Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

Every one won't clean up their act overnight. It is a constant fight. Slowly and slowly close each loop hole
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 141781.cms
Volume growth improved in India after the Goods and Services Tax implementation: Unilever
Consumer goods giant UnileverBSE -0.38 % said it is seeing signs of improvement in India with higher demand-led growth helped by price cuts due to new tax regime.

"While conditions in our developed markets remain challenging, we are starting to see signs of improvement in some of our biggest emerging markets including India and China," said Unilever CEO Paul Polman in a statement after posting a 2.6% underlying sales growth during third quarter.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Supratik »

Chetak,

What you are saying is not a failure of GST. It just means crooks have other ways of being crooks. So it cannot be a critique of GST. Between crooks and the system it is a constant battle like encryption and hacking. There is no single silver bullet to kill corruption.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chetak »

Supratik wrote:Chetak,

What you are saying is not a failure of GST. It just means crooks have other ways of being crooks. So it cannot be a critique of GST. Between crooks and the system it is a constant battle like encryption and hacking. There is no single silver bullet to kill corruption.
I never said that GST was bad or not needed. I am a fan but all must be aware that the old ways still continue. Deep seated corruption cannot be eliminated so easily.

Even the restaurant industry is openly cheating customers and most of them are using GST to do it and in spite of GST, the jewellery industry is running a parallel economy as they were doing in the past.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

We need a separate thread for discussions of corruption etc. The current posts are progressively taking focus off the topic of this thread. Anyone can come and post anything they thing is happening on a large scale.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Atish »

My point is the system is such that it will collapse with zero black money. In fact if every bureaucrat started implementing all laws properly the economy will collapse.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/armch ... 55633.html
Armchair GST, demonetisation criticism isn't the worry, Narendra Modi needs holding strategy till 2019
Delhi's media eco-system is notoriously contagious. Though winter is still some way off, ever since a senior journalist smelled "something in the air", other members of the capital's elite press-corps have started talking of "hawa-badal".

Predictably, op-eds started appearing and social media chatter became louder about how the prime minister and BJP chief Amit Shah have been put on the back-foot by a resurgent Congress under Rahul Gandhi 2.0. Critics of the government, who had all but given up hope for an opposition comeback in 2019, are excited at spotting rays of a new dawn on the horizon.
By general consensus, the government was widely seen to have faltered on four major counts. It is accused of failing to tackle the over-hang of demonetisation, poor implementation of GST, containing prices and inability to create new jobs. Positive endorsements from the IMF, World Bank, investment bankers and a few contrarian economists were contemptuously dismissed.
The government's response may have sounded a tad defensive but it was heartening to find that neither the prime minister nor the finance minister were in denial. This was evident from Modi's speeches on a couple of occasions, like at The Institute of Company Secretaries and when the prime minister was addressing karyakartas in Gujarat's Gandhinagar the other day.

Even more reassuring to note their resolve to stay the course on economic strategy and not resort to any knee-jerk reactions like fiscal stimulus though it might be politically expedient in view of the forthcoming state elections.
One sector that is highly dependent on cash is transportation. Truck drivers have to pay for fuel, toll tax, their own food and lodging on the way all in cash. But, they receive their payments from big consignors always by cheque or bank transfer. Can anyone cite examples of logistics fleet grounded because truck owner did not have money to pay drivers or buy diesel?

The sector that has been worst affected, as per popular perception and perhaps even otherwise, is real estate. But, how much of it is really because of cash? Those familiar with the industry say - the slump is largely because "speculative" investment has gone down and builders are still trying to artificially prop up prices in the hope of a recovery. At the same time, real buyers are staying away expecting a natural market correction and lowering of mortgage rates.
But, a bigger issue that has not received adequate attention is the acute shortage of building materials, sand and gravel, across the country.

