India - South & North Korea Thread

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Aditya_V
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Aditya_V »

US cant attack Noko cause
1. NOKO is not an ill trained Arab Army, high on Ego low on delivery
2.US public opinion and everyone is tired of war after the Iraq debacle.
3. SOKO is not ready for war and willing to sacrifice its capital from Noko artillery andd Nukes, don't forget Japan
4. Taking on NOKO will mean taking on PRC whose Nukes and Missiles are what NOKO are displaying.

There is no win for a POTUS, the people of Japan and Soko must first feel war is required. And for that unlike Pakis, Noko has not done any cross border shelling or terror attacks.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Karthik S »

The US specific reason is just 1, but I think people atleast on the pacific coast would understand they are in direct danger of NoKo ICBMs. I'd blame Japan for the position it's in. It threw itself under the bus with their pacifist constitution. Aside, will the US risk its own safety for the sake of 2 allies?
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by ashish raval »

No ballistic missile can hit American continent with nukes without entire country whichever fired it completely devoid of life for next thousands of years exactly 30 minutes after the launch of a nuke.

Fatboy is just looking for money to feed food to his people. America is very well protected again any ballistic threats from Air, Sea or Land..

There will be no war. It is just ploy to screw China ànd it's markets and extract trade concessions by US.
Last edited by ashish raval on 06 Sep 2017 03:08, edited 1 time in total.
UlanBatori
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

sum wrote:^^ Korean govt has just declared a extra holiday to help citizens get a continous 10 day string of vacations at end of this month. So, the SoKo govt definitely isnt too perturbed currently

Oct. 2 designated by Blue House as a Chuseok-season holiday
That's the timeline I was looking for. Seoul half empty, ready for sooo-sorree chemical spill to evacuate the rest. Anyway, sold all 30 paise I had in Emerging Markets and International Discovery stocks which had both gone up steeply this year.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Gagan »

Japan has been looking for an excuse to ditch that Pacifist Constitution.
China & NoKo just provided them exactly that
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Gagan »

Fat Buoy is looking for a seat at the High table for himself, money for more aiyashi for himself.
He is trying in his own rotten and clumsy way - this may sound crazy, but not to be assassinated.

His people, he is p r o b a b l y come in a very distant second, if they matter at all.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

My take is that cheen is out to "nuke" Trump with this tamasha. If the fleets return with 3 destroyers limping, 3 or 4 planes missing, and some 50 serviceppl dead, and 0 on the NoKo side, and NoKo an H2-bum new clear detergent with ICBMS and all, he is going to be the simultaneous laughing stock of both donkeys and elephants.
He HAS to call their bluff. From "locked and loaded" to "tail between legs" is a baaad comedown.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by KLNMurthy »

UlanBatori wrote:My take is that cheen is out to "nuke" Trump with this tamasha. If the fleets return with 3 destroyers limping, 3 or 4 planes missing, and some 50 serviceppl dead, and 0 on the NoKo side, and NoKo an H2-bum new clear detergent with ICBMS and all, he is going to be the simultaneous laughing stock of both donkeys and elephants.
He HAS to call their bluff. From "locked and loaded" to "tail between legs" is a baaad comedown.
Trump won't do anything, he will just change the subject and attack Hillary or Obama. And his level of support won't drop.

Trump doesn't care about looking bad if he doesn't follow through on a threat. The US should care as its echandee and future deterrence capabilities would be affected, but Trump doesn't really care about the US. Not because he is necessarily unpatriotic in the conventional sense, but because the scope of hos mind doesn't extend to grasping what is meant by national interest.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Gagan »

SoKo is NOT cooperating with the US. The current Govt there is busy with Aman Ki Aasha with NoKo and China etc.
They are South Korea's version of CONgress I.
These idiots even had problems with the THAAD deployment, they held fake protests when the THAAD unit was moving in to position

Why do people think NoKo and China are so emboldened now hain ji? NoKo's southern borders are 400% safe.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

KLNMurthy wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:My take is that cheen is out to "nuke" Trump with this tamasha. If the fleets return with 3 destroyers limping, 3 or 4 planes missing, and some 50 serviceppl dead, and 0 on the NoKo side, and NoKo an H2-bum new clear detergent with ICBMS and all, he is going to be the simultaneous laughing stock of both donkeys and elephants.
He HAS to call their bluff. From "locked and loaded" to "tail between legs" is a baaad comedown.
Trump won't do anything, he will just change the subject and attack Hillary or Obama. And his level of support won't drop.

