Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Some economic history. Data from the Maddison Project
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Bart S »

kit wrote:
nam wrote:The biggest items Chini export are PCs/tablet/phones, earphones, heaters etc. Fundamentally commodity items nothing high profile. We need to grab this market.
Here are my export areas which we can do.

1.Commodity hardware exports
2.Private industry led Arms manufacturing
3. Private industry Ship building
4. Train coach manufacturing
5. If possible supply chain for civilian Aircraft from Boeing+ Airbus. Need to use our market size to force these duo to make part of aircraft here.

We have usual BPO+IT, Pharma & Cars. Should help us cross that 10 trillion magic figure.
If we tax the components coming from China will that help in localized production ? .. much like how the cell phone production went up ?
For electronics industry, depends on what you mean by components. Some we already are, like PCBs etc, giving results. Lower level components need to be handled over time and carefully, perhaps with focussed local R&D and incentives rather than just duties, or it could end up killing higher level manufacturing/assembly operations. A major push towards electronics R&D and design skills will be very productive, as that is what generates IP and is higher value/margin, and inevitably results in NPI type ecosystem along with local production if properly incentivized. The whole competitiveness of Shenzhen comes from the fact that they not only have factories but now have design skills too so companies like Anker etc who basically make simple but good products are now world leaders.

In other areas, we need to move industries that make low-end items that we import from China away from cottage industry/SSI mode to large scale industry participation. It's the only way we can compete with them. For example Reliance is into manufacturing fabrics, and also retailing them (apart from footwear) in a big way. But they have no incentive to participate in the garment industry that can employ many more millions, because it is skewed in favour of smaller units regulations-wise. If companies like those are asked to set up large scale units across the country we can not only beat China at that but also leave Ban/SL etc way behind. Companies like Bajaj and Wipro have brand reputation in India and can easily engineer and locally manufacture quality basic appliances but choose instead to stamp their name on cheap imports from China. Something is wrong there, needs to be fixed and they should instead be flooding overseas markets and competing with Chinese goods. Needs focussed attention from the GOI, deregulation, and perhaps kicking some butts, it's not going to happen by just letting things drift. A simple rule like making labeling of the country of origin/manufacture on all products sold online (and elsewhere for that matter) doesn't get implemented. Half the stuff one buys on Amazon these days (even from "Indian" brands like Milton) are Chinese.

There is also no excuse for importing many of the basic compounds used in the pharma industry from China, we need to get competitive there, use non-tariff barriers as there are legitimate quality issues with Chinese stuff, impose duties and force local sourcing of most of these.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nam »

kit wrote:
If we tax the components coming from China will that help in localized production ? .. much like how the cell phone production went up ?
We would have to consider the scale. Phone components are a easy target because of the size of our market and the volume of import.

Others may not. For example Chinese export heaters in large quantities. It is targeted towards colder countries. We don't need heaters, so cannot tax heaters!

Given the Trump trade war, we could market ourselves as a alternative. However it can only be successful, if there is scale.

If we can produce ATAGs like pancakes, it will be fairly easy to sell it abroad because it will be very cost effective.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

PM Suraksha Bima Yojana & PM Jeevan Jyoti Yojana.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Rahulsidhu »

Bart S wrote:
kit wrote:
If we tax the components coming from China will that help in localized production ? .. much like how the cell phone production went up ?
For electronics industry, depends on what you mean by components. Some we already are, like PCBs etc, giving results. Lower level components need to be handled over time and carefully, perhaps with focussed local R&D and incentives rather than just duties, or it could end up killing higher level manufacturing/assembly operations. A major push towards electronics R&D and design skills will be very productive, as that is what generates IP and is higher value/margin, and inevitably results in NPI type ecosystem along with local production if properly incentivized. The whole competitiveness of Shenzhen comes from the fact that they not only have factories but now have design skills too so companies like Anker etc who basically make simple but good products are now world leaders.

