Maldives Civil-Military Issues

[kit]

Let me hazard a *guess* based on what has happened, what has been reported and GOI's radio silence.

I think Indian Navy is out and around Maldives with some strength while still maintaining some distance to give a look of normalcy in the region. It is in a position to quickly insert itself into the situation and clean up the mess before anyone can even attempt to seize the initiative e.g. China.

Precisely my thinking ..the IN with its commandos are within shooting distance of the Maldives to " discourage" any "other" foreign intervention . The US knows that ..and China knows it

[kit]

and the waiting is just to " cook" up the temperatures inside to the right shade

[Philip]

Yes there are 100+ ways in which the Maldivian polecat can be skinned,but a long siege gives openings for mischief from our mortal enemies who methinks doth
protest too much against the emergency! Both bandicoots pay scant respect for human rights and democracy in their lands and are trying to portray themselves as upstanding members of the international order, a colossal and outrageous joke.

This abomination ,where Pak is the epi-centre of Islamic terror and China a vast concentration camp supporting the polecat in secret against India in concert must be neutered.

India has not exercised any " realpolitik " in its strategic affairs since Op.Cactus.Even during Kargil the armed forces were told not to cross the Paki border at all despite POK belonging to us.To have this insidious situ festering in our backwaters ad nauseam with us only watching and expecting the fruit to fall off the branch by itself is being optimistic in the extreme and unrealistic.We have to then covertly orchestrate events within the country to ensure regime change and its dangerous pro- Chinese foreign policy.This is like trying to pass a camel through the proverbial needle when the entire Oppn. is incarcerated in prison along with dissenting judges, etc.

[ashish raval]

We need atleast 50 garrison like floating platforms dotted along Indian ocean region with helo landing facilities and powerful sonar's underwater listening and sniffing out Chinese sub in entire ior region and equip it with torpedo launchers and submarine hunting helos. We can propose this solution to quad and asean and have a contributory fund to develop it. We can also use this platforms to have powerful missile defense radars in the region.
Each platforms costs 100 to 300 million and 5-10 percent of capital cost to run it.
Maldives will be rendered useless and let them all go to China or massage Chinese bu#£s visiting their enunciated water world.

Engineering challenge worth a think.

[anupmisra]

This is a two part posting which might explain currently what's going on and why it's happening in Maldives.

China rebukes Nasheed over Maldives land grab claims

Nasheed last month told reporters the Asian giant was on a shopping spree in the Maldives.

“Buying up our islands, buying up our key infrastructure, and effectively buying up our sovereignty. This land grab is very worrying.”

“These allegations are absolutely nonsense,” said foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang

“China offers its assistance to the Maldives with no political strings attached. There is no way that such assistance will impair Maldives’ sovereignty and independence, not to mention undermining the security of the Indian Ocean region.”

The constitution previously prohibited foreign ownership of any part of Maldivian territory but was changed in 2015.

http://maldivesindependent.com/politics ... ims-135753

Meanwhile, back in 2017:

India raises concerns over Maldives island sold to China firm

India has expressed concerns over the sale of Kaafu atoll Feydhoo Finolhu island to a Chinese firm.

selling an island nearest to the capital island and main airport of the Maldives might have a negative effect on the strategic interests of India

The Maldives Government has not yet disclosed the name of the Chinese company to which which Feydhoo Finolhu was sold for USD 4 million for a period of 50 years. Not sold but leased! G'wadar has been leased for 40 years!

Feydhoo Finolhu and 10 other Islands and a lagoon near Huvafenfushi Resort were included in the government’s list to be sold without bid. Feydhoo Finolhu was initially to be sold at a price of USD 3 million.

India had previously expressed concern over the increasing influence of China in the Maldives. Heavy criticisms have been aimed at the many ongoing projects which were kicked off with financial assistance provided by China.

Conversely, others have stated that the Maldives cannot only wait for India to provide fund for development projects.

Question is- why did India not preempt the bid process and acquire all the leases when it had the chance? India had the chance and blew it.

http://en.mihaaru.com/india-raises-conc ... hina-firm/

[anupmisra]

Feydhoo Finolhu is a 1 X 1 mile island directly adjacent to the main airport in Maldives. India had the chance to lease it but ignored the bid opportunity. The chinese saw a chance and stepped in, via a proxy company, and have acquired the 50 year lease for a song. Unless the Maldivian government reneges on the contract, it is fait accompli. India just blew a great, game changing opportunity.

