PAK-FA and FGFA: News & Discussion - June 2014

[Bart S]

The point really was should invest 4-6 billion dollars into this venture and get hardly any IP for it. Given that RuAF isn't adding these in numbers, all the debugging and growing pains are ours and ours alone. If this were an equal partnership with joint r&d and production (Airbus kinda model?) this would make a lot of sense! Plus this enables the product to be sold to competition while we toiled, refined and made it into a weapon.

The Airbus type joint IP option is not on offer. Understand, We may desire it to be so but it is not. Would not like to go into details of possible reasons why. But at the same time, the type of customization on offer would probably not be available from another country.

IMO, I would rather throw the 4-6 billion on engine ventures

I do not think anyone would object on the need to invest into our own MIC but we would be conflating two separate objectives. The investment into the PAK-FA project is about the acquisition of a product in relatively short time frames and hopefully with some strategic benefits to make it worthwhile to invest early. The engine venture example is about an investment into R&D in the hope of a successful future capability acquisition. Time and Risk are the key variables here.

Bottom line is that despite the flights of fancy of the Russophiles, the IAF themselves:
1> Does not see the J20 as a major threat
2> Do not regard the PAKFA in current form very highly
3> Do not like the level of commitment and openness displayed by the Russians towards forming a genuine JV with India that would give us real benefits
4> Are happy to cancel and look for an alternative, which also implies, that they do see viable alternatives out there.

Furthermore, with Russia backstabbing us and becoming a Chinese vassal state and cosying up to the Pakis, the chances of a half-baked and unproven Russian plane becoming our key future strategic fighter aircraft grows dimmer by the day.

[Cybaru]

The investment into the PAK-FA project is about the acquisition of a product in relatively short time frames and hopefully with some strategic benefits to make it worthwhile to invest early.

So one of the critical requirements for a product to mature is time, but another one is money and willingness to grind it out. For LCA we are putting in time and money and helping develop the third triad (scientific base). What's the advantage of time as you put it when there is no money to go with it?

There is a lot of money involved, and the risk is that the required investment will probably be double or triple their estimates.
What if five years from now, after investing 4-6 billion, they raise the estimate to 12-20 billion to finish the project? That is the real risk, of not getting anything at all from your investment. What do you show the taxpayer where the 6.275 billion went? Do you dump in another 12 billion in it? What IP do you get from it?

If we reuse the f404/414 engines and validate our fbw and shape of the aircraft, then we are kind of there where PAKFA is. It is roughly 30-40% of work only. We are probably 5-7 years behind them at this stage, but if we continue to pump both money and time, we will be ahead of them pretty soon.

Keep in mind, Russia does have two out of three components (Scientific base and time) = semi-mature product. It does not have the money to create a finished weapon that can be used on the battlefield by the IAF.

It will probably take 6-7 years for them to complete once we loan them the money (assuming they don't hit us for more money), then it boils down to 10 years extended induction period to make a warfighter out of a flying plane. I wholeheartedly agree with the folks who took this decision. Long overdue. Fly some in IAF colors when it is ready by purchasing directly.

Russia is an excellent source of weapons that are already products.

I think it doesn't like to be an equal partner and do equal risk sharing at this moment in time to develop new products.

[Philip]

If anyone "backstabbed " us it was the US, sanctions after P-2 which severely affected the LCA.On the other hand the Russians have been generous with our MKI production and BMos, just 2 examples.Support, spares, issues where post-CW collapse of the USSR.The situ today is v.different.If you look at the numerous agreements being regularly signed with Ru and desi cos. for the same. Such local centres for all Sov./ Ru systems are being set up locally in JVs for all 3 services.MKI availability has hugely increased to at least Rafale % in French service if not better as the latest IAF exercises have shown.

