Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[ShauryaT]

^^Maybe Modi can do things in his style. Come up with another Acronym for India in SE Asia to create a new "economic" grouping? Indian Ocean Trading Partners? IOTP!!! I am sure he will do better.

[NRao]

Chinese wind turbine firm found guilty of stealing U.S. secrets

.........

Back in March 2011, the Chinese company ordered $800 million worth of AMSC (AMSC) products and services. Instead of honoring the contract, prosecutors say Sinovel immediately conspired to steal AMSC's copyrighted information and trade secrets.

Two Sinovel employees then convinced an AMSC employee to secretly download source code from an AMSC computer. Sinovel used the technology to produce new wind turbines and to retrofit existing ones with the U.S. company's technology. It then refused to pay the $800 million it owed AMSC.

Following the theft, the value of AMSC's assets fell by more than $1 billion and almost 700 jobs were lost, according to evidence presented at the trial.

........

[Philip]

I've just said in the RDay td. that the ASEAN-Indo summit at RDay is a masterstroke. It is India's first step in creating a security apparatus for the Indo-ASEAN/Asia-Pacific region with India at the centre, the magnet of attraction to which smaller nations , also providing an alternative to those who are facing Chinese blackmail over debt.

The " magnet" is primarily India's military on power on display tomorrow , well supported by our huge cultural diversity which will remind our guests how India holds together such a diverse mass of humanity within one nation! The nations of ASEAN who have strong ancient ties with India spanning millennia can join the circle of nations which draw much of their historic cultural, social religious and economic ties of yore from India,and can now add strong bonds of security ties with India for the mutual benefit of all .As I write PM Modiji in his welcome address earlier was speaking echoing much in the same vein.The PM has just announced 1000 scholarships for students from ASEAN.A great start and the hope of the dawn of a new era.

[NRao]

Meet the $800 Smartphone That You Probably Won’t Buy

There’s a smartphone that the United States does not want you to buy. It’s called the Mate 10 Pro, and it’s made by Huawei, a Chinese manufacturer that the American government has long suspected of committing espionage for China.

The device, priced at $800, was supposed to make a big splash this year as the first high-end smartphone from Huawei in the United States. But AT&T, which intended to promote the Mate 10 Pro as a rival to premium devices from Apple and Samsung, abruptly pulled out of the deal this month, appearing to bend to pressure from Washington over security concerns. Verizon Wireless, the country’s biggest carrier, may have also canceled a similar deal because of political pressure, according to some reports. (Verizon declined to comment.)

............................

[anupmisra]

^^Maybe Modi can do things in his style. Come up with another Acronym for India in SE Asia to create a new "economic" grouping? Indian Ocean Trading Partners? IOTP!!! I am sure he will do better.

The group should be more than just "trading partners".

[Prem]

[Rudradev]

The Economist (voice of the pro-China Globalists in the West) puts out a scare piece at the bidding of their sponsors. The fact that Beijing and the Clintonistas feel moved to issue this propaganda piece suggests that they are seriously worried about American resolve to confront the Chinese threat.

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/ ... ing-danger

The growing danger of great-power conflict

25th January 2018

IN THE past 25 years war has claimed too many lives. Yet even as civil and religious strife have raged in Syria, central Africa, Afghanistan and Iraq, a devastating clash between the world’s great powers has remained almost unimaginable.

No longer. Last week the Pentagon issued a new national defence strategy that put China and Russia above jihadism as the main threat to America. This week the chief of Britain’s general staff warned of a Russian attack. Even now America and North Korea are perilously close to a conflict that risks dragging in China or escalating into nuclear catastrophe.

As our special report this week on the future of war argues, powerful, long-term shifts in geopolitics and the proliferation of new technologies are eroding the extraordinary military dominance that America and its allies have enjoyed. Conflict on a scale and intensity not seen since the second world war is once again plausible. The world is not prepared.

The pity of war

The pressing danger is of war on the Korean peninsula, perhaps this year. Donald Trump has vowed to prevent Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, from being able to strike America with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, a capability that recent tests suggest he may have within months, if not already. Among many contingency plans, the Pentagon is considering a disabling pre-emptive strike against the North’s nuclear sites. Despite low confidence in the success of such a strike, it must be prepared to carry out the president’s order should he give it.

Even a limited attack could trigger all-out war. Analysts reckon that North Korean artillery can bombard Seoul, the South Korean capital, with 10,000 rounds a minute. Drones, midget submarines and tunnelling commandos could deploy biological, chemical and even nuclear weapons. Tens of thousands of people would perish; many more if nukes were used.

This newspaper has argued that the prospect of such horror means that, if diplomacy fails, North Korea should be contained and deterred instead. Although we stand by our argument, war is a real possibility (see article). Mr Trump and his advisers may conclude that a nuclear North would be so reckless, and so likely to cause nuclear proliferation, that it is better to risk war on the Korean peninsula today than a nuclear strike on an American city tomorrow.

Even if China stays out of a second Korean war, both it and Russia are entering into a renewal of great-power competition with the West. Their ambitions will be even harder to deal with than North Korea’s. Three decades of unprecedented economic growth have provided China with the wealth to transform its armed forces, and given its leaders the sense that their moment has come. Russia, paradoxically, needs to assert itself now because it is in long-term decline. Its leaders have spent heavily to restore Russia’s hard power, and they are willing to take risks to prove they deserve respect and a seat at the table.

Both countries have benefited from the international order that America did most to establish and guarantee. But they see its pillars—universal human rights, democracy and the rule of law—as an imposition that excuses foreign meddling and undermines their own legitimacy. They are now revisionist states that want to challenge the status quo and look at their regions as spheres of influence to be dominated. For China, that means East Asia; for Russia, eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Neither China nor Russia wants a direct military confrontation with America that they would surely lose. But they are using their growing hard power in other ways, in particular by exploiting a “grey zone” where aggression and coercion work just below the level that would risk military confrontation with the West. In Ukraine Russia has blended force, misinformation, infiltration, cyberwar and economic blackmail in ways that democratic societies cannot copy and find hard to rebuff. China is more cautious, but it has claimed, occupied and garrisoned reefs and shoals in disputed waters.

China and Russia have harnessed military technologies invented by America, such as long-range precision-strike and electromagnetic-spectrum warfare, to raise the cost of intervention against them dramatically. Both have used asymmetric-warfare strategies to create “anti-access/area denial” networks. China aims to push American naval forces far out into the Pacific where they can no longer safely project power into the East and South China Seas. Russia wants the world to know that, from the Arctic to the Black Sea, it can call on greater firepower than its foes—and that it will not hesitate to do so.

If America allows China and Russia to establish regional hegemonies, either consciously or because its politics are too dysfunctional to muster a response, it will have given them a green light to pursue their interests by brute force. When that was last tried, the result was the first world war.

Nuclear weapons, largely a source of stability since 1945, may add to the danger. Their command-and-control systems are becoming vulnerable to hacking by new cyber-weapons or “blinding” of the satellites they depend on. A country under such an attack could find itself under pressure to choose between losing control of its nuclear weapons or using them.

Vain citadels

What should America do? Almost 20 years of strategic drift has played into the hands of Russia and China. George W. Bush’s unsuccessful wars were a distraction and sapped support at home for America’s global role. Barack Obama pursued a foreign policy of retrenchment, and was openly sceptical about the value of hard power. Today, Mr Trump says he wants to make America great again, but is going about it in exactly the wrong way. He shuns multilateral organisations, treats alliances as unwanted baggage and openly admires the authoritarian leaders of America’s adversaries. It is as if Mr Trump wants America to give up defending the system it created and to join Russia and China as just another truculent revisionist power instead.

America needs to accept that it is a prime beneficiary of the international system and that it is the only power with the ability and the resources to protect it from sustained attack. The soft power of patient and consistent diplomacy is vital, but must be backed by the hard power that China and Russia respect. America retains plenty of that hard power, but it is fast losing the edge in military technology that inspired confidence in its allies and fear in its foes.