Now the chinese will do a South China Sea by expanding the land mass of the island and set up listening posts in the guise of a "tourist" village.

Indian and US bases in that part of the Indian Ocean will be compromised.

[anupmisra]

This should explain the chini strategy.

The China-Maldives Connection

India’s influence in its neighborhood was dealt a stunning blow recently with Maldives entering into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China. The FTA, which was signed on December 8, 2017 during Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen’s four-day visit to Beijing, is Maldives’ first with any country. Maldives has become the second South Asian country after Pakistan to sign an FTA with China.

Maldives signed a Memorandum of Understanding that brings it into the Maritime Silk Road, a component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Feydhoo Finolhu is part of the so-called silk road initiative. This should be a valuable lesson for Indian bureaucrats, military leadership and political strategists. Do not take the smaller neighbors for granted.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/the-chi ... onnection/

[SSridhar]

One of the intents of MSR is to gobble up the small & vulnerable island-nations, make them a tribute to the Chinese hegemon. The situation in Maldives is a direct result of that. We will see similar situations in Seychelles & Sri Lanka later. Let's remember what happened in Nepal. But, at this point of time, it is the Indo-China Sea that is taking most of their attention. But, they are not neglecting the IOR. They are making the situation conducive now so that whenever they are able to provide a more significant attention, it would be a lot easier for them.

[ashish raval]

Feydhoo Finolhu is a 1 X 1 mile island directly adjacent to the main airport in Maldives. India had the chance to lease it but ignored the bid opportunity. The chinese saw a chance and stepped in, via a proxy company, and have acquired the 50 year lease for a song. Unless the Maldivian government reneges on the contract, it is fait accompli. India just blew a great, game changing opportunity.

Now the chinese will do a South China Sea by expanding the land mass of the island and set up listening posts in the guise of a "tourist" village.

Indian and US bases in that part of the Indian Ocean will be compromised.

Sirji the best they can do is listen. If they do anything more in event of war, Maldives will perish before global warming eats their water world and I hope they know that.

[UlanBatori]

I agree that building floating platforms is a better investment than Maldives / Seychelles etc. All those are going under with ocean level rise and increasing frequency of tidal waves. GREAT real estate deals I am sure, and they probably throw in a cool set of lifebelts plus a snorket kit to visit your former home in a few years.

[KL Dubey]

The lessons are indeed there for India, but I think the NDA goremint is trying to pick up the pieces after 10 years of UPA. I think there is a thought out strategy that is playing out behind the scenes. At the very least we can expect a more robust response and strategy from NaMo sarkar.

Imagine if Manmohtarma had been in office - even if this cheeky bugger Yameen followed up his shenanigans by personally calling Manmohtarma and giving him "maa-behen ki gaali" on the phone, I am sure he would still do absolutely nothing.

[Gagan]

You guys seem overly concerned about the wellness of the BJP, to the extent of putting down people who are looking at national interests.

Bart,
This is very unfair on your part. You know this is simply not true.
You are indulging in unnecessary innuendo here.

One does not need to make a counterpoint for every point made by someone. Say what you have to, but don't ascribe motives and please don't indulge in hyperbole.

[Karthik S]

I am asking people to not jump to conclusions and type something out as a kneejerk reaction, blasting the government of the day, who IMHO is the best GoI one has had in several decades.


Again, I point out that there is a very critical difference between the ground situation during operation Cactus, and now. That difference is not being appreciated by people here. This will be made a political issue in India - one can bet that the Congress I will say - Rajiv Gandhi intervened and 56" did not. Are posters here posting stuff to prepare ground for such an effort back home hain ji?

No wonder Modi & Amit Shah have completely ignored the "Jingovaadi Hindu Nationalistic middle class" in their electioneering strategy. Even on BRF we repeatedly demonstrate how fickle, unreliable, eternally dissatisfied, childishly impatient, and hopelessly entitled we are. We are the Lehman Brothers of vote banks and every party knows it.

You guys seem overly concerned about the wellness of the BJP, to the extent of putting down people who are looking at national interests. No party is above the nation, they are just servants who are duty-bound to take national interests forward. Most posters who are upset already have a soft corner for the party in question, but are perfectly justified and correct in looking at national interests first and demanding that the GOI follow them, rather than looking out for the party in power and trying to make pseudo-chanakiyan excuses to protect the image of said party.

