Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Feb 2018 12:46

I was told that we have ourselves to blame to an extent as our former NSA MKN was the one who dropped the ball during the UPA regime.We did not read the riot act then and meekly allowed the Chins to get their foot on.The need of the hour is to restore the previous situ and bite the bullet if need be.Enough dilly-dallying has taken place, the incarcerated Oppn. there have twice pleaded with us for help.They may not be around to make a third appeal.

Background to events.# PLAN FFGs visited Male late last yr. and in Dec. the two govts. signed an "Airport Eco. Zone" and "Joint Ocean Observation Station" agreements. In effect,the airport would be controlled by the Chins and the JOOS an intel establishment to monitor IN naval activities.At stake is nothing less than the entire Maldives turning into a Chin protectorate and the establishment of several naval bases/facilities in the various islands/atolls.From Djibouti to Gwadar,Male,to Hambantota to another panned deepwater port in Burma,the PLAN will effectively have thrown a ring round India in the IOR.With permanent deployment of PLAN naval forces in the IOR we might as well rename it in advance as the Indo-China Ocean!

http://www.spsnavalforces.com/experts-s ... n-Maldives

China's military base in Maldives
January 19, 2018 By Lt. General P.C. Katoch (Retd)
By Lt. General P.C. Katoch (Retd)
Former Director General of Information Systems, Indian Army

An article in the China Daily during 2014 stated China plans to build 18 "Strategic Support Bases" in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), outlining a blueprint for the establishment of 18 Chinese "Overseas Strategic Support Bases" like in Djibouti, Aden, Salalah, Seychelles, Gwadar in Pakistan etc. China immediately denied such plans and the article was taken off. A second article in the China Daily Mail on November 22, 2014 quoting Sri Lankan sources reiterated Chinese plans to build 18 "naval bases" in the IOR in Hambantota (Sri Lanka), in Pakistan and Myanmar, Walvis Bay (Namibia), in Djibouti, Yemen, Oman, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Seychelles, Madagascar and other parts of Indian Ocean. China denied all such reports. According to US media, China is constructing its second overseas military base in Pakistan at Jiwani in the Gulf of Oman, for which a joint China-Pakistan neeting between Pakistani military and PLA was held at Jiwani on December 16, 2017. The large naval and air base requires Pakistan to relocate scores of residents living in the area. But China denies such plans. The PLA has established a military base in Skardu in POK, some 23 km from Kargil, and plans to establish another military base in North Waziristan but China would deny it.

Now China is funding a Brigade of the Afghan Natioanl Army (ANA) and setting up a base for it in Badakshan region of North Afghanistan close to the Wakhan Corridor. China has already built a road through the Wakhan Corridor, where a railway line is also coming up. But China will deny plans for PLA presence at this new base, first under guise of construction, then joint patrolling, and finally a joint base – akin to the PLA base in Skardu region. China will deny it claims Afghan territory though it is on record that it does. China will deny it has been patrolling deep inside eastern Afghanistan though photographic evidence of it vehicle patrols exist. China denies all intrusions in Indian Territory claiming it is all Chinese territory. China denied intruding Bhutan in Doklam area, also claiming it is Chinese territory. So it can be comfortably concluded that China will deny all her expansionist actions. What perhaps China cannot deny is that Xi Jinping is China's President albeit China will continue to deny that Xi has expansionist plans like Hitler and maniacal tendencies given that under his orders all churches in China have been demolished, the mega church in Hong Kong where 50,000 Christians worshipped was dynamited recently, and all photographs of Jesus Christ have been replaced by that of Xi Jinping. Therefore, it is natural for China to deny it is developing a base in Maldives.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Maldives in September 2014. Xi has secured Maldivian support for China's '21st century maritime silk road'. Chinese development projects are going full speed in Maldives. China has also agreed to build a road bridge between central Male island and nearby Hululle island, where the international airport is located. China and Maldives recently signed a free trade agreement (FTA) that will enable Chinese goods to flood Maldives without any import duty. Maldives President Abdulla Yameen was the first President to make a state visit to China in December 2017. Maldives already owes 70% of its total external debt to China and China will extract strategic mileage in return to huge loans including for refurbishing the international airport of Maldives. According to Zhiyong of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China is promoting Maldives as a maritime pivot; Maldives could become supply base for Chinese military and civil vessels. Both China and Maldives deny plans of any Chinese base in Maldives.

