Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

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Deans
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Deans »

I spent some time in Nov, visiting Sikkim (North and Nathula) and the Siliguri area.
IA is deployed well forward in all sectors of the LAC -incl with armored vehicles. Supplies have also been brought closer to the LAC, so interdicting roads in a conflict will have limited utility for China. There was road building/ widening going on at a frantic pace. Doklam was possibly the best thing to happen to us in terms of boosting our readiness and improving infrastructure along the border. I informally spoke to men from different regiments and all seemed confident about kicking PLA ass.

Even if the PLA deploys a whole division in Doklam, it will have negligible offensive potential and will find it difficult to defend against IA attacking from multiple axis.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by ArjunPandit »

Rohit Vats on twitter
1. With respect to recent reports and satellite pictures, Chinese have simply made permanent their earlier temporary infra on the plateau. But mind you - the India-China dispute was NOT about Chinese presence on Doklam. It was about road being extended+
2. from area opposite Doka La towards Jhampheri ridge. Chinese already had a track coming opposite to Doka La - they were trying to extend that to Jhampheri ridge towards south and we objected to this NEW activity. Satellite images show+
3. + show that Chinese have widened their EXISTING tracks and made new infra in places where they were ALREADY present. Plus, new troops. Same images show that they HAVE NOT made any effort to extend the road towards Jhampheri ridge - the original point of dispute. +
4. + And mind you, it is not for India to object to Chinese build-up on Doklam. That is for Bhutanese to do as area is disputed between Bhutan and China. We objected last time because change in status quo impacted us. So, is this recent development worrisome for India?+
5. + Before I answer that, let me add that some of the analysis about 'type' & 'strength' of Chinese troop presence seems as exaggeration to me. For eg - the point about presence of 1 or 2 Mechanized Units on the plateau. That would be 80-100 Infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs)+
6. + What good are IFVs in this terrain? And where is the space for their maneuver? Look at it this way - these vehicles will be in open and every inch of Doklam Plateau can & will be plastered by Indian artillery. There is no better target than a bunched armor column
7. + Coming to question about impact on India - well, it will simply make overt an otherwise covert threat. India sits favorably in terms of troop strength and terrain advantage. IMO, this troop presence is more of a show-of-force after getting drubbed by Indians earlier +
8, + And there is one more angle - for a long time, Chinese have got away with putting very few boots on ground against India because of how we treated the Chinese - 7 feet tall giants! India on the other hand had has massive troop presence along the entire border. +
9. + But because the Chinese knew that it is they who'll always have the initiative, they got away with bluster. But not any longer. They've realized NOW that Indians will not simply roll over and say yes. That is what happened in Doklam earlier. Now, they'll have to match us+
10+ with boots on the ground. Next time they do another Doklam, they'll have to come prepared to ensure they don't get caught off--guard. This raises the cost for the Chinese. And brings to forth an otherwise hidden threat.
11. + with boots on the ground. Next time they do another Doklam, they'll have to come prepared to ensure they don't get caught off--guard. This raises the cost for the Chinese. And brings to forth an otherwise hidden threat.
12. I will put out an article on this by tonight.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by pankajs »

^^
Agree with RV on all points.

With a single and highly risky entry point, no maneuvering space and no were to run or hide the Chinese formation on the plateau is like fish in a barrel.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by pankajs »

Sinche La - The entry point to the plateau from the Chinese side. Orientation South at the top i.e Chinese terrotiry at the bottom of the map. As marked on my Google Earth.
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Check the road leading up to the Sinche La pass. A cave in on one mountain side is enough to isolate the Chinese deployment on the plateau except to air supply and close all exits.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by pankajs »

Same view tilted further to give an idea of the approach terrain to the pass and the plateau.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by pankajs »

Another view of the approach to the plateau.

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Manish_P
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Manish_P »

ArjunPandit wrote:Rohit Vats on twitter
...
12. I will put out an article on this by tonight.
Really miss this poster on BRF forums..
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Philip »

Pankaj,from your excellent find/pics,it then appears that the Chinese have to crawl a long way upto the plateau from their side.Is their road building/infrastructure then meant to be able to stockpile eqpt. and have facilities for large no. of troops there on a permanent basis,given the vulnerability of ascending to the plateau?
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by pankajs »

I can't answer for the Chinese but stockpiling without space for maneuverability on top of the plateau also makes them highly vulnerable to a arty barrage.

