VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 29 Nov 2017 01:31

Karan,
After paying boat loads of dollars to our Russians benefactors for last 25 years the foreign component for MKI must have come down to reasonably low levels, On the other hand Rafael is 100% cash buy in dollars.

On the flip side, MKI didn't create any significant export or R&D capabilities for India but Rafael would bring know how for DRDO (most probably Kaveri co-development) as offset and also create more than 3 billion euro worth of export through offset in aviation industry.

Austin,
You brought up the dollar number converted from Rupee numbers given by DM and when I corrected you, you came back and wrote them again in big red bold.

Your number were Rs 475 corer = ~$60M that translate to currency conversion rate of- $1 = Rs 79.18

Indian Rupee have never traded at Rs 79.18 to dollar. So tell me why would you choose that conversion rate? The answer is obvious - you been inflicted by Philopsestip virus and need to see a proper hakim.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 29 Nov 2017 03:52

Katare wrote:Karan,
After paying boat loads of dollars to our Russians benefactors for last 25 years the foreign component for MKI must have come down to reasonably low levels, On the other hand Rafael is 100% cash buy in dollars.

Yes, exactly, which is why the argument will always be lopsided in favor of the Su-30 MKI in terms of cost comparisons even bringing in the Su-30 Upgrade program, because after all most of the basic aircraft is having value added in India, apart from raw materials and some subsystems. Even ROH is in India now & over time, more consumables and indigenization will occur because the agreement stipulates that while we can't build new airframes from the indigenized parts above and beyond the original contract, we can use them for spares replenishment in built Flankers.

On the flip side, MKI didn't create any significant export or R&D capabilities for India but Rafael would bring know how for DRDO (most probably Kaveri co-development) as offset and also create more than 3 billion euro worth of export through offset in aviation industry.
.

Yes, but that is what time will tell. Over time, I have become very skeptical about all these claims of technology transfer via offsets and how we will be magically transformed. Each time I read some article by some Matheswaran type gentleman who claims Rafale offsets + TOT will do this, that.. my skepticism only increases.

I think the bigger argument to make towards Rafale is capability versus cost, because the latter Rafale can never win against Su-30. Its more expensive in pure import dollar terms, and with indigenization of the supply chain, it will remain so. I doubt that even with reduced spares burn, better lifecycle usage, higher claimed reliability of items etc, even then it can ever remotely match a Su-30 in overall costs, even with fuel costs etc factored in.

How it is ahead of the Su-30 is its capability today: A reduced RCS platform, with sensor fusion + AESA radar + integrated EW suite + state of the art air to air weaponry (Meteor, IR Mica) + some useful long range capabilities.

Our Su-30s will hopefully get a proper EW suite in 2019 to replace the heavy Russian ones. Their A2A Armament awaits Astra, but Meteor class missile is nowhere available & a LRAAM will be useful for mostly heavier targets. Su-30 upgrade is still work-in-progress. Bars is likely equivalent to the smaller Rafale AESA in several "raw" parameters (deliberately avoiding which and what) but the Rafale AESA hardware will be far more reliable, and likely its A2G modes also much more accurate and wide ranging. Su-30 upgrade will bring sensor fusion but its ways off & overall, the Rafale is a very useful silver bullet force.

I think that's the true value of the aircraft, that with 50 odd Mirage 2000s interoperable (hopefully the IAF put some datalink between the two fleets and not just wait for the SDR/ODL) with 36 Rafales and all 80+ aircraft fully multirole & with proper sensor+survivability+ integrated weapons fits, we have a proper silver bullet force which IAF can rely on for the most complex missions.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Nov 2017 06:57

Karan M wrote:
Katare wrote:Karan,
After paying boat loads of dollars to our Russians benefactors for last 25 years the foreign component for MKI must have come down to reasonably low levels, On the other hand Rafael is 100% cash buy in dollars.
Yes, exactly, which is why the argument will always be lopsided in favor of the Su-30 MKI in terms of cost comparisons even bringing in the Su-30 Upgrade program, because after all most of the basic aircraft is having value added in India, apart from raw materials and some subsystems. Even ROH is in India now & over time, more consumables and indigenization will occur because the agreement stipulates that while we can't build new airframes from the indigenized parts above and beyond the original contract, we can use them for spares replenishment in built Flankers..