But Ahmed Naseem, former Foreign Minister of Maldives had warned as far back as in April 2016 of indications that Maldives was looking to let the Chinese build a port at Gaadhoo island in the southern atoll. According to him, "people had already been evacuated from the region and that the Chinese were currently (read April 2016) building roads there". He had significantly added, "I believe Yameen has done irreparable damage to India-Maldives relations and his actions will change the balance of power in the Indian Ocean. The security issues of the region need to be re assessed and appropriate steps taken to keep the sea lanes safe and secure for the benefit of the regional countries". Naseem was the first Foreign Minister of Maldives to have officially visited Israel in May 2011. Gadhoo Island, 437 km from Male, falls under the administrative atoll of Gaafu Dhaalu. It is an inhabited island with a population of just 2,910. The Island has a length of 1,850 km and width of 0.580 km. If Chinese were developing roads in the Gadhoo Island during April 2016, possibly there would have been a secret deal between Xi and Yameen during Xi's visit to Maldives in September 2014, Xi being the first Chinese head of state to visit China. China will portray the development of Gadhoo Island under pretext of tourism infrastructure initially, followed by supply, berthing and maintenance base for China, Maldives and friendly countries (on lines of MoU China signed with Seychelles years back) and eventually a Chinese naval base co-opting Maldivian Coast Guards. No doubt China will keep denying such plans but gradual strangulation has been the Chinese way and in this case a certainty having caught Maldives by its financial jugular. Post reclaiming all the land it could in South China Sea (SCS), China commissioned the 'Tian Kun Hao' in July 2017; a ship capable of digging 6,000 cubic m per hour, equivalent of three standard swimming pools. China may deny but for certain this vessel will be used to deepen the shallow waters of Gwadar port and developing Chinese military bases at Jiwani and Gadhoo Island to accommodate nuclear submarines underwater. In January this year, China's indigenous underwater glider 'Haiyi', capable of reaching a depth of 6,329m successfully fulfilled a scientific observation in the Indian Ocean. Recently, Pentagon has reported existence of Russian underwater drones. It may be assumed that China too would be developing these, if not already deployed. Given the location of Gadhoo Island in the Indian Ocean, this Chinese military base will severely impinge on the security of India and that of the region

This is the NDA's "62 moment.Are we to lose the Maldives to China through asinine inaction ,like Nehru, scaredy cat who refused to use the IAF which could've turned the tables upon the Chins then?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Feb 2018 13:14

The internal situ,political shennanigans aspect of the crisis.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ial-reform

The Maldives’ political soap opera won’t end without judicial reform
JJ Robinson
However excited the opposition may be about their recent good fortune, it didn’t come about as a result of the action of independent judges
Wed 7 Feb 2018 17.35 GMT

The tranquillity of the Maldives’ tourist resorts, popular with British honeymooners, arms dealers and celebrity footballers alike, is matched only by the fractiousness of its domestic politics. This was underlined on Monday by the declaration of a 15-day state of emergency.

The contradictions hardly end there – the Maldives successfully trades as one of the world’s most romantic tourism hotspots, while simultaneously maintaining the punishment of flogging for the crime of extramarital sex. A honeymooners’ paradise, it also boasts the world’s highest divorce rate – by a factor of two. A million visitors flood its white sandy beaches every year (half of them European), while in the other direction, Maldives has likely contributed more fighters to Syria and Iraq on a per-capita basis than any other country not directly engaged in the conflict.

Maldives state of emergency: judges block release of political prisoners
Read more
The political situation has been tumultuous ever since the country’s autocratic leader of 30 years, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, lost free and fair elections in 2008 to a former political prisoner, Mohamed Nasheed. Liberal and progressive, many of Nasheed’s reforms would be thwarted by the intervention of an “independent” judiciary still loyal to Gayoom. Branded by Gayoom’s opposition as anti-Islamic and accused of meddling in judicial affairs, Nasheed was forced to resign amid a coup in February 2012. The supreme court repeatedly overturned the results of the 2013 elections at the regime’s behest, and Gayoom’s half-brother, Abdulla Yameen, was eventually declared president. Nasheed was thrown in prison, and grudgingly released into exile only following the intervention of human rights lawyer Amal Clooney.

President Yameen has ruled with an authoritarian streak, and was accused of corruption, thuggery and international money laundering in an explosive al-Jazeera documentary, Stealing Paradise. All senior opposition figures have been jailed or forced into exile, joined by a stream of Yameen’s allies, accused of treason, corruption and myriad assassination plots.

