PAK-FA and FGFA: News & Discussion - June 2014

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 20 Apr 2018 22:03

So let me rephrase: Russians are not offering us anything on the PAK/FA. It is rubbish compared to true 5G a/c that are flying today. I believe even the RuAF does not want them in quantity.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Apr 2018 22:30

one of the many gems from this article

indian aerospace designers also cited the FGFA experience as essential learning for developing the indigenous fifth generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) is pursuing.

Now, the FGFA’s burial sets the stage for the IAF to eventually acquire the F-35 Lightning II, which comes in air force as well as naval variants.

I dont think it will go down well with Vlad and we will see a lot of transigence on S400 and other deals. I wont be surprised if chinese pitch into it.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Apr 2018 23:25

Cosmo_R wrote:So let me rephrase: Russians are not offering us anything on the PAK/FA. It is rubbish compared to true 5G a/c that are flying today. I believe even the RuAF does not want them in quantity.

It won't be rubbish, but it will take time to mature.

NIIP for instance has a long and proud history of making world class ESAs, their AESA won't be mediocre.
Salyut etc are making engines for ages. The airframe design from TSAAGI will also be worldclass. The plane will be a dream to fly.

The problem is it will take time for its avionics, engines all to achieve high levels of IAF mandated reliability and also, to ensure its stealth etc is of a decent level.

Even so, there will also be limitations. The aircraft can be detected by non standard wave band radars from a distance from the aft.

RusAF simply can't afford them at this point.

With a huge number of S-3XX S4-XX upgraded Flankers and MiG-31s, they are not exactly in need of the PAK FA at this point.

They would have preferred IAF just purchased them.

Having said that, what other short term options do we have?

F-35 is likely going to come with all sorts of instrusive restrictions and will also be a buggy bird till it has at least several years of service. Plus it too will cost a ton to operate, and we will be tied to a restrictive spares part agreement, for "strategic" reasons.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Apr 2018 23:27

ArjunPandit wrote:one of the many gems from this article
indian aerospace designers also cited the FGFA experience as essential learning for developing the indigenous fifth generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) is pursuing.

Now, the FGFA’s burial sets the stage for the IAF to eventually acquire the F-35 Lightning II, which comes in air force as well as naval variants.
I dont think it will go down well with Vlad and we will see a lot of transigence on S400 and other deals. I wont be surprised if chinese pitch into it.

Vlad I think only respects strength. He mistook Modis politeness for dissembling. He made a comment at some joint conference that we can't manage the way Indians dance around with words. It was not exactly a compliment. I think, he and his establishment have taken many liberties with the Indian strategic interests and it is high time we also showed we also deserve equal partnership in all respects. He will understand that. It does not help Russia for India to enter the US camp.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Apr 2018 23:56

Karan M wrote:
With a huge number of S-3XX S4-XX upgraded Flankers and MiG-31s, they are not exactly in need of the PAK FA at this point.

They would have preferred IAF just purchased them.

Exactly, let's be realistic about their threats too, which other country with strong AD are they going to fight with? Apart from maintaining their MilInd complex and past superpower status they do not have a pressing need for PAKFA.

Karan M wrote: Having said that, what other short term options do we have?

F-35 is likely going to come with all sorts of instrusive restrictions and will also be a buggy bird till it has at least several years of service. Plus it too will cost a ton to operate, and we will be tied to a restrictive spares part agreement, for "strategic" reasons.

1. Hate to say, but this short termism has been the bane. The money we will be spending, on it can be plugged into AMCA/LCA.
2. As much as I distrust americans and their wares, F35 has a headstart in everything, rest all being equal, it will mature before FGFA for sure.

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 21 Apr 2018 00:05

In my personal opinion, I do feel PAKFA will come, but hopefully it IAF will sign on when the engine is mature and not as a risk sharing partner, but an outright purchase and local manufacture with no TOT. If they can delink the engine and work with RR to make a engine for both PAKFA and MKI that would make life easier for IAF for decades. Russia won't sign off on that until we drag some feet and push back hard on the engine requirement.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Apr 2018 01:28