Also a compliment of SAM/MANPADS will make air Heli based re-supply untenable. Any decent SAM positioned just back of the Indian position at Doka La will cover the entire plateau.

Doka La to Sinche La is ~ 5 km as the crow flies.
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nam
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by nam »

The article may be blowing up the situation, however we need such "red dragon on our doorstep" reports. Helps to keep our slow moving government machinery on its toes.

Just like the Swedes are preparing for an upcoming Russian invasion...
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Trikaal »

So as long as chinese do not build road, india will not interfere. Road seems to be our red line. I still feel we are being too passive. Chinese will wait for an opening. At the first sign of weakness, they will rush in and build their road. In the mean time, they are building up the rest of the infrastructure. India is well within its right to march in and dismantle all infrastructure in disputed lands. Kick the chinese out of bhutan.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by rrao »

Full-Fledged Chinese Military Complex In Doklam, Show Satellite Pics

Satellite images available in the public domain and shot in December indicate that the Chinese never stopped their infrastructure buildup in the region. Just 81 metres from an Indian post, the Chinese have constructed proper structures.
All India | Written by Vishnu Som | Updated: January 17, 2018 19:11 IST
http://www.ndtv.com
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by rrao »

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nam
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by nam »

Deans wrote:I spent some time in Nov, visiting Sikkim (North and Nathula) and the Siliguri area.
IA is deployed well forward in all sectors of the LAC -incl with armored vehicles. Supplies have also been brought closer to the LAC, so interdicting roads in a conflict will have limited utility for China. There was road building/ widening going on at a frantic pace. Doklam was possibly the best thing to happen to us in terms of boosting our readiness and improving infrastructure along the border. I informally spoke to men from different regiments and all seemed confident about kicking PLA ass.

Even if the PLA deploys a whole division in Doklam, it will have negligible offensive potential and will find it difficult to defend against IA attacking from multiple axis.
This is why like the Chinis teaching us a lesson regularly. In a decade Doklam incident may be forgotten, however it would the force that laid down the foundation of our future military power. We are gearing up to face the future superpower of the world. Also provides the investment in infra in NE, which was neglected so far. For the better we will stop comparing our power with the donkey in the west.

This is equivalent to the US-Soviet rivalry. The excuse which gave them tremendous technology and military power.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Singha »

India needs to step up and build bhutans military into a agile and formidable force. pump them up and give them/fund them whatever they want for free, including ELINT and recon assets. its not just doklam, cheen is nibbling some areas in the far north too...areas where we not nearby to help.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by pankajs »

Won't work. Not enough Bhutanese to defend its borders. It has to depend on the benevolence of its neighbors.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

Doklam latest - my take
https://youtu.be/y15iiyIbIus
Philip
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Philip »

Tx. Shiva.Great work.You've answered the big Q, why Doklam.The future annexation of Bhutan by any means.The Nepalese royal family was massacred in a conspiracy, the surviving greedy royals disgraced and the last Hindu kingdom eliminated leaving a vacuum occupied by the pro-Chinese "Communists.

The Buddhist kingdom of Bhutan is next on the list after the fall of Tibet, where the Dalai Lamas held sway many decades ago.China is usurping Buddhism globally and pretending to be its protector.With the Panchen Lama in virtual custody, a puppet, it waits patiently for the DL to pass on.If Bhutan is brought into the pro-Chinese camp by any means,applying military pressure on its borders,"Southern Tibet", Ar. Pradesh which they openly covet, will be highly vulnerable let alone cutting off the entire NEast with the increased threat to the Siliguri corridor.

China has to be stopped at the Himalays by land, in the ICS at sea, and inside its airspace by the IAF.It is using its clout financial and military muscle, to coax foreign states esp those in the Iittorals to become its proxies and complete the encirclement of India.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

Chinese overland rocket launches cause boosters to fall on houses
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index ... msg1787409
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Philip
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Philip »