Islamic radicalism has thrived amid the government’s ambivalence, if not outright complicity. Foreign reporters have been barred from entering the country, while local journalists have disappeared or been murdered. Well-known local satirist Yameen Rasheed, the Maldives’ answer to Jon Stewart, was stabbed to death outside his door in April 2017. “I’m not particularly afraid of death … But I’d always wanted nature to get me. Not some idiot mullah foot-soldier with a knife,” he wrote, shortly before his murder.

Until the supreme court’s sudden change in loyalty on Friday, the situation in the Maldives looked hopeless. Declaring its own prosecutors and judges “unduly influenced”, the court ordered release and retrials of nine of President Yameen’s most grievous adversaries. Those freed included Gayoom’s son, MP Faris Maumoon, former defence minister Mohamed Nazim (who took part in the 2012 coup against Nasheed), and former tourism minister Ahmed Adeeb, accused of plotting to blow up the presidential yacht and involvement in money laundering of $1.5bn.

The judges have been at the centre of most of the recent ills; at least 50% have less than seventh-grade education
“It is slightly farcical,” one Maldives-based journalist said of the court’s abrupt decision, requesting anonymity for fear of deportation. “It’s like being paid to throw a football match. You’ve got to make it look realistic. You don’t just turn 180 degrees and blast the ball past your own keeper.”

So integral are the courts to controlling the Maldives that Yameen reacted on Monday by sacking the police commissioner and declaring the 15-day state of emergency. The military stormed the supreme court building and took several judges into custody, including the chief justice. Gayoom and members of his family were also arrested.

The situation is precarious. Gayoom still commands significant loyalty in the security forces – bizarrely, one of the arresting officers was filmed saluting the former dictator as he was taken into custody. Protesters are travelling to the capital from the outer islands to be tear-gassed while international actors, including the US, UK and India, have rounded on Yameen while pumping out travel advisories. The autocrat’s situation is now unsustainable, with both the tourism economy and stomach of the security forces unlikely to withstand the severe crackdown needed to end the stalemate.

Early elections, already scheduled for later this year, seem the most likely next step for regaining a semblance of national legitimacy. However, Yameen has no incentive to hold these, having alienated or imprisoned the majority of his former allies, and possessing little democratic support base of his own. Mohamed Nasheed’s party retains the single largest voting majority, despite the odd alliance he has now formed with Gayoom – his long-time jailor and arch-nemesis.

Maldives crisis deepens as government declares state of emergency
Read more
Ultimately the ongoing telenovela of Maldivian political intrigue is a distraction from the real crisis – the illegitimacy of the judiciary. Handpicked by Gayoom during his rule and illegally given life tenure under the new constitution in 2010, the judges have been at the centre of most of the Maldives’ recent ills; at least 50% of the 200-odd judges and magistrates have less than seventh-grade education, while a quarter had actual criminal records, including convictions for sexual misconduct, embezzlement, violence and disruption of public harmony.

Resoundingly discredited by groups such as the International Committee of Jurists and the UN’s special rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers, the institution demands wholesale reform, and likely the presence of foreign judges on the bench. However excited the opposition at their recent good fortune, current events are far from a triumph of judicial independence.

• JJ Robinson is the author of Maldives: Islamic Republic, Tropical Autocracy. He is the former editor of Minivan News, the country’s first independent English-language news service

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2018 13:32

gan airport in maldives - not far from diego garcia

https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Gan ... 73.1556125

neither our lutyens kababi class nor the current regime seems to have a clue about maritime strategy and the importance of the sea in composite national power. the best grasp was demonstrated by british in days of old - aden, suez, malta, crete, gibralter, singapore, trincomalee, male, hormuz, HK there was not one maritime choke point they did not occupy

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Feb 2018 13:42

Our Lutyens Bagh crowd seem to think that our armed forces are best for R-Day parades and inviting firang guests to watch this annual circus!

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 08 Feb 2018 16:01

Maldives is also part of Saudi Barbaria camp cutting off relations with Qatar last year. I hoping Sushma Swaraj has bought this up on her KSA trip.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 08 Feb 2018 16:10

Philip wrote:Our Lutyens Bagh crowd seem to think that our armed forces are best for R-Day parades and inviting firang guests to watch this annual circus!

PM needs to take the final decision. We are being encircled right in front of our eyes. Neighbors showing middle finger to us and doing only lip service for media consumption. You got to assert yourself.