but what would happen to the upfront costs of the French bird once you get rights for so much indigenous content. Iirc the original deal required all this but the price went close to 30 billion usd

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Nov 2017 07:02

Katare wrote:Karan,
After paying boat loads of dollars to our Russians benefactors for last 25 years the foreign component for MKI must have come down to reasonably low levels, On the other hand Rafael is 100% cash buy in dollars.

On the flip side, MKI didn't create any significant export or R&D capabilities for India but Rafael would bring know how for DRDO (most probably Kaveri co-development) as offset and also create more than 3 billion euro worth of export through offset in aviation industry.

Austin,
You brought up the dollar number converted from Rupee numbers given by DM and when I corrected you, you came back and wrote them again in big red bold.

Your number were Rs 475 corer = ~$60M that translate to currency conversion rate of- $1 = Rs 79.18

Indian Rupee have never traded at Rs 79.18 to dollar. So tell me why would you choose that conversion rate? The answer is obvious - you been inflicted by Philopsestip virus and need to see a proper hakim.

All the mathemagic in the world won't change the fact that in the 90s India choose the extenuating route of the MKI because it couldn't even afford the Mirage 2000, which was the original preference. Let alone any Rafale shafale. According to GOI calculations even the Mirage 2000 is more expensive. ...go figure.

viveks · Post by **viveks** » 29 Nov 2017 07:37

UAE just signed up a contract to upgrade their Mirage 2000 - 9 ultra modern aircraft with the french. Wonder what is the latest bag of tricks unfolding for this very capable single engine aircraft.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Nov 2017 08:07

^interesting for sure. My guess would be an aesa and meteor. The big crutch of course remains the engine

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 29 Nov 2017 11:14

viveks wrote:UAE just signed up a contract to upgrade their Mirage 2000 - 9 ultra modern aircraft with the french. Wonder what is the latest bag of tricks unfolding for this very capable single engine aircraft.

Remember Thales offering an AESA radar for LCA, it has probably been developed with Mirage upgrades in mind.

viveks · Post by **viveks** » 29 Nov 2017 16:54

Maybe introduce super cruise into the Mirage...who knows.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 29 Nov 2017 23:58

Cain Marko wrote:but what would happen to the upfront costs of the French bird once you get rights for so much indigenous content. Iirc the original deal required all this but the price went close to 30 billion usd

This will never happen IMHO.
The DPP at the time of the MMRCA mandated 65% indigenous content. I had posted the excerpt on BRF itself. And 50% offset.
The 65% itself ended up creating such a huge cost escalation & the French showed a middle finger to our easy peasy dreams of RCS tech etc.

I sincerely doubt we can have any huge TOT for Rafale especially when it is the bed rock of the French aeroweapons industrial ecosystem and also linked to the French strategic deterrent. They really wont transfer their crown jewels and the MMRCA was a masterpiece of self-delusion and bad behavior (vendor included) which we gave into, because of operational needs.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 30 Nov 2017 04:40

Rakesh wrote:IR, it makes perfect sense to go in for more Rafale squadrons (at least two more). Silence the Congress criticism or otherwise let them come up with hard evidence that the BJP Govt actually did something wrong. All evidence so far is only heresay and theories.

On another note - I could be wrong - but I think this Rafale criticism is coming from the SEF lobby. The Congress is only a mouthpiece. Kill the Rafale deal and give further weight for a SE fighter. Lot of rona-dhona on BRF when downselect happened on April 27, 2011 in the first MMRCA downselect.