For all the doubts cast by various media pieces, the one official committee set up by the GOI gave the pakfa/fgfa a green light. Let us see what happens.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Apr 2018 02:07

http://www.janes.com/article/79457/indi ... o-it-alone

Might be cut copy paste

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 21 Apr 2018 02:33

Thanks for the second news piece Karan. If this is true, the GOI (and the IAF) are realizing there is only so much money to go around. You cannot have FGFA, 110 fighters, 36 Rafales, AMCA, Tejas production, etc, etc, etc. Dream projects have to go and urgent projects have to get going. This will have a direct correlation to the path India will adopt for the 110 fighters. More on that in the MRCA thread. You raised an interesting point in the MRCA thread, which I want to discuss as well.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 21 Apr 2018 05:57

If we are really withdrawing from the FGFA we would do well to pour whatever money we were going to on "co-development" into the AMCA program which needed some serious funding yesterday. Ajit DOval's statement being quoted int he reports suggests that we could buy some PAK-FA's off the shelf later on when it is more mature (and when we have money to spare), which is fine and the Russians would prefer that anyway. Cancellation of FGFA means F-35 being bought instead seems to be more of Shukla saab's wet dream than anything else.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2018 07:01

Most likely the PAK-FA is a dud. No point in sinking effort into it.

Same time F35 is not the answer.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 21 Apr 2018 08:03

At the cost of sounding like Philip ji, in my opinion, Su-57Mki is still a better deal than what the west will offer.

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 21 Apr 2018 08:08

It still may come as a direct buy and tweak at home rather than fund 4-6 billion for them to complete + still tweak at home..

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Apr 2018 10:04

Pakfa just like jsf the russians cannot let it fail
Money and effort will be put in to make it work
Else it will open critical weakness the russians cannot afford with hostile nato wolf growling along its borders

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Apr 2018 10:06

How does the pakfa today, as is compare with mrca candidates? The big question would be production rates I suppose. not so different from the Tejas in this respect. The lines are still being set up? Not to mention teething trouble for a new fighter and the system that goes with it.

Performance wise, it should be ahead as is vs any m r ca candidate?

Anshuman.Kumar · Post by **Anshuman.Kumar** » 21 Apr 2018 10:18

Dud?
Compared to what?
J-20,J-31.?
F-22?F-35?
Any operational data ?

At the very least it will be better than anything we have now or will have in future including Su-30 MKI and Rafale.

So no Dud.

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 21 Apr 2018 10:27

One point missed by most is that India has not rejected PAKFA but only refused to fund its development. Let the Russians operationalise it and once its done we'll evaluate it vis-a-vis others. Development funds are best spent on Mk2, AMCA, UAV programs.

Why should we spend money on development without any ToT or IPR and the Russians thereafter selling Yakhont or Su-30MKA/M or T-90 to others making a fat profit in the process.

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 21 Apr 2018 10:33

Anshuman.Kumar wrote:Dud?
Compared to what?
J-20,J-31.?
F-22?F-35?
Any operational data ?

At the very least it will be better than anything we have now or will have in future including Su-30 MKI and Rafale.

So no Dud.

Have you evaluated the PAKFA?

Do you have performance specifications that was denied to IAF? Note "performance specifications" and NOT design specifications or brochure specifications.

On what basis do you conclude "it will be better than anything we have now or will have in future"? Brochuritis?

Especially since IAF was denied the data to do a fair assessment.

Anshuman.Kumar · Post by **Anshuman.Kumar** » 21 Apr 2018 10:55

Not at all..it's simple.logic.Its airframe is better than Su30 MKI.Sukhoi wont be going backwards.Its engine are the ones being used in SU 35.Rest when you yourself have no idea about what are the capabilities of J-etc how something becomes a dud ? Just because its Russian.?

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 21 Apr 2018 11:21

Here is what I think:

The J-20 killed FGFA

I think India never actually funded the FGFA program. It remained plainly on paper awaiting the conclusion of the pak-fa. The arrival of the J-20 set alarm bells ringing in New Delhi. It has already wasted a decade by relying on Russia for the 5th gen jet. Meanwhile, the Chinese went alone and came out with a squadron. Say what you want but the arrival of J-20 spells chinese confidence in its ability.

arun · Post by **arun** » 21 Apr 2018 11:38

Karan M wrote:http://www.janes.com/article/79457/indi ... o-it-alone

Might be cut copy paste

Then again by stating “official sources told Jane’s on 20 April” suggests that this Janes article by Rahul Bedi is a standalone independent one and thus may be taken as corroboration of Ajai Shukla’s Business Standard article posted by Chinmay {Clicky} that the FGFA is well and truly smért.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Apr 2018 11:50

Anshuman.Kumar wrote:Not at all..it's simple.logic.Its airframe is better than Su30 MKI.Sukhoi wont be going backwards.Its engine are the ones being used in SU 35.Rest when you yourself have no idea about what are the capabilities of J-etc how something becomes a dud ? Just because its Russian.?

