'Make in India' Single engined fighter

[brar_w]

There were news reports that the deal had been signed, and the price being reported was even higher than the FMS notification. But AW&ST has disputed the news, stating that it hasn't yet been signed. But I would not expect the costs to be much lower than the FMS notification at least.

You won't get the cost of the aircraft from the size of the deal on most typical ME contracts.

[Kartik]

Why does that matter? It's not like the SE Fighter program cost will be only for the aircraft. There will be a whole lot more associated with that program as well. And that program cost is not going to be cheap.

[Rakesh]

Okay, I am calling it. The SE deal will be won by Dassault. Yup, you read that right. By Dassault. And the clincher will be the twin engine Rafale. There will be a follow on order for a minimum of 36 Rafales (I am thinking 72) for the Air Force + 57 for the Navy. I am all for assembly of phoren aircraft, as long as Tejas development continues.

The SEF deal CANNOT be won by Dassault since it is not going to be able to participate in it. What could happen is that the entire effort is scrapped or set aside due to various reasons and additional Rafales pursued. But that isn't the same thing as picking a twin engined aircraft after requiring global bids for a single engine fighter.

Saar, I know that And it appears it will be scrapped at the snail's pace it is moving now. I am reproducing two posts - one is mine from page 115 of this very thread and the other is from Kartik from the IAF: News & Discussion thread. The two posts will be right below this one.

Based on what "solutions" Air Marshal S B Deo provides, the IAF will come to conclusion that the process of acquiring another 36 Rafales will move at a much faster rate than the 11 stage competition of the single engine contract. An option for 36 additional Rafales is already there in the contract. SE deal may or may not continue. But if another 36 Rafales come, 100 new phoren fighters will become an after thought. 126 were needed. If 72 come via Rafales, who is going to transfer a production line for 54 aircraft?

Lockheed Martin is not providing any confidence either by making asinine demands - before they win the competition - that they refuse to certify any Indian made F-16s. That flies in the face of Make in India.

And before we even get to the numbers issue (100 is greater than 36), remember acquiring 100 new fighters has to go through the 11 stages of MoD clearance, something a follow on order of 36 Rafales do not have to endure. Does the IAF have time? The import lobby says no! The IAF thinks otherwise. Make no mistake, the GoI will keep the SE competition alive and moving to keep Unkil happy. They will delay and keep pushing the file from one ministry to the next. Finally Unkil onlee will give up. We are masters of delaying.

By the way, you put it best in a previous page of this very thread...

Hopefully, saner heads will prevail at the MOD, shifting focus on LCA MK1, MK2 and perhaps another Rafale off the shelf buy.

[Rakesh]

Repetition of previous post from page 115 of the SE thread....

IAF to issue RFI for Single Engine Combat Aircraft within October 2017
http://www.indiastrategic.in/2017/10/05 ... ober-2017/

Notably, Lockheed Martin has tied up on its own with Tata Advanced Systems Ltd (TASL) and so has Saab with the Adani Group. After either or both are selected on technical parameters in flight trials, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) will approve the winner on the basis of commercial terms and how much Transfer of Technology (ToT) in sophisticated equipment accrues to India. According to IAF Deputy Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal R Nambiar, IAF expected the two companies to respond to the RFI in about three months, the flight trials should take about a year, the contract should be signed shortly thereafter, and the process should wrap up with deliveries of the first lot of flyaway aircraft in less than five years as of now. As the two companies have already tied up with their Indian partners, the process to set up the factory for the selected aircraft should begin soon after the winner is announced, and just as the winner completes the delivery of the flyaway aircraft, its production in India should also begin simultaneously.

- How is the MoD going to approve a winner on the basis of how much ToT in sophisticated equipment comes to India? What is the criteria that the MoD uses to determine what is sophisticated equipment? Who in the MoD writes up these asinine requirements? Neither company is going to provide zilch and why should they? LM has already flatly refused and Saab - despite all the hot air - can't transfer nothing without Uncle Sam's approval. This is MMRCA redux all over again

Let us breakdown the timeline based on the above article.

1] The IAF plans to issue the RFI this month itself. LM and Saab are expected to respond to the RFI within three months. Let us assume that both companies respond by Dec 31, 2017 for argument's sake since it is still early October.

2] Flight trials are expected to take another year. So that takes it to the end of 2018.

3] The MoD expects the contract to signed shortly thereafter - which means endless negotations - but let's say that takes only a year. So now that takes us to the end of 2019 when the contract will be signed. Fingers Crossed And if the Congress Party wins the 2019 General Elections and AK Antony comes back, hehehehehe

4] The first of the flyaway aircraft are expected to join the IAF roughly five years from that date. So now the end of 2024 for the delivery of the first of 18 flyaway aircraft. Hopefully!

5] Assume it then takes 1.5 years to deliver 18 flyaway aircraft and now we are in mid 2026.

6] Mid 2026 is roughly the same time production will commence in the Indian factory as per the article above.