This is partly on account of bans imposed by the NGT and new state governments coming down heavily on illegal sand and aggregates mining. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have been reeling under sand crisis for months now. That is not only affecting residential construction but also infrastructure projects. The bureaucracy remains embroiled in other existential issues of governance to look at such nuts and bolts problems of the economy.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by achoudhury »

Suraj wrote: India's perpetual job crisis might find its fix in labour reforms
Labour reforms are, therefore, the antidote to India's perpetual job crisis -- but this is a politically sensitive topic.
Really banal article. By now, even a 5th grader knows the labor laws are one of the inhibitors of Industrilization in India. But why has no government been able to tackle that. I mean every govt will love to have more industry , more manufacturing. So why it is difficult politically? Answer lies in the social security or the lack of it. Once a labor force is in Industry, it will have to survive on jobs irrevocably and a flexible labor laws will have inevitable pain when the industry dies down. This pain can not be borne politically unless we have some semblance of social security. This Govt has tried a honest beginning in that area with different insurance scheme for poor but it has miles to go. But much more then Labor laws, India's industrialization is held back due to poor taxation laws, even poorer infrastructure and politically directed allocation of capital. I see major push to correct the taxation laws as well as vigor in removing Infrastructure bottlenecks. A rational, enforceable tax law is in sight and basic infra like Roads, Railways, Electricity, Water, Digitization, etc. are improving rapidly. Access to capital remains a major obstacle as yet there is no push yet to create credit worthiness of general populace. May be Aadhar can be leveraged in that direction now.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ yes, a fiscally viable safety net for workers depends on a better tax-base.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Gus »

Credit is a serious problem. Businessmen in rural areas are still getting informal financing at 18% normal and 24% as well. Then they all rely on chit funds to rotate cash. This is again growing the unaccounted cash quantum.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ShauryaT »

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ yes, a fiscally viable safety net for workers depends on a better tax-base.
Let us not put the cart before the horse. Industries and jobs first. Security and protections later.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Philip »

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Last edited by Suraj on 20 Oct 2017 20:13, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Political content removed
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

ShauryaT wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:^^^ yes, a fiscally viable safety net for workers depends on a better tax-base.
Let us not put the cart before the horse. Industries and jobs first. Security and protections later.
Industry and jobs need labor reforms need safety net for workers need better tax-base.

FYI, GOI's credit-rating is not upgraded by Moody's, etc., because of the inadequate tax-base - far too few people pay taxes. If India's credit rating went up a notch, and the debt was refinanced at the new, lower interest rate, India would save some USD 6 billion per year in interest, if I remember correctly. That along with the necessary tax-base would help with the safety net.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by JayS »

At the time when Indian economy is at its nadir due to Demonetization and GST, Hero Sold 3 lakh units in single dayon Diwali. Highest ever, A record. LOL..
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Uttam »

JayS wrote:At the time when Indian economy is at its nadir due to Demonetization and GST, Hero Sold 3 lakh units in single dayon Diwali. Highest ever, A record. LOL..
Add to that the Fuel consumption in India grew by 10% in September, an all time record!!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

wish they were all electric
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Aditya_V »

Sir what about the other Lawyer who caused 9 Lakh crore NPA, ran 6% deficits continuously and broke the back of the economy under the guidance of an economist. That will take atleast 5 years to correct, and removing Gutka Pan and removing cost based GDP calculation( Which was counting Government susidies) to market based valuation is not creative accounting. I is more realistic and will not Change GDP growth by 2.2% every year. Some of these articles above are just Horse manure.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Gus »

Need the small electric bikes. Saw them plenty in China. They use for short distances scooting around and to go to access points for mass transport.

Would help with both pollution and crude import bill.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been aggressively intervening in the currency markets in the recent past to arrest a steep appreciation of the rupee against the dollar. Currently, as of October 6, India’s foreign exchange reserves were at $398 billion after having crossed $400 billion mid-September. But if one factors in the RBI’s forward market purchases, India’s reserves could be well over $420 billion, estimate economists.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Kakkaji »

So much for the slowdown:

Durables shrug off slow start to log dhamaka sales in festive season
KOLKATA: Despite a slow start, sales of television, refrigerator and washing machines grew 8-10 per cent in volume terms this festive season, dispelling industry's fears that the impact of the Goods and Services Tax would deter buyers from opening up their wallets. GST was implemented across the country on July 1.

Top companies such as Sony, LG and Panasonic said sales rose during Dussehra at the end of September and then again on the weekend before Dhanteras and through to Diwali (October 14-20). Even online-focussed brands reported a spike through the sales run by Flipkart and Amazon during the period, leading to buoyant growth in both online and offline sales.

