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India - South & North Korea Thread

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UlanBatori
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Sep 2017 00:48

All very interesting, but it comes down to a Cuba moment again, hain? Proxy has the real maal practically ready to launch. Seconds ticking away before it gets on a full Triad and subs disappear into the wild blue etc.

Is Trump just going to knuckle under or kick the sh1t out of Proxy with MAD guaranteed at puppeteer?
It is not Kim Un who is cornered, it is DT. He HAS to strike and strike immediately. cheen are not going to nuke their best market while holding so much in Treasury bonds, hain?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Prem » 22 Sep 2017 00:53

kapilrdave wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Kapil: Do u see a way out where NoKo is forced to denuke, de-mijjile and de-sub without a war? How can it be
In all this India needs to find its own opportunities and exploit them to full extent. If played well, we can milk both roos and joos :D .

Choos both Joos and Roos for right military and economic stuff .
But are you guys saying NOKO have better Maal than India ? Also i was under impression that Maal on Sea going vessels require special proofing or it catch cold goes poof .

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Sep 2017 00:55

Lots of Made In Cheen maal that fits on subs, surely.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Sep 2017 04:09

North Korea Calls Trump "Deranged", Americans Yawn At Understatement
..and said the United States president will "pay dearly" for his threats.. Un's comments came after President Trump signed an executive order that would enable the United States to sanction individual companies and institutions that finance trade with North Korea... 2017 has been a rapid year of progress for North Korea, with its 22 missiles fired over 15 tests since February. That includes the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missile, launched over the summer.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Sep 2017 06:21

This 'roo guy is sufficiently wacko to be my kind.This link is from July 2017; he has a new article (Sep. 5) after the thermonuke test. Only big hole I see is that he ignores the cheen pedigree of the NoKo weapons.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Sep 2017 08:19

As expected: NoKo to explode a H-bum in Pacific, atmospheric mijjile demo

Ramana, question on timing. When a country first "tests"/ demonstrates, how many of the same item is one expected to believe that it has? To me it seems for "testing" if done for development, is done with Item Serial #0001, before one invests in building many more. But "demo" may be a sample taken out of a consignment.

In the former case, the smart move is to hit before any production occurs, but in the latter case, how many items do the NoKos have? Either way it seems that the wise move is to hit NOW.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 22 Sep 2017 13:32

Famous old saying,advice from father to son,"never wrestle with someone below your intellectual level,it like wrestling with a pig.He will take you into the gutter"

KIm:
Donald Trump is "deranged", according to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un who warned the US President would "pay dearly" for his threats against his country.
Describing the US leader as "a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire", Mr Kim said his counterpart was "unfit to hold the prerogative of supreme command of a country."
:mrgreen:

The Q that the world is asking itself is who's the pig? Dear Young Leader ,Kim no. 3 or the Donald? The Donald has been the subject of further ridicule just days ago when he called "Namibia" ,"Nambia" :rotfl: He probably lost his way between Namibia and Zambia! From their similar threats and diatribes,this spat between KIm and the Donald,looks like an Asia-America sumo wrestling contest,except that in Grand Sumo Japanese style,there are very strict rules.Kicking,punching,tripping,butting,biting,scratching,elbowing,spitting,kneeing,etc. are all haram. This unmentionable behaviour has been amply displayed by both Kim-III and the Donald,ech trying to outdo the other.I congratulate Trump though.Elton John's iconic song "Rocketman" has been given a new lease of life and meaning too! They're both "gonna be high s a kite by then..."

And I think it's gonna be a long long time
'Till touch down brings me round again to find
I'm not the man they think I am at home
Oh no no no I'm a rocket man…

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 22 Sep 2017 14:41

EXCLUSIVE Russian Report from inside N Korea: Do Not Underestimate North Koreans!