Trump doesn't care about looking bad if he doesn't follow through on a threat. The US should care as its echandee and future deterrence capabilities would be affected, but Trump doesn't really care about the US. Not because he is necessarily unpatriotic in the conventional sense, but because the scope of hos mind doesn't extend to grasping what is meant by national interest.
Quoting and retaining to praise the insight later.
KLNMurthy
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by KLNMurthy »

UlanBatori wrote: ...

Quoting and retaining to praise the insight later.
YakRakshak garu, if it is an insight, it makes much more sense to praise me now than later.

If somehow Trump does attack, I would be wrong in my prediction and you would be wrong in calling it an insight. We could praise each other for being wrong but should probably spare the public the unseemly exhibition.

On the other hand, if Trump doesn't attack on day n, there is always a probability that he may attack on day n+1, so I would never be conclusively proved right. Again, no opportunity for praise.

Why not seize the day and commence the stotram right now?

:-)
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Singha »

the do nothing route is easy because there is no further lineup of rogues who might be emboldened by Noko to cross the line.

iran is left for israel to work out
Soko and TSP are through the gate.
KSA is a do not touch category.

canada, aus, Euros and ASEAN+soko+Japan+taiwan are neutered house cats. all mew and no claw.

the only other countries with technology & human resource to make a n-weapon are brazil, south africa and argentina - not exactly candidates for rogue status or looking to rock the boat, all stable nations.

so they manage Noko and live with it.

I forgot turkey but turkey can be controlled by denying it access to european market.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

KLNMurthy wrote:
UlanBatori wrote: ...

Quoting and retaining to praise the insight later.
YakRakshak garu, if it is an insight, it makes much more sense to praise me now than later.
..
On the other hand, if Trump doesn't attack on day n, there is always a probability that he may attack on day n+1, so I would never be conclusively proved right. Again, no opportunity for praise. ..Why not seize the day and commence the stotram right now?
:-)
Now, now! Let's not dhoti-shiver, hain? As Neils Bohr Yogi Berra said:
Prediction is difficult. But only about the future
I sold stock because I am worried enough. Then again, maybe totally useless unless Trump strikes very soon. If he waits until the ICBM for Ulan Bator is ready, no point in buying or selling stock, its all going to be vaporized with me.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

Bissant sold-out wimps beginning to feel the heat on their musharraf as North Korean ICBM is moved to west coast (of NoKo, headed for west coast of US)**

Now they're :(( to "cap the number of nukes NoKo has". :roll: As if NoKo and China will respect that. :rotfl:

**: LACrimes is 400% owned by PeeAllSee.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by NRao »

Chinese scientist claims the NK test site could collapse and thus release radio active material:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/05/north-k ... -says.html
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

I think it already did: secondary "quake" observed. ramana said it was part of the ignition process, but I think this happened well after the first big quake.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

For US decision-makers, it is useful to consider the problem that Putin faced about 18 months ago: Syrian bases about to collapse, Syria on the verge of ISIS/USterrorist takeover. What military option did he have that was very neat or pretty?

But... yesterday Deir ez Zor was liberated, the war is all but won, ISIS is facing extermination in Syria, US-funded/trained terrorists are encircled, on the run, or already crept back to Turkey.

Is the US less capable?
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

ramana: how long will the cavern of an underground thermonuke ~ 0.5MT remain molten/vaporized? I mean, they are talking about cavern collapse releasing radiation - can the radiation be any more than that from a 10kT since that's all the fissile stuff that is in a TN, hain? Is the amount of secondary radioactive debris that much greater, and does it stay pressurized underground for this many days?
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by rsingh »

NRao wrote:Chinese scientist claims the NK test site could collapse and thus release radio active material:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/05/north-k ... -says.html
True because they were there.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

The main point of that article IMHO is to give wrong coordinates for the test site.
OTOH, here is why the PeeAllSee has Won The Hearts And Minds of The West
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

Japan develops Evac plan from South Korea .... to ... where?

I wonder if it is time for India/BRF to start a site to register the addresses of desis in SoKo. Evac may have to be by heli-borne rescuers from Indian ships. There may be no ports or airports or highways or (no electric power so no) trains or telecom facilities.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

The Ulan Bator Crystal Ball Predictor-Corrector has come out with the Predictor:
US launches attacks on Sep. 27th Korea time, Sep. 26 around 5AM EST. By the time the news hits the airwaves 3 NoKo subs are shaheed and so are most airfields, and the south facing hillsides north of the DMZ are all smoldering rubble avalanches while the north-facing slopes are just smoldering.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