To match its diplomacy, America needs to invest in new systems based on robotics, artificial intelligence, big data and directed-energy weapons. Belatedly, Mr Obama realised that America required a concerted effort to regain its technological lead, yet there is no guarantee that it will be the first to innovate. Mr Trump and his successors need to redouble the effort.

The best guarantor of world peace is a strong America. Fortunately, it still enjoys advantages. It has rich and capable allies, still by far the world’s most powerful armed forces, unrivalled war-fighting experience, the best systems engineers and the world’s leading tech firms. Yet those advantages could all too easily be squandered. Without America’s commitment to the international order and the hard power to defend it against determined and able challengers, the dangers will grow. If they do, the future of war could be closer than you think.

[SSridhar]

Terror, maritime cooperation top agenda at Asean summit - Sachin Parashar, ToI

Maritime cooperation, with an eye on the security situation in South China Sea (SCS), and terrorism dominated India's unprecedented Asean outreach, including its decision to invite leaders of all 10 Asean nations for the R-Day parade to celebrate 25 years of India-Asean partnership.

While PM Narendra Modi underlined freedom of navigation as a key "focus area" of India's maritime cooperation with Asean countries, the southeast Asian grouping responded by jointly calling for a comprehensive approach for "countering cross-border movement of terrorists and foreign terrorist fighters" in the Delhi Declaration of the Asean-India Commemorative Summit.

This was a rare mention of "cross-border" terrorism, which India uses to pin Pakistan down {It is just no longer an issue between India and Pakistan alone as China has taken an open stand to support Islamic jihadi cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan. China's support for such terrorism in the UNSC, UNGA, FATF is a clear indication that it is prepared to use any means to achieve its hegemony. The same cross-border terrorism applies to the Afghan-Pakistan situation also where once again China is intervening and is supporting the Taliban and their tactics. Some ASEAN countries are afraid of this Chinese stance on terrorism because of their own situation.} for its support to India-specific terror groups like LeT and JeM, in an India-Asean document. Indian officials said there was complete unanimity between India and Asean on the issue of terrorism. "India shares Asean's vision for peace and prosperity through a rules based order for the oceans and sea," Modi said at the plenary session of the summit. At least four nations — Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines {and now Indonesia also}— are party to territorial disputes with China in the SCS.

Countries like Vietnam and Singapore have repeatedly urged India to increase its security profile in southeast Asia. "Respect for international law, notably UNCLOS, is critical for this. We remain committed to work with Asean to enhance our practical cooperation in our shared maritime domain. During the retreat (at Rashtrapati Bhavan), we had an opportunity to discuss maritime cooperation as a key focus area for growth and development for the Indo-Pacific region.

Indeed, maritime cooperation is an integral part of our discourse throughout our commemorative activities," Modi said. India and Asean are looking to set up a mechanism for greater cooperation in the maritime sector. On the issue of terrorism, both sides agreed to promote a comprehensive approach to combat terrorism through close cooperation by "disrupting and countering terrorists, terrorist groups and networks, including by countering cross-border movement of terrorists and foreign terrorist fighters and misuse of internet, including social media, by terror entities''.

They also agreed to strengthen cooperation to stop terror financing efforts, and prevent recruitment of members of terrorist groups, support efforts in targeting terrorist groups and sanctuaries, and take "further urgent measures to counter and prevent the spread of terrorism", while stressing that there could be "no justification for acts of terror on any grounds whatsoever''.

India and Asean reaffirmed the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight in the region, and other "lawful uses of the seas and unimpeded lawful maritime commerce and to promote peaceful resolutions of disputes, in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)''.

The declaration also said the two sides supported the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and looked forward to an early conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC).

[Pulikeshi]

Pullekesi can you elaborate in Indian Interest thread on Wei Qi and the Tamil works you mentioned?

I will x-post the relevant posts there.

Will do...

[Pulikeshi]

Important questions arise -- out of the Chinese video on OBOR parodied -- in the above video:

1. Will Whiskey & Vitamins end up with Red Bull for children?
2. Why does Ms. Vitamin have an Aussie accent? The Chinese have a habit of relying on bad Aussie script writing - a la old Jackie Chan movies!
3. If this OBOR makes no economic sense why phor does Chinese Ms. Vitamin fall for British (some ethic confusion on who makes...) Mr. Whiskey?

Belt and Road Forum - BARF should be the BRF name for OBOR

[kit]

The stratfor has published the pictures of new build up at the himalayas

[Prasad]

Interesting.
PLA chiefs from UN missions, South China Sea promoted

Three PLA rear admirals, Zhang Wendan, Li Yujie, and Zhou Xuming, commanders of the United Nations-led escort missions in the Gulf of Aden near Somalia and other bluewater war games in the vicinity of the PLA’s first overseas base in Djibouti, have taken up their new positions this month as Chief of Navy Staff, commander of the North Sea Fleet and head of the equipment department, according to a presidential order signed by Xi Jinping, who also heads the PLA’s Central Military Commission.

Among them, Rear Admiral Li, 56, the newly installed North Sea Fleet commander, once oversaw and steered a PLA Type-052 destroyer on a high-profile global voyage and visited ports in the United States.


The PLA has not fought a battle or fired a bullet in any standoff since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. So, Beijing is anxious to hone the force’s skills with drills, manoeuvers, plus mock battles between PLA battalions. Those keen to be promoted must be able to demonstrate exceptional guts and wisdom to outwit and defeat any “foe”.

[SSridhar]

India-ASEAN ties can benefit region: China - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

China on Thursday cautiously welcomed India’s invitation extended to the heads of ASEAN and offered Beijing’s “constructive” participation for promoting the overall development of the region.

Rejecting a zero-sum approach, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said “China is open to all countries developing friendly relations.” She added: “So, we are okay with India developing friendly and cooperative relations with ASEAN countries.”

Rejecting the notion that the New Delhi meeting was meant to send a message to Beijing of India’s growing political clout in China’s backyard, Ms. Hua said: “We hope all countries can work together for peace, stability and development of the region. We can all play a constructive role.”

China’s ties with ASEAN have been on the upswing with trade expected to reach $1 trillion by 2020. India’s trade with ASEAN in 2016-17 stood at $70 billion, Xinhua reported.

“China and India share a lot of common interests. China would like to enhance coordination and cooperation with all countries including India to steer the economic globalisation towards benefiting world economic growth and well-being of all countries,” Ms. Hua had earlier said.

[SSridhar]

India and China 'partners' not 'rivals' in the post-Doklam phase, says Gautam Bambawale - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

India’s ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale has advocated a new phase of dialogue between India and China, to foster a stronger post-Doklam “partnership” between the two countries.

In an interview with Global Times, which appeared ahead of the India’s Republic Day, Mr. Bambawale rejected the notion that the two civilizational states were “rivals”.

“India and China are partners in development and progress,” the ambassador observed. He added: “We are not rivals.”

Mr. Bambawale’s comments coincide with the presence of 10 ASEAN heads in New Delhi—an event that is being held amid media speculation that the gathering was India’s riposte to China’s rise and assertion in the region. Analysts say that a new understanding fostered by the two countries during the Xiamen BRICS summit in September was consolidated during the December visits to India by Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and China’s state councilor and politburo member Yang Jiechi.

Asked to comment on last year’s 73-day military standoff between India and China at Doklam, Mr. Bambawale said that the incident should be viewed in a larger historical perspective. “I look at the Doklam standoff from such a long-term perspective. When you do so, the Doklam standoff is just one event in a much longer term history. I believe that you are blowing it out of proportion. The people of India and China and our leaders are experienced enough and wise enough to overcome such momentary hurdles in our relationship,” he observed.

India’s top envoy in Beijing also proposed an active multi-level dialogue covering all the bases between India and China in the post-Doklam phase. “I believe that in the post-Doklam period, India and China need to be talking to each other and conversing with each other much more than in the past. This should be done at many different levels, including at the leadership level, the official level and the people-to-people level.”

