Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by vijaykarthik »

chola wrote: Because a democratic Cheen would be feted by the US and Japan. An East Asian style democracy like Japan, SoKo or Taiwan would give the PRC a per capita income in line with those nations. Geopolitically, it would no longer be strait-jacketed by Unkil's alliance and would be free to move its massive assets on its East Coast everywhere, including the IOR.

A free and democratic Cheen would be geopolitical disaster for Bharat because the rivalry is civilizational. In fact, if we looked at things in this light, the only thing cleaving the Confucian civilization is Cheen's communism (just like Islam has cloven civilizational Bharatiya.) Without it, then Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan and the rest of the Far East becomes one frighteningly powerful civilizational block. They are already economically integrated.
I think a democratic Cheen is an oxymoron. If they somehow became democratized, their ideology will also fundamentally change and they will be willing to go half way or be ready for compromises - I would argue that democracy is fundamentally anathema to the current Chinese / CCP policy. If we brought in democracy to China, the concept of tianxia will eventually die out because it will get so diluted. We won't have the problems that we currently face.

PS: I see your point in the cloak of communism in China et al but if we think about it, ASEAN has been trying to become a single block for a long time just like SAARC is, EU is etc etc. Its not so easy particularly when all the member countries are becoming more nationalistic and also voting in more national leaders etc.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Karthik S »



Look at the map of India at 0:42 and the description: "India, the south Asian nation" as if India is not heard by many people in the world.
:lol: graceless wannabe superpower.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by chola »

vijaykarthik wrote:
chola wrote: Because a democratic Cheen would be feted by the US and Japan. An East Asian style democracy like Japan, SoKo or Taiwan would give the PRC a per capita income in line with those nations. Geopolitically, it would no longer be strait-jacketed by Unkil's alliance and would be free to move its massive assets on its East Coast everywhere, including the IOR.

A free and democratic Cheen would be geopolitical disaster for Bharat because the rivalry is civilizational. In fact, if we looked at things in this light, the only thing cleaving the Confucian civilization is Cheen's communism (just like Islam has cloven civilizational Bharatiya.) Without it, then Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan and the rest of the Far East becomes one frighteningly powerful civilizational block. They are already economically integrated.
I think a democratic Cheen is an oxymoron. If they somehow became democratized, their ideology will also fundamentally change and they will be willing to go half way or be ready for compromises - I would argue that democracy is fundamentally anathema to the current Chinese / CCP policy. If we brought in democracy to China, the concept of tianxia will eventually die out because it will get so diluted. We won't have the problems that we currently face.

PS: I see your point in the cloak of communism in China et al but if we think about it, ASEAN has been trying to become a single block for a long time just like SAARC is, EU is etc etc. Its not so easy particularly when all the member countries are becoming more nationalistic and also voting in more national leaders etc.
The concept of Tianxia (or Imperial Dictat) came 2000 years before the CCP. It will be in force after it is gone.

The East Asian form of democracy we see in Japan, SoKo, Taiwan and Singapore is highly suited for the culture that's why they all run pretty much the same kind of single party dominated government that specializes in national projects and government supported firms -- chaebol, keiretsu. In fact, much like the modern communists in Cheen except with an efficiency that is 10 fold.

Now suppose you are right and democracy moderates Cheen's aggression. Well, we hadn't had a fight with commie Cheen in 55 years anyways. Cheen's power is based on trade and its production. Those things are enhanced by a democratic system (especially in its East Asian form.)

Plus schemes like OBOR won't change. Those are driven by overcapacity in their industrial base as well as geo-politics. Support for OBOR would be greater around the globe. As a democracy, they will be accepted and supported by the Americans, Japanese and Euros.