In large cities, the demand for high-value products such as TVs with screen sizes above 40 inches, frost-free refrigerators, frontloading washing machines and convection microwave ovens overtook entry-level products thanks to consumer loans.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

Conflicting stories about retail:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/diwal ... 55305.html

Diwali shopping: Has festival of lights boosted sales? Yes, say modern retailers; dampener, say small traders
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by disha »

As somebody said ‘there is lies, damned lies & statustics’., the above report is filed based on ine comment:
Praveen Khandelwal, secretary general, Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) pooh-poohs the ‘growth’ in modern retail stating that modern retail comprises of only 5 percent of retail in the country.
The above is not a data point but a opinion & statistically you can draw infinite lines through a single point!!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Philip »

Elec bikes were tried a decade + ago but failed for dev. reasons.Better tech today may revive the industry who are still watching many nations worldwide leaping forward with E-cars for the future.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Dipanker »

Some rejig in GST rate structure required: Adhia
NEW DELHI: Some rejig in GST rate structure is required to reduce the burden on small and medium businesses, revenue secretary Hasmukh Adhia has said.
The Goods and Services Tax (GST), which amalgamates more than a dozen central and state levies like excise duty, service tax and VAT, will take about a year to stabilise, he told PTI.
"There is need for some rejig in rates... it is possible that some items in the same chapter are divided. There is a need for harmonisation of items chapter wise and wherever we find there is a big burden on small and medium businesses and on common man, if we bring them down, there will be a better compliance," Adhia said.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by JayS »

x-posting from Achievement thread:
uddu wrote:India has seen assembly of mobile phones grow to 90% from zero: Qualcomm
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busine ... 17293.html

Through the ‘Make in India’ initiative, you have seen the assembly in our business of mobile phones grow dramatically almost from a zero to 85-90 percent, he said.

Note: After achieving 90 percent assembly of Mobile phones in India, govt proceeding to the next step of manufacturing circuit boards in India.
This is one of the biggest achievements of NDA-2. Along with this I can see assembly of other electronic items like TV has also significantly increased. There was an IPO of one of the electronics manufacturing company which does this assembly work for OEMs. It was a block-bluster and these companies have very exciting future.

As I said earlier, its possible to completely cut off China on electronics manufacturing by importing only component level stuff from Taiwan and other SE-Asian countries, if GOI plays the cards right. Would reduce trade deficit with China by huge extent.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ssundar »

JayS wrote: This is one of the biggest achievements of NDA-2. Along with this I can see assembly of other electronic items like TV has also significantly increased. There was an IPO of one of the electronics manufacturing company which does this assembly work for OEMs. It was a block-bluster and these companies have very exciting future.

As I said earlier, its possible to completely cut off China on electronics manufacturing by importing only component level stuff from Taiwan and other SE-Asian countries, if GOI plays the cards right. Would reduce trade deficit with China by huge extent.
This is no mean achievement. However, much of this is manufacturing blueprints already prepared by MediaTek, Qualcomm. The next step up the ladder is the indigenous design and development of truly Indian mobile devices. It requires a focused effort by entrepreneurs and sustained support by the government. Hopefully, this is on the cards as well.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Yes it’s called moving up the value chain. There’s really no need to prephase it with ‘however’. It may be ‘grunt work’, but if you read the article I previously posted a page ago, we arguably need this so called grunt work more than we need high end value added job creation . India should be a one stop shop to build anything someone wants to produce en masse.

Focusing solely upon moving quickly up the value chain results in very low job intensity of growth . That does not serve us well. In fact I argue that it’s more important to focus on low end job creation because the value add higher end will take care of itself give skills and entrepreneurial base we have .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by SBajwa »

I think little bribes.. like policeman catching you for traffic office will never go away easily. But the big ticket items, it will be difficult to hide.
It will when everything is automatic., i.e. camera catches you crossing red light or speeding and you get a fine letter at your house which you can pay online. Concept of traffic police needs to be upgraded!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Bart S »

SBajwa wrote:
I think little bribes.. like policeman catching you for traffic office will never go away easily. But the big ticket items, it will be difficult to hide.
It will when everything is automatic., i.e. camera catches you crossing red light or speeding and you get a fine letter at your house which you can pay online. Concept of traffic police needs to be upgraded!
That will be great but most licenses themselves are fake or don't have up to date addresses (most vehicle registrations have out of date addresses as well). So a lot of work needs to be done, basically everything has to be digitized and linking with Aadhar (which some people are opposing tooth and nail) are steps towards that. The whole RTO system is a mess as well, one of the most corrupt sections of government anywhere and each state is its own separate silo.

Basically digitization will have a revolutionary effect on both our economic aspects and civic sense in general.