In other areas, we need to move industries that make low-end items that we import from China away from cottage industry/SSI mode to large scale industry participation. It's the only way we can compete with them. For example Reliance is into manufacturing fabrics, and also retailing them (apart from footwear) in a big way. But they have no incentive to participate in the garment industry that can employ many more millions, because it is skewed in favour of smaller units regulations-wise. If companies like those are asked to set up large scale units across the country we can not only beat China at that but also leave Ban/SL etc way behind. Companies like Bajaj and Wipro have brand reputation in India and can easily engineer and locally manufacture quality basic appliances but choose instead to stamp their name on cheap imports from China. Something is wrong there, needs to be fixed and they should instead be flooding overseas markets and competing with Chinese goods. Needs focussed attention from the GOI, deregulation, and perhaps kicking some butts, it's not going to happen by just letting things drift. A simple rule like making labeling of the country of origin/manufacture on all products sold online (and elsewhere for that matter) doesn't get implemented. Half the stuff one buys on Amazon these days (even from "Indian" brands like Milton) are Chinese.

There is also no excuse for importing many of the basic compounds used in the pharma industry from China, we need to get competitive there, use non-tariff barriers as there are legitimate quality issues with Chinese stuff, impose duties and force local sourcing of most of these.
An excellent post!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Karthik S »

It's good that they are building a new refinery, but as with Saudi money, hope it doesn't come with other strings attached.
NEW DELHI: Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil company, on Wednesday announced a $44-billion deal to build a giant refinery complex in India with three Indian oil majors.

//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63717735.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

Maybe the many fiascos of insecure/lax data handling, as well as piss poor data security, has precipitated this action.

Thanks to CA & Facebook??

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by disha »

Karthik S wrote:It's good that they are building a new refinery, but as with Saudi money, hope it doesn't come with other strings attached.
NEW DELHI: Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil company, on Wednesday announced a $44-billion deal to build a giant refinery complex in India with three Indian oil majors.

//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63717735.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
That's actually great news., it means assured supply of oil for the refinery and at assured prices. Takes care of volatility. Also from the supplier perspective, securing the buyer secures their supplies.

Only thing I would have wanted was for the refinery to be constructed in Rajasthan, right near the Indo-bakistan border. That remote area needs jobs and given that it is Saudi funded, it will be protected as well.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Karthik S wrote:It's good that they are building a new refinery, but as with Saudi money, hope it doesn't come with other strings attached.
NEW DELHI: Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil company, on Wednesday announced a $44-billion deal to build a giant refinery complex in India with three Indian oil majors.
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63717735.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
No, this is the best kind of investment. They invest their money to build fixed assets on our land. They can't dig it up and carry it away. They can't stop the oil without hurting themselves, because a 1.2mmtpa refinery would be the world's largest , together with Reliance Jamnagar (also 1.2mmtpa). It would sigificantly boost our trade volumes and government revenues since half the profits accrue to our state owned entities backing it.

The worst kind of investment is short term hot money flitting in and out of our stock market at the press of a mouse button.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Rahulsidhu »

Xiaomi is setting up its assembly units in India and the accompanying criticism is that this is a step towards making the country a nation of screwdrivers.

To build a solid manufacturing sector in order to move up the value chain, the push must come from the government.

But for now, it’s the screwdriver level technology that will show us the direction.
https://swarajyamag.com/amp/story/econo ... ow-the-way

Article well-worth reading.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by arun »

Karthik S wrote:It's good that they are building a new refinery, but as with Saudi money, hope it doesn't come with other strings attached.
NEW DELHI: Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil company, on Wednesday announced a $44-billion deal to build a giant refinery complex in India with three Indian oil majors.

//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63717735.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
:wink: "O Ye of little faith" ................

Be confident that if Saudi tail needs to be twisted by India it can be done 8) . As citizens of a great power let us not do a dhothi shiver when it comes to investment in India by countries of the heft of Saudi Arabia.


Meanwhile X posting Saudi Aramco media release on signing a MOU with Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (RRPCL), a consortium of PSU refiners Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, to establish an integrated 1.2 million bpd refinery and petrochemical complex at Nanar in Ratnagiri district of Maharashtra:
Saudi Aramco and Indian consortium “RRPCL” sign MoU to develop Ratnagiri mega refinery and petrochemicals complex on India’s west coast

NEW DELHI, India, April 11, 2018

President & CEO Amin H. Nasser: “Investing in India is a key part of Saudi Aramco’s global downstream strategy, and another milestone in our growing relationship with India.”

Saudi Aramco signed today a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with “President & CEO Amin H. Nasser: “Investing in India is a key part of Saudi Aramco’s global downstream strategy, and another milestone in our growing relationship with India.”