A democratic Cheen, even not explicitly antagonistic to India, will limit our rise in the global hierarchy much more than a commie one IMHO.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

The other day Supreme HQ was watching "R U smarter than a 5th grader?" There was this School Principal as a competitor. "Capital of India?" "Bangladesh". So well... some Japanese TV-watchers may need it explained that India is a "South Asian Nation". Like the Great Nuclear Central Asian/Arab Mughal Empire of Bakistan, Disputed Territory of CashMore, Chinese colony of Sri Lanka, Capital of India, Bangladesh, and the Maldivian Empire.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by chetak »

Doklam issue: China’s Xi Jinping has a PLA problem

Doklam issue: China’s Xi Jinping has a PLA problem

The Doklam pullbacks suggest that the removed chief of the People Liberation Army’s joint staff department, General Fang Fenghui, was an obstacle to clinching a deal with India and probably was responsible for precipitating the standoff in the first place.

Sep 05, 2017

Brahma Chellaney

Image

Chinese President Xi Jinping stands on a military jeep as he inspects troops of the People's Liberation Army during a military parade in July 2017

The Doklam debate has missed one key element: The mutual withdrawal deal was clinched just after Chinese President Xi Jinping replaced the chief of the People Liberation Army’s (PLA) joint staff department. This topmost position – equivalent to the chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff – was created only last year as part of Xi’s military reforms to turn the PLA into a force “able to fight and win wars”.

The Doklam pullbacks suggest that the removed chief, General Fang Fenghui, was an obstacle to clinching a deal with India and probably was responsible for precipitating the standoff in the first place. Fang was fired just days after he hosted America’s highest-ranking military officer, General Joseph Dunford.

To be sure, this was not the first time that PLA belligerence in the Himalayas imposed diplomatic costs on China. A classic case was what happened when Chinese President Xi Jinping reached India on a state visit in September 2014. Xi arrived on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s birthday with a strange gift for his host — a predawn Chinese military encroachment deep into Ladakh. The encroachment, the worst in many years in terms of the number of intruding troops, overshadowed Xi’s visit.

It is bizarre that the PLA would seek to mar in this manner the visit of its own head of state to a key neighbouring country. Yet Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s earlier visit to New Delhi in 2013 was similarly preceded by a 19-km PLA incursion into another part of Ladakh that lasted three weeks.

Such provocations might suggest that they are intentional, with the Chinese government in the know, thus reflecting a preference for blending soft and hard tactics. But it is also possible that the provocations underscore the continuing “disconnect between the military and the civilian leadership” in China that then U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates had in 2011 warned about.

Xi’s purges of generals and admirals and other reform-related actions have been designed to consolidate his authority over the PLA and ensure that it does not blindside the government. But as Fang’s firing and other latest changes in the PLA leadership highlight, Xi is still working to bring the military fully under his control.

During his 2014 India visit, Xi appeared embarrassed by the accompanying PLA encroachment and assured Modi that he would sort it out upon his return.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Pratyush »

Why are Indian writers treating PLA and CCP as separate entities?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

Pratyush wrote:Why are Indian writers treating PLA and CCP as separate entities?
Because they are separate and do not always see eye-to-eye. Has been so from the Chairman's times.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Kashi »

SSridhar wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Why are Indian writers treating PLA and CCP as separate entities?
Because they are separate and do not always see eye-to-eye. Has been so from the Chairman's times.
But isn't PLA supposed to be subordinate to the CCP rather than PRC? I believe this was pointed out sometime back in this very thread..

They may not see eye to eye, but in the end PLA shall do as the CCP commands..
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by JE Menon »

>> but in the end PLA shall do as the CCP commands..

"the end" is becoming harder and harder to define....
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Though I rarely agree with BC, in this case I must give his piskological knife-twist a 400% rating. YESS! It is PLA that has brought humiliation on the great Chinese Communist Party. The Party that is famous for the LONG MARCH is now lampooned for the LONG RETREAT from Doklam.