/Apologies for the OT.
ssundar wrote:
JayS wrote: This is one of the biggest achievements of NDA-2. Along with this I can see assembly of other electronic items like TV has also significantly increased. There was an IPO of one of the electronics manufacturing company which does this assembly work for OEMs. It was a block-bluster and these companies have very exciting future.

As I said earlier, its possible to completely cut off China on electronics manufacturing by importing only component level stuff from Taiwan and other SE-Asian countries, if GOI plays the cards right. Would reduce trade deficit with China by huge extent.
This is no mean achievement. However, much of this is manufacturing blueprints already prepared by MediaTek, Qualcomm. The next step up the ladder is the indigenous design and development of truly Indian mobile devices. It requires a focused effort by entrepreneurs and sustained support by the government. Hopefully, this is on the cards as well.
If you are referring to doing the same level of IP generation as Qualcomm etc, that is doable (after all both Qualcomm and Intel have design centers in India where much of this work is done) but will require a different level of startup ecosystem and availability of capital along with local industrial base for Indian companies to become established players in that space. Very few companies worldwide can compete with the likes of Qualcomm anyway, perhaps a local Mediatek can be a goal.

However in the ODM space, i.e designing a phone based on Qualcomm components for someone else to manufacture, that is one of the easier nuts to crack and there are a lot of Indian companies and Indian design centers of MNCs doing exactly that already. Its the hardware manufacturing and the component manufacturing that was lagging China. Of course there are also the useless so-called Indian brands/trading enterprises that just buy junk from China and stick their label on it, something that must be penalized.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vina »

Its the hardware manufacturing and the component manufacturing that was lagging China
Anything that is IP based wont fly in India , as far as manufacturing goes. We are simply not competitive from a) Infrastructure b) Labour c) Capital d) Govt Support and e) Scale and finally f) Taxes .

We are wasting our time here. The basic factor markets have to be fixed, the industry needs huge tax holidays and import protection to give it scale (think of the way chinese would do it. impose a common standard in terms of product , create scale locally, support industry to the hint, export like it is the end of the world literally , and win market share). Semi conductor and the electronics manufacturing is all about abilty to invest through the downturn over a long term and winning market share game.

The Japanese did that to the Americans and Europeans, the Koreans then did it to the Japanese, the Chinese are now doing it to the Koreans. Our society and sytems and setup is simply not set up to do this. Cost of capital in India is high, we dont have govt support, we tax our inputs to hell, and least of all, our tax structure historically was inverted with finished products being taxed LESS than inputs. Nothing that Modi has done has change the fundamental fact.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ssundar »

I am referring to the basic ability to create an Indian branded mobile phone, tablet or smart watch with Indianized content with language localization capabilities and mass manufacturing it. Couldn't a Tata or Reliance create an Indian rival to the Galaxy series? China has already built many such brands whose launch dates are as anticipated globally as those of Samsung or Apple.

It does take concerted support from the government. But the Indian conglomerates are flush with enough money to do something like this.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by jpremnath »

ssundar wrote:I am referring to the basic ability to create an Indian branded mobile phone, tablet or smart watch with Indianized content with language localization capabilities and mass manufacturing it. Couldn't a Tata or Reliance create an Indian rival to the Galaxy series? China has already built many such brands whose launch dates are as anticipated globally as those of Samsung or Apple.

It does take concerted support from the government. But the Indian conglomerates are flush with enough money to do something like this.
Companies like Tatas, birlas, Reliance are all traders not Engineering companies. Expecting the lot to come with innovative products or tech intensive products will be pointless. We might end up with something like cars made by tata motors which might sell a few but can hardly match the quality and design of the established foreign manufacturers.Plus we are talking about products which are getting commodotised rapidly, as in low visibility far eastern manufacturers can now come up phones and tablets which matches even the best of Apple and samsung but at half their price.They are going the way of TV industry where the big names will be struggling to stay over the competition as there will be little features or tech their products can offer above the cheaper chinese alternatives.

Plus, we have already missed the bus on mobile tech manufacturing. The ecosystem for them have stabilised on the Guangzhou, Taiwan , Korea triangle. Yes, we might be able to assemble a large portion on the mobiles here, but pretty sure the components is going to come still from China. The innovations happening in this industry is so fast that by the time we make some local manufacturing of components, the next version of that chip/board would have been developed in that 'triangle'. This will be like how we had a leg up in IT consulting industry and an ecosystem of large pool of english speaking cheap tech labor and industry experience spawned new IT firms in practically one per week at the peak. We were always ahead of competitors and no matter how they tried no country could match or compete with us. The next phase of the IT boom, the ODCs and research centers which are high value compared to the infy,wipro works will thrive on the already laid out ecosystem and make sure we are ahead.