I am very confident that this Rafale deal criticism is instigated by the SEF lobby and most likely by US sources. Wikileaks has shown just how actively the GOTUS and its agencies get involved in influencing opinion by directly approaching politicians or media to plant reports and stories. They now feel that the biggest threat to the F-16 Block 70 deal and to a possible Super Hornet deal for the IN comes from a follow-on order for more Rafales for the IAF or a deal to manufacture Rafales in India.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Nov 2017 04:57

The vultures are indeed circling.The firang OEM aerial war has begun.We are seeing perhaps the tip of the tip of the ' berg.The GOI's most difficult task is how to keep the goal of self sufficiency alive (LCA) by still buying one of the foreign birds.With 3 Indian pvt. sector giants in the field too allied with firang OEMs the pressure must be intense.
Here the R co.are in pole position simply becos Rafales are in the pipeline and it will be a straightforward case of "more of the same." Some did expect this to happen after the first 36 was sealed.

periaswamy · Post by **periaswamy** » 30 Nov 2017 21:48

Ajai Shukla "raises questions" on Rafale

Ajai Shukla has always struck me as an slimy creep working for the interests of arms dealers, mostly because his angles on defence news is hardly that of someone looking out for the interests of the armed forces. Apparently, he has "questions" now. So what is his interest in "bringing in another vendor", at the cost of the IAF's effectiveness, I wonder. His second question is "why didn't the mudi do foot-dragging before rafale" and third question is "did UPA do foot dragging"...WTF is wrong with this guy?

First, did the PM follow due procedure in announcing, alongside then French president François Hollande, that France would supply 36 fully-built Rafales? Or was this Modi’s decision alone?

Second, rather than serving the deal on a platter to a single vendor -- French firm Dassault -- could the PM have brought in another vendor, creating a competitive environment for price discovery and cost negotiation?

Third, was the UPA guilty of a full decade of foot-dragging between 2004 and 2014 on the eventually-aborted procurement of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft, leading to such a fighter shortage in the IAF that an emergency purchase of 36 Rafales became essential?

Fourth, does the per-fighter cost in the contract work out lower than what France had offered in its MMRCA bid, which was a key condition of the purchase?

viveks · Post by **viveks** » 01 Dec 2017 01:10

Rightly put. I think he is just doing his job of emanating some sort of itch in his butt. I really think he would want both of his man titties squeezed with the right strength and direction to get a great comforting sensation to keep his mouth shut.

He reminds me of some government folks who want to hear the right things coming out of the mouth in order for them to do their job properly something which they take so much in doing.

Or may that he is working for congress party.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Dec 2017 12:41

Just before Rafale deal, govt passed over option to buy €59 mln/unit cheaper Eurofighter

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 01 Dec 2017 12:45

viveks wrote:UAE just signed up a contract to upgrade their Mirage 2000 - 9 ultra modern aircraft with the french. Wonder what is the latest bag of tricks unfolding for this very capable single engine aircraft.

Here are the details

UAE Mirage-2000-9 upgrade to include RDY-3 radar

During Dubai Airshow 2017, held from November 12-16, Thales and the UAE armed forces announced their intention to sign a contract to modernize the UAE Air Force’s Dassault Mirage 2000-9 fighter jets. Under the potential contract, Thales would upgrade the Mirages’ complete electronics package, including mission computers; fire control radars; electronic warfare suites; optronics systems; communications, navigation, and identification systems; cockpit displays; and helmet-mounted displays.

While no particular equipment was specified in the announcement, Forecast International believes with reasonable certainty that the radar and optronics involved will be the RDY-3 fire control radar and the new TALIOS electro-optical targeting pod, both manufactured by Thales.

The RDY-3 radar is the latest iteration of the RDM/RDY series of radars that have equipped Mirage fighters throughout their life. Notably selected by the Indian Air Force for its Mirage 2000 upgrade program, the X-band radar has been popular in recent Mirage upgrades. It represents the technological pinnacle of Thales’ current radar offerings for the Mirage.

