Terroristan - 29 September 2017

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 27 Oct 2017 15:14

Couple more pivots (on the data in the post of the Drone Strikes, shared by poster Gunnvant)

I just wanted to see if the birds had any preferred hunting time

Pivot of Drone strike with hourly time-slots

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 27 Oct 2017 15:22

Immy Cautioned To Be Careful About Inviting "Mouth For Hire" Anchorman "Doctor" Aamir Liaquat Husain In PTI Fold

Why Imran Khan is afraid [*] of Aamir Liaquat Husain? Private channel reveals mysterious story[/b]

[*] What ! Immy "afraid" ? Never !!!![/color]

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Oct 2017 16:00

Manish_P, thanks.

The strikes in North Waziristan are almost 75% of the entire drone strikes in the period between 2004 & 2016. Astonishing. Now, do we have the yearwise strikes in NWA?

Now, we know that Pakistan resisted any operation in NWA until mid-2014 when it launched Zerb-e-Azb or whatever. The US was frustrated for a long time as NWA was the base from where the Haqqanis mounted operations against the Americans and Afghans across the border. Hence the question.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Oct 2017 16:20

'If Pak fails to act against terrorists, US will get it done in a different way' - PTI

Is that a second Armitage moment?

The question is whether the US can sustain that.

"We have communicated our expectations to Pakistan numerous times that they must take decisive action against terrorist groups based within their own borders," Nauert said.

At a news conference in Geneva, his last stop on the current foreign travel, Tillerson said the US had "a very healthy exchange of information on terrorists, which is what we really hope to achieve with Pakistan."

Tillerson said the message to Pakistan was: "Here's what we need for Pakistan to do. We're asking you to do this; we're not demanding anything. You're a sovereign country. You'll decide what you want to do, but understand this is what we think is necessary. And if you don't want to do that, don't feel you can do it, we'll adjust our tactics and our strategies to achieve the same objective a different way." {Wow}

Tillerson said that he would not characterise his direct discussions with the Pakistani leadership as lecturing at all.

"It was a very good and open exchange. In fact, we probably listened 80 per cent of the time and we talked 20 per cent. And it was important to me, because I have not engaged with Pakistani leadership previously. And, so my objective was to listen a lot, to hear their perspective," he said.

"We put our points forward. We put our expectations forward in no uncertain terms. There has been significant engagement prior to my visit, and there will be further engagement in the future, as we work through how we want to exchange information and achieve the objective of eliminating these terrorist organisations, wherever they may be located," Tillerson said.

Tillerson described his communication with the Pakistani leadership as very frank and very candid.

"We had the joint meeting with Prime Minister Abbasi and the full leadership team. And then I had a second meeting with Army General Bajwa and a couple of his close advisers, so we could have a more thorough discussion about some of the specifics," he said, adding that he thinks that it was a very open, candid and frank exchange.

"There's nothing to be achieved by lecturing, but we should be very clear about expectations and what we're asking. And either people will step up and meet those expectations or they won't. We are going to chart our course consistent with what Pakistan not just says they do but what they actually do," Tillerson said.

Noting that the future course of action would be based on conditions on the ground, he said the entire South Asia strategy is a conditions-based strategy.

Pakistan Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif in a meeting yesterday with National Assembly Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs said that Pakistan will neither surrender to the US nor compromise on its sovereignty.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 27 Oct 2017 17:05

Apologies if this has been posted earlier.

Pakistan says US should accept defeat in Afghanistan, agrees to assistance on equal terms

Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif, while briefing the Senate on Wednesday regarding the talks held between Pakistani and American delegations a day earlier, asserted that Islamabad will co-operate with Washington in the 'war on terror' but without compromising its own sovereignty.

On Tuesday, a six-member delegation comprising Pakistan's top civil and military leadership hosted US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson for a brief visit to Islamabad.

Asif briefed that the Pakistani leadership told the American delegation that they should allow their policymakers, and not their military leaders, to devise a policy for Afghanistan as the military solution has failed and a political solution is needed.

"Their failures over the past 16 years [since the war in Afghanistan started] is before them," Asif added.

"There will only be room for improvement if Washington accepts their defeat, their failures in Afghanistan," Asif said on Wednesday. "They are not ready to accept this."

During the talks, Asif told the Senate, Pakistani officials informed the American delegation that Pakistan does not want any military hardware, economic resources or material gain from Washington. Rather, Pakistan wants a relationship based on equality with the US. Just as they consider being EQUAL OF INDIA!

Asif further informed the Senate that the Pakistani side has told the American delegation that if the latter provides actionable intelligence, Pakistan will act on it. He gave the example of the recent rescue of an American-Canadian couple and their three children from terrorists’ captivity in Kohat.

"However, if they want that we act as their proxies to fight their war... this is unacceptable."

"We will not compromise on our sovereignty, our dignity," Asif added. "Our relations [with America] should be based on self-respect and dignity."

He said, in contrast, Pakistan, which is not a superpower, has gained successes in the war against terror.

"Our country, our military and our police have made sacrifices in the war and in return, we have gained unmatched success."

He said Pakistan would see further success if the Parliament, the National Security Committee and the people of the country send a united message as they had after August 21 when US President Donald Trump announced his South Asia policy and lambasted Pakistan for offering safe havens to "agents of chaos".

At no stage since the policy announcement, have we succumbed to pressure and on Tuesday, for the first time, the civilian and military leadership of Pakistan sat down with the delegation and presented their input, Asif said.

"At no point during the talks did we adopt an accusatory tone, nor were we apologetic," the minister told the Senate.

"The institutions of Pakistan will protect the country's interest," Asif said.