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 22 Sep 2017 14:43

Some interesting points:

The Korean state is 3250 years old.
They had book printing 320 years before Gutenberg.
Luxury jeeps on the streets of Pyongyang suggest the country is not as poor as people say.
Info about and footage of Kim's pretty, pop-star wife
Russian population centers of Vladivostok and Hassan are a few miles away - if war comes to N. Korea, particularly nuclear war, it will be a disaster for Russia too.
North and South Koreans think of themselves as one nation, one race, and both are fiercely nationalistic and look down on other races. The two countries are much closer emotionally than people in the West realize. Foreigners are enemies in North and South alike.
N. Korea has a complex caste system which is officially supported. It has 51 castes.
N. Korea abandoned Marxism in the 1970s!
Why the energy embargo won't hurt the North much (they have plenty of coal)
A look inside a typical Korean apartment.
Government decisions are made collectively - it is not an autocracy headed by Kim.
Government and army extremely rational in their behavior.
A very tough, united people prepared to fight for their lives. No 5th column. People trained for nuclear war, not intimidated by it.
N. Korea has diplomatic relations with 161 nations, but not with US.
N. Koreans are ready to fight, and not afraid of war. Impossible to bring this proud people to their knees.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby chola » 22 Sep 2017 14:51

^^^ People who are actually willing to fight. Cool! We might actually see a war this time. :-o

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby kapilrdave » 22 Sep 2017 15:59

UlanBatori wrote:Kapilji, I would think that promise must have been conveyed to Eleven already over the phone. But how to convince when half the senators are in Beijing's pocket and most of the CEOs have their "hearts & minds won over" by Beijing?

Posturing saar. There are many ways to convince. Like India convinced cheen in doklam that it is itching to play holi with cheen. Like Modi shouts over pak sponsored terror in every hole of the world which would convince pak that we are dead serious about paki terror and we will hit them whenever we can. Every time a terror strike happens in India, we don't blame taliban, hizbul, IS etc... although our intelligence agencies and even pak blames some particular group. We hold pak responsible directly.

Trump is being foolish in this regard. He is not holding cheen accountable at all. He indulges into idiotic war of words with the korean pig. As if that's not enough, DT seeks cheen's "help" in taming NoKo :lol: . China is surely doing :rotfl: on trump. Even they would not have expected themselves for so much generosity.

So, as a first, DT should stop talking to Kim and start blaming cheen for everything. Slowly up the ante against cheen and give them real scare. Deploy china specific weapons, leak their secret info, hack their servers, ask Japan if it wants help in "civil nuclear program" :mrgreen: :twisted: ... and so on... If US doesn't do this, china is not going to stop here. Already kim is threatening to light up pacific.

US is losing time. The war will get bloodier as the time passes. They still have time to resolve the issue without the imminent war. For that china needs to be given some fat bamboos.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby kapilrdave » 22 Sep 2017 16:08

Rudradev wrote:
ramana wrote:Wen Lee supplied designs...
.


Now this is all making sense.
....
Enter Kim Jong Un. And you know the rest.

This theory would look plausible if NoKo did not do the dance and song after the test. In a genuine test you always want to keep it as low profile as possible. Even if the test is performed by your puppy. You don't fire an ICBM right after nuke test. And this test has not come out of the blue. NoKo has been systematically provoking US for some time now. They are luring US into a bloody war.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby kapilrdave » 22 Sep 2017 16:19

shiv wrote:
kapilrdave wrote: No sane nation can do such stuff the way NoKo is doing.
<snip>
aren't these too risky assumptions
<snip>
Again, big assumption for any sane country's comfort.

The game of chicken that NoKo is playing is always based on risky assumptions. Anyone with a fancy for betting might actually make this bet and make the US blink first.

Actually these are not risks but madness as I explained in after those 'risk' related sentences. My point is only that this madness is being "managed". So unless the puppeteer is kicked, no point kicking the puppets.

shiv wrote:
kapilrdave wrote:
But even if we go by that, this is the best case scenario for US. US wouldn't mind a conventional war with NoKo at all. They can still pre-empt nukes with conventional weapons. They can still inflict an unrecoverable damage to NoKo conventionally. Such a war will boost US's conventional deterrence against all rogue states.

That means NoKo has successfully deterred the US from sticking to its own first use policy and that Kim has got it spot on. But conventional war won't cut it IMO.

Exactly! That is my original point. That US has lost its deterrence because china has outsourced its own risk to NoKo. Now US has to rebuild its deterrence by confronting china straightaway. We have come full circle in this debate.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Sep 2017 16:43

I have not figured out why NoKo is provoking US. It is very clear that US is in a calibrated provocation game - the noise went way down for a couple of months, trump said his forces have weapons "locked and loaded" and seemed to keep quiet, and now it is at daily level - but note that Trump is systematically exhausting "diplomatic options". NickiMohterma has already said "turning over to Mattis". So why is NoKo racing to war? If it is only to test weapons, he would do it as quietly as possible. So there is some method behind the madness, or is there?