It takes money and time to get things done. The Russian federation lacks the money for r&d. Which is why they had agreed to co develop in the first place.

The goi has best idea as to what they were looking to accomplish. And what the Russians were prepared to give.

That being the case upon Russian failure to provide sufficient information. The goi pulled the plug. Do i think su 57 is a dud. Don't know. But I know that India was not getting what it wanted. So it put the program on hold.

If Russian come on board with Indian requirements. Who knows?

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 21 Apr 2018 11:54

Anshuman.Kumar wrote:Not at all..it's simple.logic.Its airframe is better than Su30 MKI.Sukhoi wont be going backwards.Its engine are the ones being used in SU 35.Rest when you yourself have no idea about what are the capabilities of J-etc how something becomes a dud ? Just because its Russian.?

Have you read public offering prospectus of some of the best companies in India and the world where they mention "past performance is no guarantee of future performance"?

So by what evaluation criteria do you conclude PAKFA airframe is better than Su-30?

Extending your Lahori Logic, RahulG is the best choice of PM since 3 previous generations were PM. Then why isn't India voting for him?

Sukhoi isn't going backwards but it isn't going forward either. Russia is unable to make gas turbines for its frigates and destroyers

Rest assured, I don't even want to have any idea.

It's the IAF's prerogative to have an idea and over a decade they've been denied data and access to evaluate and decide and "have an idea".

If data is denied, then it's as naked as the Emperor's New Clothes

If the PAKFA is go good, why doesn't Sukhoi participate in the latest IAF RFP?

And kindly do point out any part of my posts reflecting anti Russian bias.

Will · Post by **Will** » 21 Apr 2018 12:41

The problem is not India moving away from Russia , the problem is Russia. The Russians expect India to be a captive cash cow and expect India not to react when they go against Indian interests. It’s not India that’s forgotten Russian friendship but Russia who has forgotten who kept their MIC afloat after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Further with the Russians any contract signed is not worth the paper it’s signed on. They don meet timelines or reneage on any parts that don’t suit them like TOT. Spares are still a nightmare for the forces. What use are “rugged” equipment as they like to put it when they won’t even start. As a member pointed out they use our money to perfect techonologies and then go sell them to others , including our enemies for a fat profit.

When it comes to the FGFA it’s not Russia’s capability that’s in doubt but it’s their ability to come up with the funds for it. They want India to just fund it and buy a large quantity so they can keep milking us over the next decade without sharing any worthwhile technologies or sharing the IPR. They would have just used our money and sold the same to China and maybe Pakistan later on under a different name.

Getting out of it is a good decision. We can buy it off the shelf later if it matures. India dosent have unlimited money for multiple programs. We need to sink all available money into our domestic R&D. If we need partners then we should tie up with the Europeans. They are much more open and less restrictive than the Americans .Though maybe not as advanced as Uncle Sam they are more advanced than the Russians at this point in time.

Russia needs to stop taking India for granted. Today and going forward Russia will need India much more than India while need Russia.Sanctions are crippling them. If they think that putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket is going to help then they are not as mart as they think and will collapse sooner rather than later.

I think they are dragging their feet on the S 400 as a direct result of us pulling out of the FGFA and are threatening to selling it to the Pakis. If they do sell it to the Pakis that would be the final straw and drive India firmly into the American camp.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 21 Apr 2018 16:44

nvishal wrote:Here is what I think:

The J-20 killed FGFA

I think India never actually funded the FGFA program. It remained plainly on paper awaiting the conclusion of the pak-fa. The arrival of the J-20 set alarm bells ringing in New Delhi. It has already wasted a decade by relying on Russia for the 5th gen jet. Meanwhile, the Chinese went alone and came out with a squadron. Say what you want but the arrival of J-20 spells chinese confidence in its ability.