Saudi Aramco signed today a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with “Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.” (RRPCL), a consortium of Indian oil companies which includes The Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (IOCl), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL), to jointly develop and build an integrated mega refinery and petrochemicals complex at Ratnagiri, in the state of Maharashtra. Saudi Aramco may also seek to include a strategic partner to co-invest in the mega refinery.

The strategic partnership brings together crude supply, resources, technologies, experience, and expertise of these multiple oil companies with an established commercial presence around the world.

A pre-feasibility study for the refinery has been completed and the parties are now finalizing the project’s overall configuration. Following the signing of the MOU, the parties will extend their collaboration to discuss the formation of a joint venture that would provide for joint ownership, control, and management of the project.

The refinery will be capable of processing 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. It will produce a range of refined petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel, meeting BS-VI fuel efficiency norms. The refinery will also provide feedstock for the integrated petrochemical complex, which will be capable of producing approximately 18 million tons per annum of petrochemical production.

In addition to the refinery, cracker and downstream petrochemical facilities, the project will include associated facilities such as a logistics, crude oil and product storage terminals, raw water supply, as well as centralized and shared utilities.

Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. (RRPCL) will rank among the largest world refining and petrochemicals projects and will be designed to meet India’s fast-growing fuels and petrochemicals demand. The project cost is estimated at around $44 billion.

“Investing in India is a key part of our company’s global downstream strategy, and another milestone in our growing relationship with India,” said Saudi Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser, who also noted the opening in 2017 of Aramco Asia’s New Delhi office with a mandate to expand Saudi Aramco’s international portfolio in this key economic growth region.

“The signing marks a significant development in India’s oil and gas sector, enabling a strategic joint venture and investment partnership that will serve India’s fast-growing demand for transportation fuels and chemical products. Participating in this mega project will allow Saudi Aramco to go beyond our crude oil supplier role to a fully integrated position that may help usher in other areas of collaboration, such as refining, marketing, and petrochemicals for India’s future energy demands,” said Nasser..” (RRPCL), a consortium of Indian oil companies which includes The Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (IOCl), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL), to jointly develop and build an integrated mega refinery and petrochemicals complex at Ratnagiri, in the state of Maharashtra. Saudi Aramco may also seek to include a strategic partner to co-invest in the mega refinery.

The strategic partnership brings together crude supply, resources, technologies, experience, and expertise of these multiple oil companies with an established commercial presence around the world.

A pre-feasibility study for the refinery has been completed and the parties are now finalizing the project’s overall configuration. Following the signing of the MOU, the parties will extend their collaboration to discuss the formation of a joint venture that would provide for joint ownership, control, and management of the project.

The refinery will be capable of processing 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. It will produce a range of refined petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel, meeting BS-VI fuel efficiency norms. The refinery will also provide feedstock for the integrated petrochemical complex, which will be capable of producing approximately 18 million tons per annum of petrochemical production.

In addition to the refinery, cracker and downstream petrochemical facilities, the project will include associated facilities such as a logistics, crude oil and product storage terminals, raw water supply, as well as centralized and shared utilities.

Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. (RRPCL) will rank among the largest world refining and petrochemicals projects and will be designed to meet India’s fast-growing fuels and petrochemicals demand. The project cost is estimated at around $44 billion.

“Investing in India is a key part of our company’s global downstream strategy, and another milestone in our growing relationship with India,” said Saudi Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser, who also noted the opening in 2017 of Aramco Asia’s New Delhi office with a mandate to expand Saudi Aramco’s international portfolio in this key economic growth region.

“The signing marks a significant development in India’s oil and gas sector, enabling a strategic joint venture and investment partnership that will serve India’s fast-growing demand for transportation fuels and chemical products. Participating in this mega project will allow Saudi Aramco to go beyond our crude oil supplier role to a fully integrated position that may help usher in other areas of collaboration, such as refining, marketing, and petrochemicals for India’s future energy demands,” said Nasser.