+1 Bart sir, the fact that this thread was started last Aug, when coup already happened, and until now nothing has been done so far shows the inept manner in which the govt has allowed the matter to reach this point. And we have chanakyan theories about 'radio silence' now from MAD.

[Gagan]

On a related topic, as I understand our Seychelles base on Assumption island is pretty well along in terms of infrastructure.

As for the two Mauritian islands (Agalega), I don't think any construction has started (?)

The Wikipedia page on Assumption island, Seychelles, has this:

Assumption Island has a small village, with about 20 people, on the sheltered western side, surrounded by Casuarina trees. An abandoned coconut palm plantation is just south of it. The island has a construction camp with about 50 people at the southern point of the airfield. All labor are from India.

[arshyam]

The Jingovaadi Disssatisfied - need to realize that Indian Navy is already there, and if needed can act.

Can you cite any evidence or sources for this? As far as we know so far it is just conjecture.

It's on open source itself, if only people were bothered to look, or investigate after a suggestion (I posted this as a q a week or so ago on this thread itself).

Emergency in Maldives, ex-President’s arrest add to India’s headache - By Sujan Dutta & Ramananda Sengupta | Express News Service | Published: 06th February 2018 06:15 AM

NEW DELHI: Four days after Maldives Supreme Court quashed the arrest of top political prisoners, the country was in turmoil on Monday with President Abdulla Yameen clamping 15-day emergency and arresting former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

From the Indian perspective, the current situation is framed by two recent developments. First, India’s near-permanent presence of a military (naval) detachment in the archipelago since 2016 (so much for Modi being a neo-Nehru), and second, a US-India logistics support agreement that was signed the same year to the chagrin of China.

Even in December, the US described India as the “regional stabilising force” in the Indian Ocean region. Last week the chief of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, described China at a dialogue in New Delhi as a “disruptive transitional force”.

The Maldivian President’s refusal to abide by its SC’s order undermines the country’s commitment to democracy, New Delhi assesses. Also, India believes that the Indian Ocean region is its navy’s area of responsibility and if it fails to keep peace in this region, its stature would be undermined.

Exactly 30 years ago when the then Maldivian Opposition sought to overthrow President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi ordered a military intervention named ‘Operation Cactus’. India airlifted 1,600 troops from its Agra-based 50 Independent Para Brigade (that reports directly to the army headquarters and not to a regional command) and two Indian warships that chased and intercepted a vessel with militants of the Sri Lanka-based Peoples’ Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam who were helping the Maldivian rebels.

A comparable military intervention today is difficult because of the changed geopolitics despite the Indian military presence. The western and eastern fleet of the Navy are currently engaged in exercises. Since April 2016, a Navy Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter MK III has remained deployed At Kadhdhoo Island in Laamu Atoll of the Maldives, said sources. In addition, the Navy’s aircraft and a frigate make weekly sorties to and over Maldivian waters at the request of the Maldivian National Defence Forces.

NEW DELHI IN A BIT OF A QUANDARY AS CRISIS DEEPENS

India has also been interested in setting up a base at the Addu Atoll that used to be home to a World War II airstrip of the British that was then named the RAF Gan. In 2009, then Indian Defence Minister A K Antony visited the island along with a high-level military delegation. Three years ago, India also gifted a fast-attack patrol boat, the INS Tillanchang, to the MNDF.

NEW DELHI ISSUES TRAVEL ADVISORY

After Maldivian President declared emergency, India on Monday asked its nationals to defer all non-essential travel to the country until further notice
The Foreign Office urged Indian expats to exercise due caution in public and avoid public gatherings

The near-permanent Indian military detachment in the Maldives has also meant that New Delhi has greater information on activity in the islands at its disposal. Since the narrow defeat of Mohammed Nasheed by the current President Abdulla Jameen Abdulla Yameen, there is suspicion that the ISIS was seeking to establish a presence in the far-flung but scantily-monitored islands of the country. There is also a belief that Yameen’s dispensation was planning to hand over infrastructure projects to the Chinese. An Indian firm’s contract to expand the airport near Male was cancelled.

It is therefore a sought-after listening post and potential replenishment base. The spiraling crisis in the Maldives, where President Yameen Abdul Gayoom locked down parliament and challenged a Supreme Court ruling which freed a group of imprisoned opposition leaders, has left New Delhi in a bit of a quandary, with the ministry of external affairs going into a “wait and watch” mode.