In a perverse way you are right - J20 spelt the death knell for FGFA. But not in the doti-shiver way you are painting. As per IAF Chief last week, J20 as a radar evader is a first class dud. The Chief says J20 lights up existing Indian radars already. He did not seem to bother about your kind of “arrival of J-20 spells chinese confidence in its ability.” opinions because he is focused on threat assessments. And he seems to think it is not high enough

Other than a nose shape that tries to mimic a reasonably successful American product, it has nothing that can challenge a PAK FA, not even radar returns. Forget about engines or maneuverability

So there is no urgency for a FGFA program. Nor a F35. India has time to go with AMCA program.

Now, on the other hand, due to technical shortfalls in J20 - J31 programs, if the Chinese approached the Russians for “a small batch of PakFa like the Su35 deal”and shoved a fist full of dollars down Natasha’s g-strings, then also India would step back.

We don’t know yet. But J20 as a threat is not cutting it for PakFa after IAF Chief’s comment.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 21 Apr 2018 17:08

+108 hnair saar! Well said!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Apr 2018 17:18

I am amazed at the attitude of some who delight in the MKI besting the best western birds , but give zero credit to the Russians who designed the aircraft!
They think that the stork perhaps brought it to India.

With such a rich experience of operating it, the only BMos capable fighter aircraft in the world, they amazingly have zero confidence in its successor the SU-57 from the same stable.AWST and Sweetman have covered its developments for a long time and described its virtues. It is a far superior bird to any Flanker derivative, a generation ahead.The IAF reportedly demanding a new engine seems very hypocritical in quite willing to use the old 414 engine for the AMCA which may arrive12-15 yrs from now! It wants the highest standards for the FGFA but is willing to soak up 40 yr old antiques from the US being junked by its allies.

There is both an overt and covert campaign to prevent India from acquiring the latest Russian milware like SU-57s and S-400s, with crude US threats of sanctions. The public cry from the head of the US's Pacific command for India to " dump Russia" was not only cheap, crude and cretinous, totally unbecoming of a professional military man, that too of his high rank.The big Q is cui bono? Who benefits from this campaign and conspiracy? Certainly not India, only vested interests at home and abroad.

PS: The pulls from diverse directions can be well understood when you look at the Dassault- R co.relationship.They want India to buy Rafales by the dozens which will keep them in clover for decades!
It is so ultra- expensive that it will beggar budgets.

Then comes the Swedes and Adani.They want a spl. relationship too and their share of the cake. Then the Yanquis with their bullhorn about India becoming any-which-way their catamite in S.Asia replacing Pak,reduced to the status of catamite stepney.

Not a single bugger is thinking of the future of the IAF but how much they can squeeze out of India.The USrefused to even sell the F-22 to Japan and doesn't trust poodle Britain even with JAG tech. Look in comparison what Russia has offered us instead.It's best.It is entirely upto the GOI to sign on or decline the SU-57, but if one day either the Chinese or Pakis benefit from a mil. relationship with Russia , fighting them with F-16s or F-18s vs stealth fighters, we would have only ourselves to blame.

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 21 Apr 2018 21:27

nhair,

Stealth is a mode. If it flies in heavily scanned areas of the sky, off course it will increase its observability. The near surface part and the high altitude areas of the sky is not as thoroughly scanned as the middle part. Scanning 24x7 costs money and the enemy nation can detect which parts of the sky are scanned. Stealth mode is a combination of speed, altitude, cross radar design and coating.

we have no idea what the actual service ceiling of the f22, f35 or the j20 is. The j20 is underpowered due to the engine but that didn't stop the Chinese from working on its cross radar section. An engine upgrade is all it may need to achieve a desirable service ceiling.

In contrary, India won't even build underpowered stealth prototypes.

btw, the FGFA was our only 5th gen jet project that had the potential to become something more than just a project on paper.

Do you know what's scarier than a stealth fighter jet?
A stealth bomber (conventional)

A stealth fighter jet is a tactical asset

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 21 Apr 2018 22:14

nvishal wrote:nhair,

Stealth is a mode. If it flies in heavily scanned areas of the sky, off course it will increase its observability. The near surface part and the high altitude areas of the sky is not as thoroughly scanned as the middle part. Scanning 24x7 costs money and the enemy nation can detect which parts of the sky are scanned. Stealth mode is a combination of speed, altitude, cross radar design and coating.

we have no idea what the actual service ceiling of the f22, f35 or the j20 is. The j20 is underpowered due to the engine but that didn't stop the Chinese from working on its cross radar section. An engine upgrade is all it may need to achieve a desirable service ceiling.