Diminishing influence over Taliban

Asif further told the Senate that the Pakistani side had told the visiting delegation that the influence Pakistan once had over the Taliban has now diminished and there are others who are sponsoring the militant network.

He said that Washington had been tracing Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour for some time but only when he travelled to Pakistani soil he was killed.

"How do you expect that after these incidents Pakistan will have any influence over the Taliban?" Asif said, adding that these points had been raised in Tuesday's meeting in a "frank" manner.

"We have told them that there are a number of influential players in the region ─ including China, Turkey and Russia ─ who might not have good relations with America but hold a stake in the Afghan dispute."

"The role of these countries in solving the dispute is indispensable," Asif added.

Referring to a recent statement by US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley where she said that India can help the United States in keeping an eye on Pakistan, Asif said that Pakistan "also has a mouth to speak" but will proceed with caution so that relations with America can improve.

Pakistan is not a safe haven for terrorists, US told

Following the meeting between Pakistani officials and Rex Tillerson in Islamabad, Asif ─ who was a member of the Pakistani delegation ─ said that the American delegation was informed that Washington's allegations against Pakistan of offering safe havens to terrorists and protecting the Haqqani network are incorrect.

Speaking on Geo News' late night show Aaj Shahzaib Khanzada Key Saath, Asif said that Islamabad wanted to show that all institutions in the country have the same message.

When asked whether the joint talks were held with the visiting secretary due to a time crunch or, rather, in order to send out a united message to Washington, he said, "This was our deliberate decision ─ to hold talks on a single platform ─ so that Washington knows the leadership is united in the message it is sending across," Asif said.

Cheers

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 27 Oct 2017 17:06

SSridhar wrote:Manish_P, thanks.

The strikes in North Waziristan are almost 75% of the entire drone strikes in the period between 2004 & 2016. Astonishing. Now, do we have the yearwise strikes in NWA?

Now, we know that Pakistan resisted any operation in NWA until mid-2014 when it launched Zerb-e-Azb or whatever. The US was frustrated for a long time as NWA was the base from where the Haqqanis mounted operations against the Americans and Afghans across the border. Hence the question.

Here you go Sir

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Oct 2017 17:19

Oh, great, Manish_P. So, almost 80% of the strikes in NWA did take place before Zerb-e-Azb, then.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Oct 2017 17:22

Is Rex Tillerson looking for mediating role between India, Pakistan? - Economic Times

In an effort that India is likely to snub once again, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has hinted that he is looking for a mediating role between India and Pakistan.

This would be the third foray by President Donald Trump and his administration into a touchy terrain from where three of his four immediate predecessors have beaten a retreat, and one, George W. Bush pragmatically stayed away from.

With Washington now promoting a larger global role for India as an anchor of stability in the Indo-Pacific region and as an emerging counterweight to China, the Trump administration could be looking for a way to lighten the drag of Pakistani problems on India.

Speaking to reporters in Geneva on Thursday, Tillerson said that during his meeting with Pakistani leaders in Islamabad this week, "I made the observation to them, 'You have two very troubled borders. You have one in Afghanistan, you have one with India', and that we're willing to help on both of those borders, and we're not just here to talk about the situation on the Afghan border. We're also here to talk about how can we lower the tensions on the border with India."

He was not asked - and he did not say -- if he had made a similar offer to Indian leaders.

His statement came despite a long history of New Delhi firmly rebuffing involvement by anyone in what it holds is a matter solely between the two neighbours.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 27 Oct 2017 17:34

Paki "Bhooki Awaam" Not Allowed To Consume Indian Onions And Indian Tomatoes

How the India-centric anti-trade hysteria is hurting ordinary Pakistanis
Anjum Altaf, The writer was the dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at Lums

Rotten tomatoes

Rather than asserting that the military and the judiciary could be criticised if criticism was merited, a distinguished minister has taken the position that parliament is just as sacrosanct and hence above being challenged.

In anticipation of what is likely to follow, this being Pakistan, one cannot afford to lose any time taking to task another minister who has asked for the treatment. I am referring to a news item in which the minister for industries, commerce and investment has informed the Punjab Assembly that there would be “no tomato import despite mafia’s manoeuvring”. Like the French Queen of a few centuries ago , he could also have added "let the awaam gorge on the Islami Atomi Bomb "

The minister is said to have elaborated that “now tomatoes from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were being sold at Rs70 per kilo in the city and would continue to be sold till prices get further stabilised with supplies from Sindh arriving in the local market”. The justification for the policy is contained in a direct quote from the minister: “Why pass the advantage on to foreign farmers instead of our own?” According to the minister, “an influential mafia” was trying hard for resumption of import from India which would not be allowed to happen. How can "anything" be allowed to be imported from "enemy India" ( Trade through Dubai, it seems is OK !)

This minister needs to have a whole load of rotten tomatoes thrown at his head and the party chief responsible for his appointment to the ministry needs to explain the poor selection. Imagine a modern minister for commerce who can publicly state “Why pass on the advantage to foreign [producers] instead of our own?” Just follow through with the implications of the logic — it would put an end to all international trade because the only things traded are those that are made better or at lower cost by foreign producers. Pakistan should "hang on to its so -called competitive advantage" in exporting towels, and sports goods, if bigli supply- and quality control - will not be a problem

There are a whole host of other problems with the argument. First, note the irony that the statement is coming from a minister in a country where even common pins are being imported from China and garbage collection is being contracted out to the Turks. There has not been a peep about the advantage being passed on to foreigners in these and a slew of other sectors. kudos to the Pakjabi professor for calling a spade a spade !