While the RDY-3 has been in operation for several years, the TALIOS targeting pod is still in its developmental phase. However, TALIOS development is nearing completion and the pod will soon enter production.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 01 Dec 2017 13:15

Austin wrote:Just before Rafale deal, govt passed over option to buy €59 mln/unit cheaper Eurofighter

Well, by that time, the MRCA deal was scrapped anyway. The GoI went with the IAF's selection, which was the Rafale. Whether the Typhoon would have been cheaper had a 36 unit order been pursued or not, is disputable, especially looking at the cost of the orders for Kuwait. 28 Typhoons cost Kuwait $9.062 billion, a LOT costlier than the 36 Rafales for the IAF.

The only thing that is going to happen with all these negative reports targeting a perfectly normal Govt. to Govt. deal is to make the GoI think 100 times before signing any further import deals, which may work wonders for some indigenous programs but may also hurt the armed forces in some other cases.

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Dec 2017 17:18

Kartik wrote:
Austin wrote:Just before Rafale deal, govt passed over option to buy €59 mln/unit cheaper Eurofighter
Well, by that time, the MRCA deal was scrapped anyway. The GoI went with the IAF's selection, which was the Rafale. Whether the Typhoon would have been cheaper had a 36 unit order been pursued or not, is disputable, especially looking at the cost of the orders for Kuwait. 28 Typhoons cost Kuwait $9.062 billion, a LOT costlier than the 36 Rafales for the IAF.

The only thing that is going to happen with all these negative reports targeting a perfectly normal Govt. to Govt. deal is to make the GoI think 100 times before signing any further import deals, which may work wonders for some indigenous programs but may also hurt the armed forces in some other cases.

MMRCA L1 value, which included a whole bunch of variables, was open to subjective interpretation. The French manipulated it to be L1. The mistake of the GoI was to only negotiate with the L1. Both L1 and L2 should have participated in the final negotiation where the GoI could have played them against each other to get the best value.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 01 Dec 2017 17:33

srai wrote:
Kartik wrote:
Well, by that time, the MRCA deal was scrapped anyway. The GoI went with the IAF's selection, which was the Rafale. Whether the Typhoon would have been cheaper had a 36 unit order been pursued or not, is disputable, especially looking at the cost of the orders for Kuwait. 28 Typhoons cost Kuwait $9.062 billion, a LOT costlier than the 36 Rafales for the IAF.

The only thing that is going to happen with all these negative reports targeting a perfectly normal Govt. to Govt. deal is to make the GoI think 100 times before signing any further import deals, which may work wonders for some indigenous programs but may also hurt the armed forces in some other cases.
MMRCA L1 value, which included a whole bunch of variables, was open to subjective interpretation. The French manipulated it to be L1. The mistake of the GoI was to only negotiate with the L1. Both L1 and L2 should have participated in the final negotiation where the GoI could have played them against each other to get the best value.

The article looks like a motivated one. Its comparing price of EF2k with a packaged defined in MMRCA to a package for Rafale in G2G deal. That's not apples to apples comparison. I don't believe EF would have been significantly cheaper when things like additional weapons, India specific changes included in the package. Had it been the case, they could have undercut Dassault in the first round itself.

There seems to be quite a coordinated propaganda campaign being run in India MSM right now. Who and why its being done is anyone's guess.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 01 Dec 2017 17:57

Kartik wrote:Here are the details

UAE Mirage-2000-9 upgrade to include RDY-3 radar

I'd treat that article with some scepticism Kartik. The RDY-3 is a scaled down RDY-2 meant for the Mirage F1 but also marketed for Mirage III/V, Kfir, Cheetah etc upgrades.

The Emirati Mirages are already equipped with the RDY-2 and given the stated cost of the upgrade, are unlikely to be receiving an AESA upgrade. The TALIOS is a definite possibility though.

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Dec 2017 18:31

JayS wrote:
srai wrote:
MMRCA L1 value, which included a whole bunch of variables, was open to subjective interpretation. The French manipulated it to be L1. The mistake of the GoI was to only negotiate with the L1. Both L1 and L2 should have participated in the final negotiation where the GoI could have played them against each other to get the best value.
The article looks like a motivated one. Its comparing price of EF2k with a packaged defined in MMRCA to a package for Rafale in G2G deal. That's not apples to apples comparison. I don't believe EF would have been significantly cheaper when things like additional weapons, India specific changes included in the package. Had it been the case, they could have undercut Dassault in the first round itself.