But bar a press release last week urging the government to abide by the ruling, New Delhi has refrained from further comment on the issue, even though the opposition leaders in the Maldives specifically named India in an open letter to the international community seeking help. “We request the international community, including India, Sri Lanka, the US, Britain, the EU... to do everything in their power to help return power to the people of the Maldives and restore democracy,” the statement read. New Delhi’s reticence stems from the fact the Maldives remains part of its “security grid” in Indian Ocean Region.

[KL Dubey]

Deleted...correct post below.

[KL Dubey]

The Wikipedia page on Assumption island, Seychelles, has this:

Assumption Island has a small village, with about 20 people, on the sheltered western side, surrounded by Casuarina trees. An abandoned coconut palm plantation is just south of it. The island has a construction camp with about 50 people at the southern point of the airfield. All labor are from India.

That was just the "Demographics" section of the page. Looks like you did not read/quote further. Also, much of the content was probably added years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assumption_Island

From the "Military" section (bolded parts selected by myself):

India has a military base on the island, and most of the population is composed of military personnel and supporting contractors. It includes both an air and naval base[12] and is located 3,915 km (2,433 mi) south-southwest of the southern tip of India (at Kanyakumari) is their first establishment on Seychelles and is a flexible forward hub that can facilitate a range of regional strategies. Local time is UTC+05:30 as is in India year-round (DST is not observed).[13] To the Indian government, Assumption Island was a prime territory for setting up a foreign military base. it is located far away from any potential threats, and is nearly uninhabited. The 7 villagers were given an option to stay on the island with restrictions or to be transferred to Astove Island, where the Indian government built 2 residential houses as per their agreement with Seychelles. By 2018, construction of all of the military buildings should be completed.

Naval Communication Station
A Base for Naval Communication was built in 2016[14][15]

Renovated airfield
In August 2015, India Army construction battalions arrived on Assumption to begin the construction of the communications station and to enlarge the airfield.[16]

Navy anchorage
The Indian government was given permission to dredge sand and build a new port instead of the ruined jetty on the island.[17][18][19] The goal is to have a deep-water pier, port facilities, maintenance buildings, terminal, clinic, fuel storage area, and billeting and messing facility for their personnel.

Finally, if the above are true, then the Google Maps satellite image for the island appears to be rather old.

[chetak]

This should explain the chini strategy.

The China-Maldives Connection

India’s influence in its neighborhood was dealt a stunning blow recently with Maldives entering into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China. The FTA, which was signed on December 8, 2017 during Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen’s four-day visit to Beijing, is Maldives’ first with any country. Maldives has become the second South Asian country after Pakistan to sign an FTA with China.

Maldives signed a Memorandum of Understanding that brings it into the Maritime Silk Road, a component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Feydhoo Finolhu is part of the so-called silk road initiative. This should be a valuable lesson for Indian bureaucrats, military leadership and political strategists. Do not take the smaller neighbors for granted.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/the-chi ... onnection/

People are naive if they think that the hans are in maldives for commercial considerations.

The Indian initiative of the airport in the maldives was scuttled by the new president and the maldives govt reneged on the legal deal. lanka also put herself in a virtually similar position and went against India knowing that the vital interests of India were being severely compromised. There was massive bribery involved in both cases and the chinese acted against Indian interests with the active cooperation of both these countries.

The same scuttled maldivian airport deal was then given immediately to a chinese company, so the entire episode was not as innocent as it may seem. India did try but involved a corrupt and greedy and immoral and shady "business" house.

The centuries of so called close ties of civilization and culture, between these guys and India, simply evaporated in the face of presidential greed and self interest.

Unlike the authoritarian hans, India can only go so far, being a democracy and accountable in parliament to the people of the country. Our hands are tied by the very freedoms that we profess.

The government of the Maldives has paid US$271million in damages to Indian infrastructure firm, GMR, for the abrupt termination of a lucrative contract to develop and manage the country’s main airport.

Attorney General Mohamed Anil said that the state-owned Maldives Airports Company Ltd had settled the payment on Tuesday without drawing on the state budget.

Former President Mohamed Nasheed, whose government signed the contract with GMR in 2011, subsequently condemned his successor, Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan, for terminating the deal against international law in a Twitter post. Waheed responded by defending the move as “the right decision for the Maldives.”

smaller countries are being purchased by china and there is nothing that India can do to guard against such insidious threats, so pious sentiments expressed that India has ignored its options or ignored its neighbors is a fallacy.