Saudi Aramco Clicky
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vipins »

disha wrote:

Only thing I would have wanted was for the refinery to be constructed in Rajasthan, right near the Indo-bakistan border. That remote area needs jobs and given that it is Saudi funded, it will be protected as well.
HPCL refinery coming up in Barmer,but yes,its not Saudi funded!!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by disha »

^ Near Jaisalmer sir, near Jaisalmer - like some 5 km aft towards Indo-Pak border. It should be Saudi funded.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nandakumar »

The crude is extracted in Barmer. It is a very heavy crude meaning so viscous, that you could drop crude the size of a lemon on the table and it would stay put. If you have to transport it, you would need to heat up the pipeline so the waxy crude melts a little and make transportation a little easier. Cairn India which owns the field has been transporting it to Gujarat coast so it could be exported. The extra distance in transportation and special preparation adds to The cost. The refinery in Barmer makes more sense.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

{Deleted}
Last edited by Suraj on 15 Apr 2018 00:53, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Don't post anecdotes with politics
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 475336.cms

Why ATMs are running dry in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana
U Sudhakar Reddy | TNN | Updated: Mar 27, 2018, 21:10 IST
HYDERABAD: V Jagannatha Rao, a retired employee of Karnataka state undertaking MSIL, is a very hot and bothered man these days. The reason: for the past few weeks he has been facing problems getting his hands on some of his own cash as the ATM he frequents close to his home has been sporting the ‘no cash’ sign.
“For the past few weeks we have been facing a problem getting cash from the Neredmet branch ATM for least two to three days a week. The bank officials express their inability to do anything about it as they are not receiving adequate cash,” said the Safilguda resident, who was spotted at the Bank of India’s Neredmet branch ATM on Monday
While the cash crunch is less acute in core Hyderabad, other parts of the city and its fringes as well as rural Telangana and AP have been reeling under a severe shortage of currency, with ATMs being filled with cash only once a month in some places.
When this correspondent visited ATMs in places such as Tarnaka, Moula Ali, Kushaiguda, Sainikpuri, Neredmet, ECIL, AS Rao Nagar, Nagarjuna Nagar, Kamala Nagar, Dammaiguda, around 70% of the ATMs were running dry.
In fact, even on Rama Navami day many were forced to spend most of their time running from one ATM to the other in their quest for some cash to meet their festive requirements instead of spending some time in prayer and celebrating the festival.
In fact, ATMs of Andhra Bank and Axis Bank at Neredmet branches were found flashing the message that they were unable to process transactions. A Suresh, an administrative staff member of Slate School at Abids, told TOI, “I checked the two ATMs but found no cash in either of them. On a festival day like Rama Navami finding no cash in the ATM is a big pain.”
On the other hand, while Syndicate Bank’s Moula Ali branch ATM said it had no cash, its deposit machine was accepting money.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp ... 487247.ece
Unease deepens as ATMs go dry yet again in State
The days of demonetisation seem to have returned with a majority of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) going dry in the State. Downed shutters and ‘no cash’ and ‘out of service’ signs have become a common sight.

The bankers, too, admit that there is a cash crunch. They, however, refuse to divulge the reasons and are tight-lipped on despatches from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). “The RBI is not sharing any information with us,” says a senior banker, who didn’t want to be quoted. Though the banks are receiving cash, the despatches are not sufficient to meet the demand. “The cash being received from the RBI does not even meet half our requirement. This apart, deposits by customers have dropped drastically and the withdrawal of FDs and other deposits has gone up like never before,” he says. At many places, people were seen rushing from ATM to ATM to withdraw money. A. Narasimha Rao, a senior citizen, has been scouting for an ATM which is dispensing cash. The ATM he frequents close to his residence on Pantakaluva Road has been sporting the ‘no cash’ sign for quite some time. Also, none of the ATMs on Bandar Road was functioning on Monday.

“I have been facing this problem for the past few days. The ATMs are not being replenished regularly,” he laments. Not more than 40% ATMs in the State are dispensing cash. There are about 8,900 ATMs in the State and the dysfunctional ATMs varied from 15 to 80% depending upon the bank.

A spate of requests

The ATMs of the State Bank of India (SBI), the biggest bank in the country, have also gone dry. SBI senior official Deep Chand says that 15% of the ATMs were dysfunctional. “There is a cash problem. We are trying to replenish the ATMs at regular intervals,” he says.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Supratik »

Two wheeler export highest since 2012.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 816_1.html
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

Parts of UP area also reporting ATMs being dry. The job of ATM cash is outsourced to private parties by the Banks. So logically there should be no reason except someone is doing this deliberately.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Sigh folks. Please stop running around with CTs. Just google "April {insert year} cash shortage" or something. You'll see the same news every one of the past N years. Here's an article from April 2017, with a very nice explanation of what happens between RBI and Central Government and banks every single April. Just ignore the spin, but the news is the same:
Why Suddenly There is No Cash in ATMs