7] Now as per LM's own admission, scaling up production will take time. Saab is surprisingly silent on that issue. So let's say it takes 12 months to roll out the first plane from the factory. So now expect the first screwdrivergiri plane to arrive at mid 2027 What is really tragic is hundreds and thousands (maybe millions) of our fellow countrymen will be starving for jobs for another 10 years because after all assembling these planes is meant to boost other sectors of the economy. Perhaps we should invite the United Way (or some other charitable organisation) to feed, clothe and house all the people who will be unemployed till 2027.

8] From that date, the factory has FIVE years by Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa's own admission...that the IAF will reach a full strength of 42 squadrons. 2032 to be exact. And that claim is there in that above article also. So that means close to 20 aircraft per year to reach the magic number of 96 aircraft to be made in the factory. From two organizations - Tata or Adani - that has zero experience in screwdrivergiri, because that is what this will be.

[Rakesh]

Reproduction of Kartik's post (only article) in the IAF: News & Discussion thread.

Defence Minister pulls up IAF

The top brass of the Indian Air Force has reportedly been pulled up by Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman for inappropriate responses on its depleting squadron strength before a parliamentary panel. At a meeting of the Parliamentary Consultative Committee on Defence on October 27, IAF officials, including Vice Chief Air Marshal S B Deo, were reportedly criticised by the minister, as they only talked about the problems related to depleting squadron strength, but did not offer any solution. As the meeting discussed the IAF's depleting strength, Deo explained the problems to the lawmakers but stopped short of suggesting a solution to the crisis. This angered the minister, who wanted IAF and defence ministry officials to also tell the MPs about the possible solution.

The officials later told the minister that in the next meeting of the panel, they would come prepared with possible solutions on the vexed issue. The IAF's squadron strength has come down to 33 in comparison to the sanctioned strength of 42. Of the 33 squadrons, nearly 10 squadrons are made up of old MiG-21 and MiG-27 aircraft that are being phased out. The only new induction is 36 French origin Rafale aircraft. The first one is expected to be inducted by 2019. The IAF would also get another 36 Su-30 MKI aircraft and plans to induct more than 120 indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft. To make up for the MiG multi-role combat jets on the verge of retirement, the IAF is looking at purchasing more single-engine fighter aircraft of the same class. The government, however, is yet to take a final decision on the proposal.

[Rakesh]

If dassault/reliance wins then few things are quite likely to happen before.

1. M88 + kaveri will be working out.
2. RBE2 may come for Tejas

If those two things happen, then the only TOT Reliance will see is some composite manufacturing skills that it will pick up in its screwdriver giri along with inflated profits. It will be nice if they refit the indian rafale (if ever made with Kaveri88 or Kaveri100) with a local M88 + Kaveri product.

I do wish that we form a GTRE + Safran + HAL company that works on the following;
Kaveri100 for LCA mk2
Kaveri120 for AMCA
Kaveri144M for MKI
Kaveri144P for PAKFA

GTRE and Safran work on R&D and HAL for producing the final engine at the Koraput plant.

This will allow both PAKFA and AMCA to move forward and give us a real aviation infrastructure to move forward.

Good post and good points. I like the term - Kaveri88. If Turbomeca - a division of Safran - can do that for the Shakti engine, they can adopt a similar model for the Kaveri engine as well.

Ignore empty vessels. They make the most sound, but are devoid of substance

[Rakesh]

Is screwdrivergiri considered a skill?

Defence Ministry bats for integration and skilling of manpower in defence industry, MSMEs say much needed
http://knnindia.co.in/news/newsdetails/ ... uch-needed

Explaining the problem of technology, he said that the foreign companies are not ready to share or transfer the defense technology to India. The agreement between Lockheed Martin and Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) to make the F-16 fighters aircrafts in India involves no tech transfer. “The Indian Government’s dream of Make in India in defense sector is facing numerous hurdles, a lot needs to be done” he added.

[Rakesh]

Indigenous Defence Projects worth Rs 3.5 Lakh Crore stuck due to long procedural bottlenecks
http://www.india.com/news/india/indigen ... s-2583925/

Defence projects worth Rs 3.5 lakh crore under Make in India campaign–that promotes indigenous development and manufacturing have not been finalised yet due to a variety of reasons including bureaucratic bottlenecks, long procedures, and the lack of proper political backing, a media report suggested. TOI reported that about six mega projects are stuck as the final contracts have not been signed yet. The projects are related to infantry combat vehicles (FICVs), light utility helicopters and Naval multi-role choppers to new-generation stealth submarines, mine counter-measure vessels (MCMVs) and fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA).

The newspaper reported that the initial request for information (RFI) for Make in India project to produce 114 single-engine fighters is about to be issued by the government and Gripen-E (Sweden) and F-16 (US) jets are fighting for a one-lakh crore project. But it will take years to start indigenous production. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is meeting the defence acquisitions council every regularly to speed up the process. A senior official said that these projects were complex for India which cannot even manufacture specialised ammunition.