He added: “We need to be talking and communicating with each other much more than we are doing. Such communication should be frank, candid and open. If we are able to do so successfully, we will understand each other much better and we will build trust and confidence in each other. With enhanced trust and understanding will come a stronger partnership between India and China. I would like to say that India and China are partners in development and progress.”

Mr. Bambawale also stressed that in the new phase of talks, both sides should also focus on the quality of the dialogue—showing greater sensitivity and appreciation of each other’s core concerns. “In our conversations and discussions, it is important to talk to each other and not talk past each other. We must be sensitive to the other side's concerns. Our interaction must be based on equality and mutual benefit.”

Without making a specific reference to the Doklam standoff, which India says was rooted in China’s attempt to build a road in a disputed tri-junction area, Mr. Bambawale said: “Also, in the India-China border areas, especially at some sensitive points, it is important not to change the status quo. We need to be clear about this.”

The Indian envoy highlighted that differences between India and China on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) should be frontally addressed in the next phase of talks. He underscored that “the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through Indian-claimed territory and hence violates our territorial integrity. This is a major problem for us. We need to talk about it, not push it under the carpet. I believe, the more we talk to each other, the easier it will become to resolve problems.”

Mr. Bambawale listed a broad common agenda between India and China, which included support for globalisation, climate change, and global counterterrorism {The ambassador has chosen his words carefully and it conveys the message}.

The ambassador also proposed frequent friendly military exchanges between the two countries, to supplement interaction at the leadership, official, and people-to-people levels. “In line with this thinking, India and China should work together in 2018 to have more summit-level meetings and official meetings. In addition, we should enhance exchanges of parliamentarians, business persons, journalists, academicians, students, sportspersons and film makers.”

[Singha]

Cheen unveils polar silk road plans

http://www.news18.com/news/world/china- ... 42709.html

[ShauryaT]

Mr. Madhav outlined “twelve realisations” about the Indo-Pacific region at the Ministry of External Affairs’ annual conference, the “Raisina Dialogue”, on Wednesday. He was participating in a high-powered panel that included U.S. Deputy Assistant for National Security to President Donald Trump Nadia Schadlow, and Ministers from Australia and Singapore, Christopher Pyne and Maliki Osman respectively.

Mr. Madhav said the “global power axis” had now moved from the Pacific-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific with almost half of the world’s population, half the container traffic, 40% of off-shore oil reserves, and most of the world’s defence spending coming from the Asian region.

The BJP leader also called for support for India’s “proactive role in the region”, saying New Delhi would not be a “spectator” as China pushed its Belt and Road initiative forward. He called the project a “Neo-Marshall plan” in a veiled reference to the carving up of post-war Europe as akin to Chinese infrastructure projects in Asia and Africa.

But, But, Mr. Madhav - the term indo-pacific was nowhere touted until the Americans started doing so. OBOR is a "road based" initiative, Its thrust is the CA regions, traditionally India's backyard. Until, 70 years back the Indian civilization had its areas of interest to span from Hormuz to Malacca and it should be both, not just the oceans. Even in the so called indo-pacific, the land routes are equally important. Also, why call it indo-pacific at all. Stick to the civilizational concepts that always existed and call it for what it is. Indo-China!!

Need to correct my initial feedback.

Ram Madhav at Raisina Dialogue:
https://youtu.be/Cy0evZ56CPE?t=27m10s

I was so wrong in my comments based on the initial reports of this Dialog. I have not seen any major Indian leader articulate a new vision for India, that sounds real, ambitious and absolutely correct for where we are and should be.

Ram Madhav says, we need to be an influential and willing to be a participative global leader. India will lead to its east, participate to our west. American model will not work. Was not comfortable with the words indo-pacific, new global frameworks that are Asian centric are needed. Strategic Autonomy remains an anchor, de-hyphenation ends. He was more comfortable with the words IOR - not INDO-PACIFIC!!!

Beautiful!!!!! Thanks - made my republic day.

The only downside, the forum was western-led Carnegie, US Dep. Sec, Aus DM and ORF (Ambani funded group) and moderated by someone, I do not think highly of.

[yensoy]

Cheen unveils polar silk road plans

http://www.news18.com/news/world/china- ... 42709.html

The writing was on the wall when they started dabbling with icebreakers https://www.arcticnow.com/business/ship ... estically/.

[NRao]

The, huge, advantage China *now* has is that China is a one stop shopping country. Pretty much everything originates from Uncle Xi. Once he approves of a strategy that strategy goes right into teh Red Book and becomes defacto law. Even Quads will have major challenges going against such a juggernaut.

[ramana]

Link:

http://www.news18.com/amp/news/opinion/ ... ssion=true

Deng Xiaoping wanted a peaceful rise for which he evolved a 24 Character Strategy that revolved around hiding ones capability, maintaining low profile and never claiming leadership.

On the contrary, Xi Jinping in 2013 announced a One Character Strategy and that was to ‘BE ASSERTIVE’. That strategy was to proclaim to the world that China has arrived on the centre stage and was soon to regain its position as the centre of the Universe and was all set to challenge USA, should the world be thinking that it is a unipolar world.

China had befriended Russia and had gradually absorbed Russian military prowess, had evolved its own R&D and was growing militarily strong and economically sound. It had actually lifted 225 million people from low middle class to middle class.

Today, China has less than 10 million people below the UN-laid standard of Below Poverty Line (BPL), that is $1.90 per day. Moderate Poverty line is supposedly between $1.90 and $3.10 per day.

We have over 300 million people Below Poverty Line (BPL) by UN standards. If we grow at 10% every year, we can lift approximately 10 million people annually from BPL. Assuming that we grow at 10%, it would still take us three decades with the population remaining constant.

This notwithstanding the Chinese economy, which is five times bigger than ours, and the military modernisation on top gear with allocation almost five times more than us, the size of the Chinese population and the size of their military almost the same as ours, after the teeth to tail ratio was addressed by Xi.

The rise of China with Chinese characteristics is the cause of turmoil in the region. We will soon be the third largest economy in the world but to compete with China militarily will not be advisable.

What then are the options available to India to ensure the territorial integrity of the country and not buckle under pressure from China or in conjunction with its surrogate state, Pakistan.

War is not an option. The need is to develop a credible deterrence against China and a punitive deterrence against Pakistan.

President Xi, the most revered leader after Mao, dressed in combats, urged the military to be ready for a war and to continuously sharpen their swords for any eventuality, as he reviewed the military parade this year.

Doklam has seen mobilisation once earlier in 2008 and was amicably resolved as was the 73-day standoff in 2017. In 1999, too, the Chinese did something similar at another grazing ground near Tawang.

Recently, be it at Chumar, Depsang, DBO, Pangong Tso Lake, Barahoti or Tuting, Chinese belligerence has been tackled with border personnel meetings held under the Peace and Tranquility Agreement between the two countries.

China, after the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang and India distancing itself from CPEC and the perceived closeness to US, has tried coercing New Delhi to tow Beijing’s line and not “show eyes”.

China wants India to do “Pyar, Vyapar and Vyavahar” with only China. I personally felt that PM Modi did walk few additional steps to keep Xi favourably inclined towards its old civilizational neighbour, but all in vain.

Somehow the transgressions, its stand on the NSG and Hafiz Saeed, standing firm with the surrogate terrorist nation which is wasting its ammunition on innocent civilians along the LOC/IB, is a cause for concern.

The Chinese, hopefully, would soon realise that the USA lost its clout primarily by supporting regimes which were not democratic and that India firmly believes in non-alignment. However, this belligerence shown by China and its all-weather friend Pakistan, would necessitate some alliances by India to keep the belligerent neighbours in check.

China believes in strength and China wants India boxed in South Asia and is happy seeing India occupied with its estranged cousins. China knows that heights matter in mountains and whoever is tactically sited cannot be dislodged by jostling.

China is a responsible nation looking to become Numero Uno and will never take a hasty step, but will wear out its adversary and drive them to wits because it knows it cannot tame an old civilization like India.

Such situation demands that India cannot remain complacent and hope to resolve its crisis politically or diplomatically unless it gets militarily strong at known/possible places of transgressions. To avoid transgressions from becoming an ugly face-off, boots on ground adequately equipped 24/7 will only count to be able to deal diplomatically or politically.