God forbid our intelligence successfully made the judges to go against yameen and after they did we just issue statement like 'we are disturbed' then the opportunity is lost, more serious - trust is lost.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 08 Feb 2018 16:18

It is a question of when and not if, china completes its string around us they will successfully cut western and eastern naval fleets. This is a serious security situation. Fk any diplomacy and just kick yameen's a$$. Let saudis and chinese deal aftermath.

SiddharthS · Post by **SiddharthS** » 08 Feb 2018 16:37

There's always been a high price to pay for hesitant, indecisive and fearfull foreign policy. And Indian record has been ridddled with these attributes. By contrast, consider the self-confidence, not to say hubris, of China. And why not? They have been running the table with us, not only on the North-Eastern, or Northern border, but generally, even in the Indian ocean region that we thought we had settled in.
The recent crisis has been in the making for years, we chose to ignore it when it could have been solved without requiring any drastic measures. This is the template China has been following ,first come with economic route then take over the political class then military pact and then show the middle finger to India. This will continue unless we act decisively now.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2018 17:25

ajit doval has vanished from the public eye over the last 1 year after being very public in his initial phase.

if RAW + NSA do not alert and brief the PM, none will.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Feb 2018 17:47

The Chin puppet has just sent envoys to Soothi Barbaria, F*kistan and China to garner their support for his regime.Pointedly , no one sent to India.Yameen is sticking his finger right up India's backside and we are....taking it like a docile servant.The matter is now to bd discussed at the UN where the Sec- Gen has already urged Yameen to withdraw the emergency and release prisoners.Fat chance of that happening. We have the Kashmir issue as an example for the outcome, which Panditji asininely took there to be cheated by the West.He later wrote bitterly to his sister Mrs.Pandit what a mistake he had made and how the West had tricked him.

Meanwhile our FM is in Barbaria opening some pavilion at an expo there while the PM is on his 4 nation Gulfie trip.
Nothing will happen methinks.The Modi regime has succumbed to the Maldivian despot and appears no better than snake-oil Singh in dealing with India's security.If India does nothing it will be the greatest humiliation for India since '62.At least in '62 our soldiers fought a superior and far better equipped force to the death.Here we have bunkered down without a shot being fired.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 08 Feb 2018 17:51

Modi is new socialist Nehru in nationalist coat with pinned lotus. Kashmir redux.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Feb 2018 17:56

Seems Yameen has fingered some folks more than Modi or India for that matter but each to his own ...

On an unrelated note
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/india-r ... picks=true
'Hurt' Maldives Says India Was Offered First Visit By Envoy, Said Not Now

But I tell you .... RAW/IB, Devil and Mudi are a total fail

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 08 Feb 2018 19:41

Let's not jump to conclusions yet.

Either Yameen and his Chinese friends planned these shenanigans to take place just when all the key folks on the Indian side were travelling (unlikely in my opinion), or India has formulated a policy that involves "no talking till you reinstate democracy". Hence the rejection of the envoy's visit.

Now it remains to be seen if:

1) there is any military component to India's response, and

2) the envoy visits to China, Pawkeeland, and Saudi turn into pretexts for these countries (esp. China) to send a military presence "upon request".

We do not fully know what presence India has there right now. There were a few posts from "pushkar.bhat" about this.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Feb 2018 21:58

KL Dubey, I think its the latter.

India doesn't appear to use military option as its like the US invading Grenada.

A sledge hammer to swat a gnat.

However China wants India to use force as that will destroy the bonhomie after the 10 ASEAN leaders at R Day as guests.
And reemergence of regional bully rhetoric.

Also this Yameen guy has one more year to go for elections.
His jailing opposition and judges is very Paki like.

Unless there is crackdown on civilians leading to law and order I don't see prospects.

And sanctions are an option.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 08 Feb 2018 22:04

That seems to be the case. NSA is not dumb guy. It is a very calculated move. Modi Ji is cool as cucumber and not saying a single word (despite all provocations as escalations). En plus he is embarking at videsh yatra.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 08 Feb 2018 22:27

I think from now onwards until election in 2019, it will be a roller coaster ride.

We can expect all kinds of games like these being played all those anti-Modi with enthusiastic help from our own congress scamsters... whether it is Pak, china or xtian\Islamic fanatics.

Even though I'm disappointed that Maldives play is not in our favour. I have 100 times more faith in Modi-Doval duo than anyone waiting and hoping to fill those seats from the opposing camp. I doubt anyone else can do better than these guys.