The Rs 60,000-crore infantry combat vehicles contract is stuck due to the question whether the five private firms be asked to design and build prototypes. The Defence Minister is holding meetings to resolve the issue. The FGFA project with Russia to develop Sukhoi T-50 fighter still hangs in balance after India had raised doubts over the stealth capabilities of the aircraft. “It will have to be a top political decision whether to go in for the FGFA project or junk it,” a source told TOI.

[Rakesh]

Supersonic test keeps Gripen E on target
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... et-442657/

Saab's Gripen E remains on track for delivery to the Swedish and Brazilian air forces from 2019, with the Swedish company's first prototype having recently passed a significant performance milestone.

[Rakesh]

Inimical Forces will attempt to jeopardise military modernisation
http://bharatshakti.in/inimical-forces- ... rnisation/

By Major General Harsha Kakar (Retd)

We need a person who is not pro-self, but pro-India and can thus utilise the resources to the best, rather than sitting on files for personal intangible gains.

[Rakesh]

Let us examine the squadron shortage. I am going to use 2019 as a starting point, because that is when all 272 Su-30MKIs will be completed. The IAF needs 42 squadrons to effectively fight a two front war and since the IAF uses 18 aircraft to form a full squadron, I am going to use that number for all calculations below. So in 2019, the IAF ORBAT will be;

- 15 Su-30MKI Squadrons - 272 aircraft
- 3 upgraded MiG-29 Squadrons - 54 aircraft
- 2.5 upgraded Mirage 2000 Squadrons - 45 aircraft
- 6 Jaguar Squadrons - 108 aircraft
- 4 MiG-27 Squadrons - 72 aircraft (wiki has it at 66). If am I wrong, please advise.
- 11.5 MiG-21 Squadrons - 207 aircraft (wiki has it at 245). If am I wrong, please advise.

The above comes to 42 squadrons as of 2019. But as per the IAF, there are only 33 fighter squadrons right now. So let me revise the above to remove some of the MiG-21 squadrons. Against a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons, only 33 squadrons are available. So that means the IAF is nine squadrons short or 162 aircraft. So a revision of the above would be;

- 15 Su-30MKI Squadrons - 272 aircraft
- 3 upgraded MiG-29 Squadrons - 54 aircraft
- 2.5 upgraded Mirage 2000 Squadrons - 45 aircraft
- 6 Jaguar Squadrons - 108 aircraft
- 4 MiG-27 Squadrons - 72 aircraft
- 4 MiG-21 Squadrons - 72 aircraft. I am aware there are more than four MiG-21 squadrons, but this is just for a numbers perspective.

So 207 MiG-21s (11.5 squadrons) + 72 MiG-27s (4 squadrons) need to be replaced and ASAP as per the Defence Minister. Two Rafale squadrons are coming in 2019 and if a follow on order for another 36 Rafales are placed, they can replace each of the four MiG-27 squadrons on a 1-to-1 basis. That leaves the 207 MiG-21s that need to be replaced.

So if 16 Tejas can be produced each year by HAL, it would take ~13 years to complete the order of 207 aircraft. That would mean by 2031 - 13 years from now - the IAF should be at full strength. By the early 2030s though, the upgraded MiG-29s, Mirage 2000s and Jaguars will begin the process of retirement. So by then AMCA should be coming along. I do not see AMCA before 2035, in FOC configuration, though.

[Karan M]

Simple and lucid calculations Rakesh. I would surmise though the MiG-27s are all but retired and will be gone soon enough, as the Su-30s and Rafales come in. IAF is so fed up of their maintenance hassles they didn't even bother upgrading all 4 squadrons and stopped at two. Similarly, the last MiG-21 squadrons around are likely MiG-21 Bison (some six squadrons) and a few more Bis ones, including the few aircraft detachments at TACDE or other places. We dont have all Su-30s in service right now, so they will suffice to offset some of the MiGs being retired.
Ideally we should get some more Rafales, 2-3 squadrons more and focus on the Tejas Mk2 pronto + AMCA. Even if AMCA delay (certain given how delayed our financing is) causes JSF purchase or FGFA or whatever, we will still have 200+ airframes of local provenance in our fleet and that has a huge effect on local aerospace. Thinking of radars, missiles, systems across all our fighters and other aircraft.

[ShauryaT]

My preference is we focus on upping the production of the Tejas and NLCA and let Mk1 and Mk2 production be fully realized till 2035. Transition the Su-30 production lines to the FGFA through the 20's. Transition the LCA lines to the AMCA through the 2030's. Acquire 1-2 more squadrons of Rafale or better standardize on the Mig29/35 family with the IN.

It will balance numbers, capabilities, risk, threats, budgets, indigenous evolution and most important strategic independence.

[Rakesh]

Simple and lucid calculations Rakesh. I would surmise though the MiG-27s are all but retired and will be gone soon enough, as the Su-30s and Rafales come in. IAF is so fed up of their maintenance hassles they didn't even bother upgrading all 4 squadrons and stopped at two. Similarly, the last MiG-21 squadrons around are likely MiG-21 Bison (some six squadrons) and a few more Bis ones, including the few aircraft detachments at TACDE or other places. We dont have all Su-30s in service right now, so they will suffice to offset some of the MiGs being retired.
Ideally we should get some more Rafales, 2-3 squadrons more and focus on the Tejas Mk2 pronto + AMCA. Even if AMCA delay (certain given how delayed our financing is) causes JSF purchase or FGFA or whatever, we will still have 200+ airframes of local provenance in our fleet and that has a huge effect on local aerospace. Thinking of radars, missiles, systems across all our fighters and other aircraft.