Today, we have all of it. All we require is a constant upgrade and infrastructure to remain logistically balanced. Despite the internal challenges that India faces of deprivation, inequalities and violent extremism, we have no choice but to modernise our troops gradually, train them hard, prepare them for a short and intense engagement and keep them acclimatised for high altitude. We have to ensure that their morale is high at all times despite eye ball to eye ball confrontations.

Placing CAPF guarding the Northern or eastern borders under a unified command for better coordination and reactions is a step long overdue and must be taken up on priority.

Prasesh18
OPINION | Doklam 2.0 Will Happen, India Has to Stay Alive and Alert Like Deng Xiaoping
Not a shot will be fired, but in a jiffy, the situation can change which no government in a media-frenzy republic will be able to handle.
Updated on: January 27, 2018, 3:53 PM IST
Lt Gen Sanjay Kulkarni
Prasesh18 Prasesh18 Prasesh18 Prasesh18 Prasesh18
Doklam 2.0 Will Happen, India Has to Stay Alive and Alert Like Deng Xiaoping
Deng Xiaoping wanted a peaceful rise for which he evolved a 24 Character Strategy that revolved around hiding ones capability, maintaining low profile and never claiming leadership.

On the contrary, Xi Jinping in 2013 announced a One Character Strategy and that was to ‘BE ASSERTIVE’. That strategy was to proclaim to the world that China has arrived on the centre stage and was soon to regain its position as the centre of the Universe and was all set to challenge USA, should the world be thinking that it is a unipolar world.

China had befriended Russia and had gradually absorbed Russian military prowess, had evolved its own R&D and was growing militarily strong and economically sound. It had actually lifted 225 million people from low middle class to middle class.


Today, China has less than 10 million people below the UN-laid standard of Below Poverty Line (BPL), that is $1.90 per day. Moderate Poverty line is supposedly between $1.90 and $3.10 per day.

We have over 300 million people Below Poverty Line (BPL) by UN standards. If we grow at 10% every year, we can lift approximately 10 million people annually from BPL. Assuming that we grow at 10%, it would still take us three decades with the population remaining constant.

This notwithstanding the Chinese economy, which is five times bigger than ours, and the military modernisation on top gear with allocation almost five times more than us, the size of the Chinese population and the size of their military almost the same as ours, after the teeth to tail ratio was addressed by Xi.

The rise of China with Chinese characteristics is the cause of turmoil in the region. We will soon be the third largest economy in the world but to compete with China militarily will not be advisable.

What then are the options available to India to ensure the territorial integrity of the country and not buckle under pressure from China or in conjunction with its surrogate state, Pakistan.

War is not an option. The need is to develop a credible deterrence against China and a punitive deterrence against Pakistan.

President Xi, the most revered leader after Mao, dressed in combats, urged the military to be ready for a war and to continuously sharpen their swords for any eventuality, as he reviewed the military parade this year.

Doklam has seen mobilisation once earlier in 2008 and was amicably resolved as was the 73-day standoff in 2017. In 1999, too, the Chinese did something similar at another grazing ground near Tawang.

Recently, be it at Chumar, Depsang, DBO, Pangong Tso Lake, Barahoti or Tuting, Chinese belligerence has been tackled with border personnel meetings held under the Peace and Tranquility Agreement between the two countries.

China, after the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang and India distancing itself from CPEC and the perceived closeness to US, has tried coercing New Delhi to tow Beijing’s line and not “show eyes”.

China wants India to do “Pyar, Vyapar and Vyavahar” with only China. I personally felt that PM Modi did walk few additional steps to keep Xi favourably inclined towards its old civilizational neighbour, but all in vain.

Somehow the transgressions, its stand on the NSG and Hafiz Saeed, standing firm with the surrogate terrorist nation which is wasting its ammunition on innocent civilians along the LOC/IB, is a cause for concern.

The Chinese, hopefully, would soon realise that the USA lost its clout primarily by supporting regimes which were not democratic and that India firmly believes in non-alignment. However, this belligerence shown by China and its all-weather friend Pakistan, would necessitate some alliances by India to keep the belligerent neighbours in check.

China believes in strength and China wants India boxed in South Asia and is happy seeing India occupied with its estranged cousins. China knows that heights matter in mountains and whoever is tactically sited cannot be dislodged by jostling.

China is a responsible nation looking to become Numero Uno and will never take a hasty step, but will wear out its adversary and drive them to wits because it knows it cannot tame an old civilization like India.

Such situation demands that India cannot remain complacent and hope to resolve its crisis politically or diplomatically unless it gets militarily strong at known/possible places of transgressions. To avoid transgressions from becoming an ugly face-off, boots on ground adequately equipped 24/7 will only count to be able to deal diplomatically or politically.

Today, we have all of it. All we require is a constant upgrade and infrastructure to remain logistically balanced. Despite the internal challenges that India faces of deprivation, inequalities and violent extremism, we have no choice but to modernise our troops gradually, train them hard, prepare them for a short and intense engagement and keep them acclimatised for high altitude. We have to ensure that their morale is high at all times despite eye ball to eye ball confrontations.

Placing CAPF guarding the Northern or eastern borders under a unified command for better coordination and reactions is a step long overdue and must be taken up on priority.
Doklam/Zhoglam/Donglang is an 89 Sq Km plateau in Bhutan’s Haa Valley, which is claimed by China and over 20 rounds of talks between Bhutan and China have not resolved the dispute.

Chumbi valley is said to be “the single most strategically important piece of real estate in the entire military region”.

The control of Doklam is critical as it overlooks the Chumbi Valley, giving China an edge to close on to the narrow 24-km Siliguri corridor, which is also the main supply route to Bhutan besides a link to the Seven Sisters.

Doka La is nearly equidistant from Batang La and Gipmochi. India considers Batang La as the tri-junction, whereas the Chinese consider Gipmochi as the tri-junction. The distance between Batang La and Gipmochi is approximately 13 km.

The Chinese will not stop constructing a road in their own area extremely close to the place of dispute. It was agreed in 2012 by India and China that the tri-junction points will be finalised in consultation with all stakeholders.

China, in all probability to win over Bhutan, wishes to create a wedge between India and Bhutan by not letting India talk on behalf of Bhutan and would like to settle the border dispute with Bhutan by itself and swap Doklam for other territories. It wants to lure Bhutan with economic assistance to ruin the Gross National Happiness of Bhutan.

Engagement with China at all levels in all fields, especially trade, is a must. Boycotting Chinese goods is not a step the government must take. In a democracy, the buyer is the king. Let them decide. Indian manufacturers must raise their standards and give our teeming BPL millions an alternative ‘Made in India’ goods, cheaper and better.

The teeming millions want to pray to Ganesha and Lakshmi for prosperity. From where they get the idols, crackers and Holi colours doesn’t matter to them.

Doklam 2.0 will happen. Not a shot will be fired, but in a jiffy, the situation can change which no government in a media-frenzy republic will be able to handle. Being forewarned is being forearmed.

Capacity building takes time. Intentions can change overnight.

To assume that all transgressions by Chinese are executed by local commanders without the blessings of the CPC is living in a fool’s paradise. Xi, the Chairman of CPC, is a prominent leader who is in a hurry to consolidate his position and make China the leading power in the world with Chinese characteristics.

The Chinese believe that a declining America, stagnant Europe, divided Asia and vulnerable Africa in the present state is an opportunity they don’t want to miss. Play Poker, but remember that still waters run deep. Stay alert, stay alive, be a Deng.

(The author, in 1974, led the 4 Kumaon regiment that planted the first Indian flag on Siachen Glacier at Bilafond La which began Operation Meghdoot. Views are personal)

I am sorry it's linear analysis that thinks the surprise of 1962 will be repeated. Yet 1967, 1987, 1999, and 2017 show GOI and all branches are alert to the possibility and the danger.
Dokhlam is about cutting off Eastern India which is not acceptable. It's not just a tri junction border dispute like Aksai Chin.