OTOH, the PLA has been stabbed in the back by Eleven and his lotus-eater gang living in those exotic tropical gardens while the PLA's brave soldiers gasp for breath as they climb back into the Tibetan Plateau carrying their road-building equipment on the Long Retreat, nursing their aching butts after the soccer practice by the Tibetan Armed Police at Pangong Tso. I think PLA should send a division of tanks into Beijing and Teach A Lesson to the running dogs of the capitalist paper tigers there.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

The China Puzzle - Edit, NYT
Steve Bannon, the former presidential confidante, was as apocalyptic as ever about China on the eve of his trip to Hong Kong. The man who had all but declared “economic war” with China in earlier interviews said to a Times reporter, “A hundred years from now, this is what they’ll remember — what we did to confront China on its rise to world domination.” On arrival, in a speech to a big investor conference, he seemed to have softened a bit, praising China’s leadership and offering hopes that a trade war could be averted.

Mr. Bannon reflects a basic tension in the Trump administration: whether to challenge China (and if so, where and when) or work with it. There is, on the one hand, huge resentment toward Beijing — which Mr. Bannon shares — among those who believe that China has grown its economy at the expense of the working and middle classes. (The focus of his speech was instructive: “American economic nationalism and the populist revolt and Asia,” the three intertwined in his mind.) And then there are those who believe that without China’s help there can be no serious deterrent to North Korea (which fired off another missile near Japan last week), no lasting stability in the South China Sea and the Asian rim as a whole.

This much is true: For the foreseeable future, no relationship is more crucial than that between these two nations. Together, they have a combined population of more than 1.7 billion people. Their economies dwarf all others, they both have nuclear weapons, they both have veto power in the United Nations Security Council. Their appetites and ambitions shape the globe: Together they can make for a more peaceful world; as adversaries, they can make a mess of things.

To some extent, President Trump seems to understand all that. He engaged early with President Xi Jinping, at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and has sought to regularly consult the Chinese leader, including a recent exchange that the president described as a “very strong phone call.” Yet, at the same time, he has failed to articulate a coherent strategy toward China or to achieve significant progress on the many consequential issues. He seems also to lump all China-related issues into one big, menacing ball — trade, tariffs, North Korea — rather than dealing with them separately, and this has added more complications.

Additionally, the administration has been slow to get China experts into senior posts at the White House and State Department; for good or ill, Mr. Bannon was one person with Mr. Trump’s ear who took a big interest in China. Now there is no senior person with close ties to the president to oversee China policy, which does little to foster a consistent policy or reflect well on American leadership.

Against Mr. Trump’s impulsiveness and his espousal of an America First agenda of isolationism and protectionism, Mr. Xi projects a steady hand as he tries to remake the global economic and political order and entice nations into Beijing’s orbit.

Chinese trade is undeniably a big draw for many countries. So is Mr. Xi’s promised, though perhaps quixotic, $1 trillion investment in his One Belt, One Road initiative, an ambitious network of trading routes and development projects — roads, ports, pipelines and the like from China to Africa and Europe — that seems also to have drawn Mr. Bannon’s admiration. Having long operated quietly in Russia’s shadow at the United Nations, the Chinese are also speaking out more forcefully and engaging more robustly across multiple regions, a trend that has accelerated under Mr. Trump.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump, unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, who worked to expand American influence in Asia, has ceded significant ground to China, especially by withdrawing from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership and thus allowing Beijing an opening to set trade rules in the region. The American president will share the world stage with Mr. Xi for the first time this week when both men address the annual United Nations General Assembly.

Can there be robust cooperation? In 2005, when President George W. Bush was in office, Robert Zoellick, then a deputy secretary of state, encouraged China to become a “responsible stakeholder” and help strengthen the Western-designed postwar international system from which it benefited. Yet today more officials and experts are putting China in the adversary category, or leaning toward doing so, not least because of Beijing’s decision to expand its military capability and project it further into the South China Sea.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by vijaykarthik »

Pratyush wrote:Why are Indian writers treating PLA and CCP as separate entities?
Because there are multiple coincident happenings and there is atleast some truth in the assumption. Besides, in China (its the only nation) where the PLA needs to affirm its commitment to CCP (not that defense forces commitment to the party and not to the country). IMHO, if a party wants the defense forces commitment to it, it just means they are a bunch of ruffians who need some show of force to keep them afloat (and also keep watching their back etc).