Chins repeatedly warning (India) against intervening in the Maldives.A concerted JV plan to deflect intl. condemnation of the despotic regime is on with token releases of a few MPs.Attacks against the ousted former leader denying a Chin "takeaway".We're fast losing the game in the Maldives.I am very disappointed with the inaction and indecision of the NDA. Timing is the key.The moment the despot threw democracy into the sea was when we should've acted with the CJ of the SC appealing to us for help.Each day the despot and Chins are regaining their brutal grip on the situ and country.Does Mr.Modi want to go down in history as "the man who lost the Maldives"?
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

shiv wrote: So the Chinese now have a permanent presence in Doklam where they were previously only part-time visitors? Good. Let them experience the harsh winters and high altitude sickness with no hope of any low altitude evacuation for 100s of Km. That tells me where the Communist Party cadre guiding the army will be staying.
Tadaaaaaaaa! As I had said:
http://eng.mod.gov.cn/news/2018-03/21/c ... cY.twitter
Air force sends transport aircraft to Tibet to evacuate sick soldier
The 29-year-old Captain Wang Yuan is a staff officer of an air force unit under the PLA Western Theater Command. Wang's unit has been conducting field camp training since stationed in Tibet in November 2017. In late February, Wang suffered repeated fevers. On March 2, he was rushed to the PLA Tibet Military Command General Hospital. The results of medical experts consultation showed that Wang had Type I respiratory failure, pulmonary edema, loss of lung function, cerebral edema, and severely impaired heart, liver, and kidney functions caused by adenovirus infection. The hospital issued a critical condition notice on the very day.

On the next day, approved by the air force headquarters of the PLA Western Theater Command, a Y-9 transport aircraft took off at 11:32 a.m. from an airport in western Sichuan Province and arrived at Gongga Airport in Lhasa two hours later. Soon after medical workers waiting there immediately transferred Wang Yuan onto the plane, the plane took off again and flew off to Chengdu.

The Y-9 transport aircraft arrived in Chengdu at 16:54 and Wang was rushed to a military hospital for salvage.

"I can't imagine how serious his life-threatening conditions would have developed if the patient had been sent to our hospital one night later," said Chen Zhang, an expert on respiratory diseases and the doctor in charge of Wang's case at the military hospital.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Prasad »

Surprising given that even tourists are given oxygen cylinders in their hotel rooms in Lhasa. One would expect a Lhasa military hospital to have oxygen chambers at the ready, especially for a staff officer level person. What is missing in the picture I wonder.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

Prasad wrote:Surprising given that even tourists are given oxygen cylinders in their hotel rooms in Lhasa. One would expect a Lhasa military hospital to have oxygen chambers at the ready, especially for a staff officer level person. What is missing in the picture I wonder.
The most ill people will need evacuation to a place less than 3000 m because an entire ICU set up at regular pressure is needed
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

Prasad, in addition to what Shiv sir said, there would by hyperbaric chambers for sure in the hospital. As Shiv sir pointed out in his earlier post....just having equipment is not enough. Living a few winters, suffering casualties, evacuating them, loosing some, all is a learning experience and Chinese may not have properly institutionally acclimatised themselves to high altitude warfare whereas we have a lot of experience.

That said depending on their determination they can acclimitise fast. In a couple of winters we will have a problem.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Prasad »

shiv wrote:
Prasad wrote:Surprising given that even tourists are given oxygen cylinders in their hotel rooms in Lhasa. One would expect a Lhasa military hospital to have oxygen chambers at the ready, especially for a staff officer level person. What is missing in the picture I wonder.
The most ill people will need evacuation to a place less than 3000 m because an entire ICU set up at regular pressure is needed
From the timeline mentioned in the article, it looks like it was rapid. Perhaps within a week or so, he deteriorated. A good 2-3 months after moving to Tibet. Pretty sure they're all asked to take it easy first few days, if not weeks. Per tourists the effects of high altitude are very evident. Lack of sleep, lethargy, huffing-e-puffing etc since its a direct jump from near sea-level in the east to ungodly altitude.
A stark reminder of what'll happen to their frontline troops if rushed to the Indo-Tibetan border to fight :) You might not have all the men you rush ready to fight!
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

There are several issues here.

Even an acclimatized "lowlander" who stays for 6 months will be at some risk of altitude sickness. For Aksai Chin or even Doklam altitudes it may take 2 months for full acclimatization. The changes that occur in the body are reversible and once Chang returns to Guangzhou he loses his acclimatization. F

Tibet is a net negative food producer. A sudden influx of people means that food must also be brought in. The Tibetan railway is limited in its capacity to pour in troops because of its inherent issue of construction on unstable permafrost (see video). So road transport from Chengdu 2500 km away is still necessary.

I do not intend to write this as a "high hopes" post but there are some issues with the PLA too. One is the decrease in ratio of young to old people, and the increase in obesity and myopia - that reduces the "mass" that can simply be pulled into the PLA. The single child issue and separation of families may not be great for morale and a posting in 4500-5000 meter Tibet can't be a "vacation posting".