It may take a little more time for the SU-57 to prove its capability, but for the IAF, worth waiting for.We've hugely benefited from both the Bison and MIG-29 upgrades and the MKI programme, besting anything of the west barring the F-22 .There is precious little in 5th-gen tech that we've developed let alone mastered and yet to field a single desi modern aero-engines.All we get is cheap talk about a " Super-Kaveri", pushing the goalposts to 2040(?),a devious way of saying that Kaveri is as dead as the dodo! Believe you me, at the current rate of LCA MK-1 prod., with MK-2 yet to fly, or even appear in mock-up form, expecting the AMCA to "catch-up " with the SU-57 , that too depending upon this "Super- Kaveri" to power it, is like expecting Pak to denounce Jinnah and embrace Gandhi, which may be more likely !

[Cybaru]

It may take a little more time for the SU-57 to prove its capability, but for the IAF, worth waiting for

Not sure I should respond, but the point I am making is that it is not just a function of time. It's also a function of investment and need. RuAF has no need and there are no other enablers at the moment. We will bear all expenditure, if that is the case, why not morph AMCA to a more substantial platform and have them participate in a product in India where we can invest whatever is required.

Rest of your argument seems to border on emotions and subservient relationship functions to which I have no clue on how to respond.

[Rakesh]

^^^ Good one CY!

The investment into the PAK-FA project is about the acquisition of a product in relatively short time frames and hopefully with some strategic benefits to make it worthwhile to invest early.

Saar, I see no strategic benefits to acquiring the PAK-FA. The Russians are not allowing us anywhere the development of the plane. They want $4 billion from India to develop the plane. After that, they will sell the plane to us as is for which more billions have to be spent. We will do screwdrivergiri of the plane, just like we are doing with the Su-30MKI. That will turn out to be more expensive than buying them off the shelf, just like with Su-30MKI. But looks good in annual MoD reports that HAL is manufacturing state-of-the-art aircraft What have we learnt from assembling Su-30MKI? What will we learn from assembling PAK-FA?

The better option is let the Russians spend the money themselves to develop the plane. If and when the platform matures into a viable platform, we will do screwdrivergiri of the platform and everyone is happy. If the recent reports are true, NSA Ajit Doval said that onlee to the Russians.

The word "FIFTH" is key in the FGFA. And as per reports - still to be substantiated via official sources - the IAF does not believe it has the low observable characteristics that it is seeking. The PAK-FA program is going the way of the MTA program.

[nachiket]

The word "FIFTH" is key in the FGFA. And as per reports - still to be substantiated via official sources - the IAF does not believe it has the low observable characteristics that it is seeking. The PAK-FA program is going the way of the MTA program.

Correction. The FGFA is going the way of the MTA. PAK-FA will continue. Russians don't have any choice. Hopefully one day it will be at a stage where the IAF can accept it and buy a few off the shelf.

[Cybaru]

All those constantly wanting to fund PAKFA, how far do you think it will go without getting outside funding? or when do you think it will be ready for active service as a weapon without external funding. Care to take a stab at predictions?

[Rakesh]

The word "FIFTH" is key in the FGFA. And as per reports - still to be substantiated via official sources - the IAF does not believe it has the low observable characteristics that it is seeking. The PAK-FA program is going the way of the MTA program.

Correction. The FGFA is going the way of the MTA. PAK-FA will continue. Russians don't have any choice. Hopefully one day it will be at a stage where the IAF can accept it and buy a few off the shelf.

My fault. Come to think of it, the FGFA variant is what the IAF wanted. The Russians have not delivered, YET.

[Manish_P]

Correction. The FGFA is going the way of the MTA. PAK-FA will continue. Russians don't have any choice. Hopefully one day it will be at a stage where the IAF can accept it and buy a few off the shelf.

Buying a few off the shelf will likely mean more expensive purchase, spares, upgrades and no real absorption of technologies

So what would be the value. Tip of the spear ?

[kit]

Time to lock this thread ?

[kit]

The Airbus type joint IP option is not on offer. Understand, We may desire it to be so but it is not. Would not like to go into details of possible reasons why. But at the same time, the type of customization on offer would probably not be available from another country.