Reminds me a bit about Paul Krugmans definition of a nation state: an insurance company with a large army. An analogy to the same: China practices it like a private detective agency.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by AdityaM »

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by shiv »

Sounds like a load of bullshit from NDTV
1. A highway to Nepal has been there for years
2. Xigaze is nowhere near Nepal
3. That quote saying that this is "Tibet's first real highway" is complete bullshit
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ramana »


This limitation of just posting headlines leads to wrong conclusions.
Why not post the relevant portion and let the facts speak.

NDTV type press in India is not credible.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Sanju »

Also kindly post that it is from rndtv....i don't want to give them any clicks.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

India, Japan and U.S. present common front - Varghese K George, The Hindu
At a trilateral meeting in New York on Monday, Foreign Ministers of India, Japan and the U.S. endorsed one another’s position on key strategic issues in Asia. While India stood with the U.S. and Japan on the question of North Korea’s nuclear posture, it received support from the two on its position on the China-led One Belt, One Road project, a press release indicated.

“The Ministers emphasised the need for ensuring freedom of navigation, respect for international law and peaceful resolution of disputes... On DPRK (North Korea), the EAM (External Affairs Minister) deplored DPRK’s recent actions and stated that its proliferation linkages must be explored and those involved be held accountable,” it said.

The meeting of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono took place in the New York Palace hotel and lasted for about 30 minutes.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:

This limitation of just posting headlines leads to wrong conclusions.
Why not post the relevant portion and let the facts speak.

NDTV type press in India is not credible.
runditv is not writing for the Indian audience nor are they addressing the Indian audience.

Many foreigners and a lot of NRIs depend on this underbelly of twisted Indian "journalism" for their India news.

They are using the channel to color and bias the foreigner's view of India as a snakepit in real need of civilizing and how unsafe it is as an investment destination.

Every single "journalist" on runditv is a paid presstitute, spewing anti Modi and by extension anti Hindu venom, on the payroll of some anti India organisation or the other, all hiding in plain sight as the persecuted champions of FoE and FoS.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Philip »

The greater threat to India is from Sri Lanka and the Chinese "squat" there for 99 years in the two projects,H'tota Port and the Port City/Fin.City in Colombo.These will become two Chinese administered territories with spl. rights just like the Brits operated out of Hong Kong. The Colombo Port City project will turn into a cesspool of vice ,another Macau,full of casinos,Chinese triads,Chin whores aplenty and financial skullduggery on an intl. scale involving drug running,arms peddling,money laundering,which will make Colombo PC the vice capital of the world...just a few miles away from India.
Just imagine the ability to destabilise India from the south,where we have had venal,rapacious state govts. aplenty,who will welcome this offshore criminal paradise with open "arms",pun intended!
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ashish raval »

SSridhar wrote:India, Japan and U.S. present common front - Varghese K George, The Hindu
At a trilateral meeting in New York on Monday, Foreign Ministers of India, Japan and the U.S. endorsed one another’s position on key strategic issues in Asia. While India stood with the U.S. and Japan on the question of North Korea’s nuclear posture, it received support from the two on its position on the China-led One Belt, One Road project, a press release indicated.

“The Ministers emphasised the need for ensuring freedom of navigation, respect for international law and peaceful resolution of disputes... On DPRK (North Korea), the EAM (External Affairs Minister) deplored DPRK’s recent actions and stated that its proliferation linkages must be explored and those involved be held accountable,” it said.

The meeting of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono took place in the New York Palace hotel and lasted for about 30 minutes.