So, I will wait and see.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Feb 2018 23:01

Famous saying."Opportunity knocks but once".I anticipate thousands of Chinese "workers" entering the Maldives very soon to "work " on the numerous projects handed over to them by Yameen.They may also be accompanied by troops to protect them.Fait accomi, Modi and co. up the creek without a paddle.In fact ASEAN is looking hard at this crisis to see whether India can walk the talk.

"If you sit on the fence for too long, the spear goes up your a*se!" Another famous saying.

All China or Pak for that matter separately or together, have to do is to fly in troops in civvy airliners to secure the airport, at the invitation of the president and what would be our response? F- all. Every hour that we dilly- dally we lose the initiative and inevitably the battle.Some may say what about support for Chin troops? The distance to Chin is so great.Sorry, the distance to China is Karachi.Pak is a Chin satellite! Moreover, with Chinese troops in the atolls protecting their thousands of nationals there imagine the hesitation magnus in Lutyens Bagh by our MEA mice and the great fear of a wider conflict by other scaredy cats in South Block.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 08 Feb 2018 23:18

ramana wrote:KL Dubey, I think its the latter.

India doesn't appear to use military option as its like the US invading Grenada.

A sledge hammer to swat a gnat.

However China wants India to use force as that will destroy the bonhomie after the 10 ASEAN leaders at R Day as guests.
And reemergence of regional bully rhetoric.

Also this Yameen guy has one more year to go for elections.
His jailing opposition and judges is very Paki like.

Unless there is crackdown on civilians leading to law and order I don't see prospects.

And sanctions are an option.

Nah - can't agree. On the contrary, ASEAN will be very encouraged by real action from India (I hope it is coming). Bonhomie is mainly talk, but action is the walk. Having failed to keep the Chinese off the Spratly islands despite their "friend" the US being present in the Pacific, ASEAN would be very happy that the Indian Ocean is a different story.

"Sanctions" seem to be the worst option, since the Chinese will not participate and will be supplying the islands. Same thing with blockades of airspace or ports - if a third-party challenger appears on the scene then one has to escalate. The only real options seem to be:

1) Spook this moron Yameen to reinstate democracy and free political prisoners. This seems unlikely to work and is a rather lame option, since it leaves the larger issue (i.e. long-term strategic control over the islands) open-ended.

2) Have boots on the ground to eject him and his cronies from the government, free the prisoners. Install a new government. Have a treaty that grants lease of certain islands to India for military purposes and excludes any other countries from building any large-scale infrastructure without Indian permission.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Feb 2018 23:31

India is angry at the subversion of governance norms and rules in Maldives by President Yameen

India refused a request by Maldives government to send a special envoy to the country in the middle of the ongoing unrest in the island nation+ that has drawn huge international criticism.

The Yameen Abdul Gayoom government on Thursday announced that it had sent special envoys to three "friendly countries" — China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, as the unrest deepened in Maldives.

Questioned about the absence of India in the list, Maldives envoy Ahmed Mohamed told TOI, "India was in fact the first stop planned and proposed for a visit of a special envoy of the President of Maldives. We asked for a visit on February 8. However, the dates proposed was not suitable for the Indian leadership."

A statement from the Maldives embassy here said, "The first stop of special envoy of the President was India. Foreign Minister of Maldives Dr. Mohamed Asim, the designated Special envoy of the President was scheduled for 8th February 2018, to India but the visit was cancelled on the request of the Government of India."

Sources in the Indian government confirmed that a request for a special envoy's visit was made on February 7. "With external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj in Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Narendra Modi Modi leaving for a 3-nation tour, we had scheduling difficulties."

Sources in the Indian government confirmed that a request for a special envoy’s visit was made on February 7
According to sources, India is angry at the subversion of governance norms and rules in Maldives by President Yameen
India, sources said, has “not seen any real action on the concerns stated by the international community and India"

May be some of the answers in the above why India is not behaving like a bully.
Curious about the timing and NaMo tours.

(provided the msm is telling the truth)

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Feb 2018 23:38

Bummer title- India may send troops to the island

The current crisis has erupted after Supreme Court of Maldives ordered last week that regime of President Abdullah Yameen should release the nine opposition leaders including former president Mohammed Nasheed who are in exile in Colombo.

India is keeping a close watch on developments in the Maldives, our island neighbour and Indian army have been told to remain on standby to ensure the deployment at short notice. But, for those who don’t know about the history of Maldives-India’s relations, if India asserts military intervention in the Maldives, this won’t be for the first time.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Feb 2018 23:45

Indias-insular-dilemma-Maldives
by Admiral Arun Prakash Retd

Given India’s self-assigned role of regional “net security provider”, the Integrated Defence Staff, in New Delhi, must be reviewing their plans for launching what they term an out of area contingency (OOAC) operation, at short notice. Should our military be called upon to render assistance to the Republic of Maldives, this will certainly not be for the first time.