There seems to be quite a coordinated propaganda campaign being run in India MSM right now. Who and why its being done is anyone's guess.

Setting aside motivated part for the time being, GoI lost a second chance to make L1 and L2 compete for the reduce order of 36 units. First, they didn't do it for 126 units and then for the reduced order.

In any case, the deal is already done.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 01 Dec 2017 19:07

srai wrote:
JayS wrote:
The article looks like a motivated one. Its comparing price of EF2k with a packaged defined in MMRCA to a package for Rafale in G2G deal. That's not apples to apples comparison. I don't believe EF would have been significantly cheaper when things like additional weapons, India specific changes included in the package. Had it been the case, they could have undercut Dassault in the first round itself.

There seems to be quite a coordinated propaganda campaign being run in India MSM right now. Who and why its being done is anyone's guess.
Setting aside motivated part for the time being, GoI lost a second chance to make L1 and L2 compete for the reduce order of 36 units. First, they didn't do it for 126 units and then for the reduced order.

In any case, the deal is already done.

There was quite an effort made in 2015-16 by Germany/GB. What makes one think GOI didn't even listen to them..?

Second, when its G2G, there is no meaning to L1 and L1.

Third, the intangible strategic reasoning doesn't show up in such comparisons - namely N-delivery. French are known to be mendable on this one factor. In my opinion this was one big reason for Rafale being considered with no uncertainty in GOI/IAF's mind.

Forth, as per DPP, you cannot negotiate with L2 and L1 at the same time. IN fact the whole reason why MMRCA was scrapped, if you read Nitin Gokhale's article, was because Dassualt didn't put all costs upfront and considering the factor that HAL wanted for no of man-hours for MII 108 jets, Dassault was becoming L2 while EF would have been L1. Once their is this confusion, the tender was all set for cancellation. Because in MP's words, this was going against guidelines given by CVC. Another nail in the coffin was Dassault refused to stand by their contractual obligation of taking responsibility of MII jets, which they agreed while submitting bids, but later reneged. Dassault is as much responsible for fall out of the deal as anyone else.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 01 Dec 2017 19:22

^^^ These moves are being made to blacklist Dassault and pave way for American single & dual engine fighters.

More allegations will come.

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Dec 2017 19:44

^^^
Long live SEF MII!

Mihir · Post by **Mihir** » 01 Dec 2017 22:06

That story is BS. Why would Eurofighter offer a price that's €59 million lower than the Rafales? They've obviously excluding items that the Rafale contract contains. Like weapons, spares, sustainment, etc. etc. It's evident from Ajai Shukla's report that the planes themselves cost €138.9 million - almost the same as what EF offered. So I'm not sure why Pubby is peddling the €197 million figure.

Second, there's an established procedure to submit bids. You can't just choose to say, "Lulz plz to ignore earlier bid, here is revised bid kthxbye" after the L1 vendor has been selected. The Mod will throw it out, which is what it did.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 01 Dec 2017 22:11

Mihir, you are correct. Just lifafa articles to discredit the Rafale deal. RaGa has zero clue on any of his claims.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 01 Dec 2017 22:26

Mihir wrote: So I'm not sure why Pubby is peddling the €197 million figure.

.

well who is he working for says it all

Mihir · Post by **Mihir** » 01 Dec 2017 22:34

Funny thing is, Gupta published the Su-30 story just a few days back, and used it to argue that the Rafale deal shouldn’t be questioned on the basis of BS claims. And now Pubby comes out with this…

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 02 Dec 2017 06:40

It seems that too many vested interests working at cross-purposes. They all want the deal to be cancelled or curtailed, but in favour of THEIR "chosen one"!!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Dec 2017 06:56

It is all about the Strategic Partner

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 02 Dec 2017 08:47

Rakesh wrote:Mihir, you are correct. Just lifafa articles to discredit the Rafale deal. RaGa has zero clue on any of his claims.