Second, this newfound love of ‘our own’ is confined to producers, setting aside entirely the welfare of consumers who vastly outnumber the former. Why? Are consumers not equally our own? And is the government not elected to enhance the welfare of the majority? The Echendee factor is "very important" . No problem in burying your head into the sand ! Was not this amply "demonstrated" during and after T- Rex's " joint lecture" to the top brass . And the statements made by the Paki PM and the Paki FM

Third, what if someone extends the minister’s argument to the provincial level? Why pass on the advantage to producers in KP and Sindh instead of our own farmers in Punjab? Such a person would immediately be labelled an anti-national element even though the logic of the argument remains unchanged.

Fourth, who is this ‘influential mafia’ trying hard for resumption of import from India? What does it have to gain from the import? And, if this is actually a resumption of something that was taking place earlier, why wasn’t this mafia hauled in for anti-state activities at that time? Could it not be a producer mafia trying to block imports? Would a producer mafia not be infinitely more influential than one of consumers? Underlying all this back and forth, is the "unproven given" that Indian Government will "authorize" the supply of the needed tomatoes and onions to the "bhooki Awaam". This cannot be "assumed" under the Modi Regime

The fact of the matter is that a blind nationalism is at the bottom of this ridiculous anti-trade stance that is hurting the budget of the vast majority of citizens who have to purchase essential commodities in the market. Let them "eat" the nuclear bum

At the time when tomatoes were selling for Rs300 a kilo in Lahore they were available at Indian Rs40 a kilo in Amritsar a mere 30 miles away. But a visceral Indo-phobia, shared by many of our influentials, stood in the way of consumers benefiting from the lower priced supply. It was then that another distinguished minister, the federal minister for national food security and research said that “the government will never allow import of any vegetables, including tomato and onion, from India despite record high prices of these kitchen items in local markets due to limited local supply”. He elaborated that “this step has been taken to encourage the local farmers to grow more besides saving huge foreign exchange”. Smugglers' mafia- on both sides - should take "due note" of the price arbitrage and do the needful

Our ministers are not alone in articulating such puerile logic emanating from their Indo-phobia. I recall a meeting in which an ex-chief of the ISI similarly railed against trade with India because it would destroy “our own” industry. The specific example he gave was of footwear that was being produced at lower cost across the border and whose import would put Pakistani producers “out of business”. During a break, a participant jokingly inquired about the make of the shoes the chief was wearing — it turned out they were Italian. Cutting your nose to spite your face ?

The point to note is that this India-centric anti-trade hysteria is shared by many who have no compunctions consuming products imported from all other countries and whose income brackets are such that commodities like tomatoes and onions are a minuscule proportion of their budgets. These are people who tell their car drivers to fill up the tank without ever asking the going price of petrol. They are indulging in the psychic pleasure of ‘hurting’ India at no cost to themselves while pushing millions of people who can afford to buy only a litre of gas at a time below the poverty line. Writer should be "careful" lest he be labelled as an "Indian Agent" !

The ultimate irony is that such callous and shallow prejudice does virtually nothing to hurt India. On the contrary, the gap between the two countries continues to widen while our leaders make fools of themselves trying to prove to a wide-eyed world that India is the ‘mother of all terrorisms’. It is a sad commentary on the state of affairs and a sign of the extent to which people have given up that nobody even bothers to point out these follies before the narrow window for questioning inevitably draws tightly shut.

The writer was ( was he "removed" because of his "Pro India Trade Views"

) the dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at Lums.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Oct 2017 17:38

SSridhar wrote:Oh, great, Manish_P. So, almost 80% of the strikes in NWA did take place before Zerb-e-Azb, then.

Interesting. If the conclusion from the above is that pakis only acted ("Zarb-e-azb") to relieve the pressure on themselves after the US increased the drone strikes in Waziristan, are we to expect a similar operation ("Bad-me-Hazm") to shortly commence in Khurram Agency now that the US has increased drone strikes there and sent in T-Rex with a "do more" message?

Here's another link to additional raw data prepared by Bureau of Investigative Journalism

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1436874561

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Oct 2017 17:43

periaswamy wrote:A delusional enemy is the easiest one to fight -- I am glad the pakis are convinced about their own invincibility. Their 3.5 friends have been reduced to 1 at this point. India could not have achieved this without Paki assistance.

A delusional enemy only fights with itself. Sit back and enjoy.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 27 Oct 2017 17:46

Fri-din Fireworks ? Balochistan Heating Up Again

Five injured in blast targeting passenger train in Bolan, Balochistan

At least five passengers were injured in a blast targeting a passenger train in Balochistan's Bolan district on Friday.

Levies sources said "miscreants" ( ah! that "famous word" about the East Pakistanis being used again to describe the Balochis asserting for their rights. Will history repeat itself ) had targeted the Akbar Bugti Express passenger train ( so the Baloch had no qualms about attacking the train named after one of their hero !) in the Hirak area of district Bolan.

Bogie Number 9 was partially damaged from the impact of the blast, which rocked the entire area, sources added.The injured were rushed to nearby Mach hospital for medical treatment, where an emergency had been declared.

Frontier Corps personnel, levies and police reached the spot as investigations into the incident went underway. The affected train was later brought to the Mach Railway Station.

PS: Are CPEC planners in Isloo and their Chini Advisors taking "due note " of these "miscreants"

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 27 Oct 2017 17:55

Netherlands Blames "Photo-Chor" Khan Without Naming Him

Netherlands technology may have been used for developing WMD in Pakistan: Dutch Intelligence Report

THE HAGUE: The Dutch government has admitted that technology from the Netherlands may have been used to develop weapons of mass destruction in Iran , Pakistan or Syria .Dutch intelligence services have received “indications in a number of cases” that “Dutch technology was used in programmes of WMD or for the means of transmission in Iran, Pakistan or Syria”, the outgoing ministers of defence, foreign affairs and foreign trade said in a letter published overnight on Wednesday. Did the Pakis sell nuclear technology to Syria as well . Or the Syrians got it via Iran ?