Once altitude sickness reaches the level of respiratory failure - other organs start to fail and an ICU is needed. Now you can theoretically build an airtight ICU that is pressurized - but ICUs are not isolated structures - they are part of a larger hospital organization which will have hundreds of staff and support workers - all of who will have to live in rarefied air if they build a "pressurized hospital" in Lhasa. So the correct action would be evacuation to a lower altitude (less than 10,000 feet) zone where the entire fully equipped hospital can exist.

Now fir up Google earth and put a marker on Lhasa and see how far anyone has to go (into Eastern Tibet or China to get an altitude of less than 3000 meters.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

https://twitter.com/bennedose/status/977560984561659904
Quotable quote of the year from @KesariDhwaj : Indian analysts tend to suffer from ‘7-foot China-man syndrome’ where anything & everything which the Chinese do is supposed to have deep profound wisdom behind it. Memorize it!
:rotfl:
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by disha »

shiv wrote:Chinese overland rocket launches cause boosters to fall on houses
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Please look at the above images carefully. No not for rockets or anything hi-tec. But look at the construction of the homes. It reminds me of my village in 1980s. Now a days, my village actually looks better than the above photos. Given the above, I am seriously doubting the entire Chinese GDP numbers. Or very few in China is very super-rich, based on their connection to commies. The rest are still serving the communists as slaves.

Further, the nitrous-oxide plume is going to affect that area for generations.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

Skanda wrote:https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econom ... ons?page=1
According to Indian government sources, China sent several vessels, including missile destroyers, near the Maldives, apparently in response to a Maldivian envoy's visit to Beijing on Feb. 7. Yameen has counted on China for support, including investment, which has proven controversial.

But around Feb. 22, when these ships were around 30 nautical miles from India's vessels, the Indian Navy threatened action -- a warning shot and "war drill" -- if they were to come within 20 nautical miles. The Chinese fleet retreated to the southeast, stopping in waters 276 nautical miles from the Maldivian capital of Male.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by saumitra_j »

^^^ Naval Dolam - the 7 Foot tall soldier just became a good, well behaved brother :rotfl:
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by anupmisra »

I thought Eleven Gin Peg had a large head. But it pales when compared to his alter ego, Kim Long One.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Guddu »

Its interesting that rocket man is wearing a mao suit and gin peg is wearing armani suit. :D sort of reminds me of who is the greenest and most pure ala bakistanis.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Pratyush »

XI looks constipated in all his pictures. The rocket man looks vigorous and bold.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by anupmisra »

Pratyush wrote:XI looks constipated in all his pictures. The rocket man looks vigorous and bold.
Eleven Gin Peg always looks constipated. By the way, Kim Long One reportedly never poos, either. Good company.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

:lol: :lol: hahahaha! Brilliant article that says evereything I have wanted to say and more but could not find words:

Military Power and the Allure of Technology
Lt Gen Prakash Menon

While technological innovation can be a captivating narrative for military superiority, India should not blindly buy into this optical power.

Military power derives its fundamental strength from its ability to threaten or use violence to secure political objectives. In human affairs, military power remains the ultimate determinant of conflict resolution. But nuclear weapons changed this basic assumption as the battlefield no longer offered the prospect of using violence to achieve substantial political objectives.

The battlefield instead moved to the realm of deterrence that was based on the notion that threats will keep the opponent at bay. The arena of threats has shifted from the traditional concept of battlefields to a multi-dimensional concept of a battlespace, which is imbued with a virtual character. In this new paradigm, the projection of power is more important than actual application of power. This optical power is derived from the power of the image supplanted with narratives that assures operational effectiveness. Elaborate displays of high-tech weapon systems are projected to reflect military capability. Embedded in military doctrines/concepts and adorned with eye-catching nomenclature like ‘Anti-Access Area-Denial’ and ‘Cold Start’, military power promises victory through operational virtuosity. It is a technophobic view where the political and social contexts are disregarded.