There is no defence against bribery. Even a regime change will not work because the hans will bribe the changed/new regime too.

our own baboo(n)s are a glaring example of this phenomena. Whoever is in charge in dilli is immaterial, these scum will take bribes and the govt will be blamed for their actions, even though the govt may not be involved.

[KL Dubey]

The goremint (NDA versus UPA) makes a large difference which is obvious to all except an oblivious (or stubborn) few:

https://thewire.in/222646/i-dont-expect ... t-nasheed/

Though ranged against Yameen today, New Delhi has remained a bit wary of Nasheed mainly, due to two issues – the opening of a Chinese embassy in Male in 2011, and his position at the 2010 Copenhagen climate change summit.

MDP sources have pointed out that Maldives had already opened an embassy in Beijing in 2006 and it was difficult to keep at bay the Chinese request due to the diplomatic protocol of reciprocity. The former Maldivian president had also indicated that New Delhi had not been very clear about its opposition to China in those years. “The clarity with which India has stood against China is very recent. At least for us,” he said candidly during a meeting in Colombo.

[chetak]

The goremint (NDA versus UPA) makes a large difference which is obvious to all except an oblivious (or stubborn) few:

https://thewire.in/222646/i-dont-expect ... t-nasheed/

Though ranged against Yameen today, New Delhi has remained a bit wary of Nasheed mainly, due to two issues – the opening of a Chinese embassy in Male in 2011, and his position at the 2010 Copenhagen climate change summit.

MDP sources have pointed out that Maldives had already opened an embassy in Beijing in 2006 and it was difficult to keep at bay the Chinese request due to the diplomatic protocol of reciprocity. The former Maldivian president had also indicated that New Delhi had not been very clear about its opposition to China in those years. “The clarity with which India has stood against China is very recent. At least for us,” he said candidly during a meeting in Colombo.

nasheed is a self serving ahole, who expects and demands that India help him get his testimonials out of the fire.

not much to choose between the two "presidents", the ex and the incumbent.

desert is as desert does.

and both are cheeni pasand.

one overtly and the other covertly han inclined.

[pankajs]

That is the reason why India is letting the internal situation play itself out ...

[chetak]

That is the reason why India is letting the internal situation play itself out ...

here is the devious bugger specifically asking for Indian boots on the ground and yet he now denies that he did so.

Mohamed Nasheed‏Verified account @MohamedNasheed

On behalf of Maldivian people we humbly request:
1. India to send envoy, backed by its military, to release judges & pol. detainees inc. Prez. Gayoom. We request a physical presence.
2. The US to stop all financial transactions of Maldives regime leaders going through US banks.

10:14 PM - 5 Feb 2018

[SSridhar]

It is simply unwise to expect a country not to have diplomatic relationship with China; to hold that against Nasheed is churlish IMO. It was a miracle that we could force Maldives not to have any diplomatic relationship until c. 2006. But, it was likely to happen eventually. We have had overwhelming influence (and continue to do so; for example, Maldivians cannot afford to go to China for medical treatment) over Maldives, but have been steadily losing it politically. The story around our neighbourhood is the same. We will not be able to match China in the sinister ways it forays into IOR, but we must develop counter-strategies both here and in ICS-region. Statecraft is not for honest and weak-hearted people. It has to be ruthless. There must be a paradigm change in Indian foreign policy pursuit. We see it happening but events around us are happening at a terrific pace (West Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, ICS, Sri Lanka & Maldives) by the intervention of China and we have to shun our usual languid approach. Our MEA is woefully under-staffed to manage the emerging pace of activities.

[Karthik S]

It's not about helping Nasheed, it's for our own security that we can't allow maldives to become a cheen's mal. Flankers taking off from maldives can easily reach Chennai, Bangalore.

[chetak]

It's not about helping Nasheed, it's for our own security that we can't allow maldives to become a cheen's mal. Flankers taking off from maldives can easily reach Chennai, Bangalore.

Isn't it a little late in the day??

what were we doing all this while??

sleeping??

These guys are a malicious lot. They will betray you at the drop of a hat. The previous ahole has already done so and so has the incumbent one.