In such cases, customs officials can launch investigations which may lead to prosecutions, they added in their reply to a question posed in parliament.Dutch intelligence services “every year uncover a substantial number of attempts by foreign entities to obtain know-how and materials for weapons of mass destruction”, they wrote.

Eichelsheim said the Netherlands was “almost a supermarket for countries that want to develop these types of weapons” and warned that Dutch businesses and scientific establishments were perhaps not fully aware of the extent of the problem.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 27 Oct 2017 17:58

Pakistan is abondoning Haqqani Network: Afghan media report- Times Of Islamabad ( TOI)

TOI is an "organ of the Deep State" . Could be fake news

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 27 Oct 2017 18:07

Pakistan for the first time raises serious concerns over US drones sale to India

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Friday opposed the sale of US drone missile system to India raising concerns that the move can potentially disrupt the balance of power in the region. “International powers must show responsibility before signing such agreements,” Foreign Office spokesman Nafees Zakaria said in his weekly press briefing. . The word "serious" is being used for the first time so expect that tomatoes and onions now will be selling at Rs. 1000 per kilo, as "precious resources" will be further usurped by the fauj to purchase drones from somewhere, to maintain the balance of power !

Zakaria stated that US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had been informed by Pakistan during his recent visit to Islamabad about the country’s continued efforts in the war against terrorism. The US state official had acknowledged and appreciated Pakistan’s efforts in the regard, he added. And therefore, the US should now sell drones to Pakistan as well

The spokesperson said that Pakistan had also raised objections over India’s continuing violations of human rights in Kashmir, adding that Pakistan will not be deterred from providing moral and international support ( as well as hawala funds and human cannon fodder !) to the people of the occupied region.

Responding to a question, Zakaria stated that Pakistan had raised the issue of Indian involvement in terror attacks inside the country. ( Documentary evidence manufactured in Islamabad already supplied a "few times" to the UN )

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 27 Oct 2017 18:12

Abandoning Haqqanis.. Its the sort of news that needs to be responded with a loud snigger followed by vigorous laughter..

The Napakis and the haqqanis are now practially conjoined.. Any change in policy will result in a blow back of TTP propotions..

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 27 Oct 2017 18:15

Paki Being "Leased Out" To IS For Attacks On US

American national in Pakistan planned terrorist attack in New York: FBI

Talha Haroon, a 19-year-old American citizen living in Pakistan, allegedly planned to take part in the attacks,...

The Paki "worthy" in question !

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 27 Oct 2017 18:55

anupmisra wrote:
SSridhar wrote:Oh, great, Manish_P. So, almost 80% of the strikes in NWA did take place before Zerb-e-Azb, then.
Interesting. If the conclusion from the above is that pakis only acted ("Zarb-e-azb") to relieve the pressure on themselves after the US increased the drone strikes in Waziristan, are we to expect a similar operation ("Bad-me-Hazm") to shortly commence in Khurram Agency now that the US has increased drone strikes there and sent in T-Rex with a "do more" message?

Here's another link to additional raw data prepared by Bureau of Investigative Journalism

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1436874561

Exactly that IMHO

The danda was getting too much to bear.

Thanks for sharing the link. Much more data. Nice charts too (will save me some time)

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Oct 2017 19:24

Manish_P wrote:Much more data. Nice charts too (will save me some time)

You must be an Excel jock.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Oct 2017 19:28

Falijee wrote:American national in Pakistan planned terrorist attack in New York: FBI

Its an "American national" if it has negative connotations. Otherwise, it s "paki-brit or paki-twat" if that momeen did something noteworthy.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Oct 2017 19:33

Another day, another tumble. Now the PSX hourly trading charts have started to look like a terminal patient on life support.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1366618/psx-c ... 304-points

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 27 Oct 2017 19:39

anupmisra wrote:
Manish_P wrote:Much more data. Nice charts too (will save me some time)
You must be an Excel jock.

Ah no sir. Just too bored to work on the boring weekly Sales/Spends/Inventories/Allocation spreadsheets and ppts

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 27 Oct 2017 19:52

Ok. Slight issue. The numbers in the document shared in the link above and the earlier document do not match.

At first i thought the earlier poster (probably a paki?) had just lifted the data from this official site and passed of as his own. But there are differences in the counts and also the guy has given some interesting remarks (names, event at the time of strike etc, co-ordinates etc)

The broad trends do match (N Waziristan getting the most love, around 2010 etc) though

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 27 Oct 2017 21:02

Despite Tillerson, US won’t abandon Pakistan for India

It has become commonplace to caution American policymakers against irrational exuberance when dealing with India: Keep expectations low (conventional wisdom goes) and you won’t be disappointed. In the wake of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to New Delhi this week, perhaps the same advice could be directed to India’s leadership. Despite warm welcome by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the pleasantries at Gandhi Smriti, and the promises of “an even brighter future,” don’t expect a radical change in US policy.

