Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 04 Oct 2017 23:06

It is a case of glass half empty half full. All you have to do is read the achievements thread to see what is being done in terms of reforms. What is the benefit of extrapolating new GDP series to old - none. You have to travel the Gurgaon-Manesar right upto Neemrana belt and the Kundli to Chandigarh to Mohali to Ludhiana belt to see what kind of development is happening and then compare to TN. Chennai old part is congested. New part is largely unplanned. One ECR and one OMR I believe and a ring road perpetually in making. Nothing much to shout about. Countryside not much different from even AP. You have to move out of your comfort zone to explore the country.

achoudhury · Post by **achoudhury** » 04 Oct 2017 23:23

vina wrote:
During six years of the previous government, there were 8 instances when GDP was at or below 5.7 per cent
The difference between the "new" CPI numbers and the old series is 2% . So 5.7 % per the new series == 3.7% in the old series.
Please ask Mr Modi, in how many instances did the GDP dip below 3.7% in the UPA years ? It surely wont be 8 times.

Can you point me at how you arrived at new 5.7 == old 3.7.. Looks like another urban legend in making, just like "hindu rate of growth", "15 lacs in bank", etc. by fiberals..

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 04 Oct 2017 23:36

vina wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:You’re playing dirty pool. The base index is revised using an impartial analysis by the CSO. There are legitimate criticisms of the govt. but this isn’t one them. You’re doing a disservice to your arguments.
Is it ? The Govt promised that they will report the GDP based on both the new and old indices and infact said that they would recalculate the old index using the new index methodology so that a like to like comparison can be made.

It has been close to two years now, but the parallel reporting and recalculation of old index is not to be seen. Why is that ?

The CSO keeps the figures and they are an apolitical organization. If they don’t have it, then the govt. doesn’t have it. Why are you and other congis trying turn this into a political issue? It makes no sense. I’ve seen your posts about GST and demonetization and there are some good points there, but not on this.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 04 Oct 2017 23:55

What is the difference between old series and new series? Is it the change in base year or change in methodology or both?

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 05 Oct 2017 00:14

hanumadu wrote:What is the difference between old series and new series? Is it the change in base year or change in methodology or both?

http://blog.frontierstrategygroup.com/2 ... t-matters/

The revision was twofold. First, the CSO changed the base year from 2004-2005 to 2011-2012. Base year changes are commonplace, and countries frequently undergo a rebasing to reflect structural changes in the economy. India rebases its GDP about once every five years.

The second change was more interesting; the CSO revised the method of GDP calculation. Notable modifications included adopting the recommendations of the System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA 2008) to bring figures in line with international standards. New data from the population census of 2011 and the National Sample Survey (NSS) sixty-eighth round on employment, unemployment and consumer expenditure (2011-12) was also included, among other surveys.

As in the old series, due to lack of annual surveys, output in the unorganized,or informal, manufacturing and services sectors is calculated using the Labor Input (LI) method, which uses a benchmark-indicator process and then calculates output as the estimated labor input times the value added per worker. In the new series, an Effective Labor Input (ELI) method is used. This method distinguishes workers on productivity by assigning weights to different categories of workers, changing overall output contributed by these sectors.

The CSO also improved its coverage of the corporate sector, using data from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs’ new initiative, MCA21, and increased coverage of the financial sector. Another notable change includes the classification of activities according to the National Industrial Classification (NIC) 2008. Most importantly, calculation of output has shifted to Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices from GVA at factor costs in the old series, and GDP is calculated at market prices by adding product taxes and reducing subsidies from GVA at basic prices.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 05 Oct 2017 00:36

There is no 'oldseriesgdp = newseriesgdp - 2' hard and fast rule.
The above article has gdp estimates under old series and new series until 2020 and after 2018, the old series gdp is higher than the new series.

achoudhury · Post by **achoudhury** » 05 Oct 2017 00:59

vina wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:You’re playing dirty pool. The base index is revised using an impartial analysis by the CSO. There are legitimate criticisms of the govt. but this isn’t one them. You’re doing a disservice to your arguments.
Is it ? The Govt promised that they will report the GDP based on both the new and old indices and infact said that they would recalculate the old index using the new index methodology so that a like to like comparison can be made.

It has been close to two years now, but the parallel reporting and recalculation of old index is not to be seen. Why is that ?