[pankajs]

Unless India plans to merge Maldives with India how do we plan to get a India centric regime in Maldives? Any guy who is installed following an Indian intervention is going to be looked at as an Indian stooge and that guy will do his best to get rid of that tag if he has to survive long in that country.

Lets assume that Flankers taking off from Maldives easily reach Chennai or Bangalore or Kochi, etc BUT what about the reverse? Can any flanker flying out of our multitude bases in south reach Male?

China will have multitude bases to deal with in India while India will have to deal with ONE base in Maldives. Is India that impotent?

Plus all Indian bases are backed by a vast hinterland. In any emergency Indian assets can be dispersed but where is the hinterland backing the Maldives? If you doubt this logic please consult the Bakis who have been trying to attain strategic dept with regards to India. They may be fools on many counts but this concern of theirs for strategic dept is valid.

BTW, this question of hinterland is very very important not just for the single reason stated above but to meet at least 3 other critical requirements. Bases for show is good but a base for operation especially sustained operation is a different ball game. That is why I would be more concerned with Hanbantota or Gwadar which provide adequate hinterland backing the bases. Even Gwadar fails on one criteria inspite of being backed by a vast hinterland and that makes it venerable to enemy action. [Hint: Both India and China had rushed to help Maldives out wrt a particular issue sometime in the last 2 years. That issue is relevant to Gwadar and Maldives but not Hambantota, at least not as far as I can tell but I haven't researched]

[Philip]

That is a fact.The UPA dropped the China ball when GMR got thrown out.The Chin argy-bargy in the Himalayas became serious in recent times after Modi came to power realising that India would get serious about its defence and security during his tenure.

Restoring democracy in the Maldives and establishing a binding security relationship with it, like we do with Mauritius and the Seychelles is the solution.But the window of opportunity is closing very fast.

[SSridhar]

Bases for show is good but a base for operation especially sustained operation is a different ball game. That is why I would be more concerned with Hanbantota or Gwadar which provide adequate hinterland backing the bases. Even Gwadar fails on one criteria and that makes it venerable to enemy action. [Hint: Both India and China had rushed to help Maldives out wrt a particular issue sometime in the last 2 years. That issue is relevant to Gwadar and Maldives but not Hambantota, at least not as far as I can tell but I haven't researched]

pankajs, In November 2014, the Namibian Times leaked an official Chinese report that talked of 18 foreign naval bases in such places as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Djibouti, Yemen, Oman, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Seychelles, Madagascar and Namibia.

If we take that report to be true (there could be a reason why an obscure Namibian Times was chosen to leak the report), Djibouti is the first of these bases recently commissioned. In early December 2015, China and Djibouti signed a 10-year lease agreement for the base that will hold 700 troops at any time for an annual rent of USD 100 million. In July last year, the base was officially opened. The others are at various stages of happening from the regular reports that we read. Therefore, the Namibian Times' report appears to be true.

These bases were categorized into three: a First Group consisting of Aden Port, Djibouti Port (both at Bab-el-Mandeb), and Salalah Port (Oman). These ports will be used only for logistics supply. Most of the 18 ports would naturally fall under this category. Logistics could also involve storage for ammunition. A Second group, meant for logistics supply plus naval personnel Rest & Recreation. Currently only Seychelles falls under this category. A Third Group which is meant for Logistics Supply, Rest & Recreation and Weaponry Repairing. Currently, only Gwadar falls under this category.

Hambanatota is meant for logistics only, particularly for fuelling. The Chinese firm, China Merchants Port Holdings, which would hold a 70% stake in the project for a 99-year lease, would handle all the port operations while security for the port would be provided by the Sri Lankan government.

[chetak]

That is a fact.The UPA dropped the China ball when GMR got thrown out.The Chin argy-bargy in the Himalayas became serious in recent times after Modi came to power realising that India would get serious about its defence and security during his tenure.

Restoring democracy in the Maldives and establishing a binding security relationship with it, like we do with Mauritius and the Seychelles is the solution.But the window of opportunity is closing very fast.

Mauritius and Seychelles have a large Indian component to their local populations and hence are more amenable to Indian overtures and sensibilities.

maldives is a 100% wahabi sunni operation and that too of mostly lankan origin.

Its a different kettle of fish

India will not be winning any popularity contests in the maldives. The relations, if any, are taqiyya dominated and meant to snare the gullible Hindus, while the maldivies plays the cheeni versus India game, just like they do in srilanka, both having completely and already prostituted themselves to the hans.