Looks like Aussies have been neutralised by Chinese or they just think why make a enemy out of nation which is prime bread earner for them by consuming their raw materials or perhaps their govt is already compromised and hence kept out of equation.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nandakumar »

It is high stakes game that Xi is engaged in, in the context of consolidating power in his hands beyond 2022. He has removed the names of two prominent generals of the PLA from the list of delegates for the forthcoming party congress as this article postulates.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/China-up-close/Xi-
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

ashish raval wrote:
SSridhar wrote:India, Japan and U.S. present common front - Varghese K George, The Hindu
Looks like Aussies have been neutralised by Chinese or they just think why make a enemy out of nation which is prime bread earner for them by consuming their raw materials or perhaps their govt is already compromised and hence kept out of equation.
ashish, the Aussies have been pleading for a greater role. They have been asking to be included in Ex. Malabar for quite some time but India has been very cool. Even the Americans have batted for them but India is going very gradually wrt the Aussies. The first bilateral naval exercise just took place this year. But, I think that eventually the Aussies would be there. That would be a compulsion of time, IMO.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by KLNMurthy »

Philip wrote:I have the perfect solution to improving our border infrastructure at record speed and also finding the finance to do so. Our official estimates say that only 25% has been completed with the budget for the whole lot,hence this solution.

Simply outsource most of our border road/rail infrastructure to the Chinese! Their slave labour will do a fab job for us,like the Donald says about the Mexican wall,"China will pay for it too",with 100 yr long-term loans at friendship rates! China than can't complain about India being reluctant about OBOR,etc. China will thus have proven its friendship credentials. The Japanese are giving us a long-term loan of $10B+ for ze bullet train,so why can't China-if it wants to put its money where its mouth is, do something similar for India?
On those lines, why not simply let the Chinese finance our infrastructure and MIC to the tune of a cool few trillion, and when the time comes, simply refuse to pay it back, on the grounds that any deal made with lawless chronic deal breaking de facto savages is not valid. If the Han want it back so much, they can try and fight us for it.

Shouldn't affect our credit with the euro-Americans since their national wealth was built on that very same principle, so surely they'll see the validity of our position.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by KLNMurthy »

Pratyush wrote:Why are Indian writers treating PLA and CCP as separate entities?
The so-called Indian strategic community have a disease of always trying to understand the problems that our enemies are facing instead of focusing on strategies to win.

It is the same with TSP--always bleating that we have to "help" the civilian payees who are supposedly struggling against their military.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by kancha »

nandakumar wrote:It is high stakes game that Xi is engaged in, in the context of consolidating power in his hands beyond 2022. He has removed the names of two prominent generals of the PLA from the list of delegates for the forthcoming party congress as this article postulates.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/China-up-close/Xi-
Link appears to be broken. Pl share again
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

kancha wrote:
nandakumar wrote:It is high stakes game that Xi is engaged in, in the context of consolidating power in his hands beyond 2022. He has removed the names of two prominent generals of the PLA from the list of delegates for the forthcoming party congress as this article postulates.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/China-up-close/Xi-
Link appears to be broken. Pl share again
Kancha, see this: Xi clobbers dissent in final stretch to party congress

A very well informed article. Really up close on China.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nandakumar »

Oops! sorry. Didn't realise that the link was incomplete.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/China- ... -his-reign
SSridhar's link is the article I had in mind.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by kancha »

Thanks. That's a very interesting piece indeed.
What are the odds that Xi might NOT succeed, atleast to the extent he desires?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Sanju »

chetak wrote: runditv is not writing for the Indian audience nor are they addressing the Indian audience.

Many foreigners and a lot of NRIs depend on this underbelly of twisted Indian "journalism" for their India news.

They are using the channel to color and bias the foreigner's view of India as a snakepit in real need of civilizing and how unsafe it is as an investment destination.

Every single "journalist" on runditv is a paid presstitute, spewing anti Modi and by extension anti Hindu venom, on the payroll of some anti India organisation or the other, all hiding in plain sight as the persecuted champions of FoE and FoS.
Bang on... In any discussions with RSS hating Hindus and Indian Christian NRIs, they always point out that it is presented by rndtv and so it is true. They consider rndtv as a neutral source and a voice of truth being suppressed by the Govt. Sadly, both groups are my extended family.