Can raga even differentiate between Su 30 F16 or Rafale?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Dec 2017 09:52

Rakesh wrote:^^^ These moves are being made to blacklist Dassault and pave way for American single & dual engine fighters.

More allegations will come.

Here comes the next hit....the allegations are gathering steam and from different reporters.

India may need to walk away from Rafale to buy MMRCA
https://www.stratpost.com/india-may-nee ... buy-mmrca/

Para 73 of the Defense Procurement Procedure (DPP) says:

In certain acquisition cases, imperatives of strategic partnerships or major diplomatic, political, economic, technological or military benefits deriving from a particular procurement may be the principal factor determining the choice of a specific platform or equipment on a single vendor basis.

The bolded part sound familiar?

The above is from the DPP. That much is not lifafa or fake news.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Dec 2017 10:25

The rules for “Strategic Partners” are different. See below...

https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/9 ... 2078537728 —> Astonishing @ndtv report. If it were true @BJP4India has created a brand new model for scams: Simply insert a clause in a govt contract that no details can be revealed without court orders "in event of disagreement between parties". Crooks seldom disagree!

To which Vishnu Som responds...

https://twitter.com/vishnundtv/status/9 ... 8640786432 —> Hardly astonishing ! P-8, C-17, C-130 - In fact, ALL major deals signed with the US for years through the Foreign Military Sales route or govt to govt route have carefully framed confidentiality clauses where specific info "shall not be shared with external parties."

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Dec 2017 10:35

Time to call out the big guns. Prime Minister Modi needs to release the price details of the Rafale deal after consultations with his counterpart in France. Staying silent serves no purpose now. We cannot restart MMRCA again or even worse, go for FMS route to induct F-Solah. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Dec 2017 10:42

ArjunPandit wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Mihir, you are correct. Just lifafa articles to discredit the Rafale deal. RaGa has zero clue on any of his claims.
Can raga even differentiate between Su 30 F16 or Rafale?

The problem with dynasties is that the prince-in-waiting is surrounded by a coterie of minions who say YES (with eyes wide open) to every crazy hairbrained idea he says. He is insulated from criticism from within. No one stands up to the Prince. This is damaging to the party and even to the country (when they are in power). But now the nawab is playing with national security. Two words that are too complex for him to understand. And if he is left unchallenged, he will ruin it.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 02 Dec 2017 10:48

Rakesh wrote:Time to call out the big guns. Prime Minister Modi needs to release the price details of the Rafale deal after consultations with his counterpart in France. Staying silent serves no purpose now. We cannot restart MMRCA again or even worse, go for FMS route to induct F-Solah. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

I would be happy if this deal collapsed. Order additional su 30 and focus on the Tejas. Not waste any energy going after expensive unicorns that will not add any value to indian military aviation sector.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Dec 2017 10:52

Pratyush, it will not stop there. Cancel this deal and the net result will be an American bird - one or both of the teens.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 02 Dec 2017 10:56

Rakesh wrote:Pratyush, it will not stop there. Cancel this deal and the net result will be an American bird.

I am not so sure that 16 will be chosen. A g2g deal for the 35 can also be struck. Which will any day be better then a 20 year old Rafael or the 40 year old 16.

But that is just my wish.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 02 Dec 2017 11:02

Rakesh wrote:^^^ These moves are being made to blacklist Dassault and pave way for American single & dual engine fighters.

More allegations will come.

I think the real target is Modi, not Rafael.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Dec 2017 11:04

Agreed Pratyush. But seeing how archaic and dreadfully slow the MoD moves on acquisitions, the F-35 will take a LONG time.

- MMRCA took 16+ years.

We cannot hit the reset button now and start this process all over again. We need the 36 Rafales like yesterday. Same with the 40 Su-30MKIs announced on IAF Day and the Tejas as well.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Dec 2017 11:17

F35 means signing COMCASA, Etc etc. US poodle thy deal is F35.