Thank You Karan. Good to know the MiG-27s are on their way out. And also that there are approx six MiG-21 Bison squadrons + a few Bis squadrons as well. Is the M/MF variant still in service? I believe ACM Dhanoa flew in one earlier this year.

- MiG-21 Bison - approx 6 Squadrons
- MiG-21bis - approx 2 Squadrons

So that makes a total of 8+ MiG-21 Squadrons. Assuming the MiG-27s are only at 2 squadrons of UPG variant, that would explain the gap in my calculations which I am now revising below.

- 15 Su-30MKI Squadrons - 272 aircraft
- 3 upgraded MiG-29 Squadrons - 54 aircraft
- 2.5 upgraded Mirage 2000 Squadrons - 45 aircraft
- 6 Jaguar Squadrons - 108 aircraft
- 2 MiG-27 Squadrons - 36 aircraft
- 8 MiG-21 Squadrons - 144 aircraft

The above comes to 36.5 squadrons, so basically 3.5 squadrons more than the current strength of 33 squadrons. I don't need to fine tune this down to a science or the exact number...but I get the gist of it.

Moral of the Story --> This squadron shortage can easily be rectified by continuing production of the Tejas Mk1 which is anyday better than the MiG-21 Bison. And I read somewhere on BRF that the Mk1 can be converted into a Mk1A. So let HAL churn out Mk1s (beyond the current 40 aircraft order if Mk1A is not ready), continue development of Mk1A and then switch over to Mk1A production when it is ready and covert the existing Mk1s to Mk1As. And when Mk2 is ready, commence production of that and the IAF can operate both Mk1As and Mk2s.

And to quote srai, let the Tejas be at the lower end of the spectrum which will be the mass produced fighter. Now that senior Air Marshals - led by Vice Chief, Air Marshal S B Deo - have to come back to the Defence Minister (as per the article above in this page of the thread) with possible solutions...I hope Tejas production (with confirmed orders) is on the cards.

So by 2032, if Tejas takes off (figuratively speaking), the IAF Orbat could be like;

- 15 Su-30MKI Squadrons - 272 aircraft (to be replaced with FGFA)
- 10 Tejas Mk1A/Mk2 Squadrons - 180 aircraft
- 2 Rafale Squadrons - 36 aircraft
- 3 upgraded MiG-29 Squadrons - 54 aircraft (to be replaced with AMCA)
- 2.5 upgraded Mirage 2000 Squadrons - 45 aircraft (to be replaced with AMCA)
- 6 Jaguar Squadrons - 108 aircraft (to be replaced with AMCA)

The above comes to 38.5 squadrons. Order another 36 Rafales and one comes pretty close to the 42 squadron number. How can and why should another SE fighter fit in the above mix is puzzling. By the 2040s and beyond, the IAF should be aiming for a fleet that is largely Indian by design and manufacture. Truly Make in India

[brar_w]

Why does that matter? It's not like the SE Fighter program cost will be only for the aircraft. There will be a whole lot more associated with that program as well. And that program cost is not going to be cheap.

Apples and oranges since different elements influence cost in different ways. A logistical agreement and domestic support for a very small ME customer, without any significant aerospace industry or support infrastructure may look a lot different than something comparable elsewhere. Similarly, there are fixed overhead costs that don't necessarily scale with the order size - hence they impact small orders much more than larger ones. The same applies to the Gripen. Same with training and the amount of contractor and host-nation "lift" that is required to support the FMS customer. ME nations are known to seek years of US service and contractor support rather than take over a lot of these tasks themselves which the IAF with many times the experience and support infra is likely to do itself.

And that program cost is not going to be cheap.

Depends upon what is demanded (the final RFP is not out yet). Based on the MRCA analysis, the MOD/IAF would certainly have a pretty good idea on how "different" the F-16, or Gripen cost would be to the Rafale and the Typhoon. Since then, both the advanced F-16, and the Gripen-E have matured to beyond concepts with both flying with the former having an upgrade backlog that exceeds 400 aircraft with new built orders on the horizon. The "V" upgrade program will likely push to between 600-800 by the time Lockheed is done with it. I don't pretend to know how different the costing would be but I think the MOD/IAFs interest in the two smallest MRCA contenders for the SEF acquisition seems to hint towards there being a fairly significant cost difference b/w them and a Rafale acquisition via MII. I don't agree with the decision but this is how I see it.

[Rakesh]

If the conference was about the SE contract, I would appreciate if someone would post a link...

https://twitter.com/saurabhjoshi/status ... 4641989639 --> Admiral Arun Prakash thanks the Lord that there is no gold braid on Ashley Tellis' blue suit, having spread such doom and gloom

[Rakesh]

Cross Post from the Rafale thread...