But India needs to tread with extreme caution in this sensitive area because the developments, so far, in the Maldives are a domestic issue and remain within the ambit of the nation’s “internal affairs”. Both conventional wisdom and recent experience confirm that foreign-imposed regime changes, overt or covert, are doomed to failure. They not only fail to attain the objectives for which they are undertaken, i.e., improvement in bilateral relations, but invariably lead to domestic resentment and bitter opposition to the foreign-imposed leader. India needs to wait and watch how the Maldivian public and world opinion react to developments, before deciding its course of action.

(excellent write up)

What also needs to be kept in mind is a Chinese statement on Wednesday indirectly cautioning India against intervening in the Maldives, saying any outside “interference” in the country’s political crisis would “complicate” the situation. China also denied allegations that Maldivian President Abdullah Yameen had its backing and said Beijing follows the principles of non-interference in other countries’ domestic affairs.

India, apparently, started to lose the plot in the Maldives in 2012, when the Male airport modernisation contract with the Indian infrastructure giant GMR was aborted by the Maldivian government, which then handed over the project to a Chinese company. Although the subsequent arbitration tribunal held that the agreement was wrongfully repudiated by Maldives, India lost both “face” and influence in the island nation. The resignation of President Nasheed, under duress, the same year, caught India napping and coincided with the substantive rise of Chinese leverage in Maldives. This must be considered yet another failure of Indian diplomacy in our neighbourhood.

As a post-script, a few statistics related to “time and space” may provoke some thought amongst both Maldivian and Indian decision-makers; not just in the immediate context, but also from a long-term “realpolitik” viewpoint. From Male, the nearest Chinese port, Haikou (Hainan), is 2,700 miles as the crow flies and 3,400 miles by sea. An aircraft would take 7-8 hours to cover this distance, overflying three countries, and a ship would take 8-10 days to reach Male. Compare this to the flying time of just over an hour, and sailing time of a little over 24 hours to cover the 500 miles between Male and the nearest Indian port/airport of Kochi.

Guess India closely monitoring the situation. If crisis erupts , probably India will make the move if it goes beyond domestic political squabbling etc.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 09 Feb 2018 00:15

krisna wrote: Guess India closely monitoring the situation. If crisis erupts , probably India will make the move if it goes beyond domestic political squabbling etc.

This is how China, the US, or Russia would do it - they wouldn't sit around saying "if crisis erupts." They'd make the crisis erupt. Spook some lone army guards into opening fire on some shadow threat, make it erupt into a shooting match, then say "OMG, they're killing their opposition and Supreme Court judges now! We have no choice but to move in and restore order!" With the open opposition invitation, it would be enough of a pretext.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 09 Feb 2018 01:25

Knowing Modi, he is supposed to do homework before venturing into Maldives. If we get statements from the Gulf countries that Modi is visiting now that reflect India's concerns regarding Maldives developements, take it as an indication that India may do something. Otherwise, we need to mark this as another opportunity lost by us.

Hope Modi is able to muster international opinion towards intervention in Maldives (its not easy to walk into what is purely an internal affair of a country without any well acknowledged humanitarian considerations such as mass murders or refugee problem.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 09 Feb 2018 01:54

schinnas wrote:
Hope Modi is able to muster international opinion towards intervention in Maldives (its not easy to walk into what is purely an internal affair of a country without any well acknowledged humanitarian considerations such as mass murders or refugee problem.

How's this for international acknowledgment?

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=58550

Maldives: Democracy under ‘all-out assault,’ warns UN rights chief

7 February 2018 – The declaration of the state of emergency in the Maldives by President Abdulla Yameen and the resulting suspension of constitutional guarantees have undermined the checks and balances necessary in any functioning democracy, the United Nations human rights chief warned Wednesday.

“The suspension of several functions of the judiciary and Parliament, and the restrictions on a series of constitutional rights, create a dangerous concentration of power in the hands of the President,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said in a statement release by his Office (OHCHR).

The state of emergency, which allows a government to perform actions normally not permitted, was declared on 5 February in response to a Supreme Court order to release and retry nine political leaders, and to reinstate 12 suspended opposition parliamentarians.

Effective, for 15 days, the emergency declaration suspended Parliament’s authority to remove the President and the top court’s jurisdiction to determine disputes concerning removal of the President. In addition, the entire criminal procedure code has been suspended.