OTOH, the "leaks" from DupliCity are all about "no good military options". "don't want war".

Let's think back to Saddam's threats of Mother Of All Wars. Yeah, if the war had been fought as he thought it would be....
My take is that NoKo is trying to avoid war by barking loudly. GOTUS is on the one hand, egging him on to make the one clear red-line overstep that "justifies" the war to the US voter. On the other hand, the decision has been made that war is the only course, so encouraging NoKo with talk of nuclear weapons.
A Pacific open-water HBum may be a red-line provocation. 'Ideally' some US casualties might excite the US voter base much more, but I hope that does not happen just to wake up idiots.

Reading the 'Roo assessment that I posted above, I came away with the feeling that the pessimistic assessment had failed. I agree with the guy that war is about the only option, and the risk is much more manageable than made out there.

Just to make it clear - all the talk of hundreds of thousands of dead in Seoul is so much baloney. Artillery barrage will be very short-lived, and if the war is timed well the artillery threat will be removed long before Seoul population returns to the city. Seoul is densely populated, true, but it's not as if people were standing out in the open shoulder-to-shoulder.

I think cheen will see to it that the Strategic Assets are removed to prevent the sorts of Armageddon scenarios with death tolls in the hundreds of millions, New Clear Winter etc. IMO they are all gone on the trains to cheen already - except maybe for the Hbum I see bum that is being readied now.

The 'roo's scenarios about NoKo subs sinking US ships is also far-fetched: the reverse will probably be the first step - watch for a particularly shrill rant from NoKo in the next couple of days.

Game the thing through, and economic losses for cheen are >>>> those for US. Internal power struggle + exports drop through the floor + currency loses value + oil supplies cut off. Plus a liberal dose of American "help" to Splittists, enough to seriously raise costs to PLA. A thorough cleanup of cheen influence in US, all the $B of 'investment' into Senators' pockets wasted. Cheen will probably take over US assets in cheen, which would be unwise because the favor would be returned 100-fold. OK, US real estate market would crash (duh!!! And so would Mongolian pennies invested there.. :shock: ). If the war goes "well", USN will use the opportunity to kick cheen out of all the SCS islands, maybe trash Hainan as well and do a SOF vijit to the bases at the south tip of Myanmar.

Anyway, been nice being on Pee Aref and exchanging chai-biskoot with everyone here - if the lights go out all over anytime now, and mushroom clouds rise over Ulan Bator with me in a "distributed vapor" state. We are much closer to nuclear war today than we were when the dumbasses tried to take over the Kremlin, to bring Yeltsin to power (BTW, wasn't that "coup" a western-organized false flag? Whatever happened to the "coup leaders", do u know? Not that it will matter...)

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 22 Sep 2017 17:14

kapilrdave wrote:Exactly! That is my original point. That US has lost its deterrence because china has outsourced its own risk to NoKo. Now US has to rebuild its deterrence by confronting china straightaway. We have come full circle in this debate.

Confronting China because of NoKo threats is the part that does not make sense to me. To me it sounds like denial and blaming China for a real problem and asking them to take care of it. China will do nothing. What will the US do?

This is a bit like your question about a Taliban nuke. We would get nothing by confronting China, the USA or Saudi Arabia if the Talibs nuked us. But drawing an India parallel is a mistake. It only diverts form the NoKo issue.

I agree that China has played a long term game better than the US. The US imposed "security guarantees" on South Korea, Taiwan and Japan while they developed. China simply made it easy for NoKo to have its own security. In fact the US may well back down and in the medium term get Japan and South Korea to go nuclear. That would IMO be a much better option than getting into war with NoKo and the worse option - war with China.

If South Korea and Japan have their own nukes and maybe even Taiwan - it will be the end of western sponsored nuclear nonproliferation regimes. But those regimes are dead anyway. NoKo may just be ringing in a new world order where the US is simply unable to dominate the game. The US has always played a game where its dominance has to be implicitly accepted or it will hit back. But it has never got itself into situation where it actually has to fight someone who can harm the US. Until 9-11. Since then the US has been in too many wars and Europe is getting tired of being an ally and the US is getting tired of sponsoring European security - something that it "generously" offered after WW2. Now the US is straining at the seams trying to deal with NoKo while it sits with forces in Korea, Taiwan and Japan and the Pacific Islands. Destroying entire nations is not going to happen without nuclear war. And NoKo is promising the US with at least one nuclear hit and perhaps Japan too. And that will affect the very nations that the US is ostensibly giving "security guarantees"

If Doklam was a very minor tremor of an India standing up to China, NoKo may be a tremblor bringing US dominance down. Blaming and hitting China won't cut it.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby kapilrdave » 22 Sep 2017 18:02

shiv wrote:
kapilrdave wrote:Exactly! That is my original point. That US has lost its deterrence because china has outsourced its own risk to NoKo. Now US has to rebuild its deterrence by confronting china straightaway. We have come full circle in this debate.