I do not think anyone would object on the need to invest into our own MIC but we would be conflating two separate objectives. The investment into the PAK-FA project is about the acquisition of a product in relatively short time frames and hopefully with some strategic benefits to make it worthwhile to invest early. The engine venture example is about an investment into R&D in the hope of a successful future capability acquisition. Time and Risk are the key variables here.

Bottom line is that despite the flights of fancy of the Russophiles, the IAF themselves:
1> Does not see the J20 as a major threat
2> Do not regard the PAKFA in current form very highly
3> Do not like the level of commitment and openness displayed by the Russians towards forming a genuine JV with India that would give us real benefits
4> Are happy to cancel and look for an alternative, which also implies, that they do see viable alternatives out there.

Furthermore, with Russia backstabbing us and becoming a Chinese vassal state and cosying up to the Pakis, the chances of a half-baked and unproven Russian plane becoming our key future strategic fighter aircraft grows dimmer by the day.

Quite possible after India invests all the money time and effort the Russians will build a variant around it like Su 35 and sell it to China. The bluff has been called and the deal is off.

[Vips]

Time to lock this thread ?

Yes high time. There may be comments when we order 36 FGFA off the shelf in the future.

[chetak]

All those constantly wanting to fund PAKFA, how far do you think it will go without getting outside funding? or when do you think it will be ready for active service as a weapon without external funding. Care to take a stab at predictions?

The russians will part with nothing on the technology side except, possibly, the finished aircraft, if it ever came to that. The russians certainly did not expect the Indian markets to take off and the amrekis to come calling on India in the form of eager suitors. Adaptations for role reversals are required from the russian side but they seem to be wantonly shooting themselves in the foot, every given opportunity.

They have been reduced to running aerospace ponzi schemes, coasting on past good connections with us.

Even if we do buy the PAKFA later, hopefully, in its proven, fully weaponized, squadron service avatar, we might end up saving a really big chunk of cash that our current pig in a poke investment strategy is dropping into a bottomless, non transparent russian design pit that may well end up funding other russian home grown projects on the quiet.

We already have had a bitter experience with the Vik. No need to learn the same lesson all over again.

They could easily help us in the regional jet project on the design side and also get paid handsomely for it but they are too short sighted to see the potential.

Maybe they are using the very same Vik experience to draw very different conclusions about Indian gullibility.

[Indranil]

The European 5th gen aircraft is very PKFA-ish. Same compromises made.

[nachiket]

Correction. The FGFA is going the way of the MTA. PAK-FA will continue. Russians don't have any choice. Hopefully one day it will be at a stage where the IAF can accept it and buy a few off the shelf.

Buying a few off the shelf will likely mean more expensive purchase, spares, upgrades and no real absorption of technologies

So what would be the value. Tip of the spear ?

Yes and a stopgap till AMCA is available. Why would it be more expensive? We are saving the money we would otherwise spend to develop it without getting any IP in the process.

[Cybaru]

Euro 5th gen? Hmm may be a ploy to get good rates for US 5th gen aircraft for Germany.

If there is a such a thing, we should become equal partners to it. Perhaps do a joint thing with France? Those guys build for sure, rest of the Europeans still lag quite a bit in aerospace compared to France.

[kit]

Euro 5th gen? Hmm may be a ploy to get good rates for US 5th gen aircraft for Germany.

If there is a such a thing, we should become equal partners to it. Perhaps do a joint thing with France? Those guys build for sure, rest of the Europeans still lag quite a bit in aerospace compared to France.

worth exploring a tier 1 partnership

[Manish_P]

Buying a few off the shelf will likely mean more expensive purchase, spares, upgrades and no real absorption of technologies

So what would be the value. Tip of the spear ?

Yes and a stopgap till AMCA is available. Why would it be more expensive? We are saving the money we would otherwise spend to develop it without getting any IP in the process.

Fair enough. How much money have we put into the project so far? IF we are exiting the project, then that sunk amount will have to be also considered, to get the true cost of outright purchase.