Again, whataboutery. You claimed that N5.7 == O3.7 , so burden is on you to prove. I remember that when the new series GDP came about , GoI came under lot of pressure as suddenly the GDP was higher and so they shot from hip and said that they will re-calculate old series. But everyone should have realized that it is impossible to do. New GVA method has lot of data points which are simply not available for prior years. Essentially, the new method and old methods are as different from each other as polar bears are from Grizzlies. We can't calculate how man polar bears are equivalent to grizzlies even though they both are bears.

One more thing, The difference between old series and new series is only material for first year. For subsequent years since growth is calculated from prior year which is based on new series ,It makes no sense to say n5.7 = o3.7. Simply because there is no old series. It is gone, poof, pssst, uff!

Srutayus · Post by **Srutayus** » 05 Oct 2017 02:05

This week I wrote an article on the effect of the recent reforms on the immediate and sustained growth rates of the Indian economy that can be seen here:
https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/ ... mic-growth

Avtar Singh · Post by **Avtar Singh** » 05 Oct 2017 02:31

I have Arun Shourie book on my bookshelf, bought a long time ago on visit to India.

To hear him use the words "reichstag", "gas chambers" in that interview is disappointing.
So it is all cleverness and nothing material.
I suppose we will know in the years ahead about economic slowdon and whether he is giving advice
to a friend or doing a hatchet job.

Considering the miserableness suffered by India in the last 70 years wrt governance.. forget previous 1300 years
finally getting someone not filling his pockets from the treasury has to be a great blessing.
maybe Shourie was expecting JFK..... someone who has been to; LSE, Princeton, Harvard

for all his "habits" ......

If Namo can shutdown PDS and do direct electronic transfer to the poor that would be a great achievement, in itself
He could spend rest of his time holidaying like M Obama.. it would still be a job well done

maybe he could also do an interview reflecting on all the fellows that have gone before or that maybe coming soon;
fair and balanced

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 02:52

I think there is a window until all these reforms take effect. The spin masters of CON crooked alliance along with scum media want to set the narrative. If GDP grows, blame it on wrong methodology of Modi.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 05 Oct 2017 03:18

+1,
if economy tanks then: Bad policies of Modi
if economy picks up: Bad data, fake data, feku etc etc.

You cannot win either ways. Do your work and let the poodles bark.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 06:00

Deleted

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 05 Oct 2017 06:24

In Modi's speech today, he has referred to these people as modern-day 'Shalya'.

I think it is an apt description.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 06:36

Deleted

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 06:42

I.B.T.L‏ @IndiaBTL 5h
For 67 minutes Modi spoke non-stop presenting data, hard facts, numbers, & slide after slide.
This coupled with his epic trademark oratory.
Just listen to the first 60 seconds-
His aura, the applause, continuous cheers of Modi-Modi. Unparalleled popularity

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 06:45

NEW EVENT MANAGEMENT

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 07:02

RAILWAYS EVENT MANAGEMENT

Suresh Prabhu‏Verified account @sureshpprabhu 7h7 hours ago
More
Giving boost to #RailInfra #ModiTransformsIndia

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 07:10

I.B.T.L‏ @IndiaBTL 12h12 hours ago

Modi silences critics in one stroke. Pure numbers
Before #DeMonetisation (8 Nov 2016) cash-to-GDP ratio was 12%.
Now 9%
#ModiTransformsIndia

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 07:11

HOUSING EVENT MANAGEMENT

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 07:12

FDI EVENT MANAGEMENT

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 07:14

GROWTH EVENT MANAGEMENT

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 07:16

If someone thinks these are all fake numbers and if they offer proof, I can think this is an event management. Actually all these numbers are coming out of Indianexpress too but they declare it as economy in doldrums

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 05 Oct 2017 07:27

Supratik wrote:Chennai old part is congested. New part is largely unplanned. One ECR and one OMR I believe and a ring road perpetually in making. Nothing much to shout about. Countryside not much different from even AP. You have to move out of your comfort zone to explore the country.

Chennai has 3 ring roads (Inner Ring Road, Chennai Bypass, Outer Ring Road), and the fourth (Peripheral Ring Road) has just been cleared by Centre. Which one of these do you think is "perpetually in making"? Sometimes when not sure, it is perhaps better not to post.

All rhetoric apart, vina saar has a point about public goods. About 5 years ago, I had visited HP, Punjab (Jallandhar and Amritsar). While the roads in Punjab were excellent, and the cities looked prosperous, public transport was practically non-existent. This was more apparent in Amritsar with a population of 1+ million and its many tourist spots - people were using hired cabs (like I was), or share autos. I don't recall seeing many city buses as such. Sure, the local ISBT had buses to Delhi, Chandigarh, etc., but transport inside the city was poor. I used to wonder how people got around. I believe there is a BRTS service now, so looks like it got better now.