[SSridhar]

Restoring democracy in the Maldives and establishing a binding security relationship with it, like we do with Mauritius and the Seychelles is the solution.But the window of opportunity is closing very fast.

Philip, I agree with the window part.

But, on the 'security relationship' part, we have a deep relationship with Maldives already.

Indian Navy regularly conducts surveillance and does hydrographic tasks for Maldives. Maldives has also received two Dhruv advanced light weight helicopters, one Dornier patrol aircraft and surveillance radar from India. In addition to more Dhruvs and Dorniers, Maldives has sought fast-attack craft, amphibious landing craft and small arms from India. Maldives has also demanded India to train 40-60 officers of the Maldivian National Defence Force in Indian training establishments, which India accepted. Indian Army Chief Gen. Bikram Singh visited Maldives in May 2014 to discuss the naval dockyard project and also the sale of these equipment.

With the Maldives National Defence Forces (MNDF), India has been conducting an annual joint military exercise codenamed EKUVERIN, since 2009. The Dosti exercise was institutionalized between the Coast guards of India and Maldives in c. 1991. Sri Lankan Navy joined it in c. 2012. The Dosti series of exercises have become a regular feature among the three nations. This trilateral grouping of navies attends to piracy and other illegal activities. This trilateral grouping was extended in March 2014 by including Seychelles and Mauritius.

India offers medical assistance for MNDF personnel at its military establishments in India. India also deputes medical personnel of the Indian armed forces to MNDF medical establishment as well as training MNDF medical specialists in India, a training that goes back to 1988. India dispatches its naval assets and aircraft to patrol the Maldivian EEZ on a permanent basis. During the visit of the Maldivian Defence Minister to New Delhi in January, 2016, our Defence Minister, Manohar Parrikar assured Maldives of its continued commitment to further strengthen bilateral defence cooperation, ranging from training and joint combat exercises to help in maritime surveillance and supply of military equipment.

[pankajs]

Last post continued ...

The regime in Maldives should be make aware of our red lines in explicit terms and not any wishy-washy way and we need to exert out utmost to ensure that our redlines are taken into account always no matter who is in power.

That also means making an example out of those who flout our security concerns but if it can be achieved short of a military intervention nothing like it even if it take a bit longer to get it done.

I would prefer a low key but effective resolution to a flamboyant in your face/tech a lesson kind of intervention. While low key resolutions are not jingo friendly they work out better in the long-term because it allows face saving all around while not triggering resentment in the country at the receiving end.

Of course Military intervention remains on the table as the last option.

[SiddharthS]

You can not let the opponent occupy the squares(IOR states) in your side of the board(Indian Ocean). You have to occupy most(if not all) of the squares in your side of the board and then march towards the opponents side of the board(SCS). And start playing Go(Weiqi) there, occupy as many squares(ASEAN) around your opponent as you can, give him less room to manoeuvre which will imbibe insecurity and fear, It will cripple him and his posture will become hesitant, indecisive and defensive. Sometimes you'll have to play Go in your side of the board when someone(Diego Garcia,Djibouti,..) is already here.

You can not fight for India's security in Indian Ocean. You have to make Indian Ocean a safe zone and then challenge China in SCS, so that it is kept busy in its own backyard, giving it a less time to think about going outwards.


That is how you defeat the adversary without going to the war. Don't forget, this is precisely what china is doing.

[SSridhar]

. . .You can not fight for India's security in Indian Ocean. You have to make Indian Ocean a safe zone and then challenge China in SCS, so that it is kept busy in its own backyard, giving it a less time to think about going outwards.


That is how you defeat the adversay without going into the war. Don't forget, this is precisely what china is doing.

Siddharth, what you say applies as a long-term strategy, which is precisely what China is doing, as you say. But, it is doubtful if India had that kind of plan (in spite of our Look East policy stretching back to Narasimha Rao's days), though in the last eight years or so, we have been acting vigorously, particularly more so after Modi's ascent (and his Act East policy). However, the situation is acute now because Maldives is emerging as another Doka La (as the Chinese themselves pretentiously admit by saying that they are trying to prevent exactly such a situation). So, while long-term measures ought to be pursued (which both MMS & Modi governments have pursued vigorously) in ICS, the situation in IOR demands immediate action.

If we can do something in ICS to make China backoff, we should do so too.

India must seize the initiative because it is in its backyard. That's the only way to assert who exactly rules this part of the world.

