Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 06 Feb 2018 10:28

Yes, more than enough has happened to justify our military intervention.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 06 Feb 2018 10:29

If I was president yameen and thought there was a credible threat of Indian military intervention, I would invite the Chinese to send navy/troops on a 'friendly' visit. How plausible is the that scenario? AFAIK the PLAN has at least one ship continuously deployed in the Indian Ocean on "Anti piracy" role. Or can their forces in Djibouti be mobilized?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 06 Feb 2018 10:30

very important to have deep contacts within neighboring military, judiciary and politicians. Military contacts come very handy in all the situations...lessons from khan.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 06 Feb 2018 10:30

hnair wrote:Why would one muster at Yelahanka? That chap sounds daft. Shanghumughom strip seems calm today morning, as is that place at Pangode. Both places will bustle in minutes, if things get exciting. I saw only a rare pic or two of a super-herky last month with a C17, among the vigorous planespotter community here.

There is a parachute battalion based in Bangalore. It has the IAF infrastructure to both fly out the paras and sustain the operation.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 06 Feb 2018 10:32

abhik wrote:If I was president yameen and thought there was a credible threat of Indian military intervention, I would invite the Chinese to send navy/troops on a 'friendly' visit. How plausible is the that scenario? AFAIK the PLAN has at least one ship continuously deployed in the Indian Ocean on "Anti piracy" role. Or can their forces in Djibouti be mobilized?

we have very upper hand here. China will not put its reputation at stake.

Hence we don't want any chinese warship at Hambantota, sri lanka.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 06 Feb 2018 10:39

Deans, based on the open source news about recent years of excersizing etc, this would need the 91st brigade to be mobilized. This time, would be different from Cactus objectives, because a heavily armed stabilizing force would be needed, for the next pro-India administrator to shape up. But based on activity levels, I think we are not yet at that point (could be totally wrong)

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Feb 2018 10:42

abhijitm wrote:
abhik wrote:If I was president yameen and thought there was a credible threat of Indian military intervention, I would invite the Chinese to send navy/troops on a 'friendly' visit. How plausible is the that scenario? AFAIK the PLAN has at least one ship continuously deployed in the Indian Ocean on "Anti piracy" role. Or can their forces in Djibouti be mobilized?
we have very upper hand here. China will not put its reputation at stake.

Hence we don't want any chinese warship at Hambantota, sri lanka.

did anyone know??

these two jokers, gayoom and yameen are half brothers??

Strange world Indeed. Family feud??

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 06 Feb 2018 10:46

91st may not be required. Para with MARCO Detachments + Navy at sea will form adequate force.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 06 Feb 2018 11:19

We need a heavily armed force to occupy the territory for a period. Only commandos will not serve that purpose.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Feb 2018 11:34

A year ago I advocated planning for such an eventuality,dusting off the Cactus files. What we have to factor in is that there are heaps of high-value foreign tourists and no harm must come to them.The arrest of Gayoom is a preventive one by the dictator-pres.,hostage in case of any intervention.He must be getting swift advice from both the Chins and Pakis.What the Maldivian Oppn. have to do is to continue the chaos/demos,strikes,whatever to paralyse the govt. now on its last legs and before even an ambitious trooper plans a coup."In the country of the blind the one-eyed man is king".The men with weapons now rule the roost. Before any local bloodletting,a swift intervention to restore the situ is reqd. It should be a combined ops affair with a greater involvement of the In than earlier to secure the many atolls,esp. those with mil. applications.

Our intervention cannot look like "annexation".The Maldives must be returned to democracy,BUT if we do go in for the second time,it shall be the last,as henceforth,the country will be an Indian de-facto protectorate as I've illustrated with Mauritius and the Seychelles.Incidentally,there were some minor demos in that spot against handing over Aasumption Island to us for a legit. naval/air base.Of course it was instigated but of little consequence.
The fact that the majority of the Maldivians are Muslims must be factored in,as there should be no backlash from other Muslim nations.This is unlikely as both Najeeb and Gayooom and the SC judges are at the mercy of the current despot.

A dawn assault would be best to take over the Hulhule airport,accompanied by a naval task force which should not only secure male,but also strat. atolls esp. those planned to be used by the Chins.All Chins must be rounded up and politely booted out.All deals with China illegal and can celled.Its debt,ask the ousted joker for it! Simply put,"can't pay"..for corrupt deals.Given the number of dispersed atolls,many of which are hotels,we need a large number of CG units too to monitor/sanitise events.The quick return of the Maldivian police taking over law and order internally is a must to keep or boys outside any possible firing line due to instigators with firang backing.There are dozens of seaplanes at the airport and lots of high speed boats/water taxis ,all must be requisitioned immediately.