But yes, i can see that it might well be one tip of the Trishul - along with the AMCA and the Rafale

[kit]

The European 5th gen aircraft is very PKFA-ish. Same compromises made.

Boss , would it make sense to merge this thread with the AMCA . ?
maybe thats what happening in real life

[Indranil]

No. Until the time IAF formally says that the PAKFA is junked, it is a project on which India has spent $300 million and should be treated separately. Media can say whatever they want.

[Austin]

We Are 'Not Interested' in US F-35 Fighters - Indian Air Force Chief

New Delhi (Sputnik) — The Indian Air Force (IAF) has once again denied reports that it is interested in procuring Lockheed Martin's F-35 fighter jets. IAF chief B. S. Dhanoa has categorically rubbished such reports in a section of the Indian media.

"There is not talk on F-35. The Indian Air Force has not evinced interest and not talked to anyone. It is incorrect to report that we are interested in F-35," Air Chief Marshal B. S. Dhanoa said at a program organized by a think tank in New Delhi on Thursday evening.

When asked about the prospects of the Indo-Russia Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which is pending since over a decade, the air force chief said that the decision is with the Indian government."FGFA decision is with the government and that is classified," Air Chief Marchal Dhanoa said.

[Austin]

INDIA DID NOT NOTIFY RUSSIA OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE PROJECT OF A FIFTH GENERATION FIGHTER

Russia did not receive notification from the Indian leadership about the release of New Delhi from the joint project to build a fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA), RIA Novosti on Friday at the Eurasia Airshow-2018 air show director of international cooperation and regional policy of the state corporation " Rostekh "(includes in its composition" Rosoboronexport ") Viktor Kladov.

Earlier in some foreign media, information appeared that India had notified Russia of its withdrawal from the joint program for the development of a fifth-generation FGFA fighter that had lasted for the past 11 years. The reason for the refusal was allegedly the inconsistency of the Russian car with the requirements of the Indian Air Force for stealth, avionics, radar and sensors.

At the same time, the publication noted that the Indian Air Force can later return to the consideration of this project or acquire a ready-made fighter of the fifth generation (Su-57, formerly known as PAK FA), after it will be adopted by the Air and Space Forces of the Russian Federation .

Kladov denied information from a number of foreign media outlets, according to which India notified Russia of its withdrawal from this project."I can not comment on the conjectures of foreign journalists, I can only comment on the statements of the sovereign leadership of India, they did not have such statements," Kladov stressed.

"Now in the highest military leadership of India there are disputes about the concept of the Air Force development of the country as a whole: we can develop our fighter, or we can buy ready-made fighters." Let's respect their sovereign right to make this decision, "he said, answering the question about the reasons for delaying the implementation the FGFA project.

[Austin]

Picture of PAK-FA for May Day Fly Past

UAC also released some pictures of 054 and 055 preparing for the event : https://uacrussia.livejournal.com/76829.html

[Philip]

POOF

[Pratyush]

POOF

[Philip]

POOF

[JayS]

No. Until the time IAF formally says that the PAKFA is junked, it is a project on which India has spent $300 million and should be treated separately. Media can say whatever they want.

Let this be the last word on this matter. No more discussion on whether to keep the thread or not is needed I suppose.

[JayS]

The European 5th gen aircraft is very PKFA-ish. Same compromises made.

Interesting config. No HT no canards. Is this official release of the config or just a representative pic...? I would say its the later.

[Indranil]

Official Airbus release. But it may be representative at the moment as Dassault and Airbus have recently decided to join hands. So even if this was the initial thought process, it is likely to evolve.

No canards, but large LEVCons just like the PAKFA.

[rajsunder]

The European 5th gen aircraft is very PKFA-ish. Same compromises made.

Interesting config. No HT no canards. Is this official release of the config or just a representative pic...? I would say its the later.

that is from Airbus presentation

http://www.janes.com/article/75550/airb ... er-concept

Video of the same
http://progressive-eu.assetsadobe.com/a ... -7500k.mp4?