Next tree flying in the wind: Trump disses elephants, donkeys fall backwards in tug-of-war. Debt ceiling extended, no govt. shutdown, Hurricane Harvey Relief package approved. Trump says: "This is what winning looks like".
Major result: Debt ceiling extended only unti; Dec. 15, elephants mad at not getting longer extension.
But that is irrelevant. If war starts at start of October, then no matter what happens, Trump will have emergency powers come December, and he will just extend the debt limit indefinitely.
The deal promises to speed the $7.9 billion Hurricane Harvey aid bill, which passed the House overwhelmingly Wednesday, to Trump's desk before disaster accounts run out later this week.
The move also buys almost three months, until Dec. 15, for Washington to try to solve myriad other issues, including more funding for the military, immigration and health care, and a longer-term increase in the government's borrowing authority to avoid a first-ever default.
Trump cut the deal at the White House just hours after Ryan had slammed the idea of the three-month extension sought by Democrats as "ridiculous."
Point is that Trump expects to be extremely busy in a couple of weeks, and can't afford to have nonsense cluttering his desk.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

Cross-posting from UBCN/ China dongless thread.
China is getting worried because for the first time since Tricky D1ck Nixon, da man in the WHOTUS is not predictable and well-house-trained. He may have learned from the sdre yindoos how to play the Chinese communist game: be in their faces, demand that they back down, or else massive force ready.

I think the next step if there is one before the all-out jhapad, will be an ultimatum asking China to force a verifiable CRE of NoKo missiles and nukes. 24-hour deadline to agree. Made in the UN. B-52s wheels-up off the runways of Strategic Air Command at H minus 14, headed for Korea from US bases. DEFCON 4 declared.
And by then the 3 subs will have been sunk.

China will be humiliated before the whole world, but have to crawl. If Trump has any spine, Xi is heading for Kruschevdom and he knows it, which is why the khulji. Ironically he is likely to end his days breaking rocks to build the same types of roads that he tried to build in Doklam. Maybe One Small Contribution to build OBOR through the Gobi.
**************************************

Here it comes: Eleven's golas are getting pressure

Expected US ultimatum begins to show:
Today
16:54 GMT
Trump says military action against North Korea is not first choice
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that military action against North Korea was not a first choice and said he had had a strong and frank discussion with China's President Xi Jinping about the issue. "President Xi would like to do something. We'll see whether or not he can do it. But we will not be putting up with what's happening in North Korea," Trump told reporters at the White House."I believe that President Xi agrees with me 100 percent... We had a very, very frank and very strong phone call." (Reuters)
14:47 GMT
China holds military drill as N. Korea tensions rise

China’s Air Force conducted military drills in seas adjacent to the Korean peninsula, an official report has said, as tensions soared over North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weaponry. The defense battalion simulated warding off a “low-altitude, surprise” attack off China’s east coast, and practiced defending against “nuclear and biological weapons,” according to the news website of the Chinese army. The purpose of the drill in the Bohai Gulf early Tuesday was not immediately clear. Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in Beijing on Wednesday that he had no information on the drill. (AFP)
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by ramana »

X-Post...
Prasad wrote:Sounds a lot like NPA speak but look at the level of engg help China has given to NoKo
https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-nor ... 1504711605
I think this doesn't square with the real facts on ground.
You don't learn how to make a device that produces Richter 5.7 mB to 6.3mB from a PhD program in vibration damping no matter how smart you are.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by ramana »

UlanBatori wrote:ramana: how long will the cavern of an underground thermonuke ~ 0.5MT remain molten/vaporized? I mean, they are talking about cavern collapse releasing radiation - can the radiation be any more than that from a 10kT since that's all the fissile stuff that is in a TN, hain? Is the amount of secondary radioactive debris that much greater, and does it stay pressurized underground for this many days?

The different thing here is the NoKo test was in a mountain and not a clear ground crater.

That could explain the lack of venting.

Cavern collapse stuff is bs just to appear to be concerned and we are victims onlee.

In the BARC Radiochemical analysis of post test they showed many other heavy metal isotopes which are created by high energy neutrons which are unique to TN reaction.

IOW there could be more than just fission bye products!