Rafale production to start at Nagpur plant from January 2018, says CEO Rajesh Dhingra
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busine ... 24827.html

DDM (Desi Dork Media) and Misleading title, but do check the video.

[Philip]

The SE req. is becos of the LCA quagmire.From all available info,it is below min. IAF parameters ,expected only with the MK-2.Added to the one-for-one MIG replacements,sev. hundreds,around 400+ fighters,we need to raise the sqd. strength and numbers to 45,some even say and I agree to even 50-60 sqds. given the new two-front threat.By MOD/IAF calculations,even an enhanced LCA prod. can't meet these future req. figs.

In addition,the dev. of MK-2 with a new engine must include heavy redesign and again unless there is an improvement in its internal e engineering,the weight issues may not be satisfactorily resolved.This explains the SE req.for a proven light fighter that can be acquired as cheaply as poss for the "make in India" objective.The Rafale is just too expensive and will cost around twice that of an SE., which may also bring with it suitable tech for perfecting the LCA.There could be AESA radar
commonality,eng. components,etc., getting two birds with one deal.

[Rakesh]

Saab plans Gripen ecosystem in India
http://www.janes.com/article/75370/saab ... m-in-india

To support its localised production proposal, Saab said the summit brought together international Gripen partners – including Honeywell, Leonardo, Harris, and Cobham – and more than 100 Indian suppliers that “Saab and Adani believe can add value to the offering for India."

^^^This is why Gripen is a BAD idea! This is the United Nations --> Honeywell & Harris are American, Leonardo is Italian and Cobham is British. Piss off any one of the above countries and Gripen screwdrivergiri will come to a full stop. The solution is staring at the IAF in the face. Increase production of Tejas Mk1 beyond the current order of 40 aircraft, continue development of Tejas Mk1A and Tejas Mk2 and order an additional 36 Rafales.

[srai]

^^^

More likely India will end up blacklisting Gripen's international partners one-by-one

[Karan M]

Smart money is on the Gripen E.

Politics
Trump's H1B stuff, blow hot and cold on TSP, aggressively pushing India on deals wont go down well with Delhi/Modi led GOI. The aggressive posturing about "you owe us deals", ditto. US will be placated with UAVs, P-8Is, C-130Js and a C-17 or wutever.

IAF
IAF will never take a F-16. Its old kinematics wise, and IAFs dogfight puritans will point out it cannot be upgraded further beyond a point. TSPAF having them for so long adds further problems, and IAF will also state that industrial access is limited & black boxes will remain in Khan hands

Local partner
Tata firms have long been DRDO/MOD partners but their heads have not exactly won plaudits in the hidebound Indian establishment read MOD by speaking up repeatedly in Indian press against MOD rules and DPSUs. Add to it Shri Tata's penchant for speaking about politically charged topics. DRDO will continue actively working with Tata group firms, but I suspect Tata groups ability to influence MOD is limited.

Adani (run silent run deep), Gripen team (we will offer you everything saar, down to Queen of Sweden's bathrobe) have a deal to lose. They are set for victory.

[Karan M]

If Gripen E is what India is set up for, and it increasingly appears the case with IAF tilted firmly towards it (all public statements to the contrary apart), then I hope MOD ensures SAAB is on board to the max viz AMCA and ensures we get proper TOT in that sense. Fat chance any Leonardo product will have its UMS AESA chips assembled in India. That is all bunk. What can help us however, is SAAB providing valuable consultancy in development & testing to speed up AMCA, given its new configuration (not a proven LCA one) and given IAF/DRDO will have a penchant for picking the fanciest avionics architecture and what not for the AMCA to keep up with the Joneses.

That is all one can hope for, with SE MII MRCA..

[Karan M]

The Gripen E will take till 2022-25 (optimistically) to field some of its capabilities..that's around when its AESA radar will be available with all its gee whiz features ready. IIRC the Brazilians were told that the Raven would take several years. It can't win any war against PRC for us, no way for it to actually take on a S-3XX class system without being loaded to the gills with NSM type missiles (and then it will be as agile as a truck). Sweden does not have the resources to develop an anti-S3XX class integrated effort either. Against a J-20, the JAS-39 is inferior, period, its a reduced RCS light fighter against a heavy LO fighter. Avionics advantages won't swing it. Neither will a Meteor class type.
What we are buying is basically an indevelopment 4 Gen + light fighter. A follow on to the Mirage 2000 so to speak. What the Tejas could have been.

The F-16 will be a far better, off the shelf bomb truck. But its updates will all be in Unkil Sams hands and forget about any AMCA or any TOT of any kind.

Both fighters are not going to give the IAF a decisive edge in the future. Against PLAAF that is. Against TSPAF, they are overkill. So, still struggling to see why exactly MOD did not just cancel this entire shindig, buy a couple more squadrons of Rafales and spend the rest of the money on EW, PGMs, Su-30 upgrades (big fighters, big reach), AARs & build up some capex for a F-35 Off the Shelf purchase, which at least might get us within striking range of a S-3xx class complex.