Confronting China because of NoKo threats is the part that does not make sense to me. To me it sounds like denial and blaming China for a real problem and asking them to take care of it. China will do nothing. What will the US do?

US's options are few. And deterring NoKo is definitely not one of them. The war is imminent at near to moderately distant future date. If ("if" because UBji wouldn't agree with me) US is scared of NoKo's nukes today then how will they fight tomorrow? US's only option is to fight a guaranteed conventional war. But there is no such guarantee. So the solution must be out of war.

What is that solution? I don't know. The only solution I can think of is to scare off china which will ultimately calm its mad dog. I gave a few options to do this earlier. Economic measures are also there. They can even "accident" chinese bases like hambantota, some chinese sub in SCS could meet with an accident... if there is a will...

One thing I'm 400% sure is that when china sees a war on its own land, it will back off.

shiv wrote:This is a bit like your question about a Taliban nuke. We would get nothing by confronting China, the USA or Saudi Arabia if the Talibs nuked us. But drawing an India parallel is a mistake. It only diverts form the NoKo issue.

In an ideal world we should be confronting both china and US. But we can't for obvious reason. We will do it in future when we can. But US is not bound by such limitations.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 22 Sep 2017 19:41

kapilrdave wrote: If ("if" because UBji wouldn't agree with me) US is scared of NoKo's nukes today then how will they fight tomorrow?

This is how I see it.

Everyone is scared of nukes. No one wants to be nuked. No one wants to say "Hey we lost just one city but we nuked the other guy to hell. We won." There will be no real winners but the warfighting sides and those who feel the fallout will be the biggest losers.

The question that follows from this assertion of mine is "How come NoKo is not behaving in this way? Does NoKo think it can get away against the US?"

If I put myself in Kim's (and his advisers') place I would think like this:

I will challenge the US today. At best the US will back down. US power decreases and my own leeway, power and influence increases.

But what if the US nukes the crap out of me? Of course I will be dead (or I will survive in caves) but how will that help the US?
  • First the US will once again have attacked us with nukes and devastated yet another country
  • They would have got themselves into yet another mess from which they will not be able to get out easily
  • Both China and Russia will understand that the US is not only dangerous but willing to use nukes and will be ready to nuke the US, knowing that deterrence is dead
  • Since the US has used nukes once again it will be a signal to all other nations that unless they arm themselves with nukes - they can all get bullied by powerful nations and the current "International order" set up by the US will collapse
  • NoKo's own own nuke will hit at least Japan and maybe the US or Guam. The mess will have to be cleaned up by the US
  • The US economy and the international economy will take a huge hit. Stock markets will plunge to record low levels. Economies will crash
  • Does the US understand all this? I am sure they do

The long and short of it is as follows:

No war, US backs down.
    Noko gets 1 point.
    US gets -1 because it is the great power that has backed down
War happens, NoKo destroyed, US/Japan hit + lots of resistance and fighting in Korea:
    NoKo gets -1.
    US also gets -1 because of the after effects of nuke war

In other words the US loses both ways. NoKo has a 50% chance of winning. US has no chance of coming out unscathed unless they hold out, bide their time and get Korea and Japan to nuclearize. The US still loses if that happens

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Dipanker » 22 Sep 2017 19:56

kapilrdave wrote:In an ideal world we should be confronting both china and US.


That is your notion of an "ideal world" ?

In a truly "ideal world" we shouldn't have to confront anybody!

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 22 Sep 2017 20:06

Ironically, NoKo has done to the US what Pakistan did to India.

The US was complicit in allowing Pakistan to get nukes and funded Pakistan through its worst times- so I do harbour a sense of Schadenfreude. India has not "seen Pakistan through" but has pulled itself up enough to face up to China and Pakistan while the US is getting knocked out of the game.

Noko is a headache that the US cannot solve by nuking or hitting NoKo. That is my take on the issue. The US will have to deal with NoKo the way India dealt with Pakistan. India had to accept a nuclear Pakistan and all its crowing while silently waiting to pull forward.