Jonah Blank, author of ‘Arrow of the Blue-Skinned God: Retracing the Ramayana Through India,’ is a senior political scientist at the US think-tank, RAND Corporation. He tweets @JonahBlank

periaswamy · Post by **periaswamy** » 27 Oct 2017 21:11

RAND has always been in favor of "working with the paki army".. the excuse given by Jonah Blank here is similar to what a certain TSJ used to throw out when the reason for US not dealing with pakistan for its betrayal. And yet somehow, the US also deliberately stopped cooperation with Central Asian states and Russia in creating an alternate supply line. The Americans have to remain in Afghanisthan for as long as they can to have any influence at all in that region, and Pakistani terrorism in Afghanisthan is the perfect excuse for them to do so. If the US left afghanisthan, the nearest place where they will have a base/foothold is in the saudi peninsula, and none in central/east/south asia. BS excuses like "supply chain for troops" makes no sense, when you ask the question, "why do you need troops there in the first place, if you can just take the pakis down and get out of there, or just get out of there without taking the pakis down?" -- "Bin Laden" is dead so the Global Offensive Against Terror (GOAT) has been won, and victory has been declared already, so what's stopping the US state dept. from just leaving?

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Oct 2017 22:06

periaswamy wrote:...so what's stopping the US state dept. from just leaving?

Here's why (in my very humble opinion).

1. Afghanistan is strategically located amongst the 'Stans, Eyeran and Russia.If we were to lose Afghanistan, the nearest listening post is in Turkey (and, see where they are going)

2. Pakhanistan: If pureland were to overtly go rogue via a coup or islamic takeover (viz., its nuclear bums go "rouge" or threaten to go "rouge"), their "secret" locations are a hop and a skip and a jump from Bagram. Bin Laden was a test

3. China (and in particular, its restive Xinjiang region). The Hans fear afghans more than their own Uighurs. Aghanistan provides eyes and ears on the ground

4. Minerals: untapped minerals, and how do you get 'em out. That is why "peace" with the pakis is key to this venture

5. And lastly, in my opinion, Afghanistan itself. Like it or not, it is an ego issue. We have lost many young people there and must have something to show for it. No one wants another Vietnam although the Pakis will be quick to call it one ("we have beaten two world super powers" and all that nonsense)

periaswamy · Post by **periaswamy** » 27 Oct 2017 22:19

Anupji, I am in agreement with 1,2, and 3 -- they need a foothold in Afghanisthan to remain relevant and be able influence events in China, India, Russia, Central Asia and the Middle east.

I am not too sure about the mineral angle, given that US has the clout to make deals with countries across the globe for copper and other minerals if it needs to.

Re: 5, the US has reduced forces after declaring victory a few times, the most recent one being the killing of Bin Laden. But 1,2,and, 3 always means they need a "small force" even after the "war on terror" has been "won" and "al qaeda" is now a "moderate ally of the US" in syria.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 27 Oct 2017 22:31

X Posted on the PESW Thread

Uncertainty has wiped $18.5b off Pakistan’s stock market

KARACHI: Not too long ago, the government sold a 40% stake in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) to the Chinese at Rs28 per share.

Since then, as of Thursday, the Chinese consortium had seen its investment shed close to 30% of the total value of $86 million.

Additionally, close to $18.5 billion have been wiped off Pakistan’s stock market since the KSE-100 Index – a benchmark for market performance – closed at 52,876.46 – its personal best achieved on May 24 this year. Share prices have plummeted and not a single equity-based fund has posted a positive return in the last nine months.

Come October, there is no recovery in sight.

Weekly review: KSE-100 succumbs to political apprehensions, 1,097 points wiped off

The index settled below 41,500 on Thursday, an overall retreat of close to 22%, as the stock market’s worst year since 2008 continued.

Volumes have dried up and volatility has risen. Investors are sitting on the bench and awaiting clarity. Some have made the exit while a few are patiently waiting for a positive trigger.

The gloomy situation at the PSX is a far cry from what it was in 2016 when the KSE-100 posted the best return in Asia that was also among the top five in the world.

Now, it has become one of the cheapest emerging markets, but buyers are still missing in action.

What went wrong for the PSX which, at one point, was the government’s strongest pitch to the world?

“Stock markets everywhere abhor uncertainty,” said Maheen Rahman, CEO at Alfalah GHP that manages over Rs28 billion in assets, according to the latest data available with the Mutual Funds Association of Pakistan.

The uncertainty arose when Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from the seat of prime minister, a fate that would subsequently result in a reshuffled cabinet, a new premier and reports of infighting within the ruling party. During the time, the Pakistani rupee lost 3.5% against the US dollar for literally 24 hours, and noise over falling foreign exchange reserves, piling debt and widening current account/trade deficits increased further.

As if that wasn’t enough, the country’s finance minister, a staunch believer of keeping the rupee strong, inched closer to an ungraceful exit as well over corruption charges. With him gone, there is no telling when the rupee would fall.

Rahman feels that rupee depreciation is playing on the minds of investors, but some of it has been factored in already.

“At this stage, the stock market has priced in the ex-prime-minister’s departure, at least a 5% depreciation in the rupee and the expectation of greater political noise along with foreign policy shifts leading into 2018.”

While the government has categorically ruled out rupee depreciation, Rahman said some sectors stand to benefit if it does eventually happen.

“Banking sector is likely to be a major beneficiary of the devaluation, as higher inflation could push interest rates higher. Oil and gas exploration, power companies and export-oriented sectors such as textiles and technology companies are also likely to benefit.”

Samiullah Tariq, director research and business development at Arif Habib Limited, echoed the same view.

“It (rupee depreciation) appears to be a potential trigger,” said Tariq. “45-50% of KSE-100 companies provide a hedge against the rupee/dollar parity, whereas the remaining major sectors have enough pricing power to pass on the cost.

“Such an event might also attract foreign flows as it would be an end to the uncertainty regarding rupee parity.”