This has been around long before DeMo and nothing has changed.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Supratik »

Tax buoyancy has increased post demonetisation.

http://www.thehindu.com/business/what-d ... 550004.ece
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Supratik wrote:Tax buoyancy has increased post demonetisation.

http://www.thehindu.com/business/what-d ... 550004.ece
Definitely encouraging but Govt. should as a policy reduce IT rates, increase exemption limits and make it easier to file taxes. At some point, they were thinking of eliminating Income Tax but looks like the have given it up.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Gus »

vijayk wrote: Definitely encouraging but Govt. should as a policy reduce IT rates, increase exemption limits and make it easier to file taxes. At some point, they were thinking of eliminating Income Tax but looks like the have given it up.
Who?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Austin »

Why is India in this list ?

US Places 6 Nations With Large Trade Surpluses on Currency Watch List - Treasury
Currency practices of six major US trading partners - China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India and Switzerland - have been cited as potential currency manipulators, in part due to large trade surpluses with the United States, according to a semiannual report to Congress by the US Department of the Treasury.

"Treasury found that six major trading partners warrant placement on the ‘Monitoring List’ of major trading partners that merit close attention to their currency practices," a press release summarizing the report stated on Friday.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Gus wrote:
vijayk wrote: Definitely encouraging but Govt. should as a policy reduce IT rates, increase exemption limits and make it easier to file taxes. At some point, they were thinking of eliminating Income Tax but looks like the have given it up.
Who?
BJP ...
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by fanne »

nope only suswamy
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Who cares what they think . There’s a good reason legal basis does not allow someone to be prosecuted for what they are thinking of doing .

Secondly, if you argue about ‘perception’ I’ll simply censure you again for bringing in politics .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

It's not just perception.

1. Lower taxes for better compliance.
2. Govt. is doing everything to expand tax base and close loopholes. As they are reaching their goals, they need to reduce the tax burden.
3. Initiatives like DBT/Aadhar are reducing fraud.
4. GST expanded taxes on services and increased tax base.
5. Shouldn't citizens get rewarded for that compliance and fair taxation?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Four of the five items - arguably all five - listed are already taken care of. So it's still a matter of subjective 'perception' .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Supratik »

Fair taxation is relative. The tax in the lower bracket has been reduced. There is no evidence that Indians are taxed higher than in other countries. What can happen is that tax brackets can change with rising GDP and salary. That will happen every few years when the GDP and salaries have risen substantially. If you are expecting reductions every budget then you are living in your own world.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Gus »

vijayk wrote: BJP ...
Who in BJP?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nam »

vijayk wrote:It's not just perception.

1. Lower taxes for better compliance.
Person earning 5 lakhs/41 thousand pays 11k/year or roughly RS 900.

or 2.2 % income tax. 5 lakhs is not a low salary.

Not sure how lower can the tax rate be.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Gus wrote:
vijayk wrote: BJP ...
Who in BJP?
Please don't indulge in troll baiting. We all know who he's referring to. vijayk has a problem with comprehending the difference between politics and economics. He's a serial offender on this thread.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by hanumadu »

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BTVI Alert: Uttam Galva NPA Caused Problems For ArcelorMittal Bid For Essar Steel.

#NCLT To Hear Arcelor Mittal, NuMetal First Round Rejection This Week.
Wow, 100% recovery in a not so small NPA case. And what more, more bidders for Essar Steel means more recovery from the same. NPA resolution shaping up nicely.
Yagnasri
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

5 Lacs pa is petty low amount when you have no social security, no job security, no public health care worth mentioning, no free primary to graduate education worth that is publicly funded, No pension, no house in any city where you can get a job and aged parents to take care.
nam
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nam »

Yagnasri wrote:5 Lacs pa is petty low amount when you have no social security, no job security, no public health care worth mentioning, no free primary to graduate education worth that is publicly funded, No pension, no house in any city where you can get a job and aged parents to take care.
People earning under 5 lakhs probably makes up 90% of the earning population. If not more.