The US can do nothing in the short term. In the long term the US will have to help check China. Seeing the US check China will be a "cup of joy runneth over" moment for me. Both nations have acted like mofos with us and both will have to sort each other out.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 22 Sep 2017 20:08

Austin wrote:EXCLUSIVE Russian Report from inside N Korea: Do Not Underestimate North Koreans!


A very informative video, thanks Austin

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Dipanker » 22 Sep 2017 20:22

WoPo syndicated article on NDTV, enjoy!

Short History Of 'Dotard,' Insult Kim Jong Un Used Against Trump
"I will surely and definitely tame the deranged U.S. dotard with fire," he declared in an unusually direct and angry statement published Thursday by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby kapilrdave » 22 Sep 2017 20:24

Dipanker wrote:
kapilrdave wrote:In an ideal world we should be confronting both china and US.


That is your notion of an "ideal world" ?

In a truly "ideal world" we shouldn't have to confront anybody!

Of course. That would be the commies free world.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Amber G. » 22 Sep 2017 21:02

Not following the thread.. and generally I do not comment on every strange narrative but ....
Rudradev wrote:
ramana wrote:Wen Lee supplied designs...
.


Now this is all making sense.

Wen Ho Lee, a Chinese-American scientist, transferred the W88 warhead technology to China in 1999. He was apprehended by DOE. But then for some unexplained reason, the Clinton White House, Madeline Halfbright etc. stepped in and deliberately stifled the investigation (in true Clintonista style, virtue-signaling pretexts such as "racial profiling of innocent Chinese-American" were used to cast doubt on the integrity of the investigating agency and, by extension, throw mud on the case they had built).

Ramana and Rudradev and others -
This narrative is simply wrong. I encourage to check *any* reputable source as this case was clear racial profiling, (and no evidence *at all* of any *real* wrong-doing - even after all these years) which ACTUALLY sent shivers down many Indian origin scientists like me too. I know the case (and many involved) too closely.. and many of us were actively involved and interested to see how to avoid this kind of abuse.

Please note, among other things (please do read reputable sources to get full story)

- US President issued a public apology to Lee (over his treatment by the federal government during the investigation.)

- Judge (James A. Parker) apologized to Lee for the unfair manner in which he was held in custody by the executive branch and for being led by the executive branch to order his detention, stating that he was led astray by the executive branch through its Department of Justice, by its FBI, and its United States attorney. He formally denounced the government for abuse of power in its prosecution of its case.

-"top decision makers in the executive branch...have embarrassed our entire nation and each of us who is a citizen" - quote from Federal judge who presided the case.
(You can see the above quote, for example here: http://www.cnn.com/2006/LAW/05/22/scotus.wenholee/

Wen successfully sued and got damages, from US govt, and those who published fake stories.

Anyway, IMO, one can learn more about "physics" by his text book on applied physics (which he wrote while in prison) then DDM type media.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 22 Sep 2017 23:23

shiv wrote:
kapilrdave wrote: If ("if" because UBji wouldn't agree with me) US is scared of NoKo's nukes today then how will they fight tomorrow?

This is how I see it.

Everyone is scared of nukes. No one wants to be nuked. No one wants to say "Hey we lost just one city but we nuked the other guy to hell. We won." There will be no real winners but the warfighting sides and those who feel the fallout will be the biggest losers.

The question that follows from this assertion of mine is "How come NoKo is not behaving in this way? Does NoKo think it can get away against the US?"

If I put myself in Kim's (and his advisers') place I would think like this:

I will challenge the US today. At best the US will back down. US power decreases and my own leeway, power and influence increases.

But what if the US nukes the crap out of me? Of course I will be dead (or I will survive in caves) but how will that help the US?
  • First the US will once again have attacked us with nukes and devastated yet another country
  • They would have got themselves into yet another mess from which they will not be able to get out easily
  • Both China and Russia will understand that the US is not only dangerous but willing to use nukes and will be ready to nuke the US, knowing that deterrence is dead
  • Since the US has used nukes once again it will be a signal to all other nations that unless they arm themselves with nukes - they can all get bullied by powerful nations and the current "International order" set up by the US will collapse
  • NoKo's own own nuke will hit at least Japan and maybe the US or Guam. The mess will have to be cleaned up by the US
  • The US economy and the international economy will take a huge hit. Stock markets will plunge to record low levels. Economies will crash
  • Does the US understand all this? I am sure they do