In contrary, India won't even build underpowered stealth prototypes.

btw, the FGFA was our only 5th gen jet project that had the potential to become something more than just a project on paper.

Do you know what's scarier than a stealth fighter jet?
A stealth bomber (conventional)

A stealth fighter jet is a tactical asset

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 21 Apr 2018 22:34

I was afraid to do that, but now that I have support from you....let me also join in.

BTW, it is H Nair and not N Hair

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 21 Apr 2018 23:20

Rakesh wrote:I was afraid to do that, but now that I have support from you....let me also join in.

BTW, it is H Nair and not N Hair

The source of confusion is Nair http://www.naircare.com/

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 21 Apr 2018 23:27

I think most people discounting the j20 on face value is just because of plain shock. When I wrote my previous comment, I wasn't scared(dhoti-shivering) nor was I trying to scare anyone here.

If we actually start now, we might have an amca prototype in the next 6-8 years. Another 3-4 years for setting up production and a squadron.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2018 00:03

More faith in the Chinese brochure/claims than the IAF chief's assessment of the actual product. After-all this is IAF's domain and its chief is a professional.

What can be root cause of the above symptom?

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 22 Apr 2018 00:32

I don't understand this culture of disapproving Chinese hardware. The confidence level is extraordinary.

The J-20 went into production in 2017. The GoI approached Russia in Oct 2017 to express its withdrawal from the FGFA program after 11 years. Coincidence?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Apr 2018 00:35

You have the Air Chief saying that the J-20 can be detected from several kilometeres away. What more than that, does one need? You have to call a spade a spade.

nam · Post by **nam** » 22 Apr 2018 01:03

Not sure how j20 will be stealthly with it's massive canards.

If chinese canards doesn't effect stealth, why there isn't one on j31

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 22 Apr 2018 21:55

nvishal wrote:I don't understand this culture of disapproving Chinese hardware. The confidence level is extraordinary.

The J-20 went into production in 2017. The GoI approached Russia in Oct 2017 to express its withdrawal from the FGFA program after 11 years. Coincidence?

Sorry but there are no such coincidences. Not for those who are even cursorily following the drama around PAKFA.

I have said previously as well and I will say again, it looks like IAF has never really had confidence that Russians can deliver on what they promise. Russians have done everything opposite of what they should have done to convince IAF. And frankly IAF is tired of high maintainance Russian maal now. And after the new government came into power the India has changed to be far more assertive in making contracts. We aint gonna accept shit easily anymore.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 22 Apr 2018 21:57

nam wrote:Not sure how j20 will be stealthly with it's massive canards.

If chinese canards doesn't effect stealth, why there isn't one on j31

If you have a notion in your mind that "canards are bad for stealth", you can simply delete this from your mind.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 23 Apr 2018 08:02

nvishal wrote:nhair,

Stealth is a mode. If it flies in heavily scanned areas of the sky, off course it will increase its observability. The near surface part and the high altitude areas of the sky is not as thoroughly scanned as the middle part. Scanning 24x7 costs money and the enemy nation can detect which parts of the sky are scanned. Stealth mode is a combination of speed, altitude, cross radar design and coating.

nWhistle, your indepth analysis of China's stealth saga is not complete without opening a bottle of Sun Tzu: "Stealth is a state of mind" He elaborates further with "Dressing like japanese ninja not enough, close eyes tight". Confucius, though he thinks Sun Tzu is a hack, broadly agrees with his "Dress donkey like horse, enemy surrenders" theories. However that adi-TCS consultant, Bodhidharma thinks these two are rank idiots and went on to teach the monks about how to safely retrieve soaps in shower stalls of Shaolin, when mongols are present.

Yeah, those middle-sky radar guys gets all the budget since Watson. Operational budget cuts so bad that Indra radars have rolling powercuts during summer and Swordfish-II is switched on only after 10:00 PM

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 23 Apr 2018 09:01

^^ This one's a keeper. Just like Sher Singh and the cattle prod.

Philip - why isn't Sukhoi/ROE tendering PAFKA in the IAF RFP?