Apologies for the OT.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by anupmisra »

Trump mentioned South China Sea in his nUNGA address.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ashish raval »

SSridhar wrote:
ashish raval wrote: Looks like Aussies have been neutralised by Chinese or they just think why make a enemy out of nation which is prime bread earner for them by consuming their raw materials or perhaps their govt is already compromised and hence kept out of equation.
ashish, the Aussies have been pleading for a greater role. They have been asking to be included in Ex. Malabar for quite some time but India has been very cool. Even the Americans have batted for them but India is going very gradually wrt the Aussies. The first bilateral naval exercise just took place this year. But, I think that eventually the Aussies would be there. That would be a compulsion of time, IMO.
Perhaps govt knows Aussie proximity to Panda and want to keep them at arm's length till they prove the loyalty to Indian ocean. Thy shall cometh!!
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

anupmisra wrote:Trump mentioned South China Sea in his nUNGA address.
He slammed "countries that continue to support and supply" NoKo. Gloves were muzzle was off.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by anupmisra »

anupmisra wrote:Trump mentioned South China Sea in his nUNGA address.
Predictably, the chinis have raised objections.

China hits back at Donald Trump's remark over South China Sea in UN speech
Beijing hit back at US President Donald Trump's veiled criticism of its territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea, countering that the United States was a greater threat to sovereignty.
on Tuesday, Donald Trump decried "threats to sovereignty" in Ukraine and the resource-rich South China Sea, without explicitly mentioning Russia or China.
"For some time now, some countries have used the pretext of freedom of navigation to bring their planes and fleets near the South China Sea," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said. "Actually, I think this is the behaviour that has threatened the sovereignty of South China Sea countries," Lu told a regular news briefing.
The spokesman also called for "restraint" in response to Trump's warning that he will "totally destroy" North Korea if it threatens the US or its allies.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 765543.cms
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Muns »

Our attempt to needle the Chinese further into talking of a Independent Tibet ; Appreciate any feedback so that upcoming videos will reflect changes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaBlegDern8&t=39s

http://www.India-Aware.com
Last edited by Muns on 21 Sep 2017 10:54, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

A time of strategic partnerships - Rajesh Basrur & Sumitha Narayanan Kutty, The Hindu
India pulled out all the stops last week to welcome Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe on the occasion of his fourth annual summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The India-Japan “Special Strategic and Global Partnership” — a designation and status New Delhi accords to no other partner — has reached new heights under the stewardship of the two leaders.

The rise of China and questions about America’s commitment in Asia have drawn them into a deepening security-cum-economic relationship.
How deep is it? As Mr. Abe wrapped up his visit last Thursday, speculation arose on the possibility of an evolving “alliance” between the two countries given just how much their interests converge. Such analyses, though pointing in the right direction, may not capture the true nature of the India-Japan “strategic partnership.”

The India-Japan synergy has two key elements. Japan is investing heavily in strengthening its critical infrastructure to enhance its economic and potential defence capabilities. Simultaneously, the two countries have begun working on a joint infrastructure development and connectivity drive traversing the Indian Ocean, from Myanmar to Sri Lanka to Iran and encompassing the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor. On defence matters, Japan and India have agreed to establish regular consultations in the “2+2” format of their defence and foreign ministries. Their navies exercise regularly together with the U.S. Navy. And negotiations on arms sales — notably, the ShinMaywa US-2i amphibious aircraft — are on. Japanese investment in the strategically placed Andaman and Nicobar Islands is likely to help New Delhi establish a major security sentinel in the eastern Indian Ocean.

Strategic partnerships

But this is not an alliance in the making. Alliances are passé and only a few continue gingerly from the Cold War era. We live in a world today driven by “strategic partnerships”. States find themselves in an interdependent system where the traditional power politics of yesteryear doesn’t quite fit. After all, every major relationship characterised by strategic tension such as U.S.-China, Japan-China, India-China is simultaneously one of economic gain. The U.S. and China are each other’s chief trading partners, while China ranks at the top for Japan and India. Besides, India might confront China at Doklam but it also wants Chinese investment.