[Philip]

What are the possibilities of an Indo-Bangla agreement on security, binding both nations together further, which would allow us in times of war, or even in peacetime, the use of a corridor both road and rail south of the chickens neck? With a friendly Hasina in charge it could happen.Some concessions from our side- Teesta waters, e tc. could sweeten the deal apart from z user "toll" for use of the strat.corridor.

[SSridhar]

I consider the following as significant because Cambodia is close to China and Japan & India have been trying to make inroads there.

Cambodia backs anti-terror efforts - PTI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Cambodian counterpart, Samdech Hun Sen, on Saturday held talks to boost ties in key areas of defence, security and counter-terrorism. The two leaders called for concerted global efforts to eliminate terrorism, including blocking sources of terror financing and dismantling terrorist bases.

After the talks, the two countries inked four pacts, including the one to improve cooperation in the prevention and investigation of crimes and legal assistance in criminal matters and another on a line of credit from India to finance Cambodia’s Stung Sva Hab water resources development project for $36.92 million.

Defence programmes

Expressing satisfaction at the current state of bilateral defence ties, including ship visits and training programmes, the two leaders agreed to further enhance ties, including through exchanges of senior-level defence personnel and capacity-building projects.

Both sides expressed a keen interest in enhancing cooperation in maritime domain, including preservation of marine and coastal environment, anti-piracy cooperation, security of sea lanes of communication to maintain peace and ensure safety and security of navigation in the Indo-Pacific Region, and supported complete freedom of navigation and overflight and pacific resolution of maritime issues based on international law.{very significant}

Addressing a joint press event with Mr. Hun Sen, Mr Modi said India had also proposed a line of credit in several key areas such as health, connectivity and digital connectivity.

‘Curse on humankind’

Describing terrorism as a “curse” on humankind which poses a “grave threat” to global peace, security and stability, the leaders unequivocally condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, underscored that there was no justification whatsoever for acts of terrorism, and recognised that terrorism could not be and should not be associated with any religion, nationality, civilisation or ethnic groups, according to a joint statement.

Reaffirming their resolve to fight terrorism, the two leaders affirmed that those responsible for committing, abetting, organising and supporting terrorist acts must be held accountable and be punished.

[SSridhar]

Satellite imagery shows build-up near Doklam - The Hindu

India and China are pursuing a “wide-ranging strategic build-up” in airbases close to the Doklam Plateau, according to the latest analysis of satellite imagery acquired by Stratfor, an American geopolitical intelligence company.

The analysis looked at four critical airbases, two each on both sides, to study the air and air-defence aspects of the two countries.

“The imagery shows that the Chinese and Indian build-ups have only accelerated in the aftermath of the Doklam crisis. Now it is only a question of time until a new flashpoint along the LAC emerges, and as the increased activity shows, both sides will have greater capabilities to bring to bear next time,” the report warns.

India and China had been engaged in an almost two-month standoff at Doklam in the summer of 2017. “Though the impasse was temporarily resolved in late August through a negotiated drawdown, it has been clear all along that the LAC will remain a contentious border because both countries will continue to seek an advantage in this difficult terrain,” Stratfor says.

Supremacy on air

The company looked at imageries from two Indian airbases — Siliguri Bagdogra air base and the Hasimara Air Force Station. Both depict “how India has moved to reinforce its air power close to the Doklam Plateau,” it says. “Siliguri Bagdogra normally hosts a transport helicopter unit, while Hasimara was the base for the MiG-27ML ground attack aircraft until they were retired at the end of 2017. Since the Doklam crisis of mid-2017, however, the Indian Air Force has greatly increased the deployment of Su-30MKI warplanes to these air bases as can be seen from the imagery,” the analysis pointed out. “An even greater level of activity is visible from imagery of the Chinese airbases near Lhasa and Shigatse,” the report says. “This expansion may indicate a greater build-up by the Chinese, but it could also reflect the more advanced facilities at these bases. Furthermore, unlike India, China’s lack of airbases close to the LAC forces it to concentrate more of its air power at these airports,” the report says.

Increased deployment

Imagery of the two airbases shows a significant presence of fighter aircraft, which peaked in October, and a notable increase in helicopters and deployments of the KJ-500 airborne early warning and command aircraft, components of the HQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile system and the Soar Dragon UAVs at Shigatse Peace Airport.

“The Chinese made a number of major airfield upgrades at Shigatse immediately after the end of the crisis. A new runway was constructed by mid-December, nine aircraft aprons measuring 41 metres by 70 metres were built along the main taxiway and eight helipads were set up in the northeast corner of the airfield,” the report says. “This construction, along with the deployment of new equipment in greater numbers, highlights how China has undertaken a serious effort to improve capabilities close to the LAC,” it says.

[NRao]

Interesting article.

Asia under Trump: How the US is losing the region to China

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"It's the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in July 2021, and I think (Chinese President) Xi Jinping will love to demonstrate his people that China has become a dominant power in Asia by then," she said.

"The US may want to change its Asia policy after three years, but I'm very worried if that will be possible," Masuo added. "China is restructuring the entire international order in the Asia Pacific."

...........................................

.............................................

South Asia: Military focus shifting

Barely two weeks into 2018, Indian Army chief Gen. Bipin Rawat said it was time for India to shift its defensive focus to the northern border it shares with China.

"The country is capable of handling China's assertiveness. China is a powerful country, but we are not a weak nation," he said in New Delhi on January 12, according to the Indian Express.

The comments infuriated Beijing, spurring a series of rebukes from the Chinese Foreign Ministry and even editorials in state media publications.
Trump: Relations with India better than ever


(Trump: Relations with India better than ever 07:17)

But Bharat Karnad, research professor in national security studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, said the repositioning was necessary and long overdue.

"We are shifting our military focus from Pakistan to China. This is something we should done 30 years ago," he said, adding further tensions on the Chinese/Indian border such as the 2017 standoff at Doklam were inevitable.

According to Rawat, India and several other countries in Asia, including Japan, were already treating the US as a "fading power," who could no longer be relied on for defense purposes.

"It could manifest itself in the future via Asian countries and especially India and Japan cooperating and collaborating further on their security objectives," he said.

Other countries in South Asia have anticipated the new paradigm in a different way, choosing to make definitive moves closer to the government in Beijing.

Pakistan is a close part of China's grand One Belt One Road infrastructure initiative which will be unfolding in Asia over the coming years as Beijing sponsors projects across the region with an aim to recreate the original Silk Road.

Speaking to CNN, former Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said she didn't believe her country had to pick between the US or China, but added Beijing had been a long-term partner for Pakistan.

"(China is) perhaps the only real strategic partner Pakistan has had, not from today or the last five years, but for the last four decades. With them, we have a complete alignment of interest," she said.

In January, the US confirmed it would be suspending an estimated $1 billion in security assistance to Pakistan over what it sees as a failure by the Pakistani government to adequately clamp down on terror groups within its borders.

Elsewhere, Myanmar's controversial State Councilor Aung San Suu Kyi recently visited Beijing again to a warm reception, while the Sri Lanka the government announced it had granted a Chinese company a 99-year lease on a newly constructed port.

Despite India's neighbors Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar working closely with China, Karnad said Delhi had one advantage which would hold Beijing at bay for the near future at least.

"(China) cannot afford to lose the Indian market," he said. "If it upsets India too much, it can shut off the Indian market to Chinese goods, the Chinese economy takes a big hit ... Things are far more difficult for China than many people in the West make out."

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[chola]

Their build up directly underneath our guns in Doklam is grey zone maneuver not a war zone one. They are staking open claims on the Doklam Plateau like they did in the Spratlies with the calculated risk that this won’t lead to war.

If we don’t initiate war on Bhutan’s behalf then the plateau is theirs. It’s that simple.

Starting war has to be an option. We need to escalate a grey zone offense like Doklam to a war of liberation across the entire border.

[SSridhar]

Seychelles allows India military infra on island - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

Overcoming a hiccup, India and Seychelles signed a revised agreement that will allow India to build military infrastructure on Assumption Island, that will expand its strategic reach in the Indian Ocean.