In Mauritius ,India has deputed a senior figure as Defence and Security Adviser to the PM.The same should be done for the Maldives too in the aftermath,as it must become an "Indian Protectorate" henceforth while retaining its independence.

The sooner a peaceful transition takes place with a new govt. in power,tourism,its main earner will return to normality.That is its only major income earner.Without it it will resemble a classic basket case .

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 06 Feb 2018 12:13

abhijitm wrote:We need a heavily armed force to occupy the territory for a period. Only commandos will not serve that purpose.

Restore democracy. Conduct elections & move on. Big men with big guns are not fun. Little green men with a baton and a small gun often get the work done.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 06 Feb 2018 12:44

Maldives chief justice arrested: Police

Malé: Maldives Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed and another Supreme Court judge were arrested at dawn Tuesday, hours after President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency, police said.

Justices Saeed and Ali Hameed were arrested along with the court`s top administrator Hassan Saeed after security forces stormed the court complex in Male, with police citing complaints of corruption against them in a brief statement.

The high profile arrests followed the arrest Monday of ex-president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the estranged half brother of Yameen.

The declaration of a state of emergency for 15 days followed a tense stand off between Yameen and the Supreme Court which had ordered the release of nine political prisoners.

The top court had also ordered the reinstatement of 12 legislators who had been sacked for defecting to the opposition. The move had effectively given the opposition a majority in the 85-member parliament clearing the way for a possible impeachment of Yameen.

Gayoom had sided with the main opposition and was campaigning for the toppling of his half brother.

Gayoom was taken into custody along with his son in law, the family said. They were taken away by police who broke down the main door to their home in the capital, his daughter Yumna Maumoon said on Twitter.

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 06 Feb 2018 12:52

Patni wrote:Maldives chief justice arrested: Police

Malé: Maldives Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed and another Supreme Court judge were arrested at dawn Tuesday, hours after President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency, police said.

Justices Saeed and Ali Hameed were arrested along with the court`s top administrator Hassan Saeed after security forces stormed the court complex in Male, with police citing complaints of corruption against them in a brief statement.

The high profile arrests followed the arrest Monday of ex-president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the estranged half brother of Yameen.

The declaration of a state of emergency for 15 days followed a tense stand off between Yameen and the Supreme Court which had ordered the release of nine political prisoners.

The top court had also ordered the reinstatement of 12 legislators who had been sacked for defecting to the opposition. The move had effectively given the opposition a majority in the 85-member parliament clearing the way for a possible impeachment of Yameen.

Gayoom had sided with the main opposition and was campaigning for the toppling of his half brother.

Gayoom was taken into custody along with his son in law, the family said. They were taken away by police who broke down the main door to their home in the capital, his daughter Yumna Maumoon said on Twitter.

That happened yesterday midnight.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Feb 2018 13:57

NDTV https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ex-mald ... -topscroll

COLOMBO: Exiled former Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed today urged India to "act swiftly" to help in resolving the ongoing political crisis in the island nation that escalated after President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency and troops arrested the top judge of the country.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Feb 2018 14:00

Blr has some para SF elements stationed as it did not get a NSG hub.

this is really a job for the parachute regiment, backed by marcos and para-SF ofcourse.

for garrison duty after the initial takeover, we can send a couple batallions of the IA div that trains for the island defence role with proper supplies, LST, tanker etc.

CG dorniers and P8 can do the initial scouting to mark threats. and Su30 can drop a few BETAB bombs on holdouts.

whoever is appointed next satrap of the cesspool needs to sign on a paper giving us a permanent military base and a 500 year mutual defence treaty with india. this is a must lest like bangladesh the next satrap is Gen HM Ershad type.

VishalJ · Post by **VishalJ** » 06 Feb 2018 15:01

https://twitter.com/MohamedNasheed/stat ... 6268835841
Today, 11:44am IST

On behalf of Maldivian people we humbly request:
1. India to send envoy, backed by its military, to release judges & pol. detainees inc. Prez. Gayoom. We request a physical presence.
2. The US to stop all financial transactions of Maldives regime leaders going through US banks.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 06 Feb 2018 16:11

Before India goes in, we need to in collaboration with US and friendly powers create a media noise for next few days and have each country issue statement condemning the action of imposing emergency and jailing judiciary and opposition and giving a deadline to make it happen. It will set the stage nicely for intervention through force.

Meanwhile, Indian military and naval.personnel can land in Maldieves to protect our business interests and tourists and embassy.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Feb 2018 16:11

china which prolifically sends tourists to IOR island nations has asked its tourists to now stay away.

i wonder if they are making ready a play to step in from Djibouti and 'resolve' this issue and set themselves in firmly

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 06 Feb 2018 16:31

Very possible. Xi has been itching to assert himself in IOR for a while now and if they have the capability, he wouldn't hesitate. Time is of the essence. This is a big test for our intelligence agencies, readiness of armed forces and assertiveness and decision making skills of our national security leadership including PM Modi-ji himself.