[Karan M]

Anyhow the MOD reaction to all this seems to be:

IAF committee. HAL committee. Vardhaman committee. The MRCA committee. The SE MII committee.



So who knows.. Tejas might still be inducted.

[Philip]

Exactly what Adm. Arun Prakash wrote about."Lazy bureaucrats and scientists with no accountability..." This is how they prevented a DG to be appinted to head the ADA.Result? Tejas in its "as is,where is " condition,necessitating yet another round of excruciating evaluation,selection,negotiation,etc.,etc.by which time even if the Gripen is chosen it would be obsolete!

The IAF by then would've sequestered to meet the shortfall in aircraft, civil airliners armed with PGMs,going back to "bomber" tactics of past wars with Pak using AN-12s,would be interested only in a 5th/6th gen stealth bird.And the delighted babus and boffins who love nothing better than permanent employment on projects without a timeline,will celebrate! I predict that come 2025 ,we will still be using MIG-21s which would've been mothballed by some prudent farsighted IAF AM,as "war reserves".A team of IAF officers would've scoured the antique shops of Eastern Europe and the MIG scrapyard hunting for spares.Then miraculously HAL would remember (just like the OFB did with the Bofors gun/Dhanush) that it did at one time in the glorious past,actually manufacture the MIG-21 with complete sets of drawing from the Soviets ,which were filed in a derelict godown as per govt. orders.These plans survived spiders,termites and general decay because the paper was made in Russia,where things were meant to last for decades. Armed with these plans,HAL proudly surprise the nation one fine day by unveiling their made in India MIG-21 ,so basic and reliable that its cost were s5taggeringly low when compared with the friang 5th/6th gen fighters on offer from firang snake-oil salesmen.100 MIG21 replicas were available for just one 6th-gen
fighter.of which the IAF could afford only 10,and the flying of which were being fought over by pot-bellied over-age air marshals ,younger pilots allowed to only operate the simulators!

Padma awards galore would be showered down upon the intrepid boffins and babus from the MOD downward to HAL.Unable to deal with these non-BVR equipped fighters,our enemies trained in the latest tactics of modern 21st century digital air warfare would stand no chance at all with an enemy (IAF) using tactics like dogfighting long forgotten and using valve set radars which couldn't be jammed. Enemy stealth birds would also be thoroughly confused as their AESA+++ radars would show dozens of enemy aircraft attacking them.They would not know which aircraft to launch their piddly little number of AAMs nesting in their internal bays ,and would be swiftly shot down by old-fashioned munitions called "bullets".These "bullets" are not a number of concise points on topics that one sees regularly doled out at conferences by boring speakers.

HAL would then announce that it was going to build a futuristic fighter after MIG-21 production ended which would be called the HF-42 (42 being the yr. it would arrive in).The chaiwallah infomed me that reputed clairvoants were being sourced for the project in order to communicate with a famous designer one Dr.Kurt Tank for his advice!

[Rakesh]

An interesting article and if Sanjay visits BRF, I have some questions to ask him.

The Indian Air Force's Declining Squadron Strength – Options and Challenges
https://idsa.in/issuebrief/the-indian-a ... raj_031117

Yet, despite the claims of the respective companies, establishing production lines and delivering aircraft will invariably take some time, making quick availability of aircraft unlikely. In this regard, for twin-engine aircraft, one must ask whether an additional procurement of Rafales would not meet the requirement without the bureaucratic obstacles of a fresh round of trials.

The second step that needs to be taken is to forego the selection of a new twin-engine fighter under a “Make in India” initiative. The selection of the Rafale should stand and, subject to the price and technology transfer package being satisfactory, the induction of additional Rafale aircraft beyond the existing 36 should be considered as a priority. A separate twin-engine project, unless there are severe problems with the Rafale, is a time-consuming luxury with little benefit to India.

Finally, the Government of India through the Ministry of Defence and the IAF needs to take steps towards initiating the procurement of a single-engine type through the Strategic Partnership route. Nearly a year has elapsed since the project was announced by the then Defence Minister without any tangible progress being made. The process has to be started and completed in a time-bound manner so that the IAF can reap the benefits of this programme.

^^^ This will be the F-35.

[Philip]

One can clearly see who is going to "reap the benefits! Not Mother India.This "Rafale at any cost","Rafale or bust",(not a time consuming luxury at $200M a pop?),
plus awarding the SE. to a "strategic partner",no need of a contest, will saddle us with 2 firang fighters at hideous cost and the burial of the Indian indigenous military aircraft industry.The SE (baby) elephant in the room,the LCA.

[Rakesh]

SAAB Chairman Marcus Wallenberg holds talks with govt on setting up aircraft plant
http://www.livemint.com/Industry/fOvbxF ... n-set.html

Swedish firm Saab AB’s chairman Marcus Wallenberg met Indian government officials this week to explore the possibility of expanding aerospace collaboration, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Wallenberg met science and technology minister Y.S. Chowdary and Andhra Pradesh officials earlier this week, along with a delegation of Swedish officials, the person mentioned above said, declining to be named. The talks included leveraging Sweden’s strengths in high technology areas such as aerospace, as also food processing, in Andhra Pradesh, said a second person aware of the matter who also did not wish to be named.

