Factory claiming otherwise, but the damage will be done.

Venkarl · Post by **Venkarl** » 29 Aug 2017 01:17

sanjaykumar wrote:Just wait a few weeks. India has no incentive to withhold the terms of the agreement. It will come out as chaiwallah mutterings.

^^Mutterings of Chaiwallah or Cheeniwallah?

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 29 Aug 2017 01:22

Please Sir, Chai without Cheeni is for diabetics like me only. No fun. Let them mutter.
Gautam

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Aug 2017 01:37

Kutiyapa has started i.e. the CON comment.

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... ure/300903
Doklam Standoff Ends: It Remains To Be Seen If This Is A Temporary Measure
The main opposition, Congress party did not accept the government’s claim that both sides have agreed on “mutual disengagement” arguing that China had insisted on continuing with the patrolling in Doklam.

Tenzing Lamsang‏ @TenzingLamsang [Editor-in-Chief of 'The Bhutanese Newspaper' @thebhutanese]

Chinese soldiers came patrolling in area from before. No problems here. Standoff triggered by attempted road construction vs objection

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 29 Aug 2017 01:42

people in the know have a grin on their face. Give it 6-9 months & we will have lot of things to smile but we will wonder why these are happening.. cheers

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Aug 2017 01:47

No raising expectation. This by itself was a clear win. Anything else is bonus.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Aug 2017 01:49

ramana wrote:Kureel's cartoon

https://twitter.com/TheIndiaEye/status/ ... 3646718977

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Aug 2017 02:02

Suraj wrote:If history has shown anything, it's that no definitive claims can be made about Chinese leadership due to the opaqueness of what's actually visible to the outside world.

No Suraj.
History shows very clearly what happens when there is a failure in PRC.
- Mao purging the Lin Biao coterie. Mao consolidates
- Deng purging the Gang of Four. Deng promoted to Great Leader
- Fate of the PRC politician Zhao Zhiyang after TiananMen Square . Jiang Zemin promoted to great leader

First two case they were massacred.
Last one was sent to re-education camp.
Or look at Soviet Union
- Stalin kills Trotsky, Beria
- Khrushchev dethroned by Brezhnev, Kosygin. And retires.
- Coup against Gorbhachev. End of Soviet Union.

Violent replacement happens when leadership failure occurs.

We don't want to see the signs and seek recourse to Bamboo Curtain.