The long and short of it is as follows:

No war, US backs down.
    Noko gets 1 point.
    US gets -1 because it is the great power that has backed down
War happens, NoKo destroyed, US/Japan hit + lots of resistance and fighting in Korea:
    NoKo gets -1.
    US also gets -1 because of the after effects of nuke war

In other words the US loses both ways. NoKo has a 50% chance of winning. US has no chance of coming out unscathed unless they hold out, bide their time and get South Korea and Japan to nuclearize. The US still loses if that happens



IOW, NoKo has changed the game from a sequential escalation game to a concurrent game.
This is what the big nuke test and ICBM tests have done.
UB please understand what shiv has pointed out.
You are still thinking of a sequential game where its a if ...then...

The game has changed and many US experts except the ones in government have not understood this.

If you note I did not underline South Korea and Japan. There will be no winners if that happens as it becomes a multiplayer concurrent game which has n^2 possibility.

The next escalation that NoKo will do, actually its CBM for deterrence, is a missile test with a fuze function test in the Pacific.
This is done regularly by the Anglo-Saxon powers.

This is to make the fence sitters realize its concurrent game and there is no payoff where one side will be a winner.

*Shiv, I commend you for using simple game theory which is natural for Indians but gets complex mathematics for Westerners.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 22 Sep 2017 23:24

AmberG, What is the title of the book? For I am an ever learner.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Sep 2017 23:39

Sorry, but I think more like DT (just saying that to inspire many postors here..), All these high-falutin' theories are no good for me. Been there, heard that, it used to be Saddam's Nuclear and Chemical/Biological Arsenals that were going to devastate all the Middle East and Oirope.

Best strategy in front of me is Hit Right Now. With fully conventional (meaning no WMD). Tactical nukes are arrayed in SoKo to convince the NoKo artillery not to commit national soosai. THAAD is to stop NBC missiles. Take those two fears out, and US holds the military advantage, so use it NOW, not 6 months from now when there may be 50 cheen H-Bums aimed at CONUS/Japan.

So IMO, war either happens in next month, or not for years. It may next come when the chinese invade the Phillippines or Hawaii. But my bet is that we are looking at the last days before the Second Korean War.

Stock market? IMO, once noko is trashed, stocks will zoom in all East Asian non-chinese/noko economies. Same in US.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 22 Sep 2017 23:41

Ok. But DT is not thinking like you.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Yayavar » 23 Sep 2017 01:25

Arm oneself with nukes is a signal already out there. Saddam and Gaddhafi's souls are ever-tormented by leaving that out. The nuking of noko will actually say, even with nukes no escape unless have already at sophisticated level. What opprobrium has yoo-ess faced for the death of a million plus Iraqis and the decimation in Libya even if one leaves out the unnecessary chaos in Syria or justifies the miseries in Afghanistan. Rebuilding NoKo will cause more money to be minted by a few connected ones. The only thing that holds umreeka back is the possible harm to SK/Japan and US cities.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Sep 2017 01:32

Possible harm to US cities is exponentially less today than 6 mo or 2 years from now. Beyond that is surrender, because traditional US advantage has always been (a) two oceans as protective barriers and (b) overwhelming technological and industrial might. Against that, the overwhelming DISadvantage is lack of people-power, compared to the overpopulated adversaries in Asia or even Oirope. OK, Russia is underpop, but not when all Warsaw Pact was included.
So it is hit today, or surrender. The USA is cornered and faces a clear and present, existential threat. The Barbarian Hordes are at the doorstep, threatening genocide and enslavement. As Whitney Houston (pbuh) crooned:
Gimmeeee one... moment in time
When all of mah nightmares are 30 mins away..
And the answers are all up to meeeeee!

That's it. 9 months into his Presidency, DT faces the choice:
Give the order for a million deaths today. Hesitate and face surrender tomorrow.

Nothing in his training as real estate operator would have prepared him for this.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 23 Sep 2017 01:41

Or there is this option of kabuki theater, where China and the US join hands to ensure that the US gets "concessions" without losing face, and without a war. There is no way for the US to come out of this without looking like a weakling...about time too. Maybe people will stop pretending that the US is superpower. It never was and bucking to China-NoKo shenanigans with a face saver will just make that all too obvious.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Sep 2017 01:45

Guys, if the NoKo nuclear caper gets away free, next to nuclearize could be Venezuela, ending the Monroe Doctrine. At that point, the US would be seen to be as powerful as Switzerland. Swaziland.