Strategic partnerships carry certain characteristic features falling short of alliances. First, unlike alliances, they do not demand commitments to a partner’s disputes with other countries. New Delhi does not take a strong position on Japan’s territorial disputes with China and Russia. Likewise, Tokyo does not openly side with India in its quarrels with China and Pakistan. For instance, Japan’s reaction to the Doklam stand-off, though critical of China implicitly, did not go beyond saying that “all parties involved should not resort to unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force.” India’s reaction to the verdict of the arbitral tribunal on the South China Sea last year, urging “all parties to show utmost respect for the UNCLOS”, reflected a similar dispensation despite Japan’s push for a stronger statement. There was also no explicit mention of the South China Sea in the latest joint statement.

Strategic partnership means, first, that both retain the flexibility to continue political engagement and economic cooperation with their common adversary. Second, they avoid “entrapment”, or being dragged into a partner’s disputes and potentially into conflict, which happened in the First World War. Third, regular high-level political and military interactions facilitate a collaborative approach to strategic policies over a range of economic and military activities. India and Japan, for instance, are not only moving forward on economic and defence cooperation but are also cooperating on other important issues such as civil nuclear energy and Security Council reform.

Given that resort to war is undesirable owing to economic interdependence as well as the presence of nuclear weapons, the aim of major strategic partnerships is to strengthen defences against marginal conflict, convey a determination to stand up to a strategic adversary and, overall, generate a persuasive environment that discourages potential intimidation. Occasionally, as between India and China, a “strategic partnership” is a way of opening a channel of communication and minimal cooperation intended to stabilise and develop the potential for a détente and conceivably something warmer. In this particular case, not much has been accomplished thus far, but it remains a low-cost option for expanding cooperation in the event the political fundamentals of the relationship show an upward swing.


Looking ahead

India’s two main strategic partnerships, with the U.S. and Japan, are dovetailing nicely. For New Delhi, the U.S. will remain its chief backer both to enhance India’s conventional defence capabilities and to draw political support in global political institutions, for example in components of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Japan, in the meantime, is becoming its primary collaborator in developing its economic sinews and for building a geostrategic network that offers Indian Ocean states an alternative to dependence on China. Together, the emerging structure of triangular cooperation should give Beijing pause to think.

Rajesh Basrur is Professor of International Relations and Sumitha Narayanan Kutty is Associate Research Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School for International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
vijaykarthik
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by vijaykarthik »

3 different topics:

a. Nice link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbul ... ac10595d1e

b. On Xi trying to change things unilaterally: Wang Qishan is back! He was not in the public view for about 60 days and he's back now. Speculations about him being part of the new CPC galore! (Meeting slated to be conducted on Oct 18 - and as always very little news of whats expected et al)

c. Abe called for fresh elections last week. I do hope he gets reelected.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

vijaykarthik wrote:. . . Wang Qishan is back! He was not in the public view for about 60 days and he's back now.
Wang Qishan was busy with three prominent corruption cases, all in support of Xi: Fang Fenghui (Chief of the Joint Staff) and Zhang Hang (a member of the Central Military Commission, CMC) and earlier Sun Zhengcai. Now that all three are done, he has some free time perhaps.

Wang Qishan is the pointman for Xi Jinping for purging his opponents. Bo Xilai was also undone by him.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by vijaykarthik »

^ Agree. Guess that was the reason why he didn't show up.

I will not be surprised if he was responsible for booting out Jiang Zemin too.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

Turn the page to a new chapter - H.E. Luo Zhaohui, Chinesee Ambassador to India, The Hindu

Note the 'H.E.' prefix to the Ambassador's name. Does The Hindu do it for all other ambassadors who write article in it?
In September, Xiamen city of China not only hosted the BRICS Summit, but also witnessed an especially important meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This was the first after the Dong Lang (Doklam) stand-off. As Chinese Ambassador to India, I had the privilege of participating in the meeting. I felt that it sent a critical message of reconciliation and cooperation to the world in a timely manner.

Surpassing expectations

The outcomes were beyond expectations. Both leaders agreed to start a new chapter. An important consensus has been reached to enhance mutual trust, focus on cooperation, and manage differences. Both leaders also agreed to conduct closer high-level exchanges, revitalise a series of dialogues and mechanisms, as well as promote youth and educational cooperation.