This whole thing looks like PAK FA except for the rear facing radar protrusion between the engines that is present in PAK FA and is missing in the Airbus version

[ShauryaT]

This whole thing looks like PAK FA except for the rear facing radar protrusion between the engines that is present in PAK FA and is missing in the Airbus version

Also, spaces the engines out reducing the concentration of heat thereby lowering IR signatures, especially with their new engines?

[SaiK]

Not stealthy at all.. but somethings we must consider from this platform

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20 ... w-fighterI will

[Philip]

Ck out the Turkish concept by BAe of the US.Where that will go is anybody's guess.

[Zynda]

No deal: Why Russia won't develop an ‘Indian’ Su-57

Russia has refused to reveal the production secrets of fifth-generation jet fighters ‘for free’; India, for its part, has decided that a deal is not appropriate for an aircraft ‘that is not up to being called the fighter plane of the new millennium’.

At the end of April India pulled out of a joint program with Russia to develop the advanced multirole Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) based on the Su-57. India explained its move by saying that the Russian design doesn't meet the stated requirements, while the plane’s Russian-designed combat avionics, radars, and sensors are not up to fifth generation standards.

At the same time, India says that it is prepared to consider revising its plans in the future and even to purchase serially-produced aircraft from Russia if they come out on top in a tender.

So why has India refused to finance the development of the project to design a fifth-generation jet fighter for its Air Force?

The stumbling block

The joint project with India was problematic from the very beginning and, according to experts, the refusal to develop the "Indian" Su-57 has nothing to do with the aircraft's failure to meet the requirements of the new era.

Initially, in 2007, the sides signed a contract under which the Indian side invested to the tune of $300m in the development of the design and technical blueprint for the future aircraft. At the same time, the subsequent cost of research, first prototypes, and development of a full production cycle totaled $6bn, which Russia paid for out of its own budget.

"That is where the disagreements started. Launching production of Su-57 fighters in India meant passing all the technology of the new jet fighters to Delhi. The Indians decided that, since they had invested $300m in a project with a total cost of $6bn, Russia would immediately pass on all its research. But since there was no such clause in the contract, Moscow refused to reveal all the information to the investors," Pavel Bulat, director of the Mechanics and Energy Systems international laboratory at the University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics, told Russia Beyond.

At the same time, following the maiden flight of an experimental prototype in 2010, India said it was ready to purchase 214 FGFAs (the Indian version of the Su-57) but only if they were produced exclusively on Indian territory.

According to Bulat, Russia is prepared to pass on all the technology and reveal the production secrets of the Su-57 jet fighter to India for no less than $5bn. The Indians, in turn, say that for this money they can independently develop a fifth generation fighter from scratch themselves.

"India believes that this would lead to it fully covering the cost of developing the Su-57. Yes, it is true. But the logic of the Sukhoi company is the following: "You don't want to pay $5bn for the technology and production of the world's best jet fighters on your territory? Then develop such an aircraft yourselves. It is that simple," Bulat explained.

The Indians will be able to buy the first serially-produced prototypes from Russia in a year or two when the Sukhoi company develops a full production cycle.

At the same time the arms manufacturers are not hiding the fact that the aircraft still needs a lot of work. Still, in early December 2017 they achieved a breakthrough and got the first Su-57 with a new engine into the air.

What benefits does the new ‘heart’ bring?

After tests, the new engine will allow the Su-57 to accelerate to supersonic speed in dry thrust and maintain this speed for the entire flight.

"It will be traveling at Mach 1.6, which means around 2,600 km/h depending on the nature of the locations being overflown. The engine will also significantly improve the Su-57's low signature thanks to the use of new composite materials," Professor Vadim Kozyulin of the Academy of Military Sciences told Russia Beyond.

He said the designers will be able to fully integrate the engine and work out all the details by about 2020. In addition, the Sukhoi company still has to finish developing the airborne radar and also sort out the remaining intricacies involved in the design of the airframe, which, according to the expert, is the most up-to-date among all existing fifth-generation planes.