Somewhere we had Dr. Homi Sethna discussing the debris from Chinese MT tests and how India knew more about the test than probably the Chinese themselves.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

Vely vely equar-equar
“We’ve agreed to promote our joint initiative, based on Russian step-by-step Korean settlement plan and Chinese ideas to simultaneously freeze North Korean nuclear and missile activities, and US and South Korean joint military drills,” Putin said at a press conference after meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Moscow. We believe that the outer world is turbulent, local conflicts are emerging constantly, such issues as the Korean peninsula problem, Syrian question, remain very complex,” Xi Jinping said. “We intend to further develop our foreign policy coordination,” Putin said. Moscow and Beijing stressed the importance of taking North Korea’s concerns over its safety into consideration, calling them “justified.” “The two sides stress that justified North Korean concerns should be respected,” a joint statement by Russia’s and China’s foreign ministers reads. “Other countries should make certain moves to resume the negotiations, creating a peaceful disposition and mutual trust.” :rotfl:
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

Deal being offered by Russia-China in UNSC is to ***FREEZE*** NoKo nuke program where it is (for the next month or two) and for US/SoKo to stop all military preparations, drills etc. Clear that both Russia and China are goading Trump, but why, I wonder... Is the military equation that bad for US?

Seems to be a total breakdown of "deterrence". NoKo having thermonuke and ICBM is as bad as China building road right up to Chicken Neck, hain? 15 minutes from armageddon on US West Coast. I don't see how anyone can accept that and stay on as POTUS.
So Trump has to issue blatant threat - or just attack with no warning.
If Trump issues threats, China faces a lose-lose, IMO: must send troops into NoKo, or watch US smash NOKo and basically arrive at Yalu River. Of those options, sending in troops is faaar better:
a) Face-saver. China seen as savior of the world.
b) Prevent Korea reunification on SoKo terms.
c) Terrifies SoKo into submission, maybe into cutting off ties with US, remove THAAD. SoKo "Finlandized".

So this seems to be the planned outcome. Putin may also move some troops in along the railroad along the coast, and thus get warmer-water port access.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

All of which makes war the only option left for DT. Knowing Putin, this may be his calculation too: If NoKo breaks up with China unable to do diddly about that, and Eleven losing his face and probably his ass, Putin can still send bottles of vodka by train and take over the coastline with warm-water access, and become the biggest supplier to the reconstruction effort. Putin comes out the winner whichever way this turns out.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Gagan »

They are daring Trump to put the US, Japan, SoKo into a war.
Most likely this will be a conventional war, and no N weapons will be used.

But Russia and China are hoping to deliver a blow to the US economically and militarily

Time will tell.
No N weapons state has ever been subjected to all out war with the intent of decapitation, demilitarization etc.
Very high stakes game going on here
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

See, Putin HAS dared to go into a conventional war, and has battle-hardened, battle-proven forces. No reason for doubt on that count. He knows his precision weapons will work, and he knows his old fleet of bombers will deliver, and his anti-tank missiles work well. Besides there is little risk of damage to Russia here.

The other HUGE problem with Trump showed up yesterday: out of the blue, under pressure to get moving on things, he suddenly allied with the Democrats and cut a deal that has a lot of problems for himself. Note that his instincts were absolutely right: it is the elephants that have been obstructing governance for the past 12 years - and he basically ignored and dissed them. Democracts can't believe what just happened, but one effect is immediate silencing of their leadership in Trump-bashing. Apparently Trump said: "hey, its time we cut a deal and went out and announced it" and went with the best deal he could get at the time. So Eleven and puppet are betting on wearing him down, playing on his impatience, and getting a deal where their advantage is permanently frozen into agreements, while SoKo is sold down the river.

Remains to be seen, whether the real Trump is someone with steel or spaghetti nerves. IMO when his patience runs out he will press the Red Button, and the date and time for that is already set. Then again, when they see the writing on the wall, Eleven and Puppet will cave in, and China will try to salvage what it can by sending troops into Pyongyang. Trump should diss that, tell them to get the heck out while then can, and launch the strikes.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 08 Sep 2017 04:00, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by ramana »

UB, I want you to stop worrying bout what US/Putin/China etc. will do and think about what India should do after the NoKo test.

It does not matter if its real or fake.
Richter scale 5.7mB or 6.3mB has its own message.
You don't get that with conventional TNT.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

I have no doubt that the NoKos exploded a thermonuclear warhead, and I mean weaponized warhead for an ICBM. They also have an ICBM, meaning they can reach ANY POINT on Earth.
What this means for Indiapakistan etc I have no idea, I don't think it matters. Basically China exploded one of its weapons.
What I have been fixated on, is whether the US is going to war.
In any case, I would say that the first impact on India is the need for an urgent evacuation of all Indian nationals, from SoKo, and maybe from Japan.
Second is a huge trade impact due to war and trade/transport disruption - no way can this not affect the stock market and Indian companies.
In the longer run, India should IMO STRONGLY support the Koreans for reunification as a free nation, and help them rebuild.
This depends on the fallout (and I hope I am not being literal). Too many variables on how a war or other putsch will turn out - ranging from a quick end to the Ki, regime and NoKo appealing for SoKo aid, to a long-drawn-out war where the US interests cannot win, and war will continue until Pax Sinica - a disaster for freedom in the whole world. In the last extreme it is difficult to see how Indian access, much less influence, in those parts can survive, it will be Fortress India surrounded by a sea of red flags. So you see why I am rooting for a massive US attack on NoKo.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Karan M »

sum wrote:^^ Korean govt has just declared a extra holiday to help citizens get a continous 10 day string of vacations at end of this month. So, the SoKo govt definitely isnt too perturbed currently