So our focus should be to identify the next phase of tech wave and make sure we dont miss it...maybe it is robotics, AI, space, Data analytics..the experts could list it out here..
Last edited by jpremnath on 24 Oct 2017 16:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Atish »

Tata and AVB group have major manufacturing and engineering history. WTH are you talking about??
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Atish »

Industrial policy is a complex topic. As is agriculture. Indians are not inherently inferior in anyway not to have serious engineering/research prowess in the private sector. Look at the history of the Deming Prize. Its a bureaucratic nightmare to have an engineering firm in India. As of today the factor market situation is so bad that other analysis is superfluous. Most of the "serious" discussion on policy in India is actually racist casteist BS masquerading as analysis. I was shocked to see the newer writings of Saswati Sarkar, a first class engineering and research mind spewing off caste/ethnic nonsense. The rot is very deep within the intelligentsia.
But the Indian mind is a colonized mind. The Indian leftist mind is dbl colonized. The Indian Islamist + Leftist mind is triple colonized and probably beyond all hope.

The people like NaMo who come from solid vernacular backgrounds yet have enough education to compete with the best, are the antidote who are slowly emerging to stem the rot.

The good times have just begun.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by jpremnath »

Atish wrote:Tata and AVB group have major manufacturing and engineering history. WTH are you talking about??
They have manufacturing, yes i am aware of that. But there is very less innovation in their activities be it steel, auto (cv and passenger) or chemicals. Where does Tata steel rank in tech among global majors? Remember they began operations in the 1907 before any of today's steel majors. A century of steel operations where they made their money in a closed economy and nothing to show in tech development and way below POSCO, Kobe, or even europeans. Tatas have been making CVs since ages, only when competition started kicking their ass they started giving more options in their trucks. Even then their engines and overall quality are nothing worth talking about.

With pockets the size of Tatas, why didnt they starttheir own solar company without joining with BP?..why didnt they invest and develop their own DTH service without joining with Sky? They have huge coffee and tea plantation assets, but went running to Starbucks. You can see them frequently running to partners to (in their own language) "leverage the global expertise" which is practically saying we dont want to spend money and work hard to come up with something on our own.

The problem is the indian companies' deep rooted trading mentality, you can always read them in their CEO talks. They will almost always talk about how they are planning to improve sales through "deeper marketing", "reduced inventory turnover", "reducing raw material cost" wagera wagera...You wont find them talking about how they are going to improve their products or how they are going to increase their R&D to come up with a world beating product.

Tatas keep making products which are 'just enough' for the market and keep pushing it until people move towards something else. Look at Tata Indica, which was similar to the Hyundai santro when both of them hit the market. Look at the quality of the cars Hyundai makes now. Hyundai matches the japanese in terms of quality and models worldover now while Tatas are still stuck in Indica mode with minor facelifts here and there and an engine/platform change once in a decade. They are an 'also ran' in every field they have entered, be it Motors, Croma, Trent, Telecom, Chemicals, Steel and the list is endless...

To be a global engineering major you need to be nimble on your feet. constantly out innovating others and not waiting for competitors to match your product. They dont make 'for the market' but create their own market. The koreans learned it from the Japanese, and now the Chinese from the Koreans. And our companies havent learned anything when it comes to engineering or manufacturing.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Thakur_B »

JayS wrote:
Rahul M wrote:I have been pretty disappointed about accessibility of Rupay et al in the past. Happy to say many sites now have the upi option alongwith netbanking, CC etc.
I feel if they can fuse UPI work with wireless mobile pay technology (no need to have card, but transaction would be through UPI, instead of entering details manually, pay wirelessly using mobile) they can cut off card companies completely and people will still have same convenience of card pay. I feel I might increase the use big time.
NPCI is working on it. Last week only I had a conversation with my uber pool co passenger from a major Indian it-vity company are in talks with NPCI to launch pilot projects on it soon. Of course "soon" in Indian contexts can be very vague.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 183183.cms
India's pension system showing steady improvement: Report
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

Govt takes big step to make public sector banks healthier

The government in an "unprecedented" cabinet nod has allowed Rs 2,11,000 crore to be used for PSB capitalisation. Of this, Rs 1.35 lakh crore will come from recap bonds, while the rest will come from the market and budgetary support.
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