[Austin]

IAF Chief view on Chinese Stealth Aircraft in a press conf ( starts at 1 hr 8m2sec )

https://youtu.be/ooE8vLRfvVo?t=1h8m2s

He states Chinese Stealth Aircraft is not a threat and there was no need for IAF to go into panic mode and the Chinese Stealth Aircraft will not be in the same class as Russian FGFA would be

Rafale is needed to take on pakistan F-16 and even chinese J-20/31

Tejas Mk1A will have better BVR and Avionics , Tejas Mk2 take care of Range & other issue

AMCA is in preliminary design phase ,DRDO has yet to freeze the design wont have all bells and whistles at first go but will be developed in phases

[darshhan]

When will we get our $300 million that we invested back? Shouldn't Russians return it?

[sarang]

First Let us get out of the deal officially.

[Kartik]

FWIW

No deal- why Russia won't create Indian Su-57

The stumbling block

The joint project with India was problematic from the very beginning and, according to experts, the refusal to develop the "Indian" Su-57 has nothing to do with the aircraft's failure to meet the requirements of the new era.

Initially, in 2007, the sides signed a contract under which the Indian side invested to the tune of $300m in the development of the design and technical blueprint for the future aircraft. At the same time, the subsequent cost of research, first prototypes, and development of a full production cycle totaled $6bn, which Russia paid for out of its own budget.

"That is where the disagreements started. Launching production of Su-57 fighters in India meant passing all the technology of the new jet fighters to Delhi. The Indians decided that, since they had invested $300m in a project with a total cost of $6bn, Russia would immediately pass on all its research. But since there was no such clause in the contract, Moscow refused to reveal all the information to the investors," Pavel Bulat, director of the Mechanics and Energy Systems international laboratory at the University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics, told Russia Beyond.

At the same time, following the maiden flight of an experimental prototype in 2010, India said it was ready to purchase 214 FGFAs (the Indian version of the Su-57) but only if they were produced exclusively on Indian territory.

According to Bulat, Russia is prepared to pass on all the technology and reveal the production secrets of the Su-57 jet fighter to India for no less than $5bn. The Indians, in turn, say that for this money they can independently develop a fifth generation fighter from scratch themselves.

"India believes that this would lead to it fully covering the cost of developing the Su-57. Yes, it is true. But the logic of the Sukhoi company is the following: "You don't want to pay $5bn for the technology and production of the world's best jet fighters on your territory? Then develop such an aircraft yourselves. It is that simple," Bulat explained.
...

Not sure how seriously to take this article. Perhaps it's just opinions of people not really associated with the program. If true, Moscow tried to make India pay for almost the entire developmental costs of the PAK-FA program. And India rightly so, refused to do so. This is akin to selling the design to India for $5 billion, with minimal to minuscule joint development and then have HAL build it and perhaps allow for some tinkering with the original design.

India will learn a hundred times more by going all in for the AMCA program, designing it from scratch, fixing the issues and taking whatever consultancy or technical support is required from international agencies. True learning happens when you do it yourself, not when you take a 95% complete design and then just add a few things here or there.

[Khalsa]

I actually found the article above to be shedding more light than others.
IMHO lets keep this thread open for a while. The rumours or fact that FGFA is dead seems to be increasing the chatter.

Where else are we going to capture it ?

[Cybaru]

One of things a lot of us said is that Indian establishment is leaning towards pushing Su-57 towards MRCA tender and the restarting of the tender might be due to that. They will have to establish a baseline and let us evaluate for selection process.

Although a beautiful bird, paying for TOT which we will never see doesn't make sense. We will eventually only get assembly rights. Plus them not allowing us to see the bird also seems a little arrogant after paying 300 million USD. They had option to sell 214 birds and remain a dominant player, they screwed up.

I think it makes sense to invite different players for component level participation for AMCA. Someone like Thales-DRDO joint venture for radar/EW (if needed), RR/Safran for making and testing engines in India and so on and so forth.