[Deans]

There are precedents to justify a military intervention in the Maldives. Other countries have acted in a similar way when there was an unfriendly regime within its sphere of interest. The American invasion of Grenada & Panama. NATO's attack on Libya and Serbia, Russia's intervention in Crimea and East Ukraine.

There are also steps to be taken before any military intervention - which is a last step, if coercive diplomacy does not work. We have to issue a travel advisory as `Indian citizens are in danger' (which has also to be the pretext for intervention). Shipments to the Maldives and issuing of visas can be halted, while India `studies the situation'. Convey to the current regime (based on a consensus we obtain with US/EU/Japan) what our red lines are e.g. Free elections in X days, no foreign military bases. Commercial contracts to be honored etc.

[chetak]

just goes to show, how we are being undermined by the hans and the lankans

We should return the favor in the maldives


twitter

Aanmiga Arasiyal‏ @FCBtheChamps

IB detects Chinese+Srilankan hand in church fuelled protest against a port in Kanyakumari. The port is expected to reduce Tamil Nadu dependence on Sri Lankan ports controlled by the Chinese.

12:34 AM - 11 Feb 2018

[SiddharthS]

Many people here are stuck on the democracy. The goal is to have an India friendly regime approving Indian military base. Does it matter if it wasn't democratic? not really, would it be better if it was democratic? sure, but what if as the result of free and fair election Yameen gets re-elected , would that be acceptable? absolutely not.

Again, the vision dictates that we need an exclusive right to have a military base in that country. And if we want to go though democratic route then we should ensure that our interests are served properly. And for that to happen, in a democratic system, we have to flood the island with intelligence operatives, steer the elites and politicians toward our interest through appropriate means.

What so interesting about this crisis is the violence hasn't broken out yet - the pretext for Indian intervention. This leads me to postulate that, either we do not have a substantial intelligence presence, or the go ahead hasn't been given yet. And both of these do not bode well for the past and the present dispensation.

[Philip]

Yet, they plan to sell 16 islands to the Chinese.Sell not lease! China will have its footprint in the IOR belonging to it, sovereign soil.We are a bunch of sickening w* makers and I am afraid that our "emperor" wears no clothes.He is allowing the situ to drift in the hope that something will happen.Thete is no depth or deep strategy in the MEA/ security establishment at face value.Pak continues to kill our soldiers through jihadist, China continues to scotch in our territory , plan to establish a sovereign base in our backwaters and a pipsqueak tinpot tyrant show oidi the upturned finger.So much for our great nuclear wannabes (paper) power.

[Philip]

To the best of my knowledge after Mani Dixit left for his heavenly abode, we have not had a great grand strategist
in our establishment.KS also departed some time ago , before him was GP, Mrs.G's point man for crises.Our former envoy to Pak , the other GP is also a fine thinker.Our current NSA has a great reputation as an operative.

Statecraft is the other side of the coin.In recent years our diplomacy under the UPA left a lot to be desired.We had pink weaklings occupying such an important post.SMK for instance.Hardly seen, hardly heard.In the context of the Maldives it is imperative that India establishes a Pax Indica in the IOR where a littoral nation's s territory cannot be alienated to an external power let alone our most powerful mortal enemy China. A dictatorial regime cannot earn respect from its people and deals madexwith such people seldom get popular approval.See how Premadasa do everything in his power to squash the Indo- Lanka agreement that RG and JRJ signed, even to the extent of orchestrating riots against it.

We have to swiftly act to put our legitimate interests
Into fruition

[Pulikeshi]

Will one of the jeengovaadin please explain why US being in Diego Garcia is ok, but China being (potentially) in Maldives not ok for India?
Also, the US has no concerns with a Chinese (potential) base right next door? What no noise from the US about any of this - seems weird no?

[kit]

just goes to show, how we are being undermined by the hans and the lankans

We should return the favor in the maldives


twitter

Aanmiga Arasiyal‏ @FCBtheChamps

IB detects Chinese+Srilankan hand in church fuelled protest against a port in Kanyakumari. The port is expected to reduce Tamil Nadu dependence on Sri Lankan ports controlled by the Chinese.

12:34 AM - 11 Feb 2018

that port if it comes will route the massive Indian cargo traffic away from Colombo .. and the bigger it becomes Colombo will get smaller .. SL doesnt like it ..China doesn't for obvious reasons