Foreign secretary S Jaishankar signed the agreement in Victoria on Saturday.

In a statement, Jaishankar said, "India and Seychelles have drawn up a cooperation agenda that covers within its purview joint efforts in anti-piracy operations, and enhanced EEZ surveillance and monitoring to prevent intrusions by potential economic offenders indulging in illegal fishing, poaching, drug and human trafficking. The cooperation is further exemplified by the operationalisation of the Coastal Surveillance Radar System in March 2016, and our commitment to augment Seychelles' defence assets and capability. "

After meeting Jaishankar, the island nation's President, Danny Faure, said "Today we will sign a revised version of the Agreement for the development of facilities on Assumption Island. This project is of utmost importance to Seychelles, and it attests to the kinship and affinity that exists between our two countries. We are proud to have India as a partner in realising our development aspirations."

The agreement had been signed in 2015 during the visit of PM Modi but it ran into trouble because it had not been ratified by the Seychelles parliament by the previous president, James Michel. The first sign that the agreement was in trouble came in August 2017, when Faure said in a press conference that it would have to be re-negotiated. "We would like to relook at the agreement which does not have a legal statute on the Seychelles side. But for India, it has a legal statute. We have to go back to the drawing board."

That took Jaishankar to Seychelles in October, and the two sides restarted discussions on amendments to the agreement. The negotiations were completed after the Seychelles opposition party gave a thumbs up to it.

Faure worked with the opposition and after including several amendments cleared it with his cabinet on January 22. A statement after the Seychelles cabinet meeting said, "Cabinet agreed on the main purpose of the agreement which is to provide a framework for assistance to the Government of Seychelles by the Government of India to enhance the military capabilities in control and maritime surveillance of our EEZ, protection of our EEZ and the outer islands and search and rescue in the region for the benefit of air and shipping traffic." After the signing, the agreement would be ratified by Seychelles parliament. The ratification is expected to be a formality because the new agreement has been agreed to by both government and opposition.

The agreement is very important for India, as it works hard to mark a military presence on both Seychelles and Mauritius (Agalega island), in its drive to extend its strategic footprint in the Indian Ocean.

The Faure government put the brakes on the agreement with India in 2017 — after the 2016 elections, Faure's party, People's Party lost their majority in parliament, which went to the opposition coalition, Linyon Demokratik Seselwa (LDS). Its leader, Indian-origin Wavel John Charles Ramkalawan was important to build political consensus on the agreement.

During his recent visit to India as part of the PIO parliamentarians conference in New Delhi, Ramkalawan indicated that a consensus had been achieved and the deal would be done shortly. The signing of the agreement is among the last actions by Jaishankar, who will be replaced by Vijay Gokhale as foreign secretary.

The importance of the agreement this time is that it will be more solid, having full political approval from both ruling and opposition parties in Seychelles.

[SSridhar]

^ Seychelles is one of the proposed 18 foreign bases by PLAN. It is the only the second port earmarked by PLAN for logistics supply plus naval personnel rest & recreation. Gwadar will be the only other port in that category which would also have weaponry repairing.

The Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Seychelles in c. 2005. China transferred two Y-2 turboprop aircraft for maritime patrolling and also received permission for PLAN to make frequent port calls. In Dec. 2011, the Seychelles also announced naval resupply facilities for PLAN including a fuelling facility. The Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army, Gen Ma Xiaotian met with President of Seychelles James Michel in mid-July, 2012 and reaffirmed China’s commitment to deepen bilateral military cooperation.

During PM Modi’s “Ocean Outreach’ visit in March 2015 to neighbouring island states in the IOR, India bagged “infrastructure developmental rights’ to the Assumption island of Seychelles. Modi also said, “We also hope that Seychelles will soon be a full partner in the maritime security cooperation between India, Maldives and Sri Lanka”. India also agreed to give the Seychelles a second Dornier aircraft for coastal surveillance. In an interview with The Hindu in December 2015, the Seychelles President James Michel said that the Assumption Island project was a “joint project between India and Seychelles involving our two Defence Forces in enhancing our mutual security along our western seaboard. Seychelles is absolutely committed to the project”. He also said that the “The Maritime Radar Project is a major development for Seychelles’ and India’s mutual desire for security in the field of maritime security,” India is setting up a chain of 8 Coastal Surveillance Radar Systems (CSRS) in Seychelles.

[yensoy]

The, huge, advantage China *now* has is that China is a one stop shopping country. Pretty much everything originates from Uncle Xi. Once he approves of a strategy that strategy goes right into teh Red Book and becomes defacto law. Even Quads will have major challenges going against such a juggernaut.

It goes without saying that China's undoing will come as a result of its own internal inconsistencies - bad debt going nuclear, housing bubble stagnation/popping, currency issues, and malinvestments. As things stand, at current prices China offers a fantastic deal to all. It is close to impossible to match, forget about undercut, the combined offering of price, quality, schedule and delivery of any hard product even with shipping and duties factored in. But China is not a cheap place to do business - every single input - electricity, labour, raw material etc is more expensive in China not less, yet they are able to provide finished product at a lower price. Something is clearly wacky in the picture here, and over time that something (presumably subsidized by generations of Chinese families savings) will get out of hand.

Chinese are fiercely price-competitive, not just with outsiders but even internally which is why even if China has a monopoly on a certain component, internal Chinese competition will keep its price in check (same can be said of Indian pharma companies who are at each others throats). Except in very limited instances for instance with rare earths, the Chinese government has not stepped in to enforce, leverage or monetize this monopoly, and they cannot appear to do so since it will trigger fear in people's minds and cause an entire "second-source" industry to be built up across the globe.

We keep hearing of Chinese state attempts as talking up AI, robotics and automated manufacturing to replace manual jobs as labour gets more expensive; however people still need to be employed unless China wants to cultivate an underclass of hundreds of millions living on government dole - unemployed but not hungry. AI and robotics aren't going to fix that problem, in fact they will worsen it.

Xi Jinping's BRI is somewhat like a Chinese Marshall Plan in that he wishes to keep the party going by creating overseas demand for Chinese products by handouts and financing. Let's see how far that goes...

[chola]

It goes without saying that China's undoing will come as a result of its own internal inconsistencies - bad debt going nuclear, housing bubble stagnation/popping, currency issues, and malinvestments.

Great! Then we have nothing to worry about and we have to do nothing other than wait for the PRC to collapse

Yensoy ji, it is far from clear that Cheen will be undone in any way under its current trajectory.

We are not dealing with an insular military power like the USSR that couldn’t keep up with the innovations of the West and collapsed trying. The PRC is a global trading power that, though a dictatorship, is an paradoxically a competitive and far more open society than the USSR. A country that sends more tourists and students into the world than anyone else in the world.

PRC doesn’t only copy the latest designs of the West, they learn and copy the latest techniques and theories as well.

Three stories to illustrate that we are dealing with a flexible nation that will be able to continue adapting to a changing world.

1) Arctic Silk Road Trade Routes, far sighted and opportunistic. If global warming is happening then take advantage of it to further expand Cheen’s trade empire:
http://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-ma ... oad-792490

2) Sending the world’s largest numbers of students to the developed world and then luring them back to Cheen to solidify seething business and science communities that are Western educated:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ljkelly/20 ... 4d96e45c1e

3) Open embracing of foreign culture and ideas which bodes well for a trading power that is flexible and comospolitan:
https://m.hindustantimes.com/bollywood/ ... SVRQM.html

For all our diversity, we will never see a movie top the Indian box office from Cheen or Pakistan our enemies. But the chini market have done exactly this with flicks from the US, Japan and now India. They are far more open to foreign trends and ideas than we are as a democracy.

Cheen is a combination of a dictatorship and a free market. It can drive initiatives with clear five-year plans but at the same time flexible enough to incorporate the latest techniques from the rest of the world.

This is not an USSR in the making. I have little faith that the PRC will simply collapse. It is too dynamic, too forward looking and too open to the outside world to stagnate.