In March 2018, Russian President Vladimar Putin used an emotional speech accompanied by an animation of a cruise missile heading towards North America and claimed that Russia was developing weapons that can overcome any ballistic missile defences. Optical power is inherent in a military platform and can be exploited by high end photography and videos. Optical power serves to impress the viewer and project operational capabilities much beyond actuality. More often than not, optical power is merely a tall claim that does not stand the test of time or whose claims are often never tested in its lifetime. Platforms when accompanied by jargon like ‘stealth’ convey invincibility. Recently, the much-touted stealth capability of the J-20 aircraft of China was exposed for being phoney as the Indian Air Chief claimed that the aircraft was detectable by IAF radars. The Chinese may dispute this claim but the game of cat and mouse endures. This action-counteraction is the domain of deterrence where weapons are never used except for their power to create mirages to influence perception. The mind of opposing leaders, both civilian and military, is the battlespace.

China seems to be doing reasonably well in the above battlespace and appears to have convinced most of the world including even the USA, which in its capabilities is still not only way ahead in military power but also is the most battle-hardened. China has had no war experience to speak of, other than the 1962 Sino-Indian operations and the botched Vietnam invasion in 1979. Yet, China seems to have arrived militarily and that too incontestably! How does that happen? Because of the seduction by technology.

If technology were the main war-winning determinant, how is it that the US (the most powerful military power in the world) has lost most of the major conflicts it has taken part in after the Second World War? Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan provide ample proof that winning wars is different from winning tactical battles where the technological edge matters. Wars are fundamentally about people and their will to fight. It seems China has convinced the leadership of many countries, without fighting, that they are not only an economic power of consequence, but also that they are militarily very nearly right at the top. It would seem like Sun Tzu is alive and kicking!

But Sun Tzu’s ideas of winning without fighting has a fatal flaw. The defeated are not necessarily disarmed and they can rise again and strike back if conditions change and allow it. That is why Clausewitz advocates that it is better to impose your will preferably by extermination. China may win by use of psychological dominance, but that dominance has a shelf-life.

China has been using optical power to create false impressions about its military capability. It has spawned several of them which gullible analysts have meekly swallowed and helped propagate those impressions. Reports circulate of underground submarine pens in Hainan island that can accommodate twenty-five submarines, when only two or three is actually feasible. A newly-commissioned aircraft carrier is put on display to give the impression that China’s maritime power will soon be a match for the US. Actually, they require decades of experience to be fully exploited, and until China builds several of them in the next twenty years, Chinese naval vessels in the Indian Ocean will mostly be devoid of air-cover unless they are supported from offshore bases in countries like Pakistan which would however seriously restrict their operational reach. So, China’s military power in the Indian Ocean can be on display but its surface vessels cannot fight effectively.

China’s use of force has been in measured doses, just enough to frighten smaller nation-states, which does not give much room for the bigger bully, USA to rush and rescue the besieged. It would be reasonable to assume that China will not pick a fight with a major power and it would be amenable to retractions and wait out the issue. Indian strategic calculations should keep this in mind.

China’s military character is therefore one of impersonating strength to deter the big and medium powers while overwhelming smaller states through sheer size. Military power utilises its capacity to hover in the background while road and island building progresses. Doklam 1.0 is illustrative.

Cyber capacity is extensively utilised to steal technology and produce military platforms indigenously. The similarity of some military platforms to their western counterparts is indicative. Notably, Cybernetics is a domain where China advertises its considerable capacity including electronic warfare. But cyber activities by itself can hardly ensure nor deliver victory. It has the power to hurt albeit with temporary effect and its usefulness in a war between near equal powers is unknown.

There is no gainsaying the perception that one should never underestimate potential adversaries. China is arriving with considerable speed and heft and will continue to relentlessly pursue its geopolitical objectives until its demographic profile and internal problems catches up with its ambitions. But let us not be blindsided by optical power which is effective only in the make-believe world of deterrence where military can wear the cloak of strength via technological mirages. With the recent statement(s) of the Chief of Army Staff that, “China has arrived” and ongoing overtures by the political leadership towards China (including offloading of our traditional stance with regard to the Tibetans in India, silence and denial about Doklam 2.0) I would suspect that Indian statecraft has been impacted by the glare of China’s optical power. If true, India is on the menu instead of being at the global and regional geopolitical table.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

Serious question: If drones and robotic weapons can win and hold territory - why the hell are the Chinese putting troops in Doklam?
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Khalsa »

^^^ Responding with this.

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Feel free to replace artillery with whatever you feel like.
Occupation, the actual muscling and taking over of the soil is conducted by the occupiers.
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by shiv »

but but but but but - people are telling me that LOC/LAC/border can be kept safe with drones.
Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

Well the Chinese and their photo-ops. Capshun Time plizzz

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