“President Yameen has, to put it bluntly, usurped the authority of the State’s rule-of-law institutions and its ability to work independently from the executive,” Mr. Zeid said.

“The Maldives have seen in recent years attacks on political opponents, on journalists, on civil society and human right defenders, and what is happening now is tantamount to an all-out assault on democracy,” he warned.

Former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was arrested on charges, including attempting the overthrow of the Government, and two Supreme Court judges, including the chief justice, have also been detained.

Following the arrest of the two judges, the remaining three judges on Tuesday overturned the Court’s previous unanimous ruling ordering the release and retrial of the nine political leaders.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Feb 2018 02:27

Look how Putin seized the Cr5imea.Referendum there in favour of rejoining Russia and before you could say "ra ra Rasputin" ,Putin's little green men were in.......Fait accompli.No amount of gnashing and wailing in Kiev and cries of "foul!" from the West mattered to Moscow.
He's also at record speed building a bridge from Russian territory to the Crimea to avoid logistic supplies going through eastern UKR.Added to that has been the beefing up of the Black Sea fleet with extra subs and warships being sent there to maintain the Ru dominance of the Black Sea by the fleet.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Feb 2018 03:47

Invite the dictator for an Ophishial vijit and provide an AI Boeing 747 to bring his entire cabinet and military top brass.
As the 747 takes off, the C-17 and An-12 can come from the other end of the runway..

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 09 Feb 2018 04:05

^^how about a C130 Super hercules to bring them here. C17 line is already closed

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Feb 2018 04:14

rsingh, SL->Maldives->who knows?

SiddharthS · Post by **SiddharthS** » 09 Feb 2018 05:04

The point is, it's not going to go beyond domestic political squabling. That's the job of Indian intelligence agencies, to bang few heads and give India a rationale to enter and depose yameen, Sign the defense pact with a new puppet, flood the island with Intelligence operatives and establish a permanant naval base.

While i like Admiral Prakash, the more one listens to him, the more his Foreign policy suggestions sound hesitant and fearfull. He was also against Admiral Joshi's 'standard rules of engagement' warrning to china. The last paragraph shows how relax he is, the idea that China could not come to Maldivian aid before India is to underestimate the Chinese resolve to take over Indian ocean.

While he's partly right about the regime change, there are different factors that decide the success of that as Victor hansen pointed out. There exist plenty of successful regime changes, the unsuccessful ones mainly include the Islamic countries. Maldives is a small country, far away from the middle east, cut-off the saudi religious funding and you've already taken care of large percentage of the problem, the rest of it can be taken care of by the intelligence operatives.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 09 Feb 2018 05:32

I think the key point here is that the pain threshold hasn't been reached in Male. No one has died, no mass riots and even demonstrations have been competing goon squads between Yameen and Nasheed supporters. If things heat up substantially, then I think more options are on the table. I think that's why there's a wait and see approach. In 1988, these other elements were in place and an attempted coup was in progress. That hasn't happened......yet.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 09 Feb 2018 05:45

schinnas wrote:Hope Modi is able to muster international opinion towards intervention in Maldives (its not easy to walk into what is purely an internal affair of a country without any well acknowledged humanitarian considerations such as mass murders or refugee problem.

I thought we were allies of the west! Is the US not looking to "help" India become a great power? Is the US not looking to stall the growth of PLAN in IOR? Well, what do great powers do? They break a few eggs first and the eggs can be served any style and presented to the world. But break the eggs to eat, we must or someone else will eat our lunch. It is futile to talk of international law et al with those who have no value for it, it is loser talk.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Feb 2018 07:15

seems to me that chinese advisors are already onsite at their consulate, coaching yameen on how to handle this while flying below radar of red flags like crushing visible protests etc. with only male to control, its not tough. population 1.5 lakh jammed into a small area.

we lost the plot long ago and defeat is staring us in face.

ASEAN will be

at all talk of india being a security provider in IOR

a high decibel ODS 91 type campaign with short deadlines or else was the minimum our MEA could have done to set the ladder, but we are busy negotiating with arabs for cheaper oil and more jobs.

behold the self proclaimed security czar of the IOR - always worried if our backsides smell of roses or not. how dharmic

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 09 Feb 2018 07:24

ShauryaT wrote:
schinnas wrote:Hope Modi is able to muster international opinion towards intervention in Maldives (its not easy to walk into what is purely an internal affair of a country without any well acknowledged humanitarian considerations such as mass murders or refugee problem.
I thought we were allies of the west! Is the US not looking to "help" India become a great power? Is the US not looking to stall the growth of PLAN in IOR? Well, what do great powers do? They break a few eggs first and the eggs can be served any style and presented to the world. But break the eggs to eat, we must or someone else will eat our lunch. It is futile to talk of international law et al with those who have no value for it, it is loser talk.