Without any disruption such as a war, the trendlines point to a more and more modern, mercantile and global power.

[Singha]

A bit OT but india needs to set itself challenging goals in agriculture and food processing like improving yield by 3x in 15 years to catch up and increasing size of food industry.

With less arable land than india, cheens yield is much higher.

For this one cannot ascribe it to stealing ip, demolishing urban slums etc etc typical sinic regime strengths

Fact is we still depend on monsoons and sit around with very low gains in agriculture..a lot of our farming is subsistence level just to keep the family going

Banned stuff is still used to grow crops in india , endangering our gene pool and our food exports regularly fail us/eu stds on sanitation, pesticides and additives. Its like allowing autos and taxis to use adulterated fuel that causes way more pollution because its poor mans livelihood

The gap between current std of govt 12th edu outside the urban ateas and that needed to participate in modern manufacturing is still big

Swachh bharat can start with making sure the food produced is safe and good enough to export anywhere

[SSridhar]

Insurgency likely to increase after Doklam: Former Lt Gen - PTI

Insurgency is likely to increase in the north east after the Doklam stand-off with China and there are already signs of it in the region, former GOC-in-C Eastern Command Lt Gen J R Mukherjee said here today.

Whenever India has annoyed China or there has been a border related issue between the two countries, it (China) has aided insurgents in the north east, Mukherjee told newspersons here commenting on the possible fall-out of the 74-day stand-off with the Chinese at Doklam in the Sikkim sector.

"Consequent to Doklam, insurgency will increase in the north east and signs of these are already evident," the retired Lt General, who is the vice-president (operations) of strategic thinktank CENERS-K, said.

Mukherjee said that Doklam is neither the first time nor the last that China has made such an attempt. Its army will keep coming and camp at places of that country's strategic interest.

"In Doklam, they (China) will eventually try to twist the Bhutanese state to get what they want," he said and claimed that the Chinese have not left Doklam but have only stepped back a little.

Centre for East and North-East Regional Studies (CENERS), Kolkata, which has as its patron former Army chief Gen Shankar Roy Chowdhury and advisor former Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha, is organising a two-day dialogue on Indo-China issues and relations between the two Asian giants.

The seminar, to be held on February 2 and 3, is scheduled to be attended by Minister of State for External Affairs Gen (retd) V K Singh and will delve on issues ranging from political, economic and military capabilities to problems and prospects relating to bilateral investments.

Prof Guo Xetang, director of Institute of International Strategy and Policy Analysis, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, will be the lone Chinese speaker at the event, which is also scheduled to be attended by US and Japanese diplomats.

[NRao]

Rather dated topic, but is rearing its head again. To teh extent that German companies rep in China has threaten to withdraw from China (about time).

Exclusive: In China, the Party’s push for influence inside foreign firms stirs fears

Aug, 2017.

BEIJING (Reuters) - Late last month, executives from more than a dozen top European companies in China met in Beijing to discuss their concerns about the growing role of the ruling Communist Party in the local operations of foreign firms, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.

President Xi Jinping’s efforts to strengthen the party’s role throughout Chinese society have reached the China operations of foreign companies, and executives at some of those entities don’t like the resulting demands they are facing.

The presence of party units has long been a fact of doing business in China, where party organizations exist in nearly 70 percent of some 1.86 million privately owned companies, the official China Daily reported last month.

Companies in China, including foreign firms, are required by law to establish a party organization, a rule that had long been regarded by many executives as more symbolic than anything to worry about.

One senior executive whose company was represented at the meeting told Reuters some companies were under “political pressure” to revise the terms of their joint ventures with state-owned partners to allow the party final say over business operations and investment decisions.

He said the company’s joint venture partner was pushing to amend their agreement to include language mandating party personnel be “brought into the business management organization”, that “party organization overhead expenses shall be included in the company budget”, and that posts of board chairman and party secretary be held by the same person.Changing joint venture agreement terms is the main concern, the executive said, noting that his company had thus far resisted.

“Once it is part of the governance, they have direct rights,” he said.

The State Council Information Office (SCIO), which doubles as the party spokesman’s office, told Reuters in a faxed statement that there is no interference by party organizations in the normal operating activity of joint venture or foreign-invested companies.

However, it added, “company party organizations generally carry out activities that revolve around operations management, can help companies promptly understand relevant national guiding principles and policies, coordinate all parties’ interests, resolve internal disputes, introduce and develop talent, guide the corporate culture, and build harmonious labor relations.”

“They are widely welcomed within companies,” the SCIO said. MAJOR DECISIONS

Of the 13 executives, all from different foreign companies, Reuters interviewed for this story, 8 expressed concerns about increasing demands from the party or noted increased activity from party groups. They all spoke on the condition that they and their companies not be identified given the sensitivity of discussing relations with the party.

Just two of 20 major multinationals queried by Reuters - Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KS) and Nokia NOKA.HE - confirmed having party units in their China operations. Most did not respond to questions on the subject. Only German chemicals giant Bayer AG acknowledged participating in the meeting organized by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, but declined to comment on what was discussed.

Carl Hayward, general manager and director of communications at the European Chamber’s Beijing chapter, acknowledged the meeting was held to “understand from our members if party structures are being formally introduced into the governance of joint ventures.”

“We have not noted any formal change of policy that reflects this. This is as we would expect since such a change would act as a deterrent to foreign investment in China,” he said.

“REAL MUSCLE”

Under Xi, the party has sought to address the “weakening, watering down, hollowing out and marginalisation” of party leadership at state enterprises, the party’s official People’s Daily wrote in June. The paper cited an official with state-owned oil giant Sinopec as saying the company had demanded all its foreign joint venture partners “specify the requirement for party-building work” in their articles of association.

While plans to expand party organizations in foreign companies have been a quiet concern for several decades, only under Xi has “some real muscle” been put behind the goal, said Jude Blanchette, who studies the party at The Conference Board’s China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing.

A significant number of major foreign companies operate in China through joint ventures with state enterprises. Foreign business groups have complained that their members are forced to allow Chinese partners access to their technology or risk losing market access.

Many Chinese state enterprises listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange have this year altered their articles of association to give an explicit role to internal party committees.

One country head at a major European manufacturer with a southern China joint venture said that late last year it allowed a party unit to meet on company premises – after hours. The party unit asked for overtime pay to hold the meeting, which the company rebuffed. But then it also demanded the company hire more party members, and even tried to weigh in on investment decisions.

“That’s when we said this is a no-go zone. We didn’t anticipate that they would discuss investment decisions,” the manager told Reuters.

A sales and marketing head in China for a major U.S. consumer goods firm said its party cell had recently become more active, and had pushed for locating a new facility in a district where the local government was promoting investment, a move the company made.

Still, several executives with foreign companies in China said that the role of party units was benign and could help to resolve issues with officials. A party member at a U.S.-based Fortune 500 company in Shanghai said her firm’s unit was not involved in business matters and instead engaged in activities such as planting trees and sponsoring children. “They will give you some tickets to see movies together. When the State Council has a meeting and there’s some news they will send bullet points by email,” she said.

[NRao]

FCC chief opposes Trump administration 5G network plan

............................

A National Security Council official presented senior members of the Trump's administration with information suggesting that the United States needs to centralize its 5G network by the end of President Donald Trump's first term as a safeguard against Chinese cybersecurity and economic threats.

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[Peregrine]

India, China should resolve border differences in a calm way: Beijing

BEIJING: China on Monday defended its military infrastructure build up in Doklam and claimed that the area falls within its sovereign territory.

Commenting on Indian envoy to China Gautam Bambawale's interview to state-run Chinese daily 'The Global Times' where he said the status quo should not be changed along the sensitive areas of the 3,488-km border, China's foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that differences can be addressed through existing mechanisms.

"I believe that you are blowing it (Doklam standoff) out of proportion. I believe that in the post-Doklam period, India and China need to be talking to each other and conversing with each other much more than in the past at different levels including at the leadership level," Bambawale had told the daily.