Lets hope it works out well.

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 06 Feb 2018 17:40

Why would china need to get in its military from Djibouti unless India gets its military in ?
I think its game set for a bigger conflict with China if India Intervenes in Maldives. I am not saying we must shy away. But it is a defect that remains in our Dhoti shivering genes.
Would be really surprised if India even responded. But it is opportunity lost if we don't intervene now.

SiddharthS · Post by **SiddharthS** » 06 Feb 2018 18:34

a) If Xi gets there before India, Modi will turn out be another nincompoop Pm, and the time is running out.

b) What's paramount is Indian interest. Which dictates, Indian ocean is India's ocean and anyone who comes here must be at the mercy of India; an Indian Monroe Doctrine. IOR state must act according to Indian interest, and Maldives is not just India's backyard but virtual Indian territory.

c) If we want to install democracy then Indian spies must make large part of their political/elite class, same with Sri Lanka and other small states.

d) The idea of involving Americans in a virtual Indian territory shows the degeneracy of Indian strategic thinking. It shows how long We have been running away from taking responsibility of area that lies in our sphere of responsibility.

gauravsh · Post by **gauravsh** » 06 Feb 2018 18:58

SiddharthS wrote: d) The idea of involving Americans in a virtual Indian territory shows the degeneracy of Indian strategic thinking. It shows how long We have been running away from taking responsibility of area that lies in our sphere of responsibility.

+100

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 06 Feb 2018 19:00

Singha wrote:whoever is appointed next satrap of the cesspool needs to sign on a paper giving us a permanent military base and a 500 year mutual defence treaty with india. this is a must lest like bangladesh the next satrap is Gen HM Ershad type.

Can they join Indian union?

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 06 Feb 2018 19:23

The way hanging fruit is presented to India and the way GOI is restraining .........incomprehensible. Is there another factor which is not in public domain? Is it too late? Is there some nasty surprise waiting? Why GOI is not reacting.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 06 Feb 2018 19:35

hnair wrote:Deans, based on the open source news about recent years of excersizing etc, this would need the 91st brigade to be mobilized. This time, would be different from Cactus objectives, because a heavily armed stabilizing force would be needed, for the next pro-India administrator to shape up. But based on activity levels, I think we are not yet at that point (could be totally wrong)

It depends on how we want to calibrate our intervention. Start with a travel advisory warning all Indians to stay out of Maldives (reducing its GDP by about 14% at one stroke even if only Indian tourists are considered) and Indians in Maldives to return home. A couple of IN warships loitering near Male will send a signal to China to keep out. A para battalion landing at the airport - to rescue stranded Indians (the US excuse for invading Grenada) cuts off Maldives from the outside world (GDP reduces another 14% with no tourism and more if imports stop). If India asks for its 2 helicopters back, the Maldives air force does not exist.

At this stage the Maldives leadership will probably agree to elections. BSF/CRPF units (which US etc will agree is a suitably trained neutral force)
can ensure law and order during the elections, with international observers etc present. I don't see the International community complaining.

If some persuasion is still needed, the existing Army and Navy units will facilitate the deployment of more forces.

nam · Post by **nam** » 06 Feb 2018 20:52

Karthik S wrote: Can they join Indian union?

Should never make this mistake. In decade or so Maldives will become a jihadi hotbed.We have the Southern version of Kashmir.
Make a treaty for some naval base and pay them accordingly.

Keep them at arms length from our country.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 06 Feb 2018 20:53

We need a chamcha just like US has UK and Australia. Wherever we send our forces, they would also send a token force to make it an International Peace Force.

nam · Post by **nam** » 06 Feb 2018 20:59

Before we park Vikramaditya on their shores, do we know how popular or not is the current president? or the ex-president?

We might get our-self involved in a fight between two power hungry people using religion as a tool. Soon the lot over there might start IED'ing our citizens & forces.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Feb 2018 21:19

it does not really matter who loves or hates who.

we need our own SOB in there on the throne. thats all there is to it.

fig leaves like rule of law, democracy, secularism are useful as cover if need be ....

its smaller than koramangala here and definitely much smaller than jayanagar . adjoining island to male is the airport.

nam · Post by **nam** » 06 Feb 2018 21:30

Perfectly fine with having our SOB there, just don't want our forces get in nation building and getting blown up by holy warriors.

If the current president is popular with the holy warriors, it might get messy.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Feb 2018 21:33

UK establishment think tank Chatham House advocates Indian action.Says least problems in doing so.Despot allowed China and Soothis to buy Maldivian territory for 1 $1B by reclaiming a certain %.oc the land.With the SC CJ also arrested and Maldivians crying out for us to intervene, we must do so swiftly otherwise Pak and China may send troops on his request and complicate the picture.