Contrast this to cities like Salem (pop. 0.8 million) or towns like Namakakal (pop. 55k) - both city bus stands were very busy at 2AM/3AM (I was transiting through) with a multitude of mofussil buses (Chennai, BLR, CBE, etc.) and 'town' buses to nearby towns. Same for Tiruchi at 6/7 AM - lots of intra-city buses with students going to school, office workers bound for an early shift (in BHEL, I guess), etc. And this is not a recent phenomenon - this was the case even 20 years ago when I'd travelled in these places by buses during school holidays. I particularly recall taking a 23:30 bus from a rather busy Erode (pop. 0.5 million) bus stand to Bhavani (14km away, pop. 39k), and the bus was going on to Mettur (pop. 50k) 40 km away. And there were more buses ready to leave from Erode later than that.

Public transport is an important public good, and TN is streets ahead of any other state in India, comfort zone notwithstanding. No wonder the unreserved compartments in trains here are not overcrowded - bus transport is extensive and quite comfortable for the money one pays.

One ECR and one OMR I believe

And what does this even mean? One should have multiple "east coast" roads?

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 05 Oct 2017 09:46

Upa lost the plot on 2 parameters - inflation and corruption. Corruption drives cash flow which drives inflation. So by going less cash modiji is killing 2 birds in one stone. Let the paid media bark. Have curry and just track these 2 indicators.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 05 Oct 2017 11:33

I read Yashwant Sinha's article on Indian Express. Anti Modi gang in full celebration mode. But let's do some fact check..

Yashwant Sinha says "Private investment has shrunk as never before in two decades".
Fact: 2016 PE investment at 10 year PEAK!
{Source: Business World}

Yashwant Sinha: "industrial production has all but collapsed".
Fact: IIP is healthy b/w 2014 and 2016. Picking up again this quarter.
{Source: Trading Economics}

Yashwant Sinha:: "agriculture is in distress".
Fact: Kharif and Rabi production in India is at its highest level ever!!
{Source: IBEF}

Yashwant Sinha: "construction industry, a big employer of WF, is in the doldrums".
Fact: Iron & Steel consumption at record high!
{Source: IBEF}

Yashwant Sinha: "the rest of service sector is also in the slow lane".
Fact: 39% growth in IT services over 3 years!!
{Source: TheDollarBusiness}

Yashwant Sinha: "exports have dwindled, sector after sector of the economy is in distress"
Fact: Exports growing even after demonetization!
Source: Trading Economics}

I will stop here. Yashwant Sinha missed the facts badly in an effort to target Arun Jaitley directly and Narendra Modi indirectly.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 05 Oct 2017 11:46

Best bet for an optimist: RBI will go wrong
http://m.economictimes.com/news/economy ... 940447.cms

They somehow seem to nurture the belief that low rates do not quite work in India: borrowers would walk into banks when they have to borrow irrespective of interest rates while the returns to an army of savers, still overwhelmingly dependent of interest from bank fixed deposits, need to be protected. Along with this unstated ethos, are the priorities of the newly-constituted policy committee which is keen to establish its credibility, even if means sacrificing growth for a few quarters.

In the past few years whenever RBI has cut rates, its hands were forced by circumstances – it was never out of choice but due to an absence of it. Rarely has the inherently conservative organisation indicated that it has the space to cut rates.

Chances are this space would shrink in the next few months. Unless there is a dramatic dip in sentiment, the data on inflation is likely to make it difficult for RBI to prune interest rates before January or the Union Budget.

How would the RBI stance and action play out? Many betting on rate cuts in the coming days perhaps think that the committee is preparing the grounds for a cut. In most policy statements, RBI typically argues a lack of space (for rate cut) by pointing out the rising inflation trajectory but later finds the space to accommodate a rate cut.

But such hidebound postures often dampen the efficacy of a rate cut, perhaps achieving less than what it could have if timed rightly.