India and China ended the 73-day standoff on August 28 last year at Doklam area after the People's Liberation Army (PLA) stopped building a strategic road close to India's narrow Chicken's Neck area connecting the northeastern states.

"Indeed, we have noted that the ambassador talked about it while addressing the issue," Hua said when asked about the Indian envoy's remarks.

"The two sides should look at border issues in a calm way and resolve relevant issues through the existing border related mechanisms so that we can create conditions and enabling environment to properly solve our differences," she said.

Besides a mechanism to discuss border tensions, India and China also have special representative-level border talks to resolve the differences over disputed border.

The Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China stretches to 3,488km. The two sides held 20 rounds of talks to resolve the border issues.

Hua reiterated China's stand that Doklam, which is also claimed by Bhutan, is very much its territory.

"I should stress that it (area) falls within China's sovereignty and we conduct facility building in Dong Long (Doklam) area," Hua responded when asked about the satellite images which showed new Chinese military facilities at Doklam.

"The Sikkim section of the China-India boundary has been demarcated by historic treaty as under effective jurisdiction of China," she said.

China claims that the Sikkim section of the boundary is resolved under the 1890 treaty between UK and China.

"China has always upheld our sovereignty along the border area including (Dong Long) Doklam," she said.

"Some Indian media has carried reports about the military build up and infrastructure building in the (Doklam) area. They are very excited about it," she said.

Asked about the local commanders' meeting held on the Republic Day during which they exchanged pleasantries, Hua said, "the local military personnel and border troops of the two sides held a meeting on India's Republic Day."

"We think this is conducive to enhance mutual trust and upholding peace and stability along the border areas. We are also willing to enhance our communication and cooperation to better safeguard the security there and to create a better environment in this regard," she said.

The meetings were the first since Doklam standoff. Chinese military personnel skipped such meetings on the Independence Day last year.

Cheers

[Agasthi]

I for one wish China realizes that India is no enemy. India can be a threat but it is for them to convert that to an opportunity. An India that is on its team will accelerate the demise of the western powers after all we have more in common with them than the west. After a 1000 years, a non-monotheistic power has risen to become a superpower and if the present(Uighurs & Catholics) is any indication, it would be interesting to see how abrahamic faiths deal with an equally resolute and ruthless power rooted in its three jewels.

[Rudradev]

That is a thought many of us have entertained. The problem is that the Chinese psyche is fundamentally insecure. Their self-conception as Zhongguo (Middle Kingdom between Earth and Heaven) dictates that they can only feel secure by establishing absolute primacy, particularly over their immediate neighbours. Only when they are the anchor of all stability and prosperity, as far as the eye can see, have they realised their national vision. They will be benevolent to their neighbours only when their neighbours are abject supplicants and tributaries... not equals.

Many conservatives in the US have this in mind when they make the comparison between today's China and Nazi Germany. However, their blind spot prevents them from seeing that the true Western parallel of this imperial mentality is not Germany, but Great Britain.

[Austin]

BBC: CIA chief says China 'as big a threat to US' as Russia

[SSridhar]

I for one wish China realizes that India is no enemy.

Agasthi, I go back to what we have discussed here and elsewhere. It is not the question of India being an enemy or not. It is a question of India accepting the hegemony of China. China strongly believes that there cannot be two swords in the same sheath. No, this is not rhetorical, it *IS* a staunch Chinese belief. For China, India is a challenger because in terms of size, civilization and potential, there is simply no other country that can come anywhere near PRC. That makes China worried.

China feels that if India joins the Quad (which it already has), then China's work to lord over India would double. First, it would have to wean her away from such an alliance/partnership and then re-start the hegemonizing programme. China faces a particular drawback with India unlike its advantageous position with the rest of the countries surrounding it. Japan, Korea, Singapore, Mongolia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia have been either Chinese tributary at various times or have a huge Chinese diaspora and cultural influence. Many of them are smaller economies. But, India not only is as huge a country as China but an equally great (if not greater) civilization, has cultural influence too over those very same countries mentioned above, never had any Chinese influence on it (OTOH, only China has a huge Indian influence in the form of Buddhism) etc. So, China is fearful of India that it can be the only spoilsport for its Middle Kingdom ambitions.

I do not therefore see a solution here by displaying piety. China will *NOT* relent. On its part, India realizes this, especially in the last few years, but one must admit that all governments since the 70s, have taken tough stands vis-a-vis China.

The Indian position seems to be to give back to China as much as it gets without holding back anything but at the same time not letting the situation go out of control. There is quite optimism too that if the situation does get out of control, we can manage it equally well; but, we don't want it to come to such a pass. China too does not want the situation to deteriorate beyond a point it considers as manageable. So, all the manouevering is within this space.

[brvarsh]

Too much friendliness and giving Chinese inch by inch will not make it stop either. A strong stance and proactive development is the only thing that Chinese would understand. We lest not forget India too is a credible nuclear power with a very reliable delivery system and defense forces that are capable to perform preemptive strikes. If narrative from China is that India no where matches them then they should also understand they will have much bigger things to lose too. Chinese policy now is either accept their expansionism, get out of manufacturing competition or risk terrorism through Pakistan and in North East. Our response should be F' you!

[Philip]

The b*****d sh*tworms are doing quite well themselves,disgracing their reputation.Look at what they did to the Africans.
Why there should be a total ban on all Chinese electronic eqpt. in India.GOI are you listening? I know of one politicowho uses fancy Chin phone.I warned him.he was unaware of the danger!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... ing-spying

China rejects claim it bugged headquarters it built for African Union
Beijing dismisses report it put bugs in walls and desks and downloaded data from its servers every night for five years

Tue 30 Jan 2018
The African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, which was reportedly bugged by China for five years.
China and the African Union dismissed on Monday a report that Beijing had bugged the regional bloc’s headquarters, which it built and paid for in the Ethiopian capital.

French newspaper Le Monde quoted anonymous African Union (AU) sources saying that data from computers in the Chinese-built building had been transferred nightly to Chinese servers for five years.

After the hack was discovered a year ago, the building’s IT system including servers was changed, according to Le Monde. During a sweep for bugs after the discovery, microphones were also found hidden in desks and the walls, the newspaper reported.

The $200m headquarters was fully funded and built by China and opened to great fanfare in 2012. It was seen as a symbol of Beijing’s thrust for influence in Africa, and access to the continent’s natural resources.

As in the Ethiopian capital, China’s investments in road and rail infrastructure are highly visible across the continent. At a 2015 summit in South Africa, Chinese president Xi Jinping pledged $60bn in aid and investment to the continent, saying it would continue to build roads, railways and ports.

Chinese and African officials who were in Addis Ababa for the bloc’s annual summit denied Le Monde’s report.

China’s ambassador to the AU, Kuang Weilin, called the article “ridiculous and preposterous” and said its publication was intended to put pressure on relations between Beijing and the continent. “China-Africa relations have brought about benefits and a lot of opportunities. Africans are happy with it. Others are not.“

Asked who he referred to, he said: “People in the west. They are not used to it and they are simply not comfortable with this.“

Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s president who assumed the AU chairmanship this year, said he did not know anything about it. “But, in any case, I don’t think there is anything done here that we would not like people to know,” he said after a meeting of African heads of state.

“I don’t think spying is the speciality of the Chinese. We have spies all over the place in this world,” Kagame said. “But I will not have been worried about being spied on in this building.”

His only concern, he said, was that the AU, instead of China, should have built the headquarters. “I would only have wished that in Africa we had got our act together earlier on. We should have been able to build our own building.”

[VishalJ]

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 8738264064

China builds new African Union HQ for "free" in 2012.
2017 a tech employee notices an oddity.
"between midnight and 2am, computer servers were reaching a peak in data transfer activity...[and] later discovered that the AU servers were all connected to servers located in Shanghai"

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 2974732293

"computer systems were fully equipped by the Chinese, allowing them to open an undocumented portal that gives Chinese administrators access to the AU’s computing system. This“backdoor”is an intentional fault put into code to allow hackers and intl agencies to gain illicit access"