Paki shelling timed to distract us from acting in the Maldives until the despot gets his act together.Rajiv G never asked for firang advice when he intervened! Dear PM, the Intl . community is watching to see if India puts its money where its mouth is.If we do not act decisively here with pipsqueak Male , will ASEAN ever trust us with standing up to China? This is the lowest hanging fruit ever for India since the police action in Hyderabad.In Goa, the Portuguese at least fired a few shells at us and fought fiercely at some points!

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 06 Feb 2018 21:42

I've been to the Maldives, well ok resort. Few observations. 1. They like Indians. 2. They dislike the Chinese (which are coming over in increasing tourist numbers). 3. I asked the locals who work the resorts (Maldivians) and most who are of the younger sort, say 30 and less like Nasheed (the deposed leader). 4. Most of the Maldivians have been to Sri Lanka and to India (which surprised me). Big fans of bollywood and healthcare. They come to India for more serious health conditions. I did not get a jihadi vibe from them but of course they are in the service business so perhaps its kept on simmer. What I did get was that they view India as their bigger brother and protector. Chinese intrusion into this island chain must be stopped. If you view Prime Minister Modi as anything different from MMS etc, he must intervene. A lack of response is only going to make the Chinese bolder and more perfidious. I've never been to northern Kashmir so I couldn't compare anti-Indian sentiments but all the Maldivians I met had a favorable view of India and a yearning to learn the language, culture or to visit. Also, lots of Indian tourists now in the resorts there so Indians are patrioting money to the Maldives; the currency of the Maldives is totally fake in terms of value and most transactions are done in Dollars and Euros. Maldivian currency is only used by locals on the out islands and on Male. India shouldn't let this one slip.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 06 Feb 2018 21:50

Avas.mv reporting that SC has rescinded Thursday night order to release political dissidents.

SiddharthS · Post by **SiddharthS** » 06 Feb 2018 21:52

If Yameen is popular then the job of our intelligence agencies is to make him unpopular. I'd be surprised if Maldives doesn't already host substantial number of Indian agents.

gauravsh · Post by **gauravsh** » 06 Feb 2018 22:47

^^^
There was an interesting tweet from Nitin Gokhale :

India has and can intervene militarily without anyone’s invitation. Arrest of Supreme Court Chief Justice is provocation enough. However, to assume that New Delhi is sitting silently is fallacy. For all you know the current crisis may have been triggered by India prodding the SC!

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 06 Feb 2018 23:21

Today's newspaper (TNIE, BLR edition ) mentioned that there is a permanent IN detachment in Maldives. That's news to me. Anyone know what it comprises of?

SiddharthS · Post by **SiddharthS** » 06 Feb 2018 23:52

That's just carelessness from Gokhle, who should know better as an embedded journalist of this goverment. Even if we did prod the judiciary there should not be any inkling of it. And if someone suggests that we did, they should be made fun of and labled their thinking as conspiratorial.
This goverment has unfortunately made circus of special operations; chest thumping, disclosing tactics and parading special forces operatives on T.V for political brownie points is very unwise. One hopes the acumen that was shown in the Doklam crisis will serve as a template for future intelligence and special forces operations.

There is very boorish saying that GOI should follow: Chodna jyada chillana kum.

AdityaM · Post by **AdityaM** » 07 Feb 2018 00:06

rsingh wrote:The way hanging fruit is presented to India and the way GOI is restraining .........incomprehensible. Is there another factor which is not in public domain? Is it too late? Is there some nasty surprise waiting? Why GOI is not reacting.

We can’t afford to be there for long. Neither will our internal politics or security situation allow that.

So if we move in, enforce discipline. Then what will be our exit strategy?
Since Maldives police & military supports their dictator, So our exit strategy will not be conducive to retaining the discipline.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 07 Feb 2018 00:33

India expected to follow SOP on Maldives, to keep troops ready

India, which said it was "disturbed" over the situation in the archipelago nation, has already issued a travel advisory as part of the SOP but officials would not confirm one of its crucial aspects pertaining to keeping troops on standby.
Sources said troop movement has been seen at a key airbase in southern India.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 07 Feb 2018 00:44

Well, that time is here again. A small IOR nation in trouble and explicitly asking for Indian help. I hope we do not screw up this time. Last thing we need is to go there, do the cleanup job, and foolishly hand the keys back to whoever imbecile is available, like Rajiv Gaandee did.

What is needed in Maldives is a pro-India goremint, foreign policy and defense in Indian hands (like in Bhutan), and a permanent military presence that is strong enough to deter any further drama.

Basically, it is time to:

1) Back up our claim of being "net security provider" in the IOR. Otherwise we will not be taken seriously by anyone.

2) Show that "net security provision" is not "free". We expect something in return.