Few would disagree with RBI when it says the GST mess needs to be fixed, banks have to be capitalised and loan waivers would fatten deficit. These glaring truths can only help RBI temporarily put the ball in the government’s court -- a strategy often and more effectively employed by Patel’s predecessor Rajan. But it cannot mask the role RBI should play in managing growth expectations.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Oct 2017 12:29

arshyam wrote:
Supratik wrote:Chennai old part is congested. New part is largely unplanned. One ECR and one OMR I believe and a ring road perpetually in making. Nothing much to shout about. Countryside not much different from even AP. You have to move out of your comfort zone to explore the country.
Chennai has 3 ring roads (Inner Ring Road, Chennai Bypass, Outer Ring Road), and the fourth (Peripheral Ring Road) has just been cleared by Centre. Which one of these do you think is "perpetually in making"? Sometimes when not sure, it is perhaps better not to post.

All rhetoric apart, vina saar has a point about public goods. About 5 years ago, I had visited HP, Punjab (Jallandhar and Amritsar). While the roads in Punjab were excellent, and the cities looked prosperous, public transport was practically non-existent. This was more apparent in Amritsar with a population of 1+ million and its many tourist spots - people were using hired cabs (like I was), or share autos. I don't recall seeing many city buses as such. Sure, the local ISBT had buses to Delhi, Chandigarh, etc., but transport inside the city was poor. I used to wonder how people got around. I believe there is a BRTS service now, so looks like it got better now.

Contrast this to cities like Salem (pop. 0.8 million) or towns like Namakakal (pop. 55k) - both city bus stands were very busy at 2AM/3AM (I was transiting through) with a multitude of mofussil buses (Chennai, BLR, CBE, etc.) and 'town' buses to nearby towns. Same for Tiruchi at 6/7 AM - lots of intra-city buses with students going to school, office workers bound for an early shift (in BHEL, I guess), etc. And this is not a recent phenomenon - this was the case even 20 years ago when I'd travelled in these places by buses during school holidays. I particularly recall taking a 23:30 bus from a rather busy Erode (pop. 0.5 million) bus stand to Bhavani (14km away, pop. 39k), and the bus was going on to Mettur (pop. 50k) 40 km away. And there were more buses ready to leave from Erode later than that.

Public transport is an important public good, and TN is streets ahead of any other state in India, comfort zone notwithstanding. No wonder the unreserved compartments in trains here are not overcrowded - bus transport is extensive and quite comfortable for the money one pays.

One ECR and one OMR I believe
And what does this even mean? One should have multiple "east coast" roads?

From my experience there 2 TN

1) Dirty filthy and congested -> i.e CHennai

2) Cleaner better kept cities -> rets of TN.

Vina or Arshyam will not travel to Sowcarpet, Cheptet, Vyasarpadi, Kodambakkam, West Mambalam,T Nagar, Periamet etc especially during peak hours or do their Deepavali shopping in TNagar and then comment on TN infrastructure, will Chennai residents have to deal with these shambles.

vina · Post by **vina** » 05 Oct 2017 12:35

Deleted

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Oct 2017 12:49

Worst Bad Debt In A Decade Greets New State Bank Of India Chief

https://www.ndtv.com/business/worst-bad ... eststories

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 05 Oct 2017 13:03

Mean-e-while, on top of stellar sales in the 2 wheeler, 4 wheeler segments this year compared to last, as reported by maruti, Hyundai, tata and tractor sales by Mahindra comes this -
http://wap.business-standard.com/articl ... 245_1.html
VST Tillers sales surge 31%

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Oct 2017 15:54

Austin wrote:Worst Bad Debt In A Decade Greets New State Bank Of India Chief

https://www.ndtv.com/business/worst-bad ... eststories

Actually this Bad was there for many years, they were just dressing the books. Some of these should have been NPA in 2008-09 itself.

Was the robbery at Indian Banks - please see for example the case of STCL a wholly owned subsidary of STC Limted and Asia Metals and Commodities Pte Ltd. Such cases were nothing but looting of Nationalised Bank depositors.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Oct 2017 15:56

While discussing Indian economy, Home loan interest rates today are between 8.3% to 9.5%, and auto loans in the 9-14%. I remember in 2010-14 I had paid 12.5 Interest rates.

Why this aspect is not being discussed at all?

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 05 Oct 2017 16:04

Aditya_V wrote: From my experience there 2 TN

1) Dirty filthy and congested -> i.e CHennai

2) Cleaner better kept cities -> rets of TN.

Vina or Arshyam will not travel to Sowcarpet, Cheptet, Vyasarpadi, Kodambakkam, West Mambalam,T Nagar, Periamet etc especially during peak hours or do their Deepavali shopping in TNagar and then comment on TN infrastructure, will Chennai residents have to deal with these shambles.