Cannot be allowed to happen.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 23 Sep 2017 01:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2017 01:45

Nor anyone. Its lonely at the top.
What training did JFK have when he faced Cuban Missile Crisis?

His caution later proved the right choice as the Soviets had launch on attack authorization.

What training the US leaders from Eisenhower had when facing the Soviet Union?
Of George Bush when the FSU had the failed coup in 1991?
That was close to midnight.

Facing nukes is not same thing.

The big thing now is to ensure no further transfer to Iran nor Pakistan.

Abbasi got the message.

Rouhani didn't.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 23 Sep 2017 01:48

Even the so-called hawk Steve Bannon opined that nuke war with NoKo was not an option, and that implies rest of the pansies in the trump administration are not more hawkish than Bannon. Duplicity in DC will go for a facesaver and avoid war -- capitulation is the strategy for these guys in the US state dept. when faced with threats from the likes of China (which is what this NoKo affair is, by all appearances)

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2017 01:50

UlanBatori wrote:Guys, if the NoKo nuclear caper gets away free, next to nuclearize could be Venezuela, ending the Monroe Doctrine. At that point, the US would be seen to be as powerful as Switzerland. Swaziland.

Cannot be allowed to happen.



it wont get away free.
Only it wont be nukes.

Did FSU get away free?
Venezuela is tottering on bankruptcy and people are trying to make a living there.
Its not next to a nuke challenger state like China.

So lets not get into falling dominoes theory.
The next to think about are in Middle East.
Intention and capability.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 23 Sep 2017 02:09

I don't see what the US can do to NoKo, since China is not going to stop its support for NoKo or reduce NoKo's dependence on China in all matters. Anything done to turn the screws on NoKo will be undone by China one way or another.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Dipanker » 23 Sep 2017 02:42

ramana wrote:
If you note I did not underline South Korea and Japan. There will be no winners if that happens as it becomes a multiplayer concurrent game which has n^2 possibility.



Sorry to nitpick, but with n players each with "2" options, shouldn't the possibilities be 2^n instead of n^2?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2017 03:15

you may be right. I wrote on the phone.

Let AmberG weigh in unless you are a combinatorics person.

Point is it becomes more complex.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2017 03:17

I found the book by Wen Ho Lee on modeling shaped charges.
basically tells you how to set thing off.

Unless its some other physics book.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramdas » 23 Sep 2017 03:47

@ramana:

How can you be sure that no further proliferation to Pak will occur (i.e, ``Abbasi got the message"). Abbasi is irrelevant here. GHQ could well obtain NoKo TN design. By the time unkil admits this, it would be too late. The way I see this, the game that PRC played in the 90s (equipping Paki with proven fission nukes, while ours were unproven) is now being taken to the next level (equipping proxies with proven TN). The hope is that liberal forces in India and SoKo along with Japan's pacifism will prevent a counter to this move, freezing the edge PRC and its proxies have.

Propaganda is another dimension here: an example being the columnist N. V. Subramanian (newsinsight.net) who seemed nationalistic until last November, but appears to have turned around to recommending aman ki asha kind of stuff. The warning this worthy issues against further surgical strikes is ``what if Pak responds overwhelmingly at the tac. nuke level"? Such doubts would gain more acceptability if TSP enhances its nuke firepower by an order of magnitude. Fifth columnists within our own side that advise against ``escalation" gain more traction then. This is what the axis banks on.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Sep 2017 05:38

Latest in escalation of InterCretin Ballistics Words (ICBW)
In a statement written in the first person, published on the front pages of state newspapers and read on national television, Mr. Kim called Mr. Trump a “mentally deranged U.S. dotard” who had “denied the existence of and insulted me and my country in front of the eyes of the world.” Mr. Kim vowed to take the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history.” ...Mr. Kim’s decision to respond personally ..and pledge reprisals escalated the standoff over the North’s nuclear program in a way that neither he nor his predecessors had done before... Mr. Kim’s intervention appeared to sharply reduce the possibility that his government might retreat or compromise, even in the face of war. Mr. Kim condemned Mr. Trump’s threat to “totally destroy” North Korea if the United States is forced to defend itself, and he declared that it had “convinced me, rather than frightening or stopping me, that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last.


He's got a point there... but what is a "dotard"?


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