While local money managers are wary of the looming risk, potential rupee depreciation is also playing on the minds of foreign investors who want to avoid an immediate hit if the dollar gains in value.

“The looming risk of devaluation is restricting an entry point for foreign active managers who want to avoid an immediate 10-15% hit in dollar terms if rupee depreciates in the coming months,” said Shamoon Tariq, partner and portfolio manager at Sweden-based Tundra Fonder that has an exposure of roughly $100 million in the PSX.

Distressing indicators

While the stubborn rupee may be playing on the minds of investors, it is Pakistan’s worrying economic indicators that are at the core of the problem.

PM likely to announce bailout package for stock market

A widening trade deficit has forced the government to increase regulatory duty on 356-plus items as it bids to restrict imports while also taking a shot at increasing tax collection.

It may be a quick fix, but many believe that underlying structural changes – including reducing losses of state-owned enterprises, reforming the tax system that includes broadening the base, and creating a conducive environment for businesses – are key to higher economic growth.

Stakeholders say the domestic demand story is resilient, and just some amendments are needed.

“Those of us with clear memories of 2008 understand the benefits of value-investing,” said Rahman. “Pakistan’s domestic demand story is resilient, earnings of companies have continued to grow and valuations are at 2-year lows. Structural adjustments are needed and overall, the political process should be respected and not hampered to restore investor confidence.

Samiullah Tariq also said the PSX is equipped enough to deal with mishaps, ruling out the possibility of a repeat of 2008 when the stock market crashed and was shut down. “The market is more equipped today than ever to deal with mishaps. With the market already reclining from its all-time high of near 53k, chances of an upside are likely to overshadow bearish notions.”

Cheers

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Oct 2017 23:18

See my comments in red below.

periaswamy wrote:I am not too sure about the mineral angle, given that US has the clout to make deals with countries across the globe for copper and other minerals if it needs to. This is getting out of topic but ...not if the Chinese get to those mineral rights first and start to economically and politically manipulate the global prices (and by extension, the stock markets. Can't allow that to happen. We do not want the same Africa effect to take place in Afghanistan, especially when it is right next to China and Chini grandiose plans to connect with European markets

Re: 5, the US has reduced forces after declaring victory a few times, the most recent one being the killing of Bin Laden. But 1,2,and, 3 always means they need a "small force" even after the "war on terror" has been "won" and "al qaeda" is now a "moderate ally of the US" in syria. That may have been with Iraq but the US has never fully backed out of Afghanistan. About AQ and Syria, that's another subject for another thread

I really enjoy and look forward to this global politik discussion.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 28 Oct 2017 00:35

anupmisra wrote:
periaswamy wrote:...so what's stopping the US state dept. from just leaving?

Here's why (in my very humble opinion).

...

6) IMVHO... OBOR/BRI. The US wants a toll booth right at the point where such a network, if it comes to pass, will exit China headed west to the CAS and southwest to the all-important Gulf. Just as it sits on the chokepoints of Chinese trade in Japan, Korea, and the Straits of Malacca, it wants the land route under its control as well, to whatever extent possible.

On a side note, if true, this priority would show how insignificant the US considers CPEC to be.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 28 Oct 2017 00:52

Ghusalkhanistan has just shot down an Indian drone. Take a gander and smile....

Army says has shot down 'Indian' drone 'spying' across LoC
Shame on Indians for using a $450 missille-laden spying drone on the Trillion Dollar economic power.

Pakistan Army said Friday evening they had shot down an 'Indian' quadcopter they suspected of 'spying' on the Rakhchikri sector of Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

it seemed that the quadcopter being used was of the commercially available variety of drones

The army said it had seized the wreckage

The developement also recalls similar incidents in the past. In November last year, when Pakistan army had said it shot down a quadcopter, also in the Rakhchikri sector, suspected to be on an espionage mission.

Darn it! Now they have the wreckage and will certainly reverse engineer it. By the way DJI is a chini company (oh, the irony!)

https://www.dawn.com/news/1366624/army- ... across-loc

Crafty yindoos should have removed all tell tale markings of the DJI product. (Also available at your local flipcart or Amazon outlet for $450)

https://www.adorama.com/djiph3s.html?gc ... gJNkvD_BwE

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 28 Oct 2017 02:17

US SHALL STOP LISTENING TO “FAILED” GENERALS ON AFGHANISTAN

Cheers

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 28 Oct 2017 02:48

'Death to blasphemers' increasing as political rallying cry in Pakistan

SWABI: Three police officers stand guard daily at the tomb of Pakistani student Mashal Khan to prevent religious hardliners from fulfilling threats to blow up the grave of the 23-year-old beaten to death over rumours he blasphemed against Islam.

His grieving family, now also under police protection, say they have little hope the shocking campus killing will prompt a re-examination of blasphemy laws that carry a death penalty, or action against the mob justice that often erupts in such cases.

On Friday, there was more evidence the opposite is happening.

A new political party that has made punishing blasphemers its main rallying cry won a surprisingly strong 7.6 per cent of the vote in a by-election in Peshawar, 60 km (36 miles) from where Mashal Khan was killed six months ago.

"Death to blasphemers! Death to blasphemers!" was a common chant of supporters of the Tehrik-e-Labaik Pakistan party at its campaign rallies in the conservative northwestern city.

The party's relatively strong showing - and a separate outcry over a proposed change to an election law that outraged the religious right - has elevated blasphemy into a potent political issue in the run-up to a general election in 2018.

While Tehrik-e-Labaik (Movement of the Prophet's Followers) is unlikely to break out of single digits in coming votes, its rapid rise, along with another ultra-religious party, could create an additional challenge for the ruling Pakistani Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

The PML-N party's leader, Nawaz Sharif, was ousted as prime minister in July by the Supreme Court, and opposition leader Imran Khan - who spearheaded the legal case that removed him over unreported income - is seeking to press the advantage.