Oct. 2 designated by Blue House as a Chuseok-season holiday
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
If SoKo had a BRF, i wonder how frustrated its members wud be, given SoKo seems like UPA+++++ is ruling it in some ways (apart from public governance and looting i presume)
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Prem »

SOKO have launched a New sub today which looks tiny .
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by Kashi »

Karan M wrote: If SoKo had a BRF, i wonder how frustrated its members wud be, given SoKo seems like UPA+++++ is ruling it in some ways (apart from public governance and looting i presume)
As long as the SoKo government keep raking up the "comfort women" issue, they'll be fine.

You may be surprised to know that there are more protests/marches against Japan than against NoKo and Kim in SoKo.

On August 15th, when SoKo celebrate their independence day, is usually marked by events such as these..

Image
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

ramana: See the quality of discourse in Indian mainstream media about the NoKo issue:
Duh! So China "helped" NoKo and Pakistan. How novel!
Better to heed UBCN Analysis any day.
Time to reopen the Morbid Rubbernecking dhaga so we can indulge ourselves without competing with the Times Of India for analysis on the Indian interest in SoKo/NoKo.

BTW, I am not very clear on the Indian role in the Korean War. I know India was a leader in negotiations and in fact the much-dissed VKKM was the key mediator who brought about the stoppage of the war, but India was also part of the UN, and it was the UN supposedly that invaded North Korea. So I am not sure about the regard for Indians in NoKo. In recent times NoKo ships have been seized at Indian ports for carrying Paki- bound contraband (missile parts) prohibited by UN sanctions. But India had about 2 to 5% of the trade with NoKo until recently (stopped after the prior round of US sanctions, grumbling that 90+ % of NoKo trade was coming from "one country").
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by sum »

As long as the SoKo government keep raking up the "comfort women" issue, they'll be fine.

You may be surprised to know that there are more protests/marches against Japan than against NoKo and Kim in SoKo.
I dont think there was even a *single* protest.

No one somehow even sames to care and just see NoKo as a retarded brother whose antics can be tolerated ( and the US anyways is there for providing cover if anything towards done by brother)
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by shiv »

UlanBatori wrote: Time to reopen the Morbid Rubbernecking dhaga so we can indulge ourselves without competing with the Times Of India for analysis on the Indian interest in SoKo/NoKo.
Herder - that thread was closed by ramana saying it can be opened again if need be. Please locate the thread and find the last post by ramana and click on "report post" with a message to admins to consider re opening. I have reported too many posts today and do not want to spam with one more.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Post by UlanBatori »

Indian connection North Korea
Whether you are already living as an expat in North Korea or still residing at home in India to prepare your relocation abroad, InterNations North Korea provides you with all you need: Founded in 2007, our trusted community has quickly established itself as the international networking platform for expats and global minds worldwide. Among our members there is also a number of Indian expats in North Korea, hailing from all across India - from Chennai, over Mumbai to New Delhi.
EMBASSY OF INDIA, PYONGYANG, DPR KOREA

H.E. Mrs. Jasminder Kasturia, Ambassador of India to DPR Korea
Ambassador Jasminder Kasturia did her Post Graduate studies in Chinese Language & Literature from School of Languages and M.Phil from the Center of East Asian studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She has also studied in Beijing Language and Culture, University, Beijing, PRC.

She joined Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, in February 1988

Past assignments:
1. Third Secretary, Embassy of India, Beijing
2. Deputy Secretary , East Asia Division, MEA
3. First Secretary, Embassy of India, Beijing
4. Counsellor, High Commission of India, London
5. Director, Indian Council for Cultural Relations, MEA, New Delhi
6. Ambassador of India to Pyongyang, DPR Korea

Ambassador Jasminder Kasturia has one son.
But.. Under Press Releases:
No document for this year 2015
Announcements
Coming Soon
Bilateral relations: (6-page document)Mentions up to Dec. 2016. I think in July India condemned NoKo's actions. Life is probably none too E-Z since then for Amb. Kasturia and her intrepid staff.
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