The possibility of setting up a light aircraft manufacturing facility was discussed at the meeting, the first person cited above said. Aerospace manufacturing has seen steady growth in Hyderabad in the past few years with the Tata group making parts for Boeing and Lockheed Martin, among others, on the city’s outskirts, besides dozens of other small and medium enterprises related to the sector that are operating in and around the city. It was not clear how far the talks have reached. Most firms typically win orders from the Indian armed forces and source parts from India as part of the outsourcing mandate given by the government.

Science and technology minister Chowdary confirmed the meeting but declined to “get into details”. Saab is one of the two firms in the race for India’s next multi-billion-dollar fighter jet order. The company has said it hopes to make Gripen fighter jets in India if it wins an Indian Air Force contract also being sought by a Tata group-Lockheed Martin combine. “As a part of our interest in Make in India, we are having discussions with a large number of stakeholders for the proposed single engine fighter aircraft programme. The final location of such a facility would be on the basis of requirements of the government, our global and Indian partners and the IAF,” Saab India chairman Jan Widerström in said in an email statement on Friday

[Rakesh]

BIG INTERVIEW: Indian Jet Contest All Set, F-16 Fights ‘Sunset’ Status
https://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/11 ... tatus.html



It’s fighter contracting season in India! Again.

In these times, that sentence would normally qualify to be followed by a slow, long exhalation of breath. A sense of foreboding that now imbues virtually every ambitious armament contracting effort that India embarks on. But there’s work at hand, so let’s get right to it. The ‘kick-off’ to India’s next big effort to build and acquire fighter aircraft — the high profile single engine fighter (SEF) contest — is expected any day now in the form of a Request for Information (RFI) to America’s Lockheed Martin and Sweden’s Saab. With it, the next big international battle for an elusive Indian fighter airplane contract begins. It will aim to build 100 winning fighter planes at a brand new Indian production facility co-owned by a foreign contractor and their Indian partner — in this case, either Tata or Adani.

The imminent face-off between the F-16 Block 70 and Gripen E has already seen a techno-industrial collision here on Livefist. And while the legendarily doomed erstwhile M-MRCA contest has ensured that Indian fighter contracting will justifiably have a reputation that precedes itself for decades to come, the auspices of Prime Minister Modi’s Make In India paradigm and the MoD’s ambitiously difficult Strategic Partnership model ensures that the contest in front of us could be an even more ferocious, complicated and bedeviling one than before.

The M-MRCA contest, which intended to bring in 126 fighters for the Indian Air Force with over a hundred of them built in India, simply crashed and burned — the resultant deal for just 36 Rafales a limitless reminder of a process that flew, Icarus-like, too close to the sun. Boeing India chief Pratyush Kumar famously called it a “beauty contest on specs”. But that was then. And this is now. And even at a time when the Indian Air Force chief has brandished his spreadsheet to calm his service’s marked predilection for ‘qualitative requirements’ (which largely lead to contracting processes and few actual contracts), the single engine fighter contest is seen as achievable and necessary, both from an industrial as well as capability standpoint.

The weeks ahead promise to afford us sumptuous opportunity to dissect the difficulties of such an elaborate campaign to locally build foreign fighters. For the moment, therefore, as the single engine contest gets all set to begin, we decided to put questions to the competitors, starting with the giant in the proceedings. What you’re about to watch, therefore, is LockheedMartin’s most comprehensive interview in India to date, where the company’s two top executives leading the international F-16 for India campaign speak at length to Livefist’s Shiv Aroor, taking questions that included our own as well as questions we invited from our readers and followers on social media.

Questions include perceptions of the F-16 as a sunset platform at the end of its work life, how much Indian kit would really go into an Indian F-16, whether Indian industry would seriously benefit, whether LockheedMartin’s outlook for the platform is excessively rosy, the inescapable concern over precisely what will really be shared in an all-Indian production line, the tricky issue of how Pakistan would plug into an India-only F-16 ecosystem and whether the F-16 is an imperative path to the F-35 in the future.

[Philip]

We'll let you buy the antique but not the newbie!

[Rakesh]

Trump, Modi to discuss defence, trade on sidelines of E. Asia summit
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 942686.ece

Billion-dollar defence deals and addressing the trade deficit will be topping US President Donald Trump’s agenda as he gears up for a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 13 on the sidelines of the East Asian Summit in Manila. The meeting is taking place at the behest of the White House even as President Trump is embarking on his Asia tour in an effort to nudge his allies to build pressure against North Korea and its nuclear arsenal. This is Trump’s first Asia trip as US President. Although Trump will be visiting China, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Hawaii, he is not coming to India, which is why he is meeting Modi separately.