President Xi emphasised that we should be each other’s development opportunities rather than be threats to each other — “dragon and elephant should dance together”. PM Modi shared the same idea and believes that the political effects of “making one plus one eleven” can be achieved in China-India relations.

The meeting was originally scheduled for half an hour but lasted for an hour and 25 minutes. This shows that both sides are willing to devote enough time to conducting a comprehensive and in-depth exchange of views. President Xi said that Dangal’s success has increased the affinity of the Chinese to the people of India, while PM Modi also highly praised the great success of Where Has the Time Gone, a film named after a speech by President Xi and which was co-produced by artists from the five BRICS member states. {All nonsense}

Common aspirations

In the one year since I assumed my new responsibility in India, I have witnessed ups and downs in China-India relations. Now I am in a better position to understand the common aspirations and potential of our two countries for cooperation and development. These understandings are based on the following aspects.

First, economic and trade cooperation are gaining momentum. Last year, the trade volume between China and India exceeded $70 billion. China has been for many years the largest trading partner of India. More than 500 Chinese companies have invested and started business in India with a total investment of over $5 billion. Many Indian enterprises of IT, pharmacy and consultancy have entered the Chinese market. For instance, there are more than a hundred Indian software engineers living in the Sino-India Software Industry Park in Linyi city, Shandong province.

Second, people-to-people exchanges are thriving. Mutual visits between our two countries have exceeded one million. Practising yoga, drinking Darjeeling black tea, and watching Bollywood movies have become fashionable among the Chinese youth. Yunnan Minzu University has established the India-China Yoga College. We are also working to hold the Annual Indian Tourism Conference in Yunnan province.

Third, local exchanges are booming. China and India have established 14 pairs of sister cities and provinces. PM Modi made frequent visits to Guangdong province when he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat. I also visited many Indian States and was encouraged by their enthusiasm for cooperation with China. I coordinated the attendance of Assam representatives at the Hangzhou International Tea Expo, and helped the Kerala government introduce rubber dam from China.

Fourth, our two countries have maintained close high-level communications. Home town diplomacy initiated by President Xi and PM Modi has become a much-told story. Both leaders have met more than a dozen times on bilateral and multilateral occasions.

Now, China’s economy is stable and our reform has entered a crucial stage. India is also accelerating its reform. Make in India, Digital India, Startup India and other initiatives have yielded outcomes. Significant measures like the GST Act have been implemented. Faced with similar development objectives and common challenges such as “anti-globalisation” and trade protectionism, China and India should work together.

I believe that China and India should work towards the same direction and jointly implement the Xiamen consensus reached by our leaders. We should work towards a sound and healthy bilateral relationship by focussing on cooperation, narrowing and resolving differences. Just like Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, both sides should make sure that China-India relations do not derail, confront, or go out of control, and make the Himalayan region a new highland for Asia’s development.

Both sides should set long-term goals for the development of our bilateral relations. We can consider negotiating the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and India, restarting the negotiations of China-India Free Trade Agreement, striving for early harvests on boundary issues, and actively exploring the strategic synergy between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and India’s ‘Act East Policy’.

Both sides should appropriately manage differences, get under control the problems left over by history such as issues related to boundary and the Dalai Lama, while finding solutions to new problems.

Luo Zhaohui is Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to India
All hot gas, usual pious sentiments by China. When it comes to actions, the Chinese will be diametrically different.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by deejay »

^^^ Sanctimonious preaching.

He spoke nothing on the negatives like Chinese support in UN for Paki Terror Stars, blocking India's entry to NSG, economic issues of Indian pharma sector and other industries in accessing Chinese market. H.E. was strangely silent on Chinese toll levied on Indian transport to Mongolia recently while advising us to get under control "issues related to boundary and the Dalai Lama".

The reference to "Early Harvest Projects" is similar to the CPEC language and Indians need to be cautious of the chameleons changing colours.

He has very conveniently brushed the thorns under the carpet and The Hindu has dutifully reproduced the speech by the H.E.
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