You don't know me, so on what basis are you making this statement? By the same token, when was the last time you took a public transport bus in TN? I did as recently as last week, in a tired looking SETC bus for over 300km. So please keep your assumptions to yourself.

Anyway, what's your point?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 Oct 2017 16:31

Arshyam,

As I said before I have traveled through TN (AP border to Chennai) and HY, PJ. Saw the developments. I would say HY, PJ is doing better than TN. If you are talking about HDI then TN is better. Took buses and autos in Chennai. Kolkata does better. I believe the ORR is still incomplete. Hyd I believe started later and finished it. Chennai is OK but the idea that nothing is happening in NI is frog in well syndrome.

Govt planning to introduce inheritance tax on HNIs in next budget.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... s?from=mdr

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Oct 2017 16:58

ANOTHER EVENT MANAGEMENT

http://www.financialexpress.com/economy ... up/880030/
September manufacturing grows for second month, hiring picks up
Manufacturing activity in India expanded in September for the second month in a row, driven up by an increase in output and new orders.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 Oct 2017 17:08

Services PMI up from 47.5 to 50.7 Sep vs Aug - expansion

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 950864.cms

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Oct 2017 17:19

Maybe vina, arshyam, aditya_v might like to contribute to this quora thread:
https://www.quora.com/What-cities-in-In ... -transport
What cities in India are the best for public transport?

The most convincing answer there seems to be Indore.

kiranA · Post by **kiranA** » 05 Oct 2017 17:33

Deleted

kiranA · Post by **kiranA** » 05 Oct 2017 17:39

arshyam wrote:
Supratik wrote:Chennai old part is congested. New part is largely unplanned. One ECR and one OMR I believe and a ring road perpetually in making. Nothing much to shout about. Countryside not much different from even AP. You have to move out of your comfort zone to explore the country.
Chennai has 3 ring roads (Inner Ring Road, Chennai Bypass, Outer Ring Road), and the fourth (Peripheral Ring Road) has just been cleared by Centre. Which one of these do you think is "perpetually in making"? Sometimes when not sure, it is perhaps better not to post.

All rhetoric apart, vina saar has a point about public goods. About 5 years ago, I had visited HP, Punjab (Jallandhar and Amritsar). While the roads in Punjab were excellent, and the cities looked prosperous, public transport was practically non-existent. This was more apparent in Amritsar with a population of 1+ million and its many tourist spots - people were using hired cabs (like I was), or share autos. I don't recall seeing many city buses as such. Sure, the local ISBT had buses to Delhi, Chandigarh, etc., but transport inside the city was poor. I used to wonder how people got around. I believe there is a BRTS service now, so looks like it got better now.

Contrast this to cities like Salem (pop. 0.8 million) or towns like Namakakal (pop. 55k) - both city bus stands were very busy at 2AM/3AM (I was transiting through) with a multitude of mofussil buses (Chennai, BLR, CBE, etc.) and 'town' buses to nearby towns. Same for Tiruchi at 6/7 AM - lots of intra-city buses with students going to school, office workers bound for an early shift (in BHEL, I guess), etc. And this is not a recent phenomenon - this was the case even 20 years ago when I'd travelled in these places by buses during school holidays. I particularly recall taking a 23:30 bus from a rather busy Erode (pop. 0.5 million) bus stand to Bhavani (14km away, pop. 39k), and the bus was going on to Mettur (pop. 50k) 40 km away. And there were more buses ready to leave from Erode later than that.

Public transport is an important public good, and TN is streets ahead of any other state in India, comfort zone notwithstanding. No wonder the unreserved compartments in trains here are not overcrowded - bus transport is extensive and quite comfortable for the money one pays.

One ECR and one OMR I believe
And what does this even mean? One should have multiple "east coast" roads?

I think AP is even better than TN is providing better built buses and generaly cleaner environments. But it doesnt matter. Road transport is managed by state governments. And is generally excellent in southern states. There is another darker reason for this. Rail transport which is managed by central is shambles and completely biased towards nothern india starting from punjab ...then across the gangetic plain and ending in bengal. This forced peninsular india to invest in road transport and all the southers state bleed in revenues due to this as every road transport corporation is in losses. So not only do they dont get rail investments they undergo further losses to subsidize road transport . All this in addition to higher taxes these regions pay per capita to delhi's kitty. The theft of the south to benefit north.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Oct 2017 18:36

Kiran A please provide a source which links to Goverment records. Just stating "event management" will not do.