However, with Modi the US President has a different agenda. Both leaders will be meeting after a span of four months. The Trump administration is believed to be upset with the “reluctance” of the Indian government in concluding the talks for buying 22 Sea Guardian drones, manufactured by General Atomics, for an estimated $2 billion for the Indian Navy, sources told BusinessLine. The deal was announced by Trump after his meeting with Modi in June at the White House. This was done in recognition of India as a ‘Major Defence Partner’ by the US government. But since then there had been no progress in the deal, which has upset the US administration. Even during the successive visits to India first by US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson the deal has not yet been concluded.

Apart from this, America is keenly watching the progress in the $25-billion single-engine fighter jet deal of the Indian Air Force. Trump is expected to aggressively push for the sale of F-16 fighter planes by Lockheed Martin for the deal, sources said. According to sources, Trump is throwing his weight behind these deals as he sees them as an option to address the $30-billion trade deficit that US has with India. The issue of trade deficit turned out to be a “significant issue” during the recently concluded US-India Trade Policy Forum that was held between US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu. Both leaders will also be discussing the upcoming Global Entrepreneurship Summit (GES) to be held from November 28-30, which will be attended by the US President’s daughter Ivanka Trump.

[srai]

^^^
Files aren't going to move with the Indian elections looming in 2019. It is more likely Trump will be out of power by the time India goes through its 11-step motion

[Rakesh]

Oh for sure. The irony is President Trump will apply his pressure and Prime Minister Modi will nod. But the Prime Minister knows, that the ones who calls the shots are the Babus at the MoD. Go through all 11 steps. Go MoD Go!

[Philip]

I have a strong feeling that the SE decision will be made before the next gen. elections.

[srai]

I have a strong feeling that the SE decision will be made before the next gen. elections.

... you mean in the next 12-months they will make a SE decision when they haven't even issued the RFI/RFP to begin the official process?

[Philip]

It appears to be the no.1 priority decision to be made asap of all def. deals.If the GOI does not take a decision come 2019 election time,it will be a mockery of the "more governance,less govt." election promise last time round. The pressure is also mounting not only from the IAF but the firang rivals.Lockheed have tied up with Tatas and SAAB with Adani.Don't also rule out the poss. of a G-to-G deal also happening.Easy to justify for both birds.F-16,as a strat. partner of the US,cementing the relationship as the US desp. wants. Gripen selected as being a more modern fighter and the F-16 also used by Pak.

Why the French are also desperate for more Rafale orders as once this $10B+ deal is sealed,there won'e be much moolah left for Rafales at such prices,twice that of an SE fighter. Plus pressure from Russia too on the FGFA deal.Slow LCA dev.prod. is an understandable reason why the SE must be fast-tracked,as even with the LCA there's scope for at least 300-400 SE/LCAs,enough to keep both HAL and the firang winner happy.The French "Macaroon" is coming post haste in Dec. to try and persuade Modi to order more Rafales just as he did when he was in Paris.The 3 vultures are circling...

[JayS]

Trump, Modi to discuss defence, trade on sidelines of E. Asia summit
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 942686.ece

Apart from this, America is keenly watching the progress in the $25-billion single-engine fighter jet deal of the Indian Air Force.

[srai]

It appears to be the no.1 priority decision to be made asap of all def. deals.If the GOI does not take a decision come 2019 election time,it will be a mockery of the "more governance,less govt." election promise last time round. The pressure is also mounting not only from the IAF but the firang rivals.Lockheed have tied up with Tatas and SAAB with Adani.Don't also rule out the poss. of a G-to-G deal also happening.Easy to justify for both birds.F-16,as a strat. partner of the US,cementing the relationship as the US desp. wants. Gripen selected as being a more modern fighter and the F-16 also used by Pak.

Why the French are also desperate for more Rafale orders as once this $10B+ deal is sealed,there won'e be much moolah left for Rafales at such prices,twice that of an SE fighter. Plus pressure from Russia too on the FGFA deal.Slow LCA dev.prod. is an understandable reason why the SE must be fast-tracked,as even with the LCA there's scope for at least 300-400 SE/LCAs,enough to keep both HAL and the firang winner happy.The French "Macaroon" is coming post haste in Dec. to try and persuade Modi to order more Rafales just as he did when he was in Paris.The 3 vultures are circling...

Weren't the same things being said the last time around in the MMRCA? In India, nothing happens quick. The other issue, not enough money around. To the general public, importing new foreign fighters is not even a priority when it comes to winning their votes.

[Will]

Well if we buy the antique that the F-16 is then we deserve all that we get. Having said that I have full faith in our babus to drag this well into the next decade

Why don't they just buy a cpl of sqns of F-35's off the shelf if they want to keep uncle sam happy and just ramp up LCA production.

[Philip]

F-35 not yet battle-worthy to full capability,read recent posts on the same.Secondly,it will be a nightmare negotiating the secrecy/IP/ inspection clauses as even bumchum the UK got shafted over JSF secrets despite being an investor in the progr.It has also not been offered to us only the two antiques F-16 & F-18.Secondly JSF deliveries first to bumchums and second-class allies with diff. stds. of capability depending upon the amt. invested.Easy to do as it is so intensely software driven.India will in all likelihood get the "cattle class " version for the price of a "Palace on Wheels tkt.!