Religious right gains

In this week's Peshawar by-election, former cricket star Imran's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party swept to a comfortable victory to retain the parliamentary seat, winning 34.8 per cent of the vote.

Sharif's PML-N had 18.9 per cent, narrowly coming in third to the regionally strong Awami National Party that won just 40 more votes.

But the gains by the Labaik party - formed just last year - have grabbed attention.

Labaik draws most of its support from the Barelvi branch of Sunni Islam, the largest sect in Pakistan that is traditionally considered moderate. Though the party does not publicly talk about it funding, the Barelvis have a network of mosques and madrassa religious schools that collect donations.

The party emerged out of a protest movement against the state's execution of Mumtaz Qadri, a bodyguard of the governor of Punjab province who gunned down his boss in 2011 over his call to reform Pakistan's blasphemy laws, among the world's harshest, to prevent abuses.

Qadri is considered a hero by the party, and its candidate in Peshawar, Muhammad Shafiq Ameeni, was equally supportive of Mashal Khan's killers, although the student's death was not a main feature at campaign rallies.

"It was state's responsibility to punish a blasphemer, no two opinions, but when state doesn't do its job and someone does kill, he shouldn't be punished as a murderer," Amini said, referring to the 57 people who face trial over Mashal Khan's death.

In Pakistan, allegiance to Islam is the official line of most major parties, but ultra-religious parties have so far remained on the fringes.

Labaik is one of two new ultra-religious parties formed in roughly the past year.

Together, Labaik and the Milli Muslim League (MML) gained about 11 per cent of the vote in last month's by-election in Lahore and 10.4 per cent in Peshawar, whereas the established religious parties, such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam, combined had 5.3 per cent in the 2013 national election.

Ruling party under fire

Blasphemy is such an effective wedge issue in Pakistan because there is almost no defence against an accusation.

For that reason, say critics, blasphemy laws are often invoked to settle personal scores and to intimidate liberal journalists, lawyers and politicians.

Dozens of Pakistanis are sitting on death row after being convicted of insulting Islam's prophet, a specific charge that carries a mandatory death sentence, though no executions have been carried out in recent decades.

Now, political parties may be in danger of facing blasphemy accusations themselves.

Earlier in October, the PML-N found itself in the middle of a firestorm when it voted through seemingly small changes to the nation's electoral law.

The changes, among other things, turned a religious oath in the electoral laws stating that Mohammad was the last prophet of Muslims into a declaration using the words "I declare".

The alterations prompted accusations of blasphemy from the religious right and the government quickly retreated, terming the change a "clerical" mistake and apologising in parliament.

Labaik has vowed to hold a mass rally on Nov. 6 to demand the lawmakers responsible be prosecuted for blasphemy.

Mob killings

Even before the Labaik party's political debut, politicians found promising swift action against blasphemers an easy way to appeal to conservative voters.

In March, then-prime minister Sharif issued a public order to prosecute anyone posting blasphemous content online.

The next month, Mashal Khan was accused of online blasphemy and beaten to death by fellow students and religious activists as onlookers filmed the scene. Sharif said he was "shocked and saddened" by the "senseless display of mob justice".

At least 67 people have been killed over unproven blasphemy allegations since 1990, according human rights groups.

Mashal Khan's father, Iqbal, said his son was the victim of false rumours.

The family has received death threats from right-wingers and Mashal's sisters had to drop out of school.

"The snakes our country nurtured are now biting us," the father said, two days before the Peshawar by-election, standing beside his son's gave strewn with flowers, lace and poetry.

Learning of the Labaik party's gains a few days later only made him more pessimistic about the government's ability to stop abuse of blasphemy accusations.

"I know very well, I'm not going to get my son back," he said. "But this only adds to my pain."

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 28 Oct 2017 03:10

Act on terror, or we’ll do it our way, US tells Pakistan

WASHINGTON: The United States on Friday issued its direst warning to Pakistan to roll up terrorist groups operating in the country and end the establishment support for such groups, warning that if Islamabad chose not to act, Washington will find ways to achieve its objectives.

Days after US Secretary of States Rex Tillerson stopped in Islamabad for four hours to deliver a blunt message that American support to Pakistan was ''conditions-based,'' Senior US officials who accompanied him on the trip signaled that Washington had devised other ways to achieve its objective of eliminating terrorist groups and stabilising Afghanistan.

"It's up to them whether or not they want to work with us,'' acting assistant secretary of state for South Asia Alice Wells told reporters Wells. ''And if they don't ... then we'll adjust accordingly.''

In language that echoed that cryptic warning, State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert told PTI that the US will "adjust" its tactics and strategies to achieve the objective in a "different way."

Dismissing Pakistan's bogus narrative - largely for its domestic consumption - that India and US are backing terror groups in Afghanistan that are attacking Pakistan, Wells said Washington wanted Pakistan to show the same commitment it made to defeat militant groups domestically to those threatening Afghanistan or India.

Pakistan's recent tactics include cooking up stories about India's alleged support to the Teherik-E-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and tales of Indian subversives in Pakistan, for neither of which it has produced any conclusive evidence.

It has also invoked support from (real) allies such as China, and purported allies such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Turkey to counter US pressure.

But the Tillerson mission has evidently ignored Pakistan's diplomatic gambits and rebuffed its self-serving narratives that have also been rejected at international forums including at the U.N., where Pakistani officials have attempted to present dossiers claiming Indian subversion in Pakistan.