US and west are capable of breaking few eggs. The question is have we cultivated enough ground workers in countries of interest to break a few eggs whenever we need it.

Given that the opposition is asking for us to intervene, we should be able to leverage them to break a few eggs. I hope we have already sent a plane load of right people in plain clothes thru commercial planes already.

We need more international condemnation noises now.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 09 Feb 2018 07:34

Anant wrote:I think the key point here is that the pain threshold hasn't been reached in Male. No one has died, no mass riots and even demonstrations have been competing goon squads between Yameen and Nasheed supporters. If things heat up substantially, then I think more options are on the table. I think that's why there's a wait and see approach. In 1988, these other elements were in place and an attempted coup was in progress. That hasn't happened......yet.

There is no 'official' threshold. It's the one you define. If you don't have balls then you keep making thresholds or take high moral ground.

Just like kashmir these blunders going to haunt our coming generations in this 21st century.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 09 Feb 2018 07:53

The scenario that led to op cactus , eg Tamil mercenaries etc can not be compared to the present situation , actually it's not even a coup. 1988 foreign mercenaries attacked an elected government and India intervened when explicitly asked for help.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 09 Feb 2018 08:04

Precisely my point Shaun. Thank you!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Feb 2018 08:05

the dog and pony show of dictatoriship is just cover for chinese to cement their role as a patron and protector.
they might even have goaded yameen into it, knowing the fallout of isolation and need for money.
they give a s*** over which despot rules the little rocks, so long as they have a base and future ELINT post.

yet we still continue to delude ourselves and try to hoodwink our citizens that this vera of seven veils show is the reality, not the puppetmaster behind the green door

we should have warned cheen loudly and taken over in 2012 itself, now they have become bolder and better armed.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 09 Feb 2018 08:09

shaun wrote:The scenario that led to op cactus , eg Tamil mercenaries etc can not be compared to the present situation , actually it's not even a coup. 1988 foreign mercenaries attacked an elected government and India intervened when explicitly asked for help.

We have been explicitly asked by an democratically elected but forced to exiled prime minister to intervene. Their SC asked for our help before they were detained. ab kya unko khud ghar ake invitation card dena chahiye? (do you want an invitation card personally delivered at your doorstep?). And, now what we should say to their population? 'boss, invitation shinvitation okay but unless you start killing each other we don't want to intervene'.. then if they riot then we will say 'boss, riots okay but unless some outsider come and kill you we will not intervene'

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 09 Feb 2018 08:26

Singha wrote:the dog and pony show of dictatoriship is just cover for chinese to cement their role as a patron and protector.
they might even have goaded yameen into it, knowing the fallout of isolation and need for money.
they give a s*** over which despot rules the little rocks, so long as they have a base and future ELINT post.

yet we still continue to delude ourselves and try to hoodwink our citizens that this vera of seven veils show is the reality, not the puppetmaster behind the green door

we should have warned cheen loudly and taken over in 2012 itself, now they have become bolder and better armed.

. India's intervention will attract casualties with armed forces of both side. There will be condemnation both in domestic and international level with out any long time tangible benefits . Chinese have monies to throw which we can never compete. Say democracy returns , than what ?? Few years from now there will be "sell out " again. The best way is to deal with them diplomatically, like we ignored their envoy , UN with International community putting pressure and once the crisis over with opposition intact , help their institutions and judiciary stronger and robust enough to deter such moves and finally we have to invest , invest a lot if we have to compete with lizard.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Feb 2018 08:36

I agree with Shaun ... The current situation is not comparable to operation cactus.

Now we take over Maldives but what about Sri Lanka or Nepal or Bangladesh? After all we have already seen anti-Indian government/politician take control in Nepal. What about Sri Lanka where the current regime, which ~~sold~~ leased the port to the Chinese and is likely to be replaced by a very pro-China regime in the near future?

This *present* situation in Maldives needs to be resolved internally. I am comfortable with Chinese presence in Maldives and even a Chinese base. I for one don't fear a Chinese base in Maldives as opposed to say one in Chittagong. Hambantota is a bigger threat and Gwadar represents the biggest problem as far as my understanding goes.