Would GoI letting them not pay Rs. 900 per month get them all the items you have mentioned?
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.firstpost.com/business/atms ... 35137.html
ATMs go dry nationwide: Why the biggest cash hoarders - political parties and RBI - owe answers for the crunch?
According to RBI data, as on 6 April, currency in circulation was Rs 18.4 trillion. By comparison, it was Rs 8.9 trillion on 6 January, 2017, two months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the note-ban. So, that rules out the possibility of not having enough cash in the system. This means enough cash has been printed but has not reached ATMs. Now, that leaves us with two possibilities:

Representational image. Reuters.Representational image. Reuters.
First, large scale cash hoarding by institutions including political parties ahead of the election season in crucial states and ahead of general elections next year, triggered the cash crunch. At least two senior bankers this writer spoke to highlighted this and said investigators needs to take a closer look at this possibility. This is particularly true about the Rs 2000 notes that was introduced post demonetisation, in November, 2016. Political parties may be in a hurry to collect as much cash as possible to run their operations, as cash remains king in the system despite all talks of digitalisation. Since most political parties are likely to be involved in such cash hoarding activities, only an independent probe can help dig out any hidden cash piles -- money that should ideally be in public circulation.

Second, the RBI’s withdrawal of Rs 2000 notes from the system spawned the cash shortage. Last December, a State Bank of India (SBI) report pointed out that the RBI may be hoarding Rs 2000 notes to kill these bills gradually. The report cited information provided by the Ministry of Finance in the Lok Sabha that the RBI printed 16,957 million pieces of Rs 500 notes and 3,654 million pieces of Rs 2,000 notes as on 8 December 2017. The total value of such notes translates into Rs 15,787 billion. It takes into account another set of data (from the RBI), which is the currency in circulation on the same date (8 December) and subtracts the value of small value notes up to March 2017 provided in the RBI annual report from it (Rs 16,825 billion-Rs 3,501 billion). Thus, it arrives at the value of high denomination notes in circulation at Rs 13,324 billion as on 8 December. Now, taking the difference of the value of total printed high denomination currency as on 8 December (Rs 15,787 billion) and the total value of high denomination notes in circulation, the SBI arrives at a figure of Rs 2,463 billion, ‘which may have been printed by the RBI but not supplied in the market.’ According to the report, even this Rs 2,463 billion may be on the lower side.
Vasu
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vasu »

IMD's normal monsoon forecast has sent a positive sentiment across the market. Of course, India must continue focusing on improving its long term water security and usage efficiency.

IMD monsoon forecast showers Indian economy with cheer
Rainfall is likely to be normal during the June-to-September southwest monsoon season, the government’s weather office said on Monday.

If indeed the IMD forecast does pan out then it will have a salutary impact on the macroeconomic framework—especially with respect to food inflation—and mitigate some of the farm distress.

Rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 54% probability that rains will be normal to above normal, the IMD said in its first stage long range forecast. Probability that rainfall will be deficient (less than 90% of 50 year average) is 14%, it added.

The onset of the monsoon in June is the trigger for planting of rain-fed Kharif crops. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation.

A normal monsoon is crucial to push economic growth, which slowed last year under the lingering impact of demonetisation and disruptions due to implementation of the goods and services tax (GST), both of which impacted private consumption demand as well as exports, CRISIL research said in a note.
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.firstpost.com/business/govt ... 35179.html
Govt says 'unusual demand' reason behind cash crunch, assures adequate supply of currency
Amidst reports of a cash crunch and empty ATMs, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Tuesday sought to assuage fears, saying "there is more than adequate currency in circulation", even as the government blamed "unusual demand" for shortages in some areas.

"Have reviewed the currency situation in the country. Overall there is more than adequate currency in circulation and also available with the banks. The temporary shortage caused by 'sudden and unusual increase' in some areas is being tackled quickly," Jaitley tweeted.

"There is no cash crunch in the country. There is around Rs 18 lakh crore currency supply now, which is close to the circulation during the demonetisation period. We keep Rs 2.5-3 lakh crore more currency in stock for excess demand," said S.C Garg, Economic Affairs Secretary.

He said there was unusually high demand for currency in the last couple of months. As opposed to an average demand of about Rs 20,000 crore a month, "in the first 13 days of April itself there was a demand of Rs 45,000 crore", he said.
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

nam wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:5 Lacs pa is petty low amount when you have no social security, no job security, no public health care worth mentioning, no free primary to graduate education worth that is publicly funded, No pension, no house in any city where you can get a job and aged parents to take care.
People earning under 5 lakhs probably makes up 90% of the earning population. If not more.

Would GoI letting them not pay Rs. 900 per month get them all the items you have mentioned?
They collect 8000 cr in taxes from people with 5L in a year. Should have exempted.
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