Instead, Tillerson appears to have sternly told Islamabad that the US fears for Pakistan's own future if the country remains in denial about its continued support to terror groups.

Pakistan keeps repeating the claim that it has taken a lead role in the war on terror and has suffered as a consequence, although its establishment still nurtures US and UN designated terrorists such as Hafiz Saeed, Maulana Masood Azhar, and

Pakistan has also been unable to explain why so many of the world's most wanted terrorists have been found within its borders.

''Pakistan needs to, I think, take a clear-eyed view of the situation that they are confronted with in terms of the number of terrorist organizations that find safe haven inside of Pakistan,'' Tillerson said bluntly during his trip to the region.

Pakistan and its shills and sympathisers have long argued that the US lacks the leverage to change the country behavior, but the Trump administration has shown that it is willing to use blunt force instruments, including military and financial pressure to bend Islamabad to its will.

Tillerson's visit to Pakistan was preceded by half-dozen drone strikes inside Pakistan and the disenfranchising in the US of a prominent Pakistani bank on grounds of dodgy operations. US officials have indicated they have more tools at their disposal if Pakistan remains defiant or in denial.

Cheers

saip · Post by **saip** » 28 Oct 2017 06:10

Shot down without any holes? Probably just crashed (could be Pakis own)

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Oct 2017 06:38

Ashokk wrote:'Death to blasphemers' increasing as political rallying cry in Pakistan
. . . A new political party that has made punishing blasphemers its main rallying cry won a surprisingly strong 7.6 per cent of the vote in a by-election in Peshawar . . . "Death to blasphemers! Death to blasphemers!" was a common chant of supporters of the Tehrik-e-Labaik Pakistan party at its campaign rallies in the conservative northwestern city. . . Labaik draws most of its support from the Barelvi branch of Sunni Islam, the largest sect in Pakistan that is traditionally considered moderate. . . . The party emerged out of a protest movement against the state's execution of Mumtaz Qadri . . . Qadri is considered a hero by the party, and its candidate in Peshawar, Muhammad Shafiq Ameeni, was equally supportive of Mashal Khan's killers, although the student's death was not a main feature at campaign rallies. . . . Labaik is one of two new ultra-religious parties formed in roughly the past year.

We have constantly said here that Berelvis & Sufis are not 'moderates' by any stretch of imagination.

arun · Post by **arun** » 28 Oct 2017 10:30

X Posted from “Pakistani Economic Stress Watch” thread.

Vips wrote:Pakistani author shatters delusions of paki dreams of earning toll income form CPEC which is three times pakistani budget size by 2030!!!

The author did some research regarding the freight market size, the tolls that can be levied etc. Not knowing that the whole effort is wasted as Chinese have a written agreement with Pakistani government and no toll can be charged on Chinese trucks/good movement.

Excerpt from the above:

Earlier this month, the Board of Investment claimed that the CPEC toll income would be three times the budget of Pakistan after completion by 2030. It is the first time an official figure on CPEC toll estimates has come out and needs some objective appraisal.

Pakistan’s budget this year stood at Rs4.75 trillion. Thrice this amount would mean Rs14+ trillion ($135+ billion).

Talk of CPEC generating toll income of USD 135 Billion is typical braggart claim from the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan that has no basis in reality.

Consider the Suez Canal revenue for the 10 months January to October 2017 amounted to USD 4.3 Billion for an annualised USD 5.16 Billion.

Suez Canal revenues up to USD 4.3 billion in 2017: SCZone Chairman

Al-Masry Al-Youm
October 19, 2017 3:29 pm

The chairman of Suez Canal Authority (SCA) and SCZone — the Suez Canal Economic Zone, Mohab Mamish, announced on Wednesday that the SCA’s revenues raised by 3.4 per cent within the period from January-October 2017, increasing to $US4.3 billion up from $US4.2 billion in 2016. ……………..

Suez Canal revenues up to USD 4.3 billion in 2017: SCZone Chairman

Then consider that the Panama Canal revenue for the 6 months January to June 2017 amounted to USD 1.1 Billion for an annualised USD 2,2 Billion revenue:

Panama Canal toll revenues up 19.7% in first half 2017

Panama Canal revenues totaled US $ 1,119.5 million in the first half of this year, up 19.7% from US $ 935.3 million in the same period of National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) released today.

08/08/2017 - 15:59 ·Panama, Aug 8 (EFE) .- Panama Canal revenues totaled $ 1,119.5 million in the first half of this year, 19.7% more than the 935.3 million in the same period of 2016 According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) released today. ………………..

Panama Canal toll revenues up 19.7% in first half 2017

gunnvant · Post by **gunnvant** » 28 Oct 2017 11:42

Manish_P wrote:Couple more pivots (on the data in the post of the Drone Strikes, shared by poster Gunnvant)

I just wanted to see if the birds had any preferred hunting time

Pivot of Drone strike with hourly time-slots

Awesome Sir!! You know your pivots. OT kaggle.com has more datasets from different themes, may be we can discuss them here across different forums. May be some seniors can take a look at them? Might be useful in economics or other such dhagas

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 Oct 2017 12:29

'Today’s US ‘terrorist’ can be US ally tomorrow' – Former Pakistani intel chief

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 28 Oct 2017 14:12

gunnvant wrote:
Awesome Sir!! You know your pivots. OT kaggle.com has more datasets from different themes, may be we can discuss them here across different forums. May be some seniors can take a look at them? Might be useful in economics or other such dhagas

Sure sir. Only to glad to contribute whenever i can, in whatever basic way i can. I need to be careful where i save the data though.. don't want to mail my Regional